北京2003年SARS疫情的数值模拟

在文[1]的基础上,进一步考虑了每天从外地输入北京的SARS病人数和处于传染期的病人在发病后被收治的概率.利用Gauss-Newton最优化方法对相关参数进行了估计,结果表明,初始病人数为3.5人,医院外第一、二阶段的传染率分别为0.5655(1/天)、0.1425(1/天),医院内第一、二阶段的传染率分别为0.0470(1/天)、0.00(1/天),病人发病后八天内被医院收治,期间每天被医院收治的概率从第一天的0.1632严格递减至第八天的0.0776.累计病人数、累计出院与死亡人数之和的模拟值与实际统计值的相对误差都小于1%.     

Molecular Epidemiology of Echoviruses 11 and 13, Based on an Environmental Surveillance Conducted in Toyama Prefecture, 2002-2003

Nineteen echovirus 11 (E11) and 12 E13 isolates were isolated from three rivers in Toyama Prefecture, Japan, during an environmental surveillance conducted from April 2002 to March 2003. The nucleotide sequences of E13 isolates were closely related to those from patients with aseptic meningitis, with less than 1.3% divergence in the VP1 region of the viral capsid gene, and belonged to the same clade responsible for a worldwide outbreak that started in 2000. In contrast, E11 isolates were clustered into three genomic groups and were not closely related to echovirus strains isolated from patients. These results suggest that the combination of both virus isolation from environmental sources and phylogenetic analysis could be complementary assessment approaches to trace prevalent and minor circulating enteroviruses in the human population.     

Congruent epidemic models for unstructured and structured populations: analytical reconstruction of a 2003 SARS outbreak

Both the threat of bioterrorism and the natural emergence of contagious diseases underscore the importance of quantitatively understanding disease transmission in structured human populations. Over the last few years, researchers have advanced the mathematical theory of scale-free networks and used such theoretical advancements in pilot epidemic models. Scale-free contact networks are particularly interesting in the realm of mathematical epidemiology, primarily because these networks may allow meaningfully structured populations to be incorporated in epidemic models at moderate or intermediate levels of complexity. Moreover, a scale-free contact network with node degree correlation is in accord with the well-known preferred mixing concept. The present author describes a semi-empirical and deterministic epidemic modeling approach that (a) focuses on time-varying rates of disease transmission in both unstructured and structured populations and (b) employs probability density functions to characterize disease progression and outbreak controls. Given an epidemic curve for a historical outbreak, this modeling approach calls for Monte Carlo calculations (that define the average new infection rate) and solutions to integro-differential equations (that describe outbreak dynamics in an aggregate population or across all network connectivity classes). Numerical results are obtained for the 2003 SARS outbreak in Taiwan and the dynamical implications of time-varying transmission rates and scale-free contact networks are discussed in some detail.     

Multiple sources and routes of information transmission: Implications for epidemic dynamics

In a recent paper [20], we proposed and analyzed a compartmental ODE-based model describing the dynamics of an infectious disease where the presence of the pathogen also triggers the diffusion of information about the disease. In this paper, we extend this previous work by presenting results based on pairwise and simulation models that are better suited for capturing the population contact structure at a local level. We use the pairwise model to examine the potential of different information generating mechanisms and routes of information transmission to stop disease spread or to minimize the impact of an epidemic. The individual-based simulation is used to better differentiate between the networks of disease and information transmission and to investigate the impact of different basic network topologies and network overlap on epidemic dynamics. The paper concludes with an individual-based semi-analytic calculation of R₀ at the non-trivial disease free equilibrium.     

Spatial dimensions of dengue virus transmission across interepidemic and epidemic periods in Iquitos, Peru (1999-2003)

Background

Knowledge of spatial patterns of dengue virus (DENV) infection is important for understanding transmission dynamics and guiding effective disease prevention strategies. Because movement of infected humans and mosquito vectors plays a role in the spread and persistence of virus, spatial dimensions of transmission can range from small household foci to large community clusters. Current understanding is limited because past analyses emphasized clinically apparent illness and did not account for the potentially large proportion of inapparent infections. In this study we analyzed both clinically apparent and overall infections to determine the extent of clustering among human DENV infections.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted spatial analyses at global and local scales, using acute case and seroconversion data from a prospective longitudinal cohort in Iquitos, Peru, from 1999–2003. Our study began during a period of interepidemic DENV-1 and DENV-2 transmission and transitioned to epidemic DENV-3 transmission. Infection status was determined by seroconversion based on plaque neutralization testing of sequential blood samples taken at approximately six-month intervals, with date of infection assigned as the middate between paired samples. Each year was divided into three distinct seasonal periods of DENV transmission. Spatial heterogeneity was detected in baseline seroprevalence for DENV-1 and DENV-2. Cumulative DENV-3 seroprevalence calculated by trimester from 2001–2003 was spatially similar to preexisting DENV-1 and DENV-2 seroprevalence. Global clustering (case-control Ripley''s K statistic) appeared at radii of ∼200–800 m. Local analyses (Kuldorf spatial scan statistic) identified eight DENV-1 and 15 DENV-3 clusters from 1999–2003. The number of seroconversions per cluster ranged from 3–34 with radii from zero (a single household) to 750 m; 65% of clusters had radii >100 m. No clustering was detected among clinically apparent infections.

