Impacts of climate warming and habitat loss on extinctions at species' low-latitude range boundaries

Polewards expansions of species' distributions have been attributed to climate warming, but evidence for climate‐driven local extinctions at warm (low latitude/elevation) boundaries is equivocal. We surveyed the four species of butterflies that reach their southern limits in Britain. We visited 421 sites where the species had been recorded previously to determine whether recent extinctions were primarily due to climate or habitat changes. Coenonympha tullia had become extinct at 52% of study sites and all losses were associated with habitat degradation. Aricia artaxerxes was extinct from 50% of sites, with approximately one‐third to half of extinctions associated with climate‐related factors and the remainder with habitat loss. For Erebia aethiops (extinct from 24% of sites), approximately a quarter of the extinctions were associated with habitat and three‐quarters with climate. For Erebia epiphron, extinctions (37% of sites) were attributed mainly to climate with almost no habitat effects. For the three species affected by climate, range boundaries retracted 70–100 km northwards (A. artaxerxes, E. aethiops) and 130–150 m uphill (E. epiphron) in the sample of sites analysed. These shifts are consistent with estimated latitudinal and elevational temperature shifts of 88 km northwards and 98 m uphill over the 19‐year study period. These results suggest that the southern/warm range margins of some species are as sensitive to climate change as are northern/cool margins. Our data indicate that climate warming has been of comparable importance to habitat loss in driving local extinctions of northern species over the past few decades; future climate warming is likely to jeopardize the long‐term survival of many northern and mountain species.     

The roles of landscape context, niche breadth, and range boundaries in predicting species responses to habitat alteration

Extant species in human‐dominated landscapes differ in their sensitivity to habitat loss and fragmentation, although extinctions induced by environmental alteration reduce variation and result in a surviving subset of species with some degree of ‘resistance’. Here, we test the degree to which variable responses to habitat alteration are (1) essentially an inherent property of a taxon subject to constraints imposed by its geographical range, as suggested by Swihart et al. (2003), (2) a function of the landscape in which a species occurs, or (3) a function of spatial trends occurring on large scales. We used data collected on 33 vertebrate species during 2001–04 across the upper Wabash River basin, Indiana, in 35 square ‘landscapes’, each 23 km² in size. Six species of forest rodent, six species of grassland rodents, seven species of bats, eight species of aquatic turtles, and six species of amphibians were sampled at 504, 212, 590, 228, and 625 patches, respectively. The fraction of patches of primary habitat (e.g. forests for tree squirrels, wetlands for aquatic turtles) occupied by a target species was used as a response variable. On a basin‐wide scale, 47% of variation in proportional occupancy among species could be explained by taxon‐specific variables; occupancy rates were related positively to niche breadth and negatively to the proximity of a geographical range boundary. After controlling for species effects, landscape‐level occupancy rates varied significantly for 16 of 33 species, with variation partitioned among landscape variables alone (mean = 11% of variation), spatial trend variables alone (26%), and both variable sets jointly (8%). Among landscape variables, percentage forest cover positively affected occupancy rates of three bat species and a tree squirrel. Variation in occupancy rates among landscapes was consistent with large‐scale spatial trends for 13 species. Our findings demonstrate the general importance of niche breadth as a predictor of species responses to habitat alteration and highlight the importance of viewing the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation at multiple spatial scales.     

Effects of forest degradation on butterfly communities in the Gwangneung Forest

This study was carried out to clarify the response of butterfly communities on forest degradation in the Gwangneung Forest, Korea. We monitored butterfly communities with varying degrees of human activities by conducting a line transect twice a month in 2011. A total of 70 species and 4676 individuals of butterflies were observed in four sites: natural forest (NR), two plantation forests, and the Korean National Arboretum (AR). The result on niche breadth, habitat breadth and habitat type of butterfly was not consistent with our predictions. Species richness of habitat type was only significantly different between NF and AR. Species diversity was significantly different among sites. Butterfly diversity associated with landscape patterns based on aerial photographs supported a mosaic concept. A forest management plan to conserve butterfly diversity in forests is necessary to maintain various habitats and to ensure that grasslands are protected.     

