Body size and extinction risk in Australian mammals: An information‐theoretic approach

The critical weight range (CWR) hypothesis for Australian mammals states that extinctions and declines have been concentrated in species with body mass between 35 g and 5.5 kg. The biological basis for this hypothesis is that species of intermediate size are disproportionately impacted by introduced predators. The CWR hypothesis has received support from several statistical studies over the past decade, although the evidence is weaker or non‐existent for certain groups such as mesic‐zone mammals and arboreal mammals. In this study, we employ an information‐theoretic model selection approach to gain further insights into the relationship between body mass and extinction risk in Australian mammals. We find evidence, consistent with the CWR hypothesis, that extinction risk peaks at intermediate body masses for marsupials, rodents and ground‐dwelling species, but not for arboreal species. In contrast to previous studies, we find that the CWR describes extinction patterns in the mesic zone as well as the arid zone. In the mesic zone, there is also a weaker tendency for large species above the CWR to be more vulnerable, consistent with extinction patterns on other continents. We find that a more biological plausible Gaussian distribution consistently fits the data better than the polynomial models that have been used in previous studies. Our results justify conservation programmes targeted at species within the CWR across Australia.     

Arid Recovery – A comparison of reptile and small mammal populations inside and outside a large rabbit,cat and fox‐proof exclosure in arid South Australia

Australian arid zone mammal species within the Critical Weight Range (CWR) of 35 g–5.5 kg have suffered disproportionately in the global epidemic of contemporary faunal extinctions. CWR extinctions have been attributed largely to the effects of introduced or invasive mammals; however, the impact of these threatening processes on smaller mammals and reptiles is less clear. The change in small mammal and reptile assemblages after the removal of rabbits, cats and foxes was studied over a 6‐year period in a landscape‐scale exclosure in the Australian arid zone. Rodents, particularly Notomys alexis and Pseudomys bolami, increased to 15 times higher inside the feral‐proof Arid Recovery Reserve compared with outside sites, where rabbits, cats and foxes were still present. Predation by cats was thought to exert the greatest influence on rodent numbers owing to the maintenance of the disparity in rodent responses through dry years and the differences in dietary preferences between rabbits and P. bolami. The presence of introduced Mus domesticus or medium‐sized re‐introduced mammal species did not significantly affect resident small mammal or reptile abundance. Abundance of most dasyurids and small lizards did not change significantly after the removal of feral animals although reductions in gecko populations inside the reserve may be attributable to second order trophic interactions or subtle changes in vegetation structure and cover. This study suggests that populations of rodent species in northern South Australia below the CWR may also be significantly affected by introduced cats, foxes and/or rabbits and that a taxa specific model of Australian mammal decline may be more accurate than one based on body weight.     

Introduced cats Felis catus eating a continental fauna: inventory and traits of Australian mammal species killed

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Not all predators are equal: a continent‐scale analysis of the effects of predator control on Australian mammals

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Six‐year demographic study reveals threat of stochastic extinction for remnant populations of a threatened amphibian

Sustained demographic studies are essential for early detection of species decline in time for effective management response. A paucity of such background data hindered the potential for successful conservation during the global amphibian decline and remains problematic today. The current study analysed 6 years of mark‐recapture data to determine the vital demographic rates in three habitat precincts of the threatened frog, Litoria aurea (Hylidae) and to understand the underlying causes of variability in population size. Variability in population size of L. aurea was similar to many pond‐breeding species; however this level of fluctuation is rare among threatened amphibians. Highly variable populations are at greater risk of local extinction and the low level of connectivity between L. aurea populations means they are at a greater risk of further decline due to stochastic extinction events and incapacity to recolonize distant habitat. We recommend that management of this species should encourage recolonization through creation of habitat corridors and reintroduction of L. aurea to areas where stochastic extinction events are suspected.     

