Guidelines for the detection of high-risk lipoprotein profiles and the treatment of dyslipoproteinemias. Canadian Lipoprotein Conference Ad Hoc Committee on Guidelines for Dyslipoproteinemias.

Elevated plasma levels of cholesterol and triglycerides, low levels of high-density lipoproteins, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, smoking and abdominal obesity are risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. Because of the preventable threat to life, well-being and productivity from perturbations of plasma lipoproteins (which affect about 60% of adults), we recommend a population-based strategy with public education on diet, exercise and the hazards of smoking and legislation for better food labelling. This should be combined with the medical guidelines we describe to detect and treat those at highest risk for CHD (including about 15% of adults), who merit priority for the medical, dietetic and laboratory services required. Among people aged 40 years or more this includes those with plasma total cholesterol levels greater than 7 mmol/L, fasting triglyceride levels greater than 3 mmol/L or cholesterol level greater than 6 mmol/L when associated with CHD or other risk factors for CHD. For younger people the criteria for highest risk include cholesterol levels greater than 6.5 mmol/L for those aged 30 to 39 years, greater than 6 mmol/L for those aged 20 to 29 and greater than 5 mmol/L for those under age 20.     

Coronary and cardiovascular risk estimation for primary prevention: validation of a new Sheffield table in the 1995 Scottish health survey population

ObjectiveTo examine the accuracy of a new version of the Sheffield table designed to aid decisions on lipids screening and detect thresholds for risk of coronary heart disease needed to implement current guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.DesignComparison of decisions made on the basis of the table with absolute risk of coronary heart disease or cardiovascular disease calculated by the Framingham risk function. The decisions related to statin treatment when coronary risk is ⩾30% over 10 years; aspirin treatment when the risk is ⩾15% over 10 years; and the treatment of mild hypertension when the cardiovascular risk is ⩾20% over 10 years.SettingThe table is designed for use in general practice.SubjectsRandom sample of 1000 people aged 35-64 years from the 1995 Scottish health survey.Results13% of people had a coronary risk of ⩾15%, and 2.2% a risk of ⩾30%, over 10 years. 22% had mild hypertension (systolic blood pressure 140-159 mm Hg). The table indicated lipids screening for everyone with a coronary risk of ⩾15% over 10 years, for 95% of people with a ratio of total cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol of ⩾8.0, but for <50% with a coronary risk of <5% over 10 years. Sensitivity and specificity were 97% and 95% respectively for a coronary risk of ⩾15% over 10 years; 82% and 99% for a coronary risk of ⩾30% over 10 years; and 88% and 90% for a cardiovascular risk of ⩾20% over 10 years in mild hypertension.ConclusionThe table identifies all high risk people for lipids screening, reduces screening of low risk people by more than half, and ensures that treatments are prescribed appropriately to those at high risk, while avoiding inappropriate treatment of people at low risk.     

Waist circumference action levels in the identification of cardiovascular risk factors: prevalence study in a random sample.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the frequency of cardiovascular risk factors in people categorised by previously defined "action levels" of waist circumference. DESIGN--Prevalence study in a random population sample. SETTING--Netherlands. SUBJECTS--2183 men and 2698 women aged 20-59 years selected at random from the civil registry of Amsterdam and Maastricht. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Waist circumference, waist to hip ratio, body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m2)), total plasma cholesterol concentration, high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration, blood pressure, age, and lifestyle. RESULTS--A waist circumference exceeding 94 cm in men and 80 cm in women correctly identified subjects with body mass index of > or = 25 and waist to hip ratios > or = 0.95 in men and > or = 0.80 in women with a sensitivity and specificity of > or = 96%. Men and women with at least one cardiovascular risk factor (total cholesterol > or = 6.5 mmol/l, high density lipoprotein cholesterol < or = 0.9 mmol/l, systolic blood pressure > or = 160 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure > or = 95 mm Hg) were identified with sensitivities of 57% and 67% and specificities of 72% and 62% respectively. Compared with those with waist measurements below action levels, age and lifestyle adjusted odds ratios for having at least one risk factor were 2.2 (95% confidence interval 1.8 to 2.8) in men with a waist measurement of 94-102 cm and 1.6 (1.3 to 2.1) in women with a waist measurement of 80-88 cm. In men and women with larger waist measurements these age and lifestyle adjusted odds ratios were 4.6 (3.5 to 6.0) and 2.6 (2.0 to 3.2) respectively. CONCLUSIONS--Larger waist circumference identifies people at increased cardiovascular risks.     

