Current and future potential distributions of three Dracaena Vand. ex L. species under two contrasting climate change scenarios in Africa

Forest undergrowth plants are tightly connected with the shady and humid conditions that occur under the canopy of tropical forests. However, projected climatic changes, such as decreasing precipitation and increasing temperature, negatively affect understory environments by promoting light‐demanding and drought‐tolerant species. Therefore, we aimed to quantify the influence of climate change on the spatial distribution of three selected forest undergrowth plants, Dracaena Vand. ex L. species, D. afromontana Mildbr., D. camerooniana Baker, and D. surculosa Lindl., simultaneously creating the most comprehensive location database for these species to date. A total of 1,223 herbarium records originating from tropical Africa and derived from 93 herbarium collections worldwide have been gathered, validated, and entered into a database. Species‐specific Maxent species distribution models (SDMs) based on 11 bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database were developed for the species. HadGEM2‐ES projections of bioclimatic variables in two contrasting representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, were used to quantify the changes in future potential species distribution. D. afromontana is mostly sensitive to temperature in the wettest month, and its potential geographical range is predicted to decrease (up to ?63.7% at RCP8.5). Optimum conditions for D. camerooniana are low diurnal temperature range (6–8°C) and precipitation in the wettest season exceeding 750 mm. The extent of this species will also decrease, but not as drastically as that of D. afromontana. D. surculosa prefers high precipitation in the coldest months. Its potential habitat area is predicted to increase in the future and to expand toward the east. This study developed SDMs and estimated current and future (year 2050) potential distributions of the forest undergrowth Dracaena species. D. afromontana, naturally associated with mountainous plant communities, was the most sensitive to predicted climate warming. In contrast, D. surculosa was predicted to extend its geographical range, regardless of the climate change scenario.     

Species richness, area and climate correlates

Aim Species richness–area theory predicts that more species should be found if one samples a larger area. To avoid biases from comparing species richness in areas of very different sizes, area is often controlled by counting the numbers of co‐occupying species in near‐equal area grid cells. The assumption is that variation in grid cell size accrued from working in a three‐dimensional world is negligible. Here we provide a first test of this idea. We measure the surface area of c. 50 × 50 km and c. 220 × 220 km grid cells across western Europe. We then ask how variation in the area of grid cells affects: (1) the selection of climate variables entering a species richness model; and (2) the accuracy of models in predicting species richness in unsampled grid cells. Location Western Europe. Methods Models are developed for European plant, breeding bird, mammal and herptile species richness using seven climate variables. Generalized additive models are used to relate species richness, climate and area. Results We found that variation in the grid cell area was large (50 × 50 km: 8–3311 km²; 220 × 220: 193–55,100 km²), but this did not affect the selection of variables in the models. Similarly, the predictive accuracy was affected only marginally by exclusion of area within models developed at the c. 50 × 50 km grid cells, although predictive accuracy suffered greater reductions when area was not included as a covariate in models developed for c. 220 × 220 km grid cells. Main conclusions Our results support the assumption that variation in near‐equal area cells may be of second‐order importance for models explaining or predicting species richness in relation to climate, although there is a possibility that drops in accuracy might increase with grid cell size. The results are, however, contingent on this particular data set, grain and extent of the analyses, and more empirical work is required.     

Distributional migrations,expansions, and contractions of tropical plant species as revealed in dated herbarium records

Species are predicted to respond to global warming through ‘cold‐ward’ shifts in their geographic distributions due to encroachment into newly suitable habitats and/or dieback in areas that become climatically unsuitable. I conduct one of the first‐ever tests of this hypothesis for tropical plant species. I test for changes in the thermal distributions of 239 South American tropical plant species using dated herbarium records for specimens collected between 1970 and 2009. Supporting a priori predictions, many species (59%) exhibit some evidence of significant cold‐ward range shifts even after correcting for collection biases. Over 1/3 of species (35%) show significant cold‐ward movement in their hot thermal limits (mean rate of change = 0.022 °C yr^?1). Most of these species (85%; 30% of all study species) show no corresponding shift in their cold thermal limits. These unbalanced changes in the species’ thermal range limits may indicate species that are experiencing dieback due to their intolerance of rising temperatures coupled with an inability to expand into newly climatically suitable habitats. On the other hand, 25% of species show significant cold‐ward shifts in their cold thermal range limits (mean rate of change = 0.003 °C yr^?1), but 80% of these species (20% of all study species) show no corresponding shift in their hot thermal range limits. In these cases, the unbalanced shifts may indicate species that are able to ‘benefit’ under global warming, at least temporally, by both tolerating rising temperatures and expanding into new suitable habitat. An important ancillary result of this study is that the number of species exhibiting significant range shifts was greatly influenced by shifting collector biases. This highlights the need to account for biases when analyzing natural history records or other long‐term records.     

