热带气旋对浙江省农业影响的风险区划

依据自然灾害风险系统分析理论、热带气旋和农业经济资料,综合灾害风险指数法,在分析热带气旋对浙江省农业影响的致灾因子的危险性、孕灾环境的暴露性、承灾体的脆弱性和防灾减灾能力的基础上,应用加权综合法得到不同网格的综合风险度指数.基于GIS技术,开展了热带气旋对浙江省农业影响的风险区划.结果表明:致灾因子危险性的最大值分布在浙江东南沿海,孕灾环境暴露性的最大值分布在丽水山区,承灾体脆弱性的最高值分布在杭州、绍兴市区以及兰溪市,防灾减灾能力的最高值主要分布在杭州、宁波、温州市区及其周边地区.综合考虑各因子的综合风险度,热带气旋对浙江省农业影响的风险可分为高风险、次高风险、中等风险、次低风险和低风险5个等级.该研究可为浙江省农业结构调整和防灾减灾提供科学依据.     

基于GIS的四川盆周北部山区夏玉米农业气象灾害风险评估——以旺苍县为例

气象灾害是制约我国农业发展的主要因素之一,明确夏玉米农业气象灾害风险对于防灾减灾具有重要意义。本研究基于自然灾害风险理论,以四川盆地北部山区的典型区域(旺苍县)1981—2018年气象数据和玉米产量数据为基础,确定影响夏玉米生产的主要致灾因子,并结合孕灾环境敏感性及承灾体脆弱性构建夏玉米综合农业气象灾害风险评估模型,对四川盆地北部山区夏玉米生产过程中的农业气象灾害风险进行评估。结果表明: 研究期间,成熟期高温、花期暴雨、成熟期暴雨、灌浆期连阴雨和孕穗期干旱是影响研究区夏玉米生长发育的主要农业气象灾害。旺苍县夏玉米农业气象灾害综合风险分布大致呈西南-东北走向,高风险和较高风险区分布区域约占旺苍县总面积的二分之一;灾害风险高值区主要位于研究区西南部,基本与致灾因子危险性高值区一致;灾害风险低值区多集中在西部边缘,此区域亦为成熟期高温、成熟期暴雨、花期暴雨气象灾害的低风险区。     

基于GIS技术的吉林省生态灾害风险评价

基于自然灾害风险形成原理,综合考虑吉林省自然和社会经济现状,从致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的暴露性和脆弱性及防灾减灾能力4个方面选取指标,利用自然灾害风险指数法、加权综合评价法及层次分析法构建生态灾害风险评价模型,评价了各风险因子的贡献率,并运用GIS技术生成吉林省生态灾害风险区划图.评价结果对于正确认识吉林省的生态环境风险水平,有针对性地确定生态恢复与管理决策都有重要意义.     

安吉白茶精细化气象灾害风险分析与区划

气象灾害严重威胁茶产业高质量发展,开展气象灾害风险精细评价可为茶叶生产灾害精准防控提供科学依据。本文基于自然灾害风险理论、安吉县及周边7个国家气象站1971—2020年和安吉县23个区域自动气象站2012—2020年的逐日气象资料、15个乡镇农业社会经济统计资料,以及源于GF-2卫星遥感数据解译出的茶树种植现状分布图和DEM高程等多源信息,采用加权综合指数法、模糊层次分析法和GIS技术,对安吉白茶进行了精细化气象灾害风险分析与区划。结果表明：安吉白茶致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境暴露性的高值主要位于南部山区,承灾体脆弱性的高值集中于中部平原地区,防灾减灾能力的高值多位于中东部平原地区;综合考虑各因子的综合风险度,安吉白茶气象灾害风险可分为低风险、中风险和高风险3个等级;低风险区主要分布于安吉中北部平原区域,占安吉县地域面积的66.55%;中风险区主要分布于安吉西部、南部的中高海拔区域,占安吉县地域面积的30.54%;高风险区主要位于南部高海拔山区,占安吉县地域面积的3.01%;集成格点化的茶树种植现状,安吉县内61.21%的茶园分布在低风险区,38.17%的茶园分布在中风险区,0.62%的茶...     

