Epidemiological determinants of the pattern and magnitude of the vCJD epidemic in Great Britain.

Understanding the epidemiology and aetiology of new-variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob (vCJD) disease in humans has become increasingly important given the scientific evidence linking it to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle and hence the wide exposure of the population of Great Britain (GB) to potentially infectious tissue. The recent analysis undertaken to determine the risk to the population from dorsal route ganglia illustrated the danger in presenting point estimates rather than ranges of scenarios in the face of uncertainty. We present a mathematical template that relates the past pattern of the BSE epidemic in cattle to the future course of any vCJD epidemic in humans, and use extensive scenario analysis to explore the wide range of possible outcomes given the uncertainty in epidemiological determinants. We demonstrate that the average number of humans infected by one infectious bovine and the incubation period distribution are the two epidemiological factors that have the greatest impact on epidemic size and duration. Using the time-series of the BSE epidemic and the cases seen to date, we show that the minimum length of the incubation period is approximately nine years, and that at least 20% of the cases diagnosed to date were exposed prior to 1986. We also demonstrate that the current age distribution of vCJD cases can only arise if younger people were either exposed to a greater extent, more susceptible to infection, or have shorter incubation periods. Extensive scenario analyses show that given the information currently available, the very high degree of uncertainty in the future size of the epidemic will remain for the next 3-5 years. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this uncertainty is unlikely to be reduced by mass screening for late-stage infection.     

Feed-borne transmission and case clustering of BSE

An unresolved issue in the epidemiology of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the UK is what precisely determines the degree to which cases of disease in cattle are clustered within herds throughout the course of the epidemic. This paper presents an analysis of feed-borne transmission at the herd level and tests various models of case-clustering mechanisms, associated with heterogeneity in exposure to infectious feed, against observed epidemic pattern. We use an age-structured metapopulation framework in which the recycling of animal tissue between herds via feed producers is explicitly described. We explore two alternative assumptions for the scaling with herd size of the within-herd risk of exposure of an animal to infectious material. We find that whereas exposure heterogeneity caused by variation in feed and offal processing methods and by variation in per-animal feed uptake can explain the pattern of case clustering seen in the BSE epidemic, exposure heterogeneity due to the aggregation of infectivity within feed cannot.     

Assessment of the risk posed by bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle in Great Britain and the impact of potential changes to current control measures

We extended an existing back-calculation model to analyse data on reported clinical cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), data from random testing of healthy animals slaughtered in abattoirs and testing data from animals reported as sick or dying on the farm. Extensive analysis of demographic data was also undertaken. We estimated past and current BSE infection prevalences in the cattle population and the degree of case under-ascertainment resulting from excess mortality in cattle near to disease onset. Ongoing levels of human exposure to BSE infectivity were also estimated, together with the effect on these of a range of possible exposure-reduction strategies that might replace the current rule banning tissue from cattle over 30 months (OTM) of age from the human food supply. While any policy change that allows a wider age range of animals into the human food supply will increase levels of human exposure to infectivity, the risk posed by such increases is small by comparison with historical exposure levels. Making the pessimistic assumption that there will be 5000 deaths during the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) epidemic in total, our analysis indicates that replacement of the OTM rule with testing would result in 0.04 additional vCJD deaths over the next 60 years. However, there is substantial (more than 40-fold) uncertainty surrounding this estimate, the sources of which are discussed.     

The transmission dynamics of BSE and vCJD

The bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in cattle has had a huge economic impact on the agricultural industries across Europe. Furthermore, scientific evidence now strongly supporting a link between a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) and consumption of BSE-infected animals has further heightened the need both to understand the transmission of these new diseases and to improve control measures to protect public health. In this paper we review work undertaken by our group using epidemiological models to understand the transmission dynamics of BSE and vCJD. We present new estimates of the future number of cases of BSE and the number of infected animals slaughtered for consumption for Great Britain, and summarise similar analyses undertaken for Northern Ireland, Ireland, Portugal and France. We also consider the epidemiological determinants of the future course of the vCJD epidemic, including the age and genetic characteristics of the confirmed cases, and present predictions of future case numbers.     

