Genotyping of Capreolus pygargus fossil DNA from Denisova cave reveals phylogenetic relationships between ancient and modern populations

Background

The extant roe deer (Capreolus Gray, 1821) includes two species: the European roe deer (C. capreolus) and the Siberian roe deer (C. pygargus) that are distinguished by morphological and karyotypical differences. The Siberian roe deer occupies a vast area of Asia and is considerably less studied than the European roe deer. Modern systematics of the Siberian roe deer remain controversial with 4 morphological subspecies. Roe deer fossilized bones are quite abundant in Denisova cave (Altai Mountains, South Siberia), where dozens of both extant and extinct mammalian species from modern Holocene to Middle Pleistocene have been retrieved.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We analyzed a 629 bp fragment of the mitochondrial control region from ancient bones of 10 Holocene and four Pleistocene Siberian roe deer from Denisova cave as well as 37 modern specimen belonging to populations from Altai, Tian Shan (Kyrgyzstan), Yakutia, Novosibirsk region and the Russian Far East. Genealogical reconstructions indicated that most Holocene haplotypes were probably ancestral for modern roe deer populations of Western Siberia and Tian Shan. One of the Pleistocene haplotypes was possibly ancestral for modern Yakutian populations, and two extinct Pleistocene haplotypes were close to modern roe deer from Tian Shan and Yakutia. Most modern geographical populations (except for West Siberian Plains) are heterogeneous and there is some tentative evidence for structure. However, we did not find any distinct phylogenetic signal characterizing particular subspecies in either modern or ancient samples.

Conclusion/Significance

Analysis of mitochondrial DNA from both ancient and modern samples of Siberian roe deer shed new light on understanding the evolutionary history of roe deer. Our data indicate that during the last 50,000 years multiple replacements of populations of the Siberian roe deer took place in the Altai Mountains correlating with climatic changes. The Siberian roe deer represent a complex and heterogeneous species with high migration rates and without evident subspecies structure. Low genetic diversity of the West Siberian Plain population indicates a recent bottleneck or founder effect.     

No difference between the sexes in fine-scale spatial genetic structure of roe deer

Background

Data on spatial genetic patterns may provide information about the ecological and behavioural mechanisms underlying population structure. Indeed, social organization and dispersal patterns of species may be reflected by the pattern of genetic structure within a population.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We investigated the fine-scale spatial genetic structure of a roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) population in Trois-Fontaines (France) using 12 microsatellite loci. The roe deer is weakly polygynous and highly sedentary, and can form matrilineal clans. We show that relatedness among individuals was negatively correlated with geographic distance, indicating that spatially proximate individuals are also genetically close. More unusually for a large mammalian herbivore, the link between relatedness and distance did not differ between the sexes, which is consistent with the lack of sex-biased dispersal and the weakly polygynous mating system of roe deer.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results contrast with previous reports on highly polygynous species with male-biased dispersal, such as red deer, where local genetic structure was detected in females only. This divergence between species highlights the importance of socio-spatial organization in determining local genetic structure of vertebrate populations.     

Propagule pressure and land cover changes as main drivers of red and roe deer expansion in mainland Portugal

Aim

The management of the rapid expansion of wild ungulate populations is a challenging task and a societal priority. Using a progressive database of red (Cervus elaphus) and roe (Capreolus capreolus) deer colonization over the last three decades, we estimate the range expansion rates and the underlying mechanisms involved in the expansion patterns of red and roe deer populations at the south‐western edge of its European distribution.

Location

Mainland Portugal.

Methods

We compiled and grouped historical red and roe deer distribution data in three time periods (1981–1990, 1991–2000 and 2001–2010). We used generalized linear mixed models to evaluate how biotic and abiotic drivers determine the expansion patterns of red and roe deer.

Results

We reported a significant expansion of red and roe deer populations during the last three decades. The significant interaction between propagule pressure and land cover suggests that the effects of propagule pressure vary along environmental gradients. We found that the influence of livestock on red and roe deer expansion is idiosyncratic. Contrary to red deer, roe deer expansion was also influenced by climatic conditions. We did not detect any significant effect of human factors on the red and roe deer expansion.

Main conclusions

The synergistic effects between variables should be taken into account when studying the patterns of species expansion. Our study emphasize that policy makers should consider the spatial, temporal, ecological and societal nuances of species expansion in order to prioritize management measures and to allocate management budgets. Although concerted strategies to curtail species spread should mitigate red and roe deer economic and ecological impacts, these effects can be neutralized by a continuous rural exodus and the consequent forest and shrub encroachment.

