Genetic evidence on the demography of speciation in allopatric dolphin species

Under a neutral model, the stochastic lineage sorting that leads to gene monophyly proceeds slowly in large populations. Therefore, in many recent species with large population size, the genome will have mixed support for monophyly unless historical bottlenecks have accelerated coalescence. We use genealogical patterns in mitochondrial DNA and in introns of four nuclear loci to test for historical bottlenecks during the speciation and divergence of two temperate Lagenorhynchus dolphin species isolated by tropical Pacific waters (an antitropical distribution). Despite distinct morphologies, foraging behaviors, and mitochondrial DNAs, these dolphin species are polyphyletic at all four nuclear loci. The abundance of shared polymorphisms between these sister taxa is most consistent with the maintenance of large effective population sizes (5.09 x 10(4) to 10.9 x 10(4)) during 0.74-1.05 million years of divergence. A variety of population size histories are possible, however. We used gene tree coalescent probabilities to explore the rejection region for historical bottlenecks of different intensity given best estimates of effective population size under a strict isolation model of divergence. In L. obliquidens the data are incompatible with a colonization propagule of an effective size of 10 or fewer individuals. Although the ability to reject less extreme historical bottlenecks will require data from additional loci, the intermixed genealogical patterns observed between these dolphin sister species are highly probable only under an extended history of large population size. If similar demographic histories are inferred for other marine antitropical taxa, a parsimonious model for the Pleistocene origin of these distributions would not involve rare breaches of a constant dispersal barrier by small colonization propagules. Instead, a history of large population size in L. obliquidens and L. obscurus contributes to growing biological and environmental evidence that the equatorial barrier became permeable during glacial/interglacial cycles, leading to vicariant isolation of antitropical populations.     

Did the Pleistocene glaciations promote divergence? Tests of explicit refugial models in montane grasshopprers

There is a long-standing debate over whether or not the Pleistocene glaciations promoted speciation. While some models predict that extensive mixing of populations during interglacial expansion would have inhibited divergence, others postulate that divergence among allopatric glacial refuges or founder events during recolonization of previously glaciated areas would have promoted differentiation. Using a combination of traditional and coalescent based population genetic approaches, this study finds that the glaciations did not inhibit divergence among populations of the grasshopper Melanoplus oregonensis. Instead, drift associated with recolonization of previously glaciated areas, as well as divergence among multiple allopatric glacial refugia, have both contributed to differentiation in this montane grasshopper from the 'sky islands' of the northern Rocky Mountains. Significant population structure was detected by phylogenetic and FST analyses, including significant FST values among individual pairs of sky-island populations. In addition to clustering of haplotypes within populations, there is some evidence of regional phylogeographic structure, although none of the 'regional groups' form a monophyletic clade and there is a lack of concordance between the genealogical and geographical positions of some haplotypes. However, coalescent simulations confirm there is significant regional phylogeographic structure that most likely reflects divergence among multiple ancestral refugial populations, and indicate that it is very unlikely that the observed gene tree could have been produced by the fragmentation of a single widespread ancestral population. Thus, rather than inhibiting differentiation, the glaciations appear to have promoted population divergence in M. oregonensis, suggesting that they may have contributed to the radiation of Melanoplus species during the Pleistocene.     

Influence of gene flow on divergence dating – implications for the speciation history of Takydromus grass lizards

Dating the time of divergence and understanding speciation processes are central to the study of the evolutionary history of organisms but are notoriously difficult. The difficulty is largely rooted in variations in the ancestral population size or in the genealogy variation across loci. To depict the speciation processes and divergence histories of three monophyletic Takydromus species endemic to Taiwan, we sequenced 20 nuclear loci and combined with one mitochondrial locus published in GenBank. They were analysed by a multispecies coalescent approach within a Bayesian framework. Divergence dating based on the gene tree approach showed high variation among loci, and the divergence was estimated at an earlier date than when derived by the species‐tree approach. To test whether variations in the ancestral population size accounted for the majority of this variation, we conducted computer inferences using isolation‐with‐migration (IM) and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) frameworks. The results revealed that gene flow during the early stage of speciation was strongly favoured over the isolation model, and the initiation of the speciation process was far earlier than the dates estimated by gene‐ and species‐based divergence dating. Due to their limited dispersal ability, it is suggested that geographical isolation may have played a major role in the divergence of these Takydromus species. Nevertheless, this study reveals a more complex situation and demonstrates that gene flow during the speciation process cannot be overlooked and may have a great impact on divergence dating. By using multilocus data and incorporating Bayesian coalescence approaches, we provide a more biologically realistic framework for delineating the divergence history of Takydromus.     

