Wage rentals for reproducible human capital: evidence from Ghana and the Ivory Coast

Education, child nutrition, adult health/nutrition, and labor mobility are critical factors in achieving recent sustained growth in factor productivity. To compare the contribution of these four human capital inputs, an expanded specification of the wage function is estimated from household (LSMS) surveys of the Ivory Coast and Ghana. Specification tests assess whether the human capital inputs are exogenous, and instrumental variable techniques are used to estimate the wage function. Smaller panels from the Ivory Coast imply the magnitude of measurement error in the human capital inputs and provide more efficient instruments to estimate the wage equation. The conclusion emerges that weight-for-height and height are endogenous, particularly prone to measurement error, and heterogeneous in their effects on wages. Overall returns to these four forms of human capital are similar within each country for men and women, but education and migration returns are higher in the more rapidly growing Ivory Coast, and the wage effects of child nutrition proxied by height are greater in poorer, more malnourished Ghana.     

Height, weight and earnings among coalminers in India

This paper analyses earning/wage differentials by height among coalmine workers in India. Our findings suggest that workers of above average height earn 9-17% more than their shorter counterparts and 6-13% more than average reference height. The results suggest that long-term investments in health human capital might ensure increase of labour productivity and thereby earnings, particularly in underdeveloped economies.     

The Information Technology Productivity Paradox Revisited: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation in the Manufacturing Sector

The lack of empirical support for the positive economic impact of information technology (IT) has been called the IT productivity paradox. Even though output measurement problems have often been held responsible for the paradox, we conjecture that modeling limitations in production-economics-based studies and input measurement also might have contributed to the paucity of systematic evidence regarding the impact of IT. We take the position that output measurement is slightly less problematic in manufacturing than in the service sector and that there is sound a priori rationale to expect substantial productivity gains from IT investments in manufacturing and production management. We revisit the IT productivity paradox to highlight some potential limitations of earlier research and obtain empirical support for these conjectures. We apply a theoretical framework involving explicit modeling of a strategic business unit's (SBU)1 input choices to a secondary data set in the manufacturing sector. A widely cited study by Loveman (1994) with the same dataset showed that the marginal contribution of IT to productivity was negative. However, our analysis reveals a significant positive impact of IT investment on SBU output. We show that Loveman's negative results can be attributed to the deflator used for the IT capital. Further, modeling issues such as a firm's choice of inputs like IT, non-IT, and labor lead to major differences in the IT productivity estimates. The question as to whether firms actually achieved economic benefits from IT investments in the past decade has been raised in the literature, and our results provide evidence of sizable productivity gains by large successful corporations in the manufacturing sector during the same time period.     

Physical stature of adult Tsimane’ Amerindians, Bolivian Amazon in the 20th century

We examine the association between exposure to the market and Western society on the height of adult Tsimane', a foraging-farming society in the Bolivian Amazon. As with other contemporary native peoples, we find little evidence of a significant secular change in height during 1920-1980. Female height bore a positive association with own schooling and fluency in spoken Spanish and with maternal modern human capital (schooling, writing ability, and fluency in spoken Spanish), but male heights bore no association with parental height or with modern human capital. The absence of a secular change likely reflects the persistence of traditional forms of social organization and production that protect health.     

Simultaneous estimation of mixing rates and genetic drift under successive sampling of genetic markers with application to the mud crab (Scylla paramamosain) in Japan

In stock enhancement programs, it is important to assess mixing rates of released individuals in stocks. For this purpose, genetic stock identification has been applied. The allele frequencies in a composite population are expressed as a mixture of the allele frequencies in the natural and released populations. The estimation of mixing rates is possible, under successive sampling from the composite population, on the basis of temporal changes in allele frequencies. The allele frequencies in the natural population may be estimated from those of the composite population in the preceding year. However, it should be noted that these frequencies can vary between generations due to genetic drift. In this article, we develop a new method for simultaneous estimation of mixing rates and genetic drift in a stock enhancement program. Numerical simulation shows that our procedure estimates the mixing rate with little bias. Although the genetic drift is underestimated when the amount of information is small, reduction of the bias is possible by analyzing multiple unlinked loci. The method was applied to real data on mud crab stocking, and the result showed a yearly variation in the mixing rate.     

