Horizon scanning for invasive alien species with the potential to threaten biodiversity in Great Britain

Invasive alien species (IAS) are considered one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, particularly through their interactions with other drivers of change. Horizon scanning, the systematic examination of future potential threats and opportunities, leading to prioritization of IAS threats is seen as an essential component of IAS management. Our aim was to consider IAS that were likely to impact on native biodiversity but were not yet established in the wild in Great Britain. To achieve this, we developed an approach which coupled consensus methods (which have previously been used for collaboratively identifying priorities in other contexts) with rapid risk assessment. The process involved two distinct phases:

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Estimating the Hidden Burden of Bovine Tuberculosis in Great Britain

The number of cattle herds placed under movement restrictions in Great Britain (GB) due to the suspected presence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has progressively increased over the past 25 years despite an intensive and costly test-and-slaughter control program. Around 38% of herds that clear movement restrictions experience a recurrent incident (breakdown) within 24 months, suggesting that infection may be persisting within herds. Reactivity to tuberculin, the basis of diagnostic testing, is dependent on the time from infection. Thus, testing efficiency varies between outbreaks, depending on weight of transmission and cannot be directly estimated. In this paper, we use Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to parameterize two within-herd transmission models within a rigorous inferential framework. Previous within-herd models of bTB have relied on ad-hoc methods of parameterization and used a single model structure (SORI) where animals are assumed to become detectable by testing before they become infectious. We study such a conventional within-herd model of bTB and an alternative model, motivated by recent animal challenge studies, where there is no period of epidemiological latency before animals become infectious (SOR). Under both models we estimate that cattle-to-cattle transmission rates are non-linearly density dependent. The basic reproductive ratio for our conventional within-herd model, estimated for scenarios with no statutory controls, increases from 1.5 (0.26–4.9; 95% CI) in a herd of 30 cattle up to 4.9 (0.99–14.0) in a herd of 400. Under this model we estimate that 50% (33–67) of recurrent breakdowns in Britain can be attributed to infection missed by tuberculin testing. However this figure falls to 24% (11–42) of recurrent breakdowns under our alternative model. Under both models the estimated extrinsic force of infection increases with the burden of missed infection. Hence, improved herd-level testing is unlikely to reduce recurrence unless this extrinsic infectious pressure is simultaneously addressed.     

Estimating realistic costs for strategic management planning of invasive species eradications on islands

Environmental managers regularly face decisions about how to counteract threats. These decisions require an understanding of both the conservation benefits and economic costs of candidate actions. However, transparent frameworks for how to accurately calculate costs for management are rare. We worked with island managers in Australia to develop eradication protocols for six invasive species- four mammals and two weeds. We used the protocols to create an accounting framework for invasive species eradications to produce realistic cost estimates for eradications across multiple locations. We also used our models to test common cost assumptions: (1) that costs scale linearly with area, (2) that terrain does not influence costs, and (3) that eradication costs stay constant through time. By explicating testing assumptions, we found that costs largely scaled linearly with area, that terrain influences costs, and that costs decline as populations decline in response to ongoing management. Estimated mammal eradication costs were driven in large part by the area of an island and the cost of transport. However, when area alone was used as a proxy for costs, the calculated costs deviated from our modelled costs by 40–56%. Weed eradication cost estimates were driven by the size and density of an infestation as well as the terrain of the island, with the effect of terrain becoming more pronounced as area to be treated increased. We provide a method to calculate realistic costs across several sites, which can be used to guide strategic management decision-making, including prioritisation, and on-ground management actions.     

Modelling the damage costs of invasive alien species

Biological Invasions - The rate of biological invasions is growing unprecedentedly, threatening ecological and socioeconomic systems worldwide. Quantitative understandings of invasion temporal...     

Estimating species richness from quadrat sampling data: a general approach

We consider the problem of estimating the number of species (denoted by S) of a biological community located in a region divided into n quadrats. To address this question, different hierarchical parametric approaches have been recently developed. Despite a detailed modeling of the underlying biological processes, they all have some limitations. Indeed, some assume that n is theoretically infinite; as a result, n and the sampling fraction are not a part of such models. Others require some prior information on S to be efficiently implemented. Our approach is more general in that it applies without limitation on the size of n, and it can be used in the presence, as well as in the absence, of prior information on S. Moreover, it can be viewed as an extension of the approach of Dorazio and Royle (2005, Journal of the American Statistical Association 100, 389-398) in that n is a part of the model and a prior distribution is placed on S. Despite serious computational difficulties, we have perfected an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, which allows us to obtain the Bayesian estimate of S. We illustrate our approach by estimating the number of species of a bird community located in a forest.     

