Highly (H5N1) and low (H7N2) pathogenic avian influenza virus infection in falcons via nasochoanal route and ingestion of experimentally infected prey

An experimental infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses was carried out on falcons in order to examine the effects of these viruses in terms of pathogenesis, viral distribution in tissues and viral shedding. The distribution pattern of influenza virus receptors was also assessed. Captive-reared gyr-saker (Falco rusticolus x Falco cherrug) hybrid falcons were challenged with a HPAI H5N1 virus (A/Great crested grebe/Basque Country/06.03249/2006) or a LPAI H7N2 virus (A/Anas plathyrhynchos/Spain/1877/2009), both via the nasochoanal route and by ingestion of previously infected specific pathogen free chicks. Infected falcons exhibited similar infection dynamics despite the different routes of exposure, demonstrating the effectiveness of in vivo feeding route. H5N1 infected falcons died, or were euthanized, between 5-7 days post-infection (dpi) after showing acute severe neurological signs. Presence of viral antigen in several tissues was confirmed by immunohistochemistry and real time RT-PCR (RRT-PCR), which were generally associated with significant microscopical lesions, mostly in the brain. Neither clinical signs, nor histopathological findings were observed in any of the H7N2 LPAI infected falcons, although all of them had seroconverted by 11 dpi. Avian receptors were strongly present in the upper respiratory tract of the falcons, in accordance with the consistent oral viral shedding detected by RRT-PCR in both H5N1 HPAI and H7N2 LPAI infected falcons. The present study demonstrates that gyr-saker hybrid falcons are highly susceptible to H5N1 HPAI virus infection, as previously observed, and that they may play a major role in the spreading of both HPAI and LPAI viruses. For the first time in raptors, natural infection by feeding on infected prey was successfully reproduced. The use of avian prey species in falconry husbandry and wildlife rehabilitation facilities could put valuable birds of prey and humans at risk and, therefore, this practice should be closely monitored.     

Homo- and heterosubtypic low pathogenic avian influenza exposure on H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus infection in wood ducks (Aix sponsa)

Wild birds in the Orders Anseriformes and Charadriiformes are the natural reservoirs for avian influenza (AI) viruses. Although they are often infected with multiple AI viruses, the significance and extent of acquired immunity in these populations is not understood. Pre-existing immunity to AI virus has been shown to modulate the outcome of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus infection in multiple domestic avian species, but few studies have addressed this effect in wild birds. In this study, the effect of pre-exposure to homosubtypic (homologous hemagglutinin) and heterosubtypic (heterologous hemagglutinin) low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses on the outcome of a H5N1 HPAI virus infection in wood ducks (Aix sponsa) was evaluated. Pre-exposure of wood ducks to different LPAI viruses did not prevent infection with H5N1 HPAI virus, but did increase survival associated with H5N1 HPAI virus infection. The magnitude of this effect on the outcome of the H5N1 HPAI virus infection varied between different LPAI viruses, and was associated both with efficiency of LPAI viral replication in wood ducks and the development of a detectable humoral immune response. These observations suggest that in naturally occurring outbreaks of H5N1 HPAI, birds with pre-existing immunity to homologous hemagglutinin or neuraminidase subtypes of AI virus may either survive H5N1 HPAI virus infection or live longer than naïve birds and, consequently, could pose a greater risk for contributing to viral transmission and dissemination. The mechanisms responsible for this protection and/or the duration of this immunity remain unknown. The results of this study are important for surveillance efforts and help clarify epidemiological data from outbreaks of H5N1 HPAI virus in wild bird populations.     

Avian influenza shedding patterns in waterfowl: implications for surveillance, environmental transmission, and disease spread