黄淮海地区夏玉米生长季的干旱风险

干旱是对农业影响最大的农业气象灾害,进行干旱风险评估对于提升区域灾害风险管理和决策水平、减轻农业损失具有重要的指导意义.本文基于自然灾害风险理论,利用黄淮海夏玉米主产区69个站点的气象、夏玉米播种面积和产量数据,以及当地有效灌溉面积等数据,从灾害风险的危险性、脆弱性、暴露性和防灾减灾能力4个方面构建风险评估指标和模型,对黄淮海夏玉米主产区干旱灾害的风险进行评估分析.结果表明: 黄淮海地区夏玉米生长季(6—9月),干旱发生危险性最大的阶段主要是播种-出苗期和乳熟-成熟期,其中,河北中南部、河南西部和北部的危险性最大.经加权叠加脆弱性、暴露性和防灾减灾能力后,夏玉米干旱综合风险最大的地区主要分布在河南西部和西南部部分地区;其次是河南南部、河北沧州、邢台以及山东德州等地,属于次高风险区;风险低值区主要分布在山东南部、安徽北部和河南的信阳等地;其他地区属于中度风险区.     

基于灾害风险综合指标的陕西省农业干旱时空特征

随着气候变化,农业干旱直接威胁粮食安全.本文以陕西省为研究对象,基于自然灾害风险理论,综合考虑干旱灾害影响因素,从致灾因子的危险性、承灾体的暴露性、环境的脆弱性和地区的抗旱能力4个风险要素选取指标,采用层次分析法确定指标权重,构建自然灾害风险综合指标,分析2009—2013年陕西省农业干旱时空特征.结果表明: 研究期间,陕北地区农业干旱风险略呈下降趋势;陕南地区呈急剧升高态势,以商洛市为甚;关中地区基本稳定,以咸阳市最高、西安市最低.陕西省农业干旱风险大体呈现从南向北逐渐递增现象.     

台湾番石榴在福建引种的寒冻害风险分析与区划

基于灾害风险系统分析理论和灾害风险指数法,利用福建番石榴引种区历年气象资料、种植面积、产量及其他社会经济资料,分析了寒冻害对福建省番石榴影响致灾因子危险性、承险体脆弱性和防寒防冻能力;应用加权综合法得到不同单元的综合风险指数,并应用GIS技术对福建省番石榴引种区的寒冻害风险进行区划。结果表明:致灾因子危险性的高值区分布在龙岩市、漳州和泉州两市的西部山区、莆田市西北部、福州市西部和宁德市大部;番石榴脆弱性高值区分布在平和县;防寒防冻能力的低值区主要分布在东部的部分县市。考虑各因子的综合风险度,寒冻害对福建省番石榴引种的风险可分为轻度、中度、重度和严重4个风险等级,其中重度以上的风险主要分布在龙岩市、漳州市西部山区、泉州和莆田两市的高海拔山区、福州市内陆山区和宁德市大部。     

福建省台风灾害风险评估与区划

应用GIS技术,采用灾害风险指数法和加权综合评价法对福建省台风灾害风险进行评估及区划.结果表明:致灾因子危险性最大值分布在福建省东部沿海,承灾体的脆弱性最高值分布在东部的福州、厦门、泉州、漳州、莆田和宁德沿海以及西部的三明、龙岩、南平等地级市辖区,防灾减灾能力的分布比较分散,最高值主要分布在闽南的漳州、厦门、同安,闽中的泉州沿海以及莆田与福州沿海地区,另外还零散分布在福建西部的龙岩、三明、南平等地级市;综合考虑各因子指数的台风灾害风险度最高值(即风险度＞0.126)集中分布在福建省东部沿海的漳州、厦门、泉州、莆田、福州和宁德沿海地区.福建省台风灾害风险评估及区划可为福建省可持续发展和防灾减灾决策提供科学依据.     

四川盆区直播与移栽水稻旱灾风险比较

定量评价和比较四川盆区移栽水稻与直播水稻各发育阶段及全生育期干旱灾害风险,能为各区域水稻防旱减灾生产技术转型和推广提供科学依据.基于自然灾害风险理论和水稻干旱灾害风险形成机理,利用四川盆区1961—2017年的气象资料、水稻生产观测资料、农业统计资料和基础地理信息,对移栽和直播水稻全生育期和播种-拔节、拔节-孕穗、孕穗-齐穗、齐穗-成熟4个发育阶段干旱危险性进行评价和比较,对四川盆区水稻干旱灾害承灾体易损性、成灾环境敏感性和防灾减灾能力进行分析,从而构建四川盆区水稻干旱风险评价模型,并对评价结果进行区划.结果表明: 四川盆区水稻旱灾风险整体较高,两种播栽方式下均为中等风险区分布面积最广;两种播栽方式下干旱风险空间分布特征总体一致,表现为中东部高、西南部低,从东向西、从中部向周围递减的趋势.两种播栽方式下,水稻干旱危险性差异最大的时期出现在播种-拔节阶段,直播水稻在播种-拔节阶段的干旱危险性明显低于移栽水稻,且分布范围也较移栽水稻小;直播水稻干旱灾害的轻-低风险区分布较移栽水稻广,高风险区分布面积较移栽水稻略小.     

