Predation has a greater impact in less productive environments: variation in roe deer, Capreolus capreolus, population density across Europe

Aim We aimed to describe the large‐scale patterns in population density of roe deer Caprelous capreolus in Europe and to determine the factors shaping variation in their abundance. Location Europe. Methods We collated data on roe deer population density from 72 localities spanning 25° latitude and 48° longitude and analysed them in relation to a range of environmental factors: vegetation productivity (approximated by the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation) and forest cover as proxies for food supply, winter severity, summer drought and presence or absence of large predators (wolf, Canis lupus, and Eurasian lynx, Lynx lynx), hunter harvest and a competitor (red deer, Cervus elaphus). Results Roe deer abundance increased with the overall productivity of vegetation cover and with lower forest cover (sparser forest cover means that a higher proportion of overall plant productivity is allocated to ground vegetation and thus is available to roe deer). The effect of large predators was relatively weak in highly productive environments and in regions with mild climate, but increased markedly in regions with low vegetation productivity and harsh winters. Other potentially limiting factors (hunting, summer drought and competition with red deer) had no significant impact on roe deer abundance. Main conclusions The analyses revealed the combined effect of bottom‐up and top‐down control on roe deer: on a biogeographical scale, population abundance of roe deer has been shaped by food‐related factors and large predators, with additive effects of the two species of predators. The results have implications for management of roe deer populations in Europe. First, an increase in roe deer abundance can be expected as environmental productivity increases due to climate change. Secondly, recovery plans for large carnivores should take environmental productivity and winter severity into account when predicting their impact on prey.     

Influence of livestock,habitat type,and density of roe deer (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Capreolus capreolus</Emphasis>) on parasitic larvae abundance and infection seroprevalence in wild populations of roe deer from central Iberian Peninsula

Livestock farming is a common human activity that not only modifies natural habitat but also may lead to interactions with other wild animal species. We studied whether health status of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) is influenced by density, livestock, and type of habitat. We analyzed 208 samples (120 fecal and 88 sera) from roe deer populations of central Iberian Peninsula to evaluate both presence and abundance of parasitic oocysts, eggs, and/or larvae, especially of gastrointestinal and bronchopulmonary parasites, as well as the prevalence of five infectious diseases (infectious bovine rhinotracheitis (IBR), pestivirosis (BVD/BD), paratuberculosis (PTB), bluetongue (BT), and brucellosis). Fecal samples were collected in transects in pine and oak forests and endoparasites were detected by means of coprological techniques. Serum samples were obtained from hunted individuals and the serological testing for the infectious pathogens was performed by ELISA and Rose Bengal tests. Livestock and habitat type were associated both with the presence and the number of bronchopulmonary nematode L1-larvae per gram of feces (lpg), which was higher in areas with livestock and in pine forests. However, roe deer density neither influenced parasite presence nor lpg values. Regarding infectious pathogens, only seropositive samples for PTB and pestivirus were obtained indicating a possible transmission between domestic and wild ungulates in the study area. The low prevalence found is consistent with other studies in the Iberian Peninsula suggesting that roe deer have little contact with the infectious agents studied. Our results highlight that both habitat type and livestock significantly mediate abundance of parasitic larvae in roe deer, being higher under competition scenarios and in habitats of lower quality, a valuable aspect to be considered in future management and conservation strategies.     

Multi-Scale Foraging Habitat Use and Interactions by Sympatric Cervids in Northeastern China

Abstract: Moose (Alces alces) and roe deer (Capreolus pygargus) are sympatric in the forest region of northeastern China. Using univariate analyses of feeding sign data, we found the 2 species were positively associated, but there were distinctions between their use of forage resources across landscape, patch, and microhabitat scales. We used resource selection function models to predict the influence of environmental covariates on moose and roe deer foraging; we detected covariate effects at the landscape and microhabitat scales but not at the patch scale. Forage resources used by the 2 species were similar, but moose used wetter areas and more low-visibility habitats than did roe deer, which strongly avoided areas with sparse vegetation. Both species were influenced by forage abundance and distribution at the microhabitat scale but exhibited differences in intensity of use of plant species and microhabitats. Moose used areas with deeper snow and avoided hiding cover; roe deer avoided areas with higher total basal areas of tree stems and preferred areas with high plant species richness. For moose, there was a trade-off in the use of concealment cover between the landscape and microhabitat scales. We detected avoidance by moose of roads where roe deer occurred. Roe deer exhibited more capacity for coping with human disturbance and interspecific interaction. In areas similar to our study area, road closures and suppression of roe deer near roads within 3–5 years postlogging may benefit moose. Furthermore, a mosaic of areas with different logging intervals may contribute to spatial separation of moose and roe deer and promote their coexistence.     

