Behavioural social choice: a status report

Behavioural social choice has been proposed as a social choice parallel to seminal developments in other decision sciences, such as behavioural decision theory, behavioural economics, behavioural finance and behavioural game theory. Behavioural paradigms compare how rational actors should make certain types of decisions with how real decision makers behave empirically. We highlight that important theoretical predictions in social choice theory change dramatically under even minute violations of standard assumptions. Empirical data violate those critical assumptions. We argue that the nature of preference distributions in electorates is ultimately an empirical question, which social choice theory has often neglected. We also emphasize important insights for research on decision making by individuals. When researchers aggregate individual choice behaviour in laboratory experiments to report summary statistics, they are implicitly applying social choice rules. Thus, they should be aware of the potential for aggregation paradoxes. We hypothesize that such problems may substantially mar the conclusions of a number of (sometimes seminal) papers in behavioural decision research.     

Behavioural syndromes in Merriam's kangaroo rats (Dipodomys merriami): a test of competing hypotheses

Behavioural syndromes, correlations of behaviours conceptually analogous to personalities, have been a topic of recent attention due to their potential to explain trade-offs in behavioural responses, apparently maladaptive behaviour and limits to plasticity. Using Merriam's kangaroo rats (Dipodomys merriami), we assessed the explanatory power and generality of hypothesized syndrome structures derived from the literature and the natural history of the species. Several aspects of functionally distinct behavioural responses of D. merriami were quantified. Syndrome structures were compared using structural equation modelling and model selection procedures. A domain-general behavioural syndrome incorporating cross-functional relationships between measures of boldness, agonistic behaviour, flexibility and food hoarding best explained the data. This pattern suggests that D. merriami behaviours should not be viewed as discrete elements but as components of a multivariate landscape. Our results support arguments that a lack of independence between behaviours may be a general aspect of behavioural phenotypes and suggest that the ability of D. merriami's behaviour to respond to selection may be constrained by underlying connections.     

Competition avoidance drives individual differences in response to a changing food resource in sticklebacks

Within the same population, individuals often differ in how they respond to changes in their environment. A recent series of models predicts that competition in a heterogeneous environment might promote between‐individual variation in behavioural plasticity. We tested groups of sticklebacks in patchy foraging environments that differed in the level of competition. We also tested the same individuals across two different social groups and while alone to determine the social environment's influence on behavioural plasticity. In support of model predictions, individuals consistently differed in behavioural plasticity when the presence of conspecifics influenced the potential payoffs of a foraging opportunity. Whether individuals maintained their level of behavioural plasticity when placed in a new social group depended on the environmental heterogeneity. By explicitly testing predictions of recent theoretical models, we provide evidence for the types of ecological conditions under which we would expect, and not expect, variation in behavioural plasticity to be favoured.     

Colour spaces in ecology and evolutionary biology

The recognition that animals sense the world in a different way than we do has unlocked important lines of research in ecology and evolutionary biology. In practice, the subjective study of natural stimuli has been permitted by perceptual spaces, which are graphical models of how stimuli are perceived by a given animal. Because colour vision is arguably the best‐known sensory modality in most animals, a diversity of colour spaces are now available to visual ecologists, ranging from generalist and basic models allowing rough but robust predictions on colour perception, to species‐specific, more complex models giving accurate but context‐dependent predictions. Selecting among these models is most often influenced by historical contingencies that have associated models to specific questions and organisms; however, these associations are not always optimal. The aim of this review is to provide visual ecologists with a critical perspective on how models of colour space are built, how well they perform and where their main limitations are with regard to their most frequent uses in ecology and evolutionary biology. We propose a classification of models based on their complexity, defined as whether and how they model the mechanisms of chromatic adaptation and receptor opponency, the nonlinear association between the stimulus and its perception, and whether or not models have been fitted to experimental data. Then, we review the effect of modelling these mechanisms on predictions of colour detection and discrimination, colour conspicuousness, colour diversity and diversification, and for comparing the perception of colour traits between distinct perceivers. While a few rules emerge (e.g. opponent log–linear models should be preferred when analysing very distinct colours), in general model parameters still have poorly known effects. Colour spaces have nonetheless permitted significant advances in ecology and evolutionary biology, and more progress is expected if ecologists compare results between models and perform behavioural experiments more routinely. Such an approach would further contribute to a better understanding of colour vision and its links to the behavioural ecology of animals. While visual ecology is essentially a transfer of knowledge from visual sciences to evolutionary ecology, we hope that the discipline will benefit both fields more evenly in the future.     

