State‐dependent dynamics of cycles in red grouse abundance

Fluctuating populations are frequently demonstrated to co‐vary in abundance over space, but the dynamics of coupling between populations that gives rise to this synchrony are poorly understood. Synchrony may arise through coupling that is weak and continuous, but in populations that cycle with a characteristic period, synchrony can be maintained through stronger coupling that acts only intermittently. Here, we apply a discrete Markov model that describes the state of a population trajectory to be in one of four possible states. The Markov model reveals the nature of the coupling that gives rise to the weakly synchronous cycles of red grouse abundance. Using time‐series data from 287 populations across the species range in the UK, we show that grouse populations appear mostly uncoupled through time, but that approximately one year in six, “collective forcing events” occur, where populations in a region are forced into synchrony to a significantly greater degree than would be expected if their dynamics proceeded independently. In the absence of these events, synchrony between populations dissipates within ~3 yr. Smaller, low abundance populations tend to make the less probable phase shifts required to synchronize with nearby high abundance populations, suggesting that these low abundance populations are more susceptible to the perturbations responsible for phase shifts than larger populations.     

Dynamics of a physiologically structured population in a time-varying environment

Physiologically structured population models have become a valuable tool to model the dynamics of populations. In a stationary environment such models can exhibit equilibrium solutions as well as periodic solutions. However, for many organisms the environment is not stationary, but varies more or less regularly. In order to understand the interaction between an external environmental forcing and the internal dynamics in a population, we examine the response of a physiologically structured population model to a periodic variation in the food resource. We explore the addition of forcing in two cases: (A) where the population dynamics is in equilibrium in a stationary environment, and (B) where the population dynamics exhibits a periodic solution in a stationary environment. When forcing is applied in case A, the solutions are mainly periodic. In case B the forcing signal interacts with the oscillations of the unforced system, and both periodic and irregular (quasi-periodic or chaotic) solutions occur. In both cases the periodic solutions include one and multiple period cycles, and each cycle can have several reproduction pulses.     

Spatio-temporal dynamics of the grey-sided vole in Hokkaido: identifying coupling using state-based Markov-chain modelling

Explaining synchronization of cyclical or fluctuating populations over geographical regions presents ecologists with novel analytical challenges. We have developed a method to measure synchrony within spatial-temporal datasets of population densities applicable to both periodic and irregularly fluctuating populations. The dynamics of each constituent population is represented by a discrete Markov model. The state of a population trajectory at each time-point is classified as one of 'increase', 'decrease', 'peak' or 'trough'. The set of populations at any time-point is characterized by the frequency distribution of these different states, and the time-evolution of this frequency distribution used to test the hypothesis that the dynamics of each population proceeds independently of the others. The analysis identifies years in which population coupling results in synchronous states and onto which states the system converges, and identifies those years in which synchrony remains high but is accounted for by coupling observed in previous years. It also enables identification of which pairs of sites show the highest levels of coupling. Applying these methods to populations of the grey-sided vole on Hokkaido reveals them to be fluctuating in greater synchrony than would be expected from independent dynamics, and that this level of synchrony is maintained through intermittent coupling acting in ca. 1 year in four or five. High synchrony occurs between sites with similar vegetation and of similar altitude indicating that coupling may be mediated through shared environmental stimuli. When coupling is indicated, convergence is equally likely to occur on a peak state as a trough, indicating that synchronization may be brought about by the response of populations to a combination of different stimuli rather than by the action of any single process.     

Modeling spatial dynamics of episodic and synchronous reproduction by plant populations: the effect of small-scale pollen coupling and large-scale climate

Many plant species show masting, intermittent and synchronized reproduction at population level. In the present paper, we review the resource-based model providing a theoretically plausible physiological mechanism underlying masting. In the model, a non-linear allocation of energy reserves is considered: plants accumulate photosynthate every year, produce flowers when the energy reserve level exceeds a threshold, and set seeds at a rate limited by pollen availability. The model predicted that individual plants alter their reproductive dynamics from annual to intermittent depending on how heavily the plant invests resource in reproduction. When fruit production is limited by the availability of outcross pollen, a plant population showed diverse reproductive behavior such as completely synchronized or desynchronized reproduction. Spatial scale of reproductive synchrony tended to be a few times larger than the range of direct pollen exchange. Impact of climatic fluctuation correlated at a large spatial scale was also investigated as an alternative synchronizing factor. The variation in annual productivity and the reproductive threshold induced from climatic fluctuation was accounted for by incorporating an additional term in the model. When plants show a 2 year reproductive cycle, highly synchronized reproduction at a regional scale was induced due to correlated environmental forcing, but reproductive synchrony with long intermast periods was realized only when pollen coupling and environmental forcing were at work. These results suggest that distance-dependent processes, such as pollen exchange between nearby trees, induce synchrony at a local scale and external environmental forcing correlated at geographically large scales works to strengthen and maintain such a synchrony.     