Challenges of Radiation Oncology in Spain Today

The increasing cost of health care delivery, coupled with reduced investments and budget cuts in European health care systems, has had a severe negative impact on health care delivery in Spain. This reduction in spending has had particularly negative effects on specialties that are heavily reliant on large capital investments to purchase the latest technologies needed to deliver optimal radiotherapy treatments. The Spanish Society of Radiation Oncology has been proactively working to mitigate the negative impact of budget cuts in Spain. In this paper, the authors describe a variety of solutions and proposals to overcome these challenges.     

Accuracy in population estimation: A methodological consideration

Accuracy in population estimation from individual measurement has been traditionally a research focus in both theoretical and applied ecology. In forest sciences, estimation of productivity and value recovery of forest products is essential for decision-making to achieve the goal of sustainable forest management. In this paper, we review the basic structure of data in forest sciences, describe commonly used statistical procedures in obtaining population estimates, and examine the accuracy associated with the forest products value estimation using forest inventory data of Manitoba, Canada. Our results suggested that simplified statistical procedures could bring about a wide range of bias in estimating lumber value recovery at the stand level, and improved understanding of stand structure and its reconstruction through computer simulation could be essential in reducing the bias involved in the estimation.     

Assessing Landbird Monitoring Programs and Demographic Causes of Population Trends

Abstract: Population trend data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) have been used to identify conservation priorities and justify major conservation initiatives. Yet the BBS has been criticized for potential habitat bias and reliance on abundance indices to estimate trends. We compared 1992–2003 BBS trend estimates to trend estimates derived from bird-banding data collected as part of the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program for 36 wood warbler species. Similarity in trends between the 2 monitoring programs at the survey-wide and program-wide scales suggested that each program can provide accurate trend information. The MAPS program, however, was designed primarily to complement (rather than duplicate) count-based efforts, such as the BBS, by providing estimates or indices of demographic rates. Demographic data from MAPS can be used to lend insight into proximate (demographic) causes of population trends and inform management. We illustrate this with analyses of 1992–2003 MAPS data for yellow warbler (Dendroica petechia). We used reverse-time capture-recapture models to evaluate importance of new recruits (including immigrating adults and young from the previous year) relative to surviving adults in explaining variation in trend among BBS physiographic strata. We included the number of young per adult captured (an index of productivity) as a covariate in models to assess effects of productivity on trends. Survival was the key demographic driver of recent population trends. Comparison of MAPS productivity indices and adult apparent survival rate estimates to BBS trend estimates largely confirmed this inference. We suggest that increased MAPS coverage, better coordination between MAPS and the BBS, and continued development of analytical methods that link the 2 programs will enhance the value of these monitoring efforts to land managers and conservation planners working at a variety of spatial scales.     

Early childhood length-for-age is associated with the work status of Filipino young adults

Most studies on childhood health and human capital in developing countries examine how early childhood linear growth relates to later human productivity as reflected in schooling success. Work status is another important human capital outcome related to early child health. This study examines the relationship of linear growth restriction at 2 years of age to work status in young adults who have, for the most part completed their schooling and further explores whether this relationship differs by gender. The analysis sample of 1795 was drawn from participants in the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey, which followed individuals from birth to age 20-22 years. Work status in 2005 was represented by three categories: not working, working in an informal job, and working in a formal job. Formal work in the Philippines, as in most countries, is associated with regular hours, higher wages and benefits. Analyses were stratified by gender and current school enrolment, and adjusted for socioeconomic status and attained years of schooling. Among males no longer in school, higher length-for-age Z-score (LAZ) at age 2 was associated with a 40% increase in likelihood of formal work compared to not working. In females, each 1 unit increase in LAZ was associated with 0.2 higher likelihood of formal vs. informal work. No significant associations were observed in the small sample of young adults still in school. To improve job prospects of young adults, it is important to provide proper nutrition in early childhood and adequate educational opportunities during schooling years.     

