Sexual selection and peripatric speciation: the Kaneshiro model revisited

The Kaneshiro model proposes a role for sexual selection in peripatric speciation. During population bottlenecks, derived males lose attractive traits and become discriminated against by ancestral females, whereas derived females are selected to be less choosy. This permits novel mate choice cues to evolve in derived populations. In a quantitative analysis of laboratory experiments, we show that bottlenecked males have indeed become less attractive, but females have not lost their ancestral preferences. Contrary to the model, mating asymmetries were not limited to bottlenecks, but regularly occurred between derived and ancestral populations. The simplest explanation for the observed mating asymmetries is loss of genetic variation and inbreeding in the derived populations. The Kaneshiro process is unlikely to isolate small daughter populations from their ancestor but with slight modifications it may become a strong candidate for speciation in allopatry manifested as isolation between daughter populations in secondary contact.     

Domesticated birds as a model for the genetics of speciation by sexual selection

In theory, even populations occupying identical environments can diverge in sexually selected traits, as a consequence of different mutational input. I evaluate the potential of this process by comparing the genetics of breeds of domesticated birds to what is known about the genetics of differences among species. Within domesticated species there is a strong correlation of time since domestication with the number of breeds. Descendants of the rock dove, Columba livia (the oldest domesticate) show differences in courtship, vocalizations, body shape, feather ornaments (crests and tails) and colors and color patterns. When nine other domesticated species are included there is a striking hierarchy, with more recent domesticates having a nested subset of these traits: the youngest domesticated species have breeds distinguished only by color. This suggests that selection of new, visible, mutations is driving the process of breed diversification, with mutations that appeal to the breeder happening the most frequently in color. In crosses among related species, color, feather ornaments and many vocalizations and displays show both intermediate dominance and pure dominance. Although the number of loci affecting each of these traits is typically unknown, limited evidence of the genetics of species differences suggests that some differences are due to the substitution of single genes of major effect. While neither the genetics of breeds nor the genetics of species provide a perfect model for the genetics of speciation, similarities between the two are sufficiently striking to infer that major, visible, mutations can provide the impetus underlying new directions of sexual selection.     

The role of mate‐choice copying in speciation and hybridization

Mate‐choice copying, a social, non‐genetic mechanism of mate choice, occurs when an individual (typically a female) copies the mate choice of other individuals via a process of social learning. Over the past 20 years, mate‐choice copying has consistently been shown to affect mate choice in several species, by altering the genetically based expression of mating preferences. This behaviour has been claimed by several authors to have a significant role in evolution. Because it can cause or increase skews in male mating success, it seems to have the potential to induce a rapid change of the directionality and rate of sexual selection, possibly leading to divergent evolution and speciation. Theoretical work has, however, been challenging this view, showing that copying may decelerate sexual selection and that linkage disequilibrium cannot be established between the copied preference and the male trait, because females copy from unrelated individuals in the population, making an invasion of new and potentially fitter male traits difficult. Given this controversy, it is timely to ask about the real impact of mate‐choice copying in speciation. We propose that a solution to this impasse may be the existence of some degree of habitat selection, which would create a spatial structure, causing scenarios of micro‐allopatry and thus overcoming the problem of the lack of linkage disequilibrium. As far as we are aware, the potential role of mate‐choice copying on fostering speciation in micro‐allopatry has not been tackled. Also important is that the role of mate‐choice copying has generally been discussed as being a barrier to gene flow. However, in our view, mate‐choice copying may actually play a key role in facilitating gene flow, thereby fostering hybridization. Yet, the role of mate‐choice copying in hybridization has so far been overlooked, although the conditions under which it might occur are more likely, or less restricted, than those favouring speciation. Hence, a conceptual framework is needed to identify the exact mechanisms and the conditions under which speciation or hybridization are expected. Here, we develop such a framework to be used as a roadmap for future research at the intersection of these research areas.     