Implications of BSE infection screening data for the scale of the British BSE epidemic and current European infection levels

The incidence of confirmed clinical cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in Great Britain continues to decline, but the recent discovery of cases in previously unaffected countries (including Israel, Japan, Poland, Slovenia and Spain) has heightened concerns that BSE transmission was more intense and widespread than previously thought. We use back-calculation methods to undertake an integrated analysis of data on infection prevalence in apparently healthy cattle and the incidence of confirmed clinical disease. The results indicate substantial underascertainment of clinical cases over the course of the British epidemic, and consequently that two- to fourfold more animals were infected than previously estimated. Upper bounds on the predicted size of the new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) epidemic are unaffected, as the prediction methods employed fit to observed vCJD mortality data, and are not sensitive to estimates of the absolute magnitude of past human exposure to BSE-infected cattle, only to relative changes in exposure through time. We also estimate the per-head incidence of infection in cattle born between 1993 and 1997 in other European Union countries, using data on the testing of apparently healthy cattle slaughtered for consumption. Infection incidence for cattle born after mid-1996 was highest in Greece, Italy and Belgium, with Spain and The Netherlands having intermediate levels, and estimates for Great Britain, Germany and France being comparably low.     

Sheep and goat BSE propagate more efficiently than cattle BSE in human PrP transgenic mice

A new variant of Creutzfeldt Jacob Disease (vCJD) was identified in humans and linked to the consumption of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE)-infected meat products. Recycling of ruminant tissue in meat and bone meal (MBM) has been proposed as origin of the BSE epidemic. During this epidemic, sheep and goats have been exposed to BSE-contaminated MBM. It is well known that sheep can be experimentally infected with BSE and two field BSE-like cases have been reported in goats. In this work we evaluated the human susceptibility to small ruminants-passaged BSE prions by inoculating two different transgenic mouse lines expressing the methionine (Met) allele of human PrP at codon 129 (tg650 and tg340) with several sheep and goat BSE isolates and compared their transmission characteristics with those of cattle BSE. While the molecular and neuropathological transmission features were undistinguishable and similar to those obtained after transmission of vCJD in both transgenic mouse lines, sheep and goat BSE isolates showed higher transmission efficiency on serial passaging compared to cattle BSE. We found that this higher transmission efficiency was strongly influenced by the ovine PrP sequence, rather than by other host species-specific factors. Although extrapolation of results from prion transmission studies by using transgenic mice has to be done very carefully, especially when human susceptibility to prions is analyzed, our results clearly indicate that Met129 homozygous individuals might be susceptible to a sheep or goat BSE agent at a higher degree than to cattle BSE, and that these agents might transmit with molecular and neuropathological properties indistinguishable from those of vCJD. Our results suggest that the possibility of a small ruminant BSE prion as vCJD causal agent could not be ruled out, and that the risk for humans of a potential goat and/or sheep BSE agent should not be underestimated.     

Sheep-passaged bovine spongiform encephalopathy agent exhibits altered pathobiological properties in bovine-PrP transgenic mice

Sheep can be experimentally infected with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), and the ensuing disease is similar to scrapie in terms of pathogenesis and clinical signs. BSE infection in sheep is an animal and human health concern. In this study, the transmission in BoPrP-Tg110 mice of prions from BSE-infected sheep was examined and compared to the transmission of original cattle BSE in cattle and sheep scrapie prions. Our results indicate no transmission barrier for sheep BSE prions to infect BoPrP-Tg110 mice, but the course of the disease is accelerated compared to the effects of the original BSE isolate. The shortened incubation period of sheep BSE in the model was conserved in subsequent passage in BoPrP-Tg110 mice, indicating that it is not related to infectious titer differences. Biochemical signature, lesion profile, and PrP(Sc) deposition pattern of both cattle and sheep BSE were similar. In contrast, all three sheep scrapie isolates tested showed an evident transmission barrier and further adaptation in subsequent passage. Taken together, those data indicate that BSE agent can be altered by crossing a species barrier, raising concerns about the virulence of this new prion towards other species, including humans. The BoPrP-Tg110 mouse bioassay should be considered as a valuable tool for discriminating scrapie and BSE in sheep.     

