Habitat‐driven life history variation in an amphibian metapopulation

Life‐history theory states that, during the lifetime of an individual, resources are allocated to either somatic maintenance or reproduction. Resource allocation tradeoffs determine the evolution and ecology of life‐history strategies and determine an organisms’ position along the fast–slow continuum. Theory predicts that environmental stochasticity is an important driver of resource allocation and therefore life‐history evolution. Highly stochastic environments are expected to increase uncertainty in reproductive success and select for iteroparity and a slowing down of the life history. To date, most empirical studies have used comparisons among species to examine these theoretical predictions. By contrast, few have investigated how environmental stochasticity affects life‐history strategies at the intraspecific level. In this study, we examined how variation in breeding site stochasticity (among‐year variability in pond volume and hydroperiod) promotes the co‐occurrence of different life‐history strategies in a spatially structured population, and determines life‐history position along the fast–slow continuum in the yellow‐bellied toad Bombina variegata. We collected mark–recapture data from a metapopulation and used multievent capture–recapture models to estimate survival, recruitment and breeding probabilities. We found higher survival and longer lifespans in populations inhabiting variable sites compared to those breeding in stable ones. In addition, probabilities of recruitment and skipping a breeding event were higher in variable sites. The temporal variance of survival and recruitment probabilities, as well as the probability to skip breeding, was higher in variable sites. Taken together, these findings indicate that populations breeding in variable sites experienced a slowing down of the life‐history. Our study thus revealed similarities in the macroevolutionary and microevolutionary processes shaping life‐history evolution.     

Assessment of costs of reproduction in a pelagic seabird using multistate mark-recapture models

We used a long‐term population band‐resight survey database, a parallel reproduction database, and multistate mark–recapture analysis to assess the costs of reproduction, a keystone concept of life‐history evolution, in Nazca boobies (Sula granti) from Punta Cevallos, Isla Española, Galápagos, Ecuador. We used eight years of resight and breeding data to compare models that included sex‐ and state‐specific survival probabilities and probabilities of transition between reproductive states using multistate mark–recapture models. Models that included state‐specific effects were compared with models lacking such effects to evaluate costs of reproduction. The top model, optimizing the trade‐off of model simplicity and fit to the data using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), showed evidence of a temporally varying survival cost of reproduction: nonbreeders showed higher annual survival than breeders did in some years. Because increasing investment among breeders showed no negative association with survival and subsequent breeding success, this evidence indicates a cost to both males and females of initiating, but not of continuing, a reproductive attempt. In some cases, breeders reaching the highest reproductive state (fledging an offspring) showed higher survival or subsequent breeding success than did failed breeders, consistent with differences in overall quality that promote both survival and reproduction. Although a male‐biased adult sex ratio was observed in this population of Nazca boobies, models of state‐ and sex‐specific survival and transition probabilities were not supported, indicating that males and females do not incur different costs of reproduction, and that the observed sex ratio bias is not due to sex‐specific adult mortality.     

Using multistate recapture modelling to assess age‐specific bottlenecks in breeding success: a case study in the greater flamingo Phoenicopterus roseus

Bird reproductive performance often increases with age or experience as a result of improved foraging skills, increased reproductive effort, improved coordination between partners, or a selection process. However, it remains unclear whether age and/or experience affect equally the successive steps of the breeding process, from egg laying to incubation and chick rearing. Using data from a long‐term study of the Camargue (southern France) population of the greater flamingo Phoenicopterus roseus, we studied the influence of age on step‐specific breeding performances during a single breeding season. We used, for the first time, multistate recapture models to evaluate the effect of age on breeding attendance (as a surrogate for breeding success) during incubation, early chick rearing and late chick rearing. Our results show a significant positive influence of age on breeding attendance, but only during the incubation period. Older parents had a higher probability than younger ones of completing incubation, whereas after the chick had hatched, the influence of parental age on breeding attendance was no longer significant. Although a high rate of nest desertion by younger flamingos during the middle of the incubation period coincided with a period of heavy rainfall, including rainfall level as a covariate did not improve the fit of the models. We discuss our results in relation to the evolution of life‐history strategies in long‐lived bird species and the influence of environmental instability.     

