社会-生态系统视角下沙漠化逆转定量评价——以宁夏盐池县为例

对沙漠化逆转区进行有效管理是沙漠化治理至关重要的环节,研究沙漠化逆转区社会-生态系统的干扰状况可以为沙漠化逆转区的管理提供理论支持。基于MODIS NDVI产品数据,用移动窗口法则计算了不同空间尺度上盐池县社会-生态系统的干扰强度和干扰连通度,并分析了2000—2015年间不同时间段内宁夏盐池县社会-生态系统干扰的空间分布。结果表明:(1)盐池县不同时间段内社会-生态系统干扰的空间分布具有较大差异,2000—2004年强干扰主要集中于盐池县的南部;2004—2008年强干扰在北部、中部均有表现;2008—2012年强干扰分别位于东、中、西3个小区域,并没有集中于一个区域,且北部强干扰区域进一步增强;2012—2015年强干扰的区域主要集中于县域的北部、中西部和西北部。(2)不同空间尺度上社会-生态系统干扰强度和连通度有很大差异,随着移动窗口的增大,不同集群的干扰类型也发生了变化,主要表现为低干扰离散型向低干扰集聚型转变,高干扰集聚型向低干扰离散型转变。(3)总体上看,除了个别区域社会-生态系统干扰强度和连通度较大以外,盐池县大部分地区社会-生态系统受干扰的强度和连通度并不大,沙漠化逆转程度较低,还有待进一步加强沙漠化治理力度。     

Co‐adapting societal and ecological interactions following large disturbances in urban park woodlands

The responses of urban park woodlands to large disturbances provide the opportunity to identify and examine linkages in social‐ecological systems in urban landscapes. We propose that the Panarchy model consisting of hierarchically nested adaptive cycles provides a useful framework to evaluate those linkages. We use two case studies as examples – Cherokee Park in Louisville, Kentucky, USA and Tijuca Forest in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In the Cherokee Park case study, the disturbance, a destructive tornado, triggered bottom‐up societal responses that created new institutions that influenced park management and shifted the woodland community from a successional pathway dominated by invasive exotic plants to one where native plant species are regaining importance. In the Tijuca Forest example, the disturbance, large scale land‐use changes during the 18th century, triggered primarily top‐down societal responses to create the world's largest urban forest through a transformative programme of intensive multispecies forest replanting and management. Currently, fine scale disturbances – primarily anthropogenically caused fire – threaten portions of Tijuca Forest through loss of forest structure and establishment of flammable invasive plants, and again elicited top‐down societal responses to stop further destruction and promote greater native plant regeneration. These case studies illustrate that either natural or anthropogenic disturbances to natural systems can alter the direction and magnitude of interactions between social and natural domains in urban landscapes in a co‐adaptive manner that alters structures and processes in both system components.     

社会-生态系统恢复力研究综述

目前国内外对脆弱性的论述很多，然而关于恢复力的研究却刚刚起步且困难重重。1973年Holling创造性地将恢复力引入到生态系统稳定性的研究中，并将其定义为系统吸收干扰并继续维持其功能、结构、反馈等不发生质变的能力。30多年来这一术语的概念和内涵在大量的案例研究中得到了丰富和完善，然而这些研究对恢复力的不同解释亦造成了大量的混淆，因此需要在统一的理论基础上，根据控制系统变化的属性来构建恢复力的概念并进行应用研究。在社会-生态系统框架下，分析了恢复力研究的基础理论——适应性循环及扰沌，对其概念及内涵做了进展综述，回顾了恢复力的应用案例，探讨了定量化问题，在此基础上对社会．生态系统恢复力的研究进行了展望，提出了面临的关键问题及今后的研究方向。     

