Increased Childhood Mortality and Arsenic in Drinking Water in Matlab,Bangladesh: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

Arsenic in drinking water was associated with increased risk of all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular death in adults. However, the extent to which exposure is related to all-cause and deaths from cancer and cardiovascular condition in young age is unknown. Therefore, we prospectively assessed whether long-term and recent arsenic exposures are associated with all-cause and cancer and cardiovascular mortalities in Bangladeshi childhood population.

Methods and Findings

We assembled a cohort of 58406 children aged 5–18 years from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System of icddrb in Bangladesh and followed during 2003–2010. There were 185 non-accidental deaths registered in-about 0.4 million person-years of observation. We calculated hazard ratios for cause-specific death in relation to exposure at baseline (µg/L), time-weighted lifetime average (µg/L) and cumulative concentration (µg-years/L). After adjusting covariates, hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause childhood deaths comparing lifetime average exposure 10–50.0, 50.1–150.0, 150.1–300.0 and ≥300.1µg/L were 1.37 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74–2.57), 1.44 (95% CI, 0.88–2.38), 1.22 (95% CI, 0.75–1.98) and 1.88 (95% CI, 1.14–3.10) respectively. Significant increased risk was also observed for baseline (P for trend = 0.023) and cumulative exposure categories (P for trend = 0.036). Girls had higher mortality risk compared to boys (HR for girls 1.79, 1.21, 1.64, 2.31; HR for boys 0.52, 0.53, 1.14, 0.99) in relation to baseline exposure. For all cancers and cardiovascular deaths combined, multivariable adjusted HRs amounted to 1.53 (95% CI 0.51–4.57); 1.29 (95% CI 0.43–3.87); 2.18 (95%CI 1.15–4.16) for 10.0–50.0, 50.1–150.0, and ≥150.1, comparing lowest exposure as reference (P for trend = 0.009). Adolescents had higher mortality risk compared to children (HRs = 1.53, 95% CI 1.03–2.28 vs. HRs = 1.30, 95% CI 0.78–2.17).

Conclusions

Arsenic exposure was associated with substantial increased risk of deaths at young age from all-cause, and cancers and cardiovascular conditions. Girls and adolescents (12–18 years) had higher risk compared to boys and child.     

Biomarker Profiling by Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy for the Prediction of All-Cause Mortality: An Observational Study of 17,345 Persons

Background

Early identification of ambulatory persons at high short-term risk of death could benefit targeted prevention. To identify biomarkers for all-cause mortality and enhance risk prediction, we conducted high-throughput profiling of blood specimens in two large population-based cohorts.

Methods and Findings

106 candidate biomarkers were quantified by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy of non-fasting plasma samples from a random subset of the Estonian Biobank (n = 9,842; age range 18–103 y; 508 deaths during a median of 5.4 y of follow-up). Biomarkers for all-cause mortality were examined using stepwise proportional hazards models. Significant biomarkers were validated and incremental predictive utility assessed in a population-based cohort from Finland (n = 7,503; 176 deaths during 5 y of follow-up). Four circulating biomarkers predicted the risk of all-cause mortality among participants from the Estonian Biobank after adjusting for conventional risk factors: alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (hazard ratio [HR] 1.67 per 1–standard deviation increment, 95% CI 1.53–1.82, p = 5×10⁻³¹), albumin (HR 0.70, 95% CI 0.65–0.76, p = 2×10⁻¹⁸), very-low-density lipoprotein particle size (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.62–0.77, p = 3×10⁻¹²), and citrate (HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.21–1.45, p = 5×10⁻¹⁰). All four biomarkers were predictive of cardiovascular mortality, as well as death from cancer and other nonvascular diseases. One in five participants in the Estonian Biobank cohort with a biomarker summary score within the highest percentile died during the first year of follow-up, indicating prominent systemic reflections of frailty. The biomarker associations all replicated in the Finnish validation cohort. Including the four biomarkers in a risk prediction score improved risk assessment for 5-y mortality (increase in C-statistics 0.031, p = 0.01; continuous reclassification improvement 26.3%, p = 0.001).

Conclusions

Biomarker associations with cardiovascular, nonvascular, and cancer mortality suggest novel systemic connectivities across seemingly disparate morbidities. The biomarker profiling improved prediction of the short-term risk of death from all causes above established risk factors. Further investigations are needed to clarify the biological mechanisms and the utility of these biomarkers for guiding screening and prevention. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Marital status and mortality among middle age and elderly men and women in urban Shanghai

Background

Previous studies have suggested that marital status is associated with mortality, but few studies have been conducted in China where increasing aging population and divorce rates may have major impact on health and total mortality.

