Modelling contemporary evolution in stickleback

During the past decade, two lines of research have advanced our understanding of micro‐evolution. On the one hand, a number of studies have generated evidence for strong selection on phenotypes ( Kingsolver et al. 2001 ) and the contemporary (sometimes deemed ‘rapid’) evolution of phenotypic traits ( Hendry & Kinnison 1999 ). On the other hand, other studies have sought to identify the genes that underlie ecologically important traits ( Ungerer et al. 2008 ). Over the next decade, micro‐evolutionists might expect considerable progress from the study of contemporary evolution at both the phenotypic and genetic level simultaneously. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Le Rouzic et al. (2011) present a teaser for this approach. They examined contemporary evolution of an adaptive trait with a well‐studied genetic basis, the number of lateral plates, in threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.). A time series of 20 years of change for this trait after introduction into a pond in Norway was compared with a similar time series of 12 years following the invasion of a lake in Alaska. Using a modelling approach, the authors then teased apart selection acting upon the phenotype and selection acting on a major effect gene. In both time series, selection was strong and consistent. The models suggested that selection could act directly on the phenotype, or through the gene’s pleiotropic effects.     

Urbanization drives contemporary evolution in stream fish

Human activities reduce biodiversity but may also drive diversification by modifying selection. Urbanization alters stream hydrology by increasing peak water velocities, which should in turn alter selection on the body morphology of aquatic species. Here, we show how urbanization can generate evolutionary divergence in the body morphology of two species of stream fish, western blacknose dace (Rhinichthys obtusus) and creek chub (Semotilus atromaculatus). We predicted that fish should evolve more streamlined body shapes within urbanized streams. We found that in urban streams, dace consistently exhibited more streamlined bodies while chub consistently showed deeper bodies. Comparing modern creek chub populations with historical museum collections spanning 50 years, we found that creek chub (1) rapidly became deeper bodied in streams that experienced increasing urbanization over time, (2) had already achieved deepened bodies 50 years ago in streams that were then already urban (and showed no additional deepening over time), and (3) remained relatively shallow bodied in streams that stayed rural over time. By raising creek chub from five populations under common conditions in the laboratory, we found that morphological differences largely reflected genetically based differences, not velocity–induced phenotypic plasticity. We suggest that urbanization can drive rapid, adaptive evolutionary responses to disturbance, and that these responses may vary unpredictably in different species.     

Compensating for climate change–induced cue‐environment mismatches: evidence for contemporary evolution of a photoperiodic reaction norm in Colias butterflies

Anthropogenic climate change alters seasonal conditions without altering photoperiod and can thus create a cue‐environment mismatch for organisms that use photoperiod as a cue for seasonal plasticity. We investigated whether evolution of the photoperiodic reaction norm has compensated for this mismatch in Colias eurytheme. This butterfly’s wing melanization has a thermoregulatory function and changes seasonally. In 1971, Hoffmann quantified how larval photoperiod determines adult wing melanization. We recreated his experiment 47 years later using a contemporary population. Comparing our results to his, we found decreased melanization at short photoperiods but no change in melanization at long photoperiods, which is consistent with the greater increase in spring than summer temperatures recorded for this region. Our study shows that evolution can help correct cue‐environment mismatches but not in the same way under all conditions. Studies of contemporary evolution may miss important changes if they focus on only a limited range of conditions.     

A harvest of weeds yields insight into a case of contemporary evolution

When Charles Darwin was exploring the idea of evolution via natural selection, he looked to domesticated species, with the opening chapter of The Origin of Species titled ‘Variation Under Domestication’ (Darwin 1859 ). Domesticated species such as crops are a great example of artificial selection, which Darwin realized was analogous to natural selection. But growing among those carefully selected crop varieties are the unwelcome and unwanted plants we call weeds. Despite the importance of weeds and long‐standing interest in their evolution (Baker 1974 ), we still know little about how agricultural weeds evolve, and we often fail to take evolution into account when attempting to manage them (Neve et al. 2009 ). Agricultural weeds are subjected to the unique conditions of farm fields, such as frequent soil disturbance and the addition of water and nutrients. They are also confronted with aggressive attempts at their removal via herbicides and mechanical means. As such, they are under intense demographic and selective pressure and can potentially rapidly evolve in response. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Kuester and co‐authors make a rare attempt to understand contemporary evolution in an agricultural weed (Kuester et al. 2016 ). They do so using the powerful resurrection approach of comparing ancestors and descendants under common conditions (Franks et al. 2008 ). They sampled multiple populations of the weedy plant Ipomoea purpurea at two points in time. A comparison of these greenhouse‐grown ancestor and descendent populations showed that, over time, populations had lost significant levels of neutral genetic diversity, consistent with genetic bottlenecks. The authors also found a slight increase, on average, of resistance to the herbicide glyphosate, which is the active ingredient in Roundup^®. This work is one of a growing number of studies demonstrating rapid evolution in natural populations (Thompson 2013 ) and also reveals evidence of both selection and drift in populations of an agricultural weed.     

