Modelling the impact of climate change on spatial patterns of disease risk: sheep blowfly strike by Lucilia sericata in Great Britain

Understanding the spatial scale and temporal pattern of disease incidence is a fundamental prerequisite for the development of appropriate management and intervention strategies. It is particularly critical, given the need to understand the elevated risks linked to climate change, to allow the most likely changes in the distribution of parasites and disease vectors to be predicted under a range of climate change scenarios. Using statistical models, the spatial distribution and climatic correlates of a range of parasites and diseases have been mapped previously, but their development into dynamic, predictive tools is less common. The aim of the work described here, was to use a species distribution model to characterise the environmental determinants of the monthly occurrence of ovine cutaneous myiasis (blowfly strike) by Lucilia sericata, the most frequent primary agent of northern European myiasis, and to then use this model to describe the potential spatial changes that might be expected in response to predicted climate change in Great Britain. The model predicts that the range of elevated temperatures predicted by current climate change scenarios will result in an increase in the risk of strike and an elongated blowfly season. However, even for the most rapid warming scenario predictions over the next 70 years, strike is not predicted to occur throughout the winter. Nevertheless, in this latter case, parts of central and southern England are likely to become too hot and dry for strike by L. sericata, to persist in mid-summer. Under these conditions, it is possible that other, more pathogenic Mediterranean agents of myiasis, such as Wolfhartia magnifica, could potentially replace L. sericata. Where the phenology of strike is altered by climate change, as predicted here, significant changes to the timing and frequency of parasite treatments and husbandry practices, such as shearing, will be required to manage the problem. The results suggest that the modelling approach adopted here could be usefully applied to a range of disease systems.     

Regional trends for bud burst and flowering of woody plants in Norway as related to climate change

Data series for bud burst, beginning of flowering and petal fall for 20 species of deciduous trees and conifers at four sites in different regions of southern Norway have been analysed and related to temperature series. On average, the spring phenophases occurred 7 days earlier during the period 1971-2005. The most significant linear trends were observed for the earliest phases. The trends in this period were compared with trends in other periods, the longest one starting in 1927. Those starting in cold decades and ending in 2005 were in most instances statistically significant, whereas hardly any significant trend appeared for series starting in warm decades. This fact showed that the results of trend studies are very sensitive to the choice of starting year. There were significant decadal variations in 40% of the series. The dates of occurrence of the phenophases, varying from the first days of May to the first days of June, correlated with seasonal temperature series, in most cases strongest to mean temperatures for the seasons March-May and April-May. The North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) for January and February appeared to have some predictive power for the date of occurrence of the recorded phases. The basis for this may be that the oscillations described by the index are of importance for the fulfilment of physiological chilling requirements needed to break bud dormancy. The same genotypes of the trees were grown in region West Norway and in Central Norwegian region; during the period 1965-2005 the trends towards earlier bud burst were more pronounced and steeper at the western site.     

Natural selection and climate change: temperature-linked spatial and temporal trends in gene frequency in Fagus sylvatica

Rapid increases in global temperature are likely to impose strong directional selection on many plant populations, which must therefore adapt if they are to survive. Within populations, microgeographic genetic differentiation of individuals with respect to climate suggests that some populations may adapt to changing temperatures in the short-term through rapid changes in gene frequency. We used a genome scan to identify temperature-related adaptive differentiation of individuals of the tree species Fagus sylvatica. By combining molecular marker and dendrochronological data we assessed spatial and temporal variation in gene frequency at the locus identified as being under selection. We show that gene frequency at this locus varies predictably with temperature. The probability of the presence of the dominant marker allele shows a declining trend over the latter half of the 20th century, in parallel with rising temperatures in the region. Our results show that F. sylvatica populations may show some capacity for an in situ adaptive response to climate change. However as reported ongoing distributional changes demonstrate, this response is not enough to allow all populations of this species to persist in all of their current locations.     

