Climatic and biotic velocities for woody taxa distributions over the last 16 000 years in eastern North America

We estimated the latitudinal velocity (km/decade) of northern and southern boundaries of core distributions for 30 woody taxa over the last 16 000 years (biotic velocities) using networks of fossil pollen records, and compared these with climate velocities estimated from CCSM3 simulations. Biotic velocities were faster during periods of rapid temperature change (i.e. 16 to 7 ka) than times of relative stability (i.e. 7 to 1 ka), with a consistent northward movement of northern and southern boundaries. For most taxa, biotic velocities were faster for northern than for southern boundaries between 12 and 7 ka, resulting in expanding distributions. For individual time periods, biotic velocities were as fast or faster than climate velocities calculated using multivariate approaches. These results indicate that climate change paced the rate of distribution shifts in both northern and southern populations while suggesting that northern populations were more sensitive. A similar sensitivity and pacing is expected under 21st century climate change.     

Post‐fire vegetation and climate dynamics in low‐elevation forests over the last three millennia in Yellowstone National Park

Conifer forests of the western US are historically well adapted to wildfires, but current warming is creating novel disturbance regimes that may fundamentally change future forest dynamics. Stand‐replacing fires can catalyze forest reorganization by providing periodic opportunities for establishment of new tree cohorts that set the stage for stand development for centuries to come. Extensive research on modern and past fires in the Northern Rockies reveals how variations in climate and fire have led to large changes in forest distribution and composition. Unclear, however, is the importance of individual fire episodes in catalyzing change. We used high‐resolution paleoecologic and paleoclimatic data from Crevice Lake (Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA), to explore the role of fire in driving low‐elevation forest dynamics over the last 2820 yr. We addressed two questions: 1) did low‐elevation forests at Crevice Lake experience abrupt community‐level vegetation changes in response to past fire events? 2) Did the interaction of short‐term disturbance events (fire) and long‐term climate change catalyze past shifts in forest composition? Over the last 2820 yr, we found no evidence for abrupt community‐level vegetation transitions at Crevice Lake, and no evidence that an interaction of climate and fire produced changes in the relative abundance of dominant plant taxa. In part, this result reflects limitations of the datasets to detect past event‐specific responses and their causes. Nonetheless, the relative stability of the vegetation to fires over the last 2820 yr provides a local baseline for assessing current and future ecological change. Observations of climate–fire–vegetation dynamics in recent decades suggest that this multi‐millennial‐scale baseline may soon be exceeded.     

Vegetation and climate changes during the last 21 000 years in S.W. Africa based on a marine pollen record

A high resolution marine pollen record from site GeoB1023, west of the northern Namib desert provides data on vegetation and climate change for the last 21 ka at an average resolution of 185 y. Pollen and spores are mainly delivered to the site by the Cunene river and by surface and mid-tropospheric wind systems. The main pollen source areas are located between 13°S and 21°S, which includes the northern Namib desert and semi-desert, the Angola-northern Namibian highland, and the north-western Kalahari. The pollen spectra reflect environmental changes in the region. The last glacial maximum (LGM) was characterised by colder and more arid conditions than at present, when a vegetation with temperate elements such as Asteroideae, Ericaceae, and Restionaceae grew north of 21°S. At 17.5 ka cal. B.P., an amelioration both in temperature and humidity terminated the LGM but, in the northern Kalahari, mean annual rainfall in the interval 17.5-14.4 ka cal. B.P. was probably 100–150 mm lower than at present (400–500 mm/y). The Late-glacial to early Holocene transition includes two arid periods, i.e. 14.4–12.5 and 10.9–9.3 ka cal. B.P. The last part of the former period may be correlated with the Younger Dryas. The warmest and most humid period in the Holocene occurred between 6.3 and 4.8 ka cal. B.P. During the last 2000 years, human impact, as reflected by indications of deforestation, enhanced burning and overgrazing, progressively intensified.     

Impacts of human activity and climate change on the distribution of snub‐nosed monkeys in China during the past 2000 years

Aim

In this article, we analysed two millennia of historical records and environmental information to reconstruct the past distribution and examine the current distribution of snub‐nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus) in China.

Location

China.

Methods

We applied trend surface analysis (TSA) to document patterns of range shifting in snub‐nosed monkeys over time. Random forest was used to study the association between explanatory variables and changes in the distribution of snub‐nosed monkeys over the past 2000 years.

Results

Our results showed that both the longitude and latitude of snub‐nosed monkeys contracted from 0 to 2000 AD. We found that the integrated effects of human population size and changes in temperature in the Northern Hemisphere resulted in a westward and northward contraction of the snub‐nosed monkey distributional range. However, the impact of fluctuating temperature was greatest during periods of low human population density (0–1200 AD), whereas from 1200 to 2000 AD, marked increases in human population size in China leading to extensive deforestation, agricultural expansion, hunting, logging and land terracing have had the greatest negative effects. Further analyses highlighted the fact that the rapid expansion of human population density in regions occupied by snub‐nosed monkeys between 1700 and 2000 has resulted in the recent extirpation of this primate radiation in eastern, south‐eastern and central China.