Estimating a geographically explicit model of population divergence

Patterns of genetic variation can provide valuable insights for deciphering the relative roles of different evolutionary processes in species differentiation. However, population-genetic models for studying divergence in geographically structured species are generally lacking. Since these are the biogeographic settings where genetic drift is expected to predominate, not only are population-genetic tests of hypotheses in geographically structured species constrained, but generalizations about the evolutionary processes that promote species divergence may also be potentially biased. Here we estimate a population-divergence model in montane grasshoppers from the sky islands of the Rocky Mountains. Because this region was directly impacted by Pleistocene glaciation, both the displacement into glacial refugia and recolonization of montane habitats may contribute to differentiation. Building on the tradition of using information from the genealogical relationships of alleles to infer the geography of divergence, here the additional consideration of the process of gene-lineage sorting is used to obtain a quantitative estimate of population relationships and historical associations (i.e., a population tree) from the gene trees of five anonymous nuclear loci and one mitochondrial locus in the broadly distributed species Melanoplus oregonensis. Three different approaches are used to estimate a model of population divergence; this comparison allows us to evaluate specific methodological assumptions that influence the estimated history of divergence. A model of population divergence was identified that significantly fits the data better compared to the other approaches, based on per-site likelihood scores of the multiple loci, and that provides clues about how divergence proceeded in M. oregonensis during the dynamic Pleistocene. Unlike the approaches that either considered only the most recent coalescence (i.e., information from a single individual per population) or did not consider the pattern of coalescence in the gene genealogies, the population-divergence model that best fits the data was estimated by considering the pattern of gene lineage coalescence across multiple individuals, as well as loci. These results indicate that sampling of multiple individuals per population is critical to obtaining an accurate estimate of the history of divergence so that the signal of common ancestry can be separated from the confounding influence of gene flow-even though estimates suggest that gene flow is not a predominant factor structuring patterns of genetic variation across these sky island populations. They also suggest that the gene genealogies contain information about population relationships, despite the lack of complete sorting of gene lineages. What emerges from the analyses is a model of population divergence that incorporates both contemporary distributions and historical associations, and shows a latitudinal and regional structuring of populations reminiscent of population displacements into multiple glacial refugia. Because the population-divergence model itself is built upon the specific events shaping the history of M. oregonensis, it provides a framework for estimating additional population-genetic parameters relevant to understanding the processes governing differentiation in geographically structured species and avoids the problems of relying on overly simplified and inaccurate divergence models. The utility of these approaches, as well as the caveats and future improvements, for estimating population relationships and historical associations relevant to genetic analyses of geographically structured species are discussed.     

Tests of pleistocene speciation in montane grasshoppers (genus Melanoplus) from the sky islands of western North America

There has a been a resurgence of debate on whether the Pleistocene glaciations inhibited speciation. This study tests a model of Pleistocene speciation, estimating the phylogenetic relationships and divergence times of 10 species of montane grasshoppers, genus Melanoplus, using 1300 bp of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase I (COI). Based on average pairwise distances (corrected for multiple substitutions using Kimura's two-parameter model), all species appear to have originated within the Pleistocene. Sequence divergences between species are less than 4%, corresponding to divergence times less than 1.7 million years ago. Branching patterns among the species suggest that speciation was associated with more than one glacial-interglacial cycle. A likelihood-ratio test rejected a model of simultaneous species origins, the predicted branching pattern if species arose from the fragmentation of a widespread ancestor. These grasshoppers live in an area that was previously glaciated and, as inhabitants of the northern Rocky Mountain sky islands, underwent latitudinal and probably altitudinal shifts in distribution in response to climatic fluctuations. Given the repeated distributional shifts and range overlap of the taxa, there most likely has been ample opportunity for population mixing. However, despite periodic glacial cycles, with more than 10 major glaciations over the past million years and climatic fluctuations over as short a time scale as 10(3) to 10(4) years, the dynamic history of the Pleistocene did not preclude speciation. Although relationships among some taxa remain unresolved, these grasshopper species, even with their recent origins, exhibit genetic coherence and monophyletic or paraphyletic gene trees. The frequency of glacial cycles suggests that the speciation process must have been extremely rapid. These species of grasshoppers are morphologically very similar, differing primarily in the shape of the male genitalia. These characters are posited to be under sexual selection, may play an important role in reproductive isolation, and are known to diverge rapidly. This suggests the rapidity of evolution of reproductive isolation may determine whether species divergences occurred during the Pleistocene glaciations.     