Cost effectiveness of incremental programmes for lowering serum cholesterol concentration: is individual intervention worth while?

OBJECTIVE--To evaluate the relative cost effectiveness of various cholesterol lowering programmes. DESIGN--Retrospective analysis. SETTING--Norwegian cholesterol lowering programme in Norwegian male population aged 40-49 (n = 200,000), whose interventions comprise a population based promotion of healthier eating habits, dietary treatment (subjects with serum cholesterol concentration 6.0-7.9 mmol/l), and dietary and drug treatment combined (serum cholesterol concentration greater than or equal to 8.0 mmol/l). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Marginal cost effectiveness ratios--that is, the ratio of net treatment costs (cost of treatment minus savings in treatment costs for coronary heart disease) to life years gained and to quality of life years (QALYs) saved. RESULTS--The cost per life year gained over 20 years of a population based strategy was projected to be 12 pounds. For an individual strategy based on dietary treatment the cost was about 12,400 pounds per life year gained and 111,600 pounds if drugs were added for 50% of the subjects with serum cholesterol concentrations greater than or equal to 8.0 mmol/l. CONCLUSIONS--The results underline the importance of marginal cost effectiveness analyses for incremental programmes of health care. The calculations of QALYs, though speculative, indicate that individual intervention should be implemented cautiously and within more selected groups than currently recommended. Drugs should be reserved for subjects with genetic hypercholesterolaemia or who are otherwise at very high risk of arteriosclerotic disease.     

Debate: at what level of coronary heart disease risk should a statin be prescribed?

3-Hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase inhibitors (statins) are effective treatments for the primary and secondary prevention of coronary heart disease, but an outstanding issue is determining who should have such treatment. The benefit from treatment with statins appears to be proportional to the underlying risk of coronary heart disease and independent of the factors increasing risk. Most benefit will therefore be achieved by treating people at increased risk of coronary heart disease. Statins reduce coronary morbidity even when the risk of coronary heart disease is relatively low (6% over 10 years), but reduction in all-cause mortality, the true measure of safety has been shown only when the risk of a major coronary heart disease event is 15% over 10 years or greater. At this level of risk patients appear willing to take treatment to gain the benefit expected from statin treatment, and the cost effectiveness of statin treatment is within the range accepted for other treatments. The major impediments to the systematic introduction of statin treatment at this level of risk are the very high overall cost and the large workload in countries like Britain, where the population risk of coronary heart disease is high. For this reason, recent British guidelines correctly advise statin treatment for secondary prevention and primary prevention when the 10 year coronary heart disease risk is 30% or greater as the first priority, moving to a lower coronary heart disease threshold for primary prevention only when resources permit.     

Lipid screening: is it enough to measure total cholesterol concentration?

OBJECTIVES--To determine whether measurement of total cholesterol concentration is sufficient to identify most patients at lipoprotein mediated risk of coronary heart disease without measurement of triglyceride and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol concentrations. DESIGN--Cross sectional screening programme. SETTING--Six general practices in Oxfordshire. PATIENTS--1901 Men and 2068 women aged 25-59. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Cardiovascular risk as assessed by fasting venous plasma concentrations of total cholesterol, triglyceride, and HDL cholesterol. RESULTS--2931 Patients (74% of those screened) had a total cholesterol concentration of less than 6.5 mmol/l. If the triglyceride concentration had not been measured in these patients isolated hypertriglyceridaemia (greater than or equal to 2.3 mmol/l) would have remained undetected in 185. Among these 185 patients, however, 123 were overweight or obese and only 18 (0.6% of those screened) had an increased risk associated with both a raised triglyceride concentration (greater than or equal to 2.3 mmol/l) and a low HDL cholesterol concentration (less than 0.9 mmol/l). Conversely, in the 790 patients with predominant hypercholesterolaemia (cholesterol concentration greater than or equal to 6.5 mmol/l and triglyceride concentration less than 2.3 mmol/l) measurement of HDL cholesterol concentration showed that 348 (9% of those screened) had only a moderately increased risk with a ratio of total to HDL cholesterol of less than 4.5 and 104 had a low risk with a ratio of less than 3.5. CONCLUSIONS--Fasting triglyceride and HDL cholesterol concentrations identify few patients at increased risk of coronary heart disease if the total cholesterol concentration is less than 6.5 mmol/l. HDL cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations should, however, be measured in patients with a total cholesterol concentration exceeding this value. Total cholesterol concentration alone may overestimate risk in a considerable number of these patients, and measurement of HDL cholesterol concentration allows a more precise estimate of risk. Measurement of the triglyceride concentration is required to characterise the lipoprotein abnormality. A patient should not be started on a drug that lowers lipid concentrations without having had a full lipoprotein assessment including measurement of HDL cholesterol concentration.     