Responses of 'resistant' vertebrates to habitat loss and fragmentation: the importance of niche breadth and range boundaries

Abstract. An ability to predict species' sensitivities to habitat loss and fragmentation has important conservation implications, and numerous hypotheses have been proposed to explain interspecific differences observed in human-dominated landscapes. We used occupancy data collected on 32 species of vertebrates (16 mammals and 16 amphibians) in an agricultural landscape of Indiana, USA, to compare hypotheses that focus on different causal mechanisms underlying interspecific variation in responses to habitat alteration: (1) body size; (2) morphology and development; (3) behaviour; (4) niche breadth; (5) proximity to range boundary; and multiple-process models combining main effects and interactions of hypotheses (1)–(2) and (4)–(5). The majority of habitat alteration occurred over a century ago and coincided with extinction of several species; thus, our study dealt only with variation in responses of extant species that often are considered 'resistant' to human modifications of native habitat. Corrected Akaike scores and Akaike weights provided strongest support for models incorporating niche breadth and proximity to range boundary. Measures of dietary and habitat breadth obtained from the literature were negatively correlated with sensitivity to habitat alteration. Additionally, greater sensitivity was observed for species occurring at the periphery of their geographical ranges, especially at northern or western margins. Body size, morphological, developmental and behavioural traits were inferior predictors of tolerance to fragmentation for the species and landscape we examined. Our findings reinforce the importance of niche breadth as a predictor of species' responses to habitat alteration. They also highlight the importance of viewing the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation in a landscape within a biogeographical context that considers a species' level of adaptation to local environmental conditions.     

Intraspecific variation in habitat availability among ectothermic animals near their climatic limits and their centres of range

1. In a modelling exercise, the quantity and distribution of habitat patches within a heathland biotope for four ectothermic heathland animals (silver-studded blue butterfly [ Plebejus argus ] , a red ant [ Myrmica sabuleti ] , heath grasshopper [ Chorthippus vagans ] and sand lizard [ Lacerta agilis ]) were compared in space and time assuming two climates: that experienced at the northern edge of the species' ranges and that 300–400 km further south, where mean summer temperatures are 2–3 °C warmer.
2. Habitats both at the northern edge of their ranges and 300–400 km further south for the four species were defined qualitatively from existing sources and then expressed quantitatively in terms of the attributes recorded in the Dorset Heathland Survey. The Survey was then used as a GIS to map the occurrence of the habitats of the four species under two climates and a decade apart.
3. The model predicts that an increase of 2–3 °C can result in a large increase in the area of habitat available to these north temperate species, that the length of time that individual patches of successional habitat may be occupied increases and that the distance between habitat patches within the biotope decreases.
4. The warmer conditions should result in a more stable metapopulation structure for P. argus , with fewer metapopulations existing in the landscape but each, on average, containing a greater number of larger and more stable constituent populations.
5. These predictions are of significance to ectothermic species which currently live at the northern limits of their ranges in the British Isles. The reverse effect is likely for species at the southern limits of their ranges. Conservationists who wish to maintain the status quo may be able to reduce some effects of these changes by appropriate habitat management.     

Habitat associations of thermophilous butterflies are reduced despite climatic warming

Climate warming threatens the survival of species at their warm, trailing‐edge range boundaries but also provides opportunities for the ecological release of populations at the cool, leading edges of their distributions. Thus, as the climate warms, leading‐edge populations are expected to utilize an increased range of habitat types, leading to larger population sizes and range expansion. Here, we test the hypothesis that the habitat associations of British butterflies have expanded over three decades of climate warming. We characterize the habitat breadth of 27 southerly distributed species from 77 monitoring transects between 1977 and 2007 by considering changes in densities of butterflies across 11 habitat types. Contrary to expectation, we find that 20 of 27 (74%) butterfly species showed long‐term contractions in their habitat associations, despite some short‐term expansions in habitat breadth in warmer‐than‐usual years. Thus, we conclude that climatic warming has ameliorated habitat contractions caused by other environmental drivers to some extent, but that habitat degradation continues to be a major driver of reductions in habitat breadth and population density of butterflies.     

Neither species geographic range size,climatic envelope,nor intraspecific leaf trait variability capture habitat specialization in a hyperdiverse Amazonian forest

Many plant species exhibit strong association with topographic habitats at local scales. However, the historical biogeographic and physiological drivers of habitat specialization are still poorly understood, and there is a need for relatively easy‐to‐measure predictors of species habitat niche breadth. Here, we explore whether species geographic range, climatic envelope, or intraspecific variability in leaf traits is related to the degree of habitat specialization in a hyperdiverse tropical tree community in Amazonian Ecuador. Contrary to our expectations, we find no effect of the size of species geographic ranges, the diversity of climate a species experiences across its range, or intraspecific variability in leaf traits in predicting topographic habitat association in the ~300 most common tropical tree species in a 25‐ha tropical forest plot. In addition, there was no phylogenetic signal to habitat specialization. We conclude that species geographic range size, climatic niche breadth, and intraspecific variability in leaf traits fail to capture the habitat specialization patterns observed in this highly diverse tropical forest.     