社会-生态网络方法研究进展

社会-生态系统是由一个或多个社会和生态子系统交互作用形成的复杂的、非线性的、动态耦合系统。理解社会与生态子系统之间的复杂交互关系对于实现有效、可持续的环境治理至关重要。社会-生态网络方法是网络理论在社会-生态交互作用研究中应用与发展的产物，在定量刻画社会-生态系统结构、分析系统动态变化、推动系统适应性治理等方面具有重大的应用潜力。系统梳理了国内外现有的社会-生态网络研究，首先从网络的类型、构建模式、分析方法3个方面介绍社会-生态网络方法，并阐述其在资源管理、社会-生态匹配、社会-生态适应性治理领域中的应用，探讨社会-生态网络方法在研究社会-生态交互作用中的优势和挑战，最后提出未来社会-生态网络研究的重点方向，即社会-生态网络的动态变化过程以及社会-生态网络结构与功能关系。研究旨在深化网络分析可用于描述人—自然关系的认识，为社会-生态系统的网络研究提供实践指导，以期促进社会-生态网络方法在我国社会-生态系统研究中的应用。     

Forecasting intensifying disturbance effects on coral reefs

Anticipating future changes of an ecosystem's dynamics requires knowledge of how its key communities respond to current environmental regimes. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under threat, with rapid changes of its reef‐building hard coral (HC) community structure already evident across broad spatial scales. While several underlying relationships between HC and multiple disturbances have been documented, responses of other benthic communities to disturbances are not well understood. Here we used statistical modelling to explore the effects of broad‐scale climate‐related disturbances on benthic communities to predict their structure under scenarios of increasing disturbance frequency. We parameterized a multivariate model using the composition of benthic communities estimated by 145,000 observations from the northern GBR between 2012 and 2017. During this time, surveyed reefs were variously impacted by two tropical cyclones and two heat stress events that resulted in extensive HC mortality. This unprecedented sequence of disturbances was used to estimate the effects of discrete versus interacting disturbances on the compositional structure of HC, soft corals (SC) and algae. Discrete disturbances increased the prevalence of algae relative to HC while the interaction between cyclones and heat stress was the main driver of the increase in SC relative to algae and HC. Predictions from disturbance scenarios included relative increases in algae versus SC that varied by the frequency and types of disturbance interactions. However, high uncertainty of compositional changes in the presence of several disturbances shows that responses of algae and SC to the decline in HC needs further research. Better understanding of the effects of multiple disturbances on benthic communities as a whole is essential for predicting the future status of coral reefs and managing them in the light of new environmental regimes. The approach we develop here opens new opportunities for reaching this goal.     

Understanding the Complexity of Economic, Ecological, and Social Systems

Hierarchies and adaptive cycles comprise the basis of ecosystems and social-ecological systems across scales. Together they form a panarchy. The panarchy describes how a healthy system can invent and experiment, benefiting from inventions that create opportunity while being kept safe from those that destabilize because of their nature or excessive exuberance. Each level is allowed to operate at its own pace, protected from above by slower, larger levels but invigorated from below by faster, smaller cycles of innovation. The whole panarchy is therefore both creative and conserving. The interactions between cycles in a panarchy combine learning with continuity. An analysis of this process helps to clarify the meaning of “sustainable development.” Sustainability is the capacity to create, test, and maintain adaptive capability. Development is the process of creating, testing, and maintaining opportunity. The phrase that combines the two, “sustainable development,” thus refers to the goal of fostering adaptive capabilities and creating opportunities. It is therefore not an oxymoron but a term that describes a logical partnership. Received 7 March 2001; accepted 16 March 2001.     

Virtual special issue: Social-ecological systems research in tropical ecosystems

Biodiversity is declining globally, primarily due to anthropogenic threats. Therefore, effective conservation efforts must integrate human and environmental components. Social-ecological systems research is increasingly being adopted as a means of studying complex relationships between people and the environment. I assess how researchers are employing social-ecological systems approaches or frameworks to the study of tropical ecosystems. I reviewed articles published in Biotropica from 2010 through 2022 searching for research on social-ecological systems. A broad keyword search revealed only 2 articles using a variation of social-ecological systems, human-environment systems, or coupled human and natural systems. This contrasts with a growing number of articles published with these search terms in other conservation-related journals, primarily led by environmental scientists. After reviewing titles for all 1298 research articles published during this period, I selected 12 articles for inclusion in the virtual special issue “Social-Ecological Systems Research in Topical Ecosystems”. These articles cover a broad range of geographical locations, ecosystem types, species, and conservation themes. Social-ecological systems frameworks offer an integrated way to study complex relationships between humans and nature, yet this type of research appears under-utilized by authors in Biotropica. I offer seven guidelines for authors interested in pursuing this research such as developing collaborations between social and environmental scientists.     