Biogeo: an R package for assessing and improving data quality of occurrence record datasets

Occurrence data from museum and herbarium collections are valuable for mapping biodiversity patterns in space and time. Unfortunately these collections datasets contain many errors and suffer from several data quality issues that can influence the quality of the products derived from them. It is up to the user to identify these errors and data quality issues when using these data. Despite the large number of potential users of these datasets there are few software tools dedicated to error detection and correction of collections datasets. The R package biogeo was developed for detecting and correcting errors and for assessing of data quality of collections datasets consisting of occurrence records. Features of the package include error detection, such as mismatches between the recorded country and the country where the record is plotted, records of terrestrial species that fall into the sea and outlier detection. A key feature of the package is the ability to identify likely alternative positions for points that represent obvious errors in the dataset and functions to explore records in geographical and environmental space in order to identify possible errors in the dataset. Functions are also available for converting coordinates that are in various text formats into degrees, minutes and seconds and then into decimal degrees.     

Distribution, density, diet and productivity of the Scops Owl Otus scops in the Italian Alps

The Scops Owl Otus scops is probably the least known European owl. We surveyed Scops Owls in the Trento region (6200 km²) of the central–eastern Italian Alps between 1995 and 2003 and we intensively monitored a subpopulation in a 50‐km² plot between 2000 and 2003. In the whole region, we found 81 territories concentrated in 21, low‐elevation 100‐km² quadrats. Most territories were associated with villages surrounded by extensively managed grassland (79%), arid areas with rocky outcrops and xerophytic vegetation (12%) and/or large urban areas and parks (6%). In the 50‐km² plot, density varied between 52 and 64 territories/100 km² annually. Territories were either solitary or clumped in loose colonies of 2–7 pairs. In contrast to previous studies, most nests used for laying were in holes and cracks of buildings (95%, n = 20). This may have been favoured by thermal and foraging advantages, but also involved some costs, such as predation by domestic cats and collision with cars. Median laying date was 29 May (n = 16) and the mean number of fledged young was 1.37 (n = 30), 1.95 (n = 21) and 2.00 (n = 20) per territorial, breeding and successful pair, respectively. The diet was dominated by grasshoppers of the family Tettigoniidae. Compared to previous studies, this population showed medium to high density and low productivity. The species seems to be dependent on traditional, extensive agro‐pastoralism and the main conservation threats include habitat loss through land abandonment and consequent forest expansion, which are probably best halted through subsidy schemes. From our results and published data, we estimate the population of the Scops Owl in the Italian Alps at 230–500 territories. There is an urgent need for further data on this largely overlooked species, especially from its Mediterranean strongholds.     

Changes in the range of the medicinal herb Eriocaulon buergerianum Körnicke. (Eriocaulaceae) under climate change

• Eriocaulon buergerianum Körnicke. (Eriocaulaceae) is one of the most common and least expensive herbal medicines for eye disease. This species is facing potential threats from climate change. Insufficient biogeographic knowledge of this plant species can hinder its effective management for long‐term population survival.
• We integrated ecological niche modelling (Biomod2) with 70 records of E. buergerianum and eight environmental variables to estimate changes in distribution over time. A core area Zonation algorithm was introduced to identify conservation priority areas.
• Our results indicate that the range of E. buergerianum will likely decrease in the future: the overall range change on average is ?44.36 ± 21.56% (?3.70% to ?77.73%); values of range loss and range gain are 45.79 ± 20.30% (9.29–78.19%) and 1.43 ± 1.53% (0.18–5.59%), respectively. According to conservation priority analysis, the mandatory reserve (top 5%), negotiable reserve (0.95–0.9) and partial reserve (0.9–0.8) areas are 19,799, 19,799 and 39,597 km², respectively. The areas identified as conservation priority are located in the southeast, especially in northern Taiwan and the Wuyi Mountains.
• Based on these results, we suggest a re‐evaluation of the threatened status of this species, with a potential upgrade to the vulnerable (VU) category. To overcome the adverse conditions faced by populations of E. buergerianum in China, we propose a multi‐faceted conservation strategy involving more complete resource assessment, a monitoring system, medical research focused on revealing medicinal components or substitutes, and a regional development plan that considers both wildlife and socio‐economic issues.