Prevention of progression of coronary atherosclerosis by treatment of hyperlipidaemia: a seven year prospective angiographic study.

The progression of coronary atherosclerosis was assessed by repeat angiography in 28 patients and 20 controls with hyperlipidaemia (serum cholesterol concentration greater than 7.2 mmol/l (278 mg/100 ml) or serum triglyceride concentration greater than 2.0 mmol/l (177 mg/100 ml), or both) and symptomatic coronary artery disease of two or three vessels. Twenty eight patients (26 men and two women) were treated with diet and drugs (clofibrate or nicotinic acid, or both) to lower lipid concentrations. Twenty men taking part in a simultaneous study served as non-randomised controls. They received medical treatment for coronary artery disease but no treatment to reduce lipid concentrations. The initial levels of coronary risk factors and the angiographic state were comparable in the two groups. In the 28 patients total cholesterol, total triglyceride, and low density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations were reduced by an average 18%, 38%, and 19% respectively by treatment for hyperlipidaemia and high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration was increased on average by 10%. The treatment maintained these concentrations during a follow up of seven years. By all criteria coronary lesions progressed significantly less in the patients than the controls: the angiographic state remained completely unchanged in nine (32%) of the patients compared with only one (8%) of the surviving controls; of the arterial segments at risk, 46 (16.5%) progressed in the patients compared with 50 (38.2%) in the controls (p less than 0.001); and the coronary obstruction increased less in patients than in controls (p less than 0.05). Cardiac survival was 89% in seven years in the patients compared with 65% in five years in the controls (p less than 0.01). The anginal symptoms diminished or remained stable in 16 of the 24 patients who survived until the end of the study. The progression of coronary atheromatosis was significantly greater in those patients who during the seven years of treatment had an average total cholesterol concentration, VLDL plus LDL cholesterol concentration, or ratio of LDL to HDL cholesterol concentration above the respective median value than in those with the corresponding values below median. On the other hand, the patients with HDL cholesterol concentrations above the median during treatment showed less progression than those with lower HDL cholesterol concentrations. The increase in coronary obstruction was inversely related to the average HDL cholesterol concentration during treatment. The progression was not, however, related to LDL cholesterol concentration during treatment.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Predicting cardiovascular risk in England and Wales: prospective derivation and validation of QRISK2

Objective To develop and validate version two of the QRISK cardiovascular disease risk algorithm (QRISK2) to provide accurate estimates of cardiovascular risk in patients from different ethnic groups in England and Wales and to compare its performance with the modified version of Framingham score recommended by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE).Design Prospective open cohort study with routinely collected data from general practice, 1 January 1993 to 31 March 2008.Setting 531 practices in England and Wales contributing to the national QRESEARCH database.Participants 2.3 million patients aged 35-74 (over 16 million person years) with 140 000 cardiovascular events. Overall population (derivation and validation cohorts) comprised 2.22 million people who were white or whose ethnic group was not recorded, 22 013 south Asian, 11 595 black African, 10 402 black Caribbean, and 19 792 from Chinese or other Asian or other ethnic groups.Main outcome measures First (incident) diagnosis of cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease, stroke, and transient ischaemic attack) recorded in general practice records or linked Office for National Statistics death certificates. Risk factors included self assigned ethnicity, age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, ratio of total serum cholesterol:high density lipoprotein cholesterol, body mass index, family history of coronary heart disease in first degree relative under 60 years, Townsend deprivation score, treated hypertension, type 2 diabetes, renal disease, atrial fibrillation, and rheumatoid arthritis.Results The validation statistics indicated that QRISK2 had improved discrimination and calibration compared with the modified Framingham score. The QRISK2 algorithm explained 43% of the variation in women and 38% in men compared with 39% and 35%, respectively, by the modified Framingham score. Of the 112 156 patients classified as high risk (that is, ≥20% risk over 10 years) by the modified Framingham score, 46 094 (41.1%) would be reclassified at low risk with QRISK2. The 10 year observed risk among these reclassified patients was 16.6% (95% confidence interval 16.1% to 17.0%)—that is, below the 20% treatment threshold. Of the 78 024 patients classified at high risk on QRISK2, 11 962 (15.3%) would be reclassified at low risk by the modified Framingham score. The 10 year observed risk among these patients was 23.3% (22.2% to 24.4%)—that is, above the 20% threshold. In the validation cohort, the annual incidence rate of cardiovascular events among those with a QRISK2 score of ≥20% was 30.6 per 1000 person years (29.8 to 31.5) for women and 32.5 per 1000 person years (31.9 to 33.1) for men. The corresponding figures for the modified Framingham equation were 25.7 per 1000 person years (25.0 to 26.3) for women and 26.4 (26.0 to 26.8) for men). At the 20% threshold, the population identified by QRISK2 was at higher risk of a CV event than the population identified by the Framingham score.Conclusions Incorporating ethnicity, deprivation, and other clinical conditions into the QRISK2 algorithm for risk of cardiovascular disease improves the accuracy of identification of those at high risk in a nationally representative population. At the 20% threshold, QRISK2 is likely to be a more efficient and equitable tool for treatment decisions for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease. As the validation was performed in a similar population to the population from which the algorithm was derived, it potentially has a “home advantage.” Further validation in other populations is therefore advised.     

