Rabies in urban foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in Britain: the use of a spatial stochastic simulation model to examine the pattern of spread and evaluate the efficacy of different control régimes.

The threat of rabies being reintroduced into Britain is probably greater now than at any time over the last 60 years. This threat is reviewed with particular regard to the problems that would be posed should rabies be introduced to the high-density fox populations found in many cities in southern England. Computer models can provide a valuable means of understanding the pattern of rabies spread in fox populations and the likely problems of control, so the construction of previous rabies models was reviewed. None were found to be suitable for analysing the particular problems posed by high-density, spatially heterogeneous, urban fox populations. Therefore, a new spatial stochastic simulation model was produced, based on demographic and other data collected during a long-term study on the urban fox population in Bristol, and fox density data collected from a number of cities in southern England. The simulation model was used to analyse the effects of spatial heterogeneity in the fox population on the pattern of rabies spread. Simulations were then used to evaluate the effects of: (i) varying levels of fox control; (ii) changing the size of the control zone; (iii) the onset of the rabies epizooty at different times of the year: and (iv) delay before the commencement of control on the chances of containing the disease. These simulations were run for four cities (Bournemouth and Poole, Bristol, Leicester and the West Midlands conurbation) with different mean fox population densities. It was found that the variance in the monthly velocity of the rabies front was greater for heterogeneous fox populations. In cities with high fox densities, low or moderate levels of control were unsuccessful in containing the disease, but these urban areas had the highest rates of success with the highest levels of control. A three-month delay in the commencement of a rabies control campaign on average reduced the chance of successfully controlling the disease by 10-20%, although this was higher in lower-density fox populations. Rabies outbreaks in the dispersal period were on average 10% less likely to be contained. Increasing the size of the control zone increased the chances of successfully containing the disease, although this effect was density dependent, so the effect was less in low-density fox populations. These results are discussed in relation to the current rabies contingency plans for British urban areas.     

Modeling control of rabies outbreaks in red fox populations to evaluate culling,vaccination, and vaccination combined with fertility control

A predictive model of spread and control of rabies in red fox (Vulpes vulpes) populations was used to evaluate efficacy of culling, oral vaccination, and oral vaccination and fertility control (V + FC) as rabies control strategies. In addition, effects of season, fox population density, and a delay in starting control were modeled. At fox densities of 0.5 fox families/km2 or greater, a single oral vaccination campaign with bait uptake rates of less than 50% resulted in ineffective rabies control. An uptake rate of at least 80% was required to give a better than 80% chance of eliminating rabies. Vaccination was least effective at controlling rabies if applied 1 or 2 mo before the foxes gave birth. Seasonal timing of poison or V + FC had little effect on efficacy, which was always more successful than the oral vaccination alone. The longer the delay between the simulated start of the rabies infection and the application of a single vaccination campaign, the less successful was the control, particularly at the higher fox densities tested. At a fox density of 0.25 families/km2, all the strategies were equally successful at eliminating rabies. At higher fox densities V + FC was slightly less successful than culling, whereas vaccination-only was considerably less successful. The sole use of vaccination is not considered a viable control method for areas with high fox densities. The model suggests that an area of culling centered on the disease focus, plus an outer ring of vaccine or V + FC, could be the best strategy to control a point-source wildlife rabies outbreak.     

Population structure of two rabies hosts relative to the known distribution of rabies virus variants in Alaska

For pathogens that infect multiple species, the distinction between reservoir hosts and spillover hosts is often difficult. In Alaska, three variants of the arctic rabies virus exist with distinct spatial distributions. We tested the hypothesis that rabies virus variant distribution corresponds to the population structure of the primary rabies hosts in Alaska, arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) to possibly distinguish reservoir and spillover hosts. We used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence and nine microsatellites to assess population structure in those two species. mtDNA structure did not correspond to rabies virus variant structure in either species. Microsatellite analyses gave varying results. Bayesian clustering found two groups of arctic foxes in the coastal tundra region, but for red foxes it identified tundra and boreal types. Spatial Bayesian clustering and spatial principal components analysis identified 3 and 4 groups of arctic foxes, respectively, closely matching the distribution of rabies virus variants in the state. Red foxes, conversely, showed eight clusters comprising two regions (boreal and tundra) with much admixture. These results run contrary to previous beliefs that arctic fox show no fine‐scale spatial population structure. While we cannot rule out that the red fox is part of the maintenance host community for rabies in Alaska, the distribution of virus variants appears to be driven primarily by the arctic fox. Therefore, we show that host population genetics can be utilized to distinguish between maintenance and spillover hosts when used in conjunction with other approaches.     