Methods

We examined the association of marital status with mortality using data from the Shanghai Women''s Health Study (1996–2009) and Shanghai Men''s Health Study (2002–2009), two population-based cohort studies of 74,942 women aged 40–70 years and 61,500 men aged 40–74 years at the study enrollment. Deaths were identified by biennial home visits and record linkage with the vital statistics registry. Marital status was categorized as married, never married, divorced, widowed, and all unmarried categories combined. Cox regression models were used to derive hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results

Unmarried and widowed women had an increased all-cause HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.21 and HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.20 respectively) and cancer (HR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.32 and HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.34 respectively) mortality. Never married women had excess all-cause mortality (HR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.03, 2.09). Divorce was associated with elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in women (HR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.01, 2.13) and elevated all-cause mortality (HR = 2.45, 95% CI: 1.55, 3.86) in men. Amongst men, not being married was associated with excess all-cause (HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.88) and CVD (HR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.07, 2.54) mortality.

Conclusions

Marriage is associated with decreased all cause mortality and CVD mortality, in particular, among both Chinese men and women.     

Drug-eluting stents in patients with chronic kidney disease: a prospective registry study

Background

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is strongly associated with adverse outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). There are limited data on the effectiveness of drug-eluting stents (DES) in patients with CKD.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Of 3,752 consecutive patients enrolled in the Guthrie PCI Registry between 2001 and 2006, 436 patients with CKD - defined as a creatinine clearance <60 mL/min - were included in this study. Patients who received DES were compared to those who received bare metal stents (BMS). Patients were followed for a mean duration of 3 years after the index PCI to determine the prognostic impact of stent type. Study end-points were all-cause death, myocardial infarction (MI), target vessel revascularization (TVR), stent thrombosis (ST) and the composite of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), defined as death, MI or TVR. Patients receiving DES in our study, by virtue of physician selection, had more stable coronary artery disease and had lower baseline risk of thrombotic or restenotic events. Kaplan-Meier estimates of proportions of patients reaching the end-points were significantly lower for DES vs. BMS for all-cause death (p = 0.0008), TVR (p = 0.029) and MACE (p = 0.0015), but not MI (p = 0.945) or ST (p = 0.88). Multivariable analysis with propensity adjustment demonstrated that DES implantation was an independent predictor of lower rates of all-cause death (hazard ratio [HR] 0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.25–0.92), TVR (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.27–0.94) and MACE (HR 0.62, 95% CI 0.41–0.94).

Conclusions

In a contemporary PCI registry, selective use of DES in patients with CKD was safe and effective in the long term, with lower risk of all-cause death, TVR and MACE and similar risk of MI and ST as compared with BMS. The mortality benefit may be a result of selection bias and residual confounding, or represent a true finding; a hypothesis that warrants clarification by randomized clinical trials.     

Depression as a Risk Factor for Mortality in Individuals with Diabetes: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies

Objective

To quantify the impact of depression measured by self-reports and depression measured by clinical interview on all-cause mortality in individuals with diabetes and to analyze the strength of both associations, the influence of covariates, and possible differences between studies assessing self-rated depressive symptoms and those using a clinical interview to measure depression as predictors of mortality.

Research Design and Methods

PUBMED and PsycINFO were searched up to July 2013 for prospective studies assessing depression, diabetes and mortality. The pooled hazard ratios were calculated using random-effects models.

Results

Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria. After adjustment for demographic variables depression measured by self-reports was associated with an increased all-cause mortality risk (pooled HR = 2.56, 95% CI 1.89–3.47), and the mortality risk remained high after additional adjustment for diabetes complications (HR = 1.76, 95% CI 1.45–2.14,). Six studies reporting adjusted HRs for depression measured by clinical interviews supported the results of the other models (HR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.15–1.93).

Conclusions

Both depression measured by self-report and depression measured by clinical interview have an unfavorable impact on mortality in individuals with diabetes. The results, however, are limited by the heterogeneity of the primary studies. It remains unclear whether self-reports or clinical interviews for depression are the more precise predictor.     

Neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation and mortality: NIH-AARP diet and health study

Purpose

Residing in deprived areas may increase risk of mortality beyond that explained by a person''s own SES-related factors and lifestyle. The aim of this study was to examine the relation between neighborhood socioeconomic deprivation and all-cause, cancer- and cardiovascular disease (CVD)-specific mortality for men and women after accounting for education and other important person-level risk factors.

