Influences of 20th‐century warming at the upper tree line contingent on local‐scale interactions: evidence from a latitudinal gradient in the Rocky Mountains,USA

Aims Twentieth‐century climate, the spatial pattern of tree establishment and positive feedback influence upper tree line ecotones. Here, I investigate how these factors interact to gain a more holistic understanding of how broad‐scale abiotic and local‐scale site conditions regulate tree establishment within upper tree line ecotones. Location A latitudinal gradient (c. 35–45° N) in the US Rocky Mountains. Study sites (n= 22) were located in the Bighorn (BH), Medicine Bow (MB), Front Range (FR) and Sangre de Cristo (SDC) mountain ranges. Methods Dendroecological techniques were used to reconstruct tree establishment dates that were compared with 20th‐century climate data using correlation and regime shift analyses. Spatial patterns of tree establishment were analysed by Ripley's K and used to determine local‐scale interactions capable of ameliorating broad‐scale climate inputs through positive feedback. Results Significant correlations (P < 0.01) between tree establishment and climate were confined to the FR, where a positive correlation was found with summer (June–August) and cool season (November–April) temperature range (T_max?T_min). These trees were almost exclusively situated in a random spatial pattern. Similar patterns exist in the BH, yet their establishment was contingent on the availability of local shelter in the lee of boulders. Trees in the MB and SDC were primarily clustered in space and had no significant correlations with climate. Considerable lag times exist between regime shift changes in climate towards more favourable growing conditions and corresponding shifts in tree establishment in all mountain ranges except the FR, where synchronous shifts occurred in the early 1950s. Main conclusions These results suggest that the influence of broad‐scale climate on upper tree line dynamics is contingent on the local‐scale spatial patterns of tree establishment and related influences of positive feedback. This research has important implications for understanding how vegetation communities will respond to global climate change.     

A simulation test of the resource‐averaging hypothesis of ecotone formation

Abstract. The pattern at an ecotone may indicate the processes that created that ecotone. Such patterns may in turn affect the responses of ecotones to environmental change. The resource averaging hypothesis suggests a process for the development of tree lines that should produce patterns that are modifications of patterns in soil resources. A computer simulation model that embodies the resource averaging hypothesis is used to generate tree‐line patterns. Different spatial patterns in the variation of soil resources are represented in the model. The patterns of tree line computed by the simulation closely correspond to the patterns of soil resources that were input. These patterns are compared to patterns recorded in the field and by aerial photography. For the patterns of soil resources observed at some alpine tree lines, the model cannot produce the kinds of patterns of vegetation observed. Resource averaging alone cannot be an explanation of such tree lines.     

Spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of high‐elevation forest stands in southern Siberia

Aim To evaluate the hypothesis that topographic features of high‐elevation mountain environments govern spatial distribution and climate‐driven dynamics of the forest. Location Upper mountain forest stands (elevation range 1800–2600 m) in the mountains of southern Siberia. Methods Archive maps, satellite and on‐ground data from1960 to 2002 were used. Data were normalized to avoid bias caused by uneven distribution of topographic features (elevation, azimuth and slope steepness) within the analysed area. Spatial distribution of forest stands was analysed with respect to topography based on a digital elevation model (DEM). Results Spatial patterns in mountain forests are anisotropic with respect to azimuth, slope steepness and elevation. At a given elevation, the majority of forests occupied slopes with greater than mean slope values. As the elevation increased, forests shifted to steeper slopes. The orientation of forest azimuth distribution changed clockwise with increase in elevation (the total shift was 120°), indicating a combined effect of wind and water stress on the observed forest patterns. Warming caused changes in the forest distribution patterns during the last four decades. The area of closed forests increased 1.5 times, which was attributed to increased stand density and tree migration. The migration rate was 1.5 ± 0.9 m year^–1, causing a mean forest line shift of 63 ± 37 m. Along with upward migration, downward tree migration onto hill slopes was observed. Changes in tree morphology were also noted as widespread transformation of the prostrate forms of Siberian pine and larch into erect forms. Main conclusions The spatial pattern of upper mountain forests as well as the response of forests to warming strongly depends on topographic relief features (elevation, azimuth and slope steepness). With elevation increase (and thus a harsher environment) forests shifted to steep wind‐protected slopes. A considerable increase in the stand area and increased elevation of the upper forest line was observed coincident with the climate warming that was observed. Warming promotes migration of trees to areas that are less protected from winter desiccation and snow abrasion (i.e. areas with lower values of slope steepness). Climate‐induced forest response has significantly modified the spatial patterns of high‐elevation forests in southern Siberia during the last four decades, as well as tree morphology.     

