Socio-Economic and Cultural Determinants of Human African Trypanosomiasis at the Kenya – Uganda Transboundary

Background

Kenya and Uganda have reported different Human African Trypanosomiasis incidences in the past more than three decades, with the latter recording more cases. This cross-sectional study assessed the demographic characteristics, tsetse and trypanosomiasis control practices, socio-economic and cultural risk factors influencing Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense (T.b.r.) infection in Teso and Busia Districts, Western Kenya and Tororo and Busia Districts, Southeast Uganda. A conceptual framework was postulated to explain interactions of various socio-economic, cultural and tsetse control factors that predispose individuals and populations to HAT.

Methods

A cross-sectional household survey was conducted between April and October 2008. Four administrative districts reporting T.b.r and lying adjacent to each other at the international boundary of Kenya and Uganda were purposely selected. Household data collection was carried out in two villages that had experienced HAT and one other village that had no reported HAT case from 1977 to 2008 in each district. A structured questionnaire was administered to 384 randomly selected household heads or their representatives in each country. The percent of respondents giving a specific answer was reported. Secondary data was also obtained on socio-economic and political issues in both countries.

Results

Inadequate knowledge on the disease cycle and intervention measures contributed considerable barriers to HAT, and more so in Uganda than in Kenya. Gender-associated socio-cultural practices greatly predisposed individuals to HAT. Pesticides-based crop husbandry in the 1970''s reportedly reduced vector population while vegetation of coffee and banana''s and livestock husbandry directly increased occurrence of HAT. Livestock husbandry practices in the villages were strong predictors of HAT incidence. The residents in Kenya (6.7%) applied chemoprophylaxis and chemotherapeutic controls against trypanosomiasis to a larger extent than Uganda (2.1%).

Conclusion

Knowledge on tsetse and its control methods, culture, farming practice, demographic and socio-economic variables explained occurrence of HAT better than landscape features.     

Explaining the Host-Finding Behavior of Blood-Sucking Insects: Computerized Simulation of the Effects of Habitat Geometry on Tsetse Fly Movement

Background

Male and female tsetse flies feed exclusively on vertebrate blood. While doing so they can transmit the diseases of sleeping sickness in humans and nagana in domestic stock. Knowledge of the host-orientated behavior of tsetse is important in designing bait methods of sampling and controlling the flies, and in understanding the epidemiology of the diseases. For this we must explain several puzzling distinctions in the behavior of the different sexes and species of tsetse. For example, why is it that the species occupying savannahs, unlike those of riverine habitats, appear strongly responsive to odor, rely mainly on large hosts, are repelled by humans, and are often shy of alighting on baits?

Methodology/Principal Findings

A deterministic model that simulated fly mobility and host-finding success suggested that the behavioral distinctions between riverine, savannah and forest tsetse are due largely to habitat size and shape, and the extent to which dense bushes limit occupiable space within the habitats. These factors seemed effective primarily because they affect the daily displacement of tsetse, reducing it by up to ∼70%. Sex differences in behavior are explicable by females being larger and more mobile than males.

Conclusion/Significance

Habitat geometry and fly size provide a framework that can unify much of the behavior of all sexes and species of tsetse everywhere. The general expectation is that relatively immobile insects in restricted habitats tend to be less responsive to host odors and more catholic in their diet. This has profound implications for the optimization of bait technology for tsetse, mosquitoes, black flies and tabanids, and for the epidemiology of the diseases they transmit.     

An Investigation into the Protein Composition of the Teneral Glossina morsitans morsitans Peritrophic Matrix

Background

Tsetse flies serve as biological vectors for several species of African trypanosomes. In order to survive, proliferate and establish a midgut infection, trypanosomes must cross the tsetse fly peritrophic matrix (PM), which is an acellular gut lining surrounding the blood meal. Crossing of this multi-layered structure occurs at least twice during parasite migration and development, but the mechanism of how trypanosomes do so is not understood. In order to better comprehend the molecular events surrounding trypanosome penetration of the tsetse PM, a mass spectrometry-based approach was applied to investigate the PM protein composition using Glossina morsitans morsitans as a model organism.

