Evolutionary insights from studies of geographic variation: Contemporary variation and looking to the future

In an age of rapid global change, it is imperative that we continue to improve our understanding of factors that govern genetic differentiation in plants to inform biologically reasonable predictions for the future and enlighten conservation and restoration practices. In this special issue, we have assembled a set of original research and reviews that employ diverse approaches, both classic and contemporary, to illuminate patterns of phenotypic and genetic variation, probe the underlying evolutionary processes that have contributed to these patterns, build predictive models, and test evolutionary hypotheses. Our goal was to underscore the unique insights that can be obtained through the complementary and distinct studies of plant populations across species' geographic ranges.     

Intraspecific trait variation across scales: implications for understanding global change responses

Recognition of the importance of intraspecific variation in ecological processes has been growing, but empirical studies and models of global change have only begun to address this issue in detail. This review discusses sources and patterns of intraspecific trait variation and their consequences for understanding how ecological processes and patterns will respond to global change. We examine how current ecological models and theories incorporate intraspecific variation, review existing data sources that could help parameterize models that account for intraspecific variation in global change predictions, and discuss new data that may be needed. We provide guidelines on when it is most important to consider intraspecific variation, such as when trait variation is heritable or when nonlinear relationships are involved. We also highlight benefits and limitations of different model types and argue that many common modeling approaches such as matrix population models or global dynamic vegetation models can allow a stronger consideration of intraspecific trait variation if the necessary data are available. We recommend that existing data need to be made more accessible, though in some cases, new experiments are needed to disentangle causes of variation.     

Estimating population abundance in plant species with dormant life-stages: Fire and the endangered plant Grevillea caleyi R. Br.

Summary Assessment of the conservation significance of a species at a particular site involves estimating the population size. Generally this is based on a single survey. However, where plant species vary greatly in abundance in response to disturbance regimes, there will be uncertainty associated with the use of single estimates of abundance. The interpretation of such estimates is dependent on an understanding of the ecology of the species and the disturbance regimes that impact on it. We examined the usefulness of abundance estimates in the endangered shrub Grevillea caleyi (a fire‐sensitive shrub with a persistent soil seed bank) from south‐eastern Australia, where fire is a major landscape disturbance. Comparisons of estimates of abundance before and after fire showed very large changes in the number of plants of G. caleyi above ground. Changes in abundance of over two orders of magnitude were observed. The longer the site was left unburnt, the greater the magnitude of change in abundance after the next fire. Above‐ground plants may be rare or absent at sites unburnt for over 15–20 years, but were abundant after fire, due to re‐establishment from the soil seed bank. Sites burnt by two fires in quick succession showed declines in population abundance, most likely due to the soil seed bank not being replenished between such short interval fires. Assessments of the conservation significance of remnant sites of G. caleyi and similar species based on a single sample of above‐ground plant abundance at one time are considered inappropriate. The amount of available habitat for G. caleyi, either as area of occupancy or preferably extent of available habitat, was a moderate predictor of the likely magnitude of abundance in the species after fire. However, the usefulness of these measures for species whose biology is comparable to Grevillea caleyi, will be limited due to factors relating to the degree of species‐specific habitat requirements, local site fire history and the impact of any one fire on resultant post‐fire germination levels. Any assessment of conservation significance will require the interpretation of available information in relation to the ecology of a species.     

Role of phenotypic plasticity and population differentiation in adaptation to novel environmental conditions