Scale matters: fire–vegetation feedbacks are needed to explain tropical tree cover at the local scale

At a broad (regional to global) spatial scale, tropical vegetation is controlled by climate; at the local scale, it is believed to be determined by interactions between disturbance, vegetation and local conditions (soil and topography) through feedback processes. It has recently been suggested that strong fire–vegetation feedback processes may not be needed to explain tree‐cover patterns in tropical ecosystems and that climate–fire determinism is an alternative possibility. This conclusion was based on the fact that it is possible to reproduce observed patterns in tropical regions (e.g. a trimodal frequency distribution of tree cover) using a simple model that does not explicitly incorporate fire–vegetation feedback processes. We argue that these two mechanisms (feedbacks versus fire–climate control) operate at different spatial and temporal scales; it is not possible to evaluate the role of a process acting at fine scales (e.g. fire–vegetation feedbacks) using a model designed to reproduce regional‐scale pattern (scale mismatch). While the distributions of forest and savannas are partially determined by climate, many studies are providing evidence that the most parsimonious explanation for their environmental overlaps is the existence of feedback processes. Climate is unlikely to be an alternative to feedback processes; rather, climate and fire–vegetation feedbacks are complementary processes at different spatial and temporal scales.     

聚果榕小蜂繁殖性雌蜂的时空分布格局

运用扩散系数、聚集指数、平均拥挤度、聚块性指数、Green指数和负二项参数等指标比较分析了聚果榕小蜂Ceratosolenfusciceps繁殖性雌蜂的时空分布格局 ,用t-检验拟合了扩散系数测定时分布格局偏离泊松分布的显著性。结果显示 ,聚果榕小蜂繁殖性雌蜂在不同季节阶段的空间分布格局皆为聚集分布 ,不同季节时期之间有较大差异 ,反映了该种繁殖性雌蜂的活动存在比较明显的季节波动。格局强度指标的测度表明 ,聚集分布格局在雨季和雾凉季表现更强且尤以雨季为甚。繁殖性雌蜂的聚集分布格局决定了整个榕小蜂种群分布格局的聚集性 ,还影响着榕树的雌雄性别功能分配格局 ,从而在更深层次上作用于榕小蜂和榕树的互惠共生     

Do spatial effects play a role in the spatial distribution of desert‐dwelling Acacia raddiana?

Abstract. We investigated the spatial pattern of A. raddiana in the Negev desert of Israel in order to gain insights into the factors and processes driving the dynamics of this species. Using a scale‐dependent measure, the ring statistic, we analysed both patterns observed in the field and time series of spatial tree distributions produced by a simulation model. In the field, random spacing was the predominant pattern observed. However seedlings were clumped on small scales. We ran the model under two contrasting scenarios representing hypotheses that explain the clumping of seedlings and the random distribution of trees. One hypothesis is that there is spatial heterogeneity in seed distribution, germination and seedling mortality, but that these heterogeneities are not correlated with each other in space. The second hypothesis assumes a correlation between these heterogeneities leading to areas suitable for establishment. However, the suitability of the sites is temporally variable. Furthermore, the second hypothesis assumes density‐dependent tree mortality due to competition. Both hypotheses lead to spatial distributions that are in qualitative agreement with the patterns observed in the field. Therefore, the classical view that a clumped seedling distribution and a random pattern of older trees is due to clumped regeneration and density‐dependent mortality may not hold for Acacia trees in the Negev.     