Mutation‐order divergence by sexual selection: diversification of sexual signals in similar environments as a first step in speciation

The origin of species remains a central question, and recent research focuses on the role of ecological differences in promoting speciation. Ecological differences create opportunities for divergent selection (i.e. ‘ecological’ speciation), a Darwinian hypothesis that hardly requires justification. In contrast, ‘mutation‐order’ speciation proposes that, instead of adapting to different environments, populations find different ways to adapt to similar environments, implying that speciation does not require ecological differences. This distinction is critical as it provides an alternative hypothesis to the prevailing view that ecological differences drive speciation. Speciation by sexual selection lies at the centre of debates about the importance of ecological differences in promoting speciation; here, we present verbal and mathematical models of mutation‐order divergence by sexual selection. We develop three general cases and provide a two‐locus population genetic model for each. Results indicate that alternative secondary sexual traits can fix in populations that initially experience similar natural and sexual selection and that divergent traits and preferences can remain stable in the face of low gene flow. This stable divergence can facilitate subsequent divergence that completes or reinforces speciation. We argue that a mutation‐order process could explain widespread diversity in secondary sexual traits among closely related, allopatric species.     

A comparison of regression methods for model selection in individual‐based landscape genetic analysis

Anthropogenic migration barriers fragment many populations and limit the ability of species to respond to climate‐induced biome shifts. Conservation actions designed to conserve habitat connectivity and mitigate barriers are needed to unite fragmented populations into larger, more viable metapopulations, and to allow species to track their climate envelope over time. Landscape genetic analysis provides an empirical means to infer landscape factors influencing gene flow and thereby inform such conservation actions. However, there are currently many methods available for model selection in landscape genetics, and considerable uncertainty as to which provide the greatest accuracy in identifying the true landscape model influencing gene flow among competing alternative hypotheses. In this study, we used population genetic simulations to evaluate the performance of seven regression‐based model selection methods on a broad array of landscapes that varied by the number and type of variables contributing to resistance, the magnitude and cohesion of resistance, as well as the functional relationship between variables and resistance. We also assessed the effect of transformations designed to linearize the relationship between genetic and landscape distances. We found that linear mixed effects models had the highest accuracy in every way we evaluated model performance; however, other methods also performed well in many circumstances, particularly when landscape resistance was high and the correlation among competing hypotheses was limited. Our results provide guidance for which regression‐based model selection methods provide the most accurate inferences in landscape genetic analysis and thereby best inform connectivity conservation actions.     

Male versus female mate choice: sexual selection and the evolution of species recognition via reinforcement

Male mate choice, expressed through courtship preferences, sometime occurs even under the mating system of polygyny, when the operational sex ratio is skewed toward males. The conditions under which male mate choice may be expected during polygyny are not well established. Servedio and Lande (2006, Evolution 60:674-685), assuming strict polygyny where all females have equal mating success, show that when having a preference does not increase the amount of energy that a male can put into courtship, male preferences for "arbitrary" female ornaments should not be expected to evolve; direct selection acts against them because they place males that carry them into situations in which there is high competition for mates. Here I explore in detail two situations under which logic dictates that this effect may be overcome or reversed. First I determine the contributions that direct and indirect selection place on male versus female preferences for traits that increase viability, using notation that allows the exact expression of these measures of selection. I find that direct selection against male preferences still predominates in the male mate choice model, causing less evolution by male than female preferences under these conditions. Second I address whether male mate choice is likely to evolve as a mechanism of premating isolation leading to species recognition, driven by the process of reinforcement. Reinforcement is compared under male and female mate choice, using a variety of models analyzed by both analytical techniques assuming weak selection and numerical techniques under broader selective conditions. I demonstrate that although under many conditions stronger premating isolation evolves under female mate choice, reinforcement may indeed occur via male mate choice alone.     