Methods

In the longitudinal NIH-AARP Study, we analyzed data from healthy participants, ages 50–71 years at study baseline (1995–1996). Deaths (n = 33831) were identified through December 2005. Information on census tracts was obtained from the 2000 US Census. Cox models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for quintiles of neighborhood deprivation.

Results

Participants in the highest quintile of deprivation had elevated risks for overall mortality (HR_men = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.10, 1.24; HR_women = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.22) and marginally increased risk for cancer deaths (HR_men = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.20; HR_women = 1.09, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.22). CVD mortality associations appeared stronger in men (HR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.19, 1.49) than women (HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.38). There was no evidence of an effect modification by education.

Conclusion

Higher neighborhood deprivation was associated with modest increases in all-cause, cancer- and CVD-mortality after accounting for many established risk factors.     

Beta1-Adrenoceptor Polymorphism Predicts Flecainide Action in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

Background

Antiarrhythmic action of flecainide is based on sodium channel blockade. Beta₁-adrenoceptor (β₁AR) activation induces sodium channel inhibition, too. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the impact of different β₁AR genotypes on antiarrhythmic action of flecainide in patients with structural heart disease and atrial fibrillation.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In 145 subjects, 87 with atrial fibrillation, genotyping was performed to identify the individual β₁AR Arg389Gly and Ser49Gly polymorphism. Resting heart rate during atrial fibrillation and success of flecainide-induced cardioversion were correlated with β₁AR genotype. The overall cardioversion rate with flecainide was 39%. The Arg389Arg genotype was associated with the highest cardioversion rate (55.5%; OR 3.30; 95% CI; 1.34–8.13; p = 0.003) compared to patients with Arg389Gly (29.5%; OR 0.44; 95% CI; 0.18–1.06; p = 0.066) and Gly389Gly (14%; OR 0.24; 95% CI 0.03–2.07; p = 0.17) variants. The single Ser49Gly polymorphism did not influence the conversion rate. In combination, patients with Arg389Gly-Ser49Gly genotype displayed the lowest conversion rate with 20.8% (OR 0.31; 95% CI; 0.10–0.93; p = 0.03). In patients with Arg389Arg variants the heart rate during atrial fibrillation was significantly higher (110±2.7 bpm; p = 0.03 vs. other variants) compared to Arg389Gly (104.8±2.4 bpm) and Gly389Gly (96.9±5.8 bpm) carriers. The Arg389Gly-Ser49Gly genotype was more common in patients with atrial fibrillation compared to patients without atrial fibrillation (27.6% vs. 5.2%; HR 6.98; 95% CI; 1.99–24.46; p<0.001).

Conclusions

The β₁AR Arg389Arg genotype is associated with increased flecainide potency and higher heart rate during atrial fibrillation. The Arg389Gly-Ser49Gly genotype might be of predictive value for atrial fibrillation.     

Prehypertension Is Not Associated with All-Cause Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prospective Studies

Objectives

Quantitative associations between prehypertension or its two separate blood pressure (BP) ranges and cardiovascular disease (CVD) or all-cause mortality have not been reliably documented. In this study, we performed a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis to assess these relationships from prospective cohort studies.

Methods

We conducted a comprehensive search of PubMed (1966-June 2012) and the Cochrane Library (1988-June 2012) without language restrictions. This was supplemented by review of the references in the included studies and relevant reviews identified in the search. Prospective studies were included if they reported multivariate-adjusted relative risks (RRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of CVD or all-cause mortality with respect to prehypertension or its two BP ranges (low range: 120–129/80–84 mmHg; high range: 130–139/85–89 mmHg) at baseline. Pooled RRs were estimated using a random-effects model or a fixed-effects model depending on the between-study heterogeneity.

Results

Thirteen studies met our inclusion criteria, with 870,678 participants. Prehypertension was not associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality either in the whole prehypertension group (RR: 1.03; 95% CI: 0.91 to 1.15, P = 0.667) or in its two separate BP ranges (low-range: RR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.81 to 1.02, P = 0.107; high range: RR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.95 to 1.06, P = 0.951). Prehypertension was significantly associated with a greater risk of CVD mortality (RR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.16 to 1.50, P<0.001). When analyzed separately by two BP ranges, only high range prehypertension was related to an increased risk of CVD mortality (low-range: RR: 1.10; 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.30, P = 0.287; high range: RR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.13 to 1.41, P<0.001).

Conclusions

From the best available prospective data, prehypertension was not associated with all-cause mortality. More high quality cohort studies stratified by BP range are needed.     