A Generic Individual-Based Spatially Explicit Model as a Novel Tool for Investigating Insect-Plant Interactions: A Case Study of the Behavioural Ecology of Frugivorous Tephritidae

Computational modelling of mechanisms underlying processes in the real world can be of great value in understanding complex biological behaviours. Uptake in general biology and ecology has been rapid. However, it often requires specific data sets that are overly costly in time and resources to collect. The aim of the current study was to test whether a generic behavioural ecology model constructed using published data could give realistic outputs for individual species. An individual-based model was developed using the Pattern-Oriented Modelling (POM) strategy and protocol, based on behavioural rules associated with insect movement choices. Frugivorous Tephritidae (fruit flies) were chosen because of economic significance in global agriculture and the multiple published data sets available for a range of species. The Queensland fruit fly (Qfly), Bactrocera tryoni, was identified as a suitable individual species for testing. Plant canopies with modified architecture were used to run predictive simulations. A field study was then conducted to validate our model predictions on how plant architecture affects fruit flies’ behaviours. Characteristics of plant architecture such as different shapes, e.g., closed-canopy and vase-shaped, affected fly movement patterns and time spent on host fruit. The number of visits to host fruit also differed between the edge and centre in closed-canopy plants. Compared to plant architecture, host fruit has less contribution to effects on flies’ movement patterns. The results from this model, combined with our field study and published empirical data suggest that placing fly traps in the upper canopy at the edge should work best. Such a modelling approach allows rapid testing of ideas about organismal interactions with environmental substrates in silico rather than in vivo, to generate new perspectives. Using published data provides a saving in time and resources. Adjustments for specific questions can be achieved by refinement of parameters based on targeted experiments.     

Phase-locked responses in the Limulus lateral eye. Theoretical and experimental investigation.

The 1:1 phase locking of the neural discharge to sinusoidally modulated stimuli was investigated both theoretically and experimentally. On the theoretical side, a neural encoder model, the self-inhibited leaky integrator, was considered, and the phase of the locked impulse was computed for each frequency in the locking range by imposing the condition that the "leaky integral" u(t) of the driving signal should reach the threshold for the first time one stimulus period after the preceding impulse. As u(t) can be a nonmonotonic function, this approach leads to results that sometimes differ from those reported in the literature. It turns out that the phase excursion is often much smaller than the values of about 180 degrees predicted from previous analysis. Moreover, our analysis shows a peculiar effect; the phase locking frequency range narrows when the input modulation depth increases. The theoretical predictions are then compared with phase-locked discharge patterns recorded from visual cells of the Limulus lateral eye, stimulated by sinusoidally modulated light or depolarizing current. The phases of the locked spikes at each of a number of modulation frequencies have been measured. The predictions offered by the model fit the experimental data, although there are some difficulties in determining the effective driving signal.     

Pitfalls in experiments testing predictions from sperm competition theory

As females of many species mate with more than one male, ejaculates often face competition from the sperm of other males. In recent years, numerous papers have been published on theoretical predictions of evolutionary, behavioural and physiological responses to variation in the strength of sperm competition (SC). These theoretical predictions have also been extensively tested. However, although predictions from SC theory are relatively straightforward, extra caution has to be paid in the design of experiments testing them. One difficulty is for example to disentangle immediate and mean SC risk and intensity. Without carefully designed experiments, it is also very easy to simultaneously increase SC risk and the probability of intense SC--a situation for which we currently have no clear predictions, as the theoretical models to date only assume variation in either SC risk or intensity. In this paper, we discuss these and some other pitfalls related to manipulations of SC risk and intensity and suggest how to avoid them.     