Genealogical portraits of speciation in montane grasshoppers (genus Melanoplus) from the sky islands of the Rocky Mountains

Grasshoppers in the genus Melanoplus have undergone a radiation in the 'sky islands' of western North America, with many species originating during the Pleistocene. Despite their recent origins, phylogenetic analyses indicate that all the species exhibit monophyletic or paraphyletic gene trees. The objectives of this study were to determine whether the monophyletic genealogies are the result of a bottleneck at speciation and to investigate the extent to which the different phylogenetic states of eight species (i.e. monophyletic versus paraphyletic gene trees) can be ascribed to the effects of speciation. A coalescent simulation was used to test for a bottleneck at speciation in each species. The effective population sizes and demographic histories of species were compared across taxa to evaluate the possibility that the paraphyly versus monophyly of the species reflects differential rates of lineage loss rather than speciation mode. While coalescent analyses indicate that the monophyly of Melanoplus species might not be indicative of bottlenecks at speciation, the results suggest that the paraphyletic gene trees may reflect the demography of speciation, involving localized divergences in the ancestral species. With respect to different models of Pleistocene divergence, the data do not support a model of founder-effect speciation but are compatible with divergence in allopatric refugia.     

Ecological divergence combined with ancient allopatry in lizard populations from a small volcanic island

Population divergence and speciation are often explained by geographical isolation, but may also be possible under high gene flow due to strong ecology‐related differences in selection pressures. This study combines coalescent analyses of genetic data (11 microsatellite loci and 1 Kbp of mtDNA) and ecological modelling to examine the relative contributions of isolation and ecology to incipient speciation in the scincid lizard Chalcides sexlineatus within the volcanic island of Gran Canaria. Bayesian multispecies coalescent dating of within‐island genetic divergence of northern and southern populations showed correspondence with the timing of volcanic activity in the north of the island 1.5–3.0 Ma ago. Coalescent estimates of demographic changes reveal historical size increases in northern populations, consistent with expansions from a volcanic refuge. Nevertheless, ecological divergence is also supported. First, the two morphs showed non‐equivalence of ecological niches and species distribution modelling associated the northern morph with mesic habitat types and the southern morph with xeric habitat types. It seems likely that the colour morphs are associated with different antipredator strategies in the different habitats. Second, coalescent estimation of gene copy migration (based on microsatellites and mtDNA) suggest high rates from northern to southern morphs demonstrating the strength of ecology‐mediated selection pressures that maintain the divergent southern morph. Together, these findings underline the complexity of the speciation process by providing evidence for the combined effects of ecological divergence and ancient divergence in allopatry.     

Population genetics of speciation in two closely related wild tomatoes (Solanum section Lycopersicon)

We present a multilocus sequencing study to assess patterns of polymorphism and divergence in the closely related wild tomato species, Solanum peruvianum and S. chilense (Solanum section Lycopersicon, Solanaceae). The data set comprises seven mapped nuclear loci (approximately 9.3 kb of analyzed sequence across loci) and four local population samples per species that cover much of the species' range (between 80 and 88 sequenced alleles across both species). We employ the analytical framework of divergence population genetics (DPG) in evaluating the utility of the "isolation" model of speciation to explain observed patterns of polymorphism and divergence. Whereas the isolation model is not rejected by goodness-of-fit criteria established via coalescent simulations, patterns of intragenic linkage disequilibrium provide evidence for postdivergence gene flow at two of the seven loci. These results suggest that speciation occurred under residual gene flow, implying that natural selection is one of the evolutionary forces driving the divergence of these tomato species. This inference is fully consistent with their recent divergence, conservatively estimated to be 相似文献   