Patterns of synchrony in natterjack toad breeding activity and reproductive success at local and regional scales

Empirical studies of the spatiotemporal dynamics of populations are required to better understand natural fluctuations in abundance and reproductive success, and to better target conservation and monitoring programmes. In particular, spatial synchrony in amphibian populations remains little studied. We used data from a comprehensive three year study of natterjack toad Bufo calamita populations breeding at 36 ponds to assess whether there was spatial synchrony in the toad breeding activity (start and length of breeding season, total number of egg strings) and reproductive success (premetamorphic survival and production of metamorphs). We defined a novel approach to assess the importance of short‐term synchrony at both local and regional scales. The approach employs similarity indices and quantifies the interaction between the temporal and spatial components of populations using mixed effects models. There was no synchrony in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success at the local scale, suggesting that populations function as individual clusters independent of each other. Regional synchrony was apparent in the commencement and duration of the breeding season and in the number of egg strings laid (indicative of female population size). Regional synchrony in both rainfall and temperature are likely to explain the patterns observed (e.g. Moran effect). There was no evidence supporting regional synchrony in reproductive success, most likely due to spatial variability in the environmental conditions at the breeding ponds, and to differences in local population fitness (e.g. fecundity). The small scale asynchronous dynamics and regional synchronous dynamics in the number of breeding females indicate that it is best to monitor several populations within a subset of regions. Importantly, variations in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success are not synchronous, and it is thus important to consider them both when assessing the conservation status of pond‐breeding amphibians.     

Trade-off between current reproductive effort and delay to next reproduction in the leatherback sea turtle

The trade-off between current and future reproduction plays an important role in demographic analyses. This can be revealed by the relationship between the number of years without reproduction and reproductive investment within a reproductive year. However, estimating both the duration between two successive breeding season and reproductive effort is often limited by variable recapture or resighting effort. Moreover, a supplementary difficulty is raised when nonbreeder individuals are not present sampling breeding grounds, and are therefore unobservable. We used capture–recapture (CR) models to investigate intermittent breeding and reproductive effort to test a putative physiological trade-off in a long-lived species with intermittent breeding, the leatherback sea turtle. We used CR data collected on breeding females on Awa:la-Ya:lima:po beach (French Guiana, South America) from 1995 to 2002. By adding specific constraints in multistate (MS) CR models incorporating several nonobservable states, we modelled the breeding cycle in leatherbacks and then estimated the reproductive effort according to the number of years elapsed since the last nesting season. Using this MS CR framework, the mean survival rate was estimated to 0.91 and the average resighting probability to 0.58 (ranged from 0.30 to 0.99). The breeding cycle was found to be limited to 3 years. These results therefore suggested that animals whose observed breeding intervals are greater than 3 years were most likely animals that escaped detection during their previous nesting season(s). CR data collected in 2001 and 2002 allowed us to compare the individual reproductive effort between females that skipped one breeding season and females that skipped two breeding seasons. These inferences led us to conclude that a trade-off between current and future reproduction exists in leatherbacks nesting in French Guiana, likely linked to the resource provisioning required to invest in reproduction.     

To breed or not to breed: Physiological correlates of reproductive status in a facultatively biennial iguanid

It is unusual for seasonal breeders to frequently skip opportunities for reproduction. We investigated the relationship between physiological state and reproductive decision-making in Galápagos marine iguanas (Amblyrhynchus cristatus), a species in which females typically reproduce biennially, although the proportion of breeding individuals varies significantly across years. Nearly all adult-sized females initiated follicular development prior to the lekking period, but 38% of females resorbed all developing follicles 5-15 days before the start of copulations. Receptive and non-receptive females differed in reproductive hormones during the mate choice period. Testosterone peaked in receptive females immediately prior to copulation, indicating that testosterone or its derivative estradiol likely mediates female receptivity in Galápagos marine iguanas. Non-receptive females showed significant peaks in both testosterone and progesterone during follicular atresia, suggesting that these hormones may be involved in inhibiting vitellogenesis. Two to three weeks prior to the period of reproductive decision-making (and the onset of follicular atresia in non-receptive females) receptive females were in higher body condition, were developing larger follicles, and had lower levels of both baseline and stress-induced corticosterone. Reproduction is extremely costly in this long-lived species, and increases the likelihood of mortality in the year following breeding; females could therefore gain significant benefits from being attuned to indicators of reproductive success. We suggest that corticosterone may modulate reproductive decisions by altering individual sensitivity to both internal and external cues of the likelihood of successful reproduction.     