Latitudinal variation of life-history traits of an exotic and a native impatiens species in Europe

Understanding the responses of invasive and native populations to environmental change is crucial for reliable predictions of invasions in the face of global change. While comparisons of responses across invasive species with different life histories have been performed before, comparing functional traits of congeneric native and invasive species may help to reveal driving factors associated with invasion. Here we compared morphological functional trait patterns of an invasive species (Impatiens parviflora) with its congeneric native species (I. noli-tangere) along an approximately 1600 km European latitudinal gradient from France (49°34′N) to Norway (63°40′N). Soil nitrogen was recorded during six weeks of the growing season, and light, soil moisture, and nutrient availability were estimated for each sampled population using community weighted means of indicator values for co-occurring species. Temperature data were gathered from nearby weather stations.Both the native and invasive species are taller at higher latitudes and this response is strongest in the invasive species. Seed mass and number of seeds per capsule increase in I. noli-tangere but decrease in I. parviflora towards higher latitudes. Surprisingly, plant height in the invasive I. parviflora decreases with increasing soil nitrogen availability. The latitudinal pattern in seed mass is positively related to temperature in I. noli-tangere and negatively in I. parviflora. Leaf area of both species decreases with increasing Ellenberg indicator values for nitrogen and light but increases with increasing soil moisture. Soil nitrogen concentrations and Ellenberg indicator values for nitrogen have significant positive (I. noli-tangere) and negative (I. parviflora) effects on the number of seeds per capsule. Our results show that the native I. noli-tangere has efficient reproduction at its range edge while the invasive I. parviflora shows a marked decrease in seed size and seed number per capsule. These patterns are unrelated to the growth and obtained size of the plants: even low soil nitrogen availability in the north seemed not to limit plant growth and size. Our results suggest that the invasive I. parviflora tends to become more invasive at lower latitudes by producing heavier seeds and more seeds per capsule.     

Invasive alien plants in China: diversity and ecological insights

China’s current invasive alien plant species were analyzed with regard to their floristic status, biological attributes and invasion status elsewhere. Most of the 270 species identified were annuals, followed by perennial herbs. Woody perennials made only about 10% of the species. The invasives were comprised of 59 families, the largest being Asteraceae, Poaceae, and Brassicaceae. The genera with most invasive species were Amaranthus, Ipomoea, and Solanum. Most of the species originated from the New World, notably from South America. About one-third of the species were serious invaders of natural habitats in countries other than China. The proportion of invasive alien plants in province floras ranged from 0.5 to 3.8%, absolute numbers from nine to 117 species per province. Density of invasive species was correlated positively with native species density at provincial scale. The results demonstrate that in China invasive plants are present throughout the country, with a particularly high species richness in the Southeast. The ecological diversity of invasive plants suggests wide ranging impacts which need to be assessed.     

Alien fungal species distribution: the study case of Favolaschia calocera

Invasive organisms (especially plants and animal species) are considered to be one of the main causes of global biodiversity loss. Up to now, few papers have dealt with the spreading of fungi. The establishment of the geographic origin of alien organisms could be useful to assess their impact on the environment. Favolaschia calocera is a basidiomycete species which was first described from Madagascar, and successively observed in New Zealand in 1969, where it has currently been recorded in more than 200 stands. It has recently also been reported in Australia, Thailand, China, Kenya, and Reunion Island. F. calocera was found in Genoa, Italy, in 1999: this recording represented the first in Europe. Till now, Favolaschia specimens have been collected in six areas around Genoa. F. calocera was observed growing on debris of various vascular plant species (Pteridophytes, Conifers, Mono- and Dicotyledons), thus showing to be a polyphagous species. Because it is spreading, it needs to be monitored. The main goal of our research is to investigate, through molecular phylogeographic analysis, the origin of the Italian strains. The sequencing of the ribosomal DNA ITS region of the Italian specimens followed by Neighbour-joining analysis showed that they cluster with the specimens from New Zealand, Kenya, Norfolk Island and Réunion Island. Hypotheses on the origin and introduction way as well as on its mechanisms of spreading are provided.     