How far and how fast do bryophytes travel at the landscape scale?

Dispersal ability is a factor of prime importance to explain biotic distributions. Yet, it is extremely difficult to measure directly. In this study, we take advantage of the natural experimental design of slag heap colonization in Belgium to document the timing and range of dispersal of bryophytes at the landscape scale. On the basis of a species atlas with a 4 × 4 km grid, the minimum distance separating species found on 52 slag heaps from potential source populations was determined. Minimum dispersal rates were inferred by coupling the information on minimum distance between slag heap and source populations with time since colonization. The number of species per slag heap is significantly correlated with time since colonization and area size. The frequency distribution of the longest dispersal events is highly skewed, with 44% of the species recruited within the nearest 6 km. In the remaining 56% of the species, recruitments from source populations located within a range of at least 6–86 km occurred within a period of less than 50 years. The majority of the species that are not recruited within the nearest vicinity of the slag heaps, including rare species at the regional scale, occur on slag heaps that have been colonized for 25–50 years. Most recently colonized slag heaps are indeed characterized by ‘fugitive’, weedy species, whereas slag heaps that have been colonized for > 50 years tend to accumulate perennial species with a ‘stayer’ life strategy. These observations suggest that rare species may display the dispersal ability to travel across the landscape, but are subsequently limited by their ability to establish a viable community because of more competitive neighbours. Rare species therefore tend to accumulate at intermediate colonization stages, which represent a trade‐off between an increasing probability of colonization with time and a decreasing probability of establishment due to competition.     

Effects of human activities on the spatial distribution of eastern roe deerCapreolus pygargus bedfordi in the Lesser Khingan Mountains, northeastern China

Eastern roe deerCapreolus pygargus bedfordi Thomas, 1908 occurred throughout China historically, but today are only found in 7 provinces. Their populations in China have been greatly impacted by human disturbances. Little is known about what kinds of human disturbances impact their distribution and resource requirements for survival. A survey was conducted over 20 661 ha located at the Erkehe Forestry Farm in the Lesser Khingan Mountains, northeastern China. Field work lasted from January to March, 2006 and January to March, 2007, and a total of 613 plots were visited along 28 sampling transects. Predictive models of easter roe deer resource selection were developed with or without the inclusion of human disturbance factors. Whether human disturbance exists or not, eastern roe deer retained strong links to patch size and patch density of low shrub and swamp, and the probability of moose occurrence. Low shrub and swamps created after logging provide more abundant annual shoots for food, and were vital for survival in harsh winters. When human disturbance was not modeled, eastern roe deer avoided higher density of bothBetula platyphylla andLarix gmelinii patches at a landscape scale, and larger mixed coniferous and broad-leaf patchs at local scales. Once human disturbances existed, eastern roe deer occurred in areas with higher NDVI and they had a considerably lower probability of presence in areas associated with roads and with a forest harvest interval of 4 years. Consequently, to predict effects of human disturbance on eastern roe deer spatial distribution, models need to incorporate effects of other competitive species, multiple spatial scale resource variables respectively, which will provide more value information for management and use of eastern roe deer population.     

Landscape connectivity influences gene flow in a roe deer population inhabiting a fragmented landscape: an individual-based approach

Changes in agricultural practices and forest fragmentation can have a dramatic effect on landscape connectivity and the dispersal of animals, potentially reducing gene flow within populations. In this study, we assessed the influence of woodland connectivity on gene flow in a traditionally forest-dwelling species--the European roe deer--in a fragmented landscape. From a sample of 648 roe deer spatially referenced within a study area of 55 x 40 km, interindividual genetic distances were calculated from genotypes at 12 polymorphic microsatellite loci. We calculated two geographical distances between each pair of individuals: the Euclidean distance (straight line) and the 'least cost distance' (the trajectory that maximizes the use of wooded corridors). We tested the correlation between genetic pairwise distances and the two types of geographical pairwise distance using Mantel tests. The correlation was better using the least cost distance, which takes into account the distribution of wooded patches, especially for females (the correlation was stronger but not significant for males). These results suggest that in a fragmented woodland area roe deer dispersal is strongly linked to wooded structures and hence that gene flow within the roe deer population is influenced by the connectivity of the landscape.     

