Building Resilience in Lagoon Social–Ecological Systems: A Local-level Perspective

Building resilience in integrated human and nature systems or social–ecological systems (SES) is key for sustainability. Therefore, developing ways of assessing resilience is of practical as well as theoretical significance. We approached the issue by focusing on the local level and using five lagoon systems from various parts of the world for illustration. We used a framework based on four categories of factors for building resilience: (1) learning to live with change and uncertainty; (2) nurturing diversity for reorganization and renewal; (3) combining different kinds of knowledge; and (4) creating opportunity for self-organization. Under each category, the cases generated a number of items for building resilience, and potential surrogates of resilience, that is, variables through which the persistence of SES emerging through change can be assessed. The following factors were robust across all five lagoon SES cases: learning from crisis, responding to change, nurturing ecological memory, monitoring the environment, and building capacity for self-organization and conflict management.     

Toward ecologically scaled landscape indices

Nature conservation is increasingly based on a landscape approach rather than a species approach. Landscape planning that includes nature conservation goals requires integrated ecological tools. However, species differ widely in their response to landscape change. We propose a framework of ecologically scaled landscape indices that takes into account this variation. Our approach is based on a combination of field studies of spatially structured populations (metapopulations) and model simulations in artificial landscapes. From these, we seek generalities in the relationship among species features, landscape indices, and metapopulation viability. The concept of ecological species profiles is used to group species according to characteristics that are important in metapopulations' response to landscape change: individual area requirements as the dominant characteristic of extinction risk in landscape patches and dispersal distance as the main determinant of the ability to colonize patches. The ecological profiles and landscape indices are then integrated into two ecologically scaled landscape indices (ESLI): average patch carrying capacity and average patch connectivity. The field data show that the fraction of occupied habitat patches is correlated with the two ESLI. To put the ESLI into a perspective of metapopulation persistence, we determine the viability for six ecological profiles at different degrees of habitat fragmentation using a metapopulation model and computer-generated landscapes. The model results show that the fraction of occupied patches is a good indicator for metapopulation viability. We discuss how ecological profiles, ESLI, and the viability threshold can be applied for landscape planning and design in nature conservation.     

基于全域连通性识别气候变化风险下的生物多样性保护优先区——以京津冀为例

在保护优先区规划中,有必要考虑气候变化的潜在风险并关注物种在气候驱动下的扩散格局。基于未来生物气候数据、地形多样性数据以及土地利用数据,应用Omniscape算法,对21世纪中叶(2040-2061年)气候变化情景下京津冀地区陆生哺乳动物的扩散进行全域连通性建模并与当前情景对比分析,识别出生物多样性保护优先区。结果表明:区域尺度下,气候变化风险使得高连通性的区域逐渐从平原向山区转移,分布趋于集中;斑块尺度下,林缘连通性较高,而位于林地或草地边缘的耕地连通性低。在此基础上,共识别生物多样性保护优先区共51786 km²,其中涵养区(占56.4%)在当前和未来的连通状况均较为良好;优化区(占38.4%)应提升生境质量以满足未来连通性的更高需求;而修复区(占5.22%)面临的气候变化风险较高,亟需进行生态修复以免在未来出现连通性夹点。本研究通过评估京津冀地区两种情景下的全域连通格局,为生物多样性保护的气候适应性规划提供了科学依据。     

Epiphyte sensitivity to a cross-scale interaction between habitat quality and macroclimate: an opportunity for range-edge conservation

Bioclimatic envelope models are frequently used to project the species response to climate change scenarios. Development and improvement of bioclimatic models has focussed on data properties and statistical tools, while significant criticism continues to challenge the ecological framework of model assumptions. We hypothesised that a potential for model improvement emerges from linkage across scales, between macroclimate and variation in local habitat quality: i.e. a species’ habitat specificity may shift along macroclimatic gradients. We first sampled two test-case epiphytic lichen species across a steep climatic gradient, and second developed standard bioclimatic models accompanied by a threshold likelihood value for discriminating presences and absences. We used the difference between predicted model values and the threshold as a response variable (D _thr): we show that values for D _thr are explained by an interaction between the climatic setting and habitat quality. A potential error in bioclimatic models is then quantified as the region of false absences or presences, which would be incurred as a consequence of sensitivity to variable habitat. This signature habitat effect occurs at a species’ range-edge, and, as a corollary, provides quantification in support of conservation: i.e. information is provided on how a habitat may be managed in marginal climatic regions (leading or trailing range-edge boundaries) in order to promote species protection.     