A phylogenetic approach to species delimitation in freshwater Gastrotricha from Sweden

Gastrotricha is a cosmopolitan group of aquatic invertebrates. To date, approximately 765 species have been described. This study is the first to deal with species delimitation and cryptic species of freshwater Gastrotricha. Three commonly encountered species, Heterolepidoderma ocellatum, Lepidochaetus zelinkai, and Lepidodermella squamata, are investigated for cryptic speciation. Most of the material is based on Swedish specimens but closely related species from other parts of the world are also included. Taxonomic revisions are supported by phylogenies based on 18S rRNA, 28S rRNA, and COI mtDNA of freshwater Chaetonotidae from several genera and inferred from Bayesian and maximum likelihood approaches. Heterolepidoderma ocellatum f. sphagnophilum is raised to species level, under the name H. acidophilum n. sp. Moreover, genetic data based on COI indicate large variation between two morphologically very similar groups of Lepidodermella squamata. The extent of cryptic speciation in L. zelinkai appears low. Based on the phylogenetic hypothesis presented in this article, the new species, Lepidodermella intermedia n. sp., from northern Sweden is also described. The phylogenetic hypothesis generated shows that Chaetonotidae is a non-monophyletic group.     

A simple approach to optimal control of invasive species

The problem of invasive species and their control is one of the most pressing applied issues in ecology today. We developed simple approaches based on linear programming for determining the optimal removal strategies of different stage or age classes for control of invasive species that are still in a density-independent phase of growth. We illustrate the application of this method to the specific example of invasive Spartina alterniflora in Willapa Bay, WA. For all such systems, linear programming shows in general that the optimal strategy in any time step is to prioritize removal of a single age or stage class. The optimal strategy adjusts which class is the focus of control through time and can be much more cost effective than prioritizing removal of the same stage class each year.     

A simple approach to optimal control of invasive species

The problem of invasive species and their control is one of the most pressing applied issues in ecology today. We developed simple approaches based on linear programming for determining the optimal removal strategies of different stage or age classes for control of invasive species that are still in a density-independent phase of growth. We illustrate the application of this method to the specific example of invasive Spartina alterniflora in Willapa Bay, WA. For all such systems, linear programming shows in general that the optimal strategy in any time step is to prioritize removal of a single age or stage class. The optimal strategy adjusts which class is the focus of control through time and can be much more cost effective than prioritizing removal of the same stage class each year.     

Distribution of the species of rough periwinkle (Littorina) in Great Britain

The status of the four currently recognised species in the Littorina saxatilis species-complex, i.e. Littorina nigrolineata Gray, L. arcana Hannaford Ellis, L. saxatilis (Olivi) and L. neglecta Bean is reviewed briefly, with notes on their characteristic features and location on the shore. Since the taxonomy of these rough periwinkles has only become stable relatively recently much of the previously published information on distribution is of little or no use. In this paper their distribution around the coastline of England and Wales (with some notes on Scotland) is described and discussed. L. saxatilis is found in a wide range of habitats from exposed peninsulas to estuaries on all shores where there is a suitable rocky or stony substrate; also in salt marsh pools. L. arcana has a more restricted distribution and is notably absent along much of the south English coast, central Cardigan Bay and possibly northern Scotland; it is not found in estuaries. L. nigrolineata has an even more restricted distribution, although it occurs both on exposed coasts and in estuaries; it has only been found by us in one locality on the east coast. L. neglecta is probably fairly widely distributed but we have few details so far. The implications of the different patterns of distribution are discussed.     

Developing an approach to defining the potential distributions of invasive plant species: a case study of Hakea species in South Africa

Aim  Models of the potential distributions of invading species have to deal with a number of issues. The key one is the high likelihood that the absence of an invading species in an area is a false absence because it may not have invaded that area yet, or that it may not have been detected. This paper develops an approach for screening pseudo-absences in a way that is logical and defensible.
Innovation  The step-wise approach involves: (1) screening environmental variables to identify those most likely to indicate conditions where the species cannot invade; (2) identifying and selecting the most likely limiting variables; (3) using these to define the limits of its invasion potential; and (4) selecting points outside these limits as true absence records for input into species distribution models.
This approach was adopted and used for the study of three prominent Hakea species in South Africa. Models with and without the false absence records were compared. Two rainfall variables and the mean minimum temperature of the coldest month were the strongest predictors of potential distributions. Models which excluded false absences predicted that more of the potential distribution would have a high invasion potential than those which included them.
Main conclusions  The approach of applying a priori knowledge can be useful in refining the potential distribution of a species by excluding pseudo-absence records which are likely to be due to the species not having invaded an area yet or being undetected. The differences between the potential distributions predicted by the different models convey more information than making a single prediction, albeit a consensus model. The robustness of this approach depends strongly on an adequate knowledge of the ecology, invasion history and current distribution of that species.     