Catastrophes,connectivity and Allee effects in the design of marine reserve networks

Catastrophic events, like oil spills and hurricanes, occur in many marine systems. One potential role of marine reserves is buffering populations against disturbances, including the potential for disturbance-driven population collapses under Allee effects. This buffering capacity depends on reserves in a network providing rescue effects, setting up a tradeoff where reserves need to be connected to facilitate rescue, but also distributed in space to prevent simultaneous extinction. We use a set of population models to examine how dispersal ability and the disturbance regime interact to determine the optimal reserve spacing. We incorporate fishing in a spatially-explicit model to understand the effect of objective choice (e.g. conservation versus fisheries yield) on the optimal reserve spacing. We show that the optimal spacing between reserves increases when accounting for catastrophes with larger spacing needed when Allee effects interact with catastrophes to increase the probability of extinction. We also show that classic tradeoffs between conservation and fishing objectives disappear in the presence of catastrophes. Specifically, we found that at intermediate levels of disturbance, it is optimal to spread out reserves in order to increase both population persistence and to maximize spillover into non-reserve areas.     

Disturbance and change in biodiversity

Understanding how disturbance affects biodiversity is important for both fundamental and applied reasons. Here, I investigate how disturbances with different ecological effects change biodiversity metrics. I define three main types of disturbance effects: D disturbance (shifts in mortality rate), B disturbance (shifts in reproductive rates) and K disturbance (shifts in carrying capacity). Numerous composite disturbances can be defined including any combination of these three types of ecological effects. The consequences of D, B and K disturbances, as well as of composite DBK disturbances are examined by comparing metrics before and after a disturbance, in disturbed and undisturbed communities. I use simulations of neutral communities and examine species richness, total abundance and species abundance distributions. The patterns of change in biodiversity metrics are consistent among different types of disturbance. K disturbance has the most severe effects, followed by D disturbance, and B disturbance has nearly negligible effects. Consequences of composite DBK disturbances are more complex than any of the three types of disturbance, with unimodal relationships along a disturbance gradient arising when D, B and K are negatively correlated. Importantly, regardless of disturbance type, community isolation enhances the negative consequences and hinders the positive effects of disturbances.     

Synergy between adaptive management and participatory modelling: The two processes as interconnected spirals

The management of social-ecological systems often presents a complex and wicked problem due to interactions between natural processes and varied, sometimes opposing, stakeholder goals. The adaptive management and participatory modelling processes are often used either to manage or in support of the management of social-ecological systems but are not always used in concert. We suggest that these processes are naturally complementary with overlapping components and between-process feedback. As such, we advocate that adaptive management should make use of participatory modelling for the management of social-ecological systems to increase stakeholder communication, confidence, and participation, streamline management strategy development, and improve management strategy application and durability. We present a translation of the typical adaptive management cycle concept to a spiral format, as well as a representation of adaptive management and participatory modelling proceeding together as interconnected spirals.     

