Predicting impacts of global warming on population dynamics and distribution of arthropods in Japan

The mean surface temperature rose by 1.0°C over the last 40 years in Japan. Changes in the pest status, distribution range, winter mortality, and the synchronization in phenology were examined. The increase in the number of annual generations of each taxon was predicted based on the lower developmental threshold and the thermal constant. Increasing damage due to rice- and fruit-infesting bugs, their simultaneous outbreaks and the poleward geographic spread observed for six species may be triggered by global warming. The winter mortality of adults of Nezara viridula and Halyomorpha halys is predicted to be reduced by 15% by each rise of 1°C. More than 50 species of butterflies showed northward range expansions and ten species of previously migrant butterflies established on Nansei Islands during 1966–1987. Global warming may be responsible for the recent decline in abundance of Plutella xylostella and the increase in Helicoverpa armigera and Trichoplusia ni. In general, global warming may work in favour of natural enemies (except for spiders) by increasing the number of generations more than in their host species. Biological control utilizing native natural enemies is expected to become a more important control tactic in the future. Greenhouse culture may provide a model of a temperate agroecosystem after global warming. The increasing occurrence of alien species of tropical origin in association with the increase in pesticide applications might be expected. Interception of alien pests by plant quarantine followed by integrated pest management is needed.     

Combining population-dynamic and ecophysiological models to predict climate-induced insect range shifts

Hundreds of species are shifting their ranges in response to recent climate warming. To predict how continued climate warming will affect the potential, or “bioclimatic range,” of a skipper butterfly, we present a population‐dynamic model of range shift in which population growth is a function of temperature. We estimate the parameters of this model using previously published data for Atalopedes campestris. Summer and winter temperatures affect population growth rate independently in this species and therefore interact as potential range‐limiting factors. Our model predicts a two‐phase response to climate change; one range‐limiting factor gradually becomes dominant, even if warming occurs steadily along a thermally linear landscape. Whether the range shift accelerates or decelerates and whether the number of generations per year at the range edge increases or decreases depend on whether summer or winter warms faster. To estimate the uncertainty in our predictions of range shift, we use a parametric bootstrap of biological parameter values. Our results show that even modest amounts of data yield predictions with reasonably small confidence intervals, indicating that ecophysiological models can be useful in predicting range changes. Nevertheless, the confidence intervals are sensitive to regional differences in the underlying thermal landscape and the warming scenario.     

Life history variation within a parthenogenetic population of Daphnia parvula (Crustacea: Cladocera)

Summary Evidence for genetically determined life history variability within a population or a species is rare. In this three year experimental examination of a parthenogenetically reproducing population of the planktonic crustacean Daphnia parvula, we found evidence for a succession of clones or groups of clones that exhibited distinctive body size and reproductive differences that were maintained after numerous generations under standardized conditions in the laboratory. The D. parvula population reached maximum density in the fall and maintained relatively high densities through the winter and spring. Isolates from this fall-winter-spring period all had a larger body size at death and higher fecundity when compared with summer isolates under natural food and temperature conditions. These differences could not be accounted for by differences in temperature and food abundance among the seasons. An additional difference in these experiments was a shift in reproductive effort by the summer isolate which produced a higher proportion of its offspring in the first two broods. The shift in life history characteristics and a summer decline of the Daphnia parvula population was correlated with both an increase in inedible and perhaps toxic blue-green algae and an increase in a dipteran predator Chaoborus. Comparison of the survivorship curves for all of the seasonal life history experiments indicated that D. parvula survivorship was not lower during the summer discounting a toxic effect from blue-green algae. Positive population growth on natural food in the laboratory at this time indicated food was not limiting and that predation was the probable cause of the population decline.Laboratory life history experiments under standardized food and temperature conditions were run with D. parvula isolates from the spring and summer plankton. Genetically based differences as determined in these experiments were smaller body size, lower fecundity, smaller brood size, and shorter life span for the summer animals relative to spring animals. Thirty seven percent of the summer animals also reproduced at an earlier age under standardized conditions. The shift in reproductive effort to earlier broods by summer animals rnder natural conditions appeared to be a phenotypic response as the summer isolate did not produce a higher proportion of its offspring in early broods under standardized conditions.When estimates of predatory mortality were added to the life tables of the standardized experiments, the earlier reproduction of some of the summer animals allowed a population increase under a regime of intense predation. Life tables for the spring animals predicted a population decline under these circumstances. Predictable seasonal changes in biotic factors such as predation suggest a mechanism whereby diverse life history patterns with corresponding differences in r may be maintained within a population.     