Genetic variability and differentiation in Spanish roe deer (Capreolus capreolus): A phylogeographic reassessment within the European framework

Here we study 109 Iberian roe deer individuals corresponding to 9 Spanish populations. Individuals were sampled at locations that are expected to have acted as refugia for the species during the 20th century. Samples were analyzed for a 436 bp mtDNA fragment from the HVI region of mitochondrial DNA and 10 microsatellites. The 109 sequences gave 31 different haplotypes that enabled identification of a new haplogroup (mainly present in Northwestern Iberian populations and representing roughly a third of our samples) that is not present in other European roe deer populations. Using microsatellites, correspondence analysis and molecular coancestry information revealed high molecular differentiation among Northwestern and Central-Southern Spain roe deer populations. Both sequence and microsatellite analysis reveal that the Spanish roe deer populations are genetically heterogeneous and have high genetic structure clearly separating the Pyrenean-reintroduced populations and two main areas for the species in Spain (Northwestern and Central-Southern) coinciding with the two main areas acting as refugia for the majority of the mammal species during glaciations. The implications of the obtained information as regards the phylogeography of the species are discussed together with suggestions as to appropriate strategies for the conservation and management of populations.     

老爷岭南部狍冬季移动、卧息生境选择及其适宜性评价

在动物生境研究中,移动生境和卧息生境是生境研究的焦点。开展移动生境和卧息生境选择,并在此基础上进行生境评价,有利于深入了解动物对移动和卧息生境条件的需求,制定科学合理的栖息地保护计划。以东北虎（Panthera tigris altaica）的主要猎物物种之一-狍（Capreolus pygargus）为研究对象,于2017-2019年冬季积雪覆盖期在老爷岭南部通过随机布设28个大样方和84条用于足迹链跟踪的样线收集狍的移动点和卧息点信息,再结合近年来收集的东北虎出现点,利用广义可加模型（GAM）和最大熵模型（MaxEnt）进行狍移动、卧息生境选择及评价研究。移动生境选择研究表明,狍在移动的过程中偏好选择坡度小、距农田距离>500 m、远离道路、居民点和低海拔或较高海拔的区域;移动生境评价分析表明,移动适宜和次适宜生境面积之和为1318.16 km²,占研究区域面积的51.28%,当加入虎活动点影响因子后,狍移动适宜和次适宜生境面积之和为901.52 km²,适宜和次适宜生境面积之和减少了31.61%。狍卧息生境选择研究表明,水源、农田、道路和雪深是影响狍卧息的关键因素,其中雪深对狍卧息生境选择的贡献率达到70.13%;卧息生境评价表明,卧息适宜和次适宜生境面积之和为1243.77 km²,占研究区域面积的48.39%,当加入虎出现点因子后,适宜生境和次适宜生境面积之和减少了61.00%,仅为485.02 km²。研究认为,虎的出现对狍移动和卧息生境选择均产生影响,虎的活动及捕食行为可能会减少狍的活动范围和频次,狍远离虎活动区域卧息休息,压缩了狍适宜卧息的空间。     

Lichen colonization patterns show minor effects of dispersal distance at landscape scale

The role of dispersal in controlling the distribution of species at landscape scale (10²–10⁴ m) is still a matter of dispute. Here, we use the early colonization pattern of 23 epiphytic lichen species in a former tree‐less heathland landscape (170 km²) to test three hypotheses on how a landscape is colonized: A) mainly by long‐distance dispersal (LDD), B) by rare LDD events followed by limited local dispersal, and C) mainly by limited dispersal, resulting in a colonization front. The study system consisted of a chronosequence of 94 habitat patches constituting 0.4% of the landscape area, with a minimum inter‐site distance of 0.2 km. We used generalized linear mixed models with Bayesian inference to test predictions from the hypotheses. When age of sites and habitat area were accounted for, additional effects of geographical position of sites (distance from old sites, distance‐dependent relative propagule pressure, and distance from border of study area) on the probability of colonization by lichen species were small. Furthermore, species richness of sites did not depend on geographical position, either. Our results support a colonization process mainly governed by LDD at landscape scale, and that local stepwise colonization was not important. We argue that passively dispersed species with numerous small propagules tend to exhibit patchy populations with extensive dispersal at the landscape scale, rather than behaving like classical metapopulations.     