     

Identifying refugia and corridors under climate change conditions for the Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana) in Hubei Province,China

Using a case study of an isolated management unit of Sichuan snub‐nosed monkey (Rhinopithecus roxellana), we assess the extent that climate change will impact the species’ habitat distribution in the current period and projected into the 2050s. We identify refugia that could maintain the population under climate change and determine dispersal paths for movement of the population to future suitable habitats. Hubei Province, China. We identified climate refugia and potential movements by integrating bioclimatic models with circuit theory and least‐cost model for the current period (1960–1990) and the 2050s (2041–2060). We coupled a maximum entropy algorithm to predict suitable habitat for the current and projected future periods. Suitable habitat areas that were identified during both time periods and that also satisfied home range and dispersal distance conditions were delineated as refugia. We mapped potential movements measured as current flow and linked current and future habitats using least‐cost corridors. Our results indicate up to 1,119 km² of currently suitable habitat within the study range. Based on our projections, a habitat loss of 67.2% due to climate change may occur by the 2050s, resulting in a reduced suitable habitat area of 406 km² and very little new habitat. The refugia areas amounted to 286 km² and were located in Shennongjia National Park and Badong Natural Reserve. Several connecting corridors between the current and future habitats, which are important for potential movements, were identified. Our assessment of the species predicted a trajectory of habitat loss following anticipated future climate change. We believe conservation efforts should focus on refugia and corridors when planning for future species management. This study will assist conservationists in determining high‐priority regions for effective maintenance of the endangered population under climate change and will encourage increased habitat connectivity.     

Distribution and population structure of the anther smut Microbotryum silenes‐acaulis parasitizing an arctic–alpine plant

Cold‐adapted organisms with current arctic–alpine distributions have persisted during the last glaciation in multiple ice‐free refugia, leaving footprints in their population structure that contrast with temperate plants and animals. However, pathogens that live within hosts having arctic–alpine distributions have been little studied. Here, we therefore investigated the geographical range and population structure of a fungus parasitizing an arctic–alpine plant. A total of 1437 herbarium specimens of the plant Silene acaulis were examined, and the anther smut pathogen Microbotryum silenes‐acaulis was present throughout the host's geographical range. There was significantly greater incidence of anther smut disease in more northern latitudes and where the host locations were less dense, indicating a major influence of environmental factors and/or host demographic structure on the pathogen distribution. Genetic analyses with seven microsatellite markers on recent collections of 195 M. silenes‐acaulis individuals revealed three main genetic clusters, in North America, northern Europe and southern Europe, likely corresponding to differentiation in distinct refugia during the last glaciation. The lower genetic diversity in northern Europe indicates postglacial recolonization northwards from southern refugia. This study combining herbarium surveys and population genetics thus uniquely reveals the effects of climate and environmental factors on a plant pathogen species with an arctic–alpine distribution.     

Biogeography and macroecology of phorid flies that attack fire ants in south-eastern Brazil and Argentina