     

A National Case-Control Study Identifies Human Socio-Economic Status and Activities as Risk Factors for Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Poland

Background

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is endemic to Europe and medically highly significant. This study, focused on Poland, investigated individual risk factors for TBE symptomatic infection.

Methods and Findings

In a nation-wide population-based case-control study, of the 351 TBE cases reported to local health departments in Poland in 2009, 178 were included in the analysis. For controls, of 2704 subjects (matched to cases by age, sex, district of residence) selected at random from the national population register, two were interviewed for each case and a total of 327 were suitable for the analysis. Questionnaires yielded information on potential exposure to ticks during the six weeks (maximum incubation period) preceding disease onset in each case. Independent associations between disease and socio-economic factors and occupational or recreational exposure were assessed by conditional logistic regression, stratified according to residence in known endemic and non-endemic areas. Adjusted population attributable fractions (PAF) were computed for significant variables. In endemic areas, highest TBE risk was associated with spending ≥10 hours/week in mixed forests and harvesting forest foods (adjusted odds ratio 19.19 [95% CI: 1.72–214.32]; PAF 0.127 [0.064–0.193]), being unemployed (11.51 [2.84–46.59]; 0.109 [0.046–0.174]), or employed as a forester (8.96 [1.58–50.77]; 0.053 [0.011–0.100]) or non-specialized worker (5.39 [2.21–13.16]; 0.202 [0.090–0.282]). Other activities (swimming, camping and travel to non-endemic regions) reduced risk. Outside TBE endemic areas, risk was greater for those who spent ≥10 hours/week on recreation in mixed forests (7.18 [1.90–27.08]; 0.191 [0.065–0.304]) and visited known TBE endemic areas (4.65 [0.59–36.50]; 0.058 [−0.007–0.144]), while travel to other non-endemic areas reduced risk.

Conclusions

These socio-economic factors and associated human activities identified as risk factors for symptomatic TBE in Poland are consistent with results from previous correlational studies across eastern Europe, and allow public health interventions to be targeted at particularly vulnerable sections of the population.     

Correlation of TBE Incidence with Red Deer and Roe Deer Abundance in Slovenia

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a virus infection which sometimes causes human disease. The TBE virus is found in ticks and certain vertebrate tick hosts in restricted endemic localities termed TBE foci. The formation of natural foci is a combination of several factors: the vectors, a suitable and numerous enough number of hosts and in a habitat with suitable vegetation and climate. The present study investigated the influence of deer on the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis. We were able to obtain data from deer culls. Using this data, the abundance of deer was estimated and temporal and spatial analysis was performed. The abundance of deer has increased in the past decades, as well as the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis. Temporal analysis confirmed a correlation between red deer abundance and tick-borne encephalitis occurrence. Additionally, spatial analysis established, that in areas with high incidence of tick-borne encephalitis red deer density is higher, compared to areas with no or few human cases of tick-borne encephalitis. However, such correlation could not be confirmed between roe deer density and the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis. This is presumably due to roe deer density being above a certain threshold so that availability of tick reproduction hosts has no apparent effect on ticks'' host finding and consequently may not be possible to correlate with incidence of human TBE.     

Predation has a greater impact in less productive environments: variation in roe deer, Capreolus capreolus, population density across Europe

Aim We aimed to describe the large‐scale patterns in population density of roe deer Caprelous capreolus in Europe and to determine the factors shaping variation in their abundance. Location Europe. Methods We collated data on roe deer population density from 72 localities spanning 25° latitude and 48° longitude and analysed them in relation to a range of environmental factors: vegetation productivity (approximated by the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation) and forest cover as proxies for food supply, winter severity, summer drought and presence or absence of large predators (wolf, Canis lupus, and Eurasian lynx, Lynx lynx), hunter harvest and a competitor (red deer, Cervus elaphus). Results Roe deer abundance increased with the overall productivity of vegetation cover and with lower forest cover (sparser forest cover means that a higher proportion of overall plant productivity is allocated to ground vegetation and thus is available to roe deer). The effect of large predators was relatively weak in highly productive environments and in regions with mild climate, but increased markedly in regions with low vegetation productivity and harsh winters. Other potentially limiting factors (hunting, summer drought and competition with red deer) had no significant impact on roe deer abundance. Main conclusions The analyses revealed the combined effect of bottom‐up and top‐down control on roe deer: on a biogeographical scale, population abundance of roe deer has been shaped by food‐related factors and large predators, with additive effects of the two species of predators. The results have implications for management of roe deer populations in Europe. First, an increase in roe deer abundance can be expected as environmental productivity increases due to climate change. Secondly, recovery plans for large carnivores should take environmental productivity and winter severity into account when predicting their impact on prey.     