Species can adapt to new environmental conditions either through individual phenotypic plasticity, intraspecific genetic differentiation in adaptive traits, or both. Wild emmer wheat, Triticum dicoccoides, an annual grass with major distribution in Eastern Mediterranean region, is predicted to experience in the near future, as a result of global climate change, conditions more arid than in any part of the current species distribution. To understand the role of the above two means of adaptation, and the effect of population range position, we analyzed reaction norms, extent of plasticity, and phenotypic selection across two experimental environments of high and low water availability in two core and two peripheral populations of this species. We studied 12 quantitative traits, but focused primarily on the onset of reproduction and maternal investment, which are traits that are closely related to fitness and presumably involved in local adaptation in the studied species. We hypothesized that the population showing superior performance under novel environmental conditions will either be genetically differentiated in quantitative traits or exhibit higher phenotypic plasticity than the less successful populations. We found the core population K to be the most plastic in all three trait categories (phenology, reproductive traits, and fitness) and most successful among populations studied, in both experimental environments; at the same time, the core K population was clearly genetically differentiated from the two edge populations. Our results suggest that (1) two means of successful adaptation to new environmental conditions, phenotypic plasticity and adaptive genetic differentiation, are not mutually exclusive ways of achieving high adaptive ability; and (2) colonists from some core populations can be more successful in establishing beyond the current species range than colonists from the range extreme periphery with conditions seemingly closest to those in the new environment.     

Landscape genomics and a common garden trial reveal adaptive differentiation to temperature across Europe in the tree species Alnus glutinosa

The adaptive potential of tree species to cope with climate change has important ecological and economic implications. Many temperate tree species experience a wide range of environmental conditions, suggesting high adaptability to new environmental conditions. We investigated adaptation to regional climate in the drought‐sensitive tree species Alnus glutinosa (Black alder), using a complementary approach that integrates genomic, phenotypic and landscape data. A total of 24 European populations were studied in a common garden and through landscape genomic approaches. Genotyping‐by‐sequencing was used to identify SNPs across the genome, resulting in 1990 SNPs. Although a relatively low percentage of putative adaptive SNPs was detected (2.86% outlier SNPs), we observed clear associations among outlier allele frequencies, temperature and plant traits. In line with the typical drought avoiding nature of A. glutinosa, leaf size varied according to a temperature gradient and significant associations with multiple outlier loci were observed, corroborating the ecological relevance of the observed outlier SNPs. Moreover, the lack of isolation by distance, the very low genetic differentiation among populations and the high intrapopulation genetic variation all support the notion that high gene exchange combined with strong environmental selection promotes adaptation to environmental cues.     

Resurrecting complexity: the interplay of plasticity and rapid evolution in the multiple trait response to strong changes in predation pressure in the water flea Daphnia magna

A resurrection ecology reconstruction of 14 morphological, life history and behavioural traits revealed that a natural Daphnia magna population rapidly tracked changes in fish predation by integrating phenotypic plasticity and widespread evolutionary changes both in mean trait values and in trait plasticity. Increased fish predation mainly generated rapid adaptive evolution of plasticity (especially in the presence of maladaptive ancestral plasticity) resulting in an important change in the magnitude and direction of the multivariate reaction norm. Subsequent relaxation of the fish predation pressure resulted in reversed phenotypic plasticity and mainly caused evolution of the trait means towards the ancestral pre‐fish means. Relaxation from fish predation did, however, not result in a complete reversal to the ancestral fishless multivariate phenotype. Our study emphasises that the study population rapidly tracked environmental changes through a mosaic of plasticity, evolution of trait means and evolution of plasticity to generate integrated phenotypic changes in multiple traits.     

Changes in species interactions across a 2.5 km elevation gradient: effects on plant migration in response to climate change