Spatial autocorrelation and dispersal in mistletoes: field and simulation results

The infections of two species of mistletoes in Baja California, Mexico were investigated for spatial patterns of abundance, and for an effect of the dispersal patterns of mistletoe seeds on these spatial patterns. Mistletoe distributions were mapped and the dispersal of mistletoe seeds was observed. Most mistletoes seeds were dispersed locally to the parent tree or to nearby trees. While mistletoe distributions were highly clumped at the level of the individual tree, no spatial pattern was found above the scale of the individual tree. Infected trees were no more clumped than the overall host population, and infected trees had no more mistletoes on nearby surrounding trees than did uninfected trees. Trees showed no spatial autocorrelation in the number of mistletoes they supported. Simulations using a spatially explicit simulation model with local dispersal and stochasticity in seed dispersal, host mortality, and mistletoe mortality were used to interpret the field results. Simulation results suggest that dispersal patterns affect the overall level of variance in the number of mistletoes per tree but do not lead to spatial patterns in abundance above the scale of the tree. Thus, both simulation and field systems give the surprising result that local dispersal does not lead to spatial autocorrelation in the numbers of mistletoes per tree.Abbreviations AI = Arroyo Inspiracion - VSR = Valle San Rafael     

Tipping points in tropical tree cover: linking theory to data

It has recently been found that the frequency distribution of remotely sensed tree cover in the tropics has three distinct modes, which seem to correspond to forest, savanna, and treeless states. This pattern has been suggested to imply that these states represent alternative attractors, and that the response of these systems to climate change would be characterized by critical transitions and hysteresis. Here, we show how this inference is contingent upon mechanisms at play. We present a simple dynamical model that can generate three alternative tree cover states (forest, savanna, and a treeless state), based on known mechanisms, and use this model to simulate patterns of tree cover under different scenarios. We use these synthetic data to show that the hysteresis inferred from remotely sensed tree cover patterns will be inflated by spatial heterogeneity of environmental conditions. On the other hand, we show that the hysteresis inferred from satellite data may actually underestimate real hysteresis in response to climate change if there exists a positive feedback between regional tree cover and precipitation. Our results also indicate that such positive feedback between vegetation and climate should cause direct shifts between forest and a treeless state (rather than through an intermediate savanna state) to become more likely. Finally, we show how directionality of historical change in conditions may bias the observed relationship between tree cover and environmental conditions.     

Spatial distributions of tree species in a subtropical forest of China

The spatial dispersion of individuals in a species is an important pattern that is controlled by many mechanisms. In this study we analyzed spatial distributions of tree species in a large-scale (20 ha) stem-mapping plot in a species-rich subtropical forest of China. O-ring statistic was used to measure spatial patterns of species with abundance >10. Ω_0–10, the mean conspecific density within 10 m of a tree, was used as a measure of the intensity of aggregation of a species. Our results showed: (1) aggregated distribution was the dominant pattern in the plot. The percentage of aggregated species decreased with increased spatial scale. (2) The percentages of significantly aggregated species decreased from abundant to intermediate and to rare species. Rare species was more strongly aggregated than common species. Aggregation was weaker in larger diameter classes. (3) Seed traits determined the spatial patterns of trees. Seed dispersal mode can influence spatial patterns of species, with species dispersed by both modes being less clumped than species dispersed by animal or wind, respectively. Considering these results, we concluded that seed dispersal limitation, self-thinning and habitat heterogeneity primarily contributed to spatial patterns and species coexistence in the forest.     

The combined effects of exogenous and endogenous variability on the spatial distribution of ant communities in a forested ecosystem (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

Spatial patterns observed in ecosystems have traditionally been attributed to exogenous processes. Recently, ecologists have found that endogenous processes also have the potential to create spatial patterns. Yet, relatively few studies have attempted to examine the combined effects of exogenous and endogenous processes on the distribution of organisms across spatial and temporal scales. Here we aim to do this, by investigating whether spatial patterns of under-story tree species at a large spatial scale (18 ha) influences the spatial patterns of ground foraging ant species at a much smaller spatial scale (20 m by 20 m). At the regional scale, exogenous processes (under-story tree community) had a strong effect on the spatial patterns in the ground-foraging ant community. We found significantly more Camponotus noveboracensis, Formica subsericae, and Lasius alienus species in black cherry (Prunis serotine Ehrh.) habitats. In witch-hazel (Hamamelis virginiana L.) habitats, we similarly found significantly more Myrmica americana, Formica fusca, and Formica subsericae. At smaller spatial scales, we observed the emergence of mosaic ant patches changing rapidly in space and time. Our study reveals that spatial patterns are the result of both exogenous and endogenous forces, operating at distinct scales.     

