Large-scale spatial and temporal dynamics of the vulnerable and highly mobile superb parrot

Aim To investigate the spatial and temporal dynamics of the vulnerable and highly mobile superb parrot (Polytelis swainsonii) across its range in south‐eastern mainland Australia. Location South‐eastern Australia (27°–37° S latitude and 141°–151° E longitude). Methods We used generalized additive models (GAMs) to model time‐specific bird atlas occurrence data against time‐specific plant productivity data, plus a range of environmental predictor variables. We then examined the effects of environmental variables on the temporal and spatial patterns of predicted abundance and distribution of the superb parrot using a correlative mapping approach. Results Key findings from GAM analysis were: (1) there was a strong positive relationship between abundance and plant productivity in all regions, but (2) the response of abundance to other predictor variables often differed between regions. Correlative mapping predictions of the abundance and distribution of the superb parrot also indicated that: (1) predicted abundance varied through time and space, (2) predicted abundance sometimes decreased in all regions, but at other times some regions had high abundance when others had low, and (3) changes in plant productivity (and therefore climate) were associated with this variation. Main conclusion The superb parrot favours productive landscapes that are also favoured for agriculture. Movements appear to be associated with seasonal and year to year climate variability. Thus, variation in the recorded abundance of the superb parrot may mask population trends, suggesting that existing population estimates are unreliable. Also, high abundances in some areas, and at some times, may reflect deteriorating habitat conditions elsewhere rather than species recovery. Temporal variability in the distribution of the superb parrot makes it difficult to identify specific drought refugia. Consequently, through time, as key habitat continues to deteriorate, the species will become increasingly vulnerable and threatened. Whole‐landscape habitat conservation and restoration strategies are therefore needed to sustain superb parrot populations in the long‐term.     

Anaerobic methane oxidation in a coastal oxygen minimum zone: spatial and temporal dynamics

Coastal waters are a major source of marine methane to the atmosphere. Particularly high concentrations of this potent greenhouse gas are found in anoxic waters, but it remains unclear if and to what extent anaerobic methanotrophs mitigate the methane flux. Here we investigate the long-term dynamics in methanotrophic activity and the methanotroph community in the coastal oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) of Golfo Dulce, Costa Rica, combining biogeochemical analyses, experimental incubations and 16S rRNA gene sequencing over 3 consecutive years. Our results demonstrate a stable redox zonation across the years with high concentrations of methane (up to 1.7 μmol L⁻¹) in anoxic bottom waters. However, we also measured high activities of anaerobic methane oxidation in the OMZ core (rate constant, k, averaging 30 yr⁻¹ in 2018 and 8 yr⁻¹ in 2019–2020). The OPU3 and Deep Sea-1 clades of the Methylococcales were implicated as conveyors of the activity, peaking in relative abundance 5–25 m below the oxic–anoxic interface and in the deep anoxic water respectively. Although their genetic capacity for anaerobic methane oxidation remains unexplored, their sustained high relative abundance indicates an adaptation of these clades to the anoxic, methane-rich OMZ environment, allowing them to play major roles in mitigating methane fluxes.     

The spatial and temporal organization of ubiquitin networks

In the past decade, the diversity of signals generated by the ubiquitin system has emerged as a dominant regulator of biological processes and propagation of information in the eukaryotic cell. A wealth of information has been gained about the crucial role of spatial and temporal regulation of ubiquitin species of different lengths and linkages in the nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) pathway, endocytic trafficking, protein degradation and DNA repair. This spatiotemporal regulation is achieved through sophisticated mechanisms of compartmentalization and sequential series of ubiquitylation events and signal decoding, which control diverse biological processes not only in the cell but also during the development of tissues and entire organisms.     

Remote sensing and geographic information systems in the spatial temporal dynamics modeling of infectious diseases

Similar to species immigration or exotic species invasion, infectious disease transmission is strengthened due to the globalization of human activities. Using schistosomiasis as an example, we propose a conceptual model simulating the spatio-temporal dynamics of infectious diseases. We base the model on the knowledge of the interrelationship among the source, media, and the hosts of the disease. With the endemics data of schistosomiasis in Xichang, China, we demonstrate that the conceptual model is feasible; we introduce how remote sensing and geographic information systems techniques can be used in support of spatio-temporal modeling; we compare the different effects caused to the entire population when selecting different groups of people for schistosomiasis control. Our work illustrates the importance of such a modeling tool in supporting spatial decisions. Our modeling method can be directly applied to such infectious diseases as the plague, lyme disease, and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome. The application of remote sensing and geographic information systems can shed light on the modeling of other infectious disease and invasive species studies.     