Raccoons (Procyon lotor) in Germany as potential reservoir species for Lyssaviruses

Raccoons can be found almost everywhere in Germany since their first successful introduction in 1934. Although the animal is a well-known reservoir species for rabies in the USA, during the last European fox rabies epizootic, only a few rabid raccoons were reported from Germany. In recent years, the raccoon population density has increased tremendously, especially in (semi) urban settings. Presently, Germany is free of terrestrial wildlife rabies. To assess the potential risk that the raccoon population in Germany could act as a reservoir species upon reemergence of rabies, the susceptibility of the local raccoon population was investigated. Wild-caught animals were inoculated with the most likely lyssavirus variants to infect the local population. It was shown that the raccoons were fully susceptible for a dog and raccoon rabies virus isolate. Also, five of six raccoons inoculated with a fox rabies virus isolate showed clinical signs. However, none of the raccoons infected with European Bat Lyssavirus type 1 succumbed to rabies; meanwhile, all these raccoons seroconverted. It is concluded that the highest risk for the raccoon population in Germany to become infected with lyssaviruses is through the importation of rabies infected dogs.     

Landscape-Genetic Analysis of Population Structure in the Texas Gray Fox Oral Rabies Vaccination Zone

ABSTRACT In west-central Texas, USA, abatement efforts for the gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) rabies epizootic illustrate the difficulties inherent in large-scale management of wildlife disease. The rabies epizootic has been managed through a cooperative oral rabies vaccination program (ORV) since 1996. Millions of edible baits containing a rabies vaccine have been distributed annually in a 16-km to 24-km zone around the perimeter of the epizootic, which encompasses a geographic area >4 × 10⁵ km². The ORV program successfully halted expansion of the epizootic into metropolitan areas but has not achieved the ultimate goal of eradication. Rabies activity in gray fox continues to occur periodically outside the ORV zone, preventing ORV zone contraction and dissipation of the epizootic. We employed a landscape-genetic approach to assess gray fox population structure and dispersal in the affected area, with the aim of assisting rabies management efforts. No unique genetic clusters or population boundaries were detected. Instead, foxes were weakly structured over the entire region in an isolation by distance pattern. Local subpopulations appeared to be genetically non-independent over distances >30 km, implying that long-distance movements or dispersal may have been common in the region. We concluded that gray foxes in west-central Texas have a high potential for long-distance rabies virus trafficking. Thus, a 16-km to 24-km ORV zone may be too narrow to contain the fox rabies epizootic. Continued expansion of the ORV zone, although costly, may be critical to the long-term goal of eliminating the Texas fox rabies virus variant from the United States.     

On the spatial spread of rabies among foxes

We present a simple model for the spatial spread of rabies among foxes and use it to quantify its progress in England if rabies were introduced. The model is based on the known ecology of fox behaviour and on the assumption that the main vector for the spread of the disease is the rabid fox. Known data and facts are used to determine real parameter values involved in the model. We calculate the speed of propagation of the epizootic front, the threshold for the existence of an epidemic, the period and distance apart of the subsequent cyclical epidemics which follow the main front, and finally we quantify a means for control of the spatial spread of the disease. By way of illustration we use the model to determine the progress of rabies up through the southern part of England if it were introduced near Southampton. Estimates for the current fox density in England were used in the simulations. These suggest that the disease would reach Manchester within about 3.5 years, moving at speeds as high as 100 km per year in the central region. The model further indicates that although it might seem that the disease had disappeared after the wave had passed it would reappear in the south of England after just over 6 years and at periodic times after that. We consider the possibility of stopping the spread of the disease by creating a rabies 'break' ahead of the front through vaccination to reduce the population to a level below the threshold for an epidemic to exist. Based on parameter values relevant to England, we estimate its minimum width to be about 15 km. The model suggests that vaccination has considerable advantages over severe culling.     

Frequency dynamics of foxes as a factor of epizootic risk of rabies

During the period preceding the year 1998 when the peak values of the rabies incidence were registered in the Moscow region, a noticeable increase in fox frequency and the density of their population occurred, especially in 3 endemic areas of the north-western zone. Considering the fact that this zone was endemic for rabies, an increased density of the fox population was, most probably, the critical factor of the epizootological risk and the main cause of the emergency situation in rabies in 1998. The data obtained in this investigation may serve as a real basis for the prediction of the epizootic situation.     

Trap-vaccinate-release and oral vaccination for rabies control in urban skunks, raccoons and foxes.

