Fine-scale spatial genetic structure in mixed oak stands with different levels of hybridization

Oaks are model species for the study of natural introgressive hybridization. High interfertility among oak taxa might result in collective evolution, through transpecific spread of advantageous alleles, challenging the standard concept of species. Nine highly polymorphic microsatellite (nuSSR) loci were analysed in three mixed oak populations of Quercus pyrenaica and Quercus petraea (Montejo, Somosierra and Robregordo) with different density and hybridization rates. Both leaf morphology and molecular markers were used to assess individual admixture rates. Insights about the relative effect of density and hybridization rates on fine-scale spatial genetic structure (SGS) were obtained from autocorrelograms and Sp statistics. Differences in SGS among populations were higher than between species. These differences cannot be attributed solely to census densities but also relate to other factors, such as the spatial configuration of the population. Hybridization was an important factor shaping within-population spatial genetic structure, and an interspecific component of SGS was found in Somosierra. Indirect estimates of historical gene flow in Montejo were compared with actual values of gene dispersal assessed by parentage analysis in a former study. Similar values were found for current and historical gene flow in both species, which might reflect demographical stability.     

Spatial genetic structure of a small rodent in a heterogeneous landscape

Gene flow in natural populations may be strongly influenced by landscape features. The integration of landscape characteristics in population genetic studies may thus improve our understanding of population functioning. In this study, we investigated the population genetic structure and gene flow pattern for the common vole, Microtus arvalis, in a heterogeneous landscape characterised by strong spatial and temporal variation. The studied area is an intensive agricultural zone of approximately 500 km² crossed by a motorway. We used individual-based Bayesian methods to define the number of population units and their spatial borders without prior delimitation of such units. Unexpectedly, we determined a single genetic unit that covered the entire area studied. In particular, the motorway considered as a likely barrier to dispersal was not associated with any spatial genetic discontinuity. Using computer simulations, we demonstrated that recent anthropogenic barriers to effective dispersal are difficult to detect through analysis of genetic variation for species with large effective population sizes. We observed a slight, but significant, pattern of isolation by distance over the whole study site. Spatial autocorrelation analyses detected genetic structuring on a local scale, most probably due to the social organisation of the study species. Overall, our analysis suggests intense small-scale dispersal associated with a large effective population size. High dispersal rates may be imposed by the strong spatio-temporal heterogeneity of habitat quality, which characterises intensive agroecosystems.     

Reduced genetic variation and strong genetic population structure in the freshwater killifish Valencia letourneuxi (Valenciidae) based on nuclear and mitochondrial markers

The genetic variation of the critically endangered Corfu killifish (Valencia letourneuxi), an endemic freshwater fish species of the western Balkans, was assessed for nine populations sampled in eight water systems in western continental Greece, the Peloponnese and the Ionian Island of Corfu, using mitochondrial and microsatellite markers. The analyses were based on data from three mtDNA regions (D‐loop, COI and 16S rRNA sequences) and 14 microsatellite loci. Samples from the congeneric species Valencia hispanica and the phylogenetically closely related species Aphanius fasciatus were also used in the study as outgroups. Both the mitochondrial and the microsatellite analyses revealed three distinct population groupings associated with the geographical distribution of the populations: one southern group occupying rivers draining to the Patraikos Gulf, the second one including the populations flowing into the Amvrakikos Gulf and the third, more northern group, including the other populations from rivers in Corfu Island and Epirus flowing into the Ionian Sea. Within these groupings there is limited genetic differentiation between populations; in addition, there is reduced intrapopulation genetic variation, evidenced by low heterozygosity values, number of alleles and haplotype diversity. In terms of taxonomic implications and appropriate management actions for conservation, our data suggest that the major population groups should be regarded at least as three distinct conservation units (CUs), with translocation and restocking actions to take place only within the geographical range of the CU concerned. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 111 , 334–349.     

