基于最大熵模型的不同尺度物种分布概率优化热点分析: 以红色木莲为例

单一空间尺度构建的最大熵(maximum entropy, MaxEnt)模型是否具有代表性, 是MaxEnt模型应用与发展中面临的重要问题。本研究基于有效的地理分布位点数据, 利用最小凸多边形法(the minimum convex polygon method)在三江并流、云南省及全国3个空间尺度下分别识别了红色木莲(Manglietia insignis)的建模区域, 并进一步建立MaxEnt模型: 使用ROC曲线分析法与遗漏率(omission rate, OR)检验评估MaxEnt模型预测精度; 基于ArcGIS分析分布概率及其热点区域的分布趋势, 并通过分区统计工具Zonal识别潜在适宜分布区域的质心位置; 采用刀切法检验环境因子贡献率。结果表明: (1)不同尺度下红色木莲的MaxEnt模型都有良好的预测效果, 三江并流、云南省及全国尺度下的AUC值分别为0.936、0.887和0.930, OR值分别为0.18、0.15和0.20; (2)各尺度红色木莲的适生区格局呈现一致性分布趋势, 集中在独龙江、怒江和澜沧江3个流域; (3) 3个空间尺度下红色木莲的地理分布受不同环境因子影响, 存在着尺度依赖效应。由此可见, 红色木莲在不同空间尺度下的预测模型有着稳定的性能表现与良好的预测效果。此外, 我们建议在野外实地调查与野生生物资源保护中加强对普通物种的关注, 在预测物种地理分布的研究中将MaxEnt模型与热点分析结合使用。     

城市景观格局的空间尺度分析

景观生态学研究的核心内容是景观格局与生态过程。因为景观格局与生态过程中都存在的尺度多样性问题,导致尺度成为理解景观格局和生态过程相互作用的关键,但是由于理论和方法的限制,目前对景观生态学的尺度研究还不够深入,特别是景观格局对尺度变化的响应特征。目前GIS与RS技术的发展为不同尺度下的空间格局特征和空间异质性研究提供了有效的工具。论文以上海市为背景,用景观生态学方法研究了不同粒度下景观格局特征,同时用半变异函数分析了不同幅度下景观多样性的格局特征。结果显示:(1)不同的指数对粒度的响应不同;(2)空间多样性在小幅度内变化较复杂;(3)不论粒度还是幅度都揭示出景观格局具有尺度依赖性规律。     

中国特有种天山猪毛菜的地理分布及潜在分布区预测

基于野外调查的居群分布信息和20个环境变量(包括海拔及19个气候变量),采用最大熵模型( MaxEnt)和地理信息系统( ArcGIS)对中国特有种天山猪毛菜( Salsola junatovii Botsch.)的潜在分布区进行预测;并采用受试者工作特征曲线( ROC)和刀切法( jackknife test)分别检验MaxEnt模型的精度和评估各环境变量在决定潜在分布区时的贡献量。结果显示：天山猪毛菜主要分布在中国新疆南部的12个县(包括托克逊县、和硕县、和静县、焉耆县、拜城县、库车县、温宿县、乌什县、阿合奇县、阿图什县、乌恰县和阿克陶县),但在相关文献记载的曾有分布的阿克苏市、柯坪县和喀什市则本调查中没有发现。通过MaxEnt模型预测,天山猪毛菜的潜在适生区主要集中在新疆南部(包括天山南坡和塔里木盆地西南缘)以及甘肃的西部和东部等,新疆西部地区有零星分布;在调查的15个居群中,除居群14(位于乌恰县西部)外,其他14个居群均位于潜在适生区内,其中的7个居群位于非常适宜的潜在适生区内,表明利用MaxEnt模型预测天山猪毛菜的潜在适生区效果较好。在20个环境变量中,对预测结果贡献量位居前3位的环境变量为最冷季度平均温度、最冷月最低温和最干季度平均温度,表明该种的分布与低温相关。此外,对天山猪毛菜潜在适生区与实际分布区差异的成因进行了分析。     