Environmental forcing, invasion and control of ecological and epidemiological systems

Destabilising a biological system through periodic or stochastic forcing can lead to significant changes in system behaviour. Forcing can bring about coexistence when previously there was exclusion; it can excite massive system response through resonance, it can offset the negative effect of apparent competition and it can change the conditions under which the system can be invaded. Our main focus is on the invasion properties of continuous time models under periodic forcing. We show that invasion is highly sensitive to the strength, period, phase, shape and configuration of the forcing components. This complexity can be of great advantage if some of the forcing components are anthropogenic in origin. They can be turned into instruments of control to achieve specific objectives in ecology and disease management, for example. Culling, vaccination and resource regulation are considered. A general analysis is presented, based on the leading Lyapunov exponent criterion for invasion. For unstructured invaders, a formula for this exponent can typically be written down from the model equations. Whether forcing hinders or encourages invasion depends on two factors: the covariances between invader parameters and resident populations and the shifts in average resident population levels brought about by the forcing. The invasion dynamics of a structured invader are much more complicated but an analytic solution can be obtained in quadratic approximation for moderate forcing strength. The general theory is illustrated by a range of models drawn from ecology and epidemiology. The relationship between periodic and stochastic forcing is also considered.     

CULTURE STUDIES ON THE MARINE GREEN ALGA HALICYSTIS PARVULA—DERBESIA TENUISSIMA. II. SYNCHRONY AND PERIODICITY IN GAMETE FORMATION AND RELEASE

Unialgal cultures of the macroscopic, vesicular, coenocytic gametophyte (Halicystis parvula Schmitz) of Derbesia tenuissima (DeNotaris) Crouan fr. were grown under various environmental regimes to elucidate the cytology of gamete formation and the factors controlling synchronous gamete formation and release. No synchrony of nuclear division was observed in vegetative plants or during the early stages of gamete formation. In the later stages of gamete formation in plants in a light-dark cycle, nuclear divisions within any gametangium were synchronous, and the stages of gamete formation were synchronous for the population. This synchrony was not as great for plants in continuous light. Gametes of plants in a light-dark cycle were released explosively immediately following the dark-to-light transition. Release was random and much less forceful for plants in continuous light. After a certain stage of gamete formation, gamete release was timed to occur after a particular interval of darkness, but release could be triggered by light during the last portion of this interval. The length of the dark interval was shorter for male plants than for females, but the period of light sensitivity was longer for females. Formation of gametangia by series of isolated plants was also synchronous and sometimes periodic under certain conditions. Intervals between gametangia on the same plant varied from 2 to 14 days but were usually 4 or 5 days (unlike plants in nature, which show a bi- or tri-weekly periodicity). Male and female plants did not differ in synchrony or periodicity. Different media affected the number of gametangia formed over a period of time but not the synchrony of formation. Under some conditions changing the medium had a stimulating or synchronizing effect. Non-repeated temperature changes also synchronized gamete formation. Optimum temperature for continued gamete formation was about 21 C. Regular daily light and temperature variation together maintained synchronous and periodic gamete formation in populations of isolated plants. Reproduction diminished and became less synchronous at constant temperature either in continuous light or under a light-dark schedule, although in the light-dark regime steps in the formation of any given gametangium remained synchronous with the light-dark cycle. Length of times between gametangial formation on individual plants showed a tendency to occur in multiples of the usual period lengths; e.g., plants sometimes tend to “skip” intervals, thus maintaining the synchrony of the population. These results suggest that interaction between daily environmental cycles and an endogenous physiological cycle may maintain periodic reproduction.     