Winter warming facilitates range expansion: cold tolerance of the butterfly<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Atalopedes campestris</Emphasis>

Our ability to predict ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change requires an understanding of the mechanistic links between climate and range limits. The warming trend over the past half-century has generated numerous opportunities to develop much-needed case studies of these links. Species that are only limited by climatic factors are likely to shift range quickly during periods of warming. Such species directly impact recipient communities and indicate trends that will become more widespread. Because minimum temperature (T (min)) is rising at twice the rate of maximum temperature, species with this range-limiting factor may be especially responsive to global warming. In this study, I test the hypothesis that rising T (min) has directly affected the range of a skipper butterfly. Atalopedes campestris has moved northward rapidly this century, recently colonizing eastern Washington where January T (min) has risen 3 degrees C in 50 years. The results show that: 1. A. campestris' range lies completely within the -4 degrees C January average minimum isotherm, and that recently colonized areas were below this threshold earlier this century. 2. In acute cold stress experiments, -4 to -7 degrees C proved to be a critical thermal limit: median supercooling point was -6.3 degrees C, and minimum lethal temperature (LT50 with 12-h exposure) was -5.7 degrees C. 3. In chronic cold stress experiments, survivorship declined sharply in diurnally fluctuating thermal regimes typical of the current range edge. High mortality occurred under constant 0 degrees C conditions as well as in fluctuating regimes, implying that thermal insulation from snow would not protect A. campestris. 4. There was no evidence of evolution in cold tolerance at the range margin, despite strong selection. Thus, winter warming was apparently a prerequisite for the range expansion. Characteristics of this species that seem to be associated with its rapid response are that it is an opportunistic species, it is not habitat or dispersal limited, and it is constrained by T (min).     

Factors influencing the seasonal life history of the pitcher-plant mosquito, Wyeomyia smithii

Abstract.  1. The effects of resource levels, thermal microclimate, and seasonal oviposition patterns on fecundity and survivorship in the pitcher-plant mosquito, Wyeomyia smithii (Coq.), were examined at a northern Wisconsin bog over the course of 2 years. Wyeomyia smithii are bivoltine at this locality, thereby enabling the study of summer and overwintering generations separately.
2. Nutrient resources of W. smithii were not limiting and there was no indication of density-dependent survivorship or fecundity.
3. Oviposition rates were highest in young, large pitchers and individual mosquitoes appeared to allocate only a few eggs to any one leaf.
4. Winter was the harsh season, and the principal manifestation of seasonal harshness was reduced survivorship.
5. Overwintering W. smithii that had been oviposited later in the summer had a higher odds of survival than those oviposited earlier in the summer.
6. It was concluded that dispersal of eggs among many pitchers serves to spread the risk of encountering lethal winter temperatures among spatially unpredictable patches.     

Differential sensitivity of planktonic trophic levels to extreme summer temperatures in boreal lakes

The stress–size hypothesis predicts that smaller organisms will be less sensitive to stress. Consequently, climate warming is expected to favour smaller taxa from lower trophic levels and smaller individuals within populations. To test these hypotheses, we surveyed zooplankton communities in 20 boreal lakes in Killarney Provincial Park, Canada during 2005 (an anomalously warm summer) and 2006 (a normal summer). Higher trophic levels had larger responses to warm temperatures supporting the stress–size hypothesis; however, rather than imposing negative effects, higher density and biomass were observed under warmer temperatures. As a result, larger taxa from higher trophic levels were disproportionately favoured with warming, precluding an expected shift towards smaller species. Proportionately greater increases in metabolic rates of larger organisms or altered biotic interactions (e.g. predation and competition) are possible explanations for shifts in biomass distribution. Warmer temperatures also favoured smaller individuals of the two most common species, in agreement with the stress–size hypothesis. Despite this, these populations had higher biomass in the warm summer. Therefore, reduced adult survivorship may have triggered these species to invest in reproduction over growth. Hence, warmer epilimnions, higher zooplankton biomass and smaller individuals within zooplankton populations may function as sensitive indicators of climate warming in boreal lakes.     