未来气候变化下栎树猝死病菌在中国的适生性分析

基于中国国家有害生物检疫信息平台的有关记录和文献以及WoldClim网站,获取栎树猝死病菌的地理分布数据及气候数据,并用SPSS软件和刀切法筛选主导环境变量。利用MaxEnt生态位模型和ArcGIS软件,对栎树猝死病菌现代和未来情景下在我国的潜在适生区进行预测,并计算和绘制栎树猝死病菌高风险区质心转移轨迹。通过不同年份和不同气候情况下的受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)的训练集和测试集受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)值均大于0.91,说明MaxEnt模型准确并适用于预测栎树猝死病菌在我国的潜在分布,同时结合其主要寄主植物的地理分布进一步增强预测模型的可信度。预测结果表明,最冷季度降水量、最冷季度平均温度、最干季度平均温度和年均降水量是影响栎树猝死病菌分布的主要环境变量。而2030s(2021—2040年)、2050s(2041—2060年)和2070s(2061—2080年)在3种气候情景下(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5),栎树猝死病菌的潜在适生区相较于现代情景下都有所增加。此外,高风险区面积在3个年代3种情景下的面积增长率均高于45%。高风险区质心变化的预测结果表...     

外来入侵植物肿柄菊在云南的扩散风险研究

预测外来入侵植物的潜在入侵范围以及对不同环境的适应性,能够为外来植物入侵提供预警和预防.该文通过实地调查肿柄菊(Tithonia diversifolia)在云南的入侵范围,以及收集世界其他地区分布点,结合12个关键环境变量,利用MaxEnt模型对肿柄菊适生区范围和环境限制因子进行分析.结果表明:在世界范围适生区分布格...     

基于生态位模型预测野生油茶的潜在分布

油茶(Camellia oleifera)是我国第一大木本油料作物, 野生油茶是油茶育种的宝贵遗传资源。本研究从中国数字植物标本馆(CVH, http://www.cvh.org.cn/)获得可靠的野生油茶分布点数据, 结合气象和土壤数据, 分别应用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型和规则集遗传算法(GARP)模型构建了野生油茶的生态位模型, 预测了野生油茶的潜在分布区, 并分析了影响野生油茶分布的主要环境变量。根据生态位模型预测的分布概率值, 对野生油茶的潜在分布区划分适生等级, 并与主要油茶产地的实际分布数据进行比较, 以验证适生等级划分的可靠性。结果表明, 两种模型的预测结果均能较好地反映油茶的分布情况。GARP模型预测的潜在分布区更广, 而MaxEnt模型的预测结果更精确。两种模型的预测结果均显示, 野生油茶的潜在分布区大部分位于中国, 但在中南半岛也有部分分布。MaxEnt模型预测的野生油茶在中国的潜在分布区与我国亚热带常绿阔叶林的分布区基本吻合, 高适生区主要可以分为3大区域: (1)东北-西南走向的武夷山脉及附近的群山区域; (2)东西走向的南岭山脉及附近的群山区域; (3)东北-西南走向的武陵山脉及附近的群山区域。MaxEnt模型分析显示, 影响野生油茶分布的主要环境变量是昼夜温差月均值、最干季降水量与最暖季降水量。油茶生长面积较大的地区绝大部分都位于MaxEnt模型预测的中、高适生区, 说明适生等级的划分较可靠。实地考察显示, 生态位模型的预测结果对于寻找野生油茶资源具有较高的参考价值。此外, 本研究也充分显示, 利用中国数字植物标本馆的植物分布数据, 结合相应的环境数据构建生态位模型, 有助于了解作物野生近缘种的地理分布。     