Iteroparous reproduction strategies and population dynamics

Asymptotic relationships between a class of continuous partial differential equation population models and a class of discrete matrix equations are derived for iteroparous populations. First, the governing equations are presented for the dynamics of an individual with juvenile and adult life stages. The organisms reproduce after maturation, as determined by the juvenile period, and at specific equidistant ages, which are determined by the iteroparous reproductive period. A discrete population matrix model is constructed that utilizes the reproductive information and a density-dependent mortality function. Mortality in the period between two reproductive events is assumed to be a continuous process where the death rate for the adults is a function of the number of adults and environmental conditions. The asymptotic dynamic behaviour of the discrete population model is related to the steady-state solution of the continuous-time formulation. Conclusions include that there can be a lack of convergence to the steady-state age distribution in discrete event reproduction models. The iteroparous vital ratio (the ratio between the maximal age and the reproductive period) is fundamental to determining this convergence. When the vital ratio is rational, an equivalent discrete-time model for the population can be derived whose asymptotic dynamics are periodic and when there are a finite number of founder cohorts, the number of cohorts remains finite. When the ratio is an irrational number, effectively there is convergence to the steady-state age distribution. With a finite number of founder cohorts, the number of cohorts becomes countably infinite. The matrix model is useful to clarify numerical results for population models with continuous densities as well as delta measure age distribution. The applicability in ecotoxicology of the population matrix model formulation for iteroparous populations is discussed.     

Modeling shifts in microbial populations associated with health or disease

Stable microbial communities associated with health can be disrupted by altered environmental conditions. Periodontal diseases are associated with changes in the resident oral microflora. For example, as gingivitis develops, a key change in the microbial composition of dental plaque is the ascendancy of Actinomyces spp. and gram-negative rods at the expense of Streptococcus spp. We describe the use of an in vitro model to replicate this population shift, first with a dual-species model (Actinomyces naeslundii and Streptococcus sobrinus) and then using a microcosm model of dental plaque. The population shift was induced by environmental changes associated with gingivitis, first by the addition of artificial gingival crevicular fluid and then by a switch to a microaerophilic atmosphere. In addition to the observed population shifts, confocal laser scanning microscopy also revealed structural changes and differences in the distribution of viable and nonviable bacteria associated with the change in environmental conditions. This model provides an appropriate system for the further understanding of microbial population shifts associated with gingivitis and for the testing of, for example, antimicrobial agents.     

Spatially structured population dynamics in feral oilseed rape

We studied the population dynamics of feral oilseed rape (Brassica napus) for 10 years (1993-2002) in 3658 adjacent permanent 100 m quadrats in the verges of the M25 motorway around London, UK. The aim was to determine the relative importance of different factors affecting the observed temporal patterns of population dynamics and their spatial correlations. A wide range of population dynamics was observed (downward or upward trends, cycles, local extinctions and recolonizations), but overall the populations were not self-replacing (lambda < 1). Many quadrats remained unoccupied throughout the study period, but a few were occupied at high densities for all 10 years. Most quadrats showed transient oilseed rape populations, lasting 1-4 years. There were strong spatial patterns in mean population density, associated with soil conditions and the successional age of the plant community dominating the verge, and these large-scale spatial patterns were highly consistent from year to year. The importance of seed spilled from trucks in transit to the processing plant at Erith in Kent was confirmed: rape populations were significantly higher on the 'to Erith' verge than the 'from Erith' verge (overall mean 2.83-fold greater stem density). Quadrats in which lambda > 1 were much more frequent in the 'to Erith' verge, indicating that seed immigration can give the spurious impression of self-replacing population dynamics in time-series analysis. There was little evidence of a pervasive Moran effect, and climatic forcing did not produce widespread large-scale synchrony in population dynamics for the motorway as a whole; just 23% of quadrats had significant rank correlations with the mean time-series. There was, however, significant local spatial synchrony of population dynamics, apparently associated with soil disturbance and seed input. This study draws attention to the possibility that different processes may impose population synchrony at different scales. We hypothesize that synchrony in this system is driven by at least three processes: small-scale, local forcing caused by soil disturbance, intermediate-scale forcing as a result of seed input, and large-scale climatic forcing (e.g. winter rainfall) that affects the motorway as a whole.     