Despite the recognized importance of fecal/oral transmission of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) via contaminated wetlands, little is known about the length, quantity, or route of AI virus shed by wild waterfowl. We used published laboratory challenge studies to evaluate the length and quantity of low pathogenic (LP) and highly pathogenic (HP) virus shed via oral and cloacal routes by AI-infected ducks and geese, and how these factors might influence AI epidemiology and virus detection. We used survival analysis to estimate the duration of infection (from virus inoculation to the last day virus was shed) and nonlinear models to evaluate temporal patterns in virus shedding. We found higher mean virus titer and longer median infectious period for LPAI-infected ducks (10-11.5 days in oral and cloacal swabs) than HPAI-infected ducks (5 days) and geese (7.5 days). Based on the median bird infectious dose, we found that environmental contamination is two times higher for LPAI- than HPAI-infectious ducks, which implies that susceptible birds may have a higher probability of infection during LPAI than HPAI outbreaks. Less environmental contamination during the course of infection and previously documented shorter environmental persistence for HPAI than LPAI suggest that the environment is a less favorable reservoir for HPAI. The longer infectious period, higher virus titers, and subclinical infections with LPAI viruses favor the spread of these viruses by migratory birds in comparison to HPAI. Given the lack of detection of HPAI viruses through worldwide surveillance, we suggest monitoring for AI should aim at improving our understanding of AI dynamics (in particular, the role of the environment and immunity) using long-term comprehensive live bird, serologic, and environmental sampling at targeted areas. Our findings on LPAI and HPAI shedding patterns over time provide essential information to parameterize environmental transmission and virus spread in predictive epizootiologic models of disease risks.     

Genetically Diverse Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza A Virus Subtypes Co-Circulate among Poultry in Bangladesh

Influenza virus surveillance, poultry outbreak investigations and genomic sequencing were assessed to understand the ecology and evolution of low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) A viruses in Bangladesh from 2007 to 2013. We analyzed 506 avian specimens collected from poultry in live bird markets and backyard flocks to identify influenza A viruses. Virus isolation-positive specimens (n = 50) were subtyped and their coding-complete genomes were sequenced. The most frequently identified subtypes among LPAI isolates were H9N2, H11N3, H4N6, and H1N1. Less frequently detected subtypes included H1N3, H2N4, H3N2, H3N6, H3N8, H4N2, H5N2, H6N1, H6N7, and H7N9. Gene sequences were compared to publicly available sequences using phylogenetic inference approaches. Among the 14 subtypes identified, the majority of viral gene segments were most closely related to poultry or wild bird viruses commonly found in Southeast Asia, Europe, and/or northern Africa. LPAI subtypes were distributed over several geographic locations in Bangladesh, and surface and internal protein gene segments clustered phylogenetically with a diverse number of viral subtypes suggesting extensive reassortment among these LPAI viruses. H9N2 subtype viruses differed from other LPAI subtypes because genes from these viruses consistently clustered together, indicating this subtype is enzootic in Bangladesh. The H9N2 strains identified in Bangladesh were phylogenetically and antigenically related to previous human-derived H9N2 viruses detected in Bangladesh representing a potential source for human infection. In contrast, the circulating LPAI H5N2 and H7N9 viruses were both phylogenetically and antigenically unrelated to H5 viruses identified previously in humans in Bangladesh and H7N9 strains isolated from humans in China. In Bangladesh, domestic poultry sold in live bird markets carried a wide range of LPAI virus subtypes and a high diversity of genotypes. These findings, combined with the seven year timeframe of sampling, indicate a continuous circulation of these viruses in the country.     

Characterization of the 2012 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H7N3 Virus Isolated from Poultry in an Outbreak in Mexico: Pathobiology and Vaccine Protection

In June of 2012, an H7N3 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus was identified as the cause of a severe disease outbreak in commercial laying chicken farms in Mexico. The purpose of this study was to characterize the Mexican 2012 H7N3 HPAI virus (A/chicken/Jalisco/CPA1/2012) and determine the protection against the virus conferred by different H7 inactivated vaccines in chickens. Both adult and young chickens intranasally inoculated with the virus became infected and died at between 2 and 4 days postinoculation (p.i.). High virus titers and viral replication in many tissues were demonstrated at 2 days p.i. in infected birds. The virus from Jalisco, Mexico, had high sequence similarity of greater than 97% to the sequences of wild bird viruses from North America in all eight gene segments. The hemagglutinin gene of the virus contained a 24-nucleotide insert at the hemagglutinin cleavage site which had 100% sequence identity to chicken 28S rRNA, suggesting that the insert was the result of nonhomologous recombination with the host genome. For vaccine protection studies, both U.S. H7 low-pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses and a 2006 Mexican H7 LPAI virus were tested as antigens in experimental oil emulsion vaccines and injected into chickens 3 weeks prior to challenge. All H7 vaccines tested provided ≥90% protection against clinical disease after challenge and decreased the number of birds shedding virus and the titers of virus shed. This study demonstrates the pathological consequences of the infection of chickens with the 2012 Mexican lineage H7N3 HPAI virus and provides support for effective programs of vaccination against this virus in poultry.     