Predicted climate change in the Andes will require plant species to migrate upslope to avoid extinction. Central to predictions of species responses to climate change is an understanding of species distributions along environmental gradients. Environmental gradients are frequently modelled as abiotic, but biotic interactions can play important roles in setting species distributions, abundances, and life history traits. Biotic interactions also have the potential to influence species responses to climate change, yet they remain mostly unquantified. An important interaction long studied in tropical forests is postdispersal seed predation which has been shown to affect the population dynamics, community structure, and diversity of plant species in time and space. This paper presents a comparative seed predation study of 24 species of tropical trees across a 2.5 km elevation gradient in the Peruvian Andes and quantifies seed predation variation across the elevational gradient. We then use demographic modelling to assess effects of the observed variation in seed predation on population growth rates in response to observed increasing temperatures in the area. We found marked variation among species in total seed predation depending on the major seed predator of the species and consistent changes in seed predation across the gradient. There was a significant increase in seed survival with increasing elevation, a trend that appears to be driven by regulation of seed predators via top–down forces in the lowlands giving way to bottom–up (productivity) regulation at mid‐ to high elevations, resulting in a ninefold increase in effective fecundity for trees at high elevations. This potential increase in seed crop size strongly affects modelled plant population growth and seed dispersal distances, increasing population migration potential in the face of climate change. These results also indicate that species interactions can have effects on par with climate in species responses to global change.     

A change in climate causes rapid evolution of multiple life-history traits and their interactions in an annual plant

Climate change is likely to spur rapid evolution, potentially altering integrated suites of life-history traits. We examined evolutionary change in multiple life-history traits of the annual plant Brassica rapa collected before and after a recent 5-year drought in southern California. We used a direct approach to examining evolutionary change by comparing ancestors and descendants. Collections were made from two populations varying in average soil moisture levels, and lines propagated from the collected seeds were grown in a greenhouse and experimentally subjected to conditions simulating either drought (short growing season) or high precipitation (long growing season) years. Comparing ancestors and descendants, we found that the drought caused many changes in life-history traits, including a shift to earlier flowering, longer duration of flowering, reduced peak flowering and greater skew of the flowering schedule. Descendants had thinner stems and fewer leaf nodes at the time of flowering than ancestors, indicating that the drought selected for plants that flowered at a smaller size and earlier ontogenetic stage rather than selecting for plants to develop more rapidly. Thus, there was not evidence for absolute developmental constraints to flowering time evolution. Common principal component analyses showed substantial differences in the matrix of trait covariances both between short and long growing season treatments and between populations. Although the covariances matrices were generally similar between ancestors and descendants, there was evidence for complex evolutionary changes in the relationships among the traits, and these changes depended on the population and treatment. These results show that a full appreciation of the impacts of global change on phenotypic evolution will entail an understanding of how changes in climatic conditions affect trait values and the structure of relationships among traits.     

Spatiotemporal landscape genetics: Investigating ecology and evolution through space and time

Genetic time‐series data from historical samples greatly facilitate inference of past population dynamics and species evolution. Yet, although climate and landscape change are often touted as post‐hoc explanations of biological change, our understanding of past climate and landscape change influences on evolutionary processes is severely hindered by the limited application of methods that directly relate environmental change to species dynamics through time. Increased integration of spatiotemporal environmental and genetic data will revolutionize the interpretation of environmental influences on past population processes and the quantification of recent anthropogenic impacts on species, and vastly improve prediction of species responses under future climate change scenarios, yielding widespread revelations across evolutionary biology, landscape ecology and conservation genetics. This review encourages greater use of spatiotemporal landscape genetic analyses that explicitly link landscape, climate and genetic data through time by providing an overview of analytical approaches for integrating historical genetic and environmental data in five key research areas: population genetic structure, demography, phylogeography, metapopulation connectivity and adaptation. We also include a tabular summary of key methodological information, suggest approaches for mitigating the particular difficulties in applying these techniques to ancient DNA and palaeoclimate data, and highlight areas for future methodological development.     