An alien approach to invasive species: objectivity and society in invasion biology

Several authors have recently argued that invasion biologists should adopt a more objective and dispassionate stance towards invasive species. Brown and Sax (Austral Ecol 29:530–536, 2004; Austral Ecol 30:481–483, 2005) assert that invasion biologists risk their objectivity, “commit the naturalist fallacy” or “embark on a slippery slope” with engaged concern about invasive species. Elsewhere, Colautti and MacIsaac (Divers Distrib 10:135–141, 2004) propose a neutral language for invasion biology, one that insulates scientific from popular discussion about invasive species. While there is certainly hyperbole about the effects of some invasive species, the type of objectivity promoted in these papers may often be inappropriate for invasion biology. It implies a policy of non-action that is inconsistent with the conservation values of many invasion biologists. To engage these values, invasion biologists can adopt deliberative methods for environmental problem-solving that involve stakeholders in their research design and which still promote high standards of scientific rigor.     

Estimating similarity of communities: a parametric approach to spatio‐temporal analysis of species diversity

Several stochastic models with environmental noise generate spatio‐temporal Gaussian fields of log densities for the species in a community. Combinations of such models for many species often lead to lognormal species abundance distributions. In spatio‐temporal analysis it is often realistic to assume that the same species are expected to occur at different times and/or locations because extinctions are rare events. Spatial and temporal β‐diversity can then be analyzed by studying pairs of communities at different times or locations defined by a bivariate lognormal species abundance model in which a single correlation occurs. This correlation, which is a measure of similarity between two communities, can be estimated from samples even if the sampling intensities vary and are unknown, using the bivariate Poisson lognormal distribution. The estimators are approximately unbiased, although each specific correlation may be rather uncertain when the sampling effort is low with only a small fraction of the species represented in the samples. An important characteristic of this community correlation is that it relates to the classical Jaccard‐ or the Sørensen‐indices of similarity based on the number of species present or absent in two communities. However, these indices calculated from samples of species in a community do not necessarily reflect similarity of the communities because the observed number of species depends strongly on the sampling intensities. Thus, we propose that our community correlation should be considered as an alternative to these indices when comparing similarity of communities. We illustrate the application of the correlation method by computing the similarity between temperate bird communities.     

The ixodid tick species attaching to domestic dogs and cats in Great Britain and Ireland

The species of ixodid ticks, attached to dogs and cats presented to veterinary practices in Great Britain and Ireland were identified. Most host animals carried only one tick species with Ixodes ricinus Linné (Acari: Ixodidae) being the most common, identified on 52% of animals, Ixodes hexagonus Leach (Acari: Ixodidae) the second most common (on 39%) and Ixodes canisuga Johnston (Acari: Ixodidae) the third most common (on 11%). A significantly higher proportion of dogs than cats carried I. ricinus, while I. hexagonus was more frequently carried by cats. One animal carried a single specimen of Haemaphysalis punctata Canestrini & Fanzago (Acari: Ixodidae), one carried a Dermacentor reticulatus Fabricius (Acari: Ixodidae) but none carried Rhipicephalus sanguineus Latreille (Acari: Ixodidae). This indicates that the latter two species, vectors of 'exotic' tick-borne diseases, remain at low densities in Great Britain and Ireland. Retrospective information on exposure of the animals to different habitats and geographic regions was collected by questionnaire and subject to contingency table and logistic regression analysis. Woodlands and moorlands were habitats significantly associated with I. ricinus attachment. Exposure to urban parks was significantly associated with I. hexagonus attachment and exposure to boarding kennels and catteries was significantly associated with I. canisuga attachment. Ixodes hexagonus, rather than I. ricinus, was the ixodid tick species most likely to be encountered by urban populations of dogs and cats and, by inference, possibly also humans. The implications of these findings, for the transmission of tick-borne pathogens to dogs, cats and humans are discussed.     