Aim Saevissima group fire ants, Solenopsis richteri and S. invicta, have become serious pests when introduced from Argentina and Brazil to other continents. In South America, Solenopsis are distributed across a great variety of habitats and climates. In North America, S. invicta, introduced free of phorids, now ranges from coast to coast in the south. Success in introducing particular Pseudacteon as agents for the biological control of fire ants has varied across climatic zones. We aimed at assembling all the information about fire ant phorids from Argentina and Brazil, to estimate their richness and geographical ranges, to perform a climatic analysis for these distributions, to define groups and climate‐based communities, and to test and elucidate Rapoport's biogeographical rule. Location Argentina and Brazil (South America). Methods From field and museum collections and historical records, we developed a database of fire ant‐specific phorids throughout their known geographical range. A total of 123 sites with values for 15 climatic variables were mapped between 10° and 38° SL and between 35° and 65° C WL for the presence/absence of phorids. We calculated species richness across all sites combined, and for each phytogeographical region, using rarefaction curves, and ICE and Mmean estimators. We calculated mid‐latitudinal points, geographical ranges and areas for each species. The correlation between mid‐latitudinal point and ranges/areas was tested against a null model generated from the randomization of the raw distributional data. We used several types of multivariate analyses to distinguish groups of phorids by phytogeographical regions, hosts and climate, to find gradients of climate throughout the studied area, to define phorid communities in terms of their relationships with gradients of climate, and to test a mechanism for Rapoport's rule. Results Richness estimations using ICE and Mmean estimators were similar or higher than the observed values depending on the phytogeographical region. Cluster multivariate analyses based on climatic, phytogeographic and host data revealed distinct groupings of Pseudacton. The ‘cerrado’ group was confined to tropical savanna areas. A more ‘widespread’ group included ‘Chaco’ and ‘Maritime’ subgroups defined by their respective association with extreme temperatures or precipitation. Ordination multivariate analyses showed (1) two climatic gradients throughout the study area: one of temperature and the other of precipitation, and (2) that climatic variables significantly explained the observed assemblages of phorids. Positive and negative signs of the eigenvalues from the main axes of a canonical correspondence analysis allowed us to define eight communities whose geographical distribution resembled that of phytogeographical regions. We found a significant and positive correlation between geographical areas and mid latitudinal points, and furthermore, the Mantel test based on climatic variables suggested a mechanism for Rapoport's rule applying in the case of Pseudacteon. Main conclusions Pseudacteon species with greater mid‐latitudinal points occupy broader geographical areas and confront more stressful environmental conditions. Because the composition of Pseudacteon communities is largely determined by climatic variables, the correspondence between climates at sites of origin vs. sites of release should be an important consideration in choosing specific phorids for biocontrol efforts.     

Applying climatically associated species pools to the modelling of compositional change in tropical montane forests

Aim Predictive species distribution modelling is a useful tool for extracting the maximum amount of information from biological collections and floristic inventories. However, in many tropical regions records are only available from a small number of sites. This can limit the application of predictive modelling, particularly in the case of rare and endangered species. We aim to address this problem by developing a methodology for defining and mapping species pools associated with climatic variables in order to investigate potential species turnover and regional species loss under climate change scenarios combined with anthropogenic disturbance. Location The study covered an area of 6800 km² in the highlands of Chiapas, southern Mexico. Methods We derived climatically associated species pools from floristic inventory data using multivariate analysis combined with spatially explicit discriminant analysis. We then produced predictive maps of the distribution of tree species pools using data derived from 451 inventory plots. After validating the predictive power of potential distributions against an independent historical data set consisting of 3105 botanical collections, we investigated potential changes in the distribution of tree species resulting from forest disturbance and climate change. Results Two species pools, associated with moist and cool climatic conditions, were identified as being particularly threatened by both climate change and ongoing anthropogenic disturbance. A change in climate consistent with low‐emission scenarios of general circulation models was shown to be sufficient to cause major changes in equilibrium forest composition within 50 years. The same species pools were also found to be suffering the fastest current rates of deforestation and internal forest disturbance. Disturbance and deforestation, in combination with climate change, threaten the regional distributions of five tree species listed as endangered by the IUCN. These include the endemic species Magnolia sharpii Miranda and Wimmeria montana Lundell. Eleven vulnerable species and 34 species requiring late successional conditions for their regeneration could also be threatened. Main conclusions Climatically associated species pools can be derived from floristic inventory data available for tropical regions using methods based on multivariate analysis even when data limitations prevent effective application of individual species modelling. Potential consequences of climate change and anthropogenic disturbance on the species diversity of montane tropical forests in our study region are clearly demonstrated by the method.     

An elevational shift of cryophilous bryophytes in the last century – an effect of climate warming?

