Monitoring of butterflies in semi-natural grasslands: diurnal variation and weather effects

The butterfly fauna was monitored in six semi-natural grasslands in southeastern Sweden. The aim was to evaluate monitoring criteria for wind, sunshine, temperature and time of day for butterfly species richness and abundances when using the line transect method. A total of 30,111 butterflies belonging to 46 species were recorded. Data from this study suggests somewhat stricter criteria for temperature and sunshine than stated in the widely used “Pollards walk”. A sharp decline in butterfly numbers were detected at temperatures below 19°C if the proportion of sunshine of the transect walk was below 80–85%. No effect of wind speed, up to five on the Beaufort scale, on observed numbers of species or individuals were found. Several butterfly species showed well-defined diurnal rythms of flight activity, and the results indicated that transect walks can be performed between −4.5 and +4 h from the time when the sun reached its highest point. The results of this study can be used to adjust general criteria in national monitoring and also for detailed regional and local monitoring where it may be important to adjust for diurnal rhythm and weather related bias.     

Monitoring butterfly abundance: beyond pollard walks

Most butterfly monitoring protocols rely on counts along transects (Pollard walks) to generate species abundance indices and track population trends. It is still too often ignored that a population count results from two processes: the biological process (true abundance) and the statistical process (our ability to properly quantify abundance). Because individual detectability tends to vary in space (e.g., among sites) and time (e.g., among years), it remains unclear whether index counts truly reflect population sizes and trends. This study compares capture-mark-recapture (absolute abundance) and count-index (relative abundance) monitoring methods in three species (Maculinea nausithous and Iolana iolas: Lycaenidae; Minois dryas: Satyridae) in contrasted habitat types. We demonstrate that intraspecific variability in individual detectability under standard monitoring conditions is probably the rule rather than the exception, which questions the reliability of count-based indices to estimate and compare specific population abundance. Our results suggest that the accuracy of count-based methods depends heavily on the ecology and behavior of the target species, as well as on the type of habitat in which surveys take place. Monitoring programs designed to assess the abundance and trends in butterfly populations should incorporate a measure of detectability. We discuss the relative advantages and inconveniences of current monitoring methods and analytical approaches with respect to the characteristics of the species under scrutiny and resources availability.     

Improving our science: the evolution of butterfly sampling and surveying methods over time

Butterflies are consistently the focus of conservation research because they contribute to ecosystem services, act as biological indicators, and are in decline worldwide. Land managers and researchers use many methods to measure butterfly populations, but this creates issues for standardization and production of comparative, rigorous data. To promote methods more appropriate for research-based conservation, we conducted a literature review focusing on the implementation and advancement of butterfly monitoring methods over time. We identified four main methods that are most frequently used in butterfly research and monitoring: (1) trapping and netting, (2) mark-recapture, (3) transects (Pollard walks), and (4) distance sampling. Although a progression of method development has occurred over time, all methods are still currently used in butterfly research, with trapping, netting, and mark-recapture used in 85% of studies. Over the last century, the amount of butterfly research has steadily increased, so it is vital to select methods that produce accurate, and comparable data. However, we found that method selection was not solely based on the type of data needed for accurate interpretation and extrapolation of results. Instead, land context, species abundance, and historically-used methods are driving method selection. As butterflies remain a high conservation priority, researchers must provide rigorous data that are necessary for creating effective conservation plans and policies by using a framework for method selection.     

Butterfly communities in South Australian urban reserves: Estimating abundance and diversity using the Pollard walk

Abstract Remnant habitats within and surrounding urbanized areas are becoming increasingly important for maintaining butterfly diversity. The ‘Pollard walk’ protocol has been used widely overseas to estimate and monitor species diversity and abundance of butterflies. However, there has been limited use of this technique in Australia. Here, we used the Pollard walk method to estimate the diversity of butterflies at three urban sites around Adelaide, South Australia: Belair National Park (BNP), Shepherds Hill Recreation Park (SHRP) and Brownhill Creek Recreation Park (BCRP). In total, 21 species of butterfly were detected across the three sites. Pollard walks detected butterfly species from five families, including rare and highly localized lycaenid and hesperiid species. The highest diversity of species was found at BCRP (16) followed by BNP (14) and SHRP (14). Multivariate analysis on the data revealed a distinct and temporally variable butterfly community at BNP when compared with the SHRP and BCRP. The results of this study show that the Pollard walk can be effectively used to distinguish communities and detect a wide variety of butterflies, including cryptic and rare species, within urban habitats of Adelaide.     