Spangled perch (Leiopotherapon unicolor) in the southern Murray‐Darling Basin: Flood dispersal and short‐term persistence outside its core range

The spangled perch Leiopotherapon unicolor is considered a rare vagrant in the southern Murray‐Darling Basin, Australia, due to its intolerance of the relatively cool water temperatures that prevail during winter months. This study details 1342 records of the species from 68 locations between 2010 and 2014 outside its accepted ‘core adult range’ following widespread flooding during 2010 and 2011. Although records of the species declined over 2013, L. unicolor remained resident in the southern Murray‐Darling Basin as of April 2014. The species persisted in several locations for three consecutive winters with recruitment documented at two sites. This study represents the first identification of the dispersal of large numbers of L. unicolor into the southern Murray‐Darling Basin, persistence beyond a single winter, and recruitment by the species in habitats south of its recognized ‘core adult range’. Targeted research would determine the potential for predicted environmental changes (artificially warmer drainage wetlands, climate change and greater floodplain connectivity) to facilitate longer term persistence and range expansion by the species in the southern Murray‐Darling Basin.     

The geography of speciation in narrow‐range endemics of the ‘Haenydra’ lineage (Coleoptera,Hydraenidae, Hydraena)

Aim We test whether species of western Mediterranean aquatic Coleoptera of the ‘Haenydra’ lineage (Hydraenidae, Hydraena) originated through: (1) successive periods of dispersal and speciation, (2) range fragmentation by random vicariance, or (3) range fragmentation by geographic isolation owing to a general reduction of population density. Location Europe. Methods To discriminate between scenarios we use contrasting predictions of the relationship between phylogenetic and geographic distance. The phylogeny was based on 3 kb of four mitochondrial and two nuclear gene fragments of about half of the known species of ‘Haenydra’, including most western Mediterranean taxa. Divergences were estimated using a molecular clock. The relationship between phylogenetic and geographic distance was tested using bivariate plots, Mantel tests and comparison of the observed phylogeny with the one minimizing geographic distances between species, as measured using Euclidean minimum spanning trees (EMSTs). Results The monophyly of ‘Haenydra’ was strongly supported, although its phylogenetic placement was not resolved. ‘Haenydra’ was estimated to be of late Miocene age, with most species originating during the Pleistocene. In two clades (Hydraena tatii and Hydraena emarginata clades) there was a significant association between geographic and phylogenetic distance, and the reconstructed phylogeny was identical to that obtained through the EMST, demonstrating a strong non‐randomness of the geographic distribution of the species. In two other clades (Hydraena iberica and Hydraena bitruncata clades) there was no association between geographic and phylogenetic distance, and the observed phylogeny was not the one minimizing geographic distances. In one of the clades this seems to be due to a secondary, recent range expansion of one species (H. iberica), which erased the geographic signal of their distributions. Main conclusions We show that it is possible to obtain strong evidence of stasis of the geographic ranges of narrow‐range endemic species through the study of their phylogenetic relationships and current distributions. In at least two of the studied clades, current species seem to have originated through the fragmentation of a more widely distributed species, without further range movements. A process of range expansion and fragmentation may have occurred repeatedly within the ‘Haenydra’ lineage, contributing to the accumulation of narrow‐range endemics in Mediterranean Pleistocene refugia.     

Divergence and evolution of assortative mating in a polygenic trait model of speciation with gene flow

Assortative mating is an important driver of speciation in populations with gene flow and is predicted to evolve under certain conditions in few‐locus models. However, the evolution of assortment is less understood for mating based on quantitative traits, which are often characterized by high genetic variability and extensive linkage disequilibrium between trait loci. We explore this scenario for a two‐deme model with migration, by considering a single polygenic trait subject to divergent viability selection across demes, as well as assortative mating and sexual selection within demes, and investigate how trait divergence is shaped by various evolutionary forces. Our analysis reveals the existence of sharp thresholds of assortment strength, at which divergence increases dramatically. We also study the evolution of assortment via invasion of modifiers of mate discrimination and show that the ES assortment strength has an intermediate value under a range of migration‐selection parameters, even in diverged populations, due to subtle effects which depend sensitively on the extent of phenotypic variation within these populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the polygenic trait is studied using the hypergeometric and infinitesimal models. We further investigate the sensitivity of our results to the assumptions of the hypergeometric model, using individual‐based simulations.     