Contrasting effects of summer and winter warming on body mass explain population dynamics in a food‐limited Arctic herbivore

The cumulative effects of climate warming on herbivore vital rates and population dynamics are hard to predict, given that the expected effects differ between seasons. In the Arctic, warmer summers enhance plant growth which should lead to heavier and more fertile individuals in the autumn. Conversely, warm spells in winter with rainfall (rain‐on‐snow) can cause ‘icing’, restricting access to forage, resulting in starvation, lower survival and fecundity. As body condition is a ‘barometer’ of energy demands relative to energy intake, we explored the causes and consequences of variation in body mass of wild female Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) from 1994 to 2015, a period of marked climate warming. Late winter (April) body mass explained 88% of the between‐year variation in population growth rate, because it strongly influenced reproductive loss, and hence subsequent fecundity (92%), as well as survival (94%) and recruitment (93%). Autumn (October) body mass affected ovulation rates but did not affect fecundity. April body mass showed no long‐term trend (coefficient of variation, CV = 8.8%) and was higher following warm autumn (October) weather, reflecting delays in winter onset, but most strongly, and negatively, related to ‘rain‐on‐snow’ events. October body mass (CV = 2.5%) increased over the study due to higher plant productivity in the increasingly warm summers. Density‐dependent mass change suggested competition for resources in both winter and summer but was less pronounced in recent years, despite an increasing population size. While continued climate warming is expected to increase the carrying capacity of the high Arctic tundra, it is also likely to cause more frequent icing events. Our analyses suggest that these contrasting effects may cause larger seasonal fluctuations in body mass and vital rates. Overall our findings provide an important ‘missing’ mechanistic link in the current understanding of the population biology of a keystone species in a rapidly warming Arctic.     

The interactive effects of photoperiod and future climate change may have negative consequences for a wide‐spread invasive insect

Increasing global temperatures may affect many ectotherms, including insects, although increasing temperatures are thought to benefit future populations through effects on adult size, fecundity, or populations. However, the way that temperature may interact with photoperiod is not well understood. We study this problem using the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus, an important worldwide invasive whose future spread is thought to be affected by changes in climate. We investigated how mass at maturity varied with temperature (21°C, 25°C) across short and long photoperiods, using laboratory populations from the extreme ends of this species’ current US range (Florida, New Jersey). These values were used to parametrize a model to predict optimal mass based on development times; the results of a second laboratory experiment under the same treatments were compared to model predictions. Warmer conditions shortened development times in females from all locations leading to either higher or lower mass depending on the photoperiod. We then used published mass–fecundity relationships to determine the consequences of mass on fecundity under our conditions. Under the majority of scenarios warming decreased predicted fecundity under long photoperiods, but proved beneficial under short photoperiods because the costs of fast development were offset by increased survival in the face of late‐season freezing risk. However, fecundity was always low under short photoperiods, so the marginal benefit of warming appears negligible given its cost under long photoperiods when the majority of reproduction occurs. Thus, with northern range expansion, where colder weather currently limits this species, detrimental effects of warming on fecundity are likely, similar to those identified for mass. Unlike previous work that has shown benefits of a warming planet to insects like Aedes albopictus, our work predicts lower performance under warming conditions in summer across the current range, a prediction with implications for range expansion, disease dynamics and populations.     

Increasing temperatures affect multiyear life cycle of the outbreak bush-cricket Barbitistes vicetinus (Orthoptera,Tettigoniidae)

Although outbreaks of rare species are unusual, several insect species have become emerging pests probably due to the ongoing environmental changes. Barbitistes vicetinus was first described in 1993 as an endemic bush-cricket of north-east Italy and was considered rare until 2008, when it became an established pest, causing severe damages to forests and crops. The possible role of temperature in changing its life cycle has still to be fully understood. Here, we explored the effect of summer temperature on egg diapause and the effect of winter temperature on egg survival. Field observations showed that the proportion of embryos that can complete development at the end of summer ranged from zero to nearly 90% depending on summer temperatures. A substantial shift in the rate of development from 20% to nearly 80% occurred in a thermal range of about 1 °C. On the contrary, overwinter egg survival was high and constant (90%) across a wide range of winter temperatures that go well beyond both the cold and warm thermal limits of the current species range. Overall, the results suggest a potential key role of summer temperature warming on the outbreak propensity of this species that is able to switch from a multiyear to an annual life cycle with just a 1–2 °C warming.     