Time‐dependent estimates of molecular evolutionary rates: evidence and causes

We are writing in response to a recent critique by Emerson & Hickerson ( 2015 ), who challenge the evidence of a time‐dependent bias in molecular rate estimates. This bias takes the form of a negative relationship between inferred evolutionary rates and the ages of the calibrations on which these estimates are based. Here, we present a summary of the evidence obtained from a broad range of taxa that supports a time‐dependent bias in rate estimates, with a consideration of the potential causes of these observed trends. We also describe recent progress in improving the reliability of evolutionary rate estimation and respond to the concerns raised by Emerson & Hickerson ( 2015 ) about the validity of rates estimated from time‐structured sequence data. In doing so, we hope to dispel some misconceptions and to highlight several research directions that will improve our understanding of time‐dependent biases in rate estimates.     

Bayesian Updating of Model-Based Risk Estimates Using Imperfect Public Health Surveillance Data

Model-based estimation of the human health risks resulting from exposure to environmental contaminants can be an important tool for structuring public health policy. Due to uncertainties in the modeling process, the outcomes of these assessments are usually probabilistic representations of a range of possible risks. In some cases, health surveillance data are available for the assessment population over all or a subset of the risk projection period and this additional information can be used to augment the model-based estimates. We use a Bayesian approach to update model-based estimates of health risks based on available health outcome data. Updated uncertainty distributions for risk estimates are derived using Monte Carlo sampling, which allows flexibility to model realistic situations including measurement error in the observable outcomes. We illustrate the approach by using imperfect public health surveillance data on lung cancer deaths to update model-based lung cancer mortality risk estimates in a population exposed to ionizing radiation from a uranium processing facility.     

The origins of monetary income inequality: Patience,human capital,and division of labor

We present an explanation about the origins of monetary income inequality when an economically self-sufficient society opens to a market economy. The chain of associations runs from patience, to the accumulation of different forms of human capital, to self-selection into different occupations, and to the division of labor, which contributes to monetary income inequality. In a self-sufficient society, patience is exogenously determined and people rely on folk knowledge as the only form of human capital. With the establishment of schools, patient and impatient people sort themselves out by the type of human capital they begin to accumulate. Impatient people do not acquire folk knowledge because return to schooling takes many years to bear fruit. Schooling opens opportunities in occupations outside the village, whereas folk knowledge enhances employment opportunities that draw on farming or foraging. Self-selection into different occupations with different earnings potential spawns monetary income inequality. To test the explanation, we draw on data from a foraging–farming society in the Bolivian Amazon, the Tsimane'. We collected data during four consecutive quarters in 1999–2000 and a follow-up interview (2004). Data came from 151 adults (age, 16 years or more) from all households (n=48) in two villages with different levels of market exposure. During 1999–2000, impatience was associated with (a) greater folk knowledge and fewer years of schooling, (b) lower likelihood of working in wage labor, and (c) greater likelihood of working in rural subsistence occupations. People who had been patient in 1999–2000 had greater wage earnings and more modern physical assets in 2004.     

Estimability of migration survival rates from integrated breeding and winter capture–recapture data

Long‐distance migration is a common phenomenon across the animal kingdom but the scale of annual migratory movements has made it difficult for researchers to estimate survival rates during these periods of the annual cycle. Estimating migration survival is particularly challenging for small‐bodied species that cannot carry satellite tags, a group that includes the vast majority of migratory species. When capture–recapture data are available for linked breeding and non‐breeding populations, estimation of overall migration survival is possible but current methods do not allow separate estimation of spring and autumn survival rates. Recent development of a Bayesian integrated survival model has provided a method to separately estimate the latent spring and autumn survival rates using capture–recapture data, though the accuracy and precision of these estimates has not been formally tested. Here, I used simulated data to explore the estimability of migration survival rates using this model. Under a variety of biologically realistic scenarios, I demonstrate that spring and autumn migration survival can be estimated from the integrated survival model, though estimates are biased toward the overall migration survival probability. The direction and magnitude of this bias are influenced by the relative difference in spring and autumn survival rates as well as the degree of annual variation in these rates. The inclusion of covariates can improve the model's performance, especially when annual variation in migration survival rates is low. Migration survival rates can be estimated from relatively short time series (4–5 years), but bias and precision of estimates are improved when longer time series (10–12 years) are available. The ability to estimate seasonal survival rates of small, migratory organisms opens the door to advancing our understanding of the ecology and conservation of these species. Application of this method will enable researchers to better understand when mortality occurs across the annual cycle and how the migratory periods contribute to population dynamics. Integrating summer and winter capture data requires knowledge of the migratory connectivity of sampled populations and therefore efforts to simultaneously collect both survival and tracking data should be a high priority, especially for species of conservation concern.     