Characterizing the contribution of plasticity and genetic differentiation to community‐level trait responses to environmental change

The match between functional trait variation in communities and environmental gradients is maintained by three processes: phenotypic plasticity and genetic differentiation (intraspecific processes), and species turnover (interspecific). Recently, evidence has emerged suggesting that intraspecific variation might have a potentially large role in driving functional community composition and response to environmental change. However, empirical evidence quantifying the respective importance of phenotypic plasticity and genetic differentiation relative to species turnover is still lacking. We performed a reciprocal transplant experiment using a common herbaceous plant species (Oxalis montana) among low‐, mid‐, and high‐elevation sites to first quantify the contributions of plasticity and genetic differentiation in driving intraspecific variation in three traits: height, specific leaf area, and leaf area. We next compared the contributions of these intraspecific drivers of community trait–environment matching to that of species turnover, which had been previously assessed along the same elevational gradient. Plasticity was the dominant driver of intraspecific trait variation across elevation in all traits, with only a small contribution of genetic differentiation among populations. Local adaptation was not detected to a major extent along the gradient. Fitness components were greatest in O. montana plants with trait values closest to the local community‐weighted means, thus supporting the common assumption that community‐weighted mean trait values represent selective optima. Our results suggest that community‐level trait responses to ongoing climate change should be mostly mediated by species turnover, even at the small spatial scale of our study, with an especially small contribution of evolutionary adaptation within species.     

Rapid genome‐wide evolution in Brassica rapa populations following drought revealed by sequencing of ancestral and descendant gene pools

There is increasing evidence that evolution can occur rapidly in response to selection. Recent advances in sequencing suggest the possibility of documenting genetic changes as they occur in populations, thus uncovering the genetic basis of evolution, particularly if samples are available from both before and after selection. Here, we had a unique opportunity to directly assess genetic changes in natural populations following an evolutionary response to a fluctuation in climate. We analysed genome‐wide differences between ancestors and descendants of natural populations of Brassica rapa plants from two locations that rapidly evolved changes in multiple phenotypic traits, including flowering time, following a multiyear late‐season drought in California. These ancestor‐descendant comparisons revealed evolutionary shifts in allele frequencies in many genes. Some genes showing evolutionary shifts have functions related to drought stress and flowering time, consistent with an adaptive response to selection. Loci differentiated between ancestors and descendants (F_ST outliers) were generally different from those showing signatures of selection based on site frequency spectrum analysis (Tajima's D), indicating that the loci that evolved in response to the recent drought and those under historical selection were generally distinct. Very few genes showed similar evolutionary responses between two geographically distinct populations, suggesting independent genetic trajectories of evolution yielding parallel phenotypic changes. The results show that selection can result in rapid genome‐wide evolutionary shifts in allele frequencies in natural populations, and highlight the usefulness of combining resurrection experiments in natural populations with genomics for studying the genetic basis of adaptive evolution.     

Widespread parallel population adaptation to climate variation across a radiation: implications for adaptation to climate change

Global warming will impact species in a number of ways, and it is important to know the extent to which natural populations can adapt to anthropogenic climate change by natural selection. Parallel microevolution within separate species can demonstrate natural selection, but several studies of homoplasy have not yet revealed examples of widespread parallel evolution in a generic radiation. Taking into account primary phylogeographic divisions, we investigate numerous quantitative traits (size, shape, scalation, colour pattern and hue) in anole radiations from the mountainous Lesser Antillean islands. Adaptation to climatic differences can lead to very pronounced differences between spatially close populations with all studied traits showing some evidence of parallel evolution. Traits from shape, scalation, pattern and hue (particularly the latter) show widespread evolutionary parallels within these species in response to altitudinal climate variation greater than extreme anthropogenic climate change predicted for 2080. This gives strong evidence of the ability to adapt to climate variation by natural selection throughout this radiation. As anoles can evolve very rapidly, it suggests anthropogenic climate change is likely to be less of a conservation threat than other factors, such as habitat loss and invasive species, in this, Lesser Antillean, biodiversity hot spot.     

Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability

While average temperature is likely to increase in most locations on Earth, many places will simultaneously experience higher variability in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists widely recognize the potential impacts of changes in average climatic conditions, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential impacts of changes in climatic variability and extremes. We review the evidence on the impacts of increased climatic variability and extremes on physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes at multiple levels of biological organization, from individuals to populations and communities. Our review indicates that climatic variability can have profound influences on biological processes at multiple scales of organization. Responses to increased climatic variability and extremes are likely to be complex and cannot always be generalized, although our conceptual and methodological toolboxes allow us to make informed predictions about the likely consequences of such climatic changes. We conclude that climatic variability represents an important component of climate that deserves further attention.     