Ecological optima and tolerances of Thelypteris limbosperma,Athyrium distentifolium,and Matteuccia struthiopteris along environmental gradients in Western Norway

The distribution and abundance of Thelypteris limbosperma, Athyrium distentifolium, and Matteuccia struthiopteris are modelled statistically in relation to 14 environmental variables along the major climatic, topographic, and edaphic gradients in western Norway. The data are from 624 stands from which measurements or estimates of mean January and mean July temperatures, humidity, altitude, aspect, and slope are available. From 182 of these stands eight soil variables have also been measured. The species responses are quantified by two numerical methods: Gaussian logit regression and weighted averaging (WA) regression. The estimated WA optima suggest that A. distentifolium has an ecological preference for low July and January temperatures, high altitudes, and soils of low-medium pH and base content. The species shows statistically significant Gaussian responses with summer temperature, humidity (= Martonnes humidity index), altitude, slope, aspect, pH, cation exchange capacity, and base saturation with optima of 8.7 °C, 188.9, 1220 m, 28°, 29°, 4.8, 13.77 mEq 100 g dry soil^-1, and 13.4%, respectively. These suggest that the occurrence and relative abundance of A. distentifolium are well predicted by summer temperature, topography, and soil pH and base status. T. limbosperma has WA optima that suggest that it favours moderately high winter and summer temperatures, high humidity, medium altitude, and soils of low pH and base content. It has significant Gaussian responses to summer temperature (optimum =12.6 °C), winter temperature (-1.8 °C), humidity (179.2), altitude (459.5 m), slope (22.5°), and Na (0.7 mg 100 g dry soil^-1). These suggest that climatic factors, altitude, and slope are significant predictors for its occurrence and abundance. M. struthiopteris has high WA optima for summer temperature, pH, Ca, Mg, K, Na, cation exchange capacity (CEC), and base saturation, and a low optima for humidity and winter temperature. Of these, summer temperature (16.0 °C), Ca (63.1 mg 100 g dry soil^-1), Mg (41.0 mg 100 g dry soil^-1), K (23.6 mg 100 g dry soil^-1), Na (5.0 mg 100 g dry soil^-1), CEC (60.7 mEq 100 g dry soil^-1), and base saturation (56.3%) have significant Gaussian logit responses, as do aspect (150.2°) and loss-on-ignition (9.4%). These results suggest that the occurrence and relative abundance of M. struthiopteris are well predicted by high soil base cations, a generally southern aspect, low organic content in the soil, and high July temperatures.     

Parental overwintering history affects the responses of Thlaspi arvense to warming winters in the North

The overwintering conditions of northern plants are expected to change substantially due to global warming. For perennial plants, winter warming may increase the risk of frost damage if the plants start dehardening prematurely. On the other hand, evergreen plants may remain photosynthetically active and thereby benefit from milder winters. The positive and negative effects of mild winters on annual plants remain, however, largely unknown. We postulated that summer annuals may be susceptible to frost damage if the seeds germinate during a mild spell in winter. Winter annuals may utilize a warm period for photosynthesis. These questions were addressed in two consecutive experiments in which pot-grown individuals of Thlaspi arvense that overwintered in the field were exposed to an elevated temperature for 8 days in growth chambers in mid-winter. No premature germination was observed in summer annuals. However, in accordance with our hypothesis, winter annuals started photosynthesising very rapidly upon exposure to elevated temperature. The winter warming treatment affected neither the total number of seeds produced nor the mean seed weight. These seeds, possessing divergent parental overwintering histories, were used as starting material for the second experiment. Seeds originating from both summer and winter annual plants germinated both in the autumn and in the following spring. We observed a major parental effect associated with the winter warming treatment. The warm spell experienced by the mother plant (either as a winter annual rosette or as a summer annual seed) reduced the proportion of autumn germination in the next generation. Only 43% of the seeds of summer annuals possessing a parental warming history germinated before the winter, whereas the germination percentage of seeds with no previous winter warming history was 71%. In the case of seeds collected from winter annual plants, 4% of the seeds germinated in autumn if the mother plants experienced the warming treatment during the previous winter, whereas the corresponding value was 37% if the mother plants did not experience warming. Our results show that summer and winter annual individuals show diverse responses to warm spells in winter. Since the responses are not limited only to the generation that actually experiences the warm spell, but also appear in their offspring, long-term studies consisting of several generations are called for.     