Complex dynamics of microbial competition in the gradostat

We examine the conditions necessary for the emergence of complex dynamic behavior in systems of microbial competition. In particular, we study the effect of spatial heterogeneity and substrate-inhibition on the dynamics of such a system. This is accomplished through the study of a mathematical model of two microbial populations competing for a single nutrient in a configuration of two interconnected chemostats. Microbial growth is assumed to follow substrate-inhibited kinetics for both species. Such a system with sterile feed has been shown in a previous work to exhibit stable periodic states. In the present work we study the system for the case of non-sterile feed, i.e., when the two species are present in the feed of the chemostats. The analysis is done by numerical bifurcation theory methods. We demonstrate that, in addition to periodic states, the system possesses stable quasi-periodic states resulting from Neimark-Sacker bifurcations of limit cycles. Also, periodic states may undergo successive period doublings leading to periodic states of increasing period and indicating that chaotic states might be possible. Multistability is also observed, consisting in the coexistence of several stable steady states and possibly stable periodic or quasi-periodic states for given operating conditions. It appears that substrate-inhibition, spatial heterogeneity and presence of microorganisms in the inflow are all necessary conditions for complex dynamics to arise in a microbial system of pure and simple competition.     

Frequency responses of age-structured populations: Pacific salmon as an example

Increasing evidence of the effects of changing climate on physical ocean conditions and long-term changes in fish populations adds to the need to understand the effects of stochastic forcing on marine populations. Cohort resonance is of particular interest because it involves selective sensitivity to specific time scales of environmental variability, including that of mean age of reproduction, and, more importantly, very low frequencies (i.e., trends). We present an age-structured model for two Pacific salmon species with environmental variability in survival rate and in individual growth rate, hence spawning age distribution. We use computed frequency response curves and analysis of the linearized dynamics to obtain two main results. First, the frequency response of the population is affected by the life history stage at which variability affects the population; varying growth rate tends to excite periodic resonance in age structure, while varying survival tends to excite low frequency fluctuation with more effect on total population size. Second, decreasing adult survival strengthens the cohort resonance effect at all frequencies, a finding that addresses the question of how fishing and climate change will interact.     

INTRODUCTION

Foliage-feeding forest insects have served as model systems in the study of animal populations for more than 50 years. Early studies emphasized identification of "key" mortality agents or density-dependent sources of mortality. However, these efforts became burdened by rhetorical ambiguity, and population ecologists are increasingly focusing on characterizing population behavior and identifying the processes that generate that behavior. Two types of behavior seem to be common in forest insect populations: periodic oscillations ("population cycles") and spatial synchrony (synchronous fluctuations over large geographic areas). Several population processes (e.g., host–pathogen interactions) have been demonstrated to be capable of producing periodic oscillations, but the precise identity of these processes remains uncertain for most forest insects and presents a challenge to future research. As part of these efforts, a greater emphasis is needed on the use of statistical methods for detecting periodic behavior and for identifying other types of population behavior (e.g., equilibrium dynamics, limit cycles, transient dynamics). Spatial synchrony appears to be even more ubiquitous in forest insect populations. Dispersal and regional stochasticity ("Moran effect") have been shown to be capable of producing synchrony, but again more research is needed to determine the relative contribution of these processes to synchrony observed in natural populations. In addition, there is a need to search for other types of time–space patterns (e.g., traveling waves, spiral waves) in forest insect populations and to determine their causes. Received: April 25, 2000 / Accepted: September 22, 2000     

Globally attracting attenuant versus resonant cycles in periodic compensatory Leslie models

We use a periodically forced density-dependent compensatory Leslie model to study the combined effects of environmental fluctuations and age-structure on pioneer populations. In constant environments, the models have globally attracting positive fixed points. However, with the advent of periodic forcing, the models have globally attracting cycles. We derive conditions under which the cycle is attenuant, resonant, and neither attenuant nor resonant. These results show that the response of age-structured populations to environmental fluctuations is a complex function of the compensatory mechanisms at different life-history stages, the fertile age classes and the period of the environment.     

Anisotropic patterned population synchrony in climatic gradients indicates nonlinear climatic forcing

Although climatic forcing has been suspected to be the most common cause of spatial population synchrony owing to the Moran effect, it has proved difficult to disentangle the impact of climate from other possible causes of synchrony based on population survey data. Nonlinear population responses to climatic variation may be a part of this difficulty, but they can also provide an opportunity to highlight the climate impacts through targeted survey designs. In particular, when species distribution ranges encompass consistent spatial gradients in climate (e.g. according to latitude or altitude), such gradients can be strategically included in the spatial design of population surveys as to facilitate comparisons of spatial synchrony patterns across and along the gradient. In that case, we predict that nonlinear impacts of climatic variation on population growth rates will result in anisotropic (direction specific) synchrony patterns in the sense that synchrony will drop faster with distance along the climatic gradient than across it. We provide an empirical case study to exemplify survey design and analyses. Of two sympatric species of geometrids, inhabiting an altitudinal gradient in subarctic birch forest, one (Operophtera brumata L.) showed anisotropic synchrony consistent with a strongly nonlinear sensitivity to climatic variation, whereas the other (Epirrita autumnata Bkh.) did not. These results are interpreted in light of the biological characteristics of the species.     