Potential impacts of climatic change on European breeding birds

Background

Climatic change is expected to lead to changes in species'' geographical ranges. Adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation require quantitative estimates of the magnitude, direction and rates of these potential changes. Such estimates are of greatest value when they are made for large ensembles of species and for extensive (sub-continental or continental) regions.

Methodology/Principal Findings

For six climate scenarios for 2070–99 changes have been estimated for 431 European breeding bird species using models relating species'' distributions in Europe to climate. Mean range centroid potentially shifted 258–882 km in a direction between 341° (NNW) and 45° (NE), depending upon the climate scenario considered. Potential future range extent averaged 72–89% of the present range, and overlapped the present range by an average of 31–53% of the extent of the present range. Even if potential range changes were realised, the average number of species breeding per 50×50 km grid square would decrease by 6·8–23·2%. Many species endemic or near-endemic to Europe have little or no overlap between their present and potential future ranges; such species face an enhanced extinction risk as a consequence of climatic change.

Conclusions/Significance

Although many human activities exert pressures upon wildlife, the magnitude of the potential impacts estimated for European breeding birds emphasises the importance of climatic change. The development of adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in the face of climatic change is an urgent need; such strategies must take into account quantitative evidence of potential climatic change impacts such as is presented here.     

Long-term field data and climate-habitat models show that orangutan persistence depends on effective forest management and greenhouse gas mitigation

Background

Southeast Asian deforestation rates are among the world’s highest and threaten to drive many forest-dependent species to extinction. Climate change is expected to interact with deforestation to amplify this risk. Here we examine whether regional incentives for sustainable forest management will be effective in improving threatened mammal conservation, in isolation and when combined with global climate change mitigation.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using a long time-series of orangutan nest counts for Sabah (2000–10), Malaysian Borneo, we evaluated the effect of sustainable forest management and climate change scenarios, and their interaction, on orangutan spatial abundance patterns. By linking dynamic land-cover and downscaled global climate model projections, we determine the relative influence of these factors on orangutan spatial abundance and use the resulting statistical models to identify habitat crucial for their long-term conservation. We show that land-cover change the degradation of primary forest had the greatest influence on orangutan population size. Anticipated climate change was predicted to cause reductions in abundance in currently occupied populations due to decreased habitat suitability, but also to promote population growth in western Sabah by increasing the suitability of presently unoccupied regions.

Conclusions/Significance

We find strong quantitative support for the Sabah government’s proposal to implement sustainable forest management in all its forest reserves during the current decade; failure to do so could result in a 40 to 80 per cent regional decline in orangutan abundance by 2100. The Sabah orangutan is just one (albeit iconic) example of a forest-dependent species that stands to benefit from sustainable forest management, which promotes conservation of existing forests.     

Changes in host densities and co-feeding pattern efficiently predict tick-borne encephalitis hazard in an endemic focus in northern Italy

Tick-borne encephalitis is an important zoonosis in many parts of north-western, central and eastern Europe, Russia and the Far East, with considerable altitudinal and latitudinal shifts described during recent decades. The reported routes of transmission for TBE virus include the saliva-activated non-viraemic transmission between co-feeding ticks taking place on rodent hosts. During the period 2001–2014, a population of the yellow-necked mouse (Apodemus flavicollis), which is considered among the most efficient TBE competent host, especially in central and western Europe, was intensively live-trapped in a known TBE focus in the Province of Trento, Italy. Individual live-trapped mice were checked for the number and position of feeding ticks and serologically screened for TBEv antibodies. A combined effect of climatic conditions and density of both roe deer and mice on the number of co-feeding tick groups was observed. Specifically, the occurrence of co-feeding ticks on mice during the questing season was affected by autumnal cooling in the previous season. On the other hand, co-feeding occurrence was also positively associated with roe deer abundance, while mouse density showed a hump-shaped pattern. Individual features of A. flavicollis such as weight and sex also affected co-feeding occurrence with the heaviest (breeding adult) males carrying more co-feeding ticks. We also found that the overall number of co-feeding ticks on mice positively affected TBEv antibody detection in this species the following year. In conclusion, a specific combination of climatic conditions in conjunction with certain rodent and roe deer densities are the principal determinants of the number of co-feeding ticks on A. flavicollis and, consequently, TBEv circulation. These variables can be used to provide an early warning signal for a TBE hazard, thus representing a useful tool for Public Health authorities to prepare action for prevention and control within TBEv circulation areas.     