Assessing landscape resistance to roe deer dispersal using fuzzy set theory and multicriteria analysis: a case study in Central Spain

The central Iberian Peninsula has one of the highest densities of roe deer populations in Spain. A new motorway is planned to pass through the middle of the distribution of roe deer, thus making it necessary to conduct a connectivity analysis. A map of resistance to roe deer dispersal movements was obtained based on the literature and expert judgment. Three factors were selected: land use (defined by the ability to hide movements, food source, and degree of naturalness), landforms, and influence due to proximity to elements that increase (such as roads and urban areas) or decrease (water resources and proximity to optimal habitat patches) resistance at the local level. Different combinations of factors derived using the analytical hierarchy and fuzzy logic processes were analysed and compared with the real distribution of the species. More realistic resistance (cost) values were obtained for gamma values close to 0.9. This highlights the greater predominance of the fuzzy sum over the fuzzy product in modelling the cost surface. Better results were obtained in scenarios where the predominant factors were either land use and landforms or land use and proximity to human-modified areas. This indicates that roe deer will readily range far from their optimal patches if the land use provides partial cover. These movements appear to be conditioned by steep terrain. Our case study offers a good example of building a cost resistance matrix to help locate areas where the expansion of the species may be curbed or encouraged.     

Population responses of roe deer to the recolonization of the French Vercors by wolves

In a context of changing carnivore populations worldwide, it is crucial to understand the consequences of these changes for prey populations. The recolonization by wolves of the French Vercors mountain range and the long-term monitoring (2001–2017) of roe deer in this area provided a unique opportunity to assess the effects of wolves on this prey. Roe deer was the main prey of wolves in the west Vercors mountain range during this recolonization. We compared roe deer abundance and fawn body mass in two contrasted areas of a wolf pack territory: a central area (core of the territory characterized by an intense use by wolves) and a peripheral area (used more occasionally). Roe deer population growth rates were lower in the central area between 2001 and 2006, resulting in a decline in roe deer abundance. Roe deer abundance substantially dropped in the two study areas after an extremely severe winter but the abundance of roe deer in the central area facing with wolves was slower to recover and remained at lower abundance levels for 6 years. Fawn body mass was consistently lower in the central area, varied similarly as roe deer abundance, and was not influenced by weather conditions or red deer population abundance. Altogether, the effects of wolves on roe deer in the central area occurred during a 10-year period following the establishment of wolves, through the interplay between wolf predation (before wolves started preying on red deer), harsh winter conditions and possibly naivety of prey to this recolonizing predator.     

Population density and sex do not influence fine-scale natal dispersal in roe deer

It is commonly assumed that the propensity to disperse and the dispersal distance of mammals should increase with increasing density and be greater among males than among females. However, most empirical evidence, especially on large mammals, has focused on highly polygynous and dimorphic species displaying female-defence mating tactics. We tested these predictions on roe deer, a weakly polygynous species of large herbivore exhibiting a resource-defence mating tactic at a fine spatial scale. Using three long-term studies of populations that were subject to the experimental manipulation of size, we did not find any support for either prediction, whether in terms of dispersal probability or dispersal distance. Our findings of similar dispersal patterns in both sexes of roe deer suggest that the underlying cause of natal dispersal is not related to inbreeding avoidance in this species. The absence of positive density dependence in fine-scale dispersal behaviour suggests that roe deer natal dispersal is a pre-saturation process that is shaped by heterogeneities in habitat quality rather than by density per se.     

Access to mates in a territorial ungulate is determined by the size of a male's territory, but not by its habitat quality

1. Territoriality is commonly associated with resource defence polygyny, where males are expected to gain access to females by anticipating how resources will influence female distribution and competing for resource-rich sites to establish their zone of dominance. 2. We tested this hypothesis in European roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) by simultaneously assessing the influence of resources on female distribution and the influence of female distribution on male distribution and breeding success using paternity analyses. 3. Females did not fully distribute themselves among male territories in relation to resources. As a result, relative female abundance in a male's territory depended on territory size, but not on its habitat quality. In turn, relative female abundance in a male's territory determined, at least partially, his breeding success. 4. Interestingly, male territory size, and hence access to females, was partly determined by male body mass (all males) and by residual antler size (subadults only). The latter result suggests that large antlers may be important to young males for establishing their first territory, which is then usually retained for all subsequent reproductive seasons. 5. To conclude, although territoriality of male roe deer has certainly evolved as a tactic for ensuring access to mates, our results suggest that it does not really conform to a conventional resource defence polygyny strategy, as males seem to gain no obvious benefit from defending a territory in an area of high habitat quality in terms of enhanced access to mates. 6. This may explain the stability of male territories between years, suggesting that male territoriality conforms to an 'always stay' and 'low risk-low gain' mating strategy in roe deer.     