Effects of multiple founder populations on spatial genetic structure of reintroduced American martens

Reintroductions and translocations are increasingly used to repatriate or increase probabilities of persistence for animal and plant species. Genetic and demographic characteristics of founding individuals and suitability of habitat at release sites are commonly believed to affect the success of these conservation programs. Genetic divergence among multiple source populations of American martens (Martes americana) and well documented introduction histories permitted analyses of post‐introduction dispersion from release sites and development of genetic clusters in the Upper Peninsula (UP) of Michigan <50 years following release. Location and size of spatial genetic clusters and measures of individual‐based autocorrelation were inferred using 11 microsatellite loci. We identified three genetic clusters in geographic proximity to original release locations. Estimated distances of effective gene flow based on spatial autocorrelation varied greatly among genetic clusters (30–90 km). Spatial contiguity of genetic clusters has been largely maintained with evidence for admixture primarily in localized regions, suggesting recent contact or locally retarded rates of gene flow. Data provide guidance for future studies of the effects of permeabilities of different land‐cover and land‐use features to dispersal and of other biotic and environmental factors that may contribute to the colonization process and development of spatial genetic associations.     

Population biology of the invasive freshwater snail Physa acuta approached through genetic markers, ecological characterization and demography

Abstract The respective role of factors acting on population functioning can be inferred from a variety of approaches, including population genetics and demography. We here investigated the role of four of these factors (mating systems, population size, bottlenecks and migration) in the hermaphroditic freshwater snail Physa acuta. Twenty-four populations were sampled either around Montpellier (local scale), or at the scale of France (global scale). At local scale, eight populations were sampled twice, before and after summer drying out. The genetic structure of these populations was studied using microsatellite loci. Populations were classified according to openness (ponds vs. rivers) and water regime (permanent vs. temporary) allowing predictions on genetic patterns (e.g. diversity within populations and differentiation). At local scale, progeny-arrays analysis of the selfing rate was conducted, and size distributions of individuals were followed over two years. Results with regard to the four factors mentioned above were: (i) Estimates of population selfing rates derived from inbreeding coefficients were only slightly higher than those from progeny-arrays. (ii) More variation was detected in rivers than in ponds, but no influence of water regime was detected. One reason might be that permanent populations are not going less often through low densities than those from temporary habitats at the time scale studied. (iii) There was limited evidence for genetic bottlenecks which is compatible with the fact that even marked reduction in water availability was not necessarily associated with demographic bottlenecks. More generally, bottlenecks reducing genetic variation probably occur at population foundation. (iv) Lower genetic differentiation was detected among rivers than among ponds which might be related to limitations on gene flow. Demographic and temporal genetic data further indicates that flooding in rivers is unlikely to induce marked gene flow explaining the strong genetic differentiation at short geographical scale in such habitats. Finally, the demographic data suggest that some populations are transitory and subject to recurrent recolonization, a pattern that was also detected through genetic data.     

Evaluation of environmental factors affecting the genetic diversity,genetic structure,and the potential distribution of Rhododendron aureum Georgi under changing climate

Understanding genetic variation and structure, adaptive genetic variation, and its relationship with environmental factors is of great significance to understand how plants adapt to climate change and design effective conservation and management strategies. The objective of this study was to (I) investigate the genetic diversity and structure by AFLP markers in 36 populations of R. aureum from northeast China, (Ⅱ) reveal the relative contribution of geographical and environmental impacts on the distribution and genetic differentiation of R. aureum, (Ⅲ) identify outlier loci under selection and evaluate the association between outlier loci and environmental factors, and (Ⅳ) exactly calculate the development trend of population of R. aureum, as it is confronted with severe climate change and to provide information for designing effective conservation and management strategies. We found high genetic variation (I = 0.584) and differentiation among populations (Φ_ST  = 0.703) and moderate levels of genetic diversity within populations of R. aureum. A significant relationship between genetic distance and environmental distance was identified, which suggested that the differentiation of different populations was caused by environmental factors. Using BayeScan and Dfdist, 42 outlier loci are identified and most of the outlier loci are associated with climate or relief factors, suggesting that these loci are linked to genes that are involved in the adaptability of R. aureum to the environment. Species distribution models (SDMs) showed that climate warming will cause a significant reduction in suitable areas for R. aureum, especially under the RCP 85 scenario. Our results help to understand the potential response of R. aureum to climatic changes and provide new perspectives for R. aureum resource management and conservation strategies.     