Two rabies control tactics, trap-vaccinate-release (T-V-R) and oral vaccination were used for the control of rabies in skunks (Mephitis mephitis), raccoons (Procyon lotor), and foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in metropolitan Toronto, Canada. Using T-V-R, a mean of 45% to 72% (95% confidence limits of 40% to 81%) of the skunks and a mean of 17% to 68% (95% confidence limits of 14% to 76%) of the raccoons in a 60 km2 area of Toronto were vaccinated against rabies between 1987 and 1991. The area has been free of skunk rabies from May 1989 to April 1992. Forty-five rabies cases were diagnosed during 1980 to 1986. In contrast, only three skunk cases have been reported since the vaccination program began in July 1987. The T-V-R area also remained rabies free during an epizootic of skunk rabies in metropolitan Toronto during 1991. Following distribution of rabies vaccine-baits throughout the ravines of metropolitan Toronto, June 1989 to December 1991, 46% to 80% of the Toronto fox population was immunized during 1989, 1990 and 1991. Only one case of fox rabies was reported in metropolitan Toronto since vaccination began, compared to 80 cases reported between 1982 and 1988. The area has been free of reported fox rabies from October 1990 to April 1992.     

Rabies emergence among foxes in Turkey

Sixteen rabies isolates recently collected from mainland Turkey and two isolates held within a British archive were used to form a representative cohort from a range of vectors, and were analyzed to identify potential causes for an increase of rabies within the fox (Vulpes vulpes) population in Turkey. Each isolate was characterized by sequence analysis of the nucleoprotein gene and compared phylogenetically to the cohort, to isolates from neighboring countries and to isolates from continental Europe and Russia. From this analysis the isolates could be divided into three groups associated with geographic location. This included a western group, an eastern group, and one isolate that did not group with any other Turkish isolate. This observation was also found using the heteroduplex mobility assay as an alternative method for typing rabies virus isolates. Further comparison with isolates from neighboring countries suggests that this isolate was related to viruses present in Georgia and could represent a recent import to Turkey from that country. Within the two larger groups, sequence data were obtained from both infected dogs and foxes suggesting that there has been transmission of virus between these two species. The direction of transmission could not be identified by the phylogenetic analysis, although absence of rabies within the fox population in previous years suggests that this could represent a recent spillover from the domestic dog to the fox.     

A simple model for the spatial spread and control of rabies

A simple mathematical model for the spatial spread of rabies is presented. It models the dynamics of the front of an epizootic wave. We show how the model can be used to estimate the minimum width (in kilometers) of a break, that is, a region in which a control scheme is employed in order to stop the spatial progression of the rabies wave front. A simple expression is derived for the surviving fox population, after the passage of the epizootic, in terms of measurable parameters of the model.     

Rabies and canine distemper in an arctic fox population in Alaska

Two oil field workers were attacked by a rabid arctic fox (Alopex lagopus) in the Prudhoe Bay oil field (Alaska, USA) prompting officials to reduce the local fox population. Ninety-nine foxes were killed during winter 1994. We tested foxes for prevalence of rabies and canine distemper. Exposure to rabies was detected in five of 99 foxes. Of the five, only one fox had rabies virus in neural tissue as determined by the direct fluorescent antibody test. The other four foxes had been exposed to rabies, but had apparently produced antibodies and did not have an active infection. No evidence of canine distemper was detected as determined by the absence of distemper antibodies in serum and distemper virus in neural tissue.     

Experience with antirabies vaccination of foxes using the oral route coordinated among several European countries and perspectives on the use of recombinant vaccinia-rabies virus

Campaigns of fox vaccination against rabies were carried out in Belgium, grand-duchy of Luxembourg and France in September 1986, June and September 1987. The SAD B19 attenuated strain of rabies virus, contained in baits (Tübingen baits) was used as vaccine. Baits were distributed at a range density of 11 to 15 baits per km2. First results are very encouraging. A recombinant vaccinia virus harbouring the rabies virus glycoprotein gene has been developed. This recombinant virus can be given to the fox by the oral route and protects it against rabies virus challenge; it is also innocuous for the fox and other non-target European species. A first trial of fox vaccination against rabies using this recombinant vaccinia-rabies virus has been carried out in Belgium, on a military domain, in October 1987.     

