A UNIFIED MODEL FOR THE COEVOLUTION OF RESISTANCE,TOLERANCE, AND VIRULENCE

We present a general host–parasite model that unifies previous theory by investigating the coevolution of virulence, resistance, and tolerance, with respect to multiple physiological, epidemiological, and environmental parameters. Four sets of new predictions emerge. First, compared to virulence coevolving with resistance or tolerance, three‐trait coevolution promotes more virulence and less tolerance, and broadens conditions under which pure defenses evolve. Second, the cost and efficiency of virulence and the epidemiological rates are the key factors of virulence coevolving with resistance and tolerance. Maximum virulence evolves for intermediate infection rate, at which coevolved levels of resistance and tolerance are both high. The influence of host and parasite background mortalities is strong on the evolution of defenses and weak on the coevolution of virulence. Third, evolutionary correlations between defenses can switch sign along single‐parameter gradients. The evolutionary trade‐off between resistance and tolerance may coevolve with virulence that either increases or decreases monotonically, depending on the underlying parameter gradient. Fourth, despite global attractiveness and stability of coevolutionary equilibria, not‐so‐rare and not‐so‐small mutations can beget large variation in virulence and defenses around equilibrium, in the form of transient “evolutionary spikes.” Implications for evolutionary management of infections are discussed and directions for future research are outlined.     

Coevolution between parasite virulence and host life-history traits

Epidemiological models generally explore the evolution of parasite life-history traits, namely, virulence and transmission, against a background of constant host life-history traits. However, life-history models have predicted the evolution of host traits in response to parasitism. The coevolution of host and parasite life-history traits remains largely unexplored. We present an epidemiological model, based on resource allocation theory, that provides an analysis of the coevolution between host reproductive effort and parasite virulence. This model allows for hosts with either a fixed (i.e., genetic) or conditional (i.e., a phenotypically plastic) response to parasitism. It also considers superinfections. We show that parasitism always favors increased allocation to host reproduction, but because of epidemiological feedbacks, the evolutionarily stable host reproductive effort does not always increase with parasite virulence. Superinfection drives the evolution of parasite virulence and acts on the evolution of the host through parasite evolution, generally leading to higher host reproductive effort. Coevolution, as opposed to cases where only one of the antagonists evolves, may generate correlations between host and parasite life-history traits across environmental gradients affecting the fecundity or the survival of the host. Our results provide a theoretical framework against which experimental coevolution outcomes or field observations can be contrasted.     

Relationship between genetic, chemical, and bacterial diversity in the Atlanto-Mediterranean bath sponge Spongia lamella

Does diversity beget diversity? Diversity includes a diversity of concepts because it is linked to variability in and of life and can be applied to multiple levels. The connections between multiple levels of diversity are poorly understood. Here, we investigated the relationships between genetic, bacterial, and chemical diversity of the endangered Atlanto-Mediterranean sponge Spongia lamella. These levels of diversity are intrinsically related to sponge evolution and could have strong conservation implications. We used microsatellite markers, denaturing gel gradient electrophoresis and quantitative polymerase chain reaction, and high performance liquid chromatography to quantify genetic, bacterial, and chemical diversity of nine sponge populations. We then used correlations to test whether these diversity levels covaried. We found that sponge populations differed significantly in genetic, bacterial, and chemical diversity. We also found a strong geographic pattern of increasing genetic, bacterial, and chemical dissimilarity with increasing geographic distance between populations. However, we failed to detect significant correlations between the three levels of diversity investigated in our study. Our results suggest that diversity fails to beget diversity within a single species and indicates that a diversity of factors regulates a diversity of diversities, which highlights the complex nature of the mechanisms behind diversity.     

Virulence‐driven trade‐offs in disease transmission: A meta‐analysis*

The virulence–transmission trade‐off hypothesis proposed more than 30 years ago is the cornerstone in the study of host–parasite co‐evolution. This hypothesis rests on the premise that virulence is an unavoidable and increasing cost because the parasite uses host resources to replicate. This cost associated with replication ultimately results in a deceleration in transmission rate because increasing within‐host replication increases host mortality. Empirical tests of predictions of the hypothesis have found mixed support, which cast doubt about its overall generalizability. To quantitatively address this issue, we conducted a meta‐analysis of 29 empirical studies, after reviewing over 6000 published papers, addressing the four core relationships between (1) virulence and recovery rate, (2) within‐host replication rate and virulence, (3) within‐host replication and transmission rate, and (4) virulence and transmission rate. We found strong support for an increasing relationship between replication and virulence, and replication and transmission. Yet, it is still uncertain if these relationships generally decelerate due to high within‐study variability. There was insufficient data to quantitatively test the other two core relationships predicted by the theory. Overall, the results suggest that the current empirical evidence provides partial support for the trade‐off hypothesis, but more work remains to be done.     