中国流行的狂犬病病毒时空进化分析

本研究对1931~2009年间分离于中国20个省区的167株狂犬病病毒的N基因序列进行进化分析,以探讨中国狂犬病病毒株的基因分型和分组情况、时间和空间的动态进化。结果显示:从中国分离的毒株都属于基因1型狂犬病病毒,可以分为2个进化分支共计8个组,分支Ⅰ包括1~4组,分支Ⅱ包括5~8组;选择压力分析表明中国狂犬病病毒处于较强的净化选择约束下,狂犬病病毒N基因中的核苷酸突变主要是同义突变;运用贝叶斯中的马尔科夫链的蒙特卡洛方法估计中国狂犬病病毒N基因核苷酸的平均碱基替代率为4×10-4替代/位点/年,共同祖先出现的时间不超过2000年前;迁移分析表明中国狂犬病病毒株存在跨地域传播。     

Human influence on the temporal dynamics and spatial distribution of forest biomass carbon in China

Global carbon cycles are impacted by human activity primarily via fossil fuel combustion and forest carbon budget alterations. In this study, the temporal dynamics and spatial distribution of forest biomass carbon (FBC) stock and density in China were analyzed to assess the large‐scale effects of humans on FBC. The results indicated that from 1977 to 2013, the FBC stock increased by 62.9%, from 4,335 to 7,064 Tg C, owing to human‐driven forestation and ecological restoration programs. Because of intensive human impacts, 44.2%–54.6% of the FBC stock was concentrated in four provinces (Heilongjiang, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Sichuan) and the FBC density increased from the densely populated southeastern provinces to the sparsely populated northeastern and western provinces. On a spatial scale, the FBC density was significantly negatively related to population density, and the degree of the dependence of the FBC density on population density has been declining since 1998. This improvement in human–forest relations is related to economic development and programs in China that have promoted forestation and reduced deforestation. These results suggest that human impacts, including forestation, deforestation, population density, and economic development, have played significant roles in determining the temporal and spatial variations of FBC in the anthropogenic era. Moreover, our findings have implications for forest management and improvement of the forest carbon sink in China.     

Predictive spatial dynamics and strategic planning for raccoon rabies emergence in Ohio

Rabies is an important public health concern in North America because of recent epidemics of a rabies virus variant associated with raccoons. The costs associated with surveillance, diagnostic testing, and post-exposure treatment of humans exposed to rabies have fostered coordinated efforts to control rabies spread by distributing an oral rabies vaccine to wild raccoons. Authorities have tried to contain westward expansion of the epidemic front of raccoon-associated rabies via a vaccine corridor established in counties of eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Although sporadic cases of rabies have been identified in Ohio since oral rabies vaccine distribution in 1998, the first evidence of a significant breach in this vaccine corridor was not detected until 2004 in Lake County, Ohio. Herein, we forecast the spatial spread of rabies in Ohio from this breach using a stochastic spatial model that was first developed for exploratory data analysis in Connecticut and next used to successfully hind-cast wave-front dynamics of rabies spread across New York. The projections, based on expansion from the Lake County breach, are strongly affected by the spread of rabies by rare, but unpredictable long-distance translocation of rabid raccoons; rabies may traverse central Ohio at a rate 2.5-fold greater than previously analyzed wildlife epidemics. Using prior estimates of the impact of local heterogeneities on wave-front propagation and of the time lag between surveillance-based detection of an initial rabies case to full-blown epidemic, specific regions within the state are identified for vaccine delivery and expanded surveillance effort.     

Analysis of rabies in China: transmission dynamics and control

Human rabies is one of the major public-health problems in China. The number of human rabies cases has increased dramatically in the last 15 years, partially due to the poor understanding of the transmission dynamics of rabies and the lack of effective control measures of the disease. In this article, in order to explore effective control and prevention measures we propose a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of rabies in China. The model consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The model simulations agree with the human rabies data reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health. We estimate that the basic reproduction number for the rabies transmission in China and predict that the number of the human rabies is decreasing but may reach another peak around 2030. We also perform some sensitivity analysis of in terms of the model parameters and compare the effects of culling and immunization of dogs. Our study demonstrates that (i) reducing dog birth rate and increasing dog immunization coverage rate are the most effective methods for controlling rabies in China; and (ii) large scale culling of susceptible dogs can be replaced by immunization of them.     