Niche breadth explains the range size of European-centred butterflies,but dispersal ability does not

Aim

The breadth of ecological niches and dispersal abilities have long been discussed as important determinants of species' range sizes. However, studies directly comparing the relative effects of both factors are rare, taxonomically biased and revealed inconsistent results.

Location

Europe.

Time Period

Cenozoic.

Major Taxa

Butterflies, Lepidoptera.

Methods

We relate climate, diet and habitat niche breadth and two indicators of dispersal ability, wingspan and a dispersal tendency index, to the global range size of 369 European-centred butterfly species. The relative effects of these five predictors and their variation across the butterfly phylogeny were assessed by means of phylogenetic generalized least squares models and phylogenetically weighted regressions respectively.

Results

Climate niche breadth was the most important single predictor, followed by habitat and diet niche breadth, while dispersal tendency and wingspan showed no relation to species' range size. All predictors together explained 59% of the variation in butterfly range size. However, the effects of each predictor varied considerably across families and genera.

Main Conclusions

Range sizes of European-centred butterflies are strongly correlated with ecological niche breadth but apparently independent of dispersal ability. The magnitude of range size–niche breadth relationships is not stationary across the phylogeny and is often negatively correlated across the different dimensions of the ecological niche. This variation limits the generalizability of range size–trait relationships across broad taxonomic groups.     

Species richness, species range size and ecological specialisation among African primates: geographical patterns and conservation implications

The geographical distribution of species richness and species range size of African anthropoid primates (catarrhines) is investigated and related to patterns of habitat and dietary niche breadth. Catarrhine species richness is concentrated in the equatorial regions of central and west Africa; areas that are also characterised by low average species range sizes and increased ecological specificity. Species richness declines with increasing latitude north and south of the equator, while average species range size, habitat and dietary breadth increase. Relationships between species richness, species range size and niche breadth remain once latitudinal and longitudinal effects have been removed. Among areas of lowest species richness, however, there is increased variation in terms of average species range size and niche breadth, and two trends are identified. While most such areas are occupied by a few wide-ranging generalists, others are occupied by range-restricted specialist species. That conservation efforts increasingly focus on regions of high species richness may be appropriate if these regions are also characterised by species that are more restricted in both their range size and their ecological versatility, although special consideration may be required for some areas of low species richness.     

Climate envelope modelling reveals intraspecific relationships among flowering phenology, niche breadth and potential range size in Arabidopsis thaliana

Species often harbour large amounts of phenotypic variation in ecologically important traits, and some of this variation is genetically based. Understanding how this genetic variation is spatially structured can help to understand species' ecological tolerances and range limits. We modelled the climate envelopes of Arabidopsis thaliana genotypes, ranging from early- to late-flowering, as a function of several climatic variables. We found that genotypes with contrasting alleles at individual flowering time loci differed significantly in potential range size and niche breadth. We also found that later flowering genotypes had more restricted range potentials and narrower niche breadths than earlier flowering genotypes, indicating that local selection on flowering can constrain or enhance the ability of populations to colonise other areas. Our study demonstrates how climate envelope models that incorporate ecologically important genetic variation can provide insights into the macroecology of a species, which is important to understand its responses to changing environments.     

The relationship between range size and niche breadth: a test using five species of Gammarus (Amphipoda)

Data for five closely related species of gammarid crustaceans are used to examine interspecific relationships between the breadth of fundamental tolerance or capacity and geographical range size. Gammarus duebeni is, almost without exception, the most tolerant species and that with the best physiological performance. Although there is some limited variation, the remaining species can be ranked broadly in the sequence G. zaddachi  > G. salinus  >  G. oceanicus > G. locusta . The wide tolerance and high performance of G. duebeni is associated with the occupation of a wider range of environmental 'types' than any other of the species. In terms of geographical range size, the species can be ranked from most to least widespread in the sequence G. oceanicus  > G. duebeni  >  G. zaddachi  >  G. salinus  >  G. locusta . This provides little support for Brown's hypothesis, or the argument that the more widely distributed species within a taxonomic assemblage also tend to have the widest fundamental niches. However, if marine ( G. oceanicus and G. locusta ) and estuarine ( G. duebeni , G. zaddachi , G. salinus) species are considered separately, then in each case the species with the largest geographical range is also the most tolerant/best performer. In this sense, the jack-of-all-trades is the master-of-all, rather than the master-of-none.     