CALIBRATING DIVERGENCE TIMES ON SPECIES TREES VERSUS GENE TREES: IMPLICATIONS FOR SPECIATION HISTORY OF APHELOCOMA JAYS

Estimates of the timing of divergence are central to testing the underlying causes of speciation. Relaxed molecular clocks and fossil calibration have improved these estimates; however, these advances are implemented in the context of gene trees, which can overestimate divergence times. Here we couple recent innovations for dating speciation events with the analytical power of species trees, where multilocus data are considered in a coalescent context. Divergence times are estimated in the bird genus Aphelocoma to test whether speciation in these jays coincided with mountain uplift or glacial cycles. Gene trees and species trees show general agreement that diversification began in the Miocene amid mountain uplift. However, dates from the multilocus species tree are more recent, occurring predominately in the Pleistocene, consistent with theory that divergence times can be significantly overestimated with gene‐tree based approaches that do not correct for genetic divergence that predates speciation. In addition to coalescent stochasticity, Haldane's rule could account for some differences in timing estimates between mitochondrial DNA and nuclear genes. By incorporating a fossil calibration applied to the species tree, in addition to the process of gene lineage coalescence, the present approach provides a more biologically realistic framework for dating speciation events, and hence for testing the links between diversification and specific biogeographic and geologic events.     

Divergence in coloration and ecological speciation in the Anolis marmoratus species complex

Adaptive divergence in coloration is expected to produce reproductive isolation in species that use colourful signals in mate choice and species recognition. Indeed, many adaptive radiations are characterized by differentiation in colourful signals, suggesting that divergent selection acting on coloration may be an important component of speciation. Populations in the Anolis marmoratus species complex from the Caribbean island of Guadeloupe display striking divergence in the colour and pattern of adult males that occurs over small geographic distances, suggesting strong divergent selection. Here we test the hypothesis that divergence in coloration results in reduced gene flow among populations. We quantify variation in adult male coloration across a habitat gradient between mesic and xeric habitats, use a multilocus coalescent approach to infer historical demographic parameters of divergence, and examine gene flow and population structure using microsatellite variation. We find that colour variation evolved without geographic isolation and in the face of gene flow, consistent with strong divergent selection and that both ecological and sexual selection are implicated. However, we find no significant differentiation at microsatellite loci across populations, suggesting little reproductive isolation and high levels of contemporary gene exchange. Strong divergent selection on loci affecting coloration probably maintains clinal phenotypic variation despite high gene flow at neutral loci, supporting the notion of a porous genome in which adaptive portions of the genome remain fixed whereas neutral portions are homogenized by gene flow and recombination. We discuss the impact of these findings for studies of colour evolution and ecological speciation.     

Sexual selection drives speciation in an Amazonian frog

One proposed mechanism of speciation is divergent sexual selection, whereby divergence in female preferences and male signals results in behavioural isolation. Despite the appeal of this hypothesis, evidence for it remains inconclusive. Here, we present several lines of evidence that sexual selection is driving behavioural isolation and speciation among populations of an Amazonian frog (Physalaemus petersi). First, sexual selection has promoted divergence in male mating calls and female preferences for calls between neighbouring populations, resulting in strong behavioural isolation. Second, phylogenetic analysis indicates that populations have become fixed for alternative call types several times throughout the species' range, and coalescent analysis rejects genetic drift as a cause for this pattern, suggesting that this divergence is due to selection. Finally, gene flow estimated with microsatellite loci is an average of 30 times lower between populations with different call types than between populations separated by a similar geographical distance with the same call type, demonstrating genetic divergence and incipient speciation. Taken together, these data provide strong evidence that sexual selection is driving behavioural isolation and speciation, supporting sexual selection as a cause for speciation in the wild.     