To breed or not to breed: a seabird's response to extreme climatic events

Intermittent breeding is an important life-history strategy that has rarely been quantified in the wild and for which drivers remain unclear. It may be the result of a trade-off between survival and reproduction, with individuals skipping breeding when breeding conditions are below a certain threshold. Heterogeneity in individual quality can also lead to heterogeneity in intermittent breeding. We modelled survival, recruitment and breeding probability of the red-footed booby (Sula sula), using a 19 year mark–recapture dataset involving more than 11 000 birds. We showed that skipping breeding was more likely in El-Niño years, correlated with an increase in the local sea surface temperature, supporting the hypothesis that it may be partly an adaptive strategy of birds to face the trade-off between survival and reproduction owing to environmental constraints. We also showed that the age-specific probability of first breeding attempt was synchronized among different age-classes and higher in El-Niño years. This result suggested that pre-breeders may benefit from lowered competition with experienced breeders in years of high skipping probabilities.     

Buffering against food availability? The physical environment has little influence on breeding performance of fairy prions (Pachyptila turtur)

The breeding performance of seabirds is constrained by the availability of marine‐based prey, which may be influenced by competition with other seabirds, and environmental conditions. Fairy prion (Pachyptila turtur) populations have declined substantially in New Zealand since the introduction of mammalian predators; remaining small populations provide an opportunity to examine the effect of environmental factors on reproductive success in the absence of competition. Using 11 years of nest monitoring data and eight years of chick measurements we investigated (i) the link between physical environmental factors, breeding success rates and chick fledging size, and (ii) the relationship between chick fledging size and likelihood of natal‐colony recapture. Despite annual variations in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and sea surface temperatures (SST), breeding success and chick fledging weights remained similar throughout the entire period, possibly due to the use of behavioural buffering mechanisms by parents. Fledgling wing lengths differed among years, and were predicted by early winter and early spring values of the SOI and late spring and summer SSTs. In years of high SOI and high SST, fairy prions fledged with longer wings, possibly due to increased availability of the euphausiid Nyctiphanes australis, their main prey. River flows and rainfall were unrelated to breeding success or chick measurements: the influence of freshwater on the marine system at this locality acts at smaller timescales than those studied here. Using the 2004 and 2005 cohorts, there was no link between fledging size and likelihood of recapture, except for the 2005 cohort which had unusually low 6‐year recapture rates, and shorter‐than‐average wing lengths. A combination of low sea temperatures and an El Niño event in 2005 may have led to a reduction in euphausiid availability, ultimately affecting post‐fledging survival.     

Disentangling the effects of environmental conditions on wintering and breeding grounds on age‐specific survival rates in a trans‐Saharan migratory raptor