Late Quaternary climate legacies in contemporary plant functional composition

The functional composition of plant communities is commonly thought to be determined by contemporary climate. However, if rates of climate‐driven immigration and/or exclusion of species are slow, then contemporary functional composition may be explained by paleoclimate as well as by contemporary climate. We tested this idea by coupling contemporary maps of plant functional trait composition across North and South America to paleoclimate means and temporal variation in temperature and precipitation from the Last Interglacial (120 ka) to the present. Paleoclimate predictors strongly improved prediction of contemporary functional composition compared to contemporary climate predictors, with a stronger influence of temperature in North America (especially during periods of ice melting) and of precipitation in South America (across all times). Thus, climate from tens of thousands of years ago influences contemporary functional composition via slow assemblage dynamics.     

Rapid contemporary evolution and clonal food web dynamics

Character evolution that affects ecological community interactions often occurs contemporaneously with temporal changes in population size, potentially altering the very nature of those dynamics. Such eco-evolutionary processes may be most readily explored in systems with short generations and simple genetics. Asexual and cyclically parthenogenetic organisms such as microalgae, cladocerans and rotifers, which frequently dominate freshwater plankton communities, meet these requirements. Multiple clonal lines can coexist within each species over extended periods, until either fixation occurs or a sexual phase reshuffles the genetic material. When clones differ in traits affecting interspecific interactions, within-species clonal dynamics can have major effects on the population dynamics. We first consider a simple predator–prey system with two prey genotypes, parametrized with data from a well-studied experimental system, and explore how the extent of differences in defence against predation within the prey population determine dynamic stability versus instability of the system. We then explore how increased potential for evolution affects the community dynamics in a more general community model with multiple predator and multiple prey genotypes. These examples illustrate how microevolutionary ‘details’ that enhance or limit the potential for heritable phenotypic change can have significant effects on contemporaneous community-level dynamics and the persistence and coexistence of species.     

Space-for-time substitutions in climate change ecology and evolution

In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is an urgent challenge. Since we seldom have sufficient long-term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate–biotic relationships are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These ‘space-for-time substitutions’ (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields largely developing methods in isolation. We review how climate-focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of ecology and evolution, each focussed on a different type of biotic variable – population phenotypes, population genotypes, species' distributions, and ecological communities. We then examine the similarities and differences between subfields in terms of methods, limitations and opportunities. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across the four subfields: spatial in situ gradient methods and transplant experiments. We find that SFTS methods share common limitations relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial climate–biotic relationships and (ii) the transferability of these relationships, i.e. whether climate–biotic relationships observed over space are equivalent to those occurring over time. Moreover, despite widespread application of SFTS in climate change research, key assumptions remain largely untested. We highlight opportunities to enhance the robustness of SFTS by addressing key assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between the four subfields.     

Canid hybridization: contemporary evolution in human‐modified landscapes

Contemporary evolution through human‐induced hybridization occurs throughout the taxonomic range. Formerly allopatric species appear especially susceptible to hybridization. Consequently, hybridization is expected to be more common in regions with recent sympatry owing to human activity than in areas of historical range overlap. Coyotes ( Canis latrans) and gray wolves ( C. lupus) are historically sympatric in western North America. Following European settlement gray wolf range contracted, whereas coyote range expanded to include eastern North America. Furthermore, wolves with New World (NW) mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes now extend from Manitoba to Québec in Canada and hybridize with gray wolves and coyotes. Using mtDNA and 12 microsatellite markers, we evaluated levels of wolf‐coyote hybridization in regions where coyotes were present (the Canadian Prairies, n = 109 samples) and absent historically (Québec, n = 154). Wolves with NW mtDNA extended from central Saskatchewan (51°N, 69°W) to northeastern Québec (54°N, 108°W). On the Prairies, 6.3% of coyotes and 9.2% of wolves had genetic profiles suggesting wolf‐coyote hybridization. In contrast, 12.6% of coyotes and 37.4% of wolves in Québec had profiles indicating hybrid origin. Wolves with NW and Old World ( C. lupus) mtDNA appear to form integrated populations in both regions. Our results suggest that hybridization is more frequent in historically allopatric populations. Range shifts, now expected across taxa following climate change and other human influence on the environment, might therefore promote contemporary evolution by hybridization.     