Interspecific differences in population trends of Spanish birds are related to habitat and climatic preferences

Aim Animal monitoring programmes have allowed analyses of population trends, most of which now comment on the possible effect of global climate change. However, the relationship between the interspecific variation in population trends and species traits, such as habitat preferences, niche breadth or distribution patterns, has received little attention, in spite of its usefulness in the construction of ecological generalizations. The objectives of this study were: (1) to determine whether there are characteristics shared among species with upwards or downwards trends, and (2) to assess whether population changes agree with what could be expected under global warming (a decrease in species typical of cooler environments). Location The Spanish part of the Iberian Peninsula (c. 500,000 km²) in the south‐western part of the Mediterranean Basin. Methods We modelled recent breeding population changes (1996–2004), in areas without apparent land use changes, for 57 common passerine birds with species‐specific ecological and distributional patterns as explanatory variables. Results One‐half of these species have shown a generalized pattern towards the increase of their populations, while only one‐tenth showed a significant decrease. One half (54%) of the interspecific variability in yearly population trends is explained considering species‐specific traits. Species showing more marked increases preferred wooded habitats, were habitat generalists and occupied warmer and wetter areas, while moderate decreases were found for open country habitats in drier areas. Main conclusions The coherent pattern in population trends we found disagrees with the proposed detrimental effect of global warming on bird populations of western Europe, which is expected to be more intense in bird species inhabiting cooler areas and habitats. Such a pattern suggests that factors other than the increase in temperature may be brought to discussions on global change as relevant components to explain recent changes in biodiversity.     

Home range size scales to habitat amount and increasing fragmentation in a mobile woodland specialist

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Thermogeography predicts the potential global range of the invasive European green crab (Carcinus maenas)

Aim The highly adaptable estuarine crab (Carcinus maenas) has successfully invaded five temperate geographic regions outside of its native Europe. Here, we determine which environmental factors predict the current distribution of C. maenas and what the potential geographic range of this species might be. We also investigated whether the invasion potential of C. maenas differs with respect to the origin of a native subpopulation. Location Models were developed using global observation records of C. maenas. Methods Boosted regression trees were used to model observations from the (1) native, (2) invasive, (3) southern European, (4) northern European and (5) the combined native and invasive geographic ranges of C. maenas. Results Most established invasions were predicted mainly based on temperature. Interestingly, the environment encountered by established invasions failed to predict the majority of northern European populations; suggesting that invasion potential may differ between distinct native populations. Supporting this suggestion, a model of northern European populations, distinguished from southern European populations based on genetic structure, only predicted established invasions south of Nova Scotia. By contrast, a model of southern European populations predicted most established invasions. Main conclusions These results suggest that invasion potential depends on the European origin of an invasive population and that most invasions have arisen from southern Europe. Finally, a model based on combined native and invasive ranges of C. maenas identified potential geographic range extension along many currently invaded coastlines and the potential invasion of countries like Chile, China, Russia, Namibia and New Zealand.     

Abundance–range size relationships in the herbaceous flora of central England

1 Using data from a survey of over 10 000 1-m² quadrats in a 3000-km² area, we examined the relationship between abundance and range for the vascular plant flora of central England.
2 At the level of the whole landscape, abundance was not related to local, regional or national range. Local, regional and national range were closely related to each other.
3 At the level of the whole landscape, range was significantly and positively related to both niche breadth (expressed as the range of habitats exploited) and to habitat availability, although niche breadth appeared to be more important. Abundance was not related to niche breadth or habitat availability. Since specialist species are mainly confined to uncommon habitats (especially wetlands), we conclude that the relationship between range and niche breadth is not an artefact of widespread species passively sampling more habitats.
4 At the level of individual habitat types, significant positive relationships between range and abundance were common. These relationships remained after controlling for the effects of phylogeny. For predominantly annual weed communities, the relationship was linear, but for perennial communities it was markedly 'upper triangular', i.e. all combinations of range and abundance were found except wide range/low abundance. The evidence suggests that this difference can be attributed to the greater mobility of annual weeds.     