Thirty‐four polymorphic microsatellites for European roe deer

The European roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) is an interesting model for molecular ecology studies because of its abundance and adaptability across a range of environments (including human‐modified habitats), and because of its increasing impacts on agricultural crops and on regenerating forests. We identify polymorphic microsatellites in two managed populations of roe deer in France by using cross‐species amplification of primers from other Cervids and from Bovids. Of the 62 primer pairs tested, 45 amplified microsatellites in roe deer, and 34 were polymorphic. Eleven primer pairs were selected for multiplex gel‐loading for routine genotyping of the studied populations.     

A Late Pleistocene (MIS3) ungulate mammal assemblage (Los Rincones,Zaragoza, Spain) in the Eurosiberian–Mediterranean boundary

The Late Pleistocene archaeo-palaeontological sites in the Iberian Peninsula are located mainly on the coasts. Here, we present for the first time a palaeoenvironmental proxy for Upper Pleistocene locality (Marine Isotope Stage 3 MIS3) that is in the interior peninsular, in the Moncayo massif (Zaragoza). This is actually the boundary between Mediterranean and Eurosiberian climatic regions. This study is based in the site ungulates: Capra pyrenaica, which is larger in size than the current and fossil Capra from the Mediterranean area of the Iberian Peninsula. The horses have a small size, which is similar to that of the horses from Fontainhas and Casares. Significantly lesser in the number of specimens are the roe deer, the southern chamois and the auroch. The study and comparison of the faunal assemblage of the locality of Los Rincones with other sites of the Iberian MIS3 show a cluster of sites in the southern Peninsular, though separated, due to the abundance of Capra pyrenaica. The association of Los Rincones is similar to the southern peninsular sites such as Nerja, Gorham Cave, Cova Beneito and Zafarraya. The ungulate assemblage of Los Rincones represents a landscape with temperate climate, presence of steppe and patches of forest, similar to the current landscape surrounding the cavity today.     

Large Impact of Eurasian Lynx Predation on Roe Deer Population Dynamics

The effects of predation on ungulate populations depend on several factors. One of the most important factors is the proportion of predation that is additive or compensatory respectively to other mortality in the prey, i.e., the relative effect of top-down and bottom-up processes. We estimated Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) kill rate on roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) using radio-collared lynx. Kill rate was strongly affected by lynx social status. For males it was 4.85 ± 1.30 S.E. roe deer per 30 days, for females with kittens 6.23 ± 0.83 S.E. and for solitary females 2.71 ± 0.47 S.E. We found very weak support for effects of prey density (both for Type I (linear) and Type II (non-linear) functional responses) and of season (winter, summer) on lynx kill rate. Additionally, we analysed the growth rate in a roe deer population from 1985 to 2005 in an area, which lynx naturally re-colonized in 1996. The annual roe deer growth rate was lower after lynx re-colonized the study area, but it was also negatively influenced by roe deer density. Before lynx colonized the area roe deer growth rate was λ = 1.079 (± 0.061 S.E.), while after lynx re-colonization it was λ = 0.94 (± 0.051 S.E.). Thus, the growth rate in the roe deer population decreased by Δλ = 0.14 (± 0.080 S.E.) after lynx re-colonized the study area, which corresponded to the estimated lynx predation rate on roe deer (0.11 ± 0.042 S.E.), suggesting that lynx predation was mainly additive to other mortality in roe deer. To conclude, this study suggests that lynx predation together with density dependent factors both influence the roe deer population dynamics. Thus, both top-down and bottom-up processes operated at the same time in this predator-prey system.     

Relationship between prey availability and population dynamics of the Eurasian lynx and its diet in northern Belarus

The diet and population dynamics of the Eurasian lynxLynx lynx Linnaeus, 1758 as well as an index of its main prey abundance were studied in transitional mixed forests of northern Belarus in 1985-2004. Monitoring of the lynx population and its main potential prey (the mountain hareLepus timidus, and the roe deerCapreolus capreolus) was done by snow-tracking. Also, abundance of tetraonids (Tetraonidae) was monitored by sight count. Hare numbers were fairly stable during the study period, whereas density of the roe deer population markedly increased, and tetraonids decreased. Composition of the lynx diet was stable seasonally. Lynx fed mostly on hares, roe deer and birds (usually tetraonids) year-round. However, the share of roe deer in lynx diet increased significantly during the period of its higher abundance and the share of tetraonids decreased with their decreasing numbers. There was also a remarkable increase of lynx population, which followed that of the roe deer, despite the pronounced decline of tetraonids. The results of the study emphasised the importance of roe deer as a prey of the Eurasian lynx.     