Critical thresholds associated with habitat loss: a review of the concepts, evidence, and applications

A major conservation concern is whether population size and other ecological variables change linearly with habitat loss, or whether they suddenly decline more rapidly below a “critical threshold” level of habitat. The most commonly discussed explanation for critical threshold responses to habitat loss focus on habitat configuration. As habitat loss progresses, the remaining habitat is increasingly fragmented or the fragments are increasingly isolated, which may compound the effects of habitat loss. In this review we also explore other possible explanations for apparently nonlinear relationships between habitat loss and ecological responses, including Allee effects and time lags, and point out that some ecological variables will inherently respond nonlinearly to habitat loss even in the absence of compounding factors. In the literature, both linear and nonlinear ecological responses to habitat loss are evident among simulation and empirical studies, although the presence and value of critical thresholds is influenced by characteristics of the species (e.g. dispersal, reproduction, area/edge sensitivity) and landscape (e.g. fragmentation, matrix quality, rate of change). With enough empirical support, such trends could be useful for making important predictions about species' responses to habitat loss, to guide future research on the underlying causes of critical thresholds, and to make better informed management decisions. Some have seen critical thresholds as a means of identifying conservation targets for habitat retention. We argue that in many cases this may be misguided, and that the meaning (and utility) of a critical threshold must be interpreted carefully and in relation to the response variable and management goal. Despite recent interest in critical threshold responses to habitat loss, most studies have not used any formal statistical methods to identify their presence or value. Methods that have been used include model comparisons using Akaike information criterion (AIC) or t‐tests, and significance testing for changes in slope or for polynomial effects. The judicious use of statistics to help determine the shape of ecological relationships would permit greater objectivity and more comparability among studies.     

流域生态空间与生态保护红线规划方法——以长江流域为例

生态空间是指以提供生态系统服务为主要目标的地域范围,确定生态空间范围是协调保护与发展、保障生态服务持续供给的基础。长江流域是中华民族的摇篮与中国文化发祥地之一,是中国经济发展的重要增长极,以及具有全球意义的生物多样性热点区。以长江流域为对象,探讨面向流域生态空间规划的方法与管理对策。研究中,选择生态系统服务指标(水源涵养、洪水调蓄、水质净化、水土保持和生物多样性维护)和生态敏感性指标(水土流失、石漠化和土地沙化),基于流域水文路径分析和与其关联的生态系统服务的受益人口,提出一种流域尺度的生态空间规划方法。研究结果显示,长江流域生态空间面积为102.25万km^2,占长江流域总面积的57.42%,森林占52.87%,灌丛占19.51%,草地占18.96%,湿地占4.26%,保护了79.47%的水源涵养功能,86.99%的洪水调蓄功能,78.09%的水质净化功能,80.60%的水土保持功能,以及86.49%的自然栖息地。在生态空间规划的基础上,进一步探讨了长江流域生态保护红线的格局,现阶段生态保护红线面积为59.25万km^2,占长江流域总面积的33.27%,其中上游占比59.24%,中游和下游分别占比38.05%和2.71%。本文提出的规划方法与研究结果,不仅可以为长江流域生态空间规划、保障流域生态安全和促进流域经济社会可持续发展提供依据,还可以为其他流域的生态空间的规划提供参考。     

Toward Holistic Evaluation and Assessment: Linking Ecosystems and Human Well-Being for the Three Gorges Dam