HISTORICAL DIVERGENCE AND GENE FLOW: COALESCENT ANALYSES OF MITOCHONDRIAL,AUTOSOMAL AND SEX‐LINKED LOCI IN PASSERINA BUNTINGS

Quantifying the role of gene flow during the divergence of closely related species is crucial to understanding the process of speciation. We collected DNA sequence data from 20 loci (one mitochondrial, 13 autosomal, and six sex‐linked) for population samples of Lazuli Buntings (Passerina amoena) and Indigo Buntings (Passerina cyanea) (Aves: Cardinalidae) to test explicitly between a strict allopatric speciation model and a model in which divergence occurred despite postdivergence gene flow. Likelihood ratio tests of coalescent‐based population genetic parameter estimates indicated a strong signal of postdivergence gene flow and a strict allopatric speciation model was rejected. Analyses of partitioned datasets (mitochondrial, autosomal, and sex‐linked) suggest the overall gene flow patterns are driven primarily by autosomal gene flow, as there is no evidence of mitochondrial gene flow and we were unable to reject an allopatric speciation model for the sex‐linked data. This pattern is consistent with either a parapatric divergence model or repeated periods of allopatry with gene flow occurring via secondary contact. These results are consistent with the low fitness of female avian hybrids under Haldane's rule and demonstrate that sex‐linked loci likely are important in the initial generation of reproductive isolation, not just its maintenance.     

Inferring the evolutionary history of divergence despite gene flow in a lizard species,Scincella lateralis (Scincidae), composed of cryptic lineages

Although recent radiations are fruitful for studying the process of speciation, they are difficult to characterize and require the use of multiple loci and analytical methods that account for processes such as gene flow and genetic drift. Using multilocus sequence data, we combine hierarchical cluster analysis, coalescent species tree inference, and isolation‐with‐migration analysis to investigate evolutionary relationships among cryptic lineages of North American ground skinks. We also estimate the extent that gene flow has accompanied or followed diversification, and also attempt to account for and minimize the influence of gene flow when reconstructing relationships. The data best support seven largely parapatric populations that are broadly concordant with mitochondrial (mt)DNA phylogeography throughout most of the species range, although they fail to fully represent extensive mtDNA divergence along the Gulf Coast. Relationships within and among three broad geographical groups are well supported, despite evidence of gene flow among them. Rejection of an allopatric divergence model partially depends on the inclusion of samples from near parapatric boundaries in the analyses, suggesting that allopatric divergence followed by recent migration may best explain migration rate estimates. Accounting for geographical variation in patterns of gene flow can improve estimates of migration–divergence parameters and minimize the influence of contemporary gene flow on phylogenetic inference. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, ?? , ??–??.     

Genomic footprints of an old affair: Single nucleotide polymorphism data reveal historical hybridization and the subsequent evolution of reproductive barriers in two recently diverged grasshoppers with partly overlapping distributions

Secondary contact in close relatives can result in hybridization and the admixture of previously isolated gene pools. However, after an initial period of hybridization, reproductive isolation can evolve through different processes and lead to the interruption of gene flow and the completion of the speciation process. Omocestus minutissimus and O. uhagonii are two closely related grasshoppers with partially overlapping distributions in the Central System mountains of the Iberian Peninsula. To analyse spatial patterns of historical and/or contemporary hybridization between these two taxa and understand how species boundaries are maintained in the region of secondary contact, we sampled sympatric and allopatric populations of the two species and obtained genome‐wide single nucleotide polymorphism data using a restriction site‐associated DNA sequencing approach. We used Bayesian clustering analyses to test the hypothesis of contemporary hybridization in sympatric populations and employed a suite of phylogenomic approaches and a coalescent‐based simulation framework to evaluate alternative hypothetical scenarios of interspecific gene flow. Our analyses rejected the hypothesis of contemporary hybridization but revealed past introgression in the area where the distributions of the two species overlap. Overall, these results point to a scenario of historical gene flow after secondary contact followed by the evolution of reproductive isolation that currently prevents hybridization among sympatric populations.     