Attachment site selection of ticks on roe deer, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Capreolus capreolus</Emphasis>

The spatio-temporal attachment site patterns of ticks feeding on their hosts can be of significance if co-feeding transmission (i.e. from tick to tick without a systemic infection of the host) of pathogens affects the persistence of a given disease. Using tick infestation data on roe deer, we analysed preferred attachment sites and niche width of Ixodes ticks (larvae, nymphs, males, females) and investigated the degree of inter- and intrastadial aggregation. The different development stages showed rather consistent attachment site patterns and relative narrow feeding site niches. Larvae were mostly found on the head and on the front legs of roe deer, nymphs reached highest densities on the head and highest adult densities were found on the neck of roe deer. The tick stages feeding (larvae, nymphs, females) on roe deer showed high degrees of intrastadial spatial aggregation, whereas males did not. Male ticks showed large feeding site overlap with female ticks. Feeding site overlap between larval-female and larval-nymphal ticks did occur especially during the months May–August on the head and front legs of roe deer and might allow pathogen transmission via co-feeding. Tick density, niche width and niche overlap on roe deer are mainly affected by seasonality, reflecting seasonal activity and abundance patterns of ticks. Since different tick development stages occur spatially and temporally clustered on roe deer, transmission experiments of tick-borne pathogens are urgently needed.     

Size and genetic composition of the colonizing propagules in a butterfly metapopulation

The amount and spatial distribution of genetic variation that is maintained in a metapopulation depends critically on the colonization process. Here, we use molecular markers to determine the number and genetic relatedness of individuals establishing new local populations in a large metapopulation of the Glanville fritillary butterfly Melitaea cinxia. The empirical results are compared with the predictions of a dispersal model based on a diffusion approximation of correlated random walk, which serves as a base‐line hypothesis about the rate and pattern of colonization. The results show that half of the new local populations consisted of a single larval group of full sibs and hence necessarily of the offspring of a single female. If the colonization involved two or more larval groups, these were usually oviposited by two different females that were unrelated to each other. The pattern of colonizations is thus intermediate between the propagule pool and the migrant pool models. These results elucidate the generation of genetic stochasticity, which may influence the dynamics of small populations. The dispersal model predicted well the pattern of habitat occupancy and the pattern of colonizations in relation to landscape structure, though which particular habitat patches became colonized was influenced also by measures of habitat quality not included in the model.     

Achieving landscape-scale deer management for biodiversity conservation: The need to consider sources and sinks

Hyper-herbivory following predator removal is a global issue. Across North America and Europe, increasing deer numbers are affecting biodiversity and human epidemiology, but effectiveness of deer management in heterogeneous landscapes remains poorly understood. In forest habitats in Europe, deer numbers are rarely assessed and management is mainly based on impacts. Even where managed areas achieve stable or improving impact levels, the extent to which they act as sinks or persist as sources exporting deer to the wider landscape remains unknown. We present a framework to quantify effectiveness of deer management at the landscape scale. Applied across 234 km² of Eastern England, we assessed management of invasive Reeve's muntjac (Muntiacus reevesi) and native roe (Capreolus capreolus), measuring deer density (using thermal imaging distance transects 780 km/year), fertility, neonatal survival, and culling to quantify source-sink dynamics over 2008–2010. Despite management that removed 23–40% of the annual population, 1,287 (95% CI: 289–2,680) muntjac and 585 (454–1,533) roe deer dispersed annually into the wider landscape, consistent with their ongoing range expansion. For roe deer, culled individuals comprised fewer young deer than predicted by a Leslie matrix model assuming a closed population, consistent with age-dependent emigration. In this landscape, for roe and muntjac, an annual cull of at least 60% and 53%, respectively, is required to offset annual production. Failure to quantify deer numbers and productivity has allowed high density populations to persist as regional sources contributing to range expansion, despite deliberative management programs, and without recognition by managers who considered numbers and impacts to be stable. Reversing an unfavorable condition of woodland biodiversity requires appropriate culls across large contiguous areas, supported by knowledge of deer numbers and fertility. © 2013 The Wildlife Society.