Total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol in the serum and risk of mortality: evidence of a threshold effect.

The association of serum total and high density lipoprotein cholesterol values with 15 year mortality was examined in a cohort of 10 059 Israeli male civil servants and municipal employees aged 40 and above. In 618 of 1664 deaths in the cohort (37%) coronary heart disease was documented as the cause of death. Risk of mortality was analysed by quintiles. Neither total mortality nor coronary heart disease mortality rose with serum cholesterol concentrations up to 5.6 mmol/1 (216 mg/100 ml), representing 60% of the sample. Rates rose appreciably only in the highest quintile (cholesterol concentration greater than 6.2 mmol/1; greater than 241 mg/100 ml). High density lipoprotein cholesterol was similarly, although inversely, associated with total mortality when expressed as a percentage of total cholesterol. The inverse association of high density lipoprotein cholesterol with coronary heart disease mortality was, in contrast, continuous. These data support the hypothesis that over most of the range of cholesterol values coronary mortality risk and total mortality risk are nearly independent of total cholesterol and most probably independent of low density lipoprotein cholesterol values. In multivariate analysis a low concentration of high density lipoprotein cholesterol appeared to be more predictive of mortality than a high concentration of total cholesterol. The latter was very weakly related to mortality from all causes after multivariate adjustment. It is concluded that the findings of this and other major epidemiological studies support the notion of a "threshold effect." Success in reducing mortality through the pharmacological reduction of serum cholesterol in hypercholesterolaemic patients does not warrant a similar approach in people with average or slightly above average values. These findings appear to provide support for a "high risk strategy" in reducing the risk of coronary heart disease.     

Waist Circumference as a Screening Tool for Cardiovascular Risk Factors: Evaluation of Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC)

To evaluate the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) to determine the cutoffs of waist circumference as a potential population directed screening tool for hypercholesterolaemia (≥6.5 mmol/L), low high density lipoprotein cholesterol (<0.9 mmol/L), and hypertension (treated and/or systolic ≥160 and/or diastolic blood pressure ≥95 mmHg), in 2183 men and 2698 women aged 20 to 59 years selected at random from Dutch civil registries. Main outcome measures: Height, weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, total plasma cholesterol and high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations, and blood pressure. Results: ROC curves showed that sensitivity equalled specificity at waist circumferences between 93–95 cm in men and 81–84 cm in women for identifying individual risk factors, and 92 cm in men and 81 cm in women for identifying those with at least one risk factor. Sensitivity and specificity were equal at levels between 61% to 69% for identifying individual risk factors, with positive predictions (56.8% in men and 37.8% in women) within 2% of those using previously defined ‘Action Level 1’ of waist circumference 94 cm in men and 80 cm in women (58.8% in men and 37.4% in women). Risk prediction by anthropometric methods was relatively low: ROC areas for identifying each risk factor by waist varied from 55% to 60%, and reached about 65% for identifying at least one risk factor. Height accounted for less than 03% of variance in waist circumference. Using BMI at 25 kg/m² gave similar prediction to waist, but its combination with waist did not improve predictive values. Conclusions: Measurement of waist circumference ‘Action Level 1’ at 94 cm (37 inches) in men and 80 cm (32 inches) in women could be adopted as a simpler valid alternative to BMI for health promotion, to alert those at risk of cardiovascular disease, and as a guide to risk avoidance by self-weight management     