Did global warming and alien invasions affect surf zone hyperbenthic communities on sandy beaches in Belgium?

Due to global warming, southern hyperbenthic species were expected, which extend their distribution range northwards. It was also expected that alien species would have invaded the surf zone hyperbenthos. Therefore, the species composition of the hyperbenthos occurring along the Belgian coast was determined, and spatial and temporal patterns in community composition were assessed. The hyperbenthos was sampled with a hand-pushed sledge on 10 sandy beaches during summer 1995, winter 1996, summer 2009 and winter 2010. Neither alien species nor any southern species which recently extended its distribution range northwards were observed during the present study, indicating that alien species and global warming did not yet affect the species composition of the surf zone hyperbenthos along the Belgian coast. The hyperbenthic community was dominated by Mysida, while Amphipoda were the most diverse group. Multivariate analysis revealed that temporal patterns dominated over spatial patterns: winter and summer hyperbenthic communities clearly differed in species composition and different species assemblages were also observed between the first and the recent sampling campaigns. Although for several other groups, a decline in species richness has been observed closer to the mouth of the Westerschelde, no spatial gradient could be recognised for the surf zone hyperbenthos. Instead, it was found that species richness was positively related to beach width. It could be concluded that the species composition and the total abundance of surf zone hyperbenthic communities along sandy beaches of the Belgian coast strongly vary in space, but especially in time.     

Range dynamics of small mammals along an elevational gradient over an 80‐year interval

One expected response to observed global warming is an upslope shift of species elevational ranges. Here, we document changes in the elevational distributions of the small mammals within the Ruby Mountains in northeastern Nevada over an 80‐year interval. We quantified range shifts by comparing distributional records from recent comprehensive field surveys (2006–2008) to earlier surveys (1927–1929) conducted at identical and nearby locations. Collector field notes from the historical surveys provided detailed trapping records and locality information, and museum specimens enabled confirmation of species' identifications. To ensure that observed shifts in range did not result from sampling bias, we employed a binomial likelihood model (introduced here) using likelihood ratios to calculate confidence intervals around observed range limits. Climate data indicate increases in both precipitation and summer maximum temperature between sampling periods. Increases in winter minimum temperatures were only evident at mid to high elevations. Consistent with predictions of change associated with climate warming, we document upslope range shifts for only two mesic‐adapted species. In contrast, no xeric‐adapted species expanded their ranges upslope. Rather, they showed either static distributions over time or downslope contraction or expansion. We attribute these unexpected findings to widespread land‐use driven habitat change at lower elevations. Failure to account for land‐use induced changes in both baseline assessments and in predicting shifts in species distributions may provide misleading objectives for conservation policies and management practices.     

Developmental synchrony in multivoltine insects: generation separation versus smearing

Many insect species undergo multiple generations each year. They are found across biomes that vary in their strength of seasonality and, depending on location and species, can display a wide range of population dynamics. Some species exhibit cycles with distinct generations (developmental synchrony/generation separation), some exhibit overlapping generations with multiple life stages present simultaneously (generation smearing), while others have intermediate dynamics with early season separation followed by late season smearing. There are two main hypotheses to explain these dynamics. The first is the ‘seasonal disturbance’ hypothesis where winter synchronizes the developmental clock among individuals, which causes transient generation separation early in the season that erodes through the summer. The second is the ‘temperature destabilization’ hypothesis where warm temperatures during the summer cause population dynamics to become unstable giving rise to single generation cycles. Both hypotheses are supported by detailed mathematical theory incorporating mechanisms that are likely to drive dynamics in nature. In this review, we synthesize the theory and propose a conceptual framework—where each mechanism may be seen as an independent axis shaping the developmental (a)synchrony—that allows us to predict dynamic patterns from insect life-history characteristics. High fecundity, short adult life-span and strong seasonality enhance synchrony, while developmental plasticity and environmental heterogeneity erode synchrony. We further review current mathematical and statistical tools to study multi-generational dynamics and illustrate using case studies of multivoltine tortrix moths. By integrating two disparate bodies of theory, we articulate a deep connection among temperature, stability, developmental synchrony and inter-generational dynamics of multivoltine insects that is missing in current literature.     