Aim To investigate altitudinal range shifts of bryophytes in Switzerland by comparing recent altitudinal distributions with historical distributions derived from herbarium specimens. Location Switzerland, covering 41,285 km² in Central Europe. Methods We used a dataset of 8520 herbarium specimens of 61 bryophyte species and compared altitudinal data between the two periods 1880–1920 and 1980–2005. The records we used were not specifically sampled for climatological analyses, but originate from non‐systematic fieldwork by various collectors. Historical and recent records were distributed all over Switzerland with occurrences in all major biogeographical areas. To account for different sampling efforts in the two time periods, different subsampling procedures were applied. Results Overall, we found a significant mean increase in altitude of 89 ± 29 m which was mainly driven by the cryophilous species (+222 ± 50 m). The mean increase in altitude of cryophilous species corresponds to a decadal upward shift of 24 m. The upper range limit of cryophilous species also increased by 189 ± 55 m, but there was no effect on the lower range limit. For intermediate and thermophilous species neither mean, nor upper or lower range limits changed. However, the proportion of records of thermophilous to cryophilous species increased considerably at lower altitudes, but levelled off above approximately 1800 m. Main conclusions We conclude that cryophilous bryophytes are expanding their range to higher elevations in Switzerland and that at lower elevations, a slow extinction process is going on, probably as a result of climate warming trends. The observed decadal upward shifts of cryophilous species closely match those reported from vascular plants in Europe and those expected, given recent estimates of climate warming trends. We emphasize that herbaria provide valuable data that can be used to detect ongoing changes in the distribution of species.     

Time‐since‐fire and climate interact to affect the structural recovery of an Australian semi‐arid plant community

How does time‐since‐fire influence the structural recovery of semi‐arid, eucalypt‐dominated Murray‐Mallee shrublands after fire, and is recovery affected by spatial variation in climate? We assessed the structure and dynamics of a hummock grass, Triodia scariosa N.T. Burb, and mallee eucalypts – two key structural components of mallee shrublands – using a >100 year time‐since‐fire chronosequence. The relative influence of climatic variables, both individually and combined with time‐since‐fire, was modelled to account for spatial variation in the recovery of vegetation structural components. Time‐since‐fire was the primary determinant of the structural recovery of T. scariosa and eucalypts. However, climate, notably mean annual rainfall and rainfall variability, also influenced the recovery of the eucalypt overstorey, T. scariosa cover and mean hummock height. We observed that (i) the mean number of live eucalypt stems per individual decreased while mean individual basal area increased, (ii) cover of T. scariosa peaked at ~30 years post‐fire and gradually decreased thereafter, and (iii) the ‘hummock’ form of T. scariosa occurred throughout the chronosequence, whereas the ‘ring’ form tended not to occur until ~30 years post‐fire. Time‐since‐fire was the key determinant of the structural recovery of eucalypt‐dominated mallee shrublands, but there is geographical variation in recovery related to rainfall and its variability. Fire regimes are likely to have different effects across the geographic range of mallee shrublands.     

Herbarium specimens reveal the footprint of climate change on flowering trends across north‐central North America

Shifting flowering phenology with rising temperatures is occurring worldwide, but the rarity of co‐occurring long‐term observational and temperature records has hindered the evaluation of phenological responsiveness in many species and across large spatial scales. We used herbarium specimens combined with historic temperature data to examine the impact of climate change on flowering trends in 141 species collected across 116,000 km² in north‐central North America. On average, date of maximum flowering advanced 2.4 days °C⁻¹, although species‐specific responses varied from − 13.5 to + 7.3 days °C⁻¹. Plant functional types exhibited distinct patterns of phenological responsiveness with significant differences between native and introduced species, among flowering seasons, and between wind‐ and biotically pollinated species. This study is the first to assess large‐scale patterns of phenological responsiveness with broad species representation and is an important step towards understanding current and future impacts of climate change on species performance and biodiversity.     

Bioclimatic evaluation of geographical range in Fragaria (Rosaceae): consequences of variation in breeding system,ploidy and species age

The evaluation of the intrinsic and extrinsic forces that determine geographical range sizes and niche breadth is key to the understanding of species distributions and for informing the conservation of biodiversity. Fragaria (Rosaceae) contains the economically important cultivated strawberry (Fragaria × ananassa subsp. ananassa) and numerous wild species. Using georeferenced species records and global bioclimatic data, we describe the bioclimatic niches for 21 Fragaria spp. and investigate the relationship between their niches and geographical range size, breeding system, ploidy and time since divergence. We found no evidence of phylogenetic signal for bioclimatic niches. There was also no relationship between ploidy and geographical or bioclimatic range area, but geographical range area was significantly greater for species that were capable of self‐fertilization. In addition, we found a significant decelerating relationship between species age and geographical range area. Overall, our results suggest that Fragaria spp., although similar in morphology and life history, show high levels of divergence in bioclimatic niches and significant over‐dispersion along some bioclimatic gradients, suggesting evolutionary lability in physiology and climate tolerance. As a consequence, wild species will remain a valuable resource for cultivated strawberry sustainability, especially under changing future climate. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 176 , 99–114.     