Evolutionary responses to global change: lessons from invasive species

Biologists have recently devoted increasing attention to the role of rapid evolution in species' responses to environmental change. However, it is still unclear what evolutionary responses should be expected, at what rates, and whether evolution will save populations at risk of extinction. The potential of biological invasions to provide useful insights has barely been realised, despite the close analogies to species responding to global change, particularly climate change; in both cases, populations encounter novel climatic and biotic selection pressures, with expected evolutionary responses occurring over similar timescales. However, the analogy is not perfect, and invasive species are perhaps best used as an upper bound on expected change. In this article, we review what invasive species can and cannot teach us about likely evolutionary responses to global change and the constraints on those responses. We also discuss the limitations of invasive species as a model and outline directions for future research.     

Phenotypic distribution models corroborate species distribution models: A shift in the role and prevalence of a dominant prairie grass in response to climate change

Phenotypic distribution within species can vary widely across environmental gradients but forecasts of species’ responses to environmental change often assume species respond homogenously across their ranges. We compared predictions from species and phenotype distribution models under future climate scenarios for Andropogon gerardii, a widely distributed, dominant grass found throughout the central United States. Phenotype data on aboveground biomass, height, leaf width, and chlorophyll content were obtained from 33 populations spanning a ~1000 km gradient that encompassed the majority of the species’ environmental range. Species and phenotype distribution models were trained using current climate conditions and projected to future climate scenarios. We used permutation procedures to infer the most important variable for each model. The species‐level response to climate was most sensitive to maximum temperature of the hottest month, but phenotypic variables were most sensitive to mean annual precipitation. The phenotype distribution models predict that A. gerardii could be largely functionally eliminated from where this species currently dominates, with biomass and height declining by up to ~60% and leaf width by ~20%. By the 2070s, the core area of highest suitability for A. gerardii is projected to shift up to ~700 km northeastward. Further, short‐statured phenotypes found in the present‐day short grass prairies on the western periphery of the species’ range will become favored in the current core ~800 km eastward of their current location. Combined, species and phenotype models predict this currently dominant prairie grass will decline in prevalence and stature. Thus, sourcing plant material for grassland restoration and forage should consider changes in the phenotype that will be favored under future climate conditions. Phenotype distribution models account for the role of intraspecific variation in determining responses to anticipated climate change and thereby complement predictions from species distributions models in guiding climate adaptation strategies.     

Evolutionary response to global change: Climate and land use interact to shape color polymorphism in a woodland salamander

Evolutionary change has been demonstrated to occur rapidly in human‐modified systems, yet understanding how multiple components of global change interact to affect adaptive evolution remains a critical knowledge gap. Climate change is predicted to impose directional selection on traits to reduce thermal stress, but the strength of directional selection may be mediated by changes in the thermal environment driven by land use. We examined how regional climatic conditions and land use interact to affect genetically based color polymorphism in the eastern red‐backed salamander (Plethodon cinereus). P. cinereus is a woodland salamander with two primary discrete color morphs (striped, unstriped) that have been associated with macroclimatic conditions. Striped individuals are most common in colder regions, but morph frequencies can be variable within climate zones. We used path analysis to analyze morph frequencies among 238,591 individual salamanders across 1,170 sites in North America. Frequency of striped individuals was positively related to forest cover in populations occurring in warmer regions (>7°C annually), a relationship that was weak to nonexistent in populations located in colder regions (≤7°C annually). Our results suggest that directional selection imposed by climate warming at a regional scale may be amplified by forest loss and suppressed by forest persistence, with a mediating effect of land use that varies geographically. Our work highlights how the complex interaction of selection pressures imposed by different components of global change may lead to divergent evolutionary trajectories among populations.