Methods

PMs from male teneral (young, unfed) flies were dissected, solubilised in urea/SDS buffer and the proteins precipitated with cold acetone/TCA. The PM proteins were either subjected to an in-solution tryptic digestion or fractionated on 1D SDS-PAGE, and the resulting bands digested using trypsin. The tryptic fragments from both preparations were purified and analysed by LC-MS/MS.

Results

Overall, nearly 300 proteins were identified from both analyses, several of those containing signature Chitin Binding Domains (CBD), including novel peritrophins and peritrophin-like glycoproteins, which are essential in maintaining PM architecture and may act as trypanosome adhesins. Furthermore, 27 proteins from the tsetse secondary endosymbiont, Sodalis glossinidius, were also identified, suggesting this bacterium is probably in close association with the tsetse PM.

Conclusion

To our knowledge this is the first report on the protein composition of teneral G. m. morsitans, an important vector of African trypanosomes. Further functional analyses of these proteins will lead to a better understanding of the tsetse physiology and may help identify potential molecular targets to block trypanosome development within the tsetse.     

Population vulnerability and disability in Kenya's tsetse fly habitats

Background

Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT), also referred to as sleeping sickness, and African Animal Trypanosomaisis (AAT), known as nagana, are highly prevalent parasitic vector-borne diseases in sub-Saharan Africa. Humans acquire trypanosomiasis following the bite of a tsetse fly infected with the protozoa Trypanosoma brucei (T.b.) spp. –i.e., T.b. gambiense in West and Central Africa and T.b. rhodesiense in East and Southern Africa. Over the last decade HAT diagnostic capacity to estimate HAT prevalence has improved in active case-finding areas but enhanced passive surveillance programs are still lacking in much of rural sub-Saharan Africa.

Methodology/Principal Findings

This retrospective-cross-sectional study examined the use of national census data (1999) to estimate population vulnerability and disability in Kenya''s 7 tsetse belts to assess the potential of HAT-acquired infection in those areas. A multilevel study design estimated the likelihood of disability in individuals, nested within households, nested within tsetse fly habitats of varying levels of poverty. Residents and recent migrants of working age were studied. Tsetse fly''s impact on disability was conceptualised via two exposure pathways: directly from the bite of a pathogenic tsetse fly resulting in HAT infection or indirectly, as the potential for AAT takes land out of agricultural production and diseased livestock leads to livestock morbidity and mortality, contributing to nutritional deficiencies and poverty. Tsetse belts that were significantly associated with increased disability prevalence were identified and the direct and indirect exposure pathways were evaluated.

Conclusions/Significance

Incorporating reports on disability from the national census is a promising surveillance tool that may enhance future HAT surveillance programs in sub-Saharan Africa. The combined burdens of HAT and AAT and the opportunity costs of agricultural production in AAT areas are likely contributors to disability within tsetse-infested areas. Future research will assess changes in the spatial relationships between high tsetse infestation and human disability following the release of the Kenya 2009 census at the local level.     

Estimating HIV incidence among adults in Kenya and Uganda: a systematic comparison of multiple methods