Monitoring the mission blue butterfly using immature stages

Monitoring of the Mission blue butterfly has been restricted to periodic counts of adults sighted during the flight season during transect walks. However, adult count data is a reliable index of population size only if the probability of detection is high and stable across varying ecological conditions. Determining these probabilities requires marking and capturing of a large number of individuals, which is harmful and difficult to implement for protected species. Therefore, we explored the potential of using immature stages (eggs, late-instar larvae and the feeding damage inflicted by larvae) as potential measures of population status for monitoring purposes. For each of these measures we examined its correlation with adult counts, its detection probability, and its repeatability. We found that immature stages and feeding damage are highly correlated with adult counts, are highly repeatable, and have detection probabilities that exceed estimates of the probability of detecting Mission blue adults. We conclude that late instar larval counts and foliar feeding damage are superior to adults as measures of population status for population monitoring. Furthermore, if sighting-resighting based counts of immatures or feeding damage are made on the same set of host plants on successive days, then estimates of abundance and its standard error adjusted for detection probabilities can be obtained.     

Robustness and uncertainty in estimates of butterfly abundance from transect counts

Many butterfly populations are monitored by counting the number of butterflies observed while walking transects during the butterfly’s flight season. Methods for estimating population abundance from these transect counts are appealing because they allow rare populations to be monitored without capture–recapture studies that could harm fragile individuals. An increasingly popular method for estimating abundance from transect counts relies on strong assumptions about the counting process and the processes that govern butterfly population dynamics. Here, we study the statistical performance of this method when underlying model assumptions are violated. We find that estimates of population size are robust to departures from underlying model assumptions, but that the uncertainty in these estimates (i.e., confidence intervals) is substantially underestimated. Alternative bootstrap and Bayesian methods provide better measures of the uncertainty in estimated population size, but are conditional upon knowledge of butterfly detectability. Because of these requirements, a mixed approach that combines data from small capture–recapture studies with transect counts strikes the best balance between accurate monitoring and minimal injury to individuals. Our study is motivated by monitoring studies for St. Francis satyr (Neonympha mitchelli francisci), a rare and relatively immobile butterfly occurring only in the sandhills region of south-central North Carolina, USA.     

Analysis of Transect Counts to Monitor Population Size in Endangered Insects The Case of the El Segundo Blue Butterfly, Euphilotes Bernardino Allyni

Before, during and after habitat restoration from 1984 to 1994, we monitored population size of the federally listed endangered El Segundo blue butterfly, Euphilotes bernardino allyni (Shields). In the subsequent formalization of a recovery plan for the species, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service established several recovery criteria, including a requirement of a scientifically credible monitoring plan to track population size annually. To avoid detrimental effects of the extensively used mark-release-recapture method on the delicate El Segundo blue butterfly, which would conflict with protection afforded by the Endangered Species Act, we chose instead to perform transect counts to estimate relative population size. Herein, we analyze the results of our transect counts by three different methods, developed by or modified from Pollard, Watt et al. and Zonneveld. Qualitatively, the three methods, which have different assumptions, produced similar results when applied to the same data. Zonneveld's model estimates death rate in addition to an index of population size, thus providing more information than the other two methods. The El Segundo blue butterfly's sedentary nature and the close relationship of its adult and early stages to one foodplant permits extrapolation of the index of population size based on transect counts, to an estimate of actual population size. Our data document butterfly numbers increasing from 1984 to 1989, but then declining until the end of our observations in 1994. Based on analysis of our El Segundo blue butterfly data, we propose an implementation of a scientifically credible monitoring plan.     