Phenomenological vs. biophysical models of thermal stress in aquatic eggs

Predicting species responses to climate change is a central challenge in ecology. These predictions are often based on lab‐derived phenomenological relationships between temperature and fitness metrics. We tested one of these relationships using the embryonic stage of a Chinook salmon population. We parameterised the model with laboratory data, applied it to predict survival in the field, and found that it significantly underestimated field‐derived estimates of thermal mortality. We used a biophysical model based on mass transfer theory to show that the discrepancy was due to the differences in water flow velocities between the lab and the field. This mechanistic approach provides testable predictions for how the thermal tolerance of embryos depends on egg size and flow velocity of the surrounding water. We found support for these predictions across more than 180 fish species, suggesting that flow and temperature mediated oxygen limitation is a general mechanism underlying the thermal tolerance of embryos.     

Hypothesis testing in animal social networks

Behavioural ecologists are increasingly using social network analysis to describe the social organisation of animal populations and to test hypotheses. However, the statistical analysis of network data presents a number of challenges. In particular the non-independent nature of the data violates the assumptions of many common statistical approaches. In our opinion there is currently confusion and uncertainty amongst behavioural ecologists concerning the potential pitfalls when hypotheses testing using social network data. Here we review what we consider to be key considerations associated with the analysis of animal social networks and provide a practical guide to the use of null models based on randomisation to control for structure and non-independence in the data.     

Spatial dynamics of adaptive sex ratios

According to Fisherian sex allocation theory, parents that can adjust their offspring sex ratio in response to skews in population sex ratio will maximize their fitness over parents lacking this ability. There is good evidence that adaptive sex ratio adjustment occurs in many natural populations, but deviations from theoretical predictions have also been observed. These anomalies may be more apparent than real. When the spatial dimension of sex ratio variation is ignored, then a mismatch between empirical data and theoretical predictions based on panmictic mating is to be expected. We illustrate this with data on human sex ratio variation in 21 preindustrial populations, and with a cellular automaton model built to obey Fisherian sex allocation rules. The results from the model generally match with the data. When information about the ambient sex ratio is limited, then the sex allocation decisions may appear locally maladaptive. In general, the results indicate that Fisher's sex-ratio theory may have greater explanatory power than previously thought.     

Breed-typical behaviour in dogs—Historical remnants or recent constructs?

Dogs show considerable variation in morphology, genetics and behaviour caused by long periods of artificial selection. This is evident in the large number of breeds we have today. Behavioural differences among breeds have often been regarded as remnants from past selection during the breeds’ origin. However, the selection in many breeds has, during the last decades, gone through great changes, which could have influenced breed-typical behaviour. In order to investigate this, breed differences were studied using data from a standardized behavioural test from 13,097 dogs of 31 breeds from the Swedish dog population. Based on the test results, breed scores were calculated for four behavioural traits: playfulness, curiosity/fearlessness, sociability and aggressiveness. These traits have previously been found to be stable and valid, and hence regarded as personality traits in the dog. The present results suggested large differences between breeds in all of the investigated traits, even though there were within-breed variations. No relationships between breed-characteristic behaviour and function in the breeds’ origins were found. Instead, there were correlations between breed scores and current use of the breeding stocks, which suggest that selection in the recent past has affected breed-typical behaviour. The breeds’ use in dog shows, the dominating use in general, was negatively correlated with all investigated traits, both in sires and in dams. In contrast, use in Working dog trials was positively correlated with playfulness and aggressiveness in sires. Thus, these results suggest that selection for dog show use is positively correlated with social and non-social fearfulness, and negatively with playfulness, curiosity in potentially threatening situations and aggressiveness, whereas selection for Working dog use is positively correlated with playfulness and aggressiveness. Furthermore, correlation analyses show that popular breeds have higher sociability and playfulness scores than less popular breeds, suggesting that a positive attitude towards strangers is an important characteristic of a functional pet dog and desirable by dog owners. This indicates that selection towards use in dog shows may be in conflict with pet dog selection. Furthermore, these results suggest that basic dimensions of dog behaviour can be changed when selection pressure changes, and that the domestication of the dog still is in progress. A standardized behavioural test, like the one used in this study, is suggested to be highly useful as a tool in dog breeding programs.     