Developmental Model of Depression Applied to Prenatal Depression: Role of Present and Past Life Events,Past Emotional Disorders and Pregnancy Stress

Background

Several risk factors for depression during pregnancy have already been established. However, very few studies have conducted a multivariate analysis incorporating both the major predictors of depression in women, in accordance with comprehensive developmental models of depression, and specific stressors associated with the biological and psychosocial state of the mother-to-be.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used a cross-sectional cohort design to analyze the associations between prenatal depression and potential risk factors. 693 French-speaking women with singleton pregnancies at 20–28 weeks'' gestation were consecutively recruited at Caen University Hospital. Fifty women with missing values were subsequently excluded from the analysis. Depressive symptoms were assessed on the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. Risk factors were either extracted from the computerized obstetric records or assessed by means of self-administered questionnaires. The associations between prenatal depression and the potential risk factors were assessed using log-binomial regression models to obtain a direct estimate of relative risk (RR). The following factors were found to be significant in the multivariate analysis: level of education (p<0.001), past psychiatric history (adjusted RR = 1.8, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1;2.8, p = 0.014), stress related to the health and viability of the fetus (adjusted RR = 2.6, 95% CI: 1.6;4.1, p<0.001), and stress related to severe marital conflicts (adjusted RR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.5;3.9, p<0.001) or to serious difficulties at work (adjusted RR = 1.6, 95% CI :1.04;2.4, p = 0.031). An association was also found with the previous delivery of a child with a major or minor birth defect (adjusted RR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.04;4.0, p = 0.038). Univariate analyses revealed a strong association with childhood adversity (parental rejection: RR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.2;2.8, p = 0.0055 and family secrets: RR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.2;3.1, p = 0.0046) and with lack of partner support (RR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.30;0.84, p = 0.0086).

Conclusions/Significance

Our study identifies several risk factors that could easily be assessed in clinical practice. It draws attention to the impact of previously delivering a child with a birth defect. The association with childhood adversity warrants further study.     

Health behaviours, socioeconomic status, and mortality: further analyses of the British Whitehall II and the French GAZEL prospective cohorts

Background

Differences in morbidity and mortality between socioeconomic groups constitute one of the most consistent findings of epidemiologic research. However, research on social inequalities in health has yet to provide a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms underlying this association. In recent analysis, we showed health behaviours, assessed longitudinally over the follow-up, to explain a major proportion of the association of socioeconomic status (SES) with mortality in the British Whitehall II study. However, whether health behaviours are equally important mediators of the SES-mortality association in different cultural settings remains unknown. In the present paper, we examine this issue in Whitehall II and another prospective European cohort, the French GAZEL study.

Methods and Findings

We included 9,771 participants from the Whitehall II study and 17,760 from the GAZEL study. Over the follow-up (mean 19.5 y in Whitehall II and 16.5 y in GAZEL), health behaviours (smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, and physical activity), were assessed longitudinally. Occupation (in the main analysis), education, and income (supplementary analysis) were the markers of SES. The socioeconomic gradient in smoking was greater (p<0.001) in Whitehall II (odds ratio [OR]  = 3.68, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.11–4.36) than in GAZEL (OR  = 1.33, 95% CI 1.18–1.49); this was also true for unhealthy diet (OR  = 7.42, 95% CI 5.19–10.60 in Whitehall II and OR  = 1.31, 95% CI 1.15–1.49 in GAZEL, p<0.001). Socioeconomic differences in mortality were similar in the two cohorts, a hazard ratio of 1.62 (95% CI 1.28–2.05) in Whitehall II and 1.94 in GAZEL (95% CI 1.58–2.39) for lowest versus highest occupational position. Health behaviours attenuated the association of SES with mortality by 75% (95% CI 44%–149%) in Whitehall II but only by 19% (95% CI 13%–29%) in GAZEL. Analysis using education and income yielded similar results.

Conclusions

Health behaviours were strong predictors of mortality in both cohorts but their association with SES was remarkably different. Thus, health behaviours are likely to be major contributors of socioeconomic differences in health only in contexts with a marked social characterisation of health behaviours. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Use of the Delta Neutrophil Index as a Prognostic Factor of Mortality in Patients with Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis: Implications of a Simple and Useful Marker

Background

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a common and life-threatening infection in patients with advanced cirrhosis. The prognostic value of a novel marker, the delta neutrophil index (DNI), was investigated relative to mortality in patients with SBP.

Materials & Methods

Seventy-five patients with SBP were studied from April 2010 to May 2012. DNI at initial diagnosis of SBP was determined and compared with 30-day mortality rates.