Migratory species are subject to environmental variability occurring on breeding and wintering grounds. Estimating the relative contribution of environmental factors experienced sequentially during breeding and wintering, and their potential interaction, to the variation of survival is crucial to predict population viability of migratory species. Here we investigated this issue for the Montagu's harrier Circus pygargus, a trans‐Saharan migrant. We analysed capture–recapture data from a 29‐year long monitoring of wing‐tagged offspring and adults at two study sites in France (Rochefort‐RO and Maine‐et‐Loire‐ML). The study period covers a climatic shift occurring in the Sahel with increasing rainfall following a period of droughts (Sahel greening). We found that harriers’ adult survival in RO (between 1988 and 2005) varied over time and was sensitive to the interaction between the amount of rainfall in the Sahel and the annual mean breeding success, two proxies of prey availability. The occurrence of adverse conditions on breeding and wintering grounds in the same year decreased survival from 0.70–0.77 to 0.48 ± 0.05. Juvenile survival in RO was slightly more sensitive to conditions in Europe than in the Sahel. Unexpectedly, lower survival rates were found in years with higher mean breeding success, suggesting compensatory density feedbacks may operate. By contrast, adult survival in ML, monitored between 1999 and 2017, was higher compared to RO (0.76 ± 0.03 versus 0.66 ± 0.02), remained constant and unaffected by any proxy of prey availability. This difference seems consistent with the fact that harriers in ML experienced better and especially less variable environmental conditions during breeding and wintering seasons compared to RO. Overall, we showed that survival of a migratory bird is sensitive to the level of variability in environmental conditions and that adverse conditions on wintering grounds can amplify the negative effects of conditions during the previous breeding season on birds’ survival.     

Laying date,body mass and tick infestation of nestling tropical Roseate Terns Sterna dougallii predict fledging success,first‐year survival and age at first return to the natal colony

Both intrinsic and extrinsic factors recorded at individual nests can predict offspring fitness and survival but few studies have examined these effects in the tropics. We recorded nestling survival, post‐fledging survival and age at first return of Roseate Terns breeding at Aride Island, Seychelles, over a 12‐year period (1998–2009). Nest data recorded at the egg, nestling and fledging stages were collected during six breeding seasons (1998, 2001–2005) and a capture‐mark‐recapture dataset of six cohorts of fledglings was obtained from 2001–2009. Logistic regression models were used to assess the predictive effect of reproductive variables on fledging success, while multistate capture‐mark‐recapture models were used to estimate post‐fledging survival and return–recruitment probabilities to the natal site. Nestling survival probability increased with earliness of laying and was negatively affected by tick infestation during the growth period (0–23 days). Fledging probability was also positively related to chick body condition, whereas other pre‐fledging reproductive parameters such as clutch size and egg size were not influential. A multistate modelling of age‐specific survival and return–recruitment (transition) rates found that first‐year survival differed between cohorts and was also negatively affected by tick infestation. Annual survival stabilized from age 2 onwards at 0.83 ± 0.02. Transition rates were positively related to body condition at fledging, with heavier individuals returning for the first time to the natal colony at a younger age compared with lighter individuals. These results highlight the importance of local conditions encountered by tropical seabirds during the breeding season in shaping demographic parameters.     

Demographic response to environmental variation in breeding,stopover and non-breeding areas in a migratory passerine

Demographic rates of migratory species passing through several areas during their annual cycle may be affected by environmental conditions at each of these areas. Recent studies provide evidence that their impact is not necessarily immediate, but can be delayed. We studied survival, reproductive success and arrival date at the breeding grounds of red-backed shrikes Lanius collurio, a trans-Saharan migrant, in relation to weather and vegetation on the breeding grounds, the stopover sites during migration and in the wintering areas. These environmental factors are used as proxy of the shrike’s food supply. We analysed detailed demographic data of some 4,600 individuals from 25 years with multistate capture–recapture and mixed models. Survival probabilities of juveniles and breeders of both sexes varied in parallel across time, suggesting that all cohorts were sensitive to similar causes of mortality. Reproductive performance increased with temperature and decreased with rainfall on the breeding area. Moreover, it increased with vegetation cover in the Sahelian stopover area used on autumn migration suggesting a carry-over effect. Arrival date was negatively affected by spring temperatures in the breeding area. Hence, demographic rates were affected by environmental factors on the breeding grounds, but also outside and elsewhere. This suggests that the shrike’s population dynamics are driven by environmental factors operating at various scales of space and time. However, only a small amount of the temporal variation in demographic rates is explained by the environmental factors considered, suggesting that additional factors, such as those operating during migration, might be important.     