High influenza a virus infection rates in mallards bred for hunting in the camargue, South of france

During the last decade, the role of wildlife in emerging pathogen transmission to domestic animals has often been pointed out. Conversely, far less attention has been paid to pathogen transmission from domestic animals to wildlife. Here, we focus on the case of game restocking, which implies the release of millions of animals worldwide each year. We conducted a 2-year study in the Camargue (Southern France) to investigate the influence of hand-reared Mallard releases on avian influenza virus dynamics in surrounding wildlife. We sampled Mallards (cloacal swabs) from several game duck facilities in 2009 and 2010 before their release. A very high (99%) infection rate caused by an H10N7 strain was detected in the game bird facility we sampled in 2009. We did not detect this strain in shot ducks we sampled, neither during the 2008/2009 nor the 2009/2010 hunting seasons. In 2010 infection rates ranged from 0 to 24% in hand-reared ducks. The 2009 H10N7 strain was fully sequenced. It results from multiple reassortment events between Eurasian low pathogenic strains. Interestingly, H10N7 strains had previously caused human infections in Egypt and Australia. The H10 and N7 segments we sequenced were clearly distinct from the Australian ones but they belonged to the same large cluster as the Egyptian ones. We did not observe any mutation linked to increased virulence, transmission to mammals, or antiviral resistance in the H10N7 strain we identified. Our results indicate that the potential role of hand-reared Mallards in influenza virus epizootics must be taken into account given the likely risk of viral exchange between game bird facilities and wild habitats, owing to duck rearing conditions. Measures implemented to limit transmission from wildlife to domestic animals as well as measures to control transmission from domestic animals to wild ones need to be equally reinforced.     

Genome Wide Host Gene Expression Analysis in Chicken Lungs Infected with Avian Influenza Viruses

The molecular pathogenesis of avian influenza infection varies greatly with individual bird species and virus strain. The molecular pathogenesis of the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) or the low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) infection in avian species remains poorly understood. Thus, global immune response of chickens infected with HPAI H5N1 (A/duck/India/02CA10/2011) and LPAI H9N2 (A/duck/India/249800/2010) viruses was studied using microarray to identify crucial host genetic components responsive to these infection. HPAI H5N1 virus induced excessive expression of type I IFNs (IFNA and IFNG), cytokines (IL1B, IL18, IL22, IL13, and IL12B), chemokines (CCL4, CCL19, CCL10, and CX3CL1) and IFN stimulated genes (OASL, MX1, RSAD2, IFITM5, IFIT5, GBP 1, and EIF2AK) in lung tissues. This dysregulation of host innate immune genes may be the critical determinant of the severity and the outcome of the influenza infection in chickens. In contrast, the expression levels of most of these genes was not induced in the lungs of LPAI H9N2 virus infected chickens. This study indicated the relationship between host immune genes and their roles in pathogenesis of HPAIV infection in chickens.     

禽流感H5、H7、H9亚型多重实时荧光RT-PCR检测方法的建立

为了对致病性强、危害性大的H5、H7、H9亚型禽流感病毒进行同时集成化快速检测,通过对GenBank已报道的禽流感病毒的HA基因进行序列分析比较,设计了H5、H7、H9 3个亚型的特异性引物和分别用3个荧光基团标记的Taqman MGB核酸探针。将各个亚型引物与探针优化组合,筛选出能够同时检测禽流感病毒H5、H7、H9 3个亚型、且对Ct值和扩增效率影响不大的3组引物和探针,建立了三重实时荧光RT-PCR方法。该方法特异性好,在我们检测的样品中,没有发现假阳性和假阴性现象。同时敏感性高,检测禽流感病毒H5、H7、H9亚型的敏感性分别达到1 0001、000、500个模板拷贝数;此外抗干扰能力强,对禽流感H5、H7、H9 3个亚型的不同模板浓度进行组合,仍可有效地同时检测3个病毒亚型。所建立的方法对保存的89个禽流感病毒样品进行检测,结果与经典检测方法(病毒分离鉴定、HA、HI)的符合率达100%。用上述建立的方法与鸡胚分离法同时对新鲜采集的4 000多份临床样品进行检测,两种方法的检测结果符合率为100%。     

Characterization of low-pathogenic H5 subtype influenza viruses from Eurasia: implications for the origin of highly pathogenic H5N1 viruses