Current regeneration patterns at the tree line in the Pyrenees indicate similar recruitment processes irrespective of the past disturbance regime

Aim Impacts of global change, such as land‐use and climate changes, could produce significant alterations in the elevational patterns of alpine tree line ecotones and their adjacent vegetation zones. Because the responses of the tree line to environmental variations are directly related to successful tree regeneration, understanding recruitment dynamics is an indispensable step in tree line research. We aimed to compare potential ecological limitations on recent tree line regeneration in undisturbed and disturbed sites by analysing the demographic structure and spatiotemporal patterns of recruits and large trees. Location Alpine tree line ecotones comprising Pinus uncinata in the Catalan Pyrenees (north‐east Spain) and Andorra. Methods We assessed the demographic structure and spatial pattern of recent recruitment using techniques of point‐pattern and autocorrelation analyses. A total of 3639 P. uncinata individuals were mapped, measured and aged at 12 sites. To evaluate the effects of past disturbances on recent tree line response we compared tree lines that had either been recently affected by human‐induced disturbances or had remained undisturbed for many years. Results The age structure of the tree lines, together with the lack of an age gap between seedlings and saplings, did not indicate recent episodes of high seedling mortality and suggest that recruitment has been frequent under current climate conditions. Seedlings appeared highly aggregated at short distances (up to 3 m), irrespective of disturbance history, and were spatially segregated with respect to large trees. However, we found no evidence of patches of even‐aged seedlings, and our results suggest that dispersal events at intermediate distances (10–17 m) may be frequent. Autocorrelation analyses revealed different patterns of density and age of recruits between disturbed and undisturbed tree lines, but the strength and small‐scale clustering of seedlings and saplings were very similar between sites. Main conclusions We found no recruitment limitation on recent tree line dynamics in the Pyrenees. Furthermore, processes affecting tree recruitment seem to be similar among populations regardless of their past disturbance regime. Our results suggest that constraints on tree line dynamics causing differential responses between sites may operate on older life stages and not upon recruits, and that such constraints may be more contingent on local site conditions than on disturbance history.     

天然次生林中水曲柳种子的扩散格局

 种子扩散是种群动态中的一个关键环节,研究其扩散格局对了解种子库及更新格局有重要意义。于1999～2000年在天然次生林中选择样地并设置样带,共设取样点1376个,观察和估计了水曲柳(Fraxinus mandshurica)的种子雨格局。结果发现,母树附近,尤其是冠幅范围内,各方向的种子雨没有显著差别。但种子雨密度随距离有明显变化,冠幅范围内平均可达462～903个·m-2。距冠缘10～20 m急剧减少,为50～190个·m-2。72.5%～96.4%的种子散落在距母株树干10 m 的范围内。饱满种子顺风     

辽东山区次生林乔木幼苗分布格局与种间空间关联性

在辽东山区次生林建立4 hm^2样地(200 m×200 m),研究0~50 m尺度范围内乔木幼苗分布格局及种间空间关联性.结果表明:在完全随机零模型下,0~20 m尺度上,95%的树种呈现聚集分布格局;0~16 m尺度上,19个树种呈现聚集分布;随着尺度的增加,聚集分布树种的比例逐渐减少,50 m尺度上,随机分布成为树种分布的主要形式;在异质性泊松过程零模型下,0~24 m尺度上,5%的树种呈现聚集分布,26~50 m尺度上,42%和58%的树种呈现随机和均匀分布.在完全随机零模型下,正相关树种对比例最高,且在50 m尺度下呈现正相关、负相关、无相关3种相关性的树种对比例相同;在异质性泊松过程零模型下,树种对主要呈现负相关,且随尺度增大,负相关的树种对比例逐渐升高.种子扩散限制和生境异质性在某种程度上解释了乔木幼苗的聚集分布格局,乔木幼苗强烈的聚集分布又促使种间空间关联性密切,更新群落稳定性较差.     