Effect of abiotic factors on reproduction in the centre and periphery of breeding ranges: a comparative analysis in sympatric harriers

Variables such as weather or other abiotic factors should have a higher influence on demographic rates in border areas than in central areas, given that climatic adaptation might be important in determining range borders. Similarly, for a given area, the relationship between weather and reproduction should be dissimilar for species which are in the centre of their breeding range and those that are near the edge. We tested this hypothesis on two sympatric ground‐nesting raptors, the hen harrier Circus cyaneus and the Montagu's harrier Circus pygargus in Madrid, central Spain, where the hen harrier is at the southern edge of its breeding range in the western Palearctic and the Montagu's harrier is central in its distribution. We examined the reproductive success of both species during an 8‐yr period, and looked at the influence of the most stressful abiotic factors in the study area (between‐year variation in rainfall and within‐year variation in temperature) on reproductive parameters. In the hen harrier, low levels of rainfall during the breeding season had a negative influence on annual fledging success and thus on population fledgling production. The relationship between rainfall and reproduction was probably mediated through food abundance, which in Mediterranean habitat depends directly on rainfall levels. In the Montagu's harrier, no negative effect of dry seasons on productivity was found. Additionally, in the hen harrier, the proportion of eggs that did not hatch in each clutch increased with higher temperatures during the incubation period. No such relationship was found in the Montagu's harrier. We interpret these between‐species differences in terms of differences of breeding range and adaptations to the average conditions existing there. Hen harriers, commonest at northern latitudes, are probably best adapted to the most typical conditions at those latitudes, and have probably not developed thermoregulatory or behavioural mechanisms to cope with drought and high temperatures in Mediterranean habitats, in contrast to Montagu's harrier. Thus hen harrier distribution might be constrained by these variables, due to lower reproductive success or higher reproductive costs. Accordingly, a logistic regression analysis of the presence or absence of both species in 289 random points throughout the western Palearctic showed that the distribution of both species was related to temperature, but the relationship was in opposite directions for the two species: hen harriers had lower probability of breeding in areas with higher temperature (as expected in a species with a more northerly distribution).     

No evidence of inbreeding avoidance despite demonstrated survival costs in a polygynous rodent

Individuals are generally predicted to avoid inbreeding because of detrimental fitness effects. However, several recent studies have shown that limited inbreeding is tolerated by some vertebrate species. Here, we examine the costs and benefits of inbreeding in a largely polygynous rodent, the yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventris). We use a pedigree constructed from 8 years of genetic data to determine the relatedness of all marmots in our study population and examine offspring survival, annual male reproductive success, relatedness between breeding pairs and the effects of group composition on likelihood of male reproduction to assess inbreeding in this species. We found decreased survival in inbred offspring, but equal net reproductive success among males that inbred and those that avoided it. Relatedness between breeding pairs was greater than that expected by chance, indicating that marmots do not appear to avoid breeding with relatives. Further, male marmots do not avoid inbreeding: males mate with equal frequency in groups composed of both related and unrelated females and in groups composed of only female relatives. Our results demonstrate that inbreeding can be tolerated in a polygynous species if the reproductive costs of inbreeding are low and individuals that mate indiscriminately do not suffer decreased reproductive success.     

Individual heterogeneity in fitness in a long‐lived herbivore

Heterogeneity in the intrinsic quality and nutritional condition of individuals affects reproductive success and consequently fitness. Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) are long‐lived, migratory, specialist herbivores. Long migratory pathways and short summer breeding seasons constrain the time and energy available for reproduction, thus magnifying life‐history trade‐offs. These constraints, combined with long lifespans and trade‐offs between current and future reproductive value, provide a model system to examine the role of individual heterogeneity in driving life‐history strategies and individual heterogeneity in fitness. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to examine reproductive trade‐offs, modeling the relationships between within‐year measures of reproductive energy allocation and among‐year demographic rates of individual females breeding on the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, using capture–recapture and reproductive data from 1988 to 2014. We generally found that annual survival tended to be buffered against variation in reproductive investment, while breeding probability varied considerably over the range of clutch size‐laying date combinations. We provide evidence for relationships between breeding probability and clutch size, breeding probability and nest initiation date, and an interaction between clutch size and initiation date. Average lifetime clutch size also had a weak positive relationship with apparent survival probability. Our results support the use of demographic buffering strategies for black brant. These results also indirectly suggest associations among environmental conditions during growth, fitness, and energy allocation, highlighting the effects of early growth conditions on individual heterogeneity, and subsequently, lifetime reproductive investment.     