基于文化与政治生态学的社会生态系统演进机制研究 ——以杭州与西湖为例

科学认识社会生态系统演进机制是对其进行有效管理的重要基础。以文化与政治生态学为理论基础,提出适合杭州—西湖社会生态系统的综合研究框架,识别了杭州—西湖社会生态系统的5个演进阶段,并分析出系统演进中的3种潜在状态。自然、政治、经济以及社会驱动力是影响杭州—西湖社会生态系统的主导因素,人类行为影响整个生态系统中扰动的频率、大小和形式并改变西湖生态系统的结构与功能,进而影响西湖为城市提供生态系统服务的潜能。在不同历史时期,基于自然、社会、经济、文化等多层面的需求,西湖在不同系统状态下为城市供给不同类别和质量的生态系统服务,总体而言供给与调节服务比例逐渐下降,文化服务逐渐上升,并且后者逐步成为最主要的生态系统服务类别。杭州与西湖在长期的互馈共生中建立了社会生态系统的自适应性调节机制,其背后的生态智慧可为现代风景园林规划提供重要启示。     

Repeat disturbances have cumulative impacts on stream communities

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The dynamical implications of human behaviour on a social-ecological harvesting model

The dynamic aspects of human harvesting behaviour are often overlooked in resource management, such that models often neglect the complexities of dynamic human effort. Some researchers have recognized this, and a recent push has been made to understand how human behaviour and ecological systems interact through dynamic social-ecological systems. Here, we use a recent example of a social-ecological dynamical systems model to investigate the relationship between harvesting behaviour and the dynamics and stability of a harvested resource, and search for general rules in how relatively simple human behaviours can either stabilize or destabilize resource dynamics and yield. Our results suggest that weak to moderate behavioural and effort responses tend to stabilize dynamics by decreasing return times to equilibria or reducing the magnitude of cycles; however, relatively strong human impacts can readily lead to human-driven cycles, chaos, long transients and alternate states. Importantly, we further show that human-driven cycles are characteristically different from typical resource-driven cycles and, therefore, may be differentiated in real ecosystems. Given the potentially dramatic implications of harvesting on resource dynamics, it becomes critical to better understand how human behaviour determines harvesting effort through dynamic social-ecological systems.     

Ecosystem Services and Emergent Vulnerability in Managed Ecosystems: A Geospatial Decision-Support Tool

Managed ecosystems experience vulnerabilities when ecological resilience declines and key flows of ecosystem services become depleted or lost. Drivers of vulnerability often include local management actions in conjunction with other external, larger-scale factors. To translate these concepts to management applications, we developed a conceptual model of feedbacks linking the provision of ecosystem services, their use by society, and anthropogenic change. From this model we derived a method to integrate existing geodata at relevant scales and in locally meaningful ways to provide decision-support for adaptive management efforts. To demonstrate our approach, we conducted a case study assessment of southeast Alaska, where managers are concerned with sustaining fish and wildlife resources in areas where intensive logging disturbance has occurred. Individual datasets were measured as indicators of one of three criteria: ecological capacity to support fish/wildlife populations (provision); human acquisition of fish/wildlife resources (use); and intensity of logging and related land-use change (disturbance). Relationships among these processes were analyzed using two methods—a watershed approach and a high-resolution raster—to identify where provision, use and disturbance were spatially coupled across the landscape. Our results identified very small focal areas of social-ecological coupling that, based on post-logging dynamics and other converging drivers of change, may indicate vulnerability resulting from depletion of ecosystem services. We envision our approach can be used to narrow down where adaptive management might be most beneficial, allowing practitioners with limited funds to prioritize efforts needed to address uncertainty and mitigate vulnerability in managed ecosystems.     

Are Large, Infrequent Disturbances Qualitatively Different from Small, Frequent Disturbances?