Conclusions/Significance

Seroprevalence of previously circulating DENV serotypes can be a predictor of transmission risk for a different invading serotype and, thus, identify targets for strategically placed surveillance and intervention. Seroprevalence of a specific serotype is also important, but does not preclude other contributing factors, such as mosquito density, in determining where transmission of that virus will occur. Regardless of the epidemiological context or virus serotype, human movement appears to be an important factor in defining the spatial dimensions of DENV transmission and, thus, should be considered in the design and evaluation of surveillance and intervention strategies.     

Epidemiology of Cryptosporidium: transmission, detection and identification

There are 10 valid species of Cryptosporidium and perhaps other cryptic species hidden under the umbrella of Cryptosporidium parvum. The oocyst stage is of primary importance for the dispersal, survival, and infectivity of the parasite and is of major importance for detection and identification. Because most oocysts measure 4-6 microm, appear nearly spherical, and have obscure internal structures, there are few or no morphometric features to differentiate species and in vitro cultivation does not provide differential data as for bacteria. Consequently, we rely on a combination of data from three tools: morphometrics, molecular techniques, and host specificity. Of 152 species of mammals reported to be infected with C. parvum or an indistinguishable organism, very few oocysts have ever been examined using more than one of these tools. This paper reviews the valid species of Cryptosporidium, their hosts and morphometrics; the reported hosts for the human pathogen, C. parvum; the mechanisms of transmission; the drinking water, recreational water, and food-borne outbreaks resulting from infection with C. parvum; and the microscopic, immunological, and molecular methods used to detect and identify species and genotypes.     

Analysis of rabies in China: transmission dynamics and control

Human rabies is one of the major public-health problems in China. The number of human rabies cases has increased dramatically in the last 15 years, partially due to the poor understanding of the transmission dynamics of rabies and the lack of effective control measures of the disease. In this article, in order to explore effective control and prevention measures we propose a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of rabies in China. The model consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The model simulations agree with the human rabies data reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health. We estimate that the basic reproduction number for the rabies transmission in China and predict that the number of the human rabies is decreasing but may reach another peak around 2030. We also perform some sensitivity analysis of in terms of the model parameters and compare the effects of culling and immunization of dogs. Our study demonstrates that (i) reducing dog birth rate and increasing dog immunization coverage rate are the most effective methods for controlling rabies in China; and (ii) large scale culling of susceptible dogs can be replaced by immunization of them.     

Epidemiology of insect-transmitted plant viruses: modelling disease dynamics and control interventions

Abstract. Plant viruses are an important constraint to crop production world‐wide. Rarely have plant virologists, vector entomologists and crop specialists worked together in search of sustainable management practices for viral diseases. Historically, modelling approaches have been vector‐based dealing with empirical forecasting systems or simulation of vector population dynamics. More recently, epidemiological models, such as those used in human/animal epidemiology, have been introduced in an attempt to characterize and analyse the population ecology of viral diseases. The theoretical bases for these models and their use in evaluating control strategies in terms of the interactions between host, virus and vector are considered here. Vector activity and behaviour, especially in relation to virus transmission, are important determinants of the rate and extent of epidemic development. The applicability and flexibility of these models are illustrated by reference to specific case studies, including the increasing importance of whitefly‐transmitted viruses. Some outstanding research and methodological issues are considered.     

Modeling the dynamics and control of Schistosoma japonicum transmission on Bohol island, the Philippines

We have investigated a mathematical model for the transmission of Schistosoma japonicum in the infested region of northeastern Bohol island in the Philippines. The development of transmission models is important for planning control strategies. Since S. japonicum has a complicated mode of transmission, the rates of transmission among its hosts cannot be measured directly by field observation. Instead, they have been estimated through model analysis. The model takes into account the seasonal variations and includes a function of control measures. In 1981, a project to eliminate schistosomiasis started on Bohol island. The prevalence decreased dramatically and has kept low level less than 1%. The simulations based on the model predicted that there is little probability of resurgence of an epidemic in the northeastern endemic villages of Bohol island due to the fact that the project has attained a high coverage of selective mass treatment based on stool examination accompanied by a successful snail control operation.     

Epidemiology of Helicobacter pylori: transmission, translocation and extragastric reservoirs.