Exploring the power of Bayesian birth‐death skyline models to detect mass extinction events from phylogenies with only extant taxa

Mass extinction events (MEEs), defined as significant losses of species diversity in significantly short time periods, have attracted the attention of biologists because of their link to major environmental change. MEEs have traditionally been studied through the fossil record, but the development of birth‐death models has made it possible to detect their signature based on extant‐taxa phylogenies. Most birth‐death models consider MEEs as instantaneous events where a high proportion of species are simultaneously removed from the tree (“single pulse” approach), in contrast to the paleontological record, where MEEs have a time duration. Here, we explore the power of a Bayesian Birth‐Death Skyline (BDSKY) model to detect the signature of MEEs through changes in extinction rates under a “time‐slice” approach. In this approach, MEEs are time intervals where the extinction rate is greater than the speciation rate. Results showed BDSKY can detect and locate MEEs but that precision and accuracy depend on the phylogeny's size and MEE intensity. Comparisons of BDSKY with the single‐pulse Bayesian model, CoMET, showed a similar frequency of Type II error and neither model exhibited Type I error. However, while CoMET performed better in detecting and locating MEEs for smaller phylogenies, BDSKY showed higher accuracy in estimating extinction and speciation rates.     

Evolution of mate choice and the so‐called magic traits in ecological speciation

Non‐random mating provides multiple evolutionary benefits and can result in speciation. Biological organisms are characterised by a myriad of different traits, many of which can serve as mating cues. We consider multiple mechanisms of non‐random mating simultaneously within a unified modelling framework in an attempt to understand better which are more likely to evolve in natural populations going through the process of local adaptation and ecological speciation. We show that certain traits that are under direct natural selection are more likely to be co‐opted as mating cues, leading to the appearance of magic traits (i.e. phenotypic traits involved in both local adaptation and mating decisions). Multiple mechanisms of non‐random mating can interact so that trait co‐evolution enables the evolution of non‐random mating mechanisms that would not evolve alone. The presence of magic traits may suggest that ecological selection was acting during the origin of new species.     

The genetic architecture of ecological speciation and the association with signatures of selection in natural lake whitefish (Coregonus sp. Salmonidae) species pairs

Adaptive evolutionary change is contingent on variation and selection; thus, understanding adaptive divergence and ultimately speciation requires information on both the genetic basis of adaptive traits as well as an understanding of the role of divergent natural selection on those traits. The lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) consists of several sympatric "dwarf" (limnetic) and normal (benthic) species pairs that co-inhabit northern postglacial lakes. These young species pairs have evolved independently and display parallelism in life history, behavioral, and morphological divergence associated with the use of distinct trophic resources. We identified phenotype-environment associations and determined the genetic architecture and the role of selection modulating population genetic divergence in sympatric dwarf and normal lake whitefish. The genetic architecture of 9 adaptive traits was analyzed in 2 hybrid backcrosses individually phenotyped throughout their life history. Significant quantitative trait loci (QTL) were associated with swimming behavior (habitat selection and predator avoidance), growth rate, morphology (condition factor and gill rakers), and life history (onset of maturity and fecundity). Genome scans among 4 natural sympatric pairs, using loci segregating in the map, revealed a signature of selection for 24 loci. Loci exhibiting a signature of selection were associated with QTL relative to other regions of the genome more often than expected by chance alone. Two parallel QTL outliers for growth and condition factor exhibited segregation distortion in both mapping families, supporting the hypothesis that adaptive divergence contributing to parallel reductions of gene flow among natural populations may cause genetic incompatibilities. Overall, these findings offer evidence that the genetic architecture of ecological speciation is associated with signatures of selection in nature, providing strong support for the hypothesis that divergent natural selection is currently maintaining adaptive differentiation and promoting ecological speciation in lake whitefish species pairs.     