Insights into the feeding ecology of the Seychelles Black Parrot Coracopsis barklyi using two monitoring approaches

Feeding ecology is an important factor for the survival of a species and knowledge of its parameters is a prerequisite for successful conservation work. In this study we describe the feeding ecology of the endemic Seychelles Black Parrot Coracopsis barklyi on Praslin, Seychelles, the only island on which this parrot is resident. We compared two methods to evaluate feeding choices: incidental observations and feeding walks on 25 transects in all habitat types. Black parrots fed on 46 different species, bringing the total number of known food plants to 53 species. They predominantly consumed endemic and native species (58% of observed feeding bouts), mainly their fruit pulp (in 68% of feeding bouts), followed by buds (15%) and seeds (37%) with occasional observations of leaves, bark and scale insects. The incidental method rendered many more observed bouts than the transect approach and the ratios of consumed species differed between methods but the transect results are regarded as more representative. The incidental method is not suitable for quantitative conclusions but complements the transect method, providing information about rarely occurring feeding events.     

Improving Aquatic Warbler Population Assessments by Accounting for Imperfect Detection

Monitoring programs designed to assess changes in population size over time need to account for imperfect detection and provide estimates of precision around annual abundance estimates. Especially for species dependent on conservation management, robust monitoring is essential to evaluate the effectiveness of management. Many bird species of temperate grasslands depend on specific conservation management to maintain suitable breeding habitat. One such species is the Aquatic Warbler (Acrocephalus paludicola), which breeds in open fen mires in Central Europe. Aquatic Warbler populations have so far been assessed using a complete survey that aims to enumerate all singing males over a large area. Because this approach provides no estimate of precision and does not account for observation error, detecting moderate population changes is challenging. From 2011 to 2013 we trialled a new line transect sampling monitoring design in the Biebrza valley, Poland, to estimate abundance of singing male Aquatic Warblers. We surveyed Aquatic Warblers repeatedly along 50 randomly placed 1-km transects, and used binomial mixture models to estimate abundances per transect. The repeated line transect sampling required 150 observer days, and thus less effort than the traditional ‘full count’ approach (175 observer days). Aquatic Warbler abundance was highest at intermediate water levels, and detection probability varied between years and was influenced by vegetation height. A power analysis indicated that our line transect sampling design had a power of 68% to detect a 20% population change over 10 years, whereas raw count data had a 9% power to detect the same trend. Thus, by accounting for imperfect detection we increased the power to detect population changes. We recommend to adopt the repeated line transect sampling approach for monitoring Aquatic Warblers in Poland and in other important breeding areas to monitor changes in population size and the effects of habitat management.     

Rendiconti Delle Sedute E Brevi Comunicazioni

Abstract

Totally, 26 xerohalophytic species belonging to the associations Cakilo-Xanthietum italici and Echinophoro-Elymetum farcti were registered at the Velika pla?a beach (Montenegro); they were distributed following the spatial succession common in this type of habitat. Three transects of different terrain morphology (positioned perpendicularly to the shoreline) were surveyed to establish if there were any differences in the floristic composition and species distribution due to the configuration discrepancy. Moreover, each transect was divided into zones: The first zone from 0 to 30 m inland, the second zone from 30 m to 60 m inland, and the third zone from 60 m to the end of beach (75–115 m, depending on transect length). The floristic composition was relatively uniform in the different transects. However, the number of individuals per species differed significantly among these transects. An analysis of the qualitative composition of transects/zones showed high differences between zones within transects I and II, whereas species composition of zones within transect III was mostly similar. When analyzing the quantitative composition of species, a positive correlation between the distance from the shoreline and the number of individuals per species in transects I and II was registered for most analyzed species (Spearman correlation, p < 0.001). This indicates that terrain configuration affected the ability of present species to become established and propagate.     

