The status of dwarf carnivores on Cozumel Island, Mexico

Cozumel Island in the Mexican Caribbean is inhabited by four carnivores, of which two, the Cozumel coati Nasua nelsoni and pygmy raccoon Procyon pygmaeus, are endemic species. The taxonomic status of a third carnivore, a dwarf gray fox Urocyon cinereoargenteus, is undetermined, but may deserve subspecific or species-level recognition. The fourth species, the kinkajou (Potos flavus), may be a recent introduction. We review the status of these carnivores, report our field observations and results of line transect and trapping efforts, discuss current threats to these taxa, and make recommendations for their conservation. A population density of 0.43 ± 0.27 coatis/km², and a total island population size of 150 ± 95 individuals, was estimated from 386 km of line transects in 1994–1995. Intensive trapping efforts (1479 trap-nights) in 2001 at multiple localities were unsuccessful. Pygmy raccoons were observed in the mangrove and coastal wetland areas of the island and in 2001 we captured 11 individuals with the same sampling efforts as for coatis (8.8 raccoons/1000 trap-nights). The gray fox is also apparently very rare on the island. While a few observations of the animals have been made (1984, 1994 and 2001), no animals were seen along transects and none were trapped. The primary threats to the persistence of these taxa include introduced congeners, introduced predators, parasite and disease spill-over from exotic animals, habitat fragmentation, hunting and collection as pets, and hurricanes. We suggest that the Cozumel coati, pygmy raccoon, and the Cozumel population of the gray fox be considered as Critically Endangered according to the IUCN classification system. Current conservation actions focusing on Cozumel carnivores are extremely limited. We recommend eradication of introduced species, maintenance of habitat connectivity, ex situ conservation programs, explicit public policies on land-use and sustainable development, public awareness campaigns, and continuous scientific research and monitoring.     

High genetic structure of the Cozumel Harvest mice,a critically endangered island endemic: conservation implications

We assessed the genetic structure and diversity of Reithrodontomys spectabilis, a critically endangered, endemic rodent from Cozumel Island, México. A total of 90 individuals were trapped from September 2001 to January 2005. Microsatellite data analysis revealed high genetic diversity values: a total of 113 alleles (average 12.5 per locus), H _o  = 0.78, H _e  = 0.80. These high values can be related to Cozumel’s size (478 km²) and extensive native vegetation cover, factors that could be promoting a suitable population size, high heterozygosity and the persistence of rare alleles in the species, as well as some long-term movement of individuals between sampling localities. A strong genetic structure was also observed, with at least four genetic groups, associated with a pattern of isolation by distance. We found a strong allelic and genetic differentiation shown between localities, with negligible recent gene flow and low inbreeding coefficients. The species life history and ecological characteristics—being nocturnal, semi-terrestrial, a good tree climber, having lunar phobia and significant edge effect—are likely affecting its genetic structure and differentiation. The high genetic diversity and population structure award R. spectabilis a significant conservation value. Our results can serve as a basis for future research and conservation of the species, particularly considering the problems the island is facing from habitat perturbation, urbanization and introduction of exotic species. In view of the structure and genetic variability observed, it is essential to establish and reinforce protected areas and management programs for the conservation of the endemic and endangered Cozumel Harvest mice.     

Wattled Curassows in Bolivia: abundance,habitat use,and conservation status

ABSTRACT The Wattled Curassow (Crax globulosa) is a globally threatened species restricted to humid várzea forest (seasonally flooded forest along white‐water rivers) in low‐lying regions of Amazonia. The Wattled Curassow were thought to have been extirpated from the Beni area of Bolivia, but were rediscovered near the Río Negro River in 2001. Our objectives were to determine the size of this population, examine habitat use, and based on our results, assess the conservation status of the Wattled Curassow. During July and August 2006, we used distance sampling to estimate the population density in our study area. We estimated the density of Wattled Curassows at 3.4 (95% CI: 1.4–8.1) individuals/km² and all were observed within 300 m of the river. Based on the availability of suitable habitat (18 km² of riparian várzea habitat within 300 m of the river), we estimated that the breeding population of Wattled Curassows in our study area consisted of 61 individuals. The specialized habitat requirements of the Wattled Curassow has important conservation implications because previous population estimates were based on the availability of várzea forest rather than the availability of water edge habitat within várzea forest. As a result, the current global population estimate (2500–9999) is higher than our estimate (500–2500) that takes the specialized habitat requirements of the Wattled Curassow into account. Given this low estimated population, along with the severely fragmented state of the few remaining populations and their dependence on a specialized and vulnerable habitat, we recommend that the status of the Wattled Curassow be upgraded from Vulnerable to Endangered.     