Effects of Extreme Weather on Reproductive Success in a Temperate-Breeding Songbird

The frequency of extreme meteorological events such as heat waves and rainstorms is predicted to increase with climate change. However, there is still little information about how extreme weather influences reproduction in animals. It may not only affect breeding success but might also alter offspring sex ratio if males and females are differentially sensitive to meteorological conditions during development. We investigated the relationship between meteorological conditions and reproductive success over 6 years in a house sparrow population in central Europe. We found that hatching success increased with the number of extremely hot days (daily maximum >31°C) and decreased with the number of extremely cold days (<16°C) during incubation, although the latter effect held only for clutches with relatively short incubation periods. Fledging success was unrelated to weather variables. However, the frequency of extremely hot days had a negative effect on fledglings’ body mass and tarsus length, although both of these traits were positively related to average temperature. Additionally, fledglings’ body mass increased with the length of period without rainfall before fledging. Male to female ratio among fledglings did not differ from 1:1 and did not vary with weather variables. The magnitude of the effects of extreme meteorological events was usually small, although in some cases comparable to those of ecologically relevant predictors of reproductive success. Our results indicate that meteorological conditions have complex effects on breeding success, as the effects of extreme weather can differ between different aspects of reproduction and also from the effects of overall meteorological conditions.     

Experimental evidence of long‐term reproductive costs in a colonial nesting seabird

Trade‐offs between current and future reproduction are central to the evolution of life histories. Experiments that manipulate brood size provide an effective approach to investigating future costs of current reproduction. Most manipulative studies to date, however, have addressed only the short‐term effects of brood size manipulation. Our goal was to determine whether survival or breeding costs of reproduction in a long‐lived species manifest beyond the subsequent breeding season. To this end, we investigated long‐term survival and breeding effects of a multi‐year reproductive cost experiment conducted on black‐legged kittiwakes Rissa tridactyla, a long‐lived colonial nesting seabird. We used multi‐state capture–recapture modeling to assess hypotheses regarding the role of experimentally reduced breeding effort and other factors, including climate phase and colony size and productivity, on future survival and breeding probabilities during the 16‐yr period following the experiment. We found that forced nest failures had a positive effect on breeding probability over time, but had no effect on long‐term survival. This apparent canalization of survival suggests that adult survival is the most important parameter influencing fitness in this long‐lived species, and that adults should pay reproductive costs in ways that do not compromise this critical life history parameter. When declines in adult survival rate are observed, they may indicate populations of conservation concern.     

Circulating LH levels and the response to exogenous GnRH in the common mole-rat: implications for reproductive regulation in this social, seasonal breeding species

The effects of breeding season and reproductive status on male and female reproduction were investigated in the common mole-rat, Cryptomys hottentotus hottentotus, a cooperatively breeding rodent which exhibits a unique combination of seasonal breeding and a reproductive division of labor. Pituitary function was examined by measuring the luteinizing hormone (LH) responses to single doses of 2 microg exogenous gonadotrophin-releasing hormone (GnRH) and physiological saline in 69 males and 58 females from 35 wild caught colonies. Neither males nor females exhibited any apparent manifestation of season on basal LH concentrations or on pituitary sensitivity to stimulation by exogenous GnRH. The continuance of reproductive function during the nonbreeding period is essential in common mole-rat males and females, as this period coincides with the period of maximal dispersal opportunity in the winter rainfall area they inhabit. Normal circulating levels of reproductive hormones in dispersing animals may aid intersexual recognition, assist pairbond formation, and thus prime animals for independent reproduction. Circulating basal concentrations of LH as well as LH levels measured in response to a single exogenous GnRH challenge were not significantly different between the reproductive and non-reproductive groups of either sex, suggest the absence of a physiologically well-defined suppression of reproduction in subordinate common mole-rats.     