The evolution of parasite host range in heterogeneous host populations

Theory on the evolution of niche width argues that resource heterogeneity selects for niche breadth. For parasites, this theory predicts that parasite populations will evolve, or maintain, broader host ranges when selected in genetically diverse host populations relative to homogeneous host populations. To test this prediction, we selected the bacterial parasite Serratia marcescens to kill Caenorhabditis elegans in populations that were genetically heterogeneous (50% mix of two experimental genotypes) or homogeneous (100% of either genotype). After 20 rounds of selection, we compared the host range of selected parasites by measuring parasite fitness (i.e. virulence, the selected fitness trait) on the two focal host genotypes and on a novel host genotype. As predicted, heterogeneous host populations selected for parasites with a broader host range: these parasite populations gained or maintained virulence on all host genotypes. This result contrasted with selection in homogeneous populations of one host genotype. Here, host range contracted, with parasite populations gaining virulence on the focal host genotype and losing virulence on the novel host genotype. This pattern was not, however, repeated with selection in homogeneous populations of the second host genotype: these parasite populations did not gain virulence on the focal host genotype, nor did they lose virulence on the novel host genotype. Our results indicate that host heterogeneity can maintain broader host ranges in parasite populations. Individual host genotypes, however, vary in the degree to which they select for specialization in parasite populations.     

Parasite and host assemblages: embracing the reality will improve our knowledge of parasite transmission and virulence

Interactions involving several parasite species (multi-parasitized hosts) or several host species (multi-host parasites) are the rule in nature. Only a few studies have investigated these realistic, but complex, situations from an evolutionary perspective. Consequently, their impact on the evolution of parasite virulence and transmission remains poorly understood. The mechanisms by which multiple infections may influence virulence and transmission include the dynamics of intrahost competition, mediation by the host immune system and an increase in parasite genetic recombination. Theoretical investigations have yet to be conducted to determine which of these mechanisms are likely to be key factors in the evolution of virulence and transmission. In contrast, the relationship between multi-host parasites and parasite virulence and transmission has seen some theoretical investigation. The key factors in these models are the trade-off between virulence across different host species, variation in host species quality and patterns of transmission. The empirical studies on multi-host parasites suggest that interspecies transmission plays a central role in the evolution of virulence, but as yet no complete picture of the phenomena involved is available. Ultimately, determining how complex host–parasite interactions impact the evolution of host–parasite relationships will require the development of cross-disciplinary studies linking the ecology of quantitative networks with the evolution of virulence.     

THE EVOLUTION OF VIRULENCE IN PATHOGENS WITH VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL TRANSMISSION

The idea that vertical transmission of parasites selects for lower virulence is widely accepted. However, little theoretical work has considered the evolution of virulence for parasites with mixed horizontal plus vertical transmission. Many human, animal, and plant parasites are transmitted both vertically and horizontally, and some horizontal transmission is generally necessary to maintain parasites at all. We present a population-dynamical model for the evolution of virulence when both vertical and horizontal transmission are present. In the simplest such model, up to two infectious strains can coexist within one host population. Virulent, vertically transmitted pathogens can persist in a population when they provide protection against more virulent, horizontally transmitted strains. When virulence is maintained by a correlation with horizontal transmission rates, increased levels of vertical transmission always lower the evolutionarily stable (ESS) level of virulence. Contrary to existing theory, however, increases in opportunities for horizontal transmission also lower the ESS level of virulence. We explain these findings in light of earlier work and confirm them in simulations including imperfect vertical transmission. We describe further simulations, in which both vertical and horizontal transmission rates are allowed to evolve. The outcome of these simulations depends on whether high levels of vertical transmission are possible with low virulence. Finally, we argue against the notion of a virulence-avirulence continuum between horizontal and vertical transmission, and discuss our results in relation to empirical studies of transmission and virulence.     