Towards a quantitative risk assessment for BSE in sewage sludge

AIMS: The aim is to determine the risk of transmission of BSE to humans and cattle through the application of sewage sludge to agricultural land. METHODS AND RESULTS: A quantitative risk assessment based on the Source-Pathway-Receptor approach is developed. Central to the model is the estimation of the arithmetic mean concentration of BSE agent in sewage sludge. The main sources of uncertainty in the risk assessment are the degree to which sewage sludge treatment destroys BSE agent, whether there is a threshold dose for initiation of BSE infection in cattle, and most importantly, the amount of brain and spinal cord material which enters the sewer from the abattoir. Assuming 1% of brain and spinal cord is lost to the sewer from abattoirs, the model predicts a risk of BSE transmission of 7.1 x 10(-5) cow(-1) year(-1) for cattle grazing on land to which sewage sludge has been applied. CONCLUSION: The risks to humans through consumption of vegetable crops are acceptably low. Although the risks to cattle are higher, because of higher exposure to soil and greater susceptibility, the model demonstrates that sewage sludge alone cannot sustain the BSE epidemic in the UK cattle herd. Furthermore, the model suggests that recycling of BSE agent through sewage sludge will not sustain endemic levels of BSE in the UK cattle herd. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: The conclusions are consistent with the findings from epidemiological studies which so far have not detected horizontal transmission of BSE (which would include transmission from contaminated pastures). The model demonstrates the importance of containment of brain and spinal cord within the abattoir.     

Different prion disease phenotypes result from inoculation of cattle with two temporally separated sources of sheep scrapie from Great Britain

Background

Given the theoretical proposal that bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) could have originated from sheep scrapie, this study investigated the pathogenicity for cattle, by intracerebral (i.c.) inoculation, of two pools of scrapie agents sourced in Great Britain before and during the BSE epidemic. Two groups of ten cattle were each inoculated with pools of brain material from sheep scrapie cases collected prior to 1975 and after 1990. Control groups comprised five cattle inoculated with sheep brain free from scrapie, five cattle inoculated with saline, and for comparison with BSE, naturally infected cattle and cattle i.c. inoculated with BSE brainstem homogenate from a parallel study. Phenotypic characterisation of the disease forms transmitted to cattle was conducted by morphological, immunohistochemical, biochemical and biological methods.

Results

Disease occurred in 16 cattle, nine inoculated with the pre-1975 inoculum and seven inoculated with the post-1990 inoculum, with four cattle still alive at 83 months post challenge (as at June 2006). The different inocula produced predominantly two different disease phenotypes as determined by histopathological, immunohistochemical and Western immunoblotting methods and biological characterisation on transmission to mice, neither of which was identical to BSE. Whilst the disease presentation was uniform in all scrapie-affected cattle of the pre-1975 group, the post-1990 inoculum produced a more variable disease, with two animals sharing immunohistochemical and molecular profile characteristics with animals in the pre-1975 group.

Conclusion

The study has demonstrated that cattle inoculated with different pooled scrapie sources can develop different prion disease phenotypes, which were not consistent with the phenotype of BSE of cattle and whose isolates did not have the strain typing characteristics of the BSE agent on transmission to mice.     

Genotype-dependent Molecular Evolution of Sheep Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) Prions in Vitro Affects Their Zoonotic Potential

Prion diseases are rare fatal neurological conditions of humans and animals, one of which (variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease) is known to be a zoonotic form of the cattle disease bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). What makes one animal prion disease zoonotic and others not is poorly understood, but it appears to involve compatibility between the prion strain and the host prion protein sequence. Concerns have been raised that the United Kingdom sheep flock may have been exposed to BSE early in the cattle BSE epidemic and that serial BSE transmission in sheep might have resulted in adaptation of the agent, which may have come to phenotypically resemble scrapie while maintaining its pathogenicity for humans. We have modeled this scenario in vitro. Extrapolation from our results suggests that if BSE were to infect sheep in the field it may, with time and in some sheep genotypes, become scrapie-like at the molecular level. However, the results also suggest that if BSE in sheep were to come to resemble scrapie it would lose its ability to affect humans.     

The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in Great Britain. I. Epidemiological processes,demography of cattle and approaches to control by culling.

This paper explores the key epidemiological processes and demographic factors that determined the pattern of transmission of the aetiological agent of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle herds in Great Britain (GB). The analyses presented utilize data from published and unpublished experimental studies and from the GB central database of confirmed BSE cases. We review the experimental and epidemiological evidence that has both confirmed indirect horizontal transmission via the consumption of infectious material as the major transmission route and provided information on the duration and variability of the dose-dependent incubation period of BSE in cattle. The epidemiological and genetic data pertaining to the possible existence of maternal transmission and/or genetically variable susceptibility to infection is discussed. The demography of British cattle is characterized and the impacts of key demographic features on the observed epidemic profile are discussed. In the main BSE case database, analyses reveal that BSE cases cluster significantly at both the holding and county scale. Furthermore, analysis of longitudinal patterns reveal substantial temporal within-holding correlation. Such clustering of cases suggests a highly heterogeneous infection process. The paper ends with a discussion of how analyses of spatio-temporal clustering inform the design of targeted culling programmes aimed at reducing future disease incidence. We show how the retrospective implementation of culling policies on the BSE case database allows the qualitative evaluation of policy performance, but that model predictions of future trends in case incidence are required to estimate the precise impact of any current or future programme.     