Predicting species distributions from herbarium collections: does climate bias in collection sampling influence model outcomes?

Aim Species distribution models and geographical information system (GIS) technologies are becoming increasingly important tools in conservation planning and decision‐making. Often the rich data bases of museums and herbaria serve as the primary data for predicting species distributions. Yet key assumptions about the primary data often are untested, and violation of such assumptions may have consequences for model predictions. For example, users of primary data assume that sampling has been random with respect to geography and environmental gradients. Here we evaluate the assumption that plant voucher specimens adequately sample the climatic gradient and test whether violation of this assumption influences model predictions. Location Bolivia and Ecuador. Methods Using 323,711 georeferenced herbarium collections and nine climatic variables, we predicted the distribution of 76 plant species using maximum entropy models (MAXENT) with training points that sampled the climate environments randomly and training points that reflected the climate bias in the herbarium collections. To estimate the distribution of species, MAXENT finds the distribution of maximum entropy (i.e. closest to uniform) subject to the constraint that the expected value for each environmental variable under the estimated distribution matches its empirical average. The experimental design included species that differed in geographical range and elevation; all species were modelled with 20 and 100 training points. We examined the influence of the number of training points and climate bias in training points, elevation and range size on model performance using analysis of variance models. Results We found that significant parts of the climatic gradient were poorly represented in herbarium collections for both countries. For the most part, existing climatic bias in collections did not greatly affect distribution predictions when compared with an unbiased data set. Although the effects of climate bias on prediction accuracy were found to be greater where geographical ranges were characterized by high spatial variation in the degree of climate bias (i.e. ranges where the bias of the various climates sampled by collections deviated considerably from the mean bias), the greatest influence on model performance was the number of presence points used to train the model. Main conclusions These results demonstrate that predictions of species distributions can be quite good despite existing climatic biases in primary data found in natural history collections, if a sufficiently large number of training points is available. Because of consistent overprediction of models, these results also confirm the importance of validating models with independent data or expert opinion. Failure to include independent model validation, especially in cases where training points are limited, may potentially lead to grave errors in conservation decision‐making and planning.     

Continental fire density patterns in South America

Aims Quantification of the effects and interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors, including climate, canopy structure, land use and management conditions, on vegetation burning. The study of these relationships is fundamental to predict regional fire patterns and develop sound management and regulation policies for biomass burning at national and global levels. Location Southern South America, including Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Bolivia and Chile. Methods Based on National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration–Advance Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA–AVHRR) satellite images, we identified fires in southern South America with a daily frequency for two periods (1999/2000 and 2000/01) using a contextual fire detection algorithm and integrating the density of these fires at a monthly scale into a 0.5 × 0.5° grid. We combined vegetation and climate global databases and land use information from national census data to explore the relationship of these factors with fires across the region. Results The whole study region had a mean fire density of 0.10 and 0.05 fires km^?2 year^?1 in 1999/2000 and 2000/01, respectively, with extreme values as high as 1.37 in fires km^?2 year^?1 in Para State, Brazil. Water deficit estimates, derived from a climatic water balance, showed the better correlation with fire density (r = 0.28; P < 0.001; n = 4467), interacting strongly with land use. In areas with low agricultural use fire density increased with water deficit, whereas in highly agricultural areas this relationship was not observed. Agriculture significantly reduced fire density in prairies and savannas but increased its frequency in rain forests. Main conclusions These results suggest that agriculture prevents biomass burning in semiarid areas but enhances it in humid environments, where biomass accumulates at faster rates.     