Background

Several approaches have been used for measuring HIV incidence in large areas, yet each presents specific challenges in incidence estimation.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We present a comparison of incidence estimates for Kenya and Uganda using multiple methods: 1) Epidemic Projections Package (EPP) and Spectrum models fitted to HIV prevalence from antenatal clinics (ANC) and national population-based surveys (NPS) in Kenya (2003, 2007) and Uganda (2004/2005); 2) a survey-derived model to infer age-specific incidence between two sequential NPS; 3) an assay-derived measurement in NPS using the BED IgG capture enzyme immunoassay, adjusted for misclassification using a locally derived false-recent rate (FRR) for the assay; (4) community cohorts in Uganda; (5) prevalence trends in young ANC attendees. EPP/Spectrum-derived and survey-derived modeled estimates were similar: 0.67 [uncertainty range: 0.60, 0.74] and 0.6 [confidence interval: (CI) 0.4, 0.9], respectively, for Uganda (2005) and 0.72 [uncertainty range: 0.70, 0.74] and 0.7 [CI 0.3, 1.1], respectively, for Kenya (2007). Using a local FRR, assay-derived incidence estimates were 0.3 [CI 0.0, 0.9] for Uganda (2004/2005) and 0.6 [CI 0, 1.3] for Kenya (2007). Incidence trends were similar for all methods for both Uganda and Kenya.

Conclusions/Significance

Triangulation of methods is recommended to determine best-supported estimates of incidence to guide programs. Assay-derived incidence estimates are sensitive to the level of the assay''s FRR, and uncertainty around high FRRs can significantly impact the validity of the estimate. Systematic evaluations of new and existing incidence assays are needed to the study the level, distribution, and determinants of the FRR to guide whether incidence assays can produce reliable estimates of national HIV incidence.     

Bayesian classification and regression trees for predicting incidence of cryptosporidiosis

Background

Classification and regression tree (CART) models are tree-based exploratory data analysis methods which have been shown to be very useful in identifying and estimating complex hierarchical relationships in ecological and medical contexts. In this paper, a Bayesian CART model is described and applied to the problem of modelling the cryptosporidiosis infection in Queensland, Australia.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We compared the results of a Bayesian CART model with those obtained using a Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. Overall, the analyses indicated that the nature and magnitude of the effect estimates were similar for the two methods in this study, but the CART model more easily accommodated higher order interaction effects.

Conclusions/Significance

A Bayesian CART model for identification and estimation of the spatial distribution of disease risk is useful in monitoring and assessment of infectious diseases prevention and control.     

Potential Benefits of Second-Generation Human Papillomavirus Vaccines

Background

Current prophylactic vaccines against human papillomavirus (HPV) target two oncogenic types (16 and 18) that contribute to 70% of cervical cancer cases worldwide. Our objective was to quantify the range of additional benefits conferred by second-generation HPV prophylactic vaccines that are expected to expand protection to five additional oncogenic types (31, 33, 45, 52 and 58).

Methods

A microsimulation model of HPV and cervical cancer calibrated to epidemiological data from two countries (Kenya and Uganda) was used to estimate reductions in lifetime risk of cervical cancer from the second-generation HPV vaccines. We explored the independent and joint impact of uncertain factors (i.e., distribution of HPV types, co-infection with multiple HPV types, and unidentifiable HPV types in cancer) and vaccine properties (i.e., cross-protection against non-targeted HPV types), compared against currently-available vaccines.

Results

Assuming complete uptake of the second-generation vaccine, reductions in lifetime cancer risk were 86.3% in Kenya and 91.8% in Uganda, representing an absolute increase in cervical cancer reduction of 26.1% in Kenya and 17.9% in Uganda, compared with complete uptake of current vaccines. The range of added benefits was 19.6% to 29.1% in Kenya and 14.0% to 19.5% in Uganda, depending on assumptions of cancers attributable to multiple HPV infections and unidentifiable HPV types. These effects were blunted in both countries when assuming vaccine cross-protection with both the current and second-generation vaccines.

Conclusion

Second-generation HPV vaccines that protect against additional oncogenic HPV types have the potential to improve cervical cancer prevention. Co-infection with multiple HPV infections and unidentifiable HPV types can influence vaccine effectiveness, but the magnitude of effect may be moderated by vaccine cross-protective effects. These benefits must be weighed against the cost of the vaccines in future analyses.     