A comparative ecological study of Norwegian mountain plants in relation to possible future climatic change

Mountain plants constitute an important part of the Norwegian flora. They are also believed to be the plant group in Norway most threatened by the expected climatic warming due to an enhanced greenhouse effect in the near future. In this study the distributions of 107 mountain Norwegian vascular plants were modelled in relation to present-day climate using Gaussian logit regression. Most species are found to have a surprisingly broad amplitude to mean July and January temperatures, suggesting that a 2°C increase in summer temperature and 4°C increase in winter temperature (as expected with a 2×CO₂ increase) may not have a dramatic direct effect on most of the species investigated. A comparative study between estimated July and January temperature optima and tolerances and other ecological attributes such as habitat characteristics, dispersal mechanisms, range sizes and other climatic optima and tolerances was done using multivariate analysis. The results suggest that species most vulnerable to climatic warming, namely the species with narrow July and January temperature tolerances, are characterized by small range sizes and small population sizes, i.e. they are nationally rare species. Furthermore, these vulnerable species are found in all habitats along the major moisture gradient in alpine vegetation. A classification of the species into Rabinowitz's seven forms of rarity confirms that the species most vulnerable to climatic warming are characterized by being habitat specialists with a small geographic range size.     

The effects of periodic warming on the survival and fecundity of Diadromus pulchellus during long-term storage

Biological control strategies capitalise on natural mechanisms such as predation and parasitism to reduce the need for chemical applications to control insect pests. In Canada, the parasitic wasp Diadromus pulchellus Wesmael (Hymenoptera: Ichneumonidae) is being investigated for its use in the biological control of an invasive crop pest, the leek moth, Acrolepiopsis assectella (Zeller) (Lepidoptera: Acrolepiidae). Large numbers of insects will be needed for releases to ensure that populations of D. pulchellus establish quickly and impact leek moth populations. Since the current culture is not producing the number of insects required for large-scale releases, the accumulation and storage of D. pulchellus might be a viable option to obtain ideal numbers. Currently, little is known about the optimal conditions for the long-term storage and release of D. pulchellus, which overwinter in nature as adults. Using insects from the active culture, the effect of intermittent, short-term warming on cold-stored adults was evaluated for survivorship and fecundity. In accordance with previous findings, females survived cold storage more readily than males. However, the warming regimes employed had no significant impacts on overall survivorship. Cold-stored females had reduced fecundity compared to females maintained in the culture, though no significant differences were noted between the treatments. In addition, the offspring sex-ratio for all treatments was male skewed. Thus, the warming procedures utilised provided no advantages over current techniques for the long-term storage of D. pulchellus intended for release.     

Diving through the thermal window: implications for a warming world

Population decline and a shift in the geographical distribution of some ectothermic animals have been attributed to climatic warming. Here, we show that rises in water temperature of a few degrees, while within the thermal window for locomotor performance, may be detrimental to diving behaviour in air-breathing ectotherms (turtles, crocodilians, marine iguanas, amphibians, snakes and lizards). Submergence times and internal and external body temperature were remotely recorded from freshwater crocodiles (Crocodylus johnstoni) while they free-ranged throughout their natural habitat in summer and winter. During summer, the crocodiles'' mean body temperature was 5.2 ± 0.1°C higher than in winter and the largest proportion of total dive time was composed of dive durations approximately 15 min less than in winter. Diving beyond 40 min during summer required the crocodiles to exponentially increase the time they spent on the surface after the dive, presumably to clear anaerobic debt. The relationship was not as significant in winter, even though a greater proportion of dives were of a longer duration, suggesting that diving lactate threshold (DLT) was reduced in summer compared with winter. Additional evidence for a reduced DLT in summer was derived from the stronger influence body mass exerted upon dive duration, compared to winter. The results demonstrate that the higher summer body temperature increased oxygen demand during the dive, implying that thermal acclimatization of the diving metabolic rate was inadequate. If the study findings are common among air-breathing diving ectotherms, then long-term warming of the aquatic environment may be detrimental to behavioural function and survivorship.     