Post‐fire tree establishment patterns at the alpine treeline ecotone: Mount Rainier National Park,Washington, USA

Questions: Does tree establishment: (1) occur at a treeline depressed by fire, (2) cause the forest line to ascend upslope, and/or (3) alter landscape heterogeneity? (4) What abiotic and biotic local site conditions are most important in structuring establishment patterns? (5) Does the abiotic setting become more important with increasing upslope distance from the forest line? Location: Western slopes of Mount Rainier, USA. Methods: We performed classification analysis of 1970 satellite imagery and 2003 aerial photography to delineate establishment. Local site conditions were calculated from a LIDAR‐based DEM, ancillary climate data, and 1970 tree locations in a GIS. We used logistic regression on a spatially weighted landscape matrix to rank variables. Results: Considerable establishment after 1970 caused forest line elevation to increase over 150 m in specific locations. Landscape heterogeneity increased with distance from the 1970 forest line. At a broad spatial context, we found establishment was most common near existing trees (0‐50 m) and at low elevations (1250‐1350 m). Slope aspect (W, NW, N, NE, and E), slope angle (40‐60°), and other abiotic factors emerged as important predictors of establishment with increasing upslope distance from the forest line to restricted spatial extents. Conclusions: Favorable climatic conditions likely triggered widespread tree establishment. Readily available seed probably enhanced establishment rates near sexually mature trees, particularly in the less stressful environment at low elevations. The mass effect of nearly ubiquitous establishment in these areas may have obscured the importance of the abiotic setting to restricted spatial extents. Topographic variability apparently produced favorable sites that facilitated opportunistic establishment with increasing upslope distance from the forest line, thereby enabling additional trees to invade the alpine tundra.     

Spatial relationships between the standing vegetation and the soil seed bank in a fire-prone encroached dehesa in Central Spain

Postfire vegetation regeneration in many fire-prone ecosystems is soil seed bank dependent. Although vegetation and seed bank may be spatially structured, the role of prefire vegetation patterns and fire in determining postfire vegetation patterns is poorly known. Here, we investigated the spatial patterning of species abundance and richness in the vegetation and seed bank of a Mediterranean encroached dehesa in Central Spain. The seed bank was studied with and without a heat shock simulating a spatially homogeneous fire. Semivariograms and cross-semivariograms showed that species richness in the vegetation was aggregated in patches, mainly of herbs, with highest values corresponding to high herb cover and low tree cover. Species richness in the seed bank was also structured in patches, but the spatial pattern was weak. Seedling density of germinates in the seed bank also showed weak spatial pattern. Heating increased overall germination and species richness, and the intensity of the spatial pattern of species richness, particularly of herbaceous species. However, seed bank density patterns disappeared after heat shock because of increased germination of shrubs without spatial pattern. Our results document that the spatial structure of plant richness in the vegetation may persist after fire due to the spatial patterns of herbaceous species in the seed bank, and that postfire species richness patterns can arise independently of fire intensity patterns. However, the spatial structure of the vegetation after fire can be altered by the feedback between shrub encroachment and an eventual fire because of the ubiquitous germination of shrubs.     

南方红豆杉响应不同传粉式样的结实表现

采用开花前雌株短枝套袋隔离传粉、花期人工授粉、风媒传粉 对照 及其传粉障碍等几种传粉式样 ,比较不同传粉 授粉 方式对南方红豆杉 Taxus chinensis var.mairei 结实的影响 ;在风媒传粉条件下 ,研究了南方红豆杉不同种植行向、树冠不同方位、上下内外不同层面的结实表现 .结果表明 :南方红豆杉存在孤雌生殖现象 ,平均单枝结实率为 2 8.7% ,与风媒传粉相比较 ,存在极显著差异 P<0 .0 1 ;人工授粉能显著提高结实率 P<0 .0 5 2 0 .7% ;2～ 3月份开花期 ,江汉平原盛行东北风 ,在风媒传粉条件下 ,东西向种植的南方红豆杉有更多的授粉机会 ,其结实情况极显著优于南北向种植的 P<0 .0 1 ;东西向种植的南方红豆杉树冠果实的空间分布 ,受传粉条件包括风向、冠层方位及距传粉源的距离、冠层内外上下层次等因素的影响 ,方位间的结实量按东南西北方位依次为 :2 30 .375粒、185 .6 2 5粒、12 8.813粒、10 5 .4 38粒 ,呈递减趋势 ,冠外层结实量普通高于冠内层 ,树冠东向下外层结实量最高 4 16 .75粒 ,北向下内层最低 2 2 .0 0粒 .     