提高生态位模型转移能力来模拟入侵物种 的潜在分布

生态位模型利用物种分布点所关联的环境变量去推算物种的生态需求, 模拟物种的分布。在模拟入侵物种分布时, 经典生态位模型包括模型构建于物种本土分布地, 然后将其转移并投射至另一地理区域, 来模拟入侵物种的潜在分布。然而在模型运用时, 出现了模型的转移能力较低、模拟的结果与物种的实际分布不相符的情况, 由此得出了生态位漂移等不恰当的结论。提高生态位模型的转移能力, 可以准确地模拟入侵物种的潜在分布, 为入侵种的风险评估提供参考。作者以入侵种茶翅蝽(Halyomorpha halys)和互花米草(Spartina alterniflora)为例, 从模型的构建材料(即物种分布点和环境变量)入手, 全面阐述提高模型转移能力的策略。在构建模型之前, 需要充分了解入侵物种的生物学特性、种群平衡状态、本土地理分布范围及物种的生物历史地理等方面的知识。在模型构建环节上, 物种分布点不仅要充分覆盖物种的地理分布和生态空间的范围, 同时要降低物种采样点偏差; 环境变量的选择要充分考虑其对物种分布的限制作用、各环境变量之间的空间相关性, 以及不同地理种群间生态空间是否一致, 同时要降低环境变量的空间维度; 模型构建区域要真实地反映物种的地理分布范围, 并考虑种群的平衡状态。作者认为, 在生态位保守的前提下, 如果模型是构建在一个合理方案的基础上, 生态位模型的转移能力是可以保证的, 在以模型转移能力较低的现象来阐述生态位分化时需要引起注意。     

基于MaxEnt模型的中国沙棘潜在适宜分布区分析

中国沙棘主要分布于我国华北、西北、西南等地森林—草原过渡地带,是我国北方地区退耕还林、生态修复等工程的重要造林树种,对维持干旱、半干旱地区的生态环境稳定具有重要意义。探讨限制中国沙棘分布的主导气候因子,模拟其潜在适宜分布区,以期为中国沙棘在林业生态工程和生态经济林建设中的合理种植和推广提供理论依据。基于中国沙棘自然分布的328个地理样点,利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型对中国沙棘的潜在分布区的主导气候因子进行分析,并预测中国沙棘的潜在分布范围。结果表明,基于气候变量的MaxEnt模型训练集和测试集受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC值)分别为0.962±0.001和0.949±0.001,均大于0.9,表明MaxEnt模型对中国沙棘潜在分布区的预测具有极高的准确度,可信度好。基于环境变量贡献率和刀切法的结果表明年降雨情况、生长季的水热状况、最干季降雨和最冷月最低温等是限制中国沙棘分布的主要气候因素,其中年降雨是限制中国沙棘分布的主导气候因子。通过模拟得到现代中国沙棘潜在地理分布的总适生区面积为165.1万km~2;其中高适生区和中适生区面积共93.3万km~2,主要集中分布于河北西部、北部,...     

广西沿海红树林潜在适宜区变化及互花米草入侵威胁的预测

红树林是分布于热带、亚热带潮间带的重要蓝碳生态系统之一,在我国广西沿岸广泛分布。为了更好地探究全球气候变化背景下我国红树林潜在适宜生境的变化趋势,本研究利用2021年广西沿海湿地遥感解译数据、全球海洋环境和生物气候环境数据,构建了最大熵生境分布模型,用于模拟广西沿海红树林及其入侵种互花米草潜在适宜区的空间分布,并预测极端气候变化情景下(SSP5-8.5)的变化趋势。结果表明：2021年,广西沿海现有红树林面积9136.7 hm²,模型预测其潜在适宜生境面积为55955.9 hm²,现有红树林分布区面积已基本覆盖其潜在高适宜区和近10%的中等适宜区。互花米草现有面积1320.4 hm²,预测其潜在高适宜区面积是现有面积的2倍,表明仍有大面积高适宜区未被互花米草占据。影响红树林现有潜在生境分布重要性最大的环境因子依次为离岸欧氏距离(62.2%)、地形凹凸指数(8.7%)、最热季平均海温(6.1%)、海底地形高程(5.6%),其潜在适宜分布区主要受地理条件影响。全球气候变化情景(SSP5-8.5)下,预测红树林的潜在适宜区面积...     