A significant challenge exists in assessing the social and ecological impacts of development projects in a holistic and comprehensive manner. Our objective is to elucidate the linkages between ecological change and human well-being, and its importance in integrated assessment policy for development projects, using the Three Gorges Dam (China) as a case study. A collaborative research initiative was undertaken to review and synthesize published information on the ecological and human health effects of the Three Gorges Dam. Our synthesis suggests that the Three Gorges Dam has altered social–ecological dynamics of human health and ecosystem function in the Yangtze River basin with significant consequences for human well-being. Direct impacts to human well-being were grouped into four primary categories, including: (1) toxicological impacts; (2) shifting infectious disease dynamics; (3) natural hazards; and (4) social health. Social–ecological relationships were altered in complex ways, with both direct and indirect effects, positive and negative interactions, and chronic and acute impacts on human well-being. Our synthesis supports a comprehensive evaluation of development projects via integrated assessments of human and environmental consequences. This is probably best achieved through a coupled social–environmental impact assessment to ensure holistic and comprehensive analyses of expected costs and benefits. The role of research can thereby be to elucidate the linkages between ecosystems and human health to better inform the assessment process. A synthesis of the existing information on the Three Gorges suggests that this is best achieved through institutional collaboration and transdisciplinary integration of expertise.     

Old-growth forest is what giant pandas really need

Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) are an iconic conservation species, but despite significant research effort, do we understand what they really need? Estimating and mapping suitable habitat play a critical role in conservation planning and policy. But if assumptions about ecological needs are wrong, maps with misidentified suitable habitat will misguide conservation action. Here, we use an information-theoretic approach to analyse the largest, landscape-level dataset on panda habitat use to date, and challenge the prevailing wisdom about panda habitat needs. We show that pandas are associated with old-growth forest more than with any ecological variable other than bamboo. Other factors traditionally used in panda habitat models, such as topographic slope, are less important. We suggest that our findings are disparate from previous research in part because our research was conducted over a larger ecological scale than previous research conducted over more circumscribed areas within individual reserves. Thus, extrapolating from habitat studies on small scales to conservation planning on large scales may entail some risk. As the Chinese government is considering the renewal of its logging ban, it should take heed of the panda''s dependency on old growth.     

Ecological thresholds: Concept,Methods and research outlooks

The concept of ecological thresholds was raised in the 1970s. However, it was subsequently given different definitions and interpretations depending on research fields or disciplines. For most scientists, ecological thresholds refer to the points or zones that link abrupt changes between alternative stable states of an ecosystem. The measurement and quantification of ecological thresholds have great theoretical and practical significance in ecological research for clarifying the structure and function of ecosystems, for planning sustainable development modes, and for delimiting ecological red lines in managing the ecosystems of a region. By reviewing the existing concepts and classifications of ecological thresholds, we propose a new concept and definition at two different levels: the ecological threshold points, i.e. the turning points of quantitative changes to qualitative changes, which can be considered as ecological red lines; the ecological threshold zones, i.e. the regime shifts of the quantitative changes among different stable states, which can be considered as the yellow and/or orange warning boundaries of the gradual ecological changes. The yellow thresholds mean that an ecosystem can return to a stable state by its self-adjustment, the orange thresholds indicate that the ecosystem will stay in the equilibrium state after interference factors being removed, whereas the red thresholds, as the critical threshold points, indicate that the ecosystem will undergo irreversible degradation or even collapse beyond those points. We also summarizes two types of popular Methods in determining ecological thresholds: statistical analysis and modeling based on data of field observations. The applications of ecological thresholds in ecosystem service, biodiversity conservation and ecosystem management research are also reviewed. Future research on ecological thresholds should focus on the following aspects: (1) methodological development for measurement and quantification of ecological thresholds; (2) emphasizing the scaling effect of ecological thresholds and establishment of national-scale observation system and network; and (3) implementation of ecological thresholds as early warning tools in ecosystem management and delimiting ecological red lines.     