A meta‐analysis of the agents of selection on floral traits

Floral traits are hypothesized to evolve primarily in response to selection by pollinators. However, selection can also be mediated by other environmental factors. To understand the relative importance of pollinator‐mediated selection and its variation among trait and pollinator types, we analyzed directional selection gradients on floral traits from experiments that manipulated the environment to identify agents of selection. Pollinator‐mediated selection was stronger than selection by other biotic factors (e.g., herbivores), but similar in strength to selection by abiotic factors (e.g., soil water), providing partial support for the hypothesis that floral traits evolve primarily in response to pollinators. Pollinator‐mediated selection was stronger on pollination efficiency traits than on other trait types, as expected if efficiency traits affect fitness via interactions with pollinators, but other trait types also affect fitness via other environmental factors. In addition to varying among trait types, pollinator‐mediated selection varied among pollinator taxa: selection was stronger when bees, long‐tongued flies, or birds were the primary visitors than when the primary visitors were Lepidoptera or multiple animal taxa. Finally, reducing pollinator access to flowers had a relatively small effect on selection on floral traits, suggesting that anthropogenic declines in pollinator populations would initially have modest effects on floral evolution.     

A joint model for longitudinal continuous and time‐to‐event outcomes with direct marginal interpretation

Joint modeling of various longitudinal sequences has received quite a bit of attention in recent times. This paper proposes a so‐called marginalized joint model for longitudinal continuous and repeated time‐to‐event outcomes on the one hand and a marginalized joint model for bivariate repeated time‐to‐event outcomes on the other. The model has several appealing features. It flexibly allows for association among measurements of the same outcome at different occasions as well as among measurements on different outcomes recorded at the same time. The model also accommodates overdispersion. The time‐to‐event outcomes are allowed to be censored. While the model builds upon the generalized linear mixed model framework, it is such that model parameters enjoy a direct marginal interpretation. All of these features have been considered before, but here we bring them together in a unified, flexible framework. The model framework's properties are scrutinized using a simulation study. The models are applied to data from a chronic heart failure study and to a so‐called comet assay, encountered in preclinical research. Almost surprisingly, the models can be fitted relatively easily using standard statistical software.     

Geographic patterns of endemism and speciation in amphibians and reptiles of the Ryukyu Archipelago, Japan, with special reference to their paleogeographical implications

This paper analyzes the phylogeographical patterns of amphibian and reptile lineages distributed in the Ryukyu islands south of the Tokara Gap on the basis of relevant distributional data and phylogenetic hypotheses hitherto published. Results indicate the numerical dominance of highly relict lineages in the central Ryukyus, and the occurences of a few more or less relict lineages in the Miyako Group as well. On the other hand, most species and subspecies endemic to the Yaeyama Group or to the Yaeyama and Miyako Groups are considered to be direct consequences of vicariance with adjacent regions. Three major hypotheses regarding the Cenozoic paleogeography of the central and the southern Ryukyus are examined in the light of the present results and a modified hypothesis is proposed accordingly.     

Genomic signatures of divergent selection and speciation patterns in a ‘natural experiment’, the young parallel radiations of Nicaraguan crater lake cichlid fishes

Divergent selection is the main driving force in sympatric ecological speciation and may also play a strong role in divergence between allopatric populations. Characterizing the genome‐wide impact of divergent selection often constitutes a first step in unravelling the genetic bases underlying adaptation and ecological speciation. The Midas cichlid fish (Amphilophus citrinellus) species complex in Nicaragua is a powerful system for studying evolutionary processes. Independent colonizations of isolated young crater lakes by Midas cichlid populations from the older and great lakes of Nicaragua resulted in the repeated evolution of adaptive radiations by intralacustrine sympatric speciation. In this study we performed genome scans on two repeated radiations of crater lake species and their great lake source populations (1030 polymorphic AFLPs, n ～ 30 individuals per species). We detected regions under divergent selection (0.3% in the crater lake Xiloá flock and 1.7% in the older crater lake Apoyo radiation) that might be responsible for the sympatric diversifications. We find no evidence that the same genomic regions have been involved in the repeated evolution of parallel adaptations across crater lake flocks. However, there is some genetic parallelism apparent (seven out of 51 crater lake to great lake outlier loci are shared; 13.7%) that is associated with the allopatric divergence of both crater lake flocks. Interestingly, our results suggest that the number of outlier loci involved in sympatric and allopatric divergence increases over time. A phylogeny based on the AFLP data clearly supports the monophyly of both crater lake species flocks and indicates a parallel branching order with a primary split along the limnetic‐benthic axis in both radiations.     