Twelve years of contemporary armor evolution in a threespine stickleback population

Abstract —Loberg Lake, Alaska was colonized by sea-run Gasterosteus aculeatus between 1983 and 1988, after the original stickleback population was exterminated. Annual samples from 1990 to 2001 reveal substantial evolution of lateral plate (armor) phenotypes. The 1990 sample was nearly monomorphic for the complete plate morph, which is monomorphic in local sea-run populations; the low plate morph, which is usually monomorphic in local freshwater populations, was absent. By 2001, the frequency of completes had declined to 11%, and lows had increased to 75%. The partial plate morph and two unusual intermediate plate phenotypes were generally rare, but occurrence of the intermediates was unexpected. These intermediate phenotypes rarely occur in other, presumably older, polymorphic populations. When low morphs first appeared, they averaged 6.8 plates per side, indicating that the ancestral plate number of low morphs is high, and their mean has subsequently declined. Contemporary evolution in this population indicates that threespine stickleback adapt to freshwater habitats within decades after invasion from the ocean, and thus phenotypes in most populations are adapted to current conditions.     

Learning, climate and the evolution of cultural capacity

Patterns of environmental variation influence the utility, and thus evolution, of different learning strategies. I use stochastic, individual-based evolutionary models to assess the relative advantages of 15 different learning strategies (genetic determination, individual learning, vertical social learning, horizontal/oblique social learning, and contingent combinations of these) when competing in variable environments described by 1/f noise. When environmental variation has little effect on fitness, then genetic determinism persists. When environmental variation is large and equal over all time-scales ("white noise") then individual learning is adaptive. Social learning is advantageous in "red noise" environments when variation over long time-scales is large. Climatic variability increases with time-scale, so that short-lived organisms should be able to rely largely on genetic determination. Thermal climates usually are insufficiently red for social learning to be advantageous for species whose fitness is very determined by temperature. In contrast, population trajectories of many species, especially large mammals and aquatic carnivores, are sufficiently red to promote social learning in their predators. The ocean environment is generally redder than that on land. Thus, while individual learning should be adaptive for many longer-lived organisms, social learning will often be found in those dependent on the populations of other species, especially if they are marine. This provides a potential explanation for the evolution of a prevalence of social learning, and culture, in humans and cetaceans.     

A changing climate for grassland research

Here, we review the current genetic approaches for grass improvement and their potential for the enhanced breeding of new varieties appropriate for a sustainable agriculture in a changing global climate. These generally out-breeding, perennial, self-incompatible species present unique challenges and opportunities for genetic analysis. We emphasise their distinctiveness from model species and from the in-breeding, annual cereals. We describe the modern genetic approaches appropriate for their analysis, including association mapping. Sustainability traits discussed here include stress resistance (drought, cold and pathogeneses) and favourable agronomic characters (nutrient use efficiency, carbohydrate content, fatty acid content, winter survival, flowering time and biomass yield). Global warming will predictably affect temperature-sensitive traits such as vernalisation, and these traits are under investigation. Grass biomass utilisation for carbon-neutral energy generation may contribute to reduced atmospheric carbon emissions. Because the wider potential outcomes of climate change are unpredictable, breeders must be reactive to events and have a range of well-characterised germplasm available for new applications.     

Migratory costs and contemporary evolution of reproductive allocation in male chinook salmon

Energetically demanding migrations may impact the resources available for reproductive trait development and activity, and hence favour evolution of new investment strategies for remaining resources. We conducted a large-scale experiment to evaluate the proximate cost of migration on male reproductive investment in chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and contemporary evolution of reproductive allocation. Experimentally induced differences in migratory costs (17 km inland and 17 m elevation vs. 100 km and 430 m) influenced dorsal hump size and upper jaw length, two traits influencing male mating success that are developed during migration. Longer migration also reduced tissue energy reserves available for competition and length of breeding life. Corresponding shifts in the balance between natural and sexual selection appear to have been responsible for heritable population divergence in secondary sexual trait investment, in approximately 26 generations, following colonization of spawning sites with different migratory demands.