Results

Of the patients, 87.7% were men, and the median age of all patients was 59.0 yrs. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve of DNI for 30-day mortality was 0.701 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.553–0.849; p = 0.009), which was higher than that of C-reactive protein (0.640, 95% CI, 0.494–0.786; p = 0.076) or the model for end-stage liver disease score (0.592, 95% CI, 0.436–0.748; p = 0.235). From the ROC curve, with the sum of sensitivity and specificity, the cutoff value of DNI was determined to be 5.7%. In the high-DNI group (DNI ≥5.7%), septic shock and 30-day mortality were more prevalent compared with the low-DNI group (84.2% vs. 48.2%, p = 0.007; 57.9% vs. 14.3%, p<0.001, respectively). Patients with an elevated DNI had a higher risk of 30-day mortality compared with those with a low DNI (4.225, 95% CI, 1.631–10.949; p = 0.003).

Conclusion

A higher DNI at the time of SBP diagnosis is an independent predictor of 30-day mortality in patients with SBP.     

Fluctuation of Serum Sodium and Its Impact on Short and Long-Term Mortality following Acute Pulmonary Embolism

Background

Baseline hyponatremia predicts acute mortality following pulmonary embolism (PE). The natural history of serum sodium levels after PE and the relevance to acute and long-term mortality after the PE is unknown.

Methods

Clinical details of all patients (n = 1023) admitted to a tertiary institution from 2000–2007 with acute PE were retrieved retrospectively. Serum sodium results from days 1, 3–4, 5–6, and 7 of admission were pre-specified and recorded. We excluded 250 patients without day-1 sodium or had <1 subsequent sodium assessment, leaving 773 patients as the studied cohort. There were 605 patients with normonatremia (sodium≥135 mmol/L throughout admission), 57 with corrected hyponatremia (day-1 sodium<135 mmol/L, then normalized), 54 with acquired hyponatremia and 57 with persistent hyponatremia. Patients’ outcomes were tracked from a state-wide death registry and analyses performed using multivariate-regression modelling.

Results

Mean (±standard deviation) day-1 sodium was 138.2±4.3 mmol/L. Total mortality (mean follow-up 3.6±2.5 years) was 38.8% (in-hospital mortality 3.2%). There was no survival difference between studied (n = 773) and excluded (n = 250) patients. Day-1 sodium (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.89, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83–0.95, p = 0.001) predicted in-hospital death. Relative to normonatremia, corrected hyponatremia increased the risk of in-hospital death 3.6-fold (95% CI 1.20–10.9, p = 0.02) and persistent hyponatremia increased the risk 5.6-fold (95% CI 2.08–15.0, p = 0.001). Patients with either persisting or acquired hyponatremia had worse long-term survival than those who had corrected hyponatremia or had been normonatremic throughout (aHR 1.47, 95% CI 1.06–2.03, p = 0.02).

Conclusion

Sodium fluctuations after acute PE predict acute and long-term outcome. Factors mediating the correction of hyponatremia following acute PE warrant further investigation.     

Physical Activity Attenuates the Genetic Predisposition to Obesity in 20,000 Men and Women from EPIC-Norfolk Prospective Population Study

Background

We have previously shown that multiple genetic loci identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) increase the susceptibility to obesity in a cumulative manner. It is, however, not known whether and to what extent this genetic susceptibility may be attenuated by a physically active lifestyle. We aimed to assess the influence of a physically active lifestyle on the genetic predisposition to obesity in a large population-based study.

Methods and Findings

We genotyped 12 SNPs in obesity-susceptibility loci in a population-based sample of 20,430 individuals (aged 39–79 y) from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort with an average follow-up period of 3.6 y. A genetic predisposition score was calculated for each individual by adding the body mass index (BMI)-increasing alleles across the 12 SNPs. Physical activity was assessed using a self-administered questionnaire. Linear and logistic regression models were used to examine main effects of the genetic predisposition score and its interaction with physical activity on BMI/obesity risk and BMI change over time, assuming an additive effect for each additional BMI-increasing allele carried. Each additional BMI-increasing allele was associated with 0.154 (standard error [SE] 0.012) kg/m² (p = 6.73×10⁻³⁷) increase in BMI (equivalent to 445 g in body weight for a person 1.70 m tall). This association was significantly (p _interaction = 0.005) more pronounced in inactive people (0.205 [SE 0.024] kg/m² [p = 3.62×10⁻¹⁸; 592 g in weight]) than in active people (0.131 [SE 0.014] kg/m² [p = 7.97×10⁻²¹; 379 g in weight]). Similarly, each additional BMI-increasing allele increased the risk of obesity 1.116-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.093–1.139, p = 3.37×10⁻²⁶) in the whole population, but significantly (p _interaction = 0.015) more in inactive individuals (odds ratio [OR] = 1.158 [95% CI 1.118–1.199; p = 1.93×10⁻¹⁶]) than in active individuals (OR = 1.095 (95% CI 1.068–1.123; p = 1.15×10⁻¹²]). Consistent with the cross-sectional observations, physical activity modified the association between the genetic predisposition score and change in BMI during follow-up (p _interaction = 0.028).