What can sown wildflower strips contribute to butterfly conservation?: an example from a Swiss lowland agricultural landscape

The objective of this study was to compare butterfly abundances and diversity between wildflower strips and extensively used meadows to identify which butterfly species can be supported by establishing wildflower strips. Butterflies were recorded along transects during one season in twenty-five sown wildflower strips and eleven extensively used meadows in a Swiss lowland agricultural landscape (600 ha). In total 1,669 butterflies of 25 species were observed (25 in the strips, 18 in meadows). This can be related to 38 species recorded in the region (lowland part of Kanton Fribourg) within the Swiss Biodiversity Monitoring Programme. In wildflower strips the number of butterflies per transect meter was significantly higher than in the meadows, but there was no significant difference in species richness. Butterfly communities, though, were quite different between the two habitat types. Habitat type, abundances of flowering plants and presence of forest within 50 m were identified as factors influencing butterfly species richness. Butterfly abundances were affected by habitat type and abundance of flowering plants. In wildflower strips, 65% of all flower visits by butterflies were observed on Origanum. It can be concluded that sown wildflower strips can support a substantial part of a regions species pool. This is mostly true for common species, but can apply to rare species when, for example, larval food plant requirements are met.     

Optimal schedule for monitoring a plant incursion when detection and treatment success vary over time

Management of an invasive plant species can be viewed as two separate and successive processes. The first, survey, aims to find infested areas and remove individuals. The second, monitoring, consists of repeated visits to these areas in order to prevent possible re-emergence. As detection probability may vary over time, the timing and number of monitoring visits can dramatically impact monitoring efficacy. We explore the optimal timing and number of monitoring visits, by focusing on one infested site. Our decision-analysis framework defines an optimal monitoring schedule which accounts for a time-dependent probability of detection, based on the presence/absence of a flower. We use this framework to investigate the optimal monitoring schedule for Hieracium aurantiacum, an invasive species in the Australian Alps and many other countries. We also perform a sensitivity analysis to draw more general conclusions. For H. aurantiacum eight monitoring visits (compared to 12 visits in the current program) are sufficient to obtain a 99% monitoring efficacy. When four or fewer visits to a site are allowed, it is optimal to visit during the high season, when the weed is likely to initiate flowering. Any extra visits should be scheduled in the early season, before the plants flower. The sensitivity analysis shows that increasing the detection probability early in the season has a greater impact than increasing it late in the season. An effective treatment method increases the value of site visits late in the season, when the detection probability is higher. Our decision-analysis framework can assist invasive species managers to reduce or reallocate management resources by determining the minimum number of monitoring visits required to satisfy an acceptable risk of re-emergence.     

An Evaluation of Survey Methods for Estimating Northern Bobwhite Abundance in Southern Texas

Abstract: Distance sampling has been identified as a reliable and well-suited method for estimating northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) density. However, distance sampling using walked transects requires intense sampling to obtain precise estimates, thus making the technique impractical for large acreages. Researchers have addressed this limitation by either resorting to the use of indices (e.g., morning covey-call surveys) or incorporating the use of aerial surveys with distance sampling. Both approaches remain relatively untested. Our objectives were to 1) compare density estimates among morning covey-call surveys, helicopter transects, and walked transects; 2) test a critical assumption of distance sampling pertinent to helicopter surveys (i.e., all objects on line are detected); and 3) evaluate the underlying premise of morning covey-call surveys (i.e., that the no. of calling coveys correlates with bobwhite density). Our study was conducted on 3 study sites in Brooks County, Texas, USA, during October to December, 2001 to 2005. Comparisons between walked transects and morning covey-call surveys involved the entire 5-year data set, whereas helicopter transects involved only the latter 2 years. Density estimates obtained from helicopter transects were similar to walked transect estimates for both years. We documented a detection probability on the helicopter transect line of 70 ± 10.2% (% ± SE; n = 20 coveys). Morning covey-call surveys yielded similar density estimates to walked transect estimates during only 2 of 5 years, when walked transect estimates were the least accurate and precise. We detected a positive relationship (R² = 0.51; 95% CI for slope: 29.5–53.1; n = 63 observations) between covey density and number of coveys heard calling. We conclude that helicopter transects appear to be a viable alternative to walked transects for estimating density of bobwhites. Morning covey-call surveys appear to be a poor method to estimate absolute abundance and to depict general population trajectories.     