Fine‐scale habitat preferences and habitat partitioning by three mycophagous mammals in tropical wet sclerophyll forest,north‐eastern Australia

Abstract Fine‐scale habitat preferences of three co‐occurring mycophagous mammals were examined in a tropical wet sclerophyll forest community in north‐eastern Australia. Two of the three mammal species responded to fine‐scale variation in vegetation and landform around individual trap locations. At a broad scale, the northern bettong (Bettongia tropica), an endangered marsupial endemic to the Australian wet tropics region, showed a preference for ridges over mid‐slopes and gullies, irrespective of forest type. In contrast, the northern brown bandicoot (Isoodon macrourus), a widespread marsupial, displayed a preference for Eucalyptus woodland over adjacent Allocasuarina forest, irrespective of topographic category. The giant white‐tailed rat (Uromys caudimaculatus), a rodent endemic to the wet tropics, showed no particular preference for either forest type or topographic category. A multiple regression model of mammal capture success against three principal habitat gradients constructed from 21 habitat variables using principal component analysis indicated strong species‐specific preferences for fine‐scale vegetation assemblages. Bettongs preferred areas of Eucalyptus woodland with sparse ground cover, low densities of certain grass species, high density of tree stems and few pig diggings. Bandicoots, in contrast, favoured areas in both forest types with dense ground cover, fewer tree stems and greater numbers of pig diggings; that is, characteristics least favoured by bettongs. The striking differences in fine‐scale habitat preferences of these two mammals of similar body size and broad habitat requirements suggest a high degree of fine‐scale habitat partitioning. White‐tailed rats did not show preference for any of the habitat gradients examined.     

Analysis of factors implicated in the recent decline of Australia's mammal fauna

Aim To assess whether eight factors thought to be involved in the extinction process can explain the pattern of recent decline in Australia's mammal fauna. Location Australia. Methods We compiled the first comprehensive lists of mammal species extant at the time of European settlement in each of Australia's 76 mainland regions, and assigned a current conservation status to each species in each region to derive an index of faunal attrition. We then sought to explain the observed region‐to‐region variation in attrition (the dependent variable) by building a series of models using variables representing the eight factors. Results A strong geographically based pattern of attrition emerged, with faunal losses being greatest in arid regions and least in areas of high rainfall. The Akaike information criterion showed support for one model that explained 93% of the region‐to‐region variation in attrition. Its six variables all made independent contributions towards explaining the observed variation. Two were environmental variables, namely mean annual rainfall (a surrogate for regional productivity) and environmental change (a measure of post‐European disturbance). The other four were faunal variables, namely phylogenetic similarity, body‐weight distribution, area (as a surrogate for extent of occurrence), and proportion of species that usually shelter on the ground (rather than in rock piles, burrows or trees). Main conclusions In combination with historical evidence, the analysis provides an explicit basis for setting priorities among regions and species. It also shows that the long‐term recovery of populations of many species of Australian mammals will require introduced predator suppression as well as extensive habitat management that includes controlling feral herbivores. Specifically, habitat management should restore aspects of productivity relevant to the types of species at risk and ensure the continual availability of suitable refuges from physiological stressors.     

A genetic component of extinction risk in mammals

Genetic factors may play an important role in species extinction but their actual effect remains poorly understood, particularly because of a strong and potentially masking effect expected from ecological traits. We investigated the role of genetics in mammal extinction taking both ecological and genetic factors into account. As a proxy for the role of genetics we used the ratio of the rates of nonsynonymous (amino acid changing) to synonymous (leaving the amino acid unchanged) nucleotide substitutions, K_a / K_s. Because most nonsynonymous substitutions are likely to be slightly deleterious and thus selected against, this ratio is a measure of the inefficiency of selection: if large (but less than 1), it implies a low efficiency of selection against nonsynonymous mutations. As a result, nonsynonymous mutations may accumulate and thus contribute to extinction. As a proxy for the role of ecology we used body mass W, with which most extinction‐related ecological traits strongly correlate. As a measure of extinction risk we used species’ affiliation with the five levels of extinction threat according to the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. We calculated K_a / K_s for mitochondrial protein‐coding genes of 211 mammalian species, each of which was characterized by body mass and the level of threat. Using logistic regression analysis, we then constructed a set of logistic regression models of extinction risk on ln(K_a / K_s) and lnW. We found that K_a / K_s and body mass are responsible for a 38% and a 62% increase in extinction risk, respectively. Given that the standard error of these values is 13%, the contribution of genetic factors to extinction risk in mammals is estimated to be one‐quarter to one‐half of the total of ecological and genetic effects. We conclude that the effect of genetics on extinction is significant, though it is almost certainly smaller than the effect of ecological traits. Synthesis Mutation provides the material for evolution. However, most mutations that play a role in evolution are slightly deleterious and thus may contribute to extinction. We assess the role of mitochondrial DNA mutations in mammalian extinction risk and find it to be one‐quarter to one‐half of the total of mutation and body mass effects, where body mass represents an integral measure of extinction‐related ecological traits. Genetic factors may be all the more important, because ecological traits associated with large body mass would both promote and protect from extinction, while mutation accumulation caused by low effective population size seems to have no counterbalance.     