小兴安岭阔叶红松林粗木质残体空间分布的点格局分析

采用点格局分析方法对小兴安岭典型阔叶红松林9hm2(300m×300m)固定样地内粗木质残体(CWD)的空间分布格局进行了研究。结果表明:固定样地内CWD的总密度为368.8株/hm2,径级结构呈现明显的正态分布,各径级密度差别较大。花楷槭(27.8株/hm2)和枫桦(26.1株/hm2)是阔叶CWD的主要组成树种。红松(41.6株/hm2)是针叶CWD的主要组成树种,针叶树种CWD的数量随着径级的增大而增加,呈典型的J型分布。在150m的空间尺度内,CWD总体在较小尺度上表现为集群分布,在40m尺度上聚集强度最大(0.40),随着尺度的增加,CWD趋于均匀分布。不同径级组在不同规模尺度聚集,随着径级的增加,聚集强度呈下降趋势。不同物种CWD在各径级下的空间分布格局有所不同,具体表现为集群分布和由集群分布向随机分布发展两种形式。不同存在形式的CWD在研究尺度内随着尺度的增加,由集群分布向随机分布发展。随着CWD腐烂等级的增高,其聚集强度和聚集尺度均增大。CWD的空间分布格局是阔叶红松林群落与其自然环境长期作用的结果,从某种程度上也反映了该林型天然更新的格局和机制。     

基于“风感”的紧凑型城市开放空间风环境实测和CFD模拟比对研究

城市开放空间的风场不仅影响微环境的"风感"舒适度还影响宏观尺度的城市气候。从景感生态学的角度出发,首先阐述"风感"的定义,总结了街道峡谷空间风场的基本规律和特点。运用Kestrel NK4500手持气象站对城市开放空间的风环境进行实测,采用CFD(Computational Fluid Dynamics)模拟软件Fluent 14.0对不含绿地的同一空间进行风环境模拟,通过两者的数据比对来研究紧凑型城市开放空间内绿地对行人高度风场的实际干扰程度。结果发现,紧凑型城市开放空间的"风感"受建筑和绿地空间布局的共同影响。当建筑高于绿地时,风场受建筑的控制;当林带高于建筑时,林带对风环境的影响程度受其疏密度影响。疏密度较高的常绿林带对风向和风速影响很大,而疏密度较低的林带会影响风速,对风向影响不大。影响风速的主要因素是空间围合所形成的空气域,相比实体、多孔介质,空气域对风的阻力要小的多。如铺装、草坪上方的通风廊道是影响行人高度层通风、导风的关键因素。紧凑型空间内的绿地在行人高度应保持通畅以保证通风,并通过建立平面和竖向上的通风、导风廊道体系,促进空气循环。     

Spatial pattern analysis in ecology based on Ripley's K-function: Introduction and methods of edge correction

Abstract. Spatial pattern analysis based on Ripley's K-function is a second-order analysis of point patterns in a twodimensional space. The method is increasingly used in studies of spatial distribution patterns of plant communities, but the statistical methods involved are sometimes poorly understood or have been modified without evaluating the effects on results. The procedures of field data acquisition, statistical analysis, and the test for the null hypothesis of complete spatial randomness are described and the presentation of results is discussed. Different methods of edge correction were tested on a computer-generated random pattern and a mapped distribution of a Mediterranean shrubland. The inclusion of buffer zones around mapped plots describes the spatial pattern most accurately, but may not warrant the additional labour involved. Three variations of the weighted edge correction yielded comparable results for the distribution patterns tested. The toroidal edge correction may give biased results for non-random patterns. Recommendations for standardisation of the statistical procedures and data presentation are given.     

Spatial analysis of eucalypt dieback at Coranderrk,Australia

Abstract. The cause of tree disease in any location is difficult to diagnose because of the multiplicity of potential causes. Spatial analysis provides useful evidence on the significance, scale and shape of patterns for disease diagnosis. This study explores the causes of dieback through spatial analysis of tree health at Coranderrk Reserve, an example of an important conservation reserve on the urban fringe of Melbourne, Victoria. Ca. 200 trees were sampled at two sites and measured for position, diameter and height in each of two different community types. An index of tree health was developed, and each tree was assigned a value of health. Dead trees were categorized based on state of decay. Correlograms using Moran's I found significant spatial structure at both study sites. The study employed a method of analysis that compares the spatial patterns in dead and living trees. When all dead trees were eliminated from the analysis, significant spatial pattern was found only at one site. The spatial structures obtained were compared with those expected from the different possible causes of tree dieback. Some potential explanations were eliminated. The results illustrate how spatial analysis may make useful contributions to disease diagnosis if employed systematically together with other modes of investigation.