Main conclusions

We examined the interactive effects of human population growth, deforestation, agricultural expansion and climate variation on the past and current distribution of snub‐nosed monkeys. Our data provide clear evidence that climate change, human population increase and human activities have differentially affected the viability and distribution of snub‐nosed monkey populations over time. In particular, the marked expansion of the human population in China over the past 300 years has resulted in the extinction of Rhinopithecus populations across much of its range.     

Vegetation dynamics in central Africa since 18,000 yr BP: pollen records from the interlacustrine highlands of Burundi, Rwanda and western Uganda

A standardized analysis of palaeoecological data, in the form of six pollen sequences and forty- four radiocarbon ages, has permitted a region-wide reconstruction of Late Quaternary vegetation dynamics for the interlacustrine highlands of central Africa.
A landscape widely dominated by ericaceous scrub and grasslands, but also supporting sparse patches of open-canopied montane forest, possibly in those areas with a topography most favourable to the growth of trees, is indicated for the last glacial maximum of 18,000 yr bp . Major expansions in the extent of upper altitudinal forms of montane forest occurred from around 12,500 yr bp , while lower moist montane forest—the expected climax for much of the region today—did not become prominent until 11,000 yr bp to 10,000 yr bp . From the palaeoecological evidence at least, it appears that the major east Central forest refuge, proposed by some workers on the basis of current species' distribution patterns, did not extend to the eastern flanks of the Albertine Rift.
A late glacial–early Holocene transition is only fully chronicled in two of the sites. However, it appears that the expansion of lower montane forest had a time-transgressive pattern across the region, and was not simply from low to high altitude. The composition of forests during the early Holocene appears to have been different to that in the later stages of the present interglacial, as taxa presently associated with wetter and/or more open forest types were much more common. Pollen data also indicate that higher altitude parts of the interlacustrine highlands were more attractive to the earliest (possibly Bantu-speaking) farmers and metal-workers. There is evidence of wide-spread forest clearance around the beginning of the present millennium, possibly as a result of substantial changes in socio-economic conditions, and patterns of settlement, associated with the onset of the Late Iron Age.     

Forest response to climate changes in Atlantic Equatorial Africa during the last 4000 years BP and inheritance on the modern landscapes

This review paper synthesizes the recent published palaeoecological results obtained in Atlantic Equatorial Africa (ECOFIT program) on the history of forest ecosystems and inferred climate changes during the past 4000 years. Evidence are mainly provided by pollen analysis carried out at nine sites from Congo, Cameroon and Ghana, locally supported by macroflora remains, phytoliths, diatoms, δ¹³C and mineralogical data. At all the sites, except Lake Bosumtwi (Ghana), following a large expansion of rain and mesophilous forests until 3000 years BP , a major change is registered, affecting floristic composition, structure and geographical distribution. According to the hydrological sensitivity of the different sites, local openings of the forests with development of heliophilous formations and/or isolated enclosed savannas are observed at the most humid sites; complete disappearance of forested formations at the driest. The agreement between pollen records, hydrological and hydrobiological data definitely demonstrates that an arid event has been the primary driving factor of this change and is responsable for the main features of the modern landscapes in Atlantic Equatorial Africa. Moreover, the most recent palaeoecological data obtained in Congo (Lake Sinnda), indicate that this Late Holocene increasing aridity was of longer duration, from 4000 to 1300 years BP , and more progressive than previously inferred. A new expansion of forests is locally detected c. 900–600 BP despite increased human impact.     

Stability in a changing world – palm community dynamics in the hyperdiverse western Amazon over 17 years

Are the hyperdiverse local forests of the western Amazon undergoing changes linked to global and local drivers such as climate change, or successional dynamics? We analyzed local climatic records to assess potential climatic changes in Yasuní National Park, Ecuador, and compared two censuses (1995, 2012) of a palm community to assess changes in community structure and composition. Over 17 years, the structure and composition of this palm community remained remarkably stable. Soil humidity was significantly lower and canopy conditions were significantly more open in 2012 compared to 1995, but local climatic records showed that no significant changes in precipitation, temperature or river level have occurred during the last decade. Thus, we found no evidence of recent directional shifts in climate or the palm community in Yasuní. The absence of changes in local climate and plant community dynamics in Yasuní contrasts with recent findings from eastern Amazon, where environmental change is driving significant changes in ecosystem dynamics. Our findings suggest that until now, local forests in the northwest Amazon may have escaped pressure from climate change. The stability of this rich palm community embedded in the hyperdiverse Yasuní National Park underlines its uniqueness as a sanctuary for the protection of Amazonian diversity from global change impacts.     