A Neglected Aspect of the Epidemiology of Sleeping Sickness: The Propensity of the Tsetse Fly Vector to Enter Houses

Background

When taking a bloodmeal from humans, tsetse flies can transmit the trypanosomes responsible for sleeping sickness, or human African trypanosomiasis. While it is commonly assumed that humans must enter the normal woodland habitat of the tsetse in order to have much chance of contacting the flies, recent studies suggested that important contact can occur due to tsetse entering buildings. Hence, we need to know more about tsetse in buildings, and to understand why, when and how they enter such places.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Buildings studied were single storied and comprised a large house with a thatched roof and smaller houses with roofs of metal or asbestos. Each building was unoccupied except for the few minutes of its inspection every two hours, so focusing on the responses of tsetse to the house itself, rather than to humans inside. The composition, and physiological condition of catches of tsetse flies, Glossina morsitans morsitans and G. pallidipes, in the houses and the diurnal and seasonal pattern of catches, were intermediate between these aspects of the catches from artificial refuges and a host-like trap. Several times more tsetse were caught in the large house, as against the smaller structures. Doors and windows seemed about equally effective as entry points. Many of the tsetse in houses were old enough to be potential vectors of sleeping sickness, and some of the flies alighted on the humans that inspected the houses.

Conclusion/Significance

Houses are attractive in themselves. Some of the tsetse attracted seem to be in a host-seeking phase of behavior and others appear to be looking for shelter from high temperatures outside. The risk of contracting sleeping sickness in houses varies according to house design.     

Estimating diarrhea mortality among young children in low and middle income countries

Background

Diarrhea remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among children under 5 years of age, but in many low and middle-income countries where vital registration data are lacking, updated estimates with regard to the proportion of deaths attributable to diarrhea are needed.

Methods

We conducted a systematic literature review to identify studies reporting diarrhea proportionate mortality for children 1–59 mo of age published between 1980 and 2009. Using the published proportionate mortality estimates and country level covariates we constructed a logistic regression model to estimate country and regional level proportionate mortality and estimated uncertainty bounds using Monte-Carlo simulations.

Findings

We identified more than 90 verbal autopsy studies from around the world to contribute data to a single-cause model. We estimated diarrhea proportionate mortality for 84 countries in 6 regions and found diarrhea to account for between 10.0% of deaths in the Americas to 31.3% of deaths in the South-east Asian region.

Discussion

Diarrhea remains a leading cause of death for children 1–59 mo of age. Published literature can be used to create a single-cause mortality disease model to estimate mortality for countries lacking vital registration data.     

Is the Even Distribution of Insecticide-Treated Cattle Essential for Tsetse Control? Modelling the Impact of Baits in Heterogeneous Environments

Background

Eliminating Rhodesian sleeping sickness, the zoonotic form of Human African Trypanosomiasis, can be achieved only through interventions against the vectors, species of tsetse (Glossina). The use of insecticide-treated cattle is the most cost-effective method of controlling tsetse but its impact might be compromised by the patchy distribution of livestock. A deterministic simulation model was used to analyse the effects of spatial heterogeneities in habitat and baits (insecticide-treated cattle and targets) on the distribution and abundance of tsetse.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The simulated area comprised an operational block extending 32 km from an area of good habitat from which tsetse might invade. Within the operational block, habitat comprised good areas mixed with poor ones where survival probabilities and population densities were lower. In good habitat, the natural daily mortalities of adults averaged 6.14% for males and 3.07% for females; the population grew 8.4× in a year following a 90% reduction in densities of adults and pupae, but expired when the population density of males was reduced to <0.1/km²; daily movement of adults averaged 249 m for males and 367 m for females. Baits were placed throughout the operational area, or patchily to simulate uneven distributions of cattle and targets. Gaps of 2–3 km between baits were inconsequential provided the average imposed mortality per km² across the entire operational area was maintained. Leaving gaps 5–7 km wide inside an area where baits killed 10% per day delayed effective control by 4–11 years. Corrective measures that put a few baits within the gaps were more effective than deploying extra baits on the edges.

