Optimal harvesting of prey–predator system with interval biological parameters: A bioeconomic model

The paper presents the study of one prey one predator harvesting model with imprecise biological parameters. Due to the lack of precise numerical information of the biological parameters such as prey population growth rate, predator population decay rate and predation coefficients, we consider the model with imprecise data as form of an interval in nature. Many authors have studied prey–predator harvesting model in different form, here we consider a simple prey–predator model under impreciseness and introduce parametric functional form of an interval and then study the model. We identify the equilibrium points of the model and discuss their stabilities. The existence of bionomic equilibrium of the model is discussed. We study the optimal harvest policy and obtain the solution in the interior equilibrium using Pontryagin’s maximum principle. Numerical examples are presented to support the proposed model.     

Effect of predator density dependent dispersal of prey on stability of a predator-prey system

This work presents a predator-prey Lotka-Volterra model in a two patch environment. The model is a set of four ordinary differential equations that govern the prey and predator population densities on each patch. Predators disperse with constant migration rates, while prey dispersal is predator density-dependent. When the predator density is large, the dispersal of prey is more likely to occur. We assume that prey and predator dispersal is faster than the local predator-prey interaction on each patch. Thus, we take advantage of two time scales in order to reduce the complete model to a system of two equations governing the total prey and predator densities. The stability analysis of the aggregated model shows that a unique strictly positive equilibrium exists. This equilibrium may be stable or unstable. A Hopf bifurcation may occur, leading the equilibrium to be a centre. If the two patches are similar, the predator density dependent dispersal of prey has a stabilizing effect on the predator-prey system.     

自然生态条件下鼠类数量与天敌数量的平衡关系

近些年,越来越多的科学家将天敌对鼠害的控制作用纳入综合防治的总体方案之中,大部分学者倾向认为,天敌是鼠类种群数量调节的主要因素之一。研究天敌在鼠类种群动态中所起的作用,不仅对鼠害防治工作具有重要意义,而且有助于生态学理论的发展。本文在有关天敌对鼠类种...     

Impact of Allee effect on an eco-epidemiological system

In this paper, we propose a general ratio-dependent prey-predator model with disease in predator subject to the strong Allee effect in prey. We obtain the complete dynamics of both models: (a) full model with Allee effect; (b) full model without Allee effect. Model (a) may have more than one interior equilibrium point, but model (b) has only one interior equilibrium point. Numerical results reveal that the coexistence of all the populations at the endemic state is possible for both the models. But for the model with Allee effect, the coexistence can be destroyed by an increased supply of alternative food for the predators. It can also be proved that for the full model with Allee effect, the disease can be suppressed under certain parametric conditions. Also by comparing models (a) and (b), we conclude that Allee effect can create or destroy the interior attractor. Finally, we have studied the disease free-submodel (prey and susceptible predator model) with and without Allee effect. The comparative study between these two submodels leads to the following conclusions: 1) In the presence of Allee effect, the number of interior equilibrium points can change from zero to two whereas the submodel without Allee effect has unique interior equilibrium point; 2) Both with and without Allee effect, initial conditions play an important role on the survival and extinction of prey as well as its corresponding predator; 3) In the presence of Allee effect, bi-stability occurs with stable or periodic coexistence of prey and susceptible predator and the extinction of prey and susceptible predator; 4) Allee effect can generate or destroy the interior equilibrium points.     

A stochastic approach to predator-prey models

A deterministic investigation of a linear differential equation system which describes predator vs prey behavior as a function of equilibrium densities and reproductive rates is given. A more realistic structure of this model in a stochastic framework is presented. The reproductive rates and initial population sizes are considered to be random variables and their probabilistic behavior characterized by various joint probability distributions. The deterministic behaviors of the prey and predator species as functions of time are compared with the mean behaviors in the stochastic model.     