Hippocampal rhythm generation: Gamma-related theta-frequency resonance in CA3 interneurons

 During different behavioral states different population activities are present in the hippocampal formation. These activities are not independent: sharp waves often occur together with high-frequency ripples, and gamma-frequency activity is usually superimposed on theta oscillations. There is both experimental and theoretical evidence supporting the notion that gamma oscillation is generated intrahippocampally, but there is no generally accepted view about the origin of theta waves. Precise timing of population bursts of pyramidal cells may be due to a synchronized external drive. Membrane potential oscillations recorded in the septum are unlikely to fulfill this purpose because they are not coherent enough. We investigated the prospects of an intrahippocampal mechanism supplying pyramidal cells with theta frequency periodic inhibition, by studying a model of a network of hippocampal inhibitory interneurons. As shown previously, interneurons are capable of generating synchronized gamma-frequency action potential oscillations. Exciting the neurons by periodic current injection, the system could either be entrained in an oscillation with the frequency of the inducing current or exhibit in-phase periodic changes at the frequency of single cell (and network) activity. Simulations that used spatially inhomogeneous stimulus currents showed anti-phase frequency changes across cells, which resulted in a periodic decrease in the synchrony of the network. As this periodic change in synchrony occurred in the theta frequency range, our network should be able to exhibit the theta-frequency weakening of inhibition of pyramidal cells, thus offering a possible mechanism for intrahippocampal theta generation. Received: 23 February 2000 / Accepted in revised form: 30 June 2000     

Population synchrony and stability in environmentally forced metacommunities

A general prediction from simple metapopulation models is that spatially synchronized forcing can spatially synchronize population dynamics and destabilize metapopulations. In contrast, spatially asynchronous forcing is predicted to decrease population synchrony and promote temporal stability and population persistence, especially in the presence of dispersal. Only recently have studies begun to experimentally address these predictions. Moreover, few studies have experimentally examined how such processes operate in the context of competition communities. Stabilizing processes may continue to operate when placed within a metacommunity context with multiple competing consumers but only at low to intermediate levels of dispersal. High dispersal rates can reverse these predictions and lead to destabilization. We tested this under controlled conditions using an experimental aquatic system composed of three competing species of zooplankton. Metacommunities experienced different levels of dispersal and environmental forcing in the form of spatially synchronous or asynchronous pH perturbations. We found support that dispersal can have contrasting effects on population stability depending on the degree to which population dynamics were synchronized in space. Dispersal under synchronous forcing or no forcing had either neutral of positive effects on spatial population synchrony of all three zooplankton species. In these treatments, dispersal reduced population stability at the local and metapopulation levels for two of three species. In contrast, asynchronously varying environments reduced population synchrony relative to unforced systems, regardless of dispersal level. In these treatments, dispersal enhanced temporal stability and persistence of populations not by reducing population synchrony but by enhancing population minima and spatial averaging of abundances. High dispersal rates under asynchronous forcing reduced the abundance of one species, consistent with increasing regional competition and general metacommunity theory. However, no effects on its stability or persistence were observed. Our work highlights the context‐dependent effects of dispersal on population dynamics in varying environments.     

Dispersal, colored environmental noise, and spatial synchrony in population dynamics: analyzing a discrete host–parasitoid population model

Spatial synchrony is common, and its influences and causes have attracted the interest of ecologists. Spatially correlated environmental noise, dispersal, and trophic interactions have been considered as the causes of spatial synchrony. In this study, we developed a spatially structured population model, which is described by coupled-map lattices. Our recent investigation showed that trophic correlation of environmental noise was another important factor that affects spatial synchrony. As a supplement, we considered the influence of the color of the environmental noise on the spatial synchrony in this study. The noise color refers to the temporal correlation in the time series data of the noise, and is expressed as the degree of (first-order) autocorrelation for autoregressive noise. Patterns of spatial synchrony were considered for stable, periodic (quasi-periodic), and chaotic population dynamics. Numerical simulations verified that the color of the environmental noise is another mechanism that causes spatial synchrony. Generally, the effect of the color of the noise on the synchrony is dependent on the type of dynamics (stable, cyclic, chaotic) present in the population. For cyclic dynamics, simulation results clearly demonstrate that reddened noise has higher synchrony than white noise. The importance of our research is that it enriches the theory of potential causes of spatial synchrony.     