Although H. pylori infection is endemic and despite more than 10 years of research, the mode and route of transmission remain elusive. This may, in part, be due to the inherent problems of detecting H. pylori noninvasively. The prevalence of infection varies between countries and is closely related to Growth Domestic Product. An age-cohort effect and data from longitudinal studies suggest that the incidence of infection is much higher in children than adults. In developing countries the prevalence of infection is often more than 80% in young adults, in contrast to less than 10% for similar age groups in developed countries. The observations of mosaicism (in the VacA gene) and a panmycytic population structure imply exchange of genetic material either in or outside of the host, which is supported by the increasing recognition of polyclonal infection and suggests that secondary infection occurs after primary acquisition. In addition, in children persistent primary infection may sometimes occur only after previous (repeated) exposure and/or transient colonisation of the gastric mucosa. H. pylori and other gastric Helicobacter spp are always noninvasive, but other human nongastric Helicobacter spp have sometimes been isolated from the systemic circulation in immunocompromised patients. For nonhuman hosts, intestinal Helicobacter spp are thought to translocate more frequently from the colon to the liver. Within the human host, the oral cavity is the principal extragastric reservoir, although case reports suggest that H. pylori may sometimes be found beyond the 2nd part of the duodenum. The hypothesis that H. pylori is a zoonosis or transmitted as coccoid forms by a vector (pets, houseflies) is not supported by recent research showing that H. pylori is entirely unable to support an aerobic or anaerobic metabolism and that coccoid forms are non-viable. H. pylori is primarily acquired in infancy, most probably via the oroorogastric route, from other family members or close contacts encountered after weaning or socialisation. Further studies to support or refute this hypothesis are required.     

Evolutionary analysis of inter-farm transmission dynamics in a highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic

Phylogenetic studies have largely contributed to better understand the emergence, spread and evolution of highly pathogenic avian influenza during epidemics, but sampling of genetic data has never been detailed enough to allow mapping of the spatiotemporal spread of avian influenza viruses during a single epidemic. Here, we present genetic data of H7N7 viruses produced from 72% of the poultry farms infected during the 2003 epidemic in the Netherlands. We use phylogenetic analyses to unravel the pathways of virus transmission between farms and between infected areas. In addition, we investigated the evolutionary processes shaping viral genetic diversity, and assess how they could have affected our phylogenetic analyses. Our results show that the H7N7 virus was characterized by a high level of genetic diversity driven mainly by a high neutral substitution rate, purifying selection and limited positive selection. We also identified potential reassortment in the three genes that we have tested, but they had only a limited effect on the resolution of the inter-farm transmission network. Clonal sequencing analyses performed on six farm samples showed that at least one farm sample presented very complex virus diversity and was probably at the origin of chronological anomalies in the transmission network. However, most virus sequences could be grouped within clearly defined and chronologically sound clusters of infection and some likely transmission events between farms located 0.8-13 Km apart were identified. In addition, three farms were found as most likely source of virus introduction in distantly located new areas. These long distance transmission events were likely facilitated by human-mediated transport, underlining the need for strict enforcement of biosafety measures during outbreaks. This study shows that in-depth genetic analysis of virus outbreaks at multiple scales can provide critical information on virus transmission dynamics and can be used to increase our capacity to efficiently control epidemics.     

Modeling transmission dynamics and control of vector-borne neglected tropical diseases

Neglected tropical diseases affect more than one billion people worldwide. The populations most impacted by such diseases are typically the most resource-limited. Mathematical modeling of disease transmission and cost-effectiveness analyses can play a central role in maximizing the utility of limited resources for neglected tropical diseases. We review the contributions that mathematical modeling has made to optimizing intervention strategies of vector-borne neglected diseases. We propose directions forward in the modeling of these diseases, including integrating new knowledge of vector and pathogen ecology, incorporating evolutionary responses to interventions, and expanding the scope of sensitivity analysis in order to achieve robust results.     

Modeling the transmission dynamics and control of hepatitis B virus in China

Hepatitis B is a potentially life-threatening liver infection caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) and is a major global health problem. HBV is the most common serious viral infection and a leading cause of death in mainland China. Around 130 million people in China are carriers of HBV, almost a third of the people infected with HBV worldwide and about 10% of the general population in the country; among them 30 million are chronically infected. Every year, 300,000 people die from HBV-related diseases in China, accounting for 40-50% of HBV-related deaths worldwide. Despite an effective vaccination program for newborn babies since the 1990s, which has reduced chronic HBV infection in children, the incidence of hepatitis B is still increasing in China. We propose a mathematical model to understand the transmission dynamics and prevalence of HBV infection in China. Based on the data reported by the Ministry of Health of China, the model provides an approximate estimate of the basic reproduction number R₀=2.406. This indicates that hepatitis B is endemic in China and is approaching its equilibrium with the current immunization program and control measures. Although China made a great progress in increasing coverage among infants with hepatitis B vaccine, it has a long and hard battle to fight in order to significantly reduce the incidence and eventually eradicate the virus.