Prions: where do we stand 20 years after the appearance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy?

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) identified twenty years ago in the British cattle herds. Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) is a TSE that occurs in humans. In 1996, scientists found a possible link between BSE and a new variant of CJD (vCJD). The fact that the non conventional infectious agent of TSE, named prions, could cross the species barrier from cattle to human through meat consumption, raised a tremendous concern for public safety in Europe. This led to the development in the following two decades of substantial and expensive measures to contain BSE and prevent its transmission to humans. In parallel, scientific programs have been funded to progress through the comprehension of the physiopathology of these fatal disorders. In Europe, the BSE epidemics is now ending and the number of cases is decreasing thanks to the strict control of animal foodstuff that was the main source of prion contamination. Only a small number of vCJD have been detected, however, additional concerns have been raised recently for public safety as secondary transmission of CJD through medical procedure and blood transfusion is possible. In addition, the possibility that the BSE was transmitted to other animals including small ruminants is also worrisome. Research efforts are now focussing on decontamination and ante mortem diagnosis of TSE to prevent animal and human transmission. However, needs for fundamental research are still important as many questions remain to be addressed to understand the mechanism of prion transmission, as well as its pathogenesis.     

The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in Great Britain. II. Model construction and analysis of transmission dynamics.

Mathematical model that describe the key processes determining the pattern of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in British cattle are derived that allow for infection from feed as well as maternal and direct horizontal transmission. Heterogeneous susceptibility classes are also incorporated into the analysis. Maximum likelihood methods are used to estimate parameters and to obtain confidence intervals from available experimental and epidemiological data. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis of all model parameters and distributional assumptions is presented. Additional validation is provided by fitting the model to independent data collected in Northern Ireland. Model estimates and predictions based on BSE case data for Great Britain and Northern Ireland, together with their implications, are reviewed, and future research priorities discussed.     

A mathematical model for malaria involving differential susceptibility, exposedness and infectivity of human host

The main purpose of this article is to formulate a deterministic mathematical model for the transmission of malaria that considers two host types in the human population. The first type is called "non-immune" comprising all humans who have never acquired immunity against malaria and the second type is called "semi-immune". Non-immune are divided into susceptible, exposed and infectious and semi-immune are divided into susceptible, exposed, infectious and immune. We obtain an explicit formula for the reproductive number, R(0) which is a function of the weight of the transmission semi-immune-mosquito-semi-immune, R(0a), and the weight of the transmission non-immune-mosquito-non-immune, R(0e). Then, we study the existence of endemic equilibria by using bifurcation analysis. We give a simple criterion when R(0) crosses one for forward and backward bifurcation. We explore the possibility of a control for malaria through a specific sub-group such as non-immune or semi-immune or mosquitoes.     

Identification of a heritable polymorphism in bovine PRNP associated with genetic transmissible spongiform encephalopathy: evidence of heritable BSE

Background

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) of cattle. Classical BSE is associated with ingestion of BSE-contaminated feedstuffs. H- and L-type BSE, collectively known as atypical BSE, differ from classical BSE by displaying a different disease phenotype and they have not been linked to the consumption of contaminated feed. Interestingly, the 2006 US H-type atypical BSE animal had a polymorphism at codon 211 of the bovine prion gene resulting in a glutamic acid to lysine substitution (E211K). This substitution is analogous a human polymorphism associated with the most prevalent form of heritable TSE in humans, and it is considered to have caused BSE in the 2006 US atypical BSE animal. In order to determine if this amino acid change is a heritable trait in cattle, we sequenced the prion alleles of the only known offspring of this animal, a 2-year-old heifer.

Principal Findings

Sequence analysis revealed that both the 2006 US atypical BSE animal and its 2-year-old heifer were heterozygous at bovine prion gene nucleotides 631 through 633 for GAA (glutamic acid) and AAA (lysine). Both animals carry the E211K polymorphism, indicating that the allele is heritable and may persist within the cattle population.

Conclusions

This is the first evidence that the E211K polymorphism is a germline polymorphism, not a somatic mutation, suggesting BSE may be transmitted genetically in cattle. In the event that E211K proves to result in a genetic form of BSE, this would be the first indication that all 3 etiologic forms of TSEs (spontaneous, hereditary, and infectious) are present in a non-human species. Atypical BSE arising as both genetic and spontaneous disease, in the context of reports that at least some forms of atypical BSE can convert to classical BSE in mice, suggests a cattle origin for classical BSE.     