鼠类-天敌系统渐近稳定性的数学分析

天敌能否控制鼠害是鼠害防治实践中最重要的课题之一,通过建立鼠类--天敌系统的捕食--食饵离散模型,推导出自然生态条件下鼠类数量与天敌数量的平衡关系以及鼠类--天敌系统渐近稳定的判定条件,数学分析表明,天敌对鼠的数值反应、功能反应以及鼠类种群繁殖调节是系统能够渐近稳定的决定因素。     

Immigration can destabilize tri-trophic interactions: implications for conservation of top predators

Top predators often have large home ranges and thus are especially vulnerable to habitat loss and fragmentation. Increasing connectance among habitat patches is therefore a common conservation strategy, based in part on models showing that increased migration between subpopulations can reduce vulnerability arising from population isolation. Although three-dimensional models are appropriate for exploring consequences to top predators, the effects of immigration on tri-trophic interactions have rarely been considered. To explore the effects of immigration on the equilibrium abundances of top predators, we studied the effects of immigration in the three-dimensional Rosenzweig-MacArthur model. To investigate the stability of the top predator equilibrium, we used MATCONT to perform a bifurcation analysis. For some combinations of model parameters with low rates of top predator immigration, population trajectories spiral towards a stable focus. Holding other parameters constant, as immigration rate is increased, a supercritical Hopf bifurcation results in a stable limit cycle and thus top predator populations that cycle between high and low abundances. Furthermore, bistability arises as immigration of the intermediate predator is increased. In this case, top predators may exist at relatively low abundances while prey become extinct, or for other initial conditions, the relatively higher top predator abundance controls intermediate predators allowing for non-zero prey population abundance and increased diversity. Thus, our results reveal one of two outcomes when immigration is added to the model. First, over some range of top predator immigration rates, population abundance cycles between high and low values, making extinction from the trough of such cycles more likely than otherwise. Second, for relatively higher intermediate predator migration rates, top predators may exist at low values in a truncated system with impoverished diversity, again with extinction more likely.     

Prey dispersal and predator persistence

To understand how patchiness influences population dynamics of a tri-trophic interaction, a tractable model is formulated in terms of differential equations. Motivated by the structure of systems such as plants, phytophagous mites and predatory mites, the model takes dispersal into account at the middle trophic level. The effect of dispersal for the middle level in a tri-trophic system could be either stabilising or destabilising since the middle level acts both as prey and as predator. First a simple model with logistic growth for the lowest level is formulated. A model with logistic growth for the lowest level and instantaneous dispersal has a globally stable three-species equilibrium, if this equilibrium exists. Addition of a middle level dispersal phase of non-negligible duration influences equilibrium stability. In the absence of the top trophic level a limit cycle can occur, caused by the delay that exists in the reaction of the middle level to the changes in the lowest level. With low predator efficiency, it is also possible to have an unstable three-species equilibrium. So addition of a middle level dispersal phase of non-negligible duration can work destabilising. Next the persistence of the third trophic level is studied. Even when the three-species equilibrium exists, the third trophic level need not be persistent. A two-species limit cycle can keep its stability when a three-species equilibrium exists; the system is then bistable. It is argued that such a bistability can offer an alternative explanation for pesticide-induced outbreaks of spider mites and failure of predator introduction.     

Effect of resource subsidies on predator–prey population dynamics: a mathematical model

The influence of a resource subsidy on predator–prey interactions is examined using a mathematical model. The model arises from the study of a biological system involving arctic foxes (predator), lemmings (prey), and seal carcasses (subsidy). In one version of the model, the predator, prey and subsidy all occur in the same location; in a second version, the predator moves between two patches, one containing only the prey and the other containing only the subsidy. Criteria for feasibility and stability of the different equilibrium states are studied both analytically and numerically. At small subsidy input rates, there is a minimum prey carrying capacity needed to support both predator and prey. At intermediate subsidy input rates, the predator and prey can always coexist. At high subsidy input rates, the prey cannot persist even at high carrying capacities. As predator movement increases, the dynamic stability of the predator–prey-subsidy interactions also increases.     

Cancer self remission and tumor stability-- a stochastic approach

The paper aims to express the spontaneous regression and progression of a malignant tumor system as a prey--predator like system. The model is a three dimensional deterministic system, consisting of tumor cells, hunting predator cells and resting predator cells. Local stability analysis is performed along with numerical simulations to support the analytical findings. Moreover, the deterministic model is extended to a stochastic one allowing random fluctuations around the positive interior equilibrium. The stochastic stability properties of the model are investigated both analytically and numerically. The thresholds obtained from our study may be helpful to control the malignant tumor growth.     