海南岛橡胶(Hevea brasiliensis)寒害风险区划

寒害是海南岛橡胶面临的主要气象灾害之一,开展橡胶寒害风险区划能够有效提高海南岛橡胶寒害防御能力。根据海南岛1964—2016年的气象资料和1988—2016年橡胶种植面积、产量、社会经济等数据,通过构建橡胶寒害指数和台风灾害指数,实现了橡胶寒害减产率的分离,基于风险形成的机理,选择橡胶寒害的致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体脆弱性和防灾减灾能力4个因子,建立海南岛橡胶寒害风险评估模型,计算橡胶寒害风险指数,并按自然断点法划分为5个风险等级。结果表明:海南岛橡胶寒害风险总体呈现西北部和中部较高,其他沿海地区较低的特征;西北部临高风险最高,其次为中部五指山地区;西南部东方、乐东沿海地区,以及北部海口、文昌风险最低;南部三亚和陵水无寒害风险。     

Pesticide Risk Perceptions,Knowledge, and Attitudes of Operators,Workers, and Residents: A Review of the Literature

The literature on the risk perceptions, knowledge levels, and attitudes of operators, workers, and residents in relation to non-dietary exposure to agricultural pesticides is reviewed. No literature was identified in relation to bystander exposure. Research has primarily been conducted on participants in developing countries and migrant workers in the United States. For operators and workers, illiteracy, poverty, and a perception that exposure to pesticides is an inevitable part of their work results in limited adoption of safety precautions while using and storing pesticides. As a result, risk communication activities aimed at operator and workers need to take account of the wider socioeconomic and cultural conditions in which workers and operators are working and living. There is less research focused on residents’ and bystanders’ perceptions, attitudes, and behaviors. The lack of European data in general, and residents’ and bystanders’ data in particular, represents a knowledge gap that is pertinent to emerging EU legislation requiring residents’ and bystanders’ inclusion in pesticide risk assessment. This review provides a comprehensive overview that can assist policy-makers, and risk communicators in the development of targeted training and awareness-raising material for operators, workers, bystanders, and residents. Areas for future research are suggested.     

Source apportionment and health risk assessment of heavy metals in agricultural soils in Xinglonggang,Northeastern China

Heavy metals in soil can affect human health through the exposure pathways of oral ingestion, dermal contact, and inhalation. In this study, to assess the health risk of heavy metals in the agricultural area of Xinglonggang, 52 soil samples were collected and tested to obtain the concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, V, and Zn in the soil. The enrichment factor indicated that the heavy metals of the agricultural soils were enriched, but the degree of enrichment was mild for all of the heavy metals. Coefficient analysis and principal component analysis indicated that V, Cr, Ni, and Pb were mainly from natural sources, As was from irrigation, Cu and Cd tended to be from chemical fertilizers and pesticides, and Zn was from mixed sources including irrigation, chemical fertilizers, and pesticides. A human-health risk assessment indicated that the residents in the study area face high risk from carcinogens and low risk from noncarcinogens; As and Cr are the major heavy metals affecting human health. This study provides a reference and a basis for formulating effective measures to prevent and control heavy metal enrichment in agricultural soils.     

Ecological risk assessment of metals in roadside agricultural soils: A modified approach

The threat of metal contamination of roadside agricultural soils poses severe ecological risks throughout the globe due to dual contamination by intensive agriculture and traffic-related activities. Therefore, the present study was conducted to assess ecological risks posed by metals (Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb, and Zn) in intensively cultivated roadside agricultural soils of Punjab, India. The results of the contamination assessment factors i.e. Contamination Factor (CF) and Enrichment Factor (EF) indicated that the studied soils were moderately to highly contaminated with metals. It was observed that the Modified Risk Index (MRI), which is based upon EF, indicated the ecological risks of metals more efficiently than the traditional Ecological Risk Index (RI), which is based upon CF in the present study. The MRI values indicated that the metals posed considerable to high risk in 67.86% samples as compared to only 7.14% samples based upon RI values. Thus, MRI can be considered as a more efficient risk indicator in comparison to RI. Spatial distribution maps of MRI indicated to higher metal contamination in inner urban parts of study area due to higher traffic and industrial activities.     