Conclusions/Significance

The uneven distribution of cattle within settled areas is unlikely to compromise the impact of insecticide-treated cattle on tsetse. However, where areas of >3 km wide are cattle-free then insecticide-treated targets should be deployed to compensate for the lack of cattle.     

Analysis of the gut-specific microbiome from field-captured tsetse flies,and its potential relevance to host trypanosome vector competence

Background

The tsetse fly (Glossina sp.) midgut is colonized by maternally transmitted and environmentally acquired bacteria. Additionally, the midgut serves as a niche in which pathogenic African trypanosomes reside within infected flies. Tsetse’s bacterial microbiota impacts many aspects of the fly’s physiology. However, little is known about the structure of tsetse’s midgut-associated bacterial communities as they relate to geographically distinct fly habitats in east Africa and their contributions to parasite infection outcomes. We utilized culture dependent and independent methods to characterize the taxonomic structure and density of bacterial communities that reside within the midgut of tsetse flies collected at geographically distinct locations in Kenya and Uganda.

Results

Using culture dependent methods, we isolated 34 strains of bacteria from four different tsetse species (G. pallidipes, G. brevipalpis, G. fuscipes and G. fuscipleuris) captured at three distinct locations in Kenya. To increase the depth of this study, we deep sequenced midguts from individual uninfected and trypanosome infected G. pallidipes captured at two distinct locations in Kenya and one in Uganda. We found that tsetse’s obligate endosymbiont, Wigglesworthia, was the most abundant bacterium present in the midgut of G. pallidipes, and the density of this bacterium remained largely consistent regardless of whether or not its tsetse host was infected with trypanosomes. These fly populations also housed the commensal symbiont Sodalis, which was found at significantly higher densities in trypanosome infected compared to uninfected flies. Finally, midguts of field-captured G. pallidipes were colonized with distinct, low density communities of environmentally acquired microbes that differed in taxonomic structure depending on parasite infection status and the geographic location from which the flies were collected.

Conclusions

The results of this study will enhance our understanding of the tripartite relationship between tsetse, its microbiota and trypanosome vector competence. This information may be useful for developing novel disease control strategies or enhancing the efficacy of those already in use.

     

Serological markers of sand fly exposure to evaluate insecticidal nets against visceral leishmaniasis in India and Nepal: a cluster-randomized trial

Background

Visceral leishmaniasis is the world'' second largest vector-borne parasitic killer and a neglected tropical disease, prevalent in poor communities. Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LNs) are a low cost proven vector intervention method for malaria control; however, their effectiveness against visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is unknown. This study quantified the effect of LNs on exposure to the sand fly vector of VL in India and Nepal during a two year community intervention trial.

Methods

As part of a paired-cluster randomized controlled clinical trial in VL-endemic regions of India and Nepal we tested the effect of LNs on sand fly biting by measuring the antibody response of subjects to the saliva of Leishmania donovani vector Phlebotomus argentipes and the sympatric (non-vector) Phlebotomus papatasi. Fifteen to 20 individuals above 15 years of age from 26 VL endemic clusters were asked to provide a blood sample at baseline, 12 and 24 months post-intervention.

Results

A total of 305 individuals were included in the study, 68 participants provided two blood samples and 237 gave three samples. A random effect linear regression model showed that cluster-wide distribution of LNs reduced exposure to P. argentipes by 12% at 12 months (effect 0.88; 95% CI 0.83–0.94) and 9% at 24 months (effect 0.91; 95% CI 0.80–1.02) in the intervention group compared to control adjusting for baseline values and pair. Similar results were obtained for P. papatasi.

Conclusions

This trial provides evidence that LNs have a limited effect on sand fly exposure in VL endemic communities in India and Nepal and supports the use of sand fly saliva antibodies as a marker to evaluate vector control interventions.     

Assessment of Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness of 10-Valent and 13-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination in Kenyan Children

Background

The GAVI Alliance supported10-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) introduction in Kenya. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of introducing either PCV10 or the13-valent vaccine (PCV13) from a societal perspective and explored the incremental impact of including indirect vaccine effects.