To breed or not to breed: endocrine response to mercury contamination by an Arctic seabird

Mercury, a ubiquitous toxic element, is known to alter expression of sex steroids and to impair reproduction across vertebrates but the mechanisms underlying these effects are not clearly identified. We examined whether contamination by mercury predicts the probability to skip reproduction in black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla) from Svalbard. We also manipulated the endocrine system to investigate the mechanism underlying this relationship. During the pre-laying period, we injected exogenous GnRH (gonadotropin-releasing hormone) to test the ability of the pituitary to release luteinizing hormone (LH, a key hormone for the release of sex steroids and hence breeding) in relation to mercury burden. Birds that skipped reproduction had significantly higher mercury concentration in blood than breeders. Endocrine profiles of these birds also varied based on breeding status (breeders versus non-breeders), mercury contamination and sex. Specifically, in skippers (birds that did not breed), baseline LH decreased with increasing mercury concentration in males, whereas it increased in females. GnRH-induced LH levels increased with increasing mercury concentration in both sexes. These results suggest that mercury contamination may disrupt GnRH input to the pituitary. Thus, high mercury concentration could affect the ability of long-lived birds to modulate their reproductive effort (skipping or breeding) according to ongoing environmental changes in the Arctic, thereby impacting population dynamics.     

Cumulative reproduction and survival costs in female red deer

Successful reproduction in a single breeding event has consistently been shown to reduce condition, fecundity and survival to the following breeding season. Few studies have examined the cumulative costs of frequent reproduction on survival. Here we use a dataset of female red deer ( Cervus elaphus ) from the Isle of Rum, Scotland, to model survival probability within a mark–recapture framework. By including both recent reproduction and long-term cumulative reproductive effort in the models we tested whether knowledge of lifetime reproductive effort improves our estimates of survival probability. We found that the fit of the model was significantly improved with the inclusion of longer-term measures of reproductive history. Heterogeneity in the reproductive performance of individuals influenced the expected survival cost of reproduction, with high cumulative reproductive effort associated with high survival, except with individuals reproducing in their first year where reproduction was associated with a decrease in survival. This work emphasises the need to account for reproductive history when estimating the survival probabilities of animals.     

North Atlantic climate variation influences survival in adult fulmars

There is increasing evidence that large scale climate variation influences reproductive parameters of seabirds, but fewer studies have investigated possible effects on adult survival. Previous work has shown that climate variation reflected by the winter North Atlantic oscillation (WNAO) influences reproductive success in northern fulmars. Here, we use a 34 year long (1962–1995) individual‐based data set to investigate inter‐annual and inter‐individual variation in adult survival in this species. Breeding success in the previous and current seasons, and both the WNAO and one‐year lagged WNAO indexes, were considered as potential sources of inter‐annual variation in survival and recapture probabilities. Sex and an index of body size were considered as potential sources of inter‐individual variation in survival and recapture probabilities. Body size effects were not significant, but males and females differed in both their survival and recapture probabilities. Probability of recapture of females was positively correlated with breeding success in both the current and previous breeding seasons, whereas male recapture probabilities were correlated only with previous breeding success. Male and female survival decreased over the study period, suggesting that there had been a degradation of environmental conditions. This hypothesis was supported by the detection of a negative correlation between survival and the WNAO, which, in turn, showed a positive increase over this period. The negative correlation between female adult survival and WNAO did not result only from the long term behaviour of the two time series, but persisted for higher frequency fluctuations. In contrast, the correlation between male survival and WNAO seemed to result only from the long term behaviour of the two time series. Despite uncertainties over causal mechanisms, these findings add to the body of evidence that large scale climate variation could dramatically affect seabird population dynamics. Furthermore our results suggest that climate variation can differentially influence individuals with distinct phenotypic characteristics.