Genetic diversity and genetic structure of the Siberian roe deer (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Capreolus pygargus</Emphasis>) populations from Asia

Background

The roe deer, Capreolus sp., is one of the most widespread meso-mammals of Palearctic distribution, and includes two species, the European roe deer, C. capreolus inhabiting mainly Europe, and the Siberian roe deer, C. pygargus, distributed throughout continental Asia. Although there are a number of genetic studies concerning European roe deer, the Siberian roe deer has been studied less, and none of these studies use microsatellite markers. Natural processes have led to genetic structuring in wild populations. To understand how these factors have affected genetic structure and connectivity of Siberian roe deer, we investigated variability at 12 microsatellite loci for Siberian roe deer from ten localities in Asia.

Results

Moderate levels of genetic diversity (H _E = 0.522 to 0.628) were found in all populations except in Jeju Island, South Korea, where the diversity was lowest?(H _E?= 0.386). Western populations showed relatively low genetic diversity and higher degrees of genetic differentiation compared with eastern populations (mean Ar = 3.54 (east), 2.81 (west), mean F _ST = 0.122). Bayesian-based clustering analysis revealed the existence of three genetically distinct groups (clusters) for Siberian roe deer, which comprise of the Southeastern group (Mainland Korea, Russian Far East, Trans-Baikal region and Northern part of Mongolia), Northwestern group (Western Siberia and Ural in Russia) and Jeju Island population. Genetic analyses including AMOVA (F _RT = 0.200), Barrier and PCA also supported genetic differentiation among regions separated primarily by major mountain ridges, suggesting that mountains played a role in the genetic differentiation of Siberian roe deer. On the other hand, genetic evidence also suggests an ongoing migration that may facilitate genetic admixture at the border areas between two groups.

Conclusions

Our results reveal an apparent pattern of genetic differentiation among populations inhabiting Asia, showing moderate levels of genetic diversity with an east-west gradient. The results suggest at least three distinct management units of roe deer in continental Asia, although genetic admixture is evident in some border areas. The insights obtained from this study shed light on management of Siberian roe deer in Asia and may be applied in conservation of local populations of Siberian roe deer.

     

Determinants of tick-borne encephalitis virus antibody presence in roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) sera

In order to identify variables associated with the presence of the tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus, we conducted a serological survey of roe deer [Capreolus capreolus (Artiodactyla: Cervidae, Linnaeus 1758)] in three forest districts of southern Hesse, Germany. Overall, 24 out of 105 (22.9%) of the sera were positive (≥1 : 10 plaque reduction neutralization test). Using a logistic regression approach, we found that unexplained spatial variation, indexed roe deer density (positive correlation), hind foot length of the tested roe deer (positive correlation) and infestation with female Ixodes spp. ticks (negative correlation) predicted the probability of TBE virus antibody presence in individual roe deer sera. Spring temperature increase and host sex were rejected as explanatory variables. We found considerable differences in TBE virus antibody seroprevalence (50.0% vs. 17.6%) between two forest districts located in the same county; this finding questions the current county-resolution of public health recordings. Given the high seroprevalence of roe deer and the considerable explanatory power of our model, our approach appears suitable to delineate science-based risk maps at a smaller spatial scale and to abandon the current human incidence per county criterion. Importantly, using roe deer as sentinels would eliminate the inherent bias of risk maps based on human incidence (varying levels of immunization and exposure of humans).     

Fragmentation Impairs the Microclimate Buffering Effect of Tropical Forests

Background

Tropical forest species are among the most sensitive to changing climatic conditions, and the forest they inhabit helps to buffer their microclimate from the variable climatic conditions outside the forest. However, habitat fragmentation and edge effects exposes vegetation to outside microclimatic conditions, thereby reducing the ability of the forest to buffer climatic variation. In this paper, we ask what proportion of forest in a fragmented ecosystem is impacted by altered microclimate conditions driven by edge effects, and extrapolate these results to the whole Atlantic Forest biome, one of the most disturbed biodiversity hotspots. To address these questions, we collected above and below ground temperature for a full year using temperature sensors placed in forest fragments of different sizes, and at different distances from the forest edge.