Methods

The costs and effects of pneumococcal vaccination among infants born in Kenya in 2010 were assessed using a decision analytic model comparing PCV10 or PCV13, in turn, with no vaccination. Direct vaccine effects were estimated as a reduction in the incidence of pneumococcal meningitis, sepsis, bacteraemic pneumonia and non-bacteraemic pneumonia. Pneumococcal disease incidence was extrapolated from a population-based hospital surveillance system in Kilifi and adjustments were made for variable access to care across Kenya. We used vaccine efficacy estimates from a trial in The Gambia and accounted for serotype distribution in Kilifi. We estimated indirect vaccine protection and serotype replacement by extrapolating from the USA. Multivariable sensitivity analysis was conducted using Monte Carlo simulation. We assumed a vaccine price of US$ 3.50 per dose.

Findings

The annual cost of delivering PCV10 was approximately US$14 million. We projected a 42.7% reduction in pneumococcal disease episodes leading to a US$1.97 million reduction in treatment costs and a 6.1% reduction in childhood mortality annually. In the base case analysis, costs per discounted DALY and per death averted by PCV10, amounted to US$ 59 (95% CI 26–103) and US$ 1,958 (95% CI 866–3,425), respectively. PCV13 introduction improved the cost-effectiveness ratios by approximately 20% and inclusion of indirect effects improved cost-effectiveness ratios by 43–56%. The break-even prices for introduction of PCV10 and PCV13 are US$ 0.41 and 0.51, respectively.

Conclusions

Introducing either PCV10 or PCV13 in Kenya is highly cost-effective from a societal perspective. Indirect effects, if they occur, would significantly improve the cost-effectiveness.     

Where,When and Why Do Tsetse Contact Humans? Answers from Studies in a National Park of Zimbabwe

Background

Sleeping sickness, also called human African trypanosomiasis, is transmitted by the tsetse, a blood-sucking fly confined to sub-Saharan Africa. The form of the disease in West and Central Africa is carried mainly by species of tsetse that inhabit riverine woodland and feed avidly on humans. In contrast, the vectors for the East and Southern African form of the disease are usually savannah species that feed mostly on wild and domestic animals and bite humans infrequently, mainly because the odours produced by humans can be repellent. Hence, it takes a long time to catch many savannah tsetse from people, which in turn means that studies of the nature of contact between savannah tsetse and humans, and the ways of minimizing it, have been largely neglected.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The savannah tsetse, Glossina morsitans morsitans and G. pallidipes, were caught from men in the Mana Pools National park of Zimbabwe. Mostly the catch consisted of young G. m. morsitans, with little food reserve. Catches were increased by 4–8 times if the men were walking, not stationary, and increased about ten times more if they rode on a truck at 10 km/h. Catches were unaffected if the men used deodorant or were baited with artificial ox odour, but declined by about 95% if the men were with an ox. Surprisingly, men pursuing their normal daily activities were bitten about as much when in or near buildings as when in woodland. Catches from oxen and a standard ox-like trap were poor indices of the number and physiological state of tsetse attacking men.

Conclusion/Significance

The search for new strategies to minimize the contact between humans and savannah tsetse should focus on that occurring in buildings and vehicles. There is a need to design a man-like trap to help to provide an index of sleeping sickness risk.     