The roles of landscape context, niche breadth, and range boundaries in predicting species responses to habitat alteration

Extant species in human‐dominated landscapes differ in their sensitivity to habitat loss and fragmentation, although extinctions induced by environmental alteration reduce variation and result in a surviving subset of species with some degree of ‘resistance’. Here, we test the degree to which variable responses to habitat alteration are (1) essentially an inherent property of a taxon subject to constraints imposed by its geographical range, as suggested by Swihart et al. (2003), (2) a function of the landscape in which a species occurs, or (3) a function of spatial trends occurring on large scales. We used data collected on 33 vertebrate species during 2001–04 across the upper Wabash River basin, Indiana, in 35 square ‘landscapes’, each 23 km² in size. Six species of forest rodent, six species of grassland rodents, seven species of bats, eight species of aquatic turtles, and six species of amphibians were sampled at 504, 212, 590, 228, and 625 patches, respectively. The fraction of patches of primary habitat (e.g. forests for tree squirrels, wetlands for aquatic turtles) occupied by a target species was used as a response variable. On a basin‐wide scale, 47% of variation in proportional occupancy among species could be explained by taxon‐specific variables; occupancy rates were related positively to niche breadth and negatively to the proximity of a geographical range boundary. After controlling for species effects, landscape‐level occupancy rates varied significantly for 16 of 33 species, with variation partitioned among landscape variables alone (mean = 11% of variation), spatial trend variables alone (26%), and both variable sets jointly (8%). Among landscape variables, percentage forest cover positively affected occupancy rates of three bat species and a tree squirrel. Variation in occupancy rates among landscapes was consistent with large‐scale spatial trends for 13 species. Our findings demonstrate the general importance of niche breadth as a predictor of species responses to habitat alteration and highlight the importance of viewing the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation at multiple spatial scales.     

Predicted range expansion of the invasive fire ant, Solenopsis invicta, in the eastern United States based on the VEMAP global warming scenario

The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta Buren, is an invasive pest from South America that currently occupies much of the south‐eastern USA. Global warming is likely to allow range expansion of many invasive species, including S. invicta. We used a dynamic, ecophysiological model of fire ant colony growth coupled with models simulating climate change to predict the potential range expansion of S. invicta in the eastern USA over the next century. The climate change scenario predicted by the Vegetation–Ecosystem Modelling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) was used in our analyses. Our predictions indicate that the habitable area for S. invicta may increase by c. 5% over the next 40–50 years (a northward expansion of 33 ± 35 km). As the pace of global warming is expected to quicken in the latter half of the century, however, the habitable area for S. invicta in 2100 is predicted to be > 21% greater than it currently is (a northward expansion of 133 ± 68 km). Because the black imported fire ant, S. richteri Forel, occupies higher latitudes than S. invicta, the overall area of the eastern USA infested with invasive Solenopsis species could be greater than that estimated here.     

Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km²) suggest that fine‐grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate‐change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine‐grained thermal variability across a 2500‐km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000‐m² units (community‐inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1‐km² units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1‐km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100‐km² units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46–72% of variation in LmT and 92–96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing‐season CiT range within 1‐km² units peaked at 60–65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography‐related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing‐season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing‐season CiT within 100‐km² units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km^?1) than spatial turnover in growing‐season GiT (0.18 °C km^?1). We conclude that thermal variability within 1‐km² units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.     

Preliminary bonobo and chimpanzee nesting by habitat type in the northern Lac Tumba Landscape,Democratic Republic of Congo

Knowing how habitat determines the distribution of great apes is essential for understanding their ecology and conservation requirements. Habitats in the northern Lac Tumba Landscape where this study was conducted are mostly swamp and flooded forests, which types have been overlooked in many great ape surveys. This study describes and discusses patterns of bonobo and chimpanzee nesting sites across these habitat types in the general scope of habitat use by great apes. Considerable efforts were deployed to survey forests of the Ngiri Triangle (186 km), Bomongo‐Lubengo (126 km) and Bolombo‐Losombo (112 km). Great ape nesting site encounter rates (r) were calculated for Bonobos (r = 0.21 nesting sites km^?1; Bolombo‐Losombo), chimpanzees (r = 0.11 nesting sites km^?1; Ngiri Triangle) and (r = 0.02 nesting sites km^?1; Bomongo‐Lubengo). Swamps and flooded forests dominated the three zones. Nesting sites were at the highest encounter rates in flooded forests; both great ape species were significantly associated with swampy and flood forests. Human signs did not influence the occurrence of nesting sites in these forests. These results confirm findings from other sites where great apes were observed using swamps; they suggest that future surveys include these types of habitat to avoid under‐estimating population sizes.