Dispersal and population genetic structure of Telmatherina antoniae,an endemic freshwater Sailfin silverside from Sulawesi,Indonesia

Population genetic structure in the presence of substantial dispersal provides a unique perspective on the evolution of reproductive isolation. We sampled Telmatherina antoniae, an endemic fish species, at 10 sites in Lake Matano, Indonesia. Significant genetic structure (F_ST = 0.03) was found, despite a migration rate of 10.2% and a mean dispersal distance of 13.6 km, estimated by genotype assignment. Neither dispersal distance nor direction differed from random expectations, indicative of no dispersal barrier in Lake Matano. However, Bayesian genotype cluster assignment identified a population structure consisting of four to six clusters that did not coincide with sample site distribution, but explained two to three times more genetic variance than sample site. The mechanism for continued isolation of those genetic clusters is unknown, but assortative mating and temporal isolation are obvious candidates. Our results resolve the apparent paradox of population genetic structure coupled with frequent dispersal, and highlight the importance of considering cryptic genetic structure.     

Blacktip reef sharks,Carcharhinus melanopterus,have high genetic structure and varying demographic histories in their Indo‐Pacific range

For free‐swimming marine species like sharks, only population genetics and demographic history analyses can be used to assess population health/status as baseline population numbers are usually unknown. We investigated the population genetics of blacktip reef sharks, Carcharhinus melanopterus; one of the most abundant reef‐associated sharks and the apex predator of many shallow water reefs of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Our sampling includes 4 widely separated locations in the Indo‐Pacific and 11 islands in French Polynesia with different levels of coastal development. Four‐teen microsatellite loci were analysed for samples from all locations and two mitochondrial DNA fragments, the control region and cytochrome b, were examined for 10 locations. For microsatellites, genetic diversity is higher for the locations in the large open systems of the Red Sea and Australia than for the fragmented habitat of the smaller islands of French Polynesia. Strong significant structure was found for distant locations with F_ST values as high as ~0.3, and a smaller but still significant structure is found within French Polynesia. Both mitochondrial genes show only a few mutations across the sequences with a dominant shared haplotype in French Polynesia and New Caledonia suggesting a common lineage different to that of East Australia. Demographic history analyses indicate population expansions in the Red Sea and Australia that may coincide with sea level changes after climatic events. Expansions and flat signals are indicated for French Polynesia as well as a significant recent bottleneck for Moorea, the most human‐impacted lagoon of the locations in French Polynesia.     

Population genetic structure of Arctic charr, Salvelinus alpinus from northwest Europe on large and small spatial scales

To examine the population genetic structure of lake-resident Arctic charr, Salvelinus alpinus from northwest Europe on multiple spatial scales, 2367 individuals from 43 lakes located in three geographical regions (Iceland, the British Isles and Scandinavia) were genotyped at six microsatellite loci. On a large scale, data provided little evidence to support clustering of populations according to geographical region. Hierarchical analysis of molecular variance indicated that, although statistically significant, only 2.17% of the variance in allelic frequencies was partitioned at the among-region level. Within regions, high levels of genetic differentiation were typically found between lakes regardless of the geographical distance separating them. These results are consistent with the hypothesis of rapid postglacial recolonization of all of northwest Europe from a single charr lineage, with subsequent restriction of gene flow. On a smaller scale, there was evidence for close genetic relationships among lakes from within common drainage basins in Scotland. Thus, interlake genetic structure reflects localized patterns of recent (or contemporary) gene flow superimposed onto a larger scale structure that is largely a result of historical processes. There was also evidence for widespread genetic structuring at the within-lake level, with sympatric populations detected in 10 lakes, and multilocus heterozygote deficits found in 23 lakes. This evidence of the Wahlund effect was found in all lakes known to contain discrete phenotypic morphs, as well as many others, suggesting that morphs may often represent separate breeding populations, and also that the phenomenon of polymorphism in this species may be more widespread than is currently realized.     

Complex social organization reflects genetic structure and relatedness in the cooperatively breeding bell miner, Manorina melanophrys

The cooperatively breeding bell miner, Manorina melanophrys, differs from most other cooperative breeding species in the complexity of its social system, where discrete social organization occurs on at least three levels. Microsatellite markers were used to investigate the degree of genetic structure underlying the social organization of M. melanophrys by comparing colonies, coteries and nest contingents. The genetic data confirmed behavioural observations of M. melanophrys living in male kin-based groups between which females disperse short distances to breed. Estimates of FST revealed restricted gene flow between eight colonies located within 30 km that was significantly associated with geographical distance when the two most distant colonies were included. Within a high density colony significant differences were found between coteries; analysis of the degree of relatedness between coterie members showed that this is due to related individuals associating preferentially with each other. Similarly, the contingent of individuals attending a nest were generally close relatives of the young they were aiding, supporting models invoking kin selection as the selective agency mediating helping.     