Life‐history and ecological correlates of decline and extinction in the endemic Australian frog fauna

Abstract Frog populations are rapidly disappearing throughout the world. An important issue for ecologists to resolve is why some frog species are more susceptible to decline than others. Here, we performed a comparative study of the endemic Australian frog fauna to determine whether the life history and ecology of declining species have predisposed them to extinction. Decline was consistently found to be correlated with geographical range size across contemporary species and in analyses based on phylogenetically independent contrasts (PICs). Species with narrow geographical ranges have been disproportionately more susceptible to decline. Across species, decline was also correlated with large body size and a high proportion of the geographical range overlapping with the distribution of cane toads and landscape stress (e.g. land clearing). We show that with the exception of range size, however, correlates of decline across species are underpinned by a small number of evolutionary events. Hence, the suite of traits that correlate with decline in the cross‐species analysis is only relevant to a small number of clades. We also found that clutch size, testes mass, ova size and distributional overlap with feral pigs were not significantly related to decline. In the ongoing search for life‐history and ecological correlates of decline and extinction, our results highlight the importance of performing analyses across contemporary species and using PICs.     

Mass extinctions do not explain skew in interspecific body size distributions

In several higher animal taxa, such as mammals and birds, the distribution of species body sizes is heavily skewed towards small size. Previous studies have suggested that small‐bodied organisms are less prone to extinction than large‐bodied species. If small body size is favourable during mass extinction events, a post mass extinction excess of small‐bodied species may proliferate and maintain skewed body size distributions sometime after. Here, we modelled mass extinctions and found that even unrealistically strong body mass selection has little effect on the skew of interspecific body size distributions. Moreover, selection against large body size may, counter intuitively, skew size distributions towards large body size. In any case, subsequent evolutionary diversification rapidly erases these rather small effects mass extinctions may have on size distributions. Next, we used body masses of extant species and phylogenetic methods to investigate possible changes in body size distributions across the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K‐Pg) mass extinction. Body size distributions of extant clades that originated during the Cretaceous are on average more skewed than their subclades that originated during the Paleogene, but the difference is only minor in mammals, and in birds, it can be explained by a positive relationship between species richness and skewness that is also present in clades that originated after the transition. Hence, we cannot infer from extant species whether the K‐Pg mass extinctions were size‐selective, but they are not the reason why most extant bird and mammal species are small‐bodied.     

Mammal extinctions and the increasing isolation of humans on the tree of life

A sixth great mass extinction is ongoing due to the direct and indirect effects of human pressures. However, not all lineages are affected equally. From an anthropocentric perspective, it is often purported that humans hold a unique place on Earth. Here, we show that our current impacts on the natural world risk realizing that expectation. We simulated species loss on the mammalian phylogenetic tree, informed by species current extinction risks. We explored how Homo sapiens could become isolated in the tree if species currently threatened with extinction disappeared. We analyzed correlates of mammal extinctions risks that may drive this isolation pattern. We show that, within mammals, and more particularly within primates, extinction risks increase with the number of known threat types, and decrease with geographic range size. Extinctions increase with species body mass, trophic level, and the median longitudinal extent of each species range in mammals but not within primates. The risks of extinction are frequently high among H. sapiens close relatives. Pruning threatened primates, including apes (Hominidae, Hylobatidae), from the tree of life will lead to our species being among those with the fewest close relatives. If no action is taken, we will thus not only lose crucial biodiversity for the preservation of Earth ecosystems, but also a key living reference to what makes us human.     

Rainfall,groundwater and refuges: Predicting extinctions of Australian tropical mammal species