Demographic Divergence History of Pied Flycatcher and Collared Flycatcher Inferred from Whole-Genome Re-sequencing Data

Profound knowledge of demographic history is a prerequisite for the understanding and inference of processes involved in the evolution of population differentiation and speciation. Together with new coalescent-based methods, the recent availability of genome-wide data enables investigation of differentiation and divergence processes at unprecedented depth. We combined two powerful approaches, full Approximate Bayesian Computation analysis (ABC) and pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent modeling (PSMC), to reconstruct the demographic history of the split between two avian speciation model species, the pied flycatcher and collared flycatcher. Using whole-genome re-sequencing data from 20 individuals, we investigated 15 demographic models including different levels and patterns of gene flow, and changes in effective population size over time. ABC provided high support for recent (mode 0.3 my, range <0.7 my) species divergence, declines in effective population size of both species since their initial divergence, and unidirectional recent gene flow from pied flycatcher into collared flycatcher. The estimated divergence time and population size changes, supported by PSMC results, suggest that the ancestral species persisted through one of the glacial periods of middle Pleistocene and then split into two large populations that first increased in size before going through severe bottlenecks and expanding into their current ranges. Secondary contact appears to have been established after the last glacial maximum. The severity of the bottlenecks at the last glacial maximum is indicated by the discrepancy between current effective population sizes (20,000–80,000) and census sizes (5–50 million birds) of the two species. The recent divergence time challenges the supposition that avian speciation is a relatively slow process with extended times for intrinsic postzygotic reproductive barriers to evolve. Our study emphasizes the importance of using genome-wide data to unravel tangled demographic histories. Moreover, it constitutes one of the first examples of the inference of divergence history from genome-wide data in non-model species.     

Pleistocene speciation with and without gene flow in Euphaea damselflies of subtropical and tropical East Asian islands

Climatic oscillations during the Pleistocene period could have had a profound impact on the origin of tropical species by the alternation of allopatric isolation and interpopulation gene flow cycles. However, whether tropical speciation involves strictly allopatric isolation, or proceeds in the face of homogenizing gene flow, is relatively unclear. Here, we investigated geographical modes of speciation in four closely related Euphaea damselfly species endemic to the subtropical and tropical East Asian islands using coalescent analyses of a multilocus data set. The reconstructed phylogenies demonstrated distinct species status for each of the four species and the existence of two sister species pairs, Euphaea formosa/E. yayeyamana and E. decorata/E. ornata. The species divergence time of the sibling Euphaea damselflies dates back to within the last one Mya of the Middle to Lower Pleistocene. The speciation between the populous E. formosa of Taiwan and the less numerous E. yayeyamana of the Yaeyama islands occurred despite significant bidirectional, asymmetric gene flow, which is strongly inconsistent with a strictly allopatric model. In contrast, speciation of the approximately equal-sized populations of E. decorata of the southeast Asian mainland and E. ornata of Hainan is inferred to have involved allopatric divergence without gene flow. Our findings suggest that differential selection of natural or sexual environments is a prominent driver of species divergence in subtropical E. formosa and E. yayeyamana; whereas for tropical E. decorata and E. ornata at lower latitudes, allopatric isolation may well be a pivotal promoter of species formation.     

Bayes estimation of species divergence times and ancestral population sizes using DNA sequences from multiple loci

The effective population sizes of ancestral as well as modern species are important parameters in models of population genetics and human evolution. The commonly used method for estimating ancestral population sizes, based on counting mismatches between the species tree and the inferred gene trees, is highly biased as it ignores uncertainties in gene tree reconstruction. In this article, we develop a Bayes method for simultaneous estimation of the species divergence times and current and ancestral population sizes. The method uses DNA sequence data from multiple loci and extracts information about conflicts among gene tree topologies and coalescent times to estimate ancestral population sizes. The topology of the species tree is assumed known. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is implemented to integrate over uncertain gene trees and branch lengths (or coalescence times) at each locus as well as species divergence times. The method can handle any species tree and allows different numbers of sequences at different loci. We apply the method to published noncoding DNA sequences from the human and the great apes. There are strong correlations between posterior estimates of speciation times and ancestral population sizes. With the use of an informative prior for the human-chimpanzee divergence date, the population size of the common ancestor of the two species is estimated to be approximately 20,000, with a 95% credibility interval (8000, 40,000). Our estimates, however, are affected by model assumptions as well as data quality. We suggest that reliable estimates have yet to await more data and more realistic models.     