Emergency rabies control in a community of two high-density hosts

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Rabies is a fatal viral disease that potentially can affect all mammals. Terrestrial rabies is not present in the United Kingdom and has been eliminated from Western Europe. Nevertheless the possibility remains that rabies could be introduced to England, where it would find two potentially suitable hosts, red foxes and badgers. With the aim to analyse the spread and emergency control of rabies in this two species host community, a simulation model was constructed. Different control strategies involving anti-rabies vaccination and population culling were developed, considering control application rates, spatial extent and timing. These strategies were evaluated for efficacy and feasibility to control rabies in hypothetical rural areas in the South of England immediately after a disease outbreak. RESULTS: The model confirmed that both fox and badger populations, separately, were competent hosts for the spread of rabies. Realistic vaccination levels were not sufficient to control rabies in high-density badger populations. The combined species community was a very strong rabies host. However, disease spread within species appeared to be more important than cross-species infection. Thus, the drivers of epidemiology depend on the potential of separate host species to sustain the disease. To control a rabies outbreak in the two species, both species had to be targeted. Realistic and robust control strategies involved vaccination of foxes and badgers, but also required badger culling. Although fox and badger populations in the UK are exceptionally dense, an outbreak of rabies can be controlled with a higher than 90% chance, if control response is quick and follows a strict regime. This requires surveillance and forceful and repeated control campaigns. In contrast, an uncontrolled rabies outbreak in the South of England would quickly develop into a strong epizootic involving tens of thousands of rabid foxes and badgers. CONCLUSIONS: If populations of both host species are sufficiently large, epizootics are driven by within-species transmission, while cross-species-infection appears to be of minor importance. Thus, the disease control strategy has to target both host populations.     

Ecology of wildlife rabies in Europe

• 1 The number of wildlife rabies cases has increased in Europe in recent years. We review the epizootiology of wildlife rabies in Europe, paying special attention to recent changes to the situation of two important vector species: the red fox and the raccoon dog. Red fox Vulpes vulpes has been the main vector of rabies since 1945, but the number and proportion of raccoon dog Nyctereutes procyonoides cases has rapidly increased during the past few years, particularly in north‐eastern Europe.
• 2 The transmission rate (average number of susceptible animals infected by each rabid animal) is critical for rabies spread and is partly determined by population density. Both raccoon dogs and foxes live in pairs. Foxes also live in family groups. Pairs and groups share their territories. Home range size usually correlates negatively with population density. Fox home ranges are 50–1500 ha, those of raccoon dogs 150–700 ha. The threshold value for rabies spread among foxes is estimated to be 0.63 individuals/km². Although fox density in eastern and northern Europe may be lower than this, the pooled density of foxes and raccoon dogs exceeds the threshold density.
• 3 Animal movements, especially dispersal of young, pose a risk for rabies spread. Although the likelihood of an epizootic is highest where fox and raccoon dog densities are highest, rabies may spread fastest where population densities are lower, because dispersal distances tend to correlate negatively with population density.
• 4 Oral vaccinations have been more effective in rabies control than culling foxes. Where two vector species exist, vaccination should be conducted twice a year, because most raccoon dogs disperse in autumn but some foxes do not disperse before mid‐ or late winter.
• 5 New rabies models, based on two vector species and their interaction, and which take into account the hibernation period of raccoon dogs, are needed for north‐eastern Europe.

     

Elimination of rabies from red foxes in eastern Ontario

The province of Ontario (Canada) reported more laboratory confirmed rabid animals than any other state or province in Canada or the USA from 1958-91, with the exception of 1960-62. More than 95% of those cases occurred in the southern 10% of Ontario (approximately 100,000 km2), the region with the highest human population density and greatest agricultural activity. Rabies posed an expensive threat to human health and significant costs to the agricultural economy. The rabies variant originated in arctic foxes: the main vector in southern Ontario was the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), with lesser involvement of the striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis). The Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources began a 5 yr experiment in 1989 to eliminate terrestrial rabies from a approximately 30,000 km2 study area in the eastern end of southern Ontario. Baits containing oral rabies vaccine were dropped annually in the study area at a density of 20 baits/km2 from 1989-95. That continued 2 yr beyond the original 5 yr plan. The experiment was successful in eliminating the arctic fox variant of rabies from the whole area. In the 1980's, an average of 235 rabid foxes per year were reported in the study area. None have been reported since 1993. Cases of fox rabies in other species also disappeared. In 1995, the last bovine and companion animal cases were reported and in 1996 the last rabid skunk occurred. Only bat variants of rabies were present until 1999, when the raccoon variant entered from New York (USA). The success of this experiment led to an expansion of the program to all of southern Ontario in 1994. Persistence of terrestrial rabies, and ease of elimination, appeared to vary geographically, and probably over time. Ecological factors which enhance or reduce the long term survival of rabies in wild foxes are poorly understood.     