Total cholesterol,low density lipoprotein cholesterol,and high density lipoprotein cholesterol and coronary heart disease in Scotland.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate long term changes in total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and low density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations and in measures of other risk factors for coronary heart disease and to assess their importance for the development of coronary heart disease in Scottish men. DESIGN--Longitudinal study entailing follow up in 1988-9 of men investigated during a study in 1976. SETTING--Edinburgh, Scotland. SUBJECTS--107 men from Edinburgh who had taken part in a comparative study of risk factors for heart disease with Swedish men in 1976 when aged 40. INTERVENTION--The men were invited to attend a follow up clinic in 1988-9 for measurement of cholesterol concentrations and other risk factor measurements. Eighty three attended and 24 refused to or could not attend. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Changes in total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and low density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations, body weight, weight to height index, prevalence of smoking, and alcohol intake; number of coronary artery disease events. RESULTS--Mean serum total cholesterol concentration increased over the 12 years mainly due to an increase in the low density lipoprotein cholesterol fraction (from 3.53 (SD 0.09) to 4.56 (0.11) mmol/l) despite a reduction in high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration. Body weight and weight to height index increased. Fewer men smoked more than 15 cigarettes/day in 1988-9 than in 1976. Blood pressure remained stable and fasting triglyceride concentrations did not change. The frequency of corneal arcus doubled. Alcohol consumption decreased significantly. Eleven men developed clinical coronary heart disease. High low density lipoprotein and low high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations in 1976, but not total cholesterol concentration, significantly predicted coronary heart disease (p = 0.05). Almost all of the men who developed coronary heart disease were smokers (91% v 53%, p less than 0.05). CONCLUSION--Over 12 years the lipid profile deteriorated significantly in this healthy cohort of young men. Smoking, a low high density lipoprotein concentration and a raised low density lipoprotein concentration were all associated with coronary heart disease in middle aged Scottish men, whereas there was no association for total cholesterol concentration. The findings have implications for screening programmes.     

How well can we predict coronary heart disease? Findings in the United Kingdom Heart Disease Prevention Project.

The probability of myocardial infarction developing over five years in a group of middle aged men was predicted with knowledge of their ages, blood pressures, cholesterol concentrations, and smoking habits as recorded in an initial screening examination. Although the top 15% of the risk distribution predicted 115 (32%) of the subsequent cases of myocardial infarction, there was a considerable overlap in predicted risk between those subjects who did and those who did not go on to develop a myocardial infarction. Of the subjects in the top 15% of risk, only 72 (7%) of those initially free of coronary heart disease and 43 (22%) of those initially with coronary heart disease actually developed a myocardial infarction over the subsequent five years. Thus, although a group of subjects at high risk can be identified, among whom will be a high proportion of potential victims of heart attack, many subjects will be wrongly classified. These findings may explain part of the difficulty in persuading patients of the potential benefits of reducing risks and highlight the need for research to improve the prediction of the development of coronary heart disease.     

Identification and treatment of risk factors for coronary heart disease in general practice: a possible screening model

A screening programme for the identification of risk factors for coronary heart disease in all patients aged 25-55 years in a general practice population was studied.The identification of risk factors included measurement of obesity, blood pressure, hypercholesterolaemia, and urinalysis, together with questions about family history, cigarette smoking, alcohol intake, and lifestyle. The patients with identified risk factors were invited to attend a lifestyle intervention clinic organised by the practice nurses and run by the health visitors, with the help of the local authority dietitian. Of 2646 (62%) patients who attended for screening, 78 (64%) of the 121 shown to have a high cholesterol concentration experienced a drop in cholesterol concentration. The mean fall in cholesterol concentration in the 78 patients who showed a positive response to intervention was 1·1 mmol/l.The study was intended as a possible flexible model for screening for coronary heart disease in general practice that could be complemented rather than replaced by opportunistic screening. The issues of organisation, cost, manpower, non-attendance, and effectiveness in a busy general practice environment are discussed.     

Changes in risk factors explain changes in mortality from ischaemic heart disease in Finland.