Distance models as a tool for modelling detection probability and density of native bumblebees

Effective monitoring of native bee populations requires accurate estimates of population size and relative abundance among habitats. Current bee survey methods, such as netting or pan trapping, may be adequate for a variety of study objectives but are limited by a failure to account for imperfect detection. Biases due to imperfect detection could result in inaccurate abundance estimates or erroneous insights about the response of bees to different environments. To gauge the potential biases of currently employed survey methods, we compared abundance estimates of bumblebees (Bombus spp.) derived from hierarchical distance sampling models (HDS) to bumblebee counts collected from fixed‐area net surveys (“net counts”) and fixed‐width transect counts (“transect counts”) at 47 early‐successional forest patches in Pennsylvania. Our HDS models indicated that detection probabilities of Bombus spp. were imperfect and varied with survey‐ and site‐covariates. Despite being conspicuous, Bombus spp. were not reliably detected beyond 5 m. Habitat associations of Bombus spp. density were similar across methods, but the strength of association with shrub cover differed between HDS and net counts. Additionally, net counts suggested sites with more grass hosted higher Bombus spp. densities whereas HDS suggested that grass cover was associated with higher detection probability but not Bombus spp. density. Density estimates generated from net counts and transect counts were 80%–89% lower than estimates generated from distance sampling. Our findings suggest that distance modelling provides a reliable method to assess Bombus spp. density and habitat associations, while accounting for imperfect detection caused by distance from observer, vegetation structure, and survey covariates. However, detection/non‐detection data collected via point‐counts, line‐transects and distance sampling for Bombus spp. are unlikely to yield species‐specific density estimates unless individuals can be identified by sight, without capture. Our results will be useful for informing the design of monitoring programs for Bombus spp. and other pollinators.     

The differences of butterfly (Lepidoptera, Papilionoidea) communities in habitats with various degrees of disturbance and altitudes in tropical forests of Vietnam

A survey was conducted on the species composition, richness and abundance of Papilionoidea (excluding Lycaenidae) butterfly fauna in habitats with various degrees of disturbance and altitudes in tropical forests at Tam Dao National Park, northern Vietnam in 2001. The transect method was used to collect data in the survey. Six transects representing different habitat types at two sites, one site located at a low elevation of 200–250 m a.s.l., and the other located at a high elevation of 950–1000 m a.s.l., were chosen: three transects for each site, with a length of 500 m for each transect. A total of 3594 individuals of 127 species in 240 sets of data were recorded from various habitats. The differences in butterfly composition, species richness, abundance and diversity in different habitat types and altitudes were analyzed. The results showed significant differences of butterfly diversity among the different habitat types and between the low and high altitude sites. The butterfly diversity, species richness and species abundance in the low elevation habitats were higher than in the high elevation habitats. The highest diversity of butterflies occurred in the mixed habitats of agriculture, scrub and clearing lands of high disturbance. However, butterflies most important for conservation are associated with undisturbed or moderately disturbed forests only.     

Torch-light Transect Surveys for Moths

The use of light traps in sampling moth populations is an established technique used by entomologists and ecologists. However, trap data partly reflect the variable attractiveness of UV light to different species of moth. There are also potential problems of the practicality and expense of running traps in certain locations.An alternative method of recording moth populations is developed, using a modification of the transect count technique used for butterflies (Pollard and Yates, 1993) and recently applied to moths (Spalding, 1997). During transects, moths were observed by torch-light in a 5 by 5 m box, before the recorder walked on for 10 paces, and recorded moths in the next 5 m box. The transect approach was tested in the field, alongside traditional light trap and sugar methods.Transects recorded moth species for relatively little effort, produced repeatable measures of relative density, and provided habitat-specific data. This approach is likely to provide a valuable addition to light trapping in biodiversity inventories, species surveys, and in monitoring the effects of habitat management for conservation.     