Sustained by Snakes? Seasonal Livelihood Strategies and Resource Conservation by Tonle Sap Fishers in Cambodia

This paper situates concerns for conservation of aquatic snakes and livelihood sustainability in Cambodia within a social–ecological systems context and thereby presents a challenge to conventional species-based conservation programmes. Fishing for low-value water snakes has become a widespread activity within the floating communities of Tonle Sap Lake in the last 20 years in response to new market opportunities, provided primarily by a crocodile farming industry. The scale and intensity of this new form of exploitation and reports of declines in catch per fisher have highlighted this activity as a conservation concern, yet its role within local livelihood strategies was previously unknown. We show that it is of increasing importance to the less well-off, and is linked to higher incomes within this group, where it potentially reduces their vulnerability to fluctuations and declines in fish catches. It is particularly important as a means to smooth seasonality of incomes in this flood pulse-driven social–ecological system. We argue that shifts between snake-hunting and fishing, as a market-driven adaptive livelihood strategy by the poor, may be more compatible with wider ecosystem conservation and development goals than alternatives such as increased fishing effort or converting floodplain habitats for seasonal agriculture.

The Great Escarpment of southern Africa: a new frontier for biodiversity exploration

The biodiversity of the 5,000 km-long Great Escarpment of southern Africa is currently poorly known, despite hosting half of the subcontinent’s centres of plant endemism and to have a rich endemic vertebrate fauna, particularly in the north-west and east. A country-based overview of endemism, data deficiencies and conservation challenges is provided, with Angola being the country in most need of Escarpment research and conservation. Given that the Escarpment provides most of the subcontinent’s fresh water, protection and restoration of Escarpment habitat providing such ecological services is urgently required. Key research needs are exhaustive biodiversity surveys, systematic studies to test refugia and migration hypotheses, and the effects of modern climate change. Such research results can then be consolidated into effective conservation planning and co-ordinated international efforts to protect the rich biodiversity of the Escarpment and the ecological services it provides.     

A rapid ecological network assessment tool and its use in locating habitat extension areas in a changing landscape

An understanding of the ecological systems which dictate landscape form and function must be achieved in order to objectively view development led landscape ecological change. Habitat fragmentation, loss and isolation of habitat patches and reduced connectivity are having a significant detrimental effect on the way our landscapes function. A conservation planning tool which considers these issues in tandem with planned landscape level change, whilst incorporating species and habitat specific details, is necessary if we are to ameliorate the ecological impact of built development.A landscape scale modelling approach was developed for a case study area in the South Midlands of the UK to investigate spatial targeting of habitat extension areas. Habitat extension opportunities currently arise as a consequence of existing planning regulations and conditions and are likely to increase as the concept of habitat “banking” is embraced. Ecological networks and ecoprofiles were employed to guide the location of these extension areas via an examination of the landscape ecology effects of area composition, size and location. The ability of extension areas to contribute to landscape functionality was determined spatially. Habitat extension areas identified by the approach increased the existing ecological network size by a factor of over 2.7:1 and were able to deliver the majority of habitat creation targets set out in regional Biodiversity Action Plans (BAPs). 100% of wetland, unimproved grassland and broadleaf and mixed woodland creation targets were met, whilst 75% of the lowland heath target could be achieved. Semi-natural habitat mosaic areas of over 3700 ha which incorporated habitat of more than one type were identified, with such areas determined to be of importance in achieving landscape improvements for a wide range of species. We conclude that rapid assessment tools such as that employed in this research will have increased utility in conservation planning as the British landscape continues to experience both sustained and elevated levels of built development pressure.     

Navigating challenges and opportunities of land degradation and sustainable livelihood development in dryland social–ecological systems: a case study from Mexico