Consistent Selection towards Low Activity Phenotypes When Catchability Depends on Encounters among Human Predators and Fish

Together with life-history and underlying physiology, the behavioural variability among fish is one of the three main trait axes that determines the vulnerability to fishing. However, there are only a few studies that have systematically investigated the strength and direction of selection acting on behavioural traits. Using in situ fish behaviour revealed by telemetry techniques as input, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) that simulated the Lagrangian trajectory of prey (fish) moving within a confined home range (HR). Fishers exhibiting various prototypical fishing styles targeted these fish in the model. We initially hypothesised that more active and more explorative individuals would be systematically removed under all fished conditions, in turn creating negative selection differentials on low activity phenotypes and maybe on small HR. Our results partly supported these general predictions. Standardised selection differentials were, on average, more negative on HR than on activity. However, in many simulation runs, positive selection pressures on HR were also identified, which resulted from the stochastic properties of the fishes’ movement and its interaction with the human predator. In contrast, there was a consistent negative selection on activity under all types of fishing styles. Therefore, in situations where catchability depends on spatial encounters between human predators and fish, we would predict a consistent selection towards low activity phenotypes and have less faith in the direction of the selection on HR size. Our study is the first theoretical investigation on the direction of fishery-induced selection of behaviour using passive fishing gears. The few empirical studies where catchability of fish was measured in relation to passive fishing techniques, such as gill-nets, traps or recreational fishing, support our predictions that fish in highly exploited situations are, on average, characterised by low swimming activity, stemming, in part, from negative selection on swimming activity.     

Do mothers prefer helpers or smaller litters? Birth sex ratio and litter size adjustment in cotton-top tamarins (Saguinus oedipus)

Sex allocation theory has been a remarkably productive field in behavioral ecology with empirical evidence regularly supporting quantitative theoretical predictions. Across mammals in general and primates in particular, however, support for the various hypotheses has been more equivocal. Population‐level sex ratio biases have often been interpreted as supportive, but evidence for small‐scale facultative adjustment has rarely been found. The helper repayment (HR) also named the local resource enhancement (LRE) hypothesis predicts that, in cooperatively breeding species, mothers invest more in the sex which assists with rearing future offspring and that this bias will be more pronounced in mothers who require extra assistance (i.e., due to inexperience or a lack of available alloparents). We tested these hypotheses in captive cotton‐top tamarins (Saguinus oedipus) utilizing the international studbook and birth records obtained through a questionnaire from ISIS‐registered institutions. Infant sex, litter size, mother's age, parity, and group composition (presence of nonreproductive subordinate males and females) were determined from these records. The HR hypothesis was supported over the entire population, which was significantly biased toward males (the “helpful” sex). We found little support for helper repayment at the individual level, as primiparous females and those in groups without alloparents did not exhibit more extreme tendencies to produce male infants. Primiparous females were, however, more likely to produce singleton litters. Singleton births were more likely to be male, which suggests that there may be an interaction between litter size adjustment and sex allocation. This may be interpreted as supportive of the HR hypothesis, but alternative explanations at both the proximate and ultimate levels are possible. These possibilities warrant further consideration when attempting to understand the ambiguous results of primate sex ratio studies so far.     

Seascape genetics: a coupled oceanographic-genetic model predicts population structure of Caribbean corals

Population genetics is a powerful tool for measuring important larval connections between marine populations [1-4]. Similarly, oceanographic models based on environmental data can simulate particle movements in ocean currents and make quantitative estimates of larval connections between populations possible [5-9]. However, these two powerful approaches have remained disconnected because no general models currently provide a means of directly comparing dispersal predictions with empirical genetic data (except, see [10]). In addition, previous genetic models have considered relatively simple dispersal scenarios that are often unrealistic for marine larvae [11-15], and recent landscape genetic models have yet to be applied in a marine context [16-20]. We have developed a genetic model that uses connectivity estimates from oceanographic models to predict genetic patterns resulting from larval dispersal in a Caribbean coral. We then compare the predictions to empirical data for threatened staghorn corals. Our coupled oceanographic-genetic model predicts many of the patterns observed in this and other empirical datasets; such patterns include the isolation of the Bahamas and an east-west divergence near Puerto Rico [3, 21-23]. This new approach provides both a valuable tool for predicting genetic structure in marine populations and a means of explicitly testing these predictions with empirical data.     