Frequency-dependent incidence in models of sexually transmitted diseases: portrayal of pair-based transmission and effects of illness on contact behaviour

We explore the transmission process for sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). We derive the classical frequency-dependent incidence mechanistically from a pair-formation model, using an approximation that applies to populations with rapid pairing dynamics (such as core groups or non-pair-bonding animals). This mechanistic derivation provides a framework to assess how accurately frequency-dependent incidence portrays the pair-based transmission known to underlie STD dynamics. This accuracy depends strongly on the disease being studied: frequency-dependent formulations are more suitable for chronic less-transmissible infections than for transient highly transmissible infections. Our results thus support earlier proposals to divide STDs into these two functional classes, and we suggest guidelines to help assess under what conditions each class can be appropriately modelled using frequency-dependent incidence. We then extend the derivation to include situations where infected individuals exhibit altered pairing behaviour. For four cases of increasing behavioural complexity, analytic expressions are presented for the generalized frequency-dependent incidence rate, basic reproductive number (R0) and steady-state prevalence (i infinity) of an epidemic. The expression for R0 is identical for all cases, giving refined insights into determinants of invasibility of STDs. Potentially significant effects of infection-induced changes in contact behaviour are illustrated by simulating epidemics of bacterial and viral STDs. We discuss the application of our results to STDs (in humans and animals) and other infectious diseases.     

Effects of public health educational campaigns and the role of sex workers on the spread of HIV/AIDS among heterosexuals

This paper presents a sex-structured model for heterosexual transmission of HIV/AIDS in which the population is divided into three subgroups: susceptibles, infectives and AIDS cases. The subgroups are further divided into two classes, consisting of individuals involved in high-risk sexual activities and individuals involved in low-risk sexual activities. The model considers the movement of individuals from high to low sexual activity groups as a result of public health educational campaigns. Thus, in this case public health educational campaigns are resulting in the split of the population into risk groups. The equilibrium and epidemic threshold, which is known as the basic reproductive number (R0), are obtained, and stability (local and global) of the disease-free equilibrium is investigated. The model is extended to incorporate sex workers, and their role in the spread of HIV/AIDS in settings with heterosexual transmission is explored. Comprehensive analytic and numerical techniques are employed in assessing the possible community benefits of public health educational campaigns in controlling HIV/AIDS. From the study, we conclude that the presence of sex workers enlarges the epidemic threshold R0, thus fuels the epidemic among the heterosexuals, and that public health educational campaigns among the high-risk heterosexual population reduces R0, thus can help slow or eradicate the epidemic.     

Estimation and inference of R0 of an infectious pathogen by a removal method

The basic reproductive ratio, R0, is a central quantity in the investigation and management of infectious pathogens. The standard model for describing stochastic epidemics is the continuous time epidemic birth-and-death process. The incidence data used to fit this model tend to be collected in discrete units (days, weeks, etc.), which makes model fitting, and estimation of R0 difficult. Discrete time epidemic models better match the time scale of data collection but make simplistic assumptions about the stochastic epidemic process. By investigating the nature of the assumptions of a discrete time epidemic model, we derive a bias corrected maximum likelihood estimate of R0 based on the chain binomial model. The resulting 'removal' estimators provide estimates of R0 and the initial susceptible population size from time series of infectious case counts. We illustrate the performance of the estimators on both simulated data and real epidemics. Lastly, we discuss methods to address data collected with observation error.     

The effect of contact heterogeneity and multiple routes of transmission on final epidemic size

Heterogeneity in the number of potentially infectious contacts amongst members of a population increases the basic reproduction ratio (R(0)) and markedly alters disease dynamics compared to traditional mean-field models. Most models describing transmission on contact networks only account for one specific route of transmission. However, for many infectious diseases multiple routes of transmission exist. The model presented here captures transmission through a well defined network of contacts, complemented by mean-field type transmission amongst the nodes of the network that accounts for alternative routes of transmission. The impact of these combined transmission mechanisms on the final epidemic size is investigated analytically. The analytic predictions for the purely mean-field case and the transmission through the network-only case are confirmed by individual-based network simulations. There is a critical transmission potential above which an increased contribution of the mean-field type transmission increases the final epidemic size while an increased contribution of the transmission through the network decreases it. Below the critical transmission potential the opposite effect is observed.