Coupling genetic and ecological-niche models to examine how past population distributions contribute to divergence

Understanding the impact of climate-induced distributional shifts on species divergence, like those accompanying the Pleistocene glacial cycles [1, 2], requires tools that explicitly incorporate the geographic configuration of past distributions into analyses of genetic differentiation. Depending on the historical distribution of species, genetic differences may accumulate among ancestral source populations, but there is long-standing debate whether displacements into glacial refugia promoted divergence. Here we integrate coalescent-based genetic models [3, 4] with ecological-niche modeling [5, 6] to generate expectations for patterns of genetic variation based on an inferred past distribution of a species. Reconstruction of the distribution of a montane grasshopper species during the last glacial maximum suggests that Melanoplus marshalli populations from the sky islands of Colorado and Utah were likely colonized from multiple ancestral source populations. The genetic analyses provide compelling evidence that the historical distribution of M. marshalli-namely, spatial separation of multiple refugia-was conducive to genetic differentiation. The coupling of genetic and ecological-niche modeling provides a new and flexible tool for integrating paleoenvironmental details into species-specific predictions of population structure that can increase our understanding of why the glacial cycles promoted speciation in some taxa and yet inhibited diversification in others [7, 8].     

Estimating species phylogeny from gene-tree probabilities despite incomplete lineage sorting: an example from Melanoplus grasshoppers

Estimating phylogenetic relationships among closely related species can be extremely difficult when there is incongruence among gene trees and between the gene trees and the species tree. Here we show that incorporating a model of the stochastic loss of gene lineages by genetic drift into the phylogenetic estimation procedure can provide a robust estimate of species relationships, despite widespread incomplete sorting of ancestral polymorphism. This approach is applied to a group of montane Melanoplus grasshoppers for which genealogical discordance among loci and incomplete lineage sorting obscures any obvious phylogenetic relationships among species. Unlike traditional treatments where gene trees estimated using standard phylogenetic methods are implicitly equated with the species tree, with the coalescent-based approach the species tree is modeled probabilistically from the estimated gene trees. The estimated species phylogeny (the ESP) is calculated for the grasshoppers from multiple gene trees reconstructed for nuclear loci and a mitochondrial gene. This empirical application is coupled with a simulation study to explore the performance of the coalescent-based approach. Specifically, we test the accuracy of the ESP given the data based on analyses of simulated data matching the multilocus data collected in Melanoplus (i.e., data were simulated for each locus with the same number of base pairs and locus-specific mutational models). The results of the study show that ESPs can be computed using the coalescent-based approach long before reciprocal monophyly has been achieved, and that these statistical estimates are accurate. This contrasts with analyses of the empirical data collected in Melanoplus and simulated data based on concatenation of multiple loci, for which the incomplete lineage sorting of recently diverged species posed significant problems. The strengths and potential challenges associated with incorporating an explicit model of gene-lineage coalescence into the phylogenetic procedure to obtain an ESP, as illustrated by application to Melanoplus, versus concatenation and consensus approaches are discussed. This study represents a fundamental shift in how species relationships are estimated - the relationship between the gene trees and the species phylogeny is modeled probabilistically rather than equating gene trees with a species tree.     

Assessing models of speciation under different biogeographic scenarios; an empirical study using multi‐locus and RNA‐seq analyses

Evolutionary biology often seeks to decipher the drivers of speciation, and much debate persists over the relative importance of isolation and gene flow in the formation of new species. Genetic studies of closely related species can assess if gene flow was present during speciation, because signatures of past introgression often persist in the genome. We test hypotheses on which mechanisms of speciation drove diversity among three distinct lineages of desert tortoise in the genus Gopherus. These lineages offer a powerful system to study speciation, because different biogeographic patterns (physical vs. ecological segregation) are observed at opposing ends of their distributions. We use 82 samples collected from 38 sites, representing the entire species' distribution and generate sequence data for mtDNA and four nuclear loci. A multilocus phylogenetic analysis in *BEAST estimates the species tree. RNA‐seq data yield 20,126 synonymous variants from 7665 contigs from two individuals of each of the three lineages. Analyses of these data using the demographic inference package ?a?i serve to test the null hypothesis of no gene flow during divergence. The best‐fit demographic model for the three taxa is concordant with the *BEAST species tree, and the ?a?i analysis does not indicate gene flow among any of the three lineages during their divergence. These analyses suggest that divergence among the lineages occurred in the absence of gene flow and in this scenario the genetic signature of ecological isolation (parapatric model) cannot be differentiated from geographic isolation (allopatric model).