Environmental responses of plants and ecosystems as predictors of the impact of global change

An understanding of plant responses to fluctuations in environment is critical to predictions of plant and ecosystem responses to climate change. In the northern hemisphere, the northern limits of distribution of major biomes are probably determined by the tolerance of their dominant physiognomic types (e.g., deciduous hardwood trees) to minimum winter temperatures and can thus be predicted from long-term patterns of temperature fluctuations. At a more detailed level, the responses of functional groups of plants to altered climate can be predicted from their known responses to fluctuations in soil resources (nutrients and water) and the expected effect of climatic change on these soil resources. Laboratory and field experiments demonstrate the feasibility of this approach.     

Phenological responses of plants to climate change in an urban environment

Global climate change is likely to alter the phenological patterns of plants due to the controlling effects of climate on plant ontogeny, especially in an urbanized environment. We studied relationships between various phenophases (i.e., seasonal biological events) and interannual variations of air temperature in three woody plant species (Prunus davidiana, Hibiscus syriacus, and Cercis chinensis) in the Beijing Metropolis, China, based on phenological data for the period 1962–2004 and meteorological data for the period 1951–2004. Analysis of phenology and climate data indicated significant changes in spring and autumn phenophases and temperatures. Changes in phenophases were observed for all the three species, consistent with patterns of rising air temperatures in the Beijing Metropolis. The changing phenology in the three plant species was reflected mainly as advances of the spring phenophases and delays in the autumn phenophases, but with strong variations among species and phenophases in response to different temperature indices. Most phenophases (both spring and autumn phenophases) had significant relationships with temperatures of the preceding months. There existed large inter- and intra-specific variations, however, in the responses of phenology to climate change. It is clear that the urban heat island effect from 1978 onwards is a dominant cause of the observed phenological changes. Differences in phenological responses to climate change may cause uncertain ecological consequences, with implications for ecosystem stability and function in urban environments.     

Projected changes in distributions of Australian tropical savanna birds under climate change using three dispersal scenarios

Identifying the species most vulnerable to extinction as a result of climate change is a necessary first step in mitigating biodiversity decline. Species distribution modeling (SDM) is a commonly used tool to assess potential climate change impacts on distributions of species. We use SDMs to predict geographic ranges for 243 birds of Australian tropical savannas, and to project changes in species richness and ranges under a future climate scenario between 1990 and 2080. Realistic predictions require recognition of the variability in species capacity to track climatically suitable environments. Here we assess the effect of dispersal on model results by using three approaches: full dispersal, no dispersal and a partial-dispersal scenario permitting species to track climate change at a rate of 30 km per decade. As expected, the projected distributions and richness patterns are highly sensitive to the dispersal scenario. Projected future range sizes decreased for 66% of species if full dispersal was assumed, but for 89% of species when no dispersal was assumed. However, realistic future predictions should not assume a single dispersal scenario for all species and as such, we assigned each species to the most appropriate dispersal category based on individual mobility and habitat specificity; this permitted the best estimates of where species will be in the future. Under this "realistic" dispersal scenario, projected ranges sizes decreased for 67% of species but showed that migratory and tropical-endemic birds are predicted to benefit from climate change with increasing distributional area. Richness hotspots of tropical savanna birds are expected to move, increasing in southern savannas and southward along the east coast of Australia, but decreasing in the arid zone. Understanding the complexity of effects of climate change on species' range sizes by incorporating dispersal capacities is a crucial step toward developing adaptation policies for the conservation of vulnerable species.     