Kin selection, quorum sensing and virulence in pathogenic bacteria

Bacterial growth and virulence often depends upon the cooperative release of extracellular factors excreted in response to quorum sensing (QS). We carried out an in vivo selection experiment in mice to examine how QS evolves in response to variation in relatedness (strain diversity), and the consequences for virulence. We started our experiment with two bacterial strains: a wild-type that both produces and responds to QS signal molecules, and a lasR (signal-blind) mutant that does not release extracellular factors in response to signal. We found that: (i) QS leads to greater growth within hosts; (ii) high relatedness favours the QS wild-type; and (iii) low relatedness favours the lasR mutant. Relatedness matters in our experiment because, at relatively low relatedness, the lasR mutant is able to exploit the extracellular factors produced by the cells that respond to QS, and hence increase in frequency. Furthermore, our results suggest that because a higher relatedness favours cooperative QS, and hence leads to higher growth, this will also lead to a higher virulence, giving a relationship between relatedness and virulence that is in the opposite direction to that usually predicted by virulence theory.     

Vertical Transmission Selects for Reduced Virulence in a Plant Virus and for Increased Resistance in the Host

For the last three decades, evolutionary biologists have sought to understand which factors modulate the evolution of parasite virulence. Although theory has identified several of these modulators, their effect has seldom been analysed experimentally. We investigated the role of two such major factors—the mode of transmission, and host adaptation in response to parasite evolution—in the evolution of virulence of the plant virus Cucumber mosaic virus (CMV) in its natural host Arabidopsis thaliana. To do so, we serially passaged three CMV strains under strict vertical and strict horizontal transmission, alternating both modes of transmission. We quantified seed (vertical) transmission rate, virus accumulation, effect on plant growth and virulence of evolved and non-evolved viruses in the original plants and in plants derived after five passages of vertical transmission. Our results indicated that vertical passaging led to adaptation of the virus to greater vertical transmission, which was associated with reductions of virus accumulation and virulence. On the other hand, horizontal serial passages did not significantly modify virus accumulation and virulence. The observed increases in CMV seed transmission, and reductions in virus accumulation and virulence in vertically passaged viruses were due also to reciprocal host adaptation during vertical passages, which additionally reduced virulence and multiplication of vertically passaged viruses. This result is consistent with plant-virus co-evolution. Host adaptation to vertically passaged viruses was traded-off against reduced resistance to the non-evolved viruses. Thus, we provide evidence of the key role that the interplay between mode of transmission and host-parasite co-evolution has in determining the evolution of virulence.     

Within-host parasite dynamics,emerging trade-off,and evolution of virulence with immune system

Abstract.— Virulence is an evolutionary paradox because parasites never benefit from their host's death. The adaptive explanation of virulence is classically based upon the existence of physiological constraints that create a trade-off between parasites' epidemiological traits (virulence, transmissibility, and clearance). Here we develop an epidemiological model where infections are dynamic processes and we demonstrate how these dynamics generate a trade-off between emerging epidemiological parameters. We then study how host's immune strength modifies this trade-off and hence influences virulence evolution. We found that in acute infections, where parasites are engaged in a race with immune cells, immunity restrains more the duration of the infection than its intensity. As a consequence parasites evolve to provoke more virulent but shorter infections in strongly immunized hosts.     

Kin selection and the evolution of virulence

Social interactions between conspecific parasites are partly dependent on the relatedness of interacting parasites (kin selection), which, in turn, is predicted to affect the extent of damage they cause their hosts (virulence). High relatedness is generally assumed to favour less competitive interactions, but the relationship between relatedness and virulence is crucially dependent on the social behaviour in question. Here, we discuss the rather limited body of experimental work that addresses how kin-selected social behaviours affect virulence. First, if prudent use of host resources (a form of cooperation) maximizes the transmission success of the parasite population, decreased relatedness is predicted to result in increased host exploitation and virulence. Experimental support for this well-established theoretical result is surprisingly limited. Second, if parasite within-host growth rate is a positive function of cooperation (that is, when individuals need to donate public goods, such as extracellular enzymes), virulence is predicted to increase with increasing relatedness. The limited studies testing this hypothesis are broadly consistent with this prediction. Finally, there is some empirical evidence supporting theory that suggests that spiteful behaviours are maximized at intermediate degrees of relatedness, which, in turn, leads to minimal virulence because of the reduced growth rate of the infecting population. We highlight the need for further thorough experimentation on the role of kin selection in the evolution of virulence and identify additional biological complexities to these simple frameworks.     