基于MaxEnt模型的草原步甲属潜在地理分布研究

步甲(Carabid beetle)是草原生态系统重要的昆虫类群之一,对草原生态系统环境监测及维护生物多样性起着重要的作用。基于步甲属(雕步甲和长叶步甲)在宁夏草原131个有效调查记录和19个环境因子,利用最大熵模型(Maximum Entropy Model,简称MaxEnt)预测步甲属潜在空间地理分布,运用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)检测预测模型精度,刀切法(Jackknife)筛选影响步甲属潜在地理分布的主要生态因子。结果表明：(1) MaxEnt模型预测结果 ROC曲线AUC值分别为0.981、0.914,模型预测结果的可信度较高;(2) 19个环境因子中,对步甲属的潜在空间分布预测贡献率较高的环境因子为最冷月份最低气温、年均降水量、最干季均温、年平均气温;(3)雕步甲主要分布在温性荒漠草原及温性草甸草原的北部,长叶步甲主要分布在温性草甸草原。以上研究为步甲调查和保护提供参考依据。     

Evaluating the use of macroscale variables as proxies for local aquatic variables and to model stream fish distributions

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Habitat modification inhibits conspecific seedling recruitment in populations of an invasive ecosystem engineer

Invasive species that strongly modify their physical habitat are a particular management concern. Theoretical models predict that habitat modification could speed spread rates or allow invasion of sites that would otherwise resist invasion. There are few empirical tests of this hypothesis, however. We tested whether habitat modification by invading Spartina alterniflora populations facilitates conspecific seedling recruitment and spatial spread in Willapa Bay, WA, USA. Established S. alterniflora individuals strongly modified their local physical environment. Hydrologic flow, porewater salinity, and light availability were decreased while sediment NH₄ ⁺ increased with increasing S. alterniflora stem density. The S. alterniflora seed bank was greater and spring seedlings were denser within meadows of S. alterniflora than on unvegetated tideflats. However, almost all seedling recruitment after 1 year occurred on tideflats or on meadow edge plots where the above ground S. alterniflora biomass had been removed. Instead of facilitating invasive spread, ecosystem engineering in this system appears to create conditions that inhibit local seedling recruitment. These results suggest that the influence of ecosystem engineering on invasive spread is highly contingent on the relative spatial scales of habitat modification, environmental heterogeneity, and propagule availability. Control activities could change these spatial relationships, however, inadvertently promoting invasive recruitment.     

Scale-related patterns in the spatial and environmental components of stream macroinvertebrate assemblage variation

Aim We examined the relative contributions of spatial gradients and local environmental conditions to macroinvertebrate assemblages of boreal headwater streams at three hierarchical extents: bioregion, ecoregion and drainage system. We also aimed to identify the environmental variables most strongly related to assemblage structure at each study scale, and to assess how the importance of these variables is related to regional context and spatial structuring at different scales. Location Northern Finland ( 62 – 68° N, 25–32° E). Methods Variation in macroinvertebrate data was partitioned using partial canonical correspondence analysis into components explained by spatial variables (nine terms from the cubic trend surface regression), local environmental variables (15 variables) and spatially structured environmental variation. Results The strength of the relationship between assemblage structure and local environmental variables increased with decreasing spatial extent, whereas assemblage variation related to spatial variables and spatially structured environmental variation showed the opposite pattern. At the largest extents, spatial variation was related to latitudinal gradients, whereas spatial autocorrelation among neighbouring streams was the likely mechanism creating spatial structure within drainage systems. Only stream size and water acidity were consistently important in explaining assemblage structure at all study scales, while the importance of other environmental variables was more context‐dependent. Main conclusions The importance of local environmental factors in explaining macroinvertebrate assemblage structure increases with decreasing spatial extent. This scale‐related pattern is not caused solely by changes in study extent, however, but also by variable sample sizes at different regional extents. The importance of environmental gradients is context‐dependent and few factors are likely to be universally important correlates of macroinvertebrate assemblage structure. Finally, our results suggest that bioassessment should give due attention to spatial structuring of stream assemblages, because important assemblage gradients may not only be related to local factors but also to biogeographical constraints and neighbourhood dispersal processes.     