Oscillations in a size-structured prey-predator model

This article introduces a predator–prey model with the prey structured by body size, based on reports in the literature that predation rates are prey-size specific. The model is built on the foundation of the one-species physiologically structured models studied earlier. Three types of equilibria are found: extinction, multiple prey-only equilibria and possibly multiple predator–prey coexistence equilibria. The stabilities of the equilibria are investigated. Comparison is made with the underlying ODE Lotka–Volterra model. It turns out that the ODE model can exhibit sustain oscillations if there is an Allee effect in the net reproduction rate, that is the net reproduction rate grows for some range of the prey’s population size. In contrast, it is shown that the structured PDE model can exhibit sustain oscillations even if the net reproductive rate is strictly declining with prey population size. We find that predation, even size-non-specific linear predation can destabilize a stable prey-only equilibrium, if reproduction is size specific and limited to individuals of large enough size. Furthermore, we show that size-specific predation can also destabilize the predator–prey equilibrium in the PDE model. We surmise that size-specific predation allows for temporary prey escape which is responsible for destabilization in the predator–prey dynamics.     

Modeling and analysis of a predator-prey model with disease in the prey

A system of retarded functional differential equations is proposed as a predator-prey model with disease in the prey. Mathematical analyses of the model equations with regard to invariance of non-negativity, boundedness of solutions, nature of equilibria, permanence and global stability are analyzed. If the coefficient in conversing prey into predator k=k(0) is constant (independent of delay tau;, gestation period), we show that positive equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when time delay tau; is suitable small, while a loss of stability by a Hopf bifurcation can occur as the delay increases. If k=k(0)e(-dtau;) (d is the death rate of predator), numerical simulation suggests that time delay has both destabilizing and stabilizing effects, that is, positive equilibrium, if it exists, will become stable again for large time delay. A concluding discussion is then presented.     

Effects of a disease affecting a predator on the dynamics of a predator-prey system

We study the effects of a disease affecting a predator on the dynamics of a predator-prey system. We couple an SIRS model applied to the predator population, to a Lotka-Volterra model. The SIRS model describes the spread of the disease in a predator population subdivided into susceptible, infected and removed individuals. The Lotka-Volterra model describes the predator-prey interactions. We consider two time scales, a fast one for the disease and a comparatively slow one for predator-prey interactions and for predator mortality. We use the classical “aggregation method” in order to obtain a reduced equivalent model. We show that there are two possible asymptotic behaviors: either the predator population dies out and the prey tends to its carrying capacity, or the predator and prey coexist. In this latter case, the predator population tends either to a “disease-free” or to a “disease-endemic” state. Moreover, the total predator density in the disease-endemic state is greater than the predator density in the “disease-free” equilibrium (DFE).     

Obligate mutualism with a predator: Stability and persistence of three-species models

We present a general model for three interacting populations, where one population, called a mutualist, benefits a predator in its interaction with the prey. Biologically, there are four different ways in which the mutualist could benefit the predator: by enhancing prey growth rate, by enhancing the rate of prey capture, by providing an alternative food supply for the predator, and by enhancing the efficiency of utilization of prey, once they are ingested. We discuss examples of each type of interaction. We restrict our model to those situations in which the predator cannot survive on the prey in the absence of the mutualist. Therefore, if mutualism exists, it is obligate for the predator. Other conditions of the model include the dynamics of the prey and the mutualist alone and together in the absence of the predator. Given additional reasonable restrictions on the model, we determine the conditions for persistence, where persistence is defined as the continued existence of all three populations without any of them going extinct. There are two ways in which survival may arise in these models. Under one set of conditions, which is equivalent to the predator being able to invade a prey-mutualist system when rare, persistence will occur for any set of positive critical population sizes. Alternatively, survival will occur if there is an asymptotically stable interior equilibrium. However, the conditions for this are complex, and survival may occur only for initial populations in a limited region around the equilibrium.     

The Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model with foraging-predation risk trade-offs

This article studies the effects of adaptive changes in predator and/or prey activities on the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey population dynamics. The model assumes the classical foraging-predation risk trade-offs: increased activity increases population growth rate, but it also increases mortality rate. The model considers three scenarios: prey only are adaptive, predators only are adaptive, and both species are adaptive. Under all these scenarios, the neutral stability of the classical Lotka-Volterra model is partially lost because the amplitude of maximum oscillation in species numbers is bounded, and the bound is independent of the initial population numbers. Moreover, if both prey and predators behave adaptively, the neutral stability can be completely lost, and a globally stable equilibrium would appear. This is because prey and/or predator switching leads to a piecewise constant prey (predator) isocline with a vertical (horizontal) part that limits the amplitude of oscillations in prey and predator numbers, exactly as suggested by Rosenzweig and MacArthur in their seminal work on graphical stability analysis of predator-prey systems. Prey and predator activities in a long-term run are calculated explicitly. This article shows that predictions based on short-term behavioral experiments may not correspond to long-term predictions when population dynamics are considered.     