An administrative claims model for profiling hospital 30-day mortality rates for pneumonia patients

Background

Outcome measures for patients hospitalized with pneumonia may complement process measures in characterizing quality of care. We sought to develop and validate a hierarchical regression model using Medicare claims data that produces hospital-level, risk-standardized 30-day mortality rates useful for public reporting for patients hospitalized with pneumonia.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Retrospective study of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries age 66 years and older with a principal discharge diagnosis of pneumonia. Candidate risk-adjustment variables included patient demographics, administrative diagnosis codes from the index hospitalization, and all inpatient and outpatient encounters from the year before admission. The model derivation cohort included 224,608 pneumonia cases admitted to 4,664 hospitals in 2000, and validation cohorts included cases from each of years 1998–2003. We compared model-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates with medical record-derived state-level standardized mortality estimates using data from the Medicare National Pneumonia Project on 50,858 patients hospitalized from 1998–2001. The final model included 31 variables and had an area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve of 0.72. In each administrative claims validation cohort, model fit was similar to the derivation cohort. The distribution of standardized mortality rates among hospitals ranged from 13.0% to 23.7%, with 25^th, 50^th, and 75^th percentiles of 16.5%, 17.4%, and 18.3%, respectively. Comparing model-derived risk-standardized state mortality rates with medical record-derived estimates, the correlation coefficient was 0.86 (Standard Error = 0.032).

Conclusions/Significance

An administrative claims-based model for profiling hospitals for pneumonia mortality performs consistently over several years and produces hospital estimates close to those using a medical record model.     

Comparison of methods to correct survival estimates and survival regression analysis on a large HIV African cohort

Objective

The evaluation of HIV treatment programs is generally based on an estimation of survival among patients receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART). In large HIV programs, loss to follow-up (LFU) rates remain high despite active patient tracing, which is likely to bias survival estimates and survival regression analyses.

Methods

We compared uncorrected survival estimates derived from routine program data with estimates obtained by applying six correction methods that use updated outcome data by a field survey targeting LFU patients in a rural HIV program in Malawi. These methods were based on double-sampling and differed according to the weights given to survival estimates in LFU and non-LFU subpopulations. We then proposed a correction of the survival regression analysis.

Results

Among 6,727 HIV-infected adults receiving ART, 9% were LFU after one year. The uncorrected survival estimates from routine data were 91% in women and 84% in men. According to increasing sophistication of the correction methods, the corrected survival estimates ranged from 89% to 85% in women and 82% to 77% in men. The estimates derived from uncorrected regression analyses were highly biased for initial tuberculosis mortality ratios (RR; 95% CI: 1.07; 0.76–1.50 vs. 2.06 to 2.28 with different correction weights), Kaposi sarcoma diagnosis (2.11; 1.61–2.76 vs. 2.64 to 3.9), and year of ART initiation (1.40; 1.17–1.66 vs. 1.29 to 1.34).

Conclusions

In HIV programs with high LFU rates, the use of correction methods based on non-exhaustive double-sampling data are necessary to minimise the bias in survival estimates and survival regressions.     

Widespread Pyrethroid and DDT Resistance in the Major Malaria Vector Anopheles funestus in East Africa Is Driven by Metabolic Resistance Mechanisms

Background

Establishing the extent, geographical distribution and mechanisms of insecticide resistance in malaria vectors is a prerequisite for resistance management. Here, we report a widespread distribution of insecticide resistance in the major malaria vector An. funestus across Uganda and western Kenya under the control of metabolic resistance mechanisms.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Female An. funestus collected throughout Uganda and western Kenya exhibited a Plasmodium infection rate between 4.2 to 10.4%. Widespread resistance against both type I (permethrin) and II (deltamethrin) pyrethroids and DDT was observed across Uganda and western Kenya. All populations remain highly susceptible to carbamate, organophosphate and dieldrin insecticides. Knockdown resistance plays no role in the pyrethroid and DDT resistance as no kdr mutation associated with resistance was detected despite the presence of a F1021C replacement. Additionally, no signature of selection was observed on the sodium channel gene. Synergist assays and qRT-PCR indicated that metabolic resistance plays a major role notably through elevated expression of cytochrome P450s. DDT resistance mechanisms differ from West Africa as the L119F-GSTe2 mutation only explains a small proportion of the genetic variance to DDT resistance.

Conclusion

The extensive distribution of pyrethroid and DDT resistance in East African An. funestus populations represents a challenge to the control of this vector. However, the observed carbamate and organophosphate susceptibility offers alternative solutions for resistance management.     