Principal Findings

In the Atlantic forests of Brazil, we found that the buffering effect of forests reduced maximum outside temperatures by one third or more at ground level within a forest, with the buffering effect being stronger below-ground than one metre above-ground. The temperature buffering effect of forests was, however, reduced near forest edges with the edge effect extending up to 20 m inside the forest. The heavily fragmented nature of the Brazilian Atlantic forest means that 12% of the remaining biome experiences altered microclimate conditions.

Conclusions

Our results add further information about the extent of edge effects in the Atlantic Forest, and we suggest that maintaining a low perimeter-to-area ratio may be a judicious method for minimizing the amount of forest area that experiences altered microclimatic conditions in this ecosystem.     

Structure and Composition of Natural Gmelin Larch (Larix gmelinii var. gmelinii) Forests in Response to Spatial Climatic Changes

Background

Many theoretical researches predicted that the larch species would decrease drastically in China under future climatic changes. However, responses of the structural and compositional changes of Gmelin larch (Larix gmelinii var. gmelinii) forests to climatic changes have rarely been reported.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Field survey was conducted to examine the structures and compositions of natural Gmelin larch forests along a climatic gradient. Stepwise linear regression analyses incorporating linear and quadratic components of climatic and non-climatic factors were performed on the structural and compositional attributes of those natural Gmelin larch forests. Isothermality, Max Temperature of Warmest Month (TempWarmestMonth), Precipitation of Wettest Month (PrecipWettestMonth), Precipitation Seasonality (PrecipSeasonality) and Precipitation of Driest Quarter (PrecipDriestQuarter) were observed to be effective climatic factors in controlling structure and composition of Gmelin larch forests. Isothermality significantly affected total basal area of larch, while TempWarmestMonth, PrecipWettestMonth and PrecipSeasonality significantly affected total basal area of Mongolian pine, and PrecipDriestQuarter significantly affected mean DBH of larch, stand density of larch and total basal area of spruce and fir.

Conclusions/Significance

The summer and winter temperatures and precipitations are all predicted to increase in future in Northeast China. Our results showed the increase of total basal area of spruce and fir, the suppression of regeneration and the decrease of stand density of larch under increased winter precipitation, and the decrease of total basal area of larch under increased summer temperature in the region of current Gmelin larch forest. Therefore, we suggest that larch would decrease and spruce and fir would increase in the region of future Gmelin larch forest.     

Identifying ontogenetic, environmental and individual components of forest tree growth

Background and Aims

This study aimed to identify and characterize the ontogenetic, environmental and individual components of forest tree growth. In the proposed approach, the tree growth data typically correspond to the retrospective measurement of annual shoot characteristics (e.g. length) along the trunk.

Methods

Dedicated statistical models (semi-Markov switching linear mixed models) were applied to data sets of Corsican pine and sessile oak. In the semi-Markov switching linear mixed models estimated from these data sets, the underlying semi-Markov chain represents both the succession of growth phases and their lengths, while the linear mixed models represent both the influence of climatic factors and the inter-individual heterogeneity within each growth phase.

Key Results

On the basis of these integrative statistical models, it is shown that growth phases are not only defined by average growth level but also by growth fluctuation amplitudes in response to climatic factors and inter-individual heterogeneity and that the individual tree status within the population may change between phases. Species plasticity affected the response to climatic factors while tree origin, sampling strategy and silvicultural interventions impacted inter-individual heterogeneity.

Conclusions

The transposition of the proposed integrative statistical modelling approach to cambial growth in relation to climatic factors and the study of the relationship between apical growth and cambial growth constitute the next steps in this research.     

Polymorphisms in Chemokine Receptor 5 and Toll-Like Receptor 3 Genes Are Risk Factors for Clinical Tick-Borne Encephalitis in the Lithuanian Population

Background

Tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) infections can be asymptomatic or cause moderate to severe injuries of the nervous system. We previously reported that a nonfunctional chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5) and a functional Toll-like receptor 3 (TLR3) predispose adults to clinical tick-borne encephalitis (TBE). This study expands our previous findings and further examines polymorphisms in CCR5 and TLR3 genes in different age and disease severity groups.