Analysis of spatial genetic structure in an expanding Pinus halepensis population reveals development of fine-scale genetic clustering over time

We analysed the change of spatial genetic structure (SGS) of reproductive individuals over time in an expanding Pinus halepensis population. To our knowledge, this is the first empirical study to analyse the temporal component of SGS by following the dynamics of successive cohorts of the same population over time, rather than analysing different age cohorts at a single time. SGS is influenced by various factors including restricted gene dispersal, microenvironmental selection, mating patterns and the spatial pattern of reproductive individuals. Several factors that affect SGS are expected to vary over time and as adult density increases. Using air photo analysis, tree-ring dating and molecular marker analysis we reconstructed the spread of reproductive individuals over 30 years beginning from five initial individuals. In the early stages, genotypes were distributed randomly in space. Over time and with increasing density, fine-scale (< 20 m) SGS developed and the magnitude of genetic clustering increased. The SGS was strongly affected by the initial spatial distribution and genetic variation of the founding individuals. The development of SGS may be explained by fine-scale environmental heterogeneity and possibly microenvironmental selection. Inbreeding and variation in reproductive success may have enhanced SGS magnitude over time.     

Population genetic structure and the effect of founder events on the genetic variability of moose, Alces alces, in Canada

Moose, Alces alces, occur naturally throughout most of Canada but successful introductions of known numbers of animals have been made to the islands of Newfoundland and Cape Breton. Five microsatellite loci were used to investigate the population genetic structure and any change in genetic variability due to founder events of moose in Canada. Comparisons of allele frequencies for moose from 11 regions of the country suggested that there are at least seven genetically distinct populations (P < 0.05) in North America, namely Alberta, eastern Ontario, New Brunswick, Cape Breton, Labrador, western Newfoundland, and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland. The average population heterozygosity was approximately 33% (range from 22 to 41%). UPGMA analysis of Nei's genetic distances produced phenograms similar to what would be expected when geographical location and population history are considered. The loss of heterozygosity due to a single founder event (n = 3; two introductions and a natural colonization) ranged from 14 to 30%, and the cumulative loss of heterozygosity due to two successive founder events (an introduction followed by a natural colonization) was 46%. In these examples loss of genetic variability has not been associated with any known phenotypic deviances, suggesting that populations may be established from a small number of founders. However, the viability of these founded populations over evolutionary timescales cannot be determined and is highly dependent upon chance.     

Estimating seed vs. pollen dispersal from spatial genetic structure in the common ash

Spatial genetic structure was analysed with five highly polymorphic microsatellite loci in a Romanian population of common ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.), a wind-pollinated and wind-dispersed tree species occurring in mixed deciduous forests over almost all of Europe. Contributions of seed and pollen dispersal to total gene flow were investigated by analysing the pattern of decrease in kinship coefficients among pairs of individuals with geographical distance and comparing it with simulation results. Plots of kinship against the logarithm of distance were decomposed into a slope and a shape component. Simulations showed that the slope is informative about the global level of gene flow, in agreement with theoretical expectations, whereas the shape component was correlated with the relative importance of seed vs. pollen dispersal. Hence, our results indicate that insights into the relative contributions of seed and pollen dispersal to overall gene flow can be gained from details of the pattern of spatial genetic structure at biparentally inherited loci. In common ash, the slope provided an estimate of total gene dispersal in terms of Wright's neighbourhood size of Nb = 519 individuals. No precise estimate of seed vs. pollen flow could be obtained from the shape because of the stochasticity inherent to the data, but the parameter combinations that best fitted the data indicated restricted seed flow, sigmas pound 14 m, and moderate pollen flow, 70 m pound sigmap pound 140 m.     