Drylands are one of the most diverse yet highly vulnerable social–ecological systems on Earth. Water scarcity has contributed to high levels of heterogeneity, variability and unpredictability, which together have shaped the long coadaptative process of coupling humans and nature. Land degradation and desertification in drylands are some of the largest and most far-reaching global environmental and social change problems, and thus are a daunting challenge for science and society. In this study, we merged the Drylands Development Paradigm, Holling''s adaptive cycle metaphor and resilience theory to assess the challenges and opportunities for livelihood development in the Amapola dryland social–ecological system (DSES), a small isolated village in the semi-arid region of Mexico. After 450 years of local social–ecological evolution, external drivers (neoliberal policies, change in land reform legislation) have become the most dominant force in livelihood development, at the cost of loss of natural and cultural capital and an increasingly dysfunctional landscape. Local DSESs have become increasingly coupled to dynamic larger-scale drivers. Hence, cross-scale connectedness feeds back on and transforms local self-sustaining subsistence farming conditions, causing loss of livelihood resilience and diversification in a globally changing world. Effective efforts to combat desertification and improve livelihood security in DSESs need to consider their cyclical rhythms. Hence, we advocate novel dryland stewardship strategies, which foster adaptive capacity, and continuous evaluation and social learning at all levels. Finally, we call for an effective, flexible and viable policy framework that enhances local biotic and cultural diversity of drylands to transform global drylands into a resilient biome in the context of global environmental and social change.     

Predicted impact of exotic vines on an endangered ecological community under future climate change

Potential interactions between climate change and exotic plant invasions may affect areas of high conservation value, such as land set aside for the protection of endangered species or ecological communities. We investigated this issue in eastern Australia using species distribution models for five exotic vines under climate regimes for 2020 and 2050. We examined how projected changes in the distribution of climatically suitable habitat may coincide with the remaining remnants of an endangered ecological community—littoral rainforests—in this region. The number of known infestations of each weed in tropical, subtropical and temperate areas was used to assess the likelihood of further expansion into areas projected to provide suitable habitat under future conditions. Littoral rainforest reserves were consistently predicted to provide bioclimatically suitable habitat for the five vines examined under both current and future climate scenarios. We explore the consequences and potential strategies for managing exotic plant invasions in these protected areas in the coming decades.     

Framework for quantifying population responses to disturbance reveals that coastal birds are highly resilient to hurricanes

Changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather may introduce new threats to species that are already under stress from gradual habitat loss and climate change. We provide a probabilistic framework that quantifies potential threats by applying concepts from ecological resilience to single populations. Our approach uses computation to compare disturbance–impacted projections to a population's normal range of variation, quantifying the full range of potential impacts. We illustrate this framework with projection models for coastal birds, which are commonly depicted as vulnerable to disturbances, especially hurricanes and oil spills. We found that populations of coastal specialists are resilient to extreme disturbances, with high resistance to the effects of short‐term reductions in vital rates and recovery within 20 years. Applying the general framework presented here across disturbance‐prone species and ecosystems would improve understanding of population resilience and generate specific projections of resilience that are needed for effective conservation planning.     

土地利用变化对鸟类栖息地连通性的影响——以鄂州市为例

土地利用变化是造成栖息地破碎、缺失与退化的重要原因。生态网络能保护重要栖息地,促进栖息地之间的物质与能量流动,对区域土地利用规划和生物多样性保护具有重要意义。以鄂州市为研究区,基于CLUE-S模型预测现状延续、生态保护和城市扩张3种土地利用情景,将生境质量作为遴选生境斑块的依据之一,以鸟类最大迁徙距离为阈值构建生态网络,从连通概率指数PC和斑块重要性指数dPC两方面,探讨土地利用变化对鸟类栖息地连通性的影响。结果表明：(1)不同情景的地类数量和空间结构均有差异,与生态保护相比,城市扩张情景的建设用地增加11603.52 hm~2,林地、耕地和水体减少5041.8 hm~2、2540.16 hm~2、3385.8 hm~2,新城区、山地风景区与水体周边是主要变化区域;(2)现状延续和城市扩张情景的生境斑块降至235块和216块,网络出现破碎化,生态保护情景增至367块,网络结构完整但空间位置改变;(3)2004—2024年PC表现为先上升后下降再上升的趋势,生态保护的PC高于现状延续和城市扩张,且利于保护短距离迁徙鸟类;(4)生态保护情景边缘型和关键小型斑块得到保护,第一等级斑块增加,城...     