Methods

117 children and 129 adults, stratified into mild, moderate and severe forms of TBE, and 103 adults with severe TBE were analyzed. 135 healthy individuals and 79 patients with aseptic meningoencephalitis served as controls. CCR5 delta 32 and rs3775291 TLR3 genotypes were established by pyrosequencing, and their frequencies were analyzed using recessive genetic, genotype and allelic models.

Findings

The prevalence of CCR5Δ32 homozygotes was higher in children (2.5%), in adults with severe TBE (1.9%), and in the combined cohort of TBE patients (2.3%) than in controls (0%) (p<0.05). The nonfunctional homozygous TLR3 genotype was less prevalent among the combined TBE cohort (11.5%) than among controls (19.9%) (p = 0.025), but did not differ between children TBE and controls. The genotype and allele prevalence of CCR5 and TLR3 did not differ in children nor adult TBE cohorts stratified by disease severity. However, in the severe adult TBE cohort, homozygous functional TLR3 genotype and wt allele were less prevalent compared to the adult cohort with the whole disease severity spectrum (44.4% vs 59.8% p = 0.022 and 65.2% vs 76.4% p = 0.009; respectively).

Conclusions

Independently of age, nonfunctional CCR5Δ32 mutation is a significant risk factor for development of clinical TBE, but not for disease severity. The polymorphism of TLR3 gene predisposes to clinical TBE in adults only and may be associated with disease severity. Further studies are needed to clarify the role of these polymorphisms in susceptibility to TBEV infection.     

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis and Sand Fly Fluctuations Are Associated with El Ni?o in Panamá

Background

Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) is a neglected tropical vector-borne disease. Sand fly vectors (SF) and Leishmania spp parasites are sensitive to changes in weather conditions, rendering disease transmission susceptible to changes in local and global scale climatic patterns. Nevertheless, it is unclear how SF abundance is impacted by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and how these changes might relate to changes in CL transmission.

Methodology and Findings

We studied association patterns between monthly time series, from January 2000 to December 2010, of: CL cases, rainfall and temperature from Panamá, and an ENSO index. We employed autoregressive models and cross wavelet coherence, to quantify the seasonal and interannual impact of local climate and ENSO on CL dynamics. We employed Poisson Rate Generalized Linear Mixed Models to study SF abundance patterns across ENSO phases, seasons and eco-epidemiological settings, employing records from 640 night-trap sampling collections spanning 2000–2011. We found that ENSO, rainfall and temperature were associated with CL cycles at interannual scales, while seasonal patterns were mainly associated with rainfall and temperature. Sand fly (SF) vector abundance, on average, decreased during the hot and cold ENSO phases, when compared with the normal ENSO phase, yet variability in vector abundance was largest during the cold ENSO phase. Our results showed a three month lagged association between SF vector abundance and CL cases.

Conclusion

Association patterns of CL with ENSO and local climatic factors in Panamá indicate that interannual CL cycles might be driven by ENSO, while the CL seasonality was mainly associated with temperature and rainfall variability. CL cases and SF abundance were associated in a fashion suggesting that sudden extraordinary changes in vector abundance might increase the potential for CL epidemic outbreaks, given that CL epidemics occur during the cold ENSO phase, a time when SF abundance shows its highest fluctuations.     

The Burden of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) for Slovenia

Background

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) presents an increasing burden in many parts of Europe, Asian Russia, Siberia, Asian former USSR and Far East. Incidence can be considered as one way to express the burden. A more comprehensive measure concerns disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), better characterizing the full burden of TBE. TBE burden in DALYs has not yet been estimated, nor has it been specified by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies.

Objective

The purpose of the present study is to estimate the burden of TBE in Slovenia, expressed in DALYs, both from the population and individual perspectives. We discuss the impact of TBE burden on public health and potential strategies to reduce this burden in Slovenia.

Methods

The burden of TBE is estimated by using the updated DALYs'' methodology first introduced in the GBD project. The DALYs᾽ calculations are based on the health outcomes of the natural course of the disease being modelled. Corrections for under-reporting and under-ascertainment are applied. The impact of uncertainty in parameters in the model was assessed using sensitivity analyses.

Results

From the population perspective, total DALYs amount to 3,450 (167.8 per 100,000 population), while from the individual perspective they amount to 3.1 per case in 2011. Notably, the consequences of TBE present a larger burden than TBE itself.

Conclusions

TBE presents a relatively high burden expressed in DALYs compared with estimates for other infectious diseases from the GBD 2010 study for Slovenia. Raising awareness and increasing vaccination coverage are needed to reduce TBE and its consequences.     