Modelling the effects of climate change on an acidic upland stream

Most modelling studies of soil and surface water recovery from acidification assume a constant influence of climate over the simulation period. Given the likelihood of future climate change, and recent identification of links between climatic fluctuations and surface water trends on decadal time scales, an attempt is made to simulate a number of climate-related effects on the recovery of an acidified stream in mid-Wales. Empirical relationships were derived to model past and future variations in (i) runoff, as a function of rainfall and temperature; (ii) stream chloride concentration and sea-salt deposition, as a function of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI); and (iii) stream dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration, as a function of summer temperatures and sulphur deposition. Incorporating these relationships in the MAGIC dynamic model reproduced a significant part of the observed variation in streamwater chemistry. Current scenarios of rising UK temperature and NAOI, and falling rainfall and acid deposition, were used to forecast effects of climate change on soil and water recovery from acidification. Results suggest that increasing DOC would have a significant negative impact on soil recovery, with elevated organic acidity lowering soil water pH and severely depleting soil base saturation. The resulting increase in soil base cation export would, however, have a positive impact on streamwater recovery. For increased sea-salt deposition, effects are essentially the opposite; increased base cation inputs enhance the recovery of soil base saturation, but displace acidity to the stream. However, simulated effects of raising DOC considerably outweighed those of increased sea-salt deposition. It is argued that greater consideration of these, and other, climatic effects on biogeochemical cycles needs to be taken when predicting the recovery of soils and surface waters from acidification.     

Global climate change and accuracy of prediction of species' geographical ranges: establishment success of introduced ladybirds (Coccinellidae, Chilocorus spp.) worldwide

AimPredictions of how the geographical ranges of species change implicitly assume that range can be determined without invoking climate change. The aim here was to determine how accurate predictions of range change might be before entertaining global climatic change. LocationWorldwide. MethodsAll the documented global biological control translocations of ladybirds (Coccinellidae: Chilocorus spp.) were analysed with the ecoclimatic program, CLIMEX. This program determines species distributions in relation to climate, and can be used to express the favourableness of different localities for a species. CLIMEX is also a useful exploratory tool for determining the likelihood of establishment of species introduced from one area to another. ResultsPredictive models were developed based on the likelihood of establishment of fifteen Chilocorus spp. relative to their physiological characteristics and climatic tolerances. This likelihood was compared with actual establishment with a resultant range of 0% accuracy to 100% accuracy. Only four (26.7%) species climatic tolerances could the predicted with 100% certainty. The general lack of accurate prediction was because climate is not always the overriding feature determining whether a species will establish or not. Other determinants, such as localized response to microclimate, phenology, host type and availability, presence of natural enemies and hibernation sites play a varying role over and above climate in determining whether a species will establish at a new locality. Main conclusionsThis study shows that even in the absence of climate change, range cannot always be determined, which means that most predictions of range change with climate change are likely to be wrong.     

The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change

The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition.     

Assessing the impact of a downscaled climate change simulation on the fish fauna in an Inner-Alpine River

This study assesses the impact of a changing climate on fish fauna by comparing the past mean state of fish assemblage to a possible future mean state. It is based on (1) local scale observations along an Inner-Alpine river called Mur, (2) an IPCC emission scenario (IS92a), implemented by atmosphere-ocean global circulation model (AOGCM) ECHAM4/OPYC3, and (3) a model-chain that links climate research to hydrobiology. The Mur River is still in a near-natural condition and water temperature in summer is the most important aquatic ecological constraint for fish distribution. The methodological strategy is (1) to use downscaled air temperature and precipitation scenarios for the first half of the twenty-first century, (2) to establish a model that simulates water temperature by means of air temperature and flow rate in order to generate water temperature scenarios, and (3) to evaluate the impact on fish communities using an ecological model that is driven by water temperature. This methodology links the response of fish fauna to an IPCC emission scenario and is to our knowledge an unprecedented approach. The downscaled IS92a scenarios show increased mean air temperatures during the whole year and increased precipitation totals during summer, but reduced totals for the rest of the annual cycle. These changes result in scenarios of increased water temperatures, an altered annual cycle of flow rate, and, in turn, a 70 m displacement in elevation of fish communities towards the river’s head. This would enhance stress on species that rely on low water temperatures and coerce cyprinid species into advancing against retreating salmonids. Hyporhithral river sectors would turn into epipotamal sectors. Grayling (Thymallus thymallus) and Danube salmon (Hucho hucho), presently characteristic for the Mur River, would be superceded by other species. Native brown trout (Salmo trutta), already now under pressure of competition, may be at risk of losing its habitat in favour of invaders like the exotic rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), which are better adapted to higher water temperatures. Projected changes in fish communities suggest an adverse influence on salmonid sport fishing and a loss in its high economic value.     