胶州湾典型河口湿地土壤活性有机碳和酶活性对互花米草入侵的响应

以胶州湾洋河口湿地为研究对象,按照互花米草入侵年份(0、1、5、8年)分层采集土壤样品(0—10、10—20、20—40 cm和40—60 cm),研究土壤活性有机碳(LOC)和酶(脲酶、过氧化氢酶、碱性磷酸酶、蔗糖酶)活性的变化,分析土壤活性有机碳和酶活性及两者相关性对互花米草入侵的响应。结果表明:与光滩相比,互花米草入侵增加了表层土壤LOC含量,且随着入侵时间的延长显著增加(P0.05)。同时也改变了土壤LOC垂直分布规律,除光滩和入侵1年样地表现出沿剖面逐渐上升之外,其他样地表现为沿剖面先上升后下降趋势;互花米草入侵提高了河口湿地土壤酶活性,但并未改变酶活性随深度增加而逐渐降低的分布规律。随着入侵时间的延长4种酶活性变化趋势有所差异,过氧化氢酶和蔗糖酶活性变化趋势一致,表现为随入侵时间延长先急剧增加后逐渐减少,而碱性磷酸酶和脲酶活性随着入侵时间的延长逐渐增加。Pearson相关性分析结果显示,土壤LOC和酶活性呈显著负相关且互花米草入侵时间越长两者间相关性越低,8年后无显著相关性。     

Distribution and coexistence patterns of phytoplankton in subtropical shallow lakes and the role of niche-based and spatial processes

Phytoplankton is an important microbial component in many ecosystems, and thus, knowing the predictive variables of its distribution is very valuable. In this study, we evaluated the roles of niche-based and spatial processes on phytoplankton communities of nine lakes in southern Brazil (spatial distance covered of 220 km). Variation partitioning analysis was employed to determine the relative contributions of environmental and spatial variables on the distribution of prokaryotic (PRP) and eukaryotic (EUP) components of phytoplankton at multispatial extents. C-score analysis was carried out, at intra- and interlake scales, to examine whether phytoplankton species coexist less or more than expected by chance (taxa segregation and aggregation, respectively). Our results showed that, at broader spatial scales, both PRP and EUP distributions are mainly influenced by pure space, while at finer spatial scales, the two groups are mainly influenced by pure environment. PRP distribution at broader spatial scales was also significantly influenced by spatially structured environment, and was in general more affected by spatial variables than by EUP. Finally, a taxa segregation pattern was observed at the interlake scale. In general, our results suggest that niche-based processes are more important in structuring phytoplankton on the local scale while spatial processes on the regional scale.     

Scaling of species distribution models across spatial resolutions and extents along a biogeographic gradient. The case of the Iberian mole Talpa occidentalis

Scaling is a key process in modelling approaches since it allows for translating information from one scale to another. However, the success of this procedure may depend on ‘source’ and ‘target’ scales, but also on the biogeographic/ecological context of the study area. We aimed to quantify the performance and success of scaling species distribution model (SDM) predictions across spatial resolution and extent along a biogeographic gradient using the Iberian mole as study case. We ran separate MaxEnt models at two extents (national and regional) using independent datasets (species locations and environmental predictors) collected at 10 km and 50 m resolutions respectively. Model performance and success of scaling SDMs were quantified on the basis of accuracy measures and spatial predictions. Complementarily, we calculated marginality and tolerance as indicators of habitat availability and niche truncation along the biogeographic gradient. Model performance increased with resolution and extent, as well as from north to south (mainly for high resolution models). When regional models were validated at different scales, their performance reduced severely, particularly in the case of coarse resolution models (some of them performed worse than random). However, when the 10 km‐national model was downscaled within regions, it performed better (AUC_test: 0.82, 0.85 and 0.55 respectively for Galicia, Madrid and Granada) than models specifically calibrated within each region at 10 km (0.47, 0.65, 0.44). Indeed, it also had a better accuracy when projected at 50 m (0.77, 0.91, 0.79) than models fitted at that resolution (0.62, 0.83, 0.96) in two of the three cases. The success of scaling model predictions decreased along the biogeographic gradient, being these differences associated to niche truncation. Models representing non‐truncated niches were more successfully scaled across resolutions and extents (particularly in areas not offering all possible habitats for species), which has important implications for SDM applications.     