The potential efficacy and application of freshwater and hypersaline immersion to control the spread of a marine invasive species

Introduced into New Zealand waters in 2008, the polychaete worm Sabella spallanzanii (Gmelin, 1791) is a marine invasive species with potential for significant ecological and economic impact. Within New Zealand, efforts to cope with this pest have focused on containment as efficacious control methods are in their infancy. To remedy this, we tested the efficacy of hyper-saline (50‰) and hypo-saline (0‰) baths as a potential control method for this species. Specimens of S. spallanzanii were collected from within the Auckland region and exposed to salinity treatments for up to 1440 min (24 h) and mortality rates were compared using LT₅₀ i.e. number of minutes taken for 50% of worms to die. Specimens subjected to hypo-saline conditions resulted in an LT₅₀ of 31.0 min compared to 132.0 min for hyper-saline conditions. Accordingly, hypo-saline dips have potential as an environmentally safe and cost-effective management method for maintenance of recreational vessels and other marine structures (e.g. aquaculture gear and shellfish stocks) that are heavily fouled with S. spallanzanii.     

Assessing invasive plant infestation and disturbance gradients in a freshwater wetland using a GIScience approach

The assessment of aquatic ecosystems requires information on biological and disturbance gradients in order to evaluate quality. As a result decision makers need improved monitoring tools for characterizing relationships between invasive species infestation and disturbance to make informed choices regarding wetland condition and management plans. The overarching goal of this research was to assess invasive plant infestation and disturbance gradients using a GIScience approach. The study was conducted in a fresh-water, coastal wetland in the Muskegon River watershed, Michigan, USA. Airborne hyperspectral imagery (20 bands, 440–880 nm) was classified for Phragmites australis distribution using the Spectral Angle Mapper algorithm. Indicator semivariograms were utilized to define landscape structure and associated spatial scales, and assist in creating a transect scheme to generate landscape pattern metrics quantifying valued ecosystem attributes. Hydrological modifications, as measured by an area-weighted fractal dimension index, served as a proxy for human disturbance and was found to moderately influence Phragmites percent cover (R ² = 0.4, n = 40), mean patch size (R ² = 0.5), and patch shape (R ² = 0.5). A general conclusion was that increased hydrological disturbances were correlated with increased infestation magnitude. The systematic approach executed in this study outlined how geospatial monitoring tools can be used as an assessment framework to provide more meaningful information that lends itself to comprehensive wetlands assessment.     

Revisiting the use of the invasive species concept: An empirical approach

Invasion science has not been developed without controversies. Two questions that are still unsolved are: what is an invasive species?, and are invasive species an inherent conservation problem? These questions have led to discussions about effects versus origins. In contrast to the definitional problems, a unified framework describing invasion as a step‐by‐step process has been widely accepted. I conducted a bibliographic search with two separate databases searching for (i) evidence of less use of controversial terms over time; (ii) how many articles defined ‘invasive species’; (iii) the criteria used to define a species as invasive; and (iv) in which stage of the invasion continuum were species labelled as invasive located. My results show that controversial terms are widely used, that authors rarely define ‘invasive species’ and, often, it is very complicated to determine which criterion they used. In addition, only a fraction of the species labelled as invasive could be classified as such according to the unified framework of invasion stages. This is not a merely semantic issue, because invasive is a strong and value‐laden term that is used to guide environmental agendas. The uncritical use of a key concept could hamper research, complicate communication among peers and produce mixed results.     

Use of isoenzyme and protein phenotypes to discriminate between six Pratylenchus species from Great Britain

Six species of Pratylenchus indigenous to Great Britain, P. crenatus, P. fallax, P. neglectus, P. penetrans, P. pinguicaudatus and P. thornei were analysed by slab gel electrophoresis to compare protein patterns and isoenzyme phenotypes of esterase, glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase, isocitrate dehydrogenase, phosphoglucose isomerase and phosphoglucomutase. Multiple electromorphs were obtained from all enzymes examined. The results demonstrated that isoenzyme phenotypes are useful to supplement the morphological characterisation of these nematode species. Pair-wise comparisons of the six species were performed giving coefficients of similarity in the range 11–41%. A dendrogram of the six species, generated from the five enzyme banding patterns, gave two groups: group 1 contained P. pinguicaudatus, P. fallax and P. thornei and group 2 contained P. penetrans, P. neglectus and P. crenatus.