Diversity patterns of small mammals in the Zambales Mts., Luzon, Philippines

In 2004 and 2005, we conducted a survey of the small mammals on Mt. Tapulao (=Mt. High Peak, 2037 m) in the Zambales Mountains, Luzon Island, Philippines in order to obtain the first information on the mammals of this newly discovered center of endemism. We also tested two hypotheses regarding the relationship of species richness with elevation and the impact of alien species on native mammals. The survey covered five localities representing habitats from regenerating lowland rain forest at 860 m to mossy rain forest near the peak at 2024 m. We recorded 11 species, including 1 native shrew, 1 alien shrew, 8 native rodents, and 1 alien rodent. Two species of Apomys and one species of Rhynchomys are endemic to Zambales; this establishes the Zambales Mountains as a significant center of mammalian endemism. Species richness of native small mammals increased with elevation, from five species in the lowlands at 925 m to seven species in mossy forest at 2024 m; total relative abundance of native small mammals increased from 925 to 1690 m, then declined at 2024 m. Alien small mammals were restricted to highly disturbed areas. Our results support the prediction that maximum species richness of small mammals would occur in lower mossy forest near the peak, not near the center of the gradient. Our results also support the hypothesis that when a diverse community of native Philippine small mammals is present in either old-growth or disturbed forest habitat, “invasive” alien species are unable to penetrate and maintain significant populations in forest.     

Potential impacts of climate change on the distributions and diversity patterns of European mammals

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase in global temperatures of between 1.4°C and 5.8°C during the 21st century, as a result of elevated CO₂ levels. Using bioclimatic envelope models, we evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distributions and species richness of 120 native terrestrial non-volant European mammals under two of IPCC’s future climatic scenarios. Assuming unlimited and no migration, respectively, our model predicts that 1% or 5–9% of European mammals risk extinction, while 32–46% or 70–78% may be severely threatened (lose > 30% of their current distribution) under the two scenarios. Under the no migration assumption endemic species were predicted to be strongly negatively affected by future climatic changes, while widely distributed species would be more mildly affected. Finally, potential mammalian species richness is predicted to become dramatically reduced in the Mediterranean region but increase towards the northeast and for higher elevations. Bioclimatic envelope models do not account for non-climatic factors such as land-use, biotic interactions, human interference, dispersal or history, and our results should therefore be seen as first approximations of the potential magnitude of future climatic changes.     

The impact investigation and adaptation strategy analysis of climate change on nature reserve in China

Nature reserve has been served as the important pathway for biodiversity conservation and carbon storage. Global climate change is an indisputable fact and impacted the biodiversity and nature reserve. How nature reserves adapt to climate change has drawn more and more concerns. This research conducted questionnaires of 68 national nature reserves from 24 provincial regions, and the questionnaires showed that all surveyed nature reserves experienced climate change, and 68.57%, 61.43% and 68.57% of nature reserves, respectively, considered warming temperature, precipitation change, and occurrence of extreme climate events as new threats to them. These new factors directly threat the distribution range and survival of endangered species, change of ecosystem function, enhance of pest and disease damages, and directed damage the infrastructures. However, most of the surveyed nature reserves did not consider the systematic monitoring the facts of climate change, and lack actions and strategies of initiative adaptation to climate change. At last, we proposed the strategies for nature reserves to adapt to climate change, including enhancing the monitoring on the impact of climate change, making scientific planning and designing for development of nature reserves, decreasing the pressure through sustainable development, and enhancing the scientific research and the investment to improve the ability of nature reserves to adapt to climate change.     