Conclusions

Our study shows that living a physically active lifestyle is associated with a 40% reduction in the genetic predisposition to common obesity, as estimated by the number of risk alleles carried for any of the 12 recently GWAS-identified loci. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Impact of Community-Based Maternal Health Workers on Coverage of Essential Maternal Health Interventions among Internally Displaced Communities in Eastern Burma: The MOM Project

Background

Access to essential maternal and reproductive health care is poor throughout Burma, but is particularly lacking among internally displaced communities in the eastern border regions. In such settings, innovative strategies for accessing vulnerable populations and delivering basic public health interventions are urgently needed.

Methods

Four ethnic health organizations from the Shan, Mon, Karen, and Karenni regions collaborated on a pilot project between 2005 and 2008 to examine the feasibility of an innovative three-tiered network of community-based providers for delivery of maternal health interventions in the complex emergency setting of eastern Burma. Two-stage cluster-sampling surveys among ever-married women of reproductive age (15–45 y) conducted before and after program implementation enabled evaluation of changes in coverage of essential antenatal care interventions, attendance at birth by those trained to manage complications, postnatal care, and family planning services.

Results

Among 2,889 and 2,442 women of reproductive age in 2006 and 2008, respectively, population characteristics (age, marital status, ethnic distribution, literacy) were similar. Compared to baseline, women whose most recent pregnancy occurred during the implementation period were substantially more likely to receive antenatal care (71.8% versus 39.3%, prevalence rate ratio [PRR] = 1.83 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.64–2.04]) and specific interventions such as urine testing (42.4% versus 15.7%, PRR = 2.69 [95% CI 2.69–3.54]), malaria screening (55.9% versus 21.9%, PRR = 2.88 [95% CI 2.15–3.85]), and deworming (58.2% versus 4.1%, PRR = 14.18 [95% CI 10.76–18.71]. Postnatal care visits within 7 d doubled. Use of modern methods to avoid pregnancy increased from 23.9% to 45.0% (PRR = 1.88 [95% CI 1.63–2.17]), and unmet need for contraception was reduced from 61.7% to 40.5%, a relative reduction of 35% (95% CI 28%–40%). Attendance at birth by those trained to deliver elements of emergency obstetric care increased almost 10-fold, from 5.1% to 48.7% (PRR = 9.55 [95% CI 7.21–12.64]).

Conclusions

Coverage of maternal health interventions and higher-level care at birth was substantially higher during the project period. The MOM Project''s focus on task-shifting, capacity building, and empowerment at the community level might serve as a model approach for similarly constrained settings. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Reappraisal of Metformin Efficacy in the Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes: A Meta-Analysis of Randomised Controlled Trials

Background

The UK Prospective Diabetes Study showed that metformin decreases mortality compared to diet alone in overweight patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Since then, it has been the first-line treatment in overweight patients with type 2 diabetes. However, metformin-sulphonylurea bitherapy may increase mortality.

Methods and Findings

This meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials evaluated metformin efficacy (in studies of metformin versus diet alone, versus placebo, and versus no treatment; metformin as an add-on therapy; and metformin withdrawal) against cardiovascular morbidity or mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes. We searched Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane database. Primary end points were all-cause mortality and cardiovascular death. Secondary end points included all myocardial infarctions, all strokes, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, leg amputations, and microvascular complications. Thirteen randomised controlled trials (13,110 patients) were retrieved; 9,560 patients were given metformin, and 3,550 patients were given conventional treatment or placebo. Metformin did not significantly affect the primary outcomes all-cause mortality, risk ratio (RR) = 0.99 (95% CI: 0.75 to 1.31), and cardiovascular mortality, RR = 1.05 (95% CI: 0.67 to 1.64). The secondary outcomes were also unaffected by metformin treatment: all myocardial infarctions, RR = 0.90 (95% CI: 0.74 to 1.09); all strokes, RR = 0.76 (95% CI: 0.51 to 1.14); heart failure, RR = 1.03 (95% CI: 0.67 to 1.59); peripheral vascular disease, RR = 0.90 (95% CI: 0.46 to 1.78); leg amputations, RR = 1.04 (95% CI: 0.44 to 2.44); and microvascular complications, RR = 0.83 (95% CI: 0.59 to 1.17). For all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality, there was significant heterogeneity when including the UK Prospective Diabetes Study subgroups (I ² = 41% and 59%). There was significant interaction with sulphonylurea as a concomitant treatment for myocardial infarction (p = 0.10 and 0.02, respectively).