Butterfly species richness in the north-west Mediterranean Basin: the role of natural and human-induced factors

Aim We developed a model enabling us to evaluate the contribution of both natural and human‐related factors to butterfly species richness in Catalonia, a Mediterranean area that harbours one of the most diverse butterfly faunas in Europe. Location The study was carried out in Catalonia (north‐east Iberian Peninsula), a region of 31,930 km² lying between the Pyrenees, the Ebro depression and the Mediterranean sea. Methods Data from the Catalan Butterfly Monitoring Scheme were used to assess butterfly species richness from 55 transects spread all over the region. Three groups of environmental variables likely to affect the presence of butterfly species were calculated, above all from geographic information system data: (1) climatology and topography, (2) vegetation structure and (3) human disturbance. Because climatic and topographic variables are expected to be strongly correlated, we first performed a principal component analysis (PCA) to create a summarizing factor that would account for most of the variance within this set of variables. Subsequently, a backward stepwise multiple regression was performed in order to assess the effects of environmental factors on butterfly species richness. Results A total of 131 species were detected in the monitoring transects, representing 75.7% of the butterfly fauna known from Catalonia. Mean species richness per transect and per year was 41.4, although values varied greatly among sites (range: 14–76.8). The final regression model explained more than 80% of the total variance, which indicated a strong association between butterfly species richness and the studied environmental factors. The model revealed the very important contribution of climatic and topographic variables, which were combined into a single factor in the PCA. In contrast to what has been found in other, more northerly countries, species richness was negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with rainfall, except for extreme cold and wet conditions. This may be a consequence of the predictably adverse effects of the Mediterranean summer drought on herbivorous insects, and the fact that the limits of distribution of many butterflies correlate well with climatic variables. Human disturbance (defined as the proportion of urban and agricultural landscape cover in buffer areas of 5 km around the transect sites) was the second most important predictor for species richness. We found that a significant decrease in species numbers was associated with an increase in human pressure, a finding that indicates that not only building development, but also modern‐day agricultural practices are detrimental to the conservation of Mediterranean butterflies. Surprisingly, vegetation variables had an almost negligible effect on butterfly species richness. Main conclusions Our findings strongly indicate that the current motors of global change will have a negative effect on Mediterranean butterfly assemblages. First, changes in land‐use are transforming and fragmenting the landscape into an inhospitable and less permeable matrix for butterflies. Secondly, the negative correlation between species richness and temperature will lead to a predictable loss of diversity over the coming years, as predicted in the most plausible scenarios of climate change. Considering the high butterfly richness characterizing the Mediterranean Basin, this future trend will pose a serious threat to biodiversity.     

Comparison of survey methods for wintering grassland birds

ABSTRACT Although investigators have evaluated the efficacy of survey methods for assessing densities of breeding birds, few comparisons have been made of survey methods for wintering birds, especially in grasslands. In winter, social behavior and spatial distributions often differ from those in the breeding season. We evaluated the degree of correspondence between density estimates based on different survey methods. Surveys were conducted during two winters (2001–2002 and 2002–2003) on 16 grassland sites in southwestern Oklahoma. Line‐transect (using a detection function to account for birds present but not detected) and area‐search (where density was based on the total count within a given area) methods were employed. Observations on line transects were also analyzed as strip transects, where density was based on total count within a given strip width and no detection function was used. Savannah Sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis), LeConte's Sparrows (Ammodramus leconteii), Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia), Smith's Longspurs (Calcarius pictus), Chestnut‐collared Longspurs (C. ornatus), and Eastern Meadowlarks (Sturnella magna) were sufficiently abundant to allow comparison. Area‐search density estimates tended to be higher than line‐transect estimates for Savannah Sparrows, Song Sparrows, and Eastern Meadowlarks, suggesting that some individuals initially located close to the transect line were not detected on line transects. The area‐search and line‐transect methods gave similar density estimates for Chestnut‐collared and Smith's longspurs. Area‐search estimates of Eastern Meadowlarks were significantly higher in the second year of the study only. For this species, area‐search estimates did not differ from those of strip transects covering an equal area, so the reason for the differing meadowlark estimates is not clear. Higher density estimates using the area‐search method likely resulted from: (1) birds that might escape detection by hiding were more likely detected (flushed) during area searches because of the repeated passes through the area, and (2) birds close to the line in line transects escape detection by hiding, biasing those estimates low. We also evaluated the correspondence of density rankings for the six species as determined by the different survey methods and for the same species across survey sites. Correlations among the six species of the area‐search results with those of line transects and strip transects generally were high, increasing in 2002–2003 when densities of birds were greater. All three methods provided similar density rankings among species. Density rankings within species across sites for the four non‐longspur species generally were concordant for the three methods, suggesting that any of them will adequately reflect among‐site differences, especially when densities vary greatly across sites. Further research is needed to determine the extent to which grassland birds are missed on line transects. We suggest that workers using line transects to study these species give careful consideration and make additional efforts to satisfy the distance‐sampling assumption that all birds on or near the line are detected. If density is measured as a total count in a fixed area, we recommend that observers pass within <10 m of all points in the area.     