Abstract A general decline in populations of some savanna mammal species has occurred since the mid-1980s in a fairly pristine national park environment in the Australian wet-dry tropics. Terrestrial native rodents have exhibited the greatest decline and marsupials the least. During the same period, waterholes have dried up and the previous strong association of mammals with riparian vegetation has diminished. A regional index of the level of groundwater was developed from 16 unexploited bores from across the northern half of the Northern Territory. Predicted mean groundwater values over 28 years showed a strong increase throughout the 1970s and a similar decrease throughout the 1980s. Using data since 1986, strong correlations between mammal numbers and groundwater levels for the preceding two years, and much weaker relationships with rainfall, were obtained. In turn, the groundwater levels were best correlated with an eight-year running mean of rainfall for both Darwin and Alice Springs and an eleven-year running mean for the Southern Oscillation Index. Extrapolating backward in time, cumulative pressure variation at Darwin showed two extended periods of predicted low ground-water values, 1900s–1920s and 1940s. Both periods were preceded by the last records of a number of now-extinct mammals from central Australia. A third trough in the early 1960s suggests another period of extinction in central Australia, previously unappreciated due to the lack of survey work in the 1950s. Further, by this analysis, the past 20 years has been the best period for mammals since weather records commenced. Analysis of continental-scale distributions of mammals showed evidence of fluctuations suggesting rocky areas are important refuges for some species during periods of low groundwater levels. In contrast to those in savanna habitats, the mammals of the extensive wetland areas fluctuated in harmony with rainfall on a short-term basis except where habitat is flooded. It is the species which occur only in savanna but not also in rocky or wetland habitats which are most at risk. A number of other species-vulnerability characteristics were identified: riparian vegetation specificity; the degree to which they fall within the critical size range (35 g-5. 5 kg); degree of semelparity; smallness of population size; and smallness of geographic range. Those savanna species with annual life histories strongly associated with riparian areas are likely to be in greatest jeopardy. The species which appear to be most vulnerable in northwestern Australia are Conilurus penicillatus, Mesembriomys gouldii, Mesembriomys macrurus, Antechinus bellus, Phascogale tapoatafa and Rattus tunneyi. Our recent benign climatic history has coincided with the great public environmental awakening and upsurge in environmental research and management efforts. This historical accident has probably led us to overstate the negative effects of human impact and also our ability to change the course of biological history by ameliorating human impact. Our distorted view of these factors has further led us to over-emphasize research of a spatial nature to the detriment of temporal studies. We must redress this balance.     

Predation selectively culls medium-sized species from island mammal faunas

Globally, elevated extinction risk in mammals is strongly associated with large body size. However, in regions where introduced predators exert strong top-down pressure on mammal populations, the selectivity of extinctions may be skewed towards species of intermediate body size, leading to a hump-shaped relationship between size and extinction risk. The existence of this kind of extinction pattern, and its link to predation, has been contentious and difficult to demonstrate. Here, we test the hypothesis of a hump-shaped body size–extinction relationship, using a database of 927 island mammal populations. We show that the size-selectivity of extinctions on many islands has exceeded that expected under null models. On islands with introduced predators, extinctions are biased towards intermediate body sizes, but this bias does not occur on islands without predators. Hence, on islands with a large-bodied mammal fauna, predators are selectively culling species from the lower end of the size distribution, and on islands with a small-bodied fauna they are culling species from the upper end. These findings suggest that it will be difficult to use predictable generalizations about extinction patterns, such as a positive body size–extinction risk association, to anticipate future species declines and plan conservation strategies accordingly.     

Body size changes in bivalves of the family Limidae in the aftermath of the end‐Triassic mass extinction: the Brobdingnag effect

Reduction in body size of organisms following mass extinctions is well‐known and often ascribed to the Lilliput effect. This phenomenon is expressed as a temporary body size reduction within surviving species. Despite its wide usage the term is often loosely applied to any small post‐extinction taxa. Here we assess the size of bivalves of the family Limidae (Rafineque) prior to, and in the aftermath of, the end‐Triassic mass extinction event. Of the species studied only one occurs prior to the extinction event, though is too scarce to test for the Lilliput effect. Instead, newly evolved species originate at small body sizes and undergo a within‐species size increase, most dramatically demonstrated by Plagiostoma giganteum (Sowerby) which, over two million years, increases in size by 179%. This trend is seen in both field and museum collections. We term this within‐species size increase of newly originated species in the aftermath of mass extinction, the Brobdingnag effect, after the giants that were contemporary with the Lilliputians in Swift's Gulliver's Travels. The size increase results from greater longevity and faster growth rates. The cause of the effect is unclear, although it probably relates to improved environmental conditions. Oxygen‐poor conditions in the Early Jurassic are associated with populations of smaller body size caused by elevated juvenile mortality but these are local/regional effects that do not alter the long‐term, size increase. Although temperature‐size relationships exist for many organisms (Temperature‐Size Rule and Bergmann's Rule), the importance of this is unclear here because of a poorly known Early Jurassic temperature record.     