Climatic and historical factors controlling horizontal and vertical distribution patterns of two sympatric beech species, Fagus crenata Blume and Fagus japonica Maxim., in eastern Japan

The Japanese Archipelago is unique when viewed in terms of beech flora, since two native species, Fagus crenata Blume and Fagus japonica Maxim., occur sympatrically there. In order to examine the most important environmental or historical factors restricting the geographical ranges of these beech species in eastern Japan (34–44°N and 137–143°E), horizontal and vertical distributions were comparatively examined in detail. The study used two kinds of data sets: (1) DS1, constructed by assembling data from literature, herbarium specimens, etc., and (2) DS2, based on a mesh vegetation database. The upper range limit was expected to be in equilibrium with the current climatic conditions for both species (correlated with temperature factors for F. crenata and with snow depth for F. japonica). The lower range limit was also expected to be in equilibrium with the present climatic condition for both species, but the importance of competition with evergreen trees was also suggested. Dispersal limitation and a topo-geological barrier (for F. japonica) were expected to strongly restrict the northern range limit. Under contrasting climatic conditions in winter (between the Pacific and the Sea of Japan sides in eastern Japan) the geographic ranges of the two beech species are differentiated because of a difference in tolerance to heavy snowfall. A range shift model that assumes a migration lag along a horizontal direction because of dispersal limitation can explain the observed distribution patterns of these beech species in relation to climatic change in the Quaternary.     

Common garden experiments reveal uncommon responses across temperatures,locations, and species of ants

Population changes and shifts in geographic range boundaries induced by climate change have been documented for many insect species. On the basis of such studies, ecological forecasting models predict that, in the absence of dispersal and resource barriers, many species will exhibit large shifts in abundance and geographic range in response to warming. However, species are composed of individual populations, which may be subject to different selection pressures and therefore may be differentially responsive to environmental change. Asystematic responses across populations and species to warming will alter ecological communities differently across space. Common garden experiments can provide a more mechanistic understanding of the causes of compositional and spatial variation in responses to warming. Such experiments are useful for determining if geographically separated populations and co‐occurring species respond differently to warming, and they provide the opportunity to compare effects of warming on fitness (survivorship and reproduction). We exposed colonies of two common ant species in the eastern United States, Aphaenogaster rudis and Temnothorax curvispinosus, collected along a latitudinal gradient from Massachusetts to North Carolina, to growth chamber treatments that simulated current and projected temperatures in central Massachusetts and central North Carolina within the next century. Regardless of source location, colonies of A. rudis, a keystone seed disperser, experienced high mortality and low brood production in the warmest temperature treatment. Colonies of T. curvispinosus from cooler locations experienced increased mortality in the warmest rearing temperatures, but colonies from the warmest locales did not. Our results suggest that populations of some common species may exhibit uniform declines in response to warming across their geographic ranges, whereas other species will respond differently to warming in different parts of their geographic ranges. Our results suggest that differential responses of populations and species must be incorporated into projections of range shifts in a changing climate.     

Wolves,white‐tailed deer,and beaver: implications of seasonal prey switching for woodland caribou declines

Population increases of primary prey can negatively impact alternate prey populations via demographic and behavioural responses of a shared predator through apparent competition. Seasonal variation in prey selection patterns by predators also can affect secondary and incidental prey by reducing spatial separation. Global warming and landscape changes in Alberta's bitumen sands have resulted in prey enrichment, which is changing the large mammal predator–prey system and causing declines in woodland caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou populations. We assessed seasonal patterns of prey use and spatial selection by wolves Canis lupus in two woodland caribou ranges in northeastern Alberta, Canada, that have undergone prey enrichment following recent white‐tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus invasion. We determined whether risk of predation for caribou (incidental prey) and the proportion of wolf‐caused‐caribou mortalities varied with season. We found that wolves showed seasonal variation in primary prey use, with deer and beaver Castor canadensis being the most common prey items in wolf diet in winter and summer, respectively. These seasonal dietary patterns were reflected in seasonal wolf spatial resource selection and resulted in contrasting spatial relationships between wolves and caribou. During winter, wolf selection for areas used by deer maintained strong spatial separation between wolves and caribou, whereas wolf selection for areas used by beaver in summer increased the overlap with caribou. Changing patterns in wolf resource selection were reflected by caribou mortality patterns, with 76.2% of 42 adult female caribou mortalities occurring in summer. Understanding seasonal patterns of predation following prey enrichment in a multiprey system is essential when assessing the effect of predation on an incidental prey species. Our results support the conclusion that wolves are proximately responsible for woodland caribou population declines throughout much of their range.