OBJECTIVES--To estimate the extent to which changes in the main coronary risk factors (serum cholesterol concentration, blood pressure, and smoking) explain the decline in mortality from ischaemic heart disease and to evaluate the relative importance of change in each of these risk factors. DESIGN--Predicted changes in ischaemic heart disease mortality were calculated by a logistic regression model using the risk factor levels assessed by cross sectional population surveys, in 1972, 1977, 1982, 1987, and 1992. These predicted changes were compared with observed changes in mortality statistics. SETTING--North Karelia and Kuopio provinces, Finland. SUBJECTS--14,257 men and 14,786 women aged 30-59 randomly selected from the national population register. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Levels of the risk factors and predicted and observed changes in mortality from ischaemic heart disease. RESULTS--The observed changes in the risk factors in the population from 1972 to 1992 predicted a decline in mortality from ischaemic heart disease of 44% (95% confidence interval 37% to 50%) in men and 49% (37% to 59%) in women. The observed decline was 55% (51% to 58%) and 68% (61 to 74) respectively. CONCLUSION--An assessment of the data on the risk factors for ischaemic heart disease and mortality suggests that most of the decline in mortality from ischaemic heart disease can be explained by changes in the three main coronary risk factors.     

Risk of Major Cardiovascular Events in People with Down Syndrome

Background

Improved medical care over more than five decades has markedly increased life expectancy, from 12 years to approximately 60 years, in people with Down syndrome (DS). With increased survival into late adulthood, there is now a greater need for the medical care of people with DS to prevent and treat aging-related disorders. In the wider population, acquired cardiovascular diseases such as stroke and coronary heart disease are common with increasing age, but the risks of these diseases in people with DS are unknown. There are no population-level data on the incidence of acquired major cerebrovascular and coronary diseases in DS, and no data examining how cardiovascular comorbidities or risk factors in DS might impact on cardiovascular event incidence. Such data would be also valuable to inform health care planning for people with DS. Our objective was therefore to conduct a population-level matched cohort study to quantify the risk of incident major cardiovascular events in DS.

Methods and Findings

A population-level matched cohort study compared the risk of incident cardiovascular events between hospitalized patients with and without DS, adjusting for sex, and vascular risk factors. The sample was derived from hospitalization data within the Australian state of Victoria from 1993–2010. For each DS admission, 4 exact age-matched non-DS admissions were randomly selected from all hospitalizations within a week of the relevant DS admission to form the comparison cohort. There were 4,081 people with DS and 16,324 without DS, with a total of 212,539 person-years of observation. Compared to the group without DS, there was a higher prevalence in the DS group of congenital heart disease, cardiac arrhythmia, dementia, pulmonary hypertension, diabetes and sleep apnea, and a lower prevalence of ever-smoking. DS was associated with a greater risk of incident cerebrovascular events (Risk Ratio, RR 2.70, 95% CI 2.08, 3.53) especially among females (RR 3.31, 95% CI 2.21, 4.94) and patients aged ≤50 years old. The association of DS with ischemic strokes was substantially attenuated on adjustment for cardioembolic risk (RR 1.93, 95% CI 1.04, 3.20), but unaffected by adjustment for atherosclerotic risk. DS was associated with a 40–70% reduced risk of any coronary event in males (RR 0.58, 95% CI 0.40, 0.84) but not in females (RR 1.14, 95% CI 0.73, 1.77).

Conclusions

DS is associated with a high risk of stroke, expressed across all ages. Ischemic stroke risk in DS appears mostly driven by cardioembolic risk. The greater risk of hemorrhagic stroke and lower risk of coronary events (in males) in DS remain unexplained.     

Coffee consumption and death from coronary heart disease in middle aged Norwegian men and women.