Laterality and flight: concurrent tests of side-bias and optimality in flying tree swallows

Behavioural side-bias occurs in many vertebrates, including birds as a result of hemispheric specialization and can be advantageous by improving response times to sudden stimuli and efficiency in multi-tasking. However, behavioural side-bias can lead to morphological asymmetries resulting in reduced performance for specific activities. For flying animals, wing asymmetry is particularly costly and it is unclear if behavioural side-biases will be expressed in flight; the benefits of quick response time afforded by side-biases must be balanced against the costs of less efficient flight due to the morphological asymmetry side-biases may incur. Thus, competing constraints could lead to context-dependent expression or suppression of side-bias in flight. In repeated flight trials through an outdoor tunnel with obstacles, tree swallows (Tachycineta bicolor) preferred larger openings, but we did not detect either individual or population-level side-biases. Thus, while observed behavioural side-biases during substrate-foraging and copulation are common in birds, we did not see such side-bias expressed in obstacle avoidance behaviour in flight. This finding highlights the importance of behavioural context for investigations of side-bias and hemispheric laterality and suggests both proximate and ultimate trade-offs between species-specific cognitive ecology and flight biomechanics.     

A Bayesian hierarchical approach for combining case-control and prospective studies

Motivated by the absolute risk predictions required in medical decision making and patient counseling, we propose an approach for the combined analysis of case-control and prospective studies of disease risk factors. The approach is hierarchical to account for parameter heterogeneity among studies and among sampling units of the same study. It is based on modeling the retrospective distribution of the covariates given the disease outcome, a strategy that greatly simplifies both the combination of prospective and retrospective studies and the computation of Bayesian predictions in the hierarchical case-control context. Retrospective modeling differentiates our approach from most current strategies for inference on risk factors, which are based on the assumption of a specific prospective model. To ensure modeling flexibility, we propose using a mixture model for the retrospective distributions of the covariates. This leads to a general nonlinear regression family for the implied prospective likelihood. After introducing and motivating our proposal, we present simple results that highlight its relationship with existing approaches, develop Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for inference and prediction, and present an illustration using ovarian cancer data.     

A hybrid approach to survival model building using integration of clinical and molecular information in censored data

In medical society, the prognostic models, which use clinicopathologic features and predict prognosis after a certain treatment, have been externally validated and used in practice. In recent years, most research has focused on high dimensional genomic data and small sample sizes. Since clinically similar but molecularly heterogeneous tumors may produce different clinical outcomes, the combination of clinical and genomic information, which may be complementary, is crucial to improve the quality of prognostic predictions. However, there is a lack of an integrating scheme for clinic-genomic models due to the P ≥ N problem, in particular, for a parsimonious model. We propose a methodology to build a reduced yet accurate integrative model using a hybrid approach based on the Cox regression model, which uses several dimension reduction techniques, L? penalized maximum likelihood estimation (PMLE), and resampling methods to tackle the problem. The predictive accuracy of the modeling approach is assessed by several metrics via an independent and thorough scheme to compare competing methods. In breast cancer data studies on a metastasis and death event, we show that the proposed methodology can improve prediction accuracy and build a final model with a hybrid signature that is parsimonious when integrating both types of variables.     

The effects of sexual selection and life history on the genetic structure of redfronted lemur, Eulemur fulvus rufus, groups

We examined genetic consequences of basic predictions of life history and sexual selection theory in a wild population of redfronted lemurs. Because group living in lemurs evolved independently from other primates, and because polygynous lemurs deviate in several sexually selected traits from theoretical predictions, data on genetic correlates of their social and mating systems can make important contributions to studies of convergence in social evolution, but such data are not available from wild populations. We extracted DNA from tissue samples obtained from 59 animals living in Kirindy forest, Madagascar, and examined individual variability at several microsatellite loci and the mitochondrial D-loop. We found that closely related females of a single matriline formed the core of the four main study groups. Virtually all haplotypes of adult males differed from those of coresident females, and many male haplotypes were represented by only one or two individuals. Paternity analyses for infants from groups with detailed behavioural data revealed that a disproportionate share of infants were sired by the central, dominant male of a group, despite promiscuous mating. Extragroup paternities were not detected. The skew in male reproductive success cannot be reconciled with the lack of sexual dimorphism and the even adult sex ratios. We therefore conclude that these group-living lemurs converge with many other primates in sex-specific life history trajectories, including female philopatry and male dispersal, but that the observed skew in male reproductive success makes the apparent lack of adaptation to intrasexual selection in certain behavioural, demographic and morphological traits even more puzzling. Copyright 2002 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.