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses are now endemic in many Asian countries, resulting in repeated outbreaks in poultry and increased cases of human infection. The immediate precursor of these HPAI viruses is believed to be A/goose/Guangdong/1/96 (Gs/GD)-like H5N1 HPAI viruses first detected in Guangdong, China, in 1996. From 2000 onwards, many novel reassortant H5N1 influenza viruses or genotypes have emerged in southern China. However, precursors of the Gs/GD-like viruses and their subsequent reassortants have not been fully determined. Here we characterize low-pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H5 subtype viruses isolated from poultry and migratory birds in southern China and Europe from the 1970s to the 2000s. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that Gs/GD-like virus was likely derived from an LPAI H5 virus in migratory birds. However, its variants arose from multiple reassortments between Gs/GD-like virus and viruses from migratory birds or with those Eurasian viruses isolated in the 1970s. It is of note that unlike HPAI H5N1 viruses, those recent LPAI H5 viruses have not become established in aquatic or terrestrial poultry. Phylogenetic analyses revealed the dynamic nature of the influenza virus gene pool in Eurasia with repeated transmissions between the eastern and western extremities of the continent. The data also show reassortment between influenza viruses from domestic and migratory birds in this region that has contributed to the expanded diversity of the influenza virus gene pool among poultry in Eurasia.     

Transmission dynamics of low pathogenicity avian influenza infections in Turkey flocks

Low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses of H5 and H7 subtypes have the potential to mutate into highly pathogenic strains (HPAI), which can threaten human health and cause huge economic losses. The current knowledge on the mechanisms of mutation from LPAI to HPAI is insufficient for predicting which H5 or H7 strains will mutate into an HPAI strain, and since the molecular changes necessary for the change in virulence seemingly occur at random, the probability of mutation depends on the number of virus replicates, which is associated with the number of birds that acquire infection. We estimated the transmission dynamics of LPAI viruses in turkeys using serosurveillance data from past epidemics in Italy. We fitted the proportions of birds infected in 36 flocks into a hierarchical model to estimate the basic reproduction number (R(0)) and possible variations in R(0) among flocks caused by differences among farms. We also estimated the distributions of the latent and infectious periods, using experimental infection data with outbreak strains. These were then combined with the R(0) to simulate LPAI outbreaks and characterise the resulting dynamics. The estimated mean within-flock R(0) in the population of infected flocks was 5.5, indicating that an infectious bird would infect an average of more than five susceptible birds. The results also indicate that the presence of seropositive birds does not necessarily mean that the virus has already been cleared and the flock is no longer infective, so that seropositive flocks may still constitute a risk of infection for other flocks. In light of these results, the enforcement of appropriate restrictions, the culling of seropositive flocks, or pre-emptive slaughtering may be useful. The model and parameter estimates presented in this paper provide the first complete picture of LPAI dynamics in turkey flocks and could be used for designing a suitable surveillance program.     

Birds and Viruses at a Crossroad - Surveillance of Influenza A Virus in Portuguese Waterfowl

During recent years, extensive amounts of data have become available regarding influenza A virus (IAV) in wild birds in northern Europe, while information from southern Europe is more limited. Here, we present an IAV surveillance study conducted in western Portugal 2008–2009, analyzing 1653 samples from six different species of waterfowl, with the majority of samples taken from Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). Overall 4.4% of sampled birds were infected. The sampling results revealed a significant temporal variation in the IAV prevalence, including a pronounced peak among predominantly young birds in June, indicating that IAV circulate within breeding populations in the wetlands of western Portugal. The H10N7 and H9N2 subtypes were predominant among isolated viruses. Phylogenetic analyses of the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase sequences of H10N7, H9N2 and H11N3 virus showed that sequences from Portugal were closely related to viral sequences from Central Europe as well as to IAVs isolated in the southern parts of Africa, reflecting Portugal’s position on the European-African bird migratory flyway. This study highlights the importance of Portugal as a migratory crossroad for IAV, connecting breeding stationary waterfowl with birds migrating between continents which enable transmission and spread of IAV.     