Life history trade-offs and relaxed selection can decrease bacterial virulence in environmental reservoirs

Pathogen virulence is usually thought to evolve in reciprocal selection with the host. While this might be true for obligate pathogens, the life histories of opportunistic pathogens typically alternate between within-host and outside-host environments during the infection-transmission cycle. As a result, opportunistic pathogens are likely to experience conflicting selection pressures across different environments, and this could affect their virulence through life-history trait correlations. We studied these correlations experimentally by exposing an opportunistic bacterial pathogen Serratia marcescens to its natural protist predator Tetrahymena thermophila for 13 weeks, after which we measured changes in bacterial traits related to both anti-predator defence and virulence. We found that anti-predator adaptation (producing predator-resistant biofilm) caused a correlative attenuation in virulence. Even though the direct mechanism was not found, reduction in virulence was most clearly connected to a predator-driven loss of a red bacterial pigment, prodigiosin. Moreover, life-history trait evolution was more divergent among replicate populations in the absence of predation, leading also to lowered virulence in some of the 'predator absent' selection lines. Together these findings suggest that the virulence of non-obligatory, opportunistic bacterial pathogens can decrease in environmental reservoirs through life history trade-offs, or random accumulation of mutations that impair virulence traits under relaxed selection.     

Bacteriocins, spite and virulence

There has been much interest in using social evolution theory to predict the damage to a host from parasite infection, termed parasite virulence. Most of this work has focused on how high kinship between the parasites infecting a host can select for more prudent exploitation of the host, leading to a negative relationship between virulence and parasite kinship. However, it has also been shown that if parasites can cooperate to overcome the host, then high parasite kinship within hosts can select for greater cooperation and higher growth rates, hence leading to a positive relationship between virulence and parasite kinship. We examine the impact of a spiteful behaviour, chemical (bacteriocin) warfare between microbes, on the evolution of virulence, and find a new relationship: virulence is maximized when the frequency of kin among parasites' social partners is low or high, and is minimized at intermediate values. This emphasizes how biological details can fundamentally alter the qualitative nature of theoretical predictions made by models of parasite virulence.     

Multiple infections and the evolution of virulence

Infections that consist of multiple parasite strains or species are common in the wild and are a major public health concern. Theory suggests that these infections have a key influence on the evolution of infectious diseases and, more specifically, on virulence evolution. However, we still lack an overall vision of the empirical support for these predictions. We argue that within‐host interactions between parasites largely determine how virulence evolves and that experimental data support model predictions. Then, we explore the main limitation of the experimental study of such ‘mixed infections’, which is that it draws conclusions on evolutionary outcomes from studies conducted at the individual level. We also discuss differences between coinfections caused by different strains of the same species or by different species. Overall, we argue that it is possible to make sense out of the complexity inherent to multiple infections and that experimental evolution settings may provide the best opportunity to further our understanding of virulence evolution.     

Host-parasite coevolutionary arms races give way to fluctuating selection

Host-parasite coevolution is a key driver of biological diversity and parasite virulence, but its effects depend on the nature of coevolutionary dynamics over time. We used phenotypic data from coevolving populations of the bacterium Pseudomonas fluorescens SBW25 and parasitic phage SBW25Φ2, and genetic data from the phage tail fibre gene (implicated in infectivity evolution) to show that arms race dynamics, typical of short-term studies, decelerate over time. We attribute this effect to increasing costs of generalism for phages and bacteria with increasing infectivity and resistance. By contrast, fluctuating selection on individual host and parasite genotypes was maintained over time, becoming increasingly important for the phenotypic properties of parasite and host populations. Given that costs of generalism are reported for many other systems, arms races may generally give way to fluctuating selection in antagonistically coevolving populations.     

Cheating, trade-offs and the evolution of aggressiveness in a natural pathogen population

The evolutionary dynamics of pathogens are critically important for disease outcomes, prevalence and emergence. In this study we investigate ecological conditions that may promote the long-term maintenance of virulence polymorphisms in pathogen populations. Recent theory predicts that evolution towards increased virulence can be reversed if less-aggressive social 'cheats' exploit more aggressive 'cooperator' pathogens. However, there is no evidence that social exploitation operates within natural pathogen populations. We show that for the bacterium Pseudomonas syringae, major polymorphisms for pathogenicity are maintained at unexpectedly high frequencies in populations infecting the host Arabidopsis thaliana. Experiments reveal that less-aggressive strains substantially increase their growth potential in mixed infections and have a fitness advantage in non-host environments. These results suggest that niche differentiation can contribute to the maintenance of virulence polymorphisms, and that both within-host and between-host growth rates modulate cheating and cooperation in P. syringae populations.     