Land use history, hurricane disturbance, and the fate of introduced species in a subtropical wet forest in Puerto Rico

Tropical forests are suffering from increasing intensities and frequency of disturbances. As a result, non-native species accidentally introduced or intentionally planted for farming, plantations, and ornamental purposes may spread and potentially invade undisturbed native forest. It is not known if these introduced species will become invasive, as a result of recurrent natural disturbances such as hurricanes. Using data from three censuses (spanning 15 years) of a 16-ha subtropical wet forest plot, we investigated the impact of two hurricanes on populations of plant species that were planted in farms and plantations that were then abandoned and from the natural spread of species introduced into Puerto Rico in the past. The populations of four species (Citrus paradis, Mangifera indica, Musa sp., and Simarouba glauca) changed little over time. Six species (Artocarpus altilis, Calophyllum calaba, Genipa americana, Hibiscus pernambucensis, Syzygium jambos, and Swietenia macrophylla) declined between the first two censuses after Hurricane Hugo, then increased again in Census 3 after Hurricane Georges. Spathodea campanulata gradually increased from census to census, while Coffea arabica declined. These introduced species represent only a small part of the forest basal area and few show signs of increasing over time. The number of stems per plant, new recruits, and the growth rates of these introduced species were within the ranges of those for native plant species. The mortality rates over both census intervals were significantly lower for introduced species (<5% year⁻¹) than for native ones (15% year⁻¹). Many new recruits established after Hurricane Hugo (prior to this study) had opened the forest canopy and these high mortality rates reflect their death as the canopy recovered. Only Swietenia macrophylla and Syzygium jambos showed an increase in stem numbers in the closed canopy area of forest that had suffered limited human disturbance in the past. A future increase in frequency of disturbance may enable greater stem numbers of introduced species to establish, while lower-mortality rates compared to native species, may allow them to persist during inter-hurricane intervals. An increase in the population of introduced species, especially for those that grow into large trees, may have an impact on this tropical forest in the future.     

Modelling species' range shifts in a changing climate: the impacts of biotic interactions, dispersal distance and the rate of climate change

There is an urgent need for accurate prediction of climate change impacts on species ranges. Current reliance on bioclimatic envelope approaches ignores important biological processes such as interactions and dispersal. Although much debated, it is unclear how such processes might influence range shifting. Using individual-based modelling we show that interspecific interactions and dispersal ability interact with the rate of climate change to determine range-shifting dynamics in a simulated community with two growth forms--mutualists and competitors. Interactions determine spatial arrangements of species prior to the onset of rapid climate change. These lead to space-occupancy effects that limit the rate of expansion of the fast-growing competitors but which can be overcome by increased long-distance dispersal. As the rate of climate change increases, lower levels of long-distance dispersal can drive the mutualists to extinction, demonstrating the potential for subtle process balances, non-linear dynamics and abrupt changes from species coexistence to species loss during climate change.     

Contemporary perspectives on the niche that can improve models of species range shifts under climate change

Pioneering efforts to predict shifts in species distribution under climate change used simple models based on the correlation between contemporary environmental factors and distributions. These models make predictions at coarse spatial scales and assume the constancy of present correlations between environment and distribution. Adaptive management of climate change impacts requires models that can make more robust predictions at finer spatio-temporal scales by accounting for processes that actually affect species distribution on heterogeneous landscapes. Mechanistic models of the distribution of both species and vegetation types have begun to emerge to meet these needs. We review these developments and highlight how recent advances in our understanding of relationships among the niche concept, species diversity and community assembly point the way towards more effective models for the impacts of global change on species distribution and community diversity.