Phylogeography and Population Structure of Glossina fuscipes fuscipes in Uganda: Implications for Control of Tsetse

Background

Glossina fuscipes fuscipes, a riverine species of tsetse, is the main vector of both human and animal trypanosomiasis in Uganda. Successful implementation of vector control will require establishing an appropriate geographical scale for these activities. Population genetics can help to resolve this issue by characterizing the extent of linkage among apparently isolated groups of tsetse.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted genetic analyses on mitochondrial and microsatellite data accumulated from approximately 1000 individual tsetse captured in Uganda and neighboring regions of Kenya and Sudan. Phylogeographic analyses suggested that the largest scale genetic structure in G. f. fuscipes arose from an historical event that divided two divergent mitochondrial lineages. These lineages are currently partitioned to northern and southern Uganda and co-occur only in a narrow zone of contact extending across central Uganda. Bayesian assignment tests, which provided evidence for admixture between northern and southern flies at the zone of contact and evidence for northerly gene flow across the zone of contact, indicated that this structure may be impermanent. On the other hand, microsatellite structure within the southern lineage indicated that gene flow is currently limited between populations in western and southeastern Uganda. Within regions, the average F_ST between populations separated by less than 100 km was less than ∼0.1. Significant tests of isolation by distance suggested that gene flow is ongoing between neighboring populations and that island populations are not uniformly more isolated than mainland populations.

Conclusions/Significance

Despite the presence of population structure arising from historical colonization events, our results have revealed strong signals of current gene flow within regions that should be accounted for when planning tsetse control in Uganda. Populations in southeastern Uganda appeared to receive little gene flow from populations in western or northern Uganda, supporting the feasibility of area wide control in the Lake Victoria region by the Pan African Tsetse and Trypanosomiasis Eradication Campaign.     

Validation of statistical models for estimating hospitalization associated with influenza and other respiratory viruses

Background

Reliable estimates of disease burden associated with respiratory viruses are keys to deployment of preventive strategies such as vaccination and resource allocation. Such estimates are particularly needed in tropical and subtropical regions where some methods commonly used in temperate regions are not applicable. While a number of alternative approaches to assess the influenza associated disease burden have been recently reported, none of these models have been validated with virologically confirmed data. Even fewer methods have been developed for other common respiratory viruses such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza and adenovirus.

Methods and Findings

We had recently conducted a prospective population-based study of virologically confirmed hospitalization for acute respiratory illnesses in persons <18 years residing in Hong Kong Island. Here we used this dataset to validate two commonly used models for estimation of influenza disease burden, namely the rate difference model and Poisson regression model, and also explored the applicability of these models to estimate the disease burden of other respiratory viruses. The Poisson regression models with different link functions all yielded estimates well correlated with the virologically confirmed influenza associated hospitalization, especially in children older than two years. The disease burden estimates for RSV, parainfluenza and adenovirus were less reliable with wide confidence intervals. The rate difference model was not applicable to RSV, parainfluenza and adenovirus and grossly underestimated the true burden of influenza associated hospitalization.

Conclusion

The Poisson regression model generally produced satisfactory estimates in calculating the disease burden of respiratory viruses in a subtropical region such as Hong Kong.     

Effect of a Standardised Dietary Restriction Protocol on Multiple Laboratory Strains of Drosophila melanogaster

Background

Outcomes of lifespan studies in model organisms are particularly susceptible to variations in technical procedures. This is especially true of dietary restriction, which is implemented in many different ways among laboratories.

Principal Findings

In this study, we have examined the effect of laboratory stock maintenance, genotype differences and microbial infection on the ability of dietary restriction (DR) to extend life in the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster. None of these factors block the DR effect.

Conclusions

These data lend support to the idea that nutrient restriction genuinely extends lifespan in flies, and that any mechanistic discoveries made with this model are of potential relevance to the determinants of lifespan in other organisms.