Predicting the consequences of species loss using size‐structured biodiversity approaches

Understanding the consequences of species loss in complex ecological communities is one of the great challenges in current biodiversity research. For a long time, this topic has been addressed by traditional biodiversity experiments. Most of these approaches treat species as trait‐free, taxonomic units characterizing communities only by species number without accounting for species traits. However, extinctions do not occur at random as there is a clear correlation between extinction risk and species traits. In this review, we assume that large species will be most threatened by extinction and use novel allometric and size‐spectrum concepts that include body mass as a primary species trait at the levels of populations and individuals, respectively, to re‐assess three classic debates on the relationships between biodiversity and (i) food‐web structural complexity, (ii) community dynamic stability, and (iii) ecosystem functioning. Contrasting current expectations, size‐structured approaches suggest that the loss of large species, that typically exploit most resource species, may lead to future food webs that are less interwoven and more structured by chains of interactions and compartments. The disruption of natural body‐mass distributions maintaining food‐web stability may trigger avalanches of secondary extinctions and strong trophic cascades with expected knock‐on effects on the functionality of the ecosystems. Therefore, we argue that it is crucial to take into account body size as a species trait when analysing the consequences of biodiversity loss for natural ecosystems. Applying size‐structured approaches provides an integrative ecological concept that enables a better understanding of each species' unique role across communities and the causes and consequences of biodiversity loss.     

Bottom‐up processes in a declining yellow‐footed rock‐wallaby (Petrogale xanthopus celeris) population

Populations of large herbivores are generally considered to be food limited, escaping the regulatory effects of predation through their large body size, migratory behaviour and/or the occurrence of alternate prey species. In the Australian arid and semi‐arid zones, the availability of forage biomass is considered to be the primary driver of fluctuations in kangaroo abundance. However, little is known about the population dynamics of the smaller sympatric macropods. We examined the demographic traits of a large colony of yellow‐footed rock‐wallabies (Petrogale xanthopus celeris), following a 2‐year period of above average rainfall. The population was located within a conservation reserve that was subject to a predator control program around its perimeter and on neighbouring properties. The low predator abundance provided an opportunity to gauge the strength of bottom‐up population processes. During the two years of the study, the population declined in size by 53%, resulting from both the virtual absence of juvenile recruitment and the loss of adult wallabies. Although reproductive output was high, low pouch young and juvenile survival rates resulted in few individuals progressing into the adult population. With minimal recruitment, the rate of population decline (r = 0.77) matched the observed adult survival rate (Φ = 0.76). Despite average rainfall conditions during the study, survival rates across all age‐classes were equivalent to those reported for other rock‐wallaby populations during periods of scarcity. The reduced survival rates were attributed to low levels of forage resources, particularly around the wallabies' refuge sites, suggesting the bottom‐up regulation of the colony at high densities. The data suggest that the colony was at temporarily high abundance, following a rainfall driven pulse of recruitment. Conservation management actions for this species should focus on increasing juvenile survival rates within declining populations, through the control of feral goats (Capra hircus), rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes).     

Population demography of frillneck lizards (Chlamydosaurus kingii,Gray 1825) in the wet‐dry tropics of Australia

We explore the effects of biotic and abiotic factors on the population demography of frillneck lizards (Chlamydosaurus kingii) in the Australian wet‐dry tropics. Annual growth rates of males were significantly higher across all body sizes compared to females, resulting in a significant larger maximum body size in males. Both male and female lizards were highly philopatric and 81% of the among‐year recapture distances were less than 200 m. Juvenile and adult frillnecks were subjected to low but highly variable annual survival rates. Both proportion of juveniles and relative proportion of reproductive females showed extensive among‐year variations. No relationship was, however, observed between proportion of gravid females and that of juveniles captured during the subsequent year. High rainfall in January was negatively correlated with recruitment most likely caused by increased egg/embryo mortality due to flooding of nest sites. We therefore suggest that the lack of association between female reproduction and juvenile recruitment was due to the effects of stochastic variation in January rainfall. Lizard numbers increased during the first five years of the study followed by a decline during the subsequent four years. Our analyses show that annual variation in survival constituted the main determinant in driving the annual change in frillneck numbers. Surprisingly, no relationship was observed between fillneck population dynamics and annual variation in juvenile recruitment. We suggest that the 7‐years over which these analyses were conducted were insufficient to detect any significant effects of recruitment on lizard numbers, demonstrating the need for long‐term studies to accurately document vertebrate population demographic processes in areas experiencing stochastic variations rainfall such as the Australian wet‐dry tropics.     