互花米草入侵对胶州湾河口湿地土壤总铁分布的影响

互花米草是胶州湾滨海湿地典型的入侵物种,为进一步了解互花米草入侵对胶州湾河口湿地土壤总铁含量分布的影响,于2017年3月、5月、7月、9月和11月分别在互花米草湿地和光滩采集土壤样品,并对土壤总铁含量、有机质含量、土壤可溶性盐、pH、含水率、容重和土壤粒度进行测定与分析。结果表明:互花米草入侵显著提高了土壤总铁含量,两样区0—50 cm土层土壤总铁含量差异显著(P0.05),5月和7月互花米草湿地总铁含量在垂直方向上呈先上升后下降趋势;与光滩在同一采样月份相比,互花米草湿地土壤总铁含量增幅分别为25.36%、29.50%、17.52%、30.28%和14.48%。相关性分析表明,互花米草湿地和光滩土壤总铁含量均与有机质含量和可溶性盐呈显著正相关(P0.01);并且光滩土壤总铁含量与含水率呈显著正相关(P0.01),与容重呈显著负相关(P0.01),表明两样区土壤总铁含量受有机质含量和可溶性盐影响较大。     

入侵种互花米草空间扩张模式识别与景观变化模拟

在3S技术支撑下,通过景观格局指数、质心变化等方法,分析2006—2015年研究区内互花米草群落的景观空间分布特征,并利用2015年高分二号影像识别出扩张模式及预测扩张趋势。结果表明:(1)近年来,互花米草沼泽向陆扩张速度大于向海扩张速度,其质心不断向陆方向移动。(2)2006—2015年,互花米草斑块密度变大,面积加权平均形状指数也相应增大为8.63,景观形状越来越复杂。(3)利用LEI和PFD识别出互花米草的3种扩张模式,边缘扩张面积远大于外部隔离扩张面积,外部隔离扩张斑块数量远多于边缘扩张和潮沟引领式扩张斑块数之和,潮沟对互花米草的向陆扩张起到引领作用。(4)利用缓冲区分析模拟互花米草向陆扩张的趋势,未来5年碱蓬沼泽的面积将减少11.45%。研究可为进一步认识互花米草入侵碱蓬沼泽机制提供科学参考。     

Patterns of coexistence of two species of freshwater turtles are affected by spatial scale

Inferring biotic interactions from the examination of patterns of species occurrences has been a central tenet in community ecology, and it has recently gained interest in the context of single-species distribution modelling. However, understanding of how spatial extent and grain size affect such inferences remains elusive. For example, would inferences of biotic interactions from broad-scale patterns of coexistence provide a surrogate for patterns at finer spatial scales? In this paper we examine how the spatial and environmental association between two closely related species of freshwater turtles in the Iberian Peninsula is affected by the geographical extent and resolution of the analysis. Species coexistence was compared across spatial scales using five datasets at varying spatial extents and resolutions. Both similarities in the two species’ use of space and in their responses to environmental variables were explored by means of regression analyses. We show that a positive association between the two species measured at broader scales can switch to a negative association at finer scales. We demonstrate that without examination of the effects of spatial scale when investigating biotic interactions using co-occurrence patterns observed at coarse resolutions, conclusions can be deeply misleading.