Conclusions

Although metformin is considered the gold standard, its benefit/risk ratio remains uncertain. We cannot exclude a 25% reduction or a 31% increase in all-cause mortality. We cannot exclude a 33% reduction or a 64% increase in cardiovascular mortality. Further studies are needed to clarify this situation. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Malnutrition and Mortality Patterns among Internally Displaced and Non-Displaced Population Living in a Camp,a Village or a Town in Eastern Chad

Background

Certain population groups have been rendered vulnerable in Chad because of displacement of more than 200,000 people over the last three years as a result of mass violence against civilians in the east of the country. The objective of the study was to assess mortality and nutritional patterns among displaced and non-displaced population living in camps, villages and a town in the Ouddaï and Salamat regions of Chad.

Methodology

Between May and October 2007, two stage, 30-cluster household surveys were conducted among 43,900 internally displaced persons (IDPs) living in camps in Ouaddai region (n = 898 households), among 19,400 non-displaced persons (NDPs) living in 42 villages in Ouaddai region (n = 900 households) and among 17,000 NDPs living in a small town in Salamat region (n = 901 households). Data collection included anthropometric measurements, measles vaccination rates and retrospective mortality. Crude mortality rate (CMR), mortality rate among children younger than 5 years (U5MR), causes of death and the prevalence of wasting (weight-for-height z score <−2) among children aged 6 to 59 months were the main outcome measures.

Conclusions

The CMR among the 4902 IDPs in Gozbeida camps, 4477 NDPs living in a village and 4073 NDPs living in a town surveyed was 1.8 (95% CI, 1.2–2.8), 0.3 (95% CI, 0.2–0.4), 0.3 (95% CI, 0.2–0.5) per 10,000 per day, respectively. The U5MR in a camp (n = 904), a village (n = 956) and a town (n = 901) was 4.1 (95% CI, 2.1–7.7), 0.5 (95% CI, 0.3–0.9) and 0.7 (95% CI, 0.4–1.4) per 10,000 per day, respectively. Diarrhoea was reported to be the main cause of death. Acute malnutrition rates (according to the WHO definition) among 904 IDP children, 956 NDPs children living in a village, 901 NDP children living in a town aged 6 to 59 months were 20.6% (95% CI, 17.9%–23.3%), 16.4% (95% CI, 14.0%–18.8%) and 10.1% (95% CI, 8.1%–12.2%) respectively. The study found a high mortality rate among IDPs and an elevated prevalence of wasting not only in IDP camps but also in villages located in the same region. The town-dweller population remains at risk of malnutrition. Appropriate contingency plans need to be made to ensure acceptable living standards for these populations.     

The Effect of Age and NT-proBNP on the Association of Central Obesity with 6-Years Cardiovascular Mortality of Middle-Aged and Elderly Diabetic People: The Population-Based Casale Monferrato Study

Background

Among people with type 2 diabetes the relationship between central obesity and cardiovascular mortality has not been definitely assessed. Moreover, NT-proBNP is negatively associated with central obesity, but no study has examined their combined effect on survival. We have examined these issues in a well-characterized population-based cohort.

Methods and Findings

Survival data of 2272 diabetic people recruited in 2000 who had no other chronic disease have been updated to 31 December 2006. NT-proBNP was measured in a subgroup of 1690 patients. Cox proportional hazards modeling was employed to estimate the independent associations between cardiovascular and all-cause mortality and waist circumference. Mean age was 67.9 years, 49.3% were men. Both age and NT-proBNP were negatively correlated with waist circumference (r = −0.11, p<0.001 and r = −0.07, p = 0.002). Out of 2272 subjects, 520 deaths (221 for CV mortality) occurred during a median follow-up of 5.4 years. Central obesity was not associated with CV mortality (hazard ratio, HR, adjusted for age, sex, diabetes duration, 1.14, 95% CI 0.86–1.52). NTproBNP was a negative confounder and age a strong modifier of this relationship (p for interaction<0.001): age<70 years, fully adjusted model HR = 3.52 (1.17–10.57) and age ≥70 years, HR = 0.80 (0.46–1.40). Respective HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.86 (1.03–3.32) and 0.73 (0.51–1.04).

Conclusions

In diabetic people aged 70 years and lower, central obesity was independently associated with increased cardiovascular mortality, independently of the negative effect of NT-proBNP. In contrast, no effect on 6-years survival was evident in diabetic people who have yet survived up to 70 years.     