How accurate are single site transect data for monitoring butterfly trends? Spatial and temporal issues identified in monitoring Lasiommata megera

Multiple transect counts following Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (UKBMS) guidelines and Jolly–Seber estimates of population size were used to monitor the abundance of second generation Lasiommata megera on a single site in southern England. The two methods resulted in different patterns of emergence being detected. The proportion of the population (estimated by Jolly–Seber) recorded with transect counts depended on the time of day and weather with afternoon transect counts best recording the trend in abundance over the flight period, but even then counts recorded a variable fraction of the population (6.2–51.3%). Increasing the frequency with which transect counts are carried out per week reduced variation and increased the fit of transect counts to Jolly–Seber generated population estimates. However, indices of abundance generated from randomly selected transect counts for L. megera within sampling weeks varied 4-fold and indices for other butterfly species were also highly variable. For L. megera, transect count variability is attributed to non-representative placement of the transect route and changes in the behaviour and spatial distribution in relation to population size and season. We suggest that transect counts need to be fully validated before the data are used to monitor changes of butterfly populations at individual sites.     

A systematic re-sampling approach to assess the probability of detecting otters Lutra lutra using spraint surveys on small lowland rivers

Assessing and monitoring populations of elusive species frequently rely on the identification of indirect signs such as faeces. The absence of signs does not necessarily denote the absence of a species, thus, the ability to determine the presence/absence is susceptible to false negative results. The probability of detection is central to the interpretation and utility of data from field sign surveys. A low probability of detection may introduce considerable error into distribution patterns, resulting in inaccurate ecological conclusions.We used a systematic resampling approach, based on sequential spatial replication of spraint surveys, to investigate the probability of detecting Eurasian otters (Lutra lutra L.) with different survey designs. This included the standard otter transect survey methodology, which is widely used in conservation and scientific studies. In particular, we focus on the impact of applying broad scale population assessment techniques at smaller spatial scales. Fortnightly catchment-level otter surveys were undertaken on four lowland rivers in South Wales, over a period of two years. GIS was used to construct binary vectors for each survey, denoting the presence (1) or absence (0) of otters at each 50 m section of river. Vectors from all study rivers were pooled and resampled to test the different survey designs. The mean probability of detecting otters based on the standard protocol of a single 600 m transect survey was very low (0.26 ± 0.01 SE). The best way of obtaining a detection probability of 0.8 was to undertake three repeat surveys at two separate sites, using a transect of 800–1000 m.We demonstrate how sequentially collected spatial data can be analysed to determine the reliability of field sign surveys. Increasing the number of visits and study sites was a more efficient means of improving detection power than increasing transect length alone. The study emphasises the importance of determining detection probabilities and designing field sign surveys according to study scale and objectives. Our findings question the value of survey designs that aim to provide an instantaneous assessment of species presence/absence.