Organophosphate Pesticide Residues in Drinking Water from Artesian Wells and Health Risk Assessment of Agricultural Communities,Thailand

Organophosphate pesticide (OPPs) concentrations in artesian wells located in Thai agricultural and non-agricultural communities were studied during both wet and dry seasons. A total of 100 water samples were collected and subjects were asked to complete a survey. Gas chromatography flame photometric detector was used for OPP analysis. The average OPP concentration in the agricultural communities (0.085 and 0.418 μg/l in dry and wet season) was higher than in the non-agricultural communities (0.004 μg/l in both seasons). Ingestion of OPPs in contaminated water in the agricultural communities were estimated to be 0.187 and 0.919 μg/day during the dry and wet seasons, respectively, and 0.008 μg/day during both seasons in the non-agricultural communities. Agricultural communities were exposed to pesticide residues under the oral chronic reference dose. This study suggests that people in agricultural communities may be exposed to significantly greater levels of pesticides than non-agricultural populations during the dry and wet seasons (p < .001, .001).     

贵州兴仁煤矿区农田土壤重金属化学形态及风险评估

为了解煤矿区周边农田土壤重金属污染状况,采集了贵州省兴仁县某典型煤矿区农田土壤样品64份,测定了土样中重金属(As、Cr、Pb、Zn、Cd、Hg、Cu、Ni)总量及各形态含量,采用单因子指数法、潜在生态风险指数法(Hkanson法)和风险评估编码法(RAC)对研究区主要土壤利用类型(水稻土、薏米地、植烟土和菜园土)中重金属进行潜在生态风险评估和环境风险评价.结果表明： 不同利用类型土壤中重金属含量除Zn外,其他元素均明显超过贵州省背景值.单因子指数法评价结果表明,As、Pb、Hg和Cu污染较为严重,均属重度污染.形态分析表明,土壤中重金属形态构成差异明显,酸可提取态As、酸可提取态Cd所占比例较高;Cr、Zn、Cu、Ni主要以残渣态为主;Pb主要以可还原态和残渣态为主;而Hg的酸可提取态、可还原态、可氧化态均占有相当比例,三者之和大于55%.重金属可利用度大小顺序为:As(63.6%)>Hg(57.3%)>Cd(56.4%)>Pb(52.5%)>Cu(45.7%)>Zn(32.8%)>Ni(26.2%)>Cr(13.2%).潜在生态风险指数表明,各类型土壤潜在生态风险(RI)〖JP2〗为:菜园土(505.19)>薏米地(486.06)>植烟土(475.33)>水稻土(446.86),均处于较高风险.风险评估编码法结果显示,As在水稻土、薏米地及植烟土中均处于高风险,在菜园土中处于中等风险;Cd、Hg均处于中等风险,Cr、Pb、Zn、Cu和Ni均处于低风险.因此,对该区域农田土壤进行管控时应重点考虑As、Cd和Hg污染.     

再生(污)水灌溉生态风险与可持续利用

作为一个农业大国,水资源贫乏及地域分布不均匀造成了我国严重的农业用水危机。为缓解我国农业用水危机,污水灌溉及再生水灌溉已成为解决农业灌溉水源不足的一项重要措施。在总结污水灌溉及再生水灌溉生态风险的基础上,针对国内研究现状,分析了我国再生水灌溉利用的可行性。研究发现,再生水灌溉的污染风险远小于污水灌溉,且再生水灌溉还具有回用成本低、减少农作物生产成本等经济效益,以及减少污染物向水环境中排放、改善土壤质量等环境效益。与污水灌溉相比再生水在农业灌溉上具有较大的应用前景,应加大其推广与应用的力度。最后,根据国内外的研究现状,提出了一些再生水灌溉可持续管理措施及其安全利用的相关建议。     

Risk-Based Evaluation of Turkish Agricultural Strategies using Fuzzy AHP and Fuzzy ANP

In this article, we propose a model for selection of an agricultural strategy for Turkey by using fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and analytical network process (ANP) based on linguistic terms. Fuzzy AHP-based methodology will be discussed to tackle the different decision criteria such as risk factors, ecological structure, socioeconomic structure, and technological structure involved in the selection of an agricultural strategy for Turkey and ANP will represent an effective tool for providing a suitable solution for managers and government administrators of this case. The linguistic levels of comparisons produced by the experts for each comparison are tapped in the form of triangular fuzzy numbers in order to construct fuzzy pairwise comparison matrices. The implementation of the system is demonstrated by a problem having four stages of hierarchy that contains 4 criteria and 15 sub-criteria.