QUANTITATIVE GENETICS OF SEXUAL SIZE DIMORPHISM IN THE COLLARED FLYCATCHER,FICEDULA ALBICOLLIS

Quantitative genetic theory predicts that evolution of sexual size dimorphism (SSD) will be a slow process if the genetic correlation in size between the sexes is close to unity, and the heritability of size is similar in both sexes. However, there are very few reliable estimates of genetic correlations and sex-specific heritabilities from natural populations, the reasons for this being that (1) offspring have often been sexed retrospectively, and hence, selection acting differently with respect to body size in the two sexes between measuring and sex identification can bias estimates of SSD; and (2) in many taxa, parents may be incorrectly assigned to offspring either because of assignment errors or because of extrapair paternity. We used molecular sex and paternity identification to overcome these problems and estimated sex-specific heritabilities and the genetic correlation in body size between the two sexes in the collared flycatcher, Ficedula albicollis. After exclusion of the illegitimate offspring, the genetic correlation in body size between the sexes was 1.00 (SE = 0.22), implying a severe constraint on the evolution of SSD in this species. Furthermore, sex-specific heritability estimates were very similar, indicating that neither sex will be able to evolve faster than the other. By using estimated genetic parameters, together with empirically derived estimates of sex-specific selection gradients, we further demonstrated that the predicted selection response in female tarsus length is displaced about 200% in the opposite direction from that to be expected if there were no genetic correlation between the sexes. The correspondence between the biochemically estimated rate of extrapair paternity (about 15 % of the young) and that estimated from the “heritability method” (11%) was good. However, the estimated rate of extrapair paternity with the heritability method after exclusion of the illegitimate young was 22%, adding to increasing evidence that factors other than extrapair paternity (e.g., maternal effects) may be resposible for the commonly observed higher mother-offspring than father-offspring resemblance.     

Balanced networks under spike-time dependent plasticity

The dynamics of local cortical networks are irregular, but correlated. Dynamic excitatory–inhibitory balance is a plausible mechanism that generates such irregular activity, but it remains unclear how balance is achieved and maintained in plastic neural networks. In particular, it is not fully understood how plasticity induced changes in the network affect balance, and in turn, how correlated, balanced activity impacts learning. How do the dynamics of balanced networks change under different plasticity rules? How does correlated spiking activity in recurrent networks change the evolution of weights, their eventual magnitude, and structure across the network? To address these questions, we develop a theory of spike–timing dependent plasticity in balanced networks. We show that balance can be attained and maintained under plasticity–induced weight changes. We find that correlations in the input mildly affect the evolution of synaptic weights. Under certain plasticity rules, we find an emergence of correlations between firing rates and synaptic weights. Under these rules, synaptic weights converge to a stable manifold in weight space with their final configuration dependent on the initial state of the network. Lastly, we show that our framework can also describe the dynamics of plastic balanced networks when subsets of neurons receive targeted optogenetic input.     

Evolution of Virulence in Emerging Epidemics

Theory predicts that selection for pathogen virulence and horizontal transmission is highest at the onset of an epidemic but decreases thereafter, as the epidemic depletes the pool of susceptible hosts. We tested this prediction by tracking the competition between the latent bacteriophage λ and its virulent mutant λcI857 throughout experimental epidemics taking place in continuous cultures of Escherichia coli. As expected, the virulent λcI857 is strongly favored in the early stage of the epidemic, but loses competition with the latent virus as prevalence increases. We show that the observed transient selection for virulence and horizontal transmission can be fully explained within the framework of evolutionary epidemiology theory. This experimental validation of our predictions is a key step towards a predictive theory for the evolution of virulence in emerging infectious diseases.     

Host heterogeneity is a determinant of competitive exclusion or coexistence in genetically diverse malaria infections

During an infection, malaria parasites compete for limited amounts of food and enemy-free space. Competition affects parasite growth rate, transmission and virulence, and is thus important for parasite evolution. Much evolutionary theory assumes that virulent clones outgrow avirulent ones, favouring the evolution of higher virulence. We infected laboratory mice with a mixture of two Plasmodium chabaudi clones: one virulent, the other avirulent. Using real-time quantitative PCR to track the two parasite clones over the course of the infection, we found that the virulent clone overgrew the avirulent clone. However, host genotype had a major effect on the outcome of competition. In a relatively resistant mouse genotype (C57B1/6J), the avirulent clone was suppressed below detectable levels after 10 days, and apparently lost from the infection. By contrast, in more susceptible mice (CBA/Ca), the avirulent clone was initially suppressed, but it persisted, and during the chronic phase of infection it did better than it did in single infections. Thus, the qualitative outcome of competition depended on host genotype. We suggest that these differences may be explained by different immune responses in the two mouse strains. Host genotype and resistance could therefore play a key role in the outcome of within-host competition between parasite clones and in the evolution of parasite virulence.