OBJECTIVE--To study the association between number of cups of coffee consumed per day and coronary death when taking other major coronary risk factors into account. DESIGN--Men and women attending screening and followed up for a mean of 6.4 years. SETTING--Cardiovascular survey performed by ambulatory teams from the National Health Screening Service in Norway. PARTICIPANTS--All middle aged people in three counties: 19,398 men and 19,166 women aged 35-54 years who reported neither cardiovascular disease or diabetes nor symptoms of angina pectoris or intermittent claudication. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Predictive value of number of cups of coffee consumed per day. RESULTS--At initial screening total serum cholesterol concentration, high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration, blood pressure, height, and weight were measured and self reported information about smoking history, physical activity, and coffee drinking habits was recorded. Altogether 168 men and 16 women died of coronary heart disease during follow up. Mean cholesterol concentrations for men and women were almost identical and increased from the lowest to highest coffee consumption group (13.1% and 10.9% respectively). With the proportional hazards model and adjustment for age, total serum and high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations, systolic blood pressure, and number of cigarettes per day the coefficient for coffee corresponded to a relative risk between nine or more cups of coffee and less than one cup of 2.2 (95% confidence interval 1.1 to 4.5) for men and 5.1 (0.4 to 60.3) for women. For men the relative risk varied among the three counties. CONCLUSIONS--Coffee may affect mortality from coronary heart disease over and above its effect in raising cholesterol concentrations.     

Improvement in Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Risk over Conventional Risk Factors Using SNPs Identified in Genome-Wide Association Studies

Objective

We examined whether a panel of SNPs, systematically selected from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), could improve risk prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD), over-and-above conventional risk factors. These SNPs have already demonstrated reproducible associations with CHD; here we examined their use in long-term risk prediction.

Study Design and Setting

SNPs identified from meta-analyses of GWAS of CHD were tested in 840 men and women aged 55–75 from the Edinburgh Artery Study, a prospective, population-based study with 15 years of follow-up. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the addition of SNPs to conventional risk factors in prediction of CHD risk. CHD was classified as myocardial infarction (MI), coronary intervention (angioplasty, or coronary artery bypass surgery), angina and/or unspecified ischaemic heart disease as a cause of death; additional analyses were limited to MI or coronary intervention. Model performance was assessed by changes in discrimination and net reclassification improvement (NRI).

Results

There were significant improvements with addition of 27 SNPs to conventional risk factors for prediction of CHD (NRI of 54%, P<0.001; C-index 0.671 to 0.740, P = 0.001), as well as MI or coronary intervention, (NRI of 44%, P<0.001; C-index 0.717 to 0.750, P = 0.256). ROC curves showed that addition of SNPs better improved discrimination when the sensitivity of conventional risk factors was low for prediction of MI or coronary intervention.

Conclusion

There was significant improvement in risk prediction of CHD over 15 years when SNPs identified from GWAS were added to conventional risk factors. This effect may be particularly useful for identifying individuals with a low prognostic index who are in fact at increased risk of disease than indicated by conventional risk factors alone.     

Obesity and its relation to cardiovascular disease risk factors in Canadian adults. Canadian Heart Health Surveys Research Group.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the distribution of weight and abdominal obesity among Canadian adults and to determine the association of obesity with other risk factors for cardiovascular disease. DESIGN: Population-based cross-sectional surveys. Survey nurses administered a standard questionnaire and recorded two blood pressure measurements during a home visit. At a subsequent visit to a survey clinic two further blood pressure readings were made, anthropometric measurements recorded and a blood specimen taken for plasma lipid determination. SETTING: Nine Canadian provinces, from 1986 to 1990. PARTICIPANTS: A probability sample of 26,293 men and women aged 18 to 74 years was selected from the health insurance registration files of each province. Anthropometry was performed on 17,858 subjects. OUTCOME MEASURES: Body mass index (BMI), ratio of waist to hip circumference (WHR), mean plasma lipid levels, prevalence of high blood pressure (diastolic greater than or equal to 90 mm Hg or patient on treatment) and self-reported diabetes mellitus. MAIN RESULTS: The prevalence of obesity (BMI greater than or equal to 27) increased with age and was greater in men (35%) than in women (27%). Abdominal obesity was likewise higher in men and increased with both age and BMI. The prevalence of high blood pressure was greater in those with higher BMI, especially in those with a high WHR. Although total plasma cholesterol levels increased only modestly with BMI, levels of low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol and triglycerides and the ratio of total cholesterol to high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol increased steadily, while HDL-cholesterol decreased consistently with increasing BMI. High total cholesterol levels (greater than or equal to 5.2 mmol/L) were more prevalent among people with high BMI, especially those with a high WHR. The prevalence of diabetes increased with BMI among those 35 years or older, especially those with abdominal obesity. About half of men and two-thirds of women who were obese were trying to lose weight. CONCLUSION: Obesity remains common among Canadian adults. There is a need for broad-based programs that facilitate healthy eating and activity patterns for all age groups. Health professionals should incorporate measurement of BMI and WHR into their routine examinations of patients to enhance their evaluation of health risk.