Life history strategies affect climate based spatial synchrony in population dynamics of West African freshwater fishes

Spatial synchrony in species abundance is a general phenomenon that has been found in populations representing virtually all major taxa. Dispersal among populations and synchronous stochastic effects (the so called "Moran effect") are the mechanisms most likely to explain such synchrony patterns. Very few studies have related the degree of spatial synchrony to the biological characteristics of species. Here we present a case where specific predictions can be made to relate river fish species characteristics and synchrony determined exclusively by a Moran effect through the expected sensitivity of species to the regional component of environmental stochasticity. By analyzing 23-year time series of abundance estimates in two isolated localities we show that species associated with synchronized reproduction during the wet season, high fecundity, small egg size and high gonado-somatic index (the so called "periodic" strategy) have a higher degree of spatial synchrony in population dynamics than species associated with the opposite traits (the so called "equilibrium" strategy). This is supported by significant relationships (P values <0.01) between species traits and the levels of synchrony after removing taxonomical relatedness. Spatial synchrony computed from summed annual total catches by groups of species, separated into strategy types also showed a significantly higher degree of synchrony for the periodic (r=0.83) than the equilibrium (r=0.46) group. Regional hydrological variability is likely to be partly responsible for the observed synchrony pattern and a regional discharge index showed better relationships with the periodic group, supporting the expected differential effect of regional environmental correlation on population dynamics.     

Spatial synchrony in red grouse population dynamics

Red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus populations exhibit unstable dynamics that are often characterised by regular periodic fluctuations in abundance. Time-series' of grouse harvesting records collected from 287 management units (moors) across Scotland, England and Wales were analysed to investigate the broad scale patterns of synchrony in these fluctuations. Estimation of the spatial autocorrelation of grouse population dynamics across moors indicates relatively high levels of synchrony between populations on adjacent moors, but that this synchrony declines sharply with increasing inter-moor distance. At distances of greater than 100  km, grouse population time-series exhibit only weakly positive cross-correlation coefficients. Twenty-eight geographical, environmental and other candidate variables were examined to construct a general linear model to explain variation in local synchrony. Grouse moor productivity (average size of shooting bag), distance from the Atlantic coast moving in a north-easterly direction, April and June temperatures, and June rainfall significantly increased the explanatory power of this model. An understanding of the processes underlying synchrony in red grouse population dynamics is a prerequisite to anticipating the effects of large-scale environmental change on regional patterns of grouse distribution and abundance.     

Spatially correlated environmental factors drive synchronisation in populations of the Dalmatian Pelican

Spatial synchrony in population dynamics has been documented recently across a range of taxa, and a number of hypotheses about the mechanisms driving spatial synchrony and the consequences of this phenomenon for the persistence of populations have emerged. Spatial environmental covariance is one of the principal factors influencing this synchrony on a large scale. However, most studies focus on population abundances, and little evidence exists on the spatial synchrony of demographic parameters. We used a 15-year dataset from two populations of a vulnerable bird species, the Dalmatian Pelican (Pelecanus crispus), to identify local and global environmental factors that cause population synchrony. We show that survival rates were temporally synchronised between the studied populations and that a large part (>50 % for both populations) of this covariation was driven by local environmental conditions. Several components of the North Atlantic Oscillation index were correlated with local climatic conditions, but not all of these components can be used as informative proxies for future variation in survival. We also present evidence that an individual's future survival can be strongly influenced by the conditions occurring during the early period of its life. Environmental factors such as water level and food availability had similar influences on breeding success and juvenile survival. Juvenile survival was lower during dry years and years of low food availability. This finding indicated that intra-specific competition may act as a limiting factor for species demography, especially in large populations. Estimating the strength of synchrony is important and should be considered in population and metapopulation analyses and in relationship to conservation measures.