Comparing the consequences of natural selection,adaptive phenotypic plasticity,and matching habitat choice for phenotype–environment matching,population genetic structure,and reproductive isolation in meta‐populations

Organisms commonly experience significant spatiotemporal variation in their environments. In response to such heterogeneity, different mechanisms may act that enhance ecological performance locally. However, depending on the nature of the mechanism involved, the consequences for populations may differ greatly. Building on a previous model that investigated the conditions under which different adaptive mechanisms (co)evolve, this study compares the ecological and evolutionary population consequences of three very different responses to environmental heterogeneity: matching habitat choice (directed gene flow), adaptive plasticity (associated with random gene flow), and divergent natural selection. Using individual‐based simulations, we show that matching habitat choice can have a greater adaptive potential than plasticity or natural selection: it allows for local adaptation while protecting genetic polymorphism despite global mating or strong environmental changes. Our simulations further reveal that increasing environmental fluctuations and unpredictability generally favor the emergence of specialist genotypes but that matching habitat choice is better at preventing local maladaptation by individuals. This confirms that matching habitat choice can speed up the genetic divergence among populations, cause indirect assortative mating via spatial clustering, and hence even facilitate sympatric speciation. This study highlights the potential importance of directed dispersal in local adaptation and speciation, stresses the difficulty of deriving its operation from nonexperimental observational data alone, and helps define a set of ecological conditions which should favor its emergence and subsequent detection in nature.     

Incipient post‐zygotic barrier in a model system of ecological speciation with gene flow

The role of post‐zygotic isolation in nonallopatric ecological speciation is still mostly unknown and information on the nature and strength of these barriers in well‐known speciation models is essential for a deeper understanding of such processes. The Galician ecotypes of the marine snail Littorina saxatilis represent one of the best studied cases of nonallopatric ecological speciation. Here, we test the existence of incipient post‐zygotic isolation by comparing the fertility of male hybrids with that of both pure forms [ridged and banded (RB) and smooth and unbanded (SU) ecotypes]. We analysed the degree of sperm DNA fragmentation (SDF) of individuals morphologically classified as RB, SU and hybrids, sampled from two locations. SDF analyses were chosen to study sperm quality because, in other animal species, SDF rates correlate with important parameters for speciation research, such as fertilization and abortion rates and viability of adult progeny. In the present work, hybrids showed significantly higher SDF rates than RB and SU males in one location and significantly higher variances in both locations. These results suggest the existence of an incipient post‐zygotic barrier, the strength of which may vary across the Galician shore, and highlight the potential of SDF analyses for speciation research.     

Body size and extinction risk in Australian mammals: An information‐theoretic approach

The critical weight range (CWR) hypothesis for Australian mammals states that extinctions and declines have been concentrated in species with body mass between 35 g and 5.5 kg. The biological basis for this hypothesis is that species of intermediate size are disproportionately impacted by introduced predators. The CWR hypothesis has received support from several statistical studies over the past decade, although the evidence is weaker or non‐existent for certain groups such as mesic‐zone mammals and arboreal mammals. In this study, we employ an information‐theoretic model selection approach to gain further insights into the relationship between body mass and extinction risk in Australian mammals. We find evidence, consistent with the CWR hypothesis, that extinction risk peaks at intermediate body masses for marsupials, rodents and ground‐dwelling species, but not for arboreal species. In contrast to previous studies, we find that the CWR describes extinction patterns in the mesic zone as well as the arid zone. In the mesic zone, there is also a weaker tendency for large species above the CWR to be more vulnerable, consistent with extinction patterns on other continents. We find that a more biological plausible Gaussian distribution consistently fits the data better than the polynomial models that have been used in previous studies. Our results justify conservation programmes targeted at species within the CWR across Australia.