Rabies and Canine Distemper Virus Epidemics in the Red Fox Population of Northern Italy (2006–2010)

Since 2006 the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) population in north-eastern Italy has experienced an epidemic of canine distemper virus (CDV). Additionally, in 2008, after a thirteen-year absence from Italy, fox rabies was re-introduced in the Udine province at the national border with Slovenia. Disease intervention strategies are being developed and implemented to control rabies in this area and minimise risk to human health. Here we present empirical data and the epidemiological picture relating to these epidemics in the period 2006–2010. Of important significance for epidemiological studies of wild animals, basic mathematical models are developed to exploit information collected from the surveillance program on dead and/or living animals in order to assess the incidence of infection. These models are also used to estimate the rate of transmission of both diseases and the rate of vaccination, while correcting for a bias in early collection of CDV samples. We found that the rate of rabies transmission was roughly twice that of CDV, with an estimated effective contact between infected and susceptible fox leading to a new infection occurring once every 3 days for rabies, and once a week for CDV. We also inferred that during the early stage of the CDV epidemic, a bias in the monitoring protocol resulted in a positive sample being almost 10 times more likely to be collected than a negative sample. We estimated the rate of intake of oral vaccine at 0.006 per day, allowing us to estimate that roughly 68% of the foxes would be immunised. This was confirmed by field observations. Finally we discuss the implications for the eco-epidemiological dynamics of both epidemics in relation to control measures.     

Feasibility of oral rabies vaccination campaigns of young foxes (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Vulpes vulpes</Emphasis>) against rabies in summer

Oral vaccination of foxes (Vulpes vulpes) against rabies has been shown to be highly effective. Several baiting strategies to increase vaccination coverage of the target population have been developed. For example, to increase the vaccination coverage of the young fox population before dispersal an additional summer vaccination campaign has been suggested. The effectiveness of such a campaign was evaluated using field data on home range size and shape of young foxes and a simulation model for aerial bait distribution. The results indicated that the limited ranging behaviour of the young fox population during the summer months severely reduced bait accessibility and consequently such an additional vaccination campaign would be very cost-ineffective.     

Preliminary evaluation of Raboral V-RG® oral rabies vaccine in Arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus)

We tested the Raboral V-RG? recombinant oral rabies vaccine for its response in Arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus), the reservoir of rabies virus in the circumpolar North. The vaccine, which is currently the only licensed oral rabies vaccine in the United States, induced a strong antibody response and protected foxes against a challenge of 500,000 mouse intracerebral lethal dose 50% of an Arctic rabies virus variant. However, one unvaccinated control fox survived challenge with rabies virus, either indicating a high resistance of Arctic foxes to rabies infection or a previous exposure that induced immunity. This preliminary study suggested that Raboral V-RG vaccine may be efficacious in Arctic foxes.     

Ultra-Deep Sequencing of Intra-host Rabies Virus Populations during Cross-species Transmission

One of the hurdles to understanding the role of viral quasispecies in RNA virus cross-species transmission (CST) events is the need to analyze a densely sampled outbreak using deep sequencing in order to measure the amount of mutation occurring on a small time scale. In 2009, the California Department of Public Health reported a dramatic increase (350) in the number of gray foxes infected with a rabies virus variant for which striped skunks serve as a reservoir host in Humboldt County. To better understand the evolution of rabies, deep-sequencing was applied to 40 unpassaged rabies virus samples from the Humboldt outbreak. For each sample, approximately 11 kb of the 12 kb genome was amplified and sequenced using the Illumina platform. Average coverage was 17,448 and this allowed characterization of the rabies virus population present in each sample at unprecedented depths. Phylogenetic analysis of the consensus sequence data demonstrated that samples clustered according to date (1995 vs. 2009) and geographic location (northern vs. southern). A single amino acid change in the G protein distinguished a subset of northern foxes from a haplotype present in both foxes and skunks, suggesting this mutation may have played a role in the observed increased transmission among foxes in this region. Deep-sequencing data indicated that many genetic changes associated with the CST event occurred prior to 2009 since several nonsynonymous mutations that were present in the consensus sequences of skunk and fox rabies samples obtained from 20032010 were present at the sub-consensus level (as rare variants in the viral population) in skunk and fox samples from 1995. These results suggest that analysis of rare variants within a viral population may yield clues to ancestral genomes and identify rare variants that have the potential to be selected for if environment conditions change.