Effect of resource subsidies on predator-prey population dynamics: a mathematical model

The influence of a resource subsidy on predator-prey interactions is examined using a mathematical model. The model arises from the study of a biological system involving arctic foxes (predator), lemmings (prey), and seal carcasses (subsidy). In one version of the model, the predator, prey and subsidy all occur in the same location; in a second version, the predator moves between two patches, one containing only the prey and the other containing only the subsidy. Criteria for feasibility and stability of the different equilibrium states are studied both analytically and numerically. At small subsidy input rates, there is a minimum prey carrying capacity needed to support both predator and prey. At intermediate subsidy input rates, the predator and prey can always coexist. At high subsidy input rates, the prey cannot persist even at high carrying capacities. As predator movement increases, the dynamic stability of the predator-prey-subsidy interactions also increases.     

Stochastic predation exposes prey to predator pits and local extinction

Understanding how predators affect prey populations is a fundamental goal for ecologists and wildlife managers. A well-known example of regulation by predators is the predator pit, where two alternative stable states exist and prey can be held at a low density equilibrium by predation if they are unable to pass the threshold needed to attain a high density equilibrium. While empirical evidence for predator pits exists, deterministic models of predator–prey dynamics with realistic parameters suggest they should not occur in these systems. Because stochasticity can fundamentally change the dynamics of deterministic models, we investigated if incorporating stochasticity in predation rates would change the dynamics of deterministic models and allow predator pits to emerge. Based on realistic parameters from an elk–wolf system, we found predator pits were predicted only when stochasticity was included in the model. Predator pits emerged in systems with highly stochastic predation and high carrying capacities, but as carrying capacity decreased, low density equilibria with a high likelihood of extinction became more prevalent. We found that incorporating stochasticity is essential to fully understand alternative stable states in ecological systems, and due to the interaction between top–down and bottom–up effects on prey populations, habitat management and predator control could help prey to be resilient to predation stochasticity.     

Effects of density-dependent migrations on stability of a two-patch predator-prey model

We consider a predator-prey model in a two-patch environment and assume that migration between patches is faster than prey growth, predator mortality and predator-prey interactions. Prey (resp. predator) migration rates are considered to be predator (resp. prey) density-dependent. Prey leave a patch at a migration rate proportional to the local predator density. Predators leave a patch at a migration rate inversely proportional to local prey population density. Taking advantage of the two different time scales, we use aggregation methods to obtain a reduced (aggregated) model governing the total prey and predator densities. First, we show that for a large class of density-dependent migration rules for predators and prey there exists a unique and stable equilibrium for migration. Second, a numerical bifurcation analysis is presented. We show that bifurcation diagrams obtained from the complete and aggregated models are consistent with each other for reasonable values of the ratio between the two time scales, fast for migration and slow for local demography. Our results show that, under some particular conditions, the density dependence of migrations can generate a limit cycle. Also a co-dim two Bautin bifurcation point is observed in some range of migration parameters and this implies that bistability of an equilibrium and limit cycle is possible.     

Stabilizing Effect of Cannibalism in a Two Stages Population Model

In this paper we build a prey–predator model with discrete weight structure for the predator. This model will conserve the number of individuals and the biomass and both growth and reproduction of the predator will depend on the food ingested. Moreover the model allows cannibalism which means that the predator can eat the prey but also other predators. We will focus on a simple version with two weight classes or stage (larvae and adults) and present some general mathematical results. In the last part, we will assume that the dynamics of the prey is fast compared to the predator’s one to go further in the results and eventually conclude that under some conditions, cannibalism can stabilize the system: more precisely, an unstable equilibrium without cannibalism will become almost globally stable with some cannibalism. Some numerical simulations are done to illustrate this result.     

具有时滞的一捕食者-两食饵比率型生态系统的持久性与稳定性

研究一个具有时滞的一捕食者－两食饵比率型生态系统,证明了该系统在适当条件下的一致持久性。通过构造Lyapunov泛函,得到了该系统正平衡点局部渐近稳定的充分条件。