Modeling temporal and spatial colony-site dynamics in a long-lived seabird

We studied the determinants of colony site dynamics in Audouin's gull, Larus audouinii, breeding in a small archipelago of the western Mediterranean. Data on island occupation were available for a series of 25 years, since first colonization of the archipelago in 1973. Group behavior was studied in relation to the components of dispersal: permanence or abandonment (extinction) on an island previously occupied and permanence or occupation (colonization) of another island. Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs) were used to identify the relative contribution of each explanatory variable to the probability of colony abandonment. Gulls showed a low probability (3%) of abandoning one of the islands (Grossa I.), especially when the colony was increasing in numbers from time t_i-1 to t_i. However, the probability of abandoning Grossa increased up to 31% when the colony was declining. The probability of island abandonment was very high for all other islands (range 66–99%) when the colony was declining, but much lower (range 36–82%) when it was increasing. Hence, we suggest that island abandonment by Audouin's gull is at least a two-step process. The first step (dispersal of a portion of the colony) probably takes place at random, as an evolutionary load typical of a species evolved in unstable habitats. The second step, a further loss of breeding pairs, seems to feedback on the first loss of members of the colony (public information), likely perceived as a loss of colony quality. Colonization of islands by gulls abandoning Grossa I. was marginally and negatively affected by the density of breeding yellow-legged gulls, a predatory species. Results apply to conservation ecology since they highlight the need to protect not only occupied patches but also those empty at present.     

Visualization of the spatial and temporal dynamics of intracellular signaling

In recent years, our ability to unravel the finer details of intracellular signaling has improved remarkably. Technological innovations resulting from the introduction of green fluorescent protein (GFP) have played a significant role in these advances. Fluorescent indicators allow us to visualize events within a cell in real-time and space. This review focuses on indicators that use GFP-based fluorescence resonance energy transfer (FRET) technologies and discusses how these methodologies have given insights into biological questions relating to the spatiotemporal patterns of signaling by cAMP, calcium, receptor tyrosine kinases, and other molecules.     

1960-2010年广西红树林空间分布演变机制

为全面摸清1960—2010年广西红树林空间分布及其演变机制,采用多源遥感数据提取不同年度的红树林空间分布信息,分析了广西红树林空间分布动态特点,采用基于斑块的红树林空间演变机理分析方法,研究了1960/1976—2010年广西红树林空间演变机制。结果表明:1960/1976年、1990s年、2001年、2007年和2010年广西红树林斑块数量分别为1020、829、1094、1718个和1712个,面积分别为9062.5、7430.1、7015.4、6743.2、7054.3 hm2,近50年间红树林面积减少了22.16%,年均减少0.53%,斑块数量增加了67.8%;斑块平均面积由1960/1976年的8.9 hm2减小至2010年的4.1 hm2,大斑块数量显著减少,斑块破碎化严重;不同时期、不同区域和海湾,红树林面积和斑块数量的变化量、变化速率均不同;1960/1976年的斑块中,只有24个斑块至2010年时尚保持稳定,占2.4%,绝大部分斑块都发生了某种程度的变化。进一步分析结果表明:1960/1976—2010年,斑块消失(46.1%)、碎化(40.4%)、萎缩(13.5%)是面积减少的主要途径,新增(70.0%)和碎化(29.9%)是斑块数量增加的主要途径,但在不同时期,斑块数量和面积在各个途径上发生的变化量不尽相同;养殖塘和盐田建设(80.0%)、工程建设(10.9%)和围垦(9.1%)是面积净减少的驱动因子,自然过程(92.6%)和人工造林(7.4%)是斑块数量净增加的驱动因子,不同驱动因子在不同时期对斑块数量和面积变化的影响程度不同;斑块数量变化主要由自然过程作用下通过新增(39.6%)、消失(-9.1%)两个途径,以及养殖塘和盐田作用下通过消失(-15.3%)、碎化(14.5%)两个途径发生,斑块面积变化主要由自然过程影响下通过新增(17.5%)、扩张(12.6%)、消失(-6.1%),以及养殖塘和盐田建设驱动下通过斑块消失(-14.8%)、碎化(-13.9%)、萎缩(-6.6%)3个途径发生。     

A theory of the spatial and temporal dynamics of plant communities

An individual-based model of plant competition for light that uses a definition of plant functional types based on adaptations for the simultaneous use of water and light can reproduce the fundamental spatial and temporal patterns of plant communities. This model shows that succession and zonation result from the same basic processes. Succession is interpreted as a temporal shift in species dominance, primarily in response to autogenic changes in light availability. Zonation is interpreted as a spatial shift in species dominance, primarily in response to the effect of allogenic changes in water availability on the dynamics of competition for light. Patterns of succession at different points along a moisture gradient can be used to examine changes in the ecological roles of various functional types, as well as to address questions of shifts in patterns of resource use through time.Our model is based on the cost-benefit concept that plant adaptations for the simultaneous use of two or more resources are limited by physiological and life history constraints. Three general sets of adaptive constraints produce inverse correlations in the ability of plants to efficiently use (1) light at both high and low availability, (2) water at both high and low availability, and (3) both water and light at low availabilities.The results of this type of individual-based model can be aggregated to examine phenomena at several levels of system organization (i.e., subdisciplines of ecology), including (1) plant growth responses over a range of environmental conditions, (2) population dynamics and size structure, (3) experimental and field observations on the distribution of species across environmental gradients, (4) studies of successional pattern, (5) plant physiognomy and community structure across environmental gradients, and (6) nutrient cycling.     