Multifarious anchovy and sardine regimes in the Humboldt Current System during the last 150 years

The Humboldt Current System (HCS) has the highest production of forage fish in the world, although it is highly variable and the future of the primary component, anchovy, is uncertain in the context of global warming. Paradigms based on late 20th century observations suggest that large‐scale forcing controls decadal‐scale fluctuations of anchovy and sardine across different boundary currents of the Pacific. We develop records of anchovy and sardine fluctuations since 1860 AD using fish scales from multiple sites containing laminated sediments and compare them with Pacific basin‐scale and regional indices of ocean climate variability. Our records reveal two main anchovy and sardine phases with a timescale that is not consistent with previously proposed periodicities. Rather, the regime shifts in the HCS are related to 3D habitat changes driven by changes in upwelling intensity from both regional and large‐scale forcing. Moreover, we show that a long‐term increase in coastal upwelling translates via a bottom‐up mechanism to top predators suggesting that the warming climate, at least up to the start of the 21st century, was favorable for fishery productivity in the HCS.     

A 7000‐year history of changing plant trait composition in an Amazonian landscape; the role of humans and climate

Tropical forests are shifting in species and trait composition, but the main underlying causes remain unclear because of the short temporal scales of most studies. Here, we develop a novel approach by linking functional trait data with 7000 years of forest dynamics from a fossil pollen record of Lake Sauce in the Peruvian Amazon. We evaluate how climate and human disturbances affect community trait composition. We found weak relationships between environmental conditions and traits at the taxon level, but strong effects for community‐mean traits. Overall, community‐mean traits were more responsive to human disturbances than to climate change; human‐induced erosion increased the dominance of dense‐wooded, non‐zoochorous species with compound leaves, and human‐induced fire increased the dominance of tall, zoochorous taxa with large seeds and simple leaves. This information can help to enhance our understanding of forest responses to past environmental changes, and improve predictions of future changes in tropical forest composition.     

Vegetation history of the SE section of the Zagros Mountains during the last five millennia; a pollen record from the Maharlou Lake, Fars Province, Iran

A pollen diagram was derived from a 150 cm core taken from the shallow hypersaline Lake Maharlou in the south-eastern part of the Zagros Mountains, SW Iran. The pollen record shows that Quercus brantii woodland and Pistacia–Amygdalus scrub dominated the area during the late Holocene. The record starts at around 5700 cal b.p. with a dry period during which both Pistacia–Amygdalus scrub and Quercus brantii woodland were at their minimum extent. This period was followed by the expansion of Pistacia–Amygdalus scrub in the area and the spread of Quercus brantii woodlands at higher altitudes. An important occupation phase, characterized by the appearance of several cultivated tree species such as Juglans, Olea, Vitis and Platanus, started at ca. 4300 cal b.p., coinciding with the onset of the Bronze Age civilization of Jiroft in Central Iran. Human activities become very clear after 3700 cal b.p. Around 2700 cal b.p., extensive stands of Pistacia–Amygdalus scrub became profoundly degraded, presumably under strong human pressure coinciding with the beginning of the Persian Empires. The maximum expansion of the Quercus brantii woodland occurred about 2100 to 1700 cal b.p. This woodland remained relatively stable until the end of the diagram at 400 cal b.p.     

Depth‐specific responses of a chironomid assemblage to contrasting anthropogenic pressures: a palaeolimnological perspective from the last 150 years

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Terrestrial and aquatic responses to climate change and human impact on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau during the past two centuries

Rapid population growth and economic development have led to increased anthropogenic pressures on the Tibetan Plateau, causing significant land cover changes with potentially severe ecological consequences. To assess whether or not these pressures are also affecting the remote montane‐boreal lakes on the SE Tibetan Plateau, fossil pollen and diatom data from two lakes were synthesized. The interplay of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystem response was explored in respect to climate variability and human activity over the past 200 years. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling and Procrustes rotation analysis were undertaken to determine whether pollen and diatom responses in each lake were similar and synchronous. Detrended canonical correspondence analysis was used to develop quantitative estimates of compositional species turnover. Despite instrumental evidence of significant climatic warming on the southeastern Plateau, the pollen and diatom records indicate very stable species composition throughout their profiles and show only very subtle responses to environmental changes over the past 200 years. The compositional species turnover (0.36–0.94 SD) is relatively low in comparison to the species reorganizations known from the periods during the mid‐ and early‐Holocene (0.64–1.61 SD) on the SE Plateau, and also in comparison to turnover rates of sediment records from climate‐sensitive regions in the circum arctic. Our results indicate that climatically induced ecological thresholds are not yet crossed, but that human activity has an increasing influence, particularly on the terrestrial ecosystem in our study area. Synergistic processes of post‐Little Ice Age warming, 20th century climate warming and extensive reforestations since the 19th century have initiated a change from natural oak‐pine forests to seminatural, likely less resilient pine‐oak forests. Further warming and anthropogenic disturbances would possibly exceed the ecological threshold of these ecosystems and lead to severe ecological consequences.