Changing conservation strategies in Europe: a framework integrating ecosystem services and dynamics

Protecting species and their habitats through the designation and management of protected areas is central to present biodiversity conservation efforts in Europe. Recent awareness of the importance of ecosystem dynamics in changing environments and of human needs for the sustainable provision of ecosystem services expose potential weaknesses in current European conservation management strategies and policy. Here we examine these issues in the light of information gained from reviews, workshops, interviews and discussions undertaken within the RUBICODE project. We present a new conceptual framework that joins conventional biodiversity conservation with new requirements. The framework links cultural and aesthetic values applied in a static environment to the demands of dynamic ecosystems and societal needs within social–ecological systems in a changing Europe. We employ this framework to propose innovative ways in which ecosystem service provision may be used to add value to traditional conservation approaches by supporting and complementing present European biodiversity conservation strategy and policy while remaining within the guidelines of the Convention on Biological Diversity.     

海湾生态韧性的陆海统筹测度与治理研究——基于厦门湾系统性视角

海岸带长期承受陆海生态风险的交互扰动,基于陆海统筹的系统性治理是提升其生态韧性的重要途径。海岸带生态管治条块分割的问题突出,生态系统具有相对独立性的海湾,作为陆海统筹的实施单元,为海岸带生态韧性测度与规划提供了新视角。在梳理海湾生态要素构成的基础上,分析陆海生态灾害诱因及其作用方式,进而厘清海湾生态系统的韧性响应机制。在陆海统筹目标下构建了海湾生态韧性测评指标体系,并以厦门湾为空间单元展开实例研究,采用相关模型剖析厦门湾陆域-海域生态韧性的耦合协调特征及演进驱动因子;聚焦厦门湾生态韧性薄弱之处,从构筑生态安全格局、分级整治韧性空间、联动管控韧性要素、建构跨界协同机制4个维度提出陆海统筹治理策略,以促进厦门湾生态系统可持续发展。该研究的理论建构及实践总结可为其他海湾单元生态文明建设提供参考。     

Climate change, connectivity and conservation decision making: back to basics

1.  The challenge of climate change forces us to re-examine the assumptions underlying conservation planning.
2.  Increasing 'connectivity' has emerged as the most favoured option for conservation in the face of climate change.
3.  We argue that the importance of connectivity is being overemphasized: quantifying the benefits of connectivity per se is plagued with uncertainty, and connectivity can be co-incidentally improved by targeting more concrete metrics: habitat area and habitat quality.
4.   Synthesis and applications . Before investing in connectivity projects, conservation practitioners should analyse the benefits expected to arise from increasing connectivity and compare them with alternative investments, to ensure as much biodiversity conservation and resilience to climate change as possible within their budget. Strategies that we expect to remain robust in the face of climate change include maintaining and increasing the area of high quality habitats, prioritizing areas that have high environmental heterogeneity and controlling other anthropogenic threatening processes.     

High Population Density of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pan troglodytes verus</Emphasis> in the Haut Niger National Park,Republic of Guinea: Implications for Local and Regional Conservation

The Republic of Guinea harbours the largest population of the endangered western chimpanzees Pan troglodytes verus, and the conservation of this population is regarded as a regional priority. Chimpanzees occur in 3 of the 5 protected areas in Guinea but their conservation status is unknown. We conducted a chimpanzee census in 2001–2002 in the Haut Niger National Park (HNNP), the largest protected area in the country. We counted nests along a total of 103.83 km of transects in the Mafou forest, 1 of the 2 core areas of the park. We recorded a total of 823 nests, of which 38.1% were located in gallery forests, although this habitat type covers only 4.2% of the study site. Using a site-specific mean nest decay rate of 194 days, we estimated the mean density of chimpanzees in the study area at 0.87 weaned individuals/km2, the highest density recorded in any West African protected area. A survey conducted in 2008–2009 by other authors in the Mafou forest suggests that the chimpanzee population remained stable over the last 6 yr. Given the significance of the chimpanzee population of the HNNP at the national and international levels, we provide recommendations for its conservation over the long term. Our results highlight the importance of gallery forests as key habitat for chimpanzees in the savannah biome. We therefore recommend that more attention be paid to the conservation of this habitat in land management and conservation planning schemes. In particular, we recommend setting aside gallery forests as ecological corridors between nearby protected areas to maintain exchange between distant chimpanzee populations.