The modular organization of roe deer (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Capreolus capreolus</Emphasis>) body during ontogeny: the effects of sex and habitat

Background

As a small artiodactyl, the roe deer (Capreolus capreolus L.) is characterized by biological plasticity and great adaptability demonstrated by their survival under a wide variety of environmental conditions. In order to depict patterns of phenotypic variation of roe deer body this study aims to quantify variation during ontogenetic development and determine how sex-specific reproductive investment and non-uniform habitat differences relate to phenotypic variation and do these differential investments mold the patterns of phenotypic variation through modular organisation.

Results

Patterns of phenotypic correlation among body traits change during the ontogeny of roe deer, with differential influence of sex and habitat type. Modularity was found to be a feature of closed habitats with trunk+forelimbs+hindlimbs as the best supported integration/modularity hypothesis for both sexes. The indices of integration and evolvability vary with habitat type, age and sex where increased integration is followed by decreased evolvability.

Conclusion

This is the first study that quantifies patterns of correlation in the roe deer body and finds pronounced changes in correlation structure during ontogeny affected by sex and habitat type. The correlation structure of the roe deer body is developmentally written over the course of ontogeny but we do not exclude the influence of function on ontogenetic changes. Modularity arises with the onset of reproduction (subadults not being modular) and is differentially expressed in males and females from different habitats. Both adult males and females show modularity in primordial, closed habitats. Overall, all these findings are important as they provide support to the idea that modularity can evolve at the population level and change fast within a species.

     

Gap Dynamics and Structure of Two Old-Growth Beech Forest Remnants in Slovenia

Context

Due to a long history of intensive forest exploitation, few European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) old-growth forests have been preserved in Europe.

Material and Methods

We studied two beech forest reserves in southern Slovenia. We examined the structural characteristics of the two forest reserves based on data from sample plots and complete inventory obtained from four previous forest management plans. To gain a better understanding of disturbance dynamics, we used aerial imagery to study the characteristics of canopy gaps over an 11-year period in the Kopa forest reserve and a 20-year period in the Gorjanci forest reserve.

Results

The results suggest that these forests are structurally heterogeneous over small spatial scales. Gap size analysis showed that gaps smaller than 500 m² are the dominant driving force of stand development. The percentage of forest area in canopy gaps ranged from 3.2 to 4.5% in the Kopa forest reserve and from 9.1 to 10.6% in the Gorjanci forest reserve. These forests exhibit relatively high annual rates of coverage by newly established (0.15 and 0.25%) and closed (0.08 and 0.16%) canopy gaps. New gap formation is dependant on senescent trees located throughout the reserve.

Conclusion

We conclude that these stands are not even-sized, but rather unevenly structured. This is due to the fact that the disturbance regime is characterized by low intensity, small-scale disturbances.     

Composition and Structure of Pinus koraiensis Mixed Forest Respond to Spatial Climatic Changes

Background

Although some studies have indicated that climate changes can affect Pinus koraiensis mixed forest, the responses of composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forests to climatic changes are unknown and the key climatic factors controlling the composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest are uncertain.

Methodology/principal findings

Field survey was conducted in the natural Pinus koraiensis mixed forests along a latitudinal gradient and an elevational gradient in Northeast China. In order to build the mathematical models for simulating the relationships of compositional and structural attributes of the Pinus koraiensis mixed forest with climatic and non-climatic factors, stepwise linear regression analyses were performed, incorporating 14 dependent variables and the linear and quadratic components of 9 factors. All the selected new models were computed under the +2°C and +10% precipitation and +4°C and +10% precipitation scenarios. The Max Temperature of Warmest Month, Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter and Precipitation of Wettest Month were observed to be key climatic factors controlling the stand densities and total basal areas of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest. Increased summer temperatures and precipitations strongly enhanced the stand densities and total basal areas of broadleaf trees but had little effect on Pinus koraiensis under the +2°C and +10% precipitation scenario and +4°C and +10% precipitation scenario.

Conclusions/significance

These results show that the Max Temperature of Warmest Month, Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter and Precipitation of Wettest Month are key climatic factors which shape the composition and structure of Pinus koraiensis mixed forest. Although the Pinus koraiensis would persist, the current forests dominated by Pinus koraiensis in the region would all shift and become broadleaf-dominated forests due to the dramatic increase of broadleaf trees under the future global warming and increased precipitation.