Extinction‐driven changes in frugivore communities on oceanic islands

Global change and human expansion have resulted in many species extinctions worldwide, but the geographic variation and determinants of extinction risk in particular guilds still remain little explored. Here, we quantified insular extinctions of frugivorous vertebrates (including birds, mammals and reptiles) across 74 tropical and subtropical oceanic islands within 20 archipelagos worldwide and investigated extinction in relation to island characteristics (island area, isolation, elevation and climate) and species’ functional traits (body mass, diet and ability to fly). Out of the 74 islands, 33 islands (45%) have records of frugivore extinctions, with one third (mean: 34%, range: 2–100%) of the pre‐extinction frugivore community being lost. Geographic areas with more than 50% loss of pre‐extinction species richness include islands in the Pacific (within Hawaii, Cook Islands and Tonga Islands) and the Indian Ocean (Mascarenes, Seychelles). The proportion of species richness lost from original pre‐extinction communities is highest on small and isolated islands, increases with island elevation, but is unrelated to temperature or precipitation. Large and flightless species had higher extinction probability than small or volant species. Across islands with extinction events, a pronounced downsizing of the frugivore community is observed, with a strong extinction‐driven reduction of mean body mass (mean: 37%, range: –18–100%) and maximum body mass (mean: 51%, range: 0–100%). The results document a substantial trophic downgrading of frugivore communities on oceanic islands worldwide, with a non‐random pattern in relation to geography, island characteristics and species’ functional traits. This implies severe consequences for ecosystem processes that depend on mutualistic plant–animal interactions, including ecosystem dynamics that result from the dispersal of large‐seeded plants by large‐bodied frugivores. We suggest that targeted conservation and rewilding efforts on islands are needed to halt the defaunation of large and non‐volant seed dispersers and to restore frugivore communities and key ecological interactions.     

Negative or positive density‐dependence in movements depends on climatic seasons: The case of a Neotropical marsupial

One of the major challenges in animal ecology is to understand the factors and processes driving movement behaviour. Although density may influence movement patterns, the occurrence and nature of density‐dependence in animal movements are still unclear, particularly whether it may vary among populations of a species, or across time within a population. Here, we evaluate the occurrence and nature of density‐dependence in the movements of a Neotropical marsupial, the Grey four‐eyed opossum Philander frenatus (Didelphidae, Didelphimorphia). We quantified fine‐scale path tortuosity of individuals inhabiting continuous forest areas and forest fragments, in different climatic seasons (humid vs. super‐humid). We also determined the relative importance of population size compared to sex and body mass on movements, using a model‐selection approach. In forest fragments, path tortuosity increased with population size in the super‐humid season, but decreased in the humid season. In the continuous forest, path tortuosity was affected only by sex and body mass, being slightly higher in males and negatively related to body mass. The occurrence of density‐dependence on movements only in forest fragments is likely to reflect the higher overall density of P. frenatus in small forest fragments. The variation in the nature of density‐dependence between climatic seasons is likely to reflect a trade off between foraging over large areas (humid season, low resource availability) versus avoiding agonistic encounters (super‐humid season, high resource availability). Our results show that (i) density‐dependence in movements may be context‐dependent occurring only in areas of relatively high overall population density; and (ii) density may affect movements in different ways at different climatic seasons.     

Effects of long‐term fox baiting on species composition and abundance in an Australian lizard community

Abstract We report on the effects of almost a decade of 1080‐fox baiting on a lizard community in a mosaic Australian habitat. Replicated comparisons of baited versus non‐baited control areas with near‐identical histories of bush fires, grazing and climate showed a higher density of red fox tracks (Canis vulpes) in the non‐baited areas. Furthermore, the fox‐baited areas showed a more than five times higher density of sand goannas (Varanus gouldii), a species that strongly overlaps the red fox in food niche breadth and is itself a direct target of fox predation, in particular its eggs and young. Exclusion of predators from a natural habitat led to significant increases in the density of small lizards, suggesting that predation can drive lizard population dynamics in this ecosystem. Replicated pitfall‐trapping in three habitats in the control areas (with high fox and low goanna density) versus the baited areas (with low fox and high goanna density) showed that fox baiting had positive effects on the density of diurnal scincid lizards in open grassland, whereas the control areas showed higher density of nocturnal gecko lizards. Our interpretation is that fox removal may result in a shift in the top predator towards the sand goanna. Historically, this indigenous, endemic species was the natural top predator. It has co‐evolved with its prey and that may have moulded it into a more efficient lizard predator per encounter than the introduced fox.