In this article, we develop a heuristic model of ecosystem-disturbance dynamics that illustrates a range of responses of disturbance impact to gradients of increasing disturbance extent, intensity, or duration. Three general kinds of response are identified and illustrated: (a) threshold response, (b) scale-independent response, and (c) continuous response. Threshold responses are those in which the response curve shows a discontinuity or a sudden change in slope along the axis of increasing disturbance extent, intensity, or duration. The response threshold occurs at a point where the force of the disturbance exceeds the capacity of internal mechanisms to resist disturbance, or where new mechanisms of recovery become involved. Within this conceptual framework, we find that some unusually large or intense disturbances, but not all, produce qualitatively different responses compared with similar disturbances of lesser magnitude. If disturbance impact does not increase with increasing disturbance extent, intensity, or duration, or if the response curve changes monotonically, then large disturbances are not qualitatively different from small ones. For example, jack pine tends to become reestablished after stand-replacing fire in boreal forests, regardless of fire size, because its serotinous cones provide an adequate seed source throughout the burned area. Thus, large fires are not qualitatively different from small fires in terms of jack pine reproduction. However, if disturbance impact does increase abruptly at some point with increasing disturbance extent, intensity, or duration, often because of thresholds in the capacity of internal mechanisms to resist or respond to disturbance impact, then large disturbances are qualitatively different from small ones, at least for some parameters of ecological response. For example, balsam fir and white cedar can recolonize a small burned patch of boreal forest in close proximity to surviving individuals of these species, but they will be eliminated from a large burn because of their susceptibility to fire-caused mortality and their inability to disperse their seeds over long distances. The conceptual framework presented here permits some new insights into the dynamics of natural systems and may provide a useful tool with which managers can assess the potential for catastrophic damages resulting from large, infrequent disturbances. Received 14 July 1998; accepted 29 September 1998     

An Ecological Risk Management and Capacity Building Model

Worldwide, natural and human ecosystems are increasingly subjected to natural hazards due to global environmental change. Because these threats reflect interaction between social and ecological systems, effective Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) can best be accomplished by increasing community capacity to mitigate, cope with, adapt to, and recover from hazard consequences by developing DRR strategies that accommodate natural and human ecosystem interdependency. One reason of the widespread ineffectiveness in preparedness has been the neglect of environment/community interactions, and how community and individual variables interact with each other. To address this gap an all-hazard and inter-disciplinary literature review was conducted that synergized and integrated individual-level and environment/community-level factors. Based on the review a social-ecological model was developed. This model identifies a multitude of variables operating across a wide range of dimensions (i.e., individual, historical, physical/natural, social, spiritual/religious, economic, political) and different scales (i.e., individual, household, community organisations, businesses, local government, state government). Based on the review a holistic ecological all-hazard inter-disciplinary risk management and capacity building model was developed that describes how these factors interact to influence risk management and adaptive capacities. This holistic model provides a foundation and rationale for facilitating the capacity of all stakeholders in at-risk areas to develop comprehensive social-ecological relationships and researchers to investigate human-environment interactions in depth.     

Towards a theory of ecotone resilience: coastal vegetation on a salinity gradient

Ecotones represent locations where vegetation change is likely to occur as a result of climate and other environmental changes. Using a model of an ecotone vulnerable to such future changes, we estimated the resilience of the ecotone to disturbances. The specific ecotone is that between two different vegetation types, salinity-tolerant and salinity-intolerant, along a gradient in groundwater salinity. In the case studied, each vegetation type, through soil feedback loops, promoted local soil salinity levels that favor itself in competition with the other type. Bifurcation analysis was used to study the system of equations for the two vegetation types and soil salinity. Alternative stable equilibria, one for salinity-tolerant and one for salinity intolerant vegetation, were shown to exist over a region of the groundwater salinity gradient, bounded by two bifurcation points. This region was shown to depend sensitively on parameters such as the rate of upward infiltration of salinity from groundwater into the soil due to evaporation. We showed also that increasing diffusion rates of vegetation can lead to shrinkage of the range between the two bifurcation points. Sharp ecotones are typical of salt-tolerant vegetation (mangroves) near the coastline and salt-intolerant vegetation inland, even though the underlying elevation and groundwater salinity change very gradually. A disturbance such as an input of salinity to the soil from a storm surge could upset this stable boundary, leading to a regime shift of salinity-tolerant vegetation inland. We showed, however, that, for our model as least, a simple pulse disturbance would not be sufficient; the salinity would have to be held at a high level, as a ‘press’, for some time. The approach used here should be generalizable to study the resilience of a variety of ecotones to disturbances.     