Does Simplicity Compromise Accuracy in ACS Risk Prediction? A Retrospective Analysis of the TIMI and GRACE Risk Scores

Background

The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk scores for Unstable Angina/Non-ST–elevation myocardial infarction (UA/NSTEMI) and ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk scores for in-hospital and 6-month mortality are established tools for assessing risk in Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) patients. The objective of our study was to compare the discriminative abilities of the TIMI and GRACE risk scores in a broad-spectrum, unselected ACS population and to assess the relative contributions of model simplicity and model composition to any observed differences between the two scoring systems.

Methodology/Principal Findings

ACS patients admitted to the University of Michigan between 1999 and 2005 were divided into UA/NSTEMI (n = 2753) and STEMI (n = 698) subpopulations. The predictive abilities of the TIMI and GRACE scores for in-hospital and 6-month mortality were assessed by calibration and discrimination. There were 137 in-hospital deaths (4%), and among the survivors, 234 (7.4%) died by 6 months post-discharge. In the UA/NSTEMI population, the GRACE risk scores demonstrated better discrimination than the TIMI UA/NSTEMI score for in-hospital (C = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.81–0.89, versus 0.54, 95% CI: 0.48–0.60; p<0.01) and 6-month (C = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.76–0.83, versus 0.56, 95% CI: 0.52–0.60; p<0.01) mortality. Among STEMI patients, the GRACE and TIMI STEMI scores demonstrated comparably excellent discrimination for in-hospital (C = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78–0.90 versus 0.83, 95% CI: 0.78–0.89; p = 0.83) and 6-month (C = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.63–0.81, versus 0.71, 95% CI: 0.64–0.79; p = 0.79) mortality. An analysis of refitted multivariate models demonstrated a marked improvement in the discriminative power of the TIMI UA/NSTEMI model with the incorporation of heart failure and hemodynamic variables. Study limitations included unaccounted for confounders inherent to observational, single institution studies with moderate sample sizes.

Conclusions/Significance

The GRACE scores provided superior discrimination as compared with the TIMI UA/NSTEMI score in predicting in-hospital and 6-month mortality in UA/NSTEMI patients, although the GRACE and TIMI STEMI scores performed equally well in STEMI patients. The observed discriminative deficit of the TIMI UA/NSTEMI score likely results from the omission of key risk factors rather than from the relative simplicity of the scoring system.     

Reaction Time and Mortality from the Major Causes of Death: The NHANES-III Study

Objective

Studies examining the relation of information processing speed, as measured by reaction time, with mortality are scarce. We explored these associations in a representative sample of the US population.

Methods

Participants were 5,134 adults (2,342 men) aged 20–59 years from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III, 1988–94).

Results

Adjusted for age, sex, and ethnic minority status, a 1 SD slower reaction time was associated with a raised risk of mortality from all-causes (HR = 1.25, 95% CI 1.12, 1.39) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) (HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.17, 1.58). Having 1 SD more variable reaction time was also associated with greater risk of all-cause (HR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.19, 1.55) and CVD (HR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.33, 1.70) mortality. No associations were observed for cancer mortality. The magnitude of the relationships was comparable in size to established risk factors in this dataset, such as smoking.

Interpretation

Alongside better-established risk factors, reaction time is associated with increased risk of premature death and cardiovascular disease. It is a candidate risk factor for all-cause and cause-specific mortality.     

The Impact of SYNTAX Score of Non-Infarct-Related Artery on Long- Term Outcome among Patients with Acute ST Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction Undergoing Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

Objective

We investigated the impact of the severity of stenosis in a non-infarct-related artery (IRA) on the long-term prognosis of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

Methods

Three hundred one consecutive patients (age: 59.7 ± 13.2 years, 85.5% men) underwent primary PCI during 2009–2012. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis found the optimal cutoff for non-IRA SYNTAX score (SS) to be 2.5. We divided the patients into two groups according to this cutoff value.

Results

By multivariable analysis, non-IRA SS (≥2.5) was an independent predictor of major adverse cardiac events (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.15, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.21–3.79, P  =  0.008) and all-cause mortality (HR: 3.49, 95% CI: 1.13–10.8, P  =  0.03). However, the prediction of cardiovascular mortality had only borderline significance (HR: 3.29, 95% CI: 0.90–12.08, P  =  0.07).

Conclusion

STEMI patients treated with primary PCI and moderate to severe non-IRA stenosis (SS ≥2.5) have more subsequent cardiac events. Those populations should be treated with more aggressive preventive and medical management.