Susceptibility of wood ducks to H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus

Since 2002, H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses have caused mortality in numerous species of wild birds; this is atypical for avian influenza virus (AIV) infections in these avian species, especially for species within the order Anseriformes. Although these infections document the susceptibility of wild birds to H5N1 HPAI viruses and the spillover of these viruses from infected domestic birds to wild birds, it is unknown whether H5N1 HPAI viruses can persist in free-living avian populations. In a previous study, we established that wood ducks (Aix sponsa) are highly susceptible to infection with H5N1 HPAI viruses. To quantify this susceptibility and further evaluate the likelihood of H5N1 HPAI viral maintenance in a wild bird population, we determined the concentration of virus required to produce infection in wood ducks. To accomplish this, 25 wood ducks were inoculated intranasally at 12-16 wk of age with decreasing concentrations of a H5N1 HPAI virus (A/Whooper Swan/Mongolia/244/05 [H5N1]). The median infectious dose and the lethal dose of H5N1 HPAI virus in wood ducks were very low (10(0.95) and 10(1.71) median embryo infectious dose [EID(50)]/ml, respectively) and less than that of chickens (10(2.80) and 10(2.80) EID(50)/ml). These results confirm that wood ducks are highly susceptible to infection with H5N1 HPAI virus. The data from this study, combined with what is known experimentally about H5N1 HPAI virus infection in wood ducks and viral persistence in aquatic environments, suggest that the wood duck would represent a sensitive indicator species for H5N1 HPAI. Results also suggest that the potential for decreased transmission efficiency associated with reduced viral shedding (especially from the cloaca) and a loss of environmental fitness (in water), may be offset by the ability of this virus to be transmitted through a very low infectious dose.     

Highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak mitigated by seasonal low pathogenic strains: Insights from dynamic modeling

The spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 remains a threat for both wild and domestic bird populations, while low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) strains have been reported to induce partial immunity to HPAI in poultry and some wild birds inoculated with both HPAI and LPAI strains. Here, based on the reported data and experiments, we develop a two-strain avian influenza model to examine the extent to which this partial immunity observed at the individual level can affect the outcome of the outbreaks among migratory birds in the wild at the population level during different seasons. We find a distinct mitigating effect of LPAI on the death toll induced by HPAI strain, and this effect is particularly important for populations previously exposed to and recovered from LPAI. We further investigate the effect of the dominant mode of transmission of an HPAI strain on the outcome of the epidemic. Four combinations of contact based direct transmission and indirect fecal-to-oral (or environmental) routes are examined. For a given infection peak of HPAI, indirect fecal-to-oral transmission of HPAI can lead to a higher death toll than that associated with direct transmission. The mitigating effect of LPAI can, in turn, be dependent on the route of infection of HPAI.     

Virus Pathotype and Deep Sequencing of the HA Gene of a Low Pathogenicity H7N1 Avian Influenza Virus Causing Mortality in Turkeys

Low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses of the H7 subtype generally cause mild disease in poultry. However the evolution of a LPAI virus into highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus results in the generation of a virus that can cause severe disease and death. The classification of these two pathotypes is based, in part, on disease signs and death in chickens, as assessed in an intravenous pathogenicity test, but the effect of LPAI viruses in turkeys is less well understood. During an investigation of LPAI virus infection of turkeys, groups of three-week-old birds inoculated with A/chicken/Italy/1279/99 (H7N1) showed severe disease signs and died or were euthanised within seven days of infection. Virus was detected in many internal tissues and organs from culled birds. To examine the possible evolution of the infecting virus to a highly pathogenic form in these turkeys, sequence analysis of the haemagglutinin (HA) gene cleavage site was carried out by analysing multiple cDNA amplicons made from swabs and tissue sample extracts employing Sanger and Next Generation Sequencing. In addition, a RT-PCR assay to detect HPAI virus was developed. There was no evidence of the presence of HPAI virus in either the virus used as inoculum or from swabs taken from infected birds. However, a small proportion (<0.5%) of virus carried in individual tracheal or liver samples did contain a molecular signature typical of a HPAI virus at the HA cleavage site. All the signature sequences were identical and were similar to HPAI viruses collected during the Italian epizootic in 1999/2000. We assume that the detection of HPAI virus in tissue samples following infection with A/chicken/Italy/1279/99 reflected amplification of a virus present at very low levels within the mixed inoculum but, strikingly, we observed no new HPAI virus signatures in the amplified DNA analysed by deep-sequencing.     