Population genetic structure in the Iberian cyprinid fish Iberochondrostoma lemmingii (Steindachner, 1866): disentangling species fragmentation and colonization processes

Interplay between the complex geography, hydrogeomorphological history, past climatic changes, and anthropogenic pressures is likely responsible for the current diversity and species' distribution of freshwater fishes in the Iberian Peninsula. To further disentangle the evolutionary processes promoting the diversification of endemic Iberian Cyprinids through time and space, we explored the patterns of genetic diversity of the Iberian arched‐mouth nase, Iberochondrostoma lemmingii (Steindachner, 1866), using molecular markers rendering at different timescales: the mitochondrial gene cytochrome b and seven microsatellite loci. Both markers showed significant differentiation of populations though the relative genetic distances among populations were different between markers. Mitochondrial DNA results indicate the isolation of hydrographic basins as the main driver of population differentiation, with Tejo as the centre of diversification. The results also support connections between Tejo, Guadiana, and Guadalquivir, with levels of divergence suggesting an earlier severance of Guadalquivir, whereas Guadiana and Tejo maintained connections until a more recent past. Establishment of more peripherial populations in small southern basins (Quarteira and Almargem) could have been ruled by founder events. However, the analysis of present‐day genetic configuration suggested by microsatellite data implies, for the first time, the involvement of other factors in the evolution of arched‐mouth Iberian nase populations. Relative low genetic distances between inter‐basin populations (Tejo and Guadiana) and the lack of concordance between differentiation and geography suggest a possible influence of human‐mediated translocations in the population genetic patterns of I. lemmingii. High intra‐basin differentiation levels were found within Tejo and Guadiana and may be associated with factors intrinsic to the species (e.g. low dispersal capability) or natural and/or artificial barriers to gene flow. The low vagility of the species appears to be an important factor influencing the evolutionary processes shaping the phylogeographical patterns of I. lemmingii, which could be relevant for the conservation of this threatened species. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 105 , 559–572.     

Local genetic structure in a clonal dioecious angiosperm

We used seven microsatellite loci to characterize genetic structure and clonal architecture at three different spatial scales (from meters to centimetres) of a Cymodocea nodosa population. C. nodosa exhibits both sexual reproduction and vegetative propagation by rhizome elongation. Seeds remain buried in the sediment nearby the mother plant in a dormant stage until germination. Seed dispersal potential is therefore expected to be extremely restricted. High clonal diversity (up to 67% of distinct genotypes) and a highly intermingled configuration of genets at different spatial scales were found. No significant differences in genetic structure were found among the three spatial scales, indicating that genetic diversity is evenly distributed along the meadow. Autocorrelation analyses of kinship estimates confirmed the absence of spatial clumping of genets at small spatial scale and the expectations of a very restricted seed dispersal (observed dispersal range 1-21 m) in this species.     

Fine-scale population genetic structure in a fission-fusion society

Nonrandom patterns of mating and dispersal create fine-scale genetic structure in natural populations — especially of social mammals — with important evolutionary and conservation genetic consequences. Such structure is well-characterized for typical mammalian societies; that is, societies where social group composition is stable, dispersal is male-biased, and males form permanent breeding associations in just one or a few social groups over the course of their lives. However, genetic structure is not well understood for social mammals that differ from this pattern, including elephants. In elephant societies, social groups fission and fuse, and males never form permanent breeding associations with female groups. Here, we combine 33 years of behavioural observations with genetic information for 545 African elephants ( Loxodonta africana ), to investigate how mating and dispersal behaviours structure genetic variation between social groups and across age classes. We found that, like most social mammals, female matrilocality in elephants creates co-ancestry within core social groups and significant genetic differentiation between groups (Φ_ST = 0.058). However, unlike typical social mammals, male elephants do not bias reproduction towards a limited subset of social groups, and instead breed randomly across the population. As a result, reproductively dominant males mediate gene flow between core groups, which creates cohorts of similar-aged paternal relatives across the population. Because poaching tends to eliminate the oldest elephants from populations, illegal hunting and poaching are likely to erode fine-scale genetic structure. We discuss our results and their evolutionary and conservation genetic implications in the context of other social mammals.     

Migratory behaviour shapes spatial genetic structure of cyprinid fishes within the Lake Malawi catchment