Two centuries of spatial and temporal dynamics of freshwater fish introductions

Aim

Investigating major freshwater fish flows (translocations) between biogeographic regions and their temporal dynamics and also quantifying spatial patterns and temporal changes in the array of introduced species, and the emergence and distance between major donor and recipient regions.

Location

Global.

Time Period

1800–2020.

Major Taxa Studied

Freshwater fishes.

Methods

We analysed a global dataset on freshwater fish introductions (4241 events of 688 species). Freshwater fish flows were investigated with flow diagrams and χ² tests, while PERMANOVA (permutational multivariate analysis of variance) was used to test the association between species and regions and temporal shifts. Cluster analysis revealed major recipient areas and composition of the introduced species. Finally, changes in distances between donor and recipient sites were tested with PERMANOVA.

Results

The number of introductions between biogeographic regions mirrored the European and North American dominance before World War II (WWII) and the trends in recreational fishing, biocontrol programmes and food production, especially in the Sino-Oriental region, which has a long tradition of aquaculture and fishkeeping. Over the years, the origins and composition of introduced species changed uniquely in each biogeographic region, although the most introduced species are common to every region. Salmonids and other cold-water species were frequently introduced before the 1950s, whereas tropical ornamental and aquaculture species currently prevail. Distances between donor and recipient sites did not vary over the time. After WWII, the Sino-Oriental region consolidated its dominance and the Ethiopian and Neotropical regions emerged as new global donor and recipient regions.

Main Conclusions

Global policy should focus on tropical ornamental and aquaculture species, which could benefit from global warming, especially in the Sino-Oriental region, because it currently dominates freshwater fish species flows, and the Ethiopian and Neotropical regions, because they recently emerged as important global donor and recipient regions of freshwater fish introductions.     

Plant reproductive allocation predicts herbivore dynamics across spatial and temporal scales

Life-history theory suggests that iteroparous plants should be flexible in their allocation of resources toward growth and reproduction. Such plasticity could have consequences for herbivores that prefer or specialize on vegetative versus reproductive structures. To test this prediction, we studied the response of the cactus bug (Narnia pallidicornis) to meristem allocation by tree cholla cactus (Opuntia imbricata). We evaluated the explanatory power of demographic models that incorporated variation in cactus relative reproductive effort (RRE; the proportion of meristems allocated toward reproduction). Field data provided strong support for a single model that defined herbivore fecundity as a time-varying, increasing function of host RRE. High-RRE plants were predicted to support larger insect populations, and this effect was strongest late in the season. Independent field data provided strong support for these qualitative predictions and suggested that plant allocation effects extend across temporal and spatial scales. Specifically, late-season insect abundance was positively associated with interannual changes in cactus RRE over 3 years. Spatial variation in insect abundance was correlated with variation in RRE among five cactus populations across New Mexico. We conclude that plant allocation can be a critical component of resource quality for insect herbivores and, thus, an important mechanism underlying variation in herbivore abundance across time and space.     

西南地区生态系统服务价值时空演变及模拟预测

生态系统服务价值(ESV)分析对构建生态安全格局和实现区域可持续发展具有决定作用,为揭示西南地区ESV过去-现在-未来时空演变规律,运用ESV计算体系对西南地区2005—2015ESV动态演变进行定量分析,采用Logistic-CA-Markov耦合模型预测2025年ESV格局。结果表明:(1)2005—2015年西南地区总体呈现增长的趋势,其值达到20.85亿元,主要受青海、西藏水域ESV增加所致,青海、西藏ESV增长率占绝对优势。(2)空间上呈现西北和东南部ESV高、北部ESV低的分布格局;不同类型和不同等级的ESV在空间上相互转换,低等级向高等级转化明显,其他生态景观向建设用地亏损流动减少的价值不足以抵消向水域流动增加的价值,盈利大于亏损,生态环境明显好转。(3)Logistic回归分析各生态景观的ROC值均大于0.87,拟合结果能够满足预测要求;CA-Markov模拟ESV空间布局,Kappa系数为0.86,可以在整体上较准确的反映其空间演变格局。(4)2015—2025年ESV空间演化表明西南地区各区域生态环境总体趋于良好,但建设用地增加的生态负效应不可忽视,还需合理进行用地布局。研究揭示了西南地区过去-现在-未来ESV时空演化规律,提供了长时间序列的时空演化图谱,对该地区实施卓有成效的生态规划及可持续发展提供了科技支撑和重要参考。