The Role of Community and Individuals in the Formation of Social Capital

Because social capital shapes many desirable socioeconomic outcomes, we ask what incentives drive private investments in social capital. We estimate the association between private investments in social capital (outcome variable) and the following explanatory variables: (a) individual-level variables from an optimal investment model, (b) spillovers from group social capital, (c) village income inequality, and (d) market openness. We draw on information from Tsimane’, a native Amazonian society of foragers and farmers in Bolivia, and equate social capital with gifts, help given, and communal labor offered by the household. Age bore an inverted U-shaped and income bore a positive association with social capital, but geographic mobility, wealth, and schooling bore no significant association with social capital. We found strong group-level associations even after instrumenting social capital; the association probably stems from strong kinship ties which tend to blur the line between the group and the individual. Village measures of social capital were positively and significantly associated with private investments in social capital. We found some evidence that village income inequality and market openness were negatively associated with private investments in social capital.     

Evaluation of the productivity of walleye pollock generations in the northern Sea of Okhotsk

Based on data on the abundances of various age groups in the northern Sea of Okhotsk in 1984–2008, the productivity of 33 generations of walleye pollock born between 1975 and 2007 was evaluated in two ways. The first approach allowed a retrospective estimation by abundance of the first nine one-year age groups, and the second one was a perspective estimation using the abundance index of the nearest recruitment—3- and 4-year-olds—that enabled us to evaluate the productivity of a generation before it enters into spawning and commercial stocks. These productivity estimates were compared to the data of annual catches and the dynamics of spawning stock for many years. A high value of walleye pollock stock was shown to be supported by several productive and highly productive generations, a medium value—by one productive and one moderately productive or by two moderately productive generations, and a low value—by one productive, or moderately productive, and low productive generations. In addition, overall mortality rates were calculated for generations with various productivity levels. The greatest variability of mortality rates was observed in immature walleye pollock; the maximum mortality rate was typical for the recruitment of highly abundant generations, and the minimum, for the least abundant ones. The lowest mortality was recorded at the age of mass maturation. Mature individuals of generations with various productivity levels showed insignificant differences in overall mortality rates.     

生态足迹深度和广度:构建三维模型的新指标

追踪自然资本存量消耗与流量占用是当前可持续发展研究的核心议题.系统阐述了国际上新近提出的生态足迹三维模型的概念与计算方法,重点对足迹深度和足迹广度两个指标进行了探讨,总结了模型的主要优势,并通过引入资本流量占用率和存量流量利用比两个新指标对模型作进一步完善,在此基础上实证分析了1961-2006年的中国生态足迹.结果表明,中国自 1978年步人生态赤字时代以来,足迹深度增长了近2倍,足迹广度减少了11.84％,因自然资本流量不足导致资本存量大幅肖耗已成为社会发展常态.到2006年时,中国需要2.9倍的国土才能持续支撑其资源消费量.研究表明,三维模型分别从时空两方面表征了人类对资本存量的消耗(足迹深度)和对流量的占用(足迹广度),增强了生态足迹在不同区域、不同时期之间的可比性,并在一定程度上克服了经典模型的评估缺陷.最后指出了三维模型今后发展的主要方向.     

Can population growth rates vary with the spatial scale at which they are measured?

1.  The ratio of successive population censuses is often assumed to reflect population growth rates. We identify three simple potential sources of bias in the estimation of population growth rates that relate to either the total number of censused individuals or the spatial areas over which censuses are conducted.
2.  The commonly used method of adding a constant to time series data to avoid problems caused by division by zero can lead to underestimation of growth rates at low densities in increasing populations.
3.  Variances associated with density estimates can lead to positive bias in estimation of growth rates when populations are distributed in ephemeral patches. The spatial variance and spatio-temporal covariance in bank vole census data suggest that this bias could be severe when small trapping grids are used. Use of logged estimators of growth rate avoids this problem.
4.  Using census data from non-randomly placed trapping grids that are smaller than twice the maximum range of natal dispersal to estimate population growth rates can lead to negatively biased estimates, particularly at low population densities.
5.  These three sources of bias are evaluated as explanations for scale-dependent changes in the estimates of growth rates identified in populations of snowshoe hare ( Lepus americanus ), bank voles ( Clethrionomys glareolus ) and lemmings ( Lemmus lemmus ).     