Prevalence of avian influenza viruses, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mycobacterium avium</Emphasis>, and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mycobacterium avium</Emphasis>, subsp. <Emphasis Type="Italic">paratuberculosis</Emphasis> in marsh-dwelling passerines in Slovakia, 2008

Prevalence of the infectious respiratory agens, avian influenza virus (AIV), Mycobacterium avium (M. avium), and Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP), was studied in migratory marsh-dwelling passerines captured in the Parížske močiare wetlands in Western Slovakia during 2008. Surveillance of 650 birds revealed a lower prevalence of AIV in spring (13.6%) than in summer (17.5%). A total of 14 different subtypes were detected in samples obtained from birds captured during the spring, with the most prevalent subtypes being H8N3, H6N4, H11N6 and H12N6. Subtypes H12N6, H6N6 and H2N5 were predominant in passerines captured during summer months. In eight cases, different AIV infections were detected in the oropharyngeal and cloacal samples originating from a single bird (H1N1 and H8N3; H1N3 and H9N3; H2N3 and H12N6; H2N1 and H8N1; H4N2 and H9N6; H5N5 and H11N6; H6N4 and H11N6; H7N1 and H10N3 in the oropharynx and cloaca, respectively). M. avium was detected in 9.2% and 0.8% of marsh-dwelling passerines captured during spring and summer, respectively. Only two birds were co-infected with AIV and M. avium. All birds were negative for MAP.     

Prior Infection of Chickens with H1N1 or H1N2 Avian Influenza Elicits Partial Heterologous Protection against Highly Pathogenic H5N1

There is a critical need to have vaccines that can protect against emerging pandemic influenza viruses. Commonly used influenza vaccines are killed whole virus that protect against homologous and not heterologous virus. Using chickens we have explored the possibility of using live low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) A/goose/AB/223/2005 H1N1 or A/WBS/MB/325/2006 H1N2 to induce immunity against heterologous highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A/chicken/Vietnam/14/2005 H5N1. H1N1 and H1N2 replicated in chickens but did not cause clinical disease. Following infection, chickens developed nucleoprotein and H1 specific antibodies, and reduced H5N1 plaque size in vitro in the absence of H5 neutralizing antibodies at 21 days post infection (DPI). In addition, heterologous cell mediated immunity (CMI) was demonstrated by antigen-specific proliferation and IFN-γ secretion in PBMCs re-stimulated with H5N1 antigen. Following H5N1 challenge of both pre-infected and naïve controls chickens housed together, all naïve chickens developed acute disease and died while H1N1 or H1N2 pre-infected chickens had reduced clinical disease and 70–80% survived. H1N1 or H1N2 pre-infected chickens were also challenged with H5N1 and naïve chickens placed in the same room one day later. All pre-infected birds were protected from H5N1 challenge but shed infectious virus to naïve contact chickens. However, disease onset, severity and mortality was reduced and delayed in the naïve contacts compared to directly inoculated naïve controls. These results indicate that prior infection with LPAI virus can generate heterologous protection against HPAI H5N1 in the absence of specific H5 antibody.     

Model-Based Evaluation of Highly and Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Dynamics in Wild Birds

There is growing interest in avian influenza (AI) epidemiology to predict disease risk in wild and domestic birds, and prevent transmission to humans. However, understanding the epidemic dynamics of highly pathogenic (HPAI) viruses remains challenging because they have rarely been detected in wild birds. We used modeling to integrate available scientific information from laboratory and field studies, evaluate AI dynamics in individual hosts and waterfowl populations, and identify key areas for future research. We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model and used published laboratory challenge studies to estimate epidemiological parameters (rate of infection, latency period, recovery and mortality rates), considering the importance of age classes, and virus pathogenicity. Infectious contact leads to infection and virus shedding within 1–2 days, followed by relatively slower period for recovery or mortality. We found a shorter infectious period for HPAI than low pathogenic (LP) AI, which may explain that HPAI has been much harder to detect than LPAI during surveillance programs. Our model predicted a rapid LPAI epidemic curve, with a median duration of infection of 50–60 days and no fatalities. In contrast, HPAI dynamics had lower prevalence and higher mortality, especially in young birds. Based on field data from LPAI studies, our model suggests to increase surveillance for HPAI in post-breeding areas, because the presence of immunologically naïve young birds is predicted to cause higher HPAI prevalence and bird losses during this season. Our results indicate a better understanding of the transmission, infection, and immunity-related processes is required to refine predictions of AI risk and spread, improve surveillance for HPAI in wild birds, and develop disease control strategies to reduce potential transmission to domestic birds and/or humans.