• Genetic differences among freshwater fish populations are dependent on life‐history characteristics of the species, including the range of adult dispersal and the extent of homing to natal breeding grounds. However, the effects of variation in such characteristics on population genetic connectivity are rarely studied comparatively among closely related species.
• We studied population genetic structure within three congeneric cyprinid species from the Lake Malawi catchment that differ substantially in life‐history traits and conservation status, using a combination of microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA markers. Mpasa (Opsaridium microlepis) is a large (70 cm total length) migratory species that spawns in rivers, but as an adult is exclusively known from the main lake body. Sanjika (Opsaridium microcephalum), is a medium size (30 cm total length) species that exists in lake breeding, river‐lake migratory and apparently landlocked populations. Dwarf sanjika (Opsaridium tweddleorum) is a small non‐migratory species (15 cm total length) that persists in small tributaries surrounding the main lake and adjoining rivers.
• The results revealed striking differences among the three species in spatial genetic structuring. The river‐lake migratory mpasa showed only weak yet significant population genetic structure within the main Lake Malawi catchment, suggesting that there is no strong natal homing. The habitat‐generalist sanjika showed only weak spatial genetic differentiation at microsatellite loci within the Lake Malawi catchment, but moderate structure in mitochondrial DNA, potentially reflecting male‐biased dispersal. The river‐restricted dwarf sanjika showed strong genetic structure in both microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA, suggesting strictly limited dispersal at both adult and juvenile stages.
• We conclude that contrasting migration life histories have resulted in dramatically different patterns of population genetic structure among these congeneric species. The observed patterns demonstrate how divergent life‐history evolution may strongly influence broader patterns of population genetic connectivity in freshwater fish, with consequences for management and conservation. Specifically the results suggesting gene flow among Lake Malawi populations of mpasa, an IUCN red‐listed ‘Endangered’ species endemic to the lake catchment, imply that conservation initiatives operating at both local and catchment scales are needed to reverse local population decline.

     

Genetic effective size,Ne, tracks density in a small freshwater cyprinid,Pecos bluntnose shiner (Notropis simus pecosensis)

Genetic monitoring tracks changes in measures of diversity including allelic richness, heterozygosity and genetic effective size over time, and has emerged as an important tool for understanding evolutionary consequences of population management. One proposed application of genetic monitoring has been to estimate abundance and its trajectory through time. Here, genetic monitoring was conducted across five consecutive year for the Pecos bluntnose shiner, a federally threatened minnow. Temporal changes in allele frequencies at seven microsatellite DNA loci were used to estimate variance effective size (N_eV) across adjacent years in the time series. Likewise, effective size was computed using the linkage disequilibrium method (N_eD) for each sample. Estimates of N_e were then compared to estimates of adult fish density obtained from traditional demographic monitoring. For Pecos bluntnose shiner, density (catch‐per‐unit‐effort), N_eV and N_eD were positively associated across this time series. Results for Pecos bluntnose shiner were compared to a related and ecologically similar species, the Rio Grande silvery minnow. In this species, density and N_eV were negatively associated, which suggested decoupling of abundance and effective size trajectories. Conversely, density and N_eD were positively associated. For Rio Grande silvery minnow, discrepancies among estimates of N_e and their relationships with adult fish density could be related to effects of high variance in reproductive success in the wild and/or effects of supplementation of the wild population with captive‐bred and reared fish. The efficacy of N_e as a predictor of density and abundance may depend on intrinsic population dynamics of the species and how these dynamics are influenced by the landscape features, management protocols and other factors.     

Tackling intraspecific genetic structure in distribution models better reflects species geographical range

Genetic diversity provides insight into heterogeneous demographic and adaptive history across organisms’ distribution ranges. For this reason, decomposing single species into genetic units may represent a powerful tool to better understand biogeographical patterns as well as improve predictions of the effects of GCC (global climate change) on biodiversity loss. Using 279 georeferenced Iberian accessions, we used classes of three intraspecific genetic units of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana obtained from the genetic analyses of nuclear SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms), chloroplast SNPs, and the vernalization requirement for flowering. We used SDM (species distribution models), including climate, vegetation, and soil data, at the whole‐species and genetic‐unit levels. We compared model outputs for present environmental conditions and with a particularly severe GCC scenario. SDM accuracy was high for genetic units with smaller distribution ranges. Kernel density plots identified the environmental variables underpinning potential distribution ranges of genetic units. Combinations of environmental variables accounted for potential distribution ranges of genetic units, which shrank dramatically with GCC at almost all levels. Only two genetic clusters increased their potential distribution ranges with GCC. The application of SDM to intraspecific genetic units provides a detailed picture on the biogeographical patterns of distinct genetic groups based on different genetic criteria. Our approach also allowed us to pinpoint the genetic changes, in terms of genetic background and physiological requirements for flowering, that Iberian A. thaliana may experience with a GCC scenario applying SDM to intraspecific genetic units.