Conservation of wildlife populations: factoring in incremental disturbance

Progressive anthropogenic disturbance can alter ecosystem organization potentially causing shifts from one stable state to another. This potential for ecosystem shifts must be considered when establishing targets and objectives for conservation. We ask whether a predator–prey system response to incremental anthropogenic disturbance might shift along a disturbance gradient and, if it does, whether any disturbance thresholds are evident for this system. Development of linear corridors in forested areas increases wolf predation effectiveness, while high density of development provides a safe‐haven for their prey. If wolves limit moose population growth, then wolves and moose should respond inversely to land cover disturbance. Using general linear model analysis, we test how the rate of change in moose (Alces alces) density and wolf (Canis lupus) harvest density are influenced by the rate of change in land cover and proportion of land cover disturbed within a 300,000 km² area in the boreal forest of Alberta, Canada. Using logistic regression, we test how the direction of change in moose density is influenced by measures of land cover change. In response to incremental land cover disturbance, moose declines occurred where <43% of land cover was disturbed; in such landscapes, there were high rates of increase in linear disturbance and wolf density increased. By contrast, moose increases occurred where >43% of land cover was disturbed and wolf density declined. Wolves and moose appeared to respond inversely to incremental disturbance with the balance between moose decline and wolf increase shifting at about 43% of land cover disturbed. Conservation decisions require quantification of disturbance rates and their relationships to predator–prey systems because ecosystem responses to anthropogenic disturbance shift across disturbance gradients.     

Increased tree densities in South African savannas: >50 years of data suggests CO2 as a driver

For the past century, woody plants have increased in grasslands and savannas worldwide. Woody encroachment may significantly alter ecosystem functioning including fire regimes, herbivore carrying capacity, biodiversity and carbon storage capacity. Traditionally, increases in woody cover and density have been ascribed to changes in the disturbance regime (fire and herbivores) or rainfall. Increased atmospheric CO₂ concentrations may also contribute, by increasing growth rates of trees relative to grasses. This hypothesis is still heavily debated because usually potential CO₂ effects are confounded by changes in land use (disturbance regime). Here we analyse changes in woody density in fire experiments at three sites in South African savannas where the disturbance regime (fire and herbivores) was kept constant for 30 and 50 years. If global drivers had significant effects on woody plants, we would expect significant increases in tree densities and biomass over time under the constant disturbance regime. Woody density remained constant in a semiarid savanna but tripled in a mesic savanna between the 1970s and 1990s. At the third site, a semiarid savanna near the southern limits of the biome, tree density doubled from the mid 1990s to 2010. Interpretation of the causes is confounded by population recovery after clearing, but aerial photograph analysis on adjacent non‐cleared areas showed an accompanying 48% increase in woody cover. Increased CO₂ concentrations are consistent with increased woody density while other global drivers (rainfall) remained constant over the duration of the experiments. The absence of a response in one semiarid savanna could be explained by a smaller carbon sink capacity of the dominant species, which would therefore benefit less from increased CO₂. Understanding how savannas and grasslands respond to increased CO₂ and identifying the causes of woody encroachment are essential for the successful management of these systems.     

Control of prosthetic gait

Recent advances in two types of prosthetic gait are particularly noteworthy, namely work on limb and neural prostheses. Current work on artificial limbs has been oriented towards improving devices, with commercialization as the driving force. Progress has been made in understanding how the compliant properties of the foot, ankle and knee joints of artificial legs affect the energetics and kinematics of gait. Work is continuing on automated systems for fabricating sockets with improved fit to increase the comfort of artificial limbs. Neural prostheses use electrical stimulation to activate paralyzed muscle: Advances have been made in understanding how to model the patterns of neural prosthetic gait and how neural prostheses respond to disturbances. Work in real-time control of stimulated muscle has progressed in the area of system identification and in using natural sensors for feedback signals. There still remains a wide gap, however, between able-bodied gait and the gait that can be achieved using current neural prosthesis systems.