Host plant adaptation during contemporary range expansion in the monarch butterfly

Herbivores that have recently expanded their host plant ranges provide opportunities to test hypotheses about the evolution of host plant specialization. Here, we take advantage of the contemporary global range expansion of the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) and conduct a reciprocal rearing experiment involving monarch populations with divergent host plant assemblages. Specifically, we ask the following questions: (1) Do geographically disparate populations of monarch butterflies show evidence for local adaptation to their host plants? If so, what processes contribute to this pattern? (2) How is dietary breadth related to performance across multiple host species in monarch populations? (3) Does the coefficient of variation in performance vary across sympatric versus allopatric hosts? We find evidence for local adaptation in larval growth rate and survival based on sympatric/allopatric contrasts. Migratory North American monarchs, which have comparatively broad host breadth, have higher mean performance than derived nonmigratory populations across all host plant species. Monarchs reared on their sympatric host plants show lower coefficient of variation in performance than monarchs reared on allopatric hosts. We focus our discussion on possible mechanisms contributing to local adaptation to novel host plants and potential explanations for the reduction in performance that we observed in derived monarch populations.     

美国大陆外来入侵物种斑马纹贻贝(Dreissena polymorpha)潜在生境预测模型

防止外来生物入侵造成危害的重要手段是阻止可能造成入侵的物种进入适合其生存的地区.论文以1864个美国外来入侵物种斑马纹贻贝定点发生数据和开放式基础地理信息数据库Daymet的34个环境变量为主要信息源,采用逻辑斯蒂回归(LR)、分类与回归树模型(CART)、基于规则的遗传算法(GARP)、最大熵法(Maxent)4种途径,建立美国大陆部分潜在生境预测模型,从接受者运行特征曲线下面积(AUC)、Pearson相关系数、Kappa值3个方面来检验模型预测精度,在此基础上分析斑马纹贻贝的空间分布规律及其环境影响因素.研究结果表明:在3个评价指标中,4个生态位模型预测精度均达到优良水平,其中Maxent在物种现实生境模拟、主要生态环境因子筛选、环境因子对物种生境影响的定量描述方面都表现出了优越的性能;距水源距离、海拔高度、降水频率、太阳辐射是影响物种空间分布的主要环境因子.论文提出的研究方法对中国外来入侵物种生境预测具有较强的借鉴意义,研究结果对中国海洋外来入侵物种沙筛贝的预测与防治,具有一定的指导作用.     

Reconstructing the demise of Tethyan plants: climate‐driven range dynamics of Laurus since the Pliocene

Aim Climate changes are thought to be responsible for the retreat and eventual extinction of subtropical lauroid species that covered much of Europe and North Africa during the Palaeogene and early Neogene; little is known, however, of the spatial and temporal patterns of this demise. Herein we calibrate ecological niche models to assess the climatic requirements of Laurus L. (Lauraceae), an emblematic relic from the Tethyan subtropical flora, subsequently using these models to infer how the range dynamics of Laurus were affected by Plio‐Pleistocene climate changes. We also provide predictions of likely range changes resulting from future climatic scenarios. Location The Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands (Canaries, Madeira, Azores). Methods We used a maximum‐entropy algorithm (Maxent) to model the relationship between climate and Laurus distribution over time. The models were fitted both to the present and to the middle Pliocene, based on fossil records. We employed climatic reconstructions for the mid‐Pliocene (3 Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka) and a CO₂‐doubling future scenario to project putative species distribution in each period. We validated the model projections with Laurus fossil and present occurrences. Results Laurus preferentially occupied warm and moist areas with low seasonality, showing a marked stasis of its climatic niche. Models fitted to Pliocene conditions successfully predicted the current species distribution. Large suitable areas existed during the Pliocene, which were strongly reduced during the Pleistocene, but humid refugia within the Mediterranean Basin and Macaronesian islands enabled long‐term persistence. Future climate conditions are likely to re‐open areas suitable for colonization north of the current range. Main conclusions The climatic requirements of Laurus remained virtually unchanged over the last 3 Myr. This marked niche conservatism imposed largely deterministic range dynamics driven by climate conditions. This species's relatively high drought tolerance might account for the survival of Laurus in continental Europe throughout the Quaternary whilst other Lauraceae became extinct. Climatic scenarios for the end of this century would favour an expansion of the species's range towards northern latitudes, while severely limiting southern populations due to increased water stress.