Rights-based Fisheries Management: An Environmentalist Perspective

Fisheries management regimes take many forms, but most fail to designate shares of the catch. This failure creates strong incentives for individuals to maximize their share without regard to long-term sustainability, because the benefits of conservation actions do not accrue to individuals. The competition to maximize catch usually entails excessive capital investments in fishing vessels and gear and intense fishing pressure, resulting in overfishing, high bycatch rates, and the use of large, efficient types of gear that can harm habitat. Managers respond by increasing regulations, but this often exacerbates perverse incentives. In addition, many fisheries could be producing more value than the current system permits, i.e. large quantities of fish are landed during short seasons, forcing fishermen to sell for low prices. Conservation and economic problems facing fisheries can be addressed in an integrated way, by designating access privileges (specifying shares of the catch) to individuals, harvest cooperatives, fishing sectors, communities, or other appropriate entities. Designated Access Privilege (DAP) systems demonstrably end the competition to maximize catch and often result in better conservation and financial performance. The cost of implementing these systems can be relatively high and has been a barrier to better management. However, this doesn’t have to be so. Fisheries could accept investments from a variety of sources and use a portion of the increased financial performance to repay recoverable grants and loans. The key to protecting fish stocks, habitats, and the communities that depend on them will be to implement DAPs that are appropriate for each fishery or community, making investments in sustainability, and creating financing mechanisms that are themselves sustainable, drawing on the increased value that DAP fisheries can produce.     

Estimation of the upper limit of the mutation rate and mean heterozygous effect of deleterious mutations

Deng et al. have recently proposed that estimates of an upper limit to the rate of spontaneous mutations and their average heterozygous effect can be obtained from the mean and variance of a given fitness trait in naturally segregating populations, provided that allele frequencies are maintained at the balance between mutation and selection. Using simulations they show that this estimation method generally has little bias and is very robust to violations of the mutation-selection balance assumption. Here I show that the particular parameters and models used in these simulations generally reduce the amount of bias that can occur with this estimation method. In particular, the assumption of a large mutation rate in the simulations always implies a low bias of estimates. In addition, the specific model of overdominance used to check the violation of the mutation-selection balance assumption is such that there is not a dramatic decline in mean fitness from overdominant mutations, again implying a low bias of estimates. The assumption of lower mutation rates and/or other models of balancing selection may imply considerably larger biases of the estimates, making the reliability of the proposed method highly questionable.     

Estimating parameters of a forest ecosystem C model with measurements of stocks and fluxes as joint constraints

We conducted an inverse modeling analysis, using a variety of data streams (tower-based eddy covariance measurements of net ecosystem exchange, NEE, of CO₂, chamber-based measurements of soil respiration, and ancillary ecological measurements of leaf area index, litterfall, and woody biomass increment) to estimate parameters and initial carbon (C) stocks of a simple forest C-cycle model, DALEC, using Monte Carlo procedures. Our study site is the spruce-dominated Howland Forest AmeriFlux site, in central Maine, USA. Our analysis focuses on: (1) full characterization of data uncertainties, and treatment of these uncertainties in the parameter estimation; (2) evaluation of how combinations of different data streams influence posterior parameter distributions and model uncertainties; and (3) comparison of model performance (in terms of both predicted fluxes and pool dynamics) during a 4-year calibration period (1997–2000) and a 4-year validation period (“forward run”, 2001–2004). We find that woody biomass increment, and, to a lesser degree, soil respiration, measurements contribute to marked reductions in uncertainties in parameter estimates and model predictions as these provide orthogonal constraints to the tower NEE measurements. However, none of the data are effective at constraining fine root or soil C pool dynamics, suggesting that these should be targets for future measurement efforts. A key finding is that adding additional constraints not only reduces uncertainties (i.e., narrower confidence intervals) on model predictions, but at the same time also results in improved model predictions by greatly reducing bias associated with predictions during the forward run.