Distribution,abundance, and habitat use of introduced <Emphasis Type="Italic">Boa constrictor</Emphasis> threatening the native biota of Cozumel Island,Mexico

Species introductions are among the most pervasive types of disturbance, seriously affecting island biota and ecosystem dynamics. The management of introduced generalist species, which may live in a wide range of environmental conditions, can be particularly difficult and is a major challenge for the conservation of native insular species. Boa constrictor was introduced onto Cozumel Island, Mexico, in 1971. The introduction of this generalist predator has affected negatively the native species (many of them endemic to the island) on which the boa feed. It is important to determine temporal variation in boa abundance, the areas of the island in which boas live, and the vegetation types they use in order to develop management strategies to reduce boa pressure on the native biota. We used nocturnal road transect sampling and occasional boa encounters during field work, to estimate boa distribution, abundance and habitat use, taking into account its spatiotemporal patterns on Cozumel Island. This study confirms that Boa constrictor is well established, widespread, and abundant on the island. Our results show that boas are distributed throughout Cozumel, in all vegetation types and geographical regions. Overall, there were 0.11 ± 0.03 boa/10 km road transect. There were no significant spatiotemporal differences in boa activity (time of day) and abundance (monthly, seasonally, by vegetation types or regions of the island). According to the habitat use analysis, there were, however, fewer boas than expected in the subdeciduous tropical forest we sampled and in the central-northern region of the island, which coincide with areas inhabited by humans. There were more boas in areas uninhabited by humans, and there was a tendency towards a greater proportion of dead boas in inhabited areas and live boas in uninhabited areas. Cozumel boas are habitat generalists, which are affected by human induced mortality in inhabited areas. There is a vast area uninhabited by humans, with natural vegetation, on the island where boas have suitable habitats available for their continuous existence on Cozumel. This situation, and the adaptability of the boa, makes the control or eradication of this introduced species a critical conservation challenge.     

Spatiotemporal variation in mechanisms driving regional‐scale population dynamics of a Threatened grassland bird

To achieve national population targets for migratory birds, landscape‐level conservation approaches are increasingly encouraged. However, knowledge of the mechanisms that drive spatiotemporal patterns in population dynamics are needed to inform scale‐variant policy development. Using hierarchical Bayesian models and variable selection, we determined by which mechanism(s), and to what extent, changes in quantity and quality of surrogate grassland habitats contributed to regional variation in population trends of an obligatory grassland bird, Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorous). We used North American Breeding Bird Survey data to develop spatially explicit models of regional population trends over 25 years across 35 agricultural census divisions in Ontario, Canada. We measured the strength of evidence for effects of land‐use change on population trends over the entire study period and over five subperiods. Over the entire study period, one region (Perth) displayed strong evidence of population decline (95% CI is entirely below 0); four regions displayed strong evidence of population increase (Bruce, Simcoe, Peterborough, and Northumberland). Population trends shifted spatially among subperiods, with more extreme declines later in time (1986–1990: 28% of 35 census divisions, 1991–1995: 46%, 1996–2000: 40%, 2001–2005: 66%, 2006–2010: 82%). Important predictors of spatial patterns in Bobolink population trends over the entire study period were human development and fragmentation. However, factors inferred to drive patterns in population trends were not consistent over space and time. This result underscores that effective threat identification (both spatially and temporally) and implementation of flexible, regionally tailored policies will be critical to realize efficient conservation of Bobolink and similar at‐risk species.     

Estimating the Breeding Population of Long-Billed Curlew in the United States

ABSTRACT Determining population size and long-term trends in population size for species of high concern is a priority of international, national, and regional conservation plans. Long-billed curlews (Numenius americanus) are a species of special concern in North America due to apparent declines in their population. Because long-billed curlews are not adequately monitored by existing programs, we undertook a 2-year study with the goals of 1) determining present long-billed curlew distribution and breeding population size in the United States and 2) providing recommendations for a long-term long-billed curlew monitoring protocol. We selected a stratified random sample of survey routes in 16 western states for sampling in 2004 and 2005, and we analyzed count data from these routes to estimate detection probabilities and abundance. In addition, we evaluated habitat along roadsides to determine how well roadsides represented habitat throughout the sampling units. We estimated there were 164,515 (SE=42,047) breeding long-billed curlews in 2004, and 109,533 (SE=31,060) breeding individuals in 2005. These estimates far exceed currently accepted estimates based on expert opinion. We found that habitat along roadsides was representative of long-billed curlew habitat in general. We make recommendations for improving sampling methodology, and we present power curves to provide guidance on minimum sample sizes required to detect trends in abundance.     

Estimation of Abundance and Recommendations for Monitoring White-Cheeked Pintails in Wetlands of Puerto Rico and Territorial Islands

Abstract: The white-cheeked pintail (Anas bahamensis) is listed as threatened, and survey data are needed to assess population status, estimate trends, and guide management on Puerto Rico and territorial islands. We surveyed 51 points in 29 wetland sites to estimate density and population size after the peak of reproduction (Mar-Jul) and before the waterfowl hunting season (Nov-Jan). Estimated density was 2.33 individuals/ha (SE = 0.27), and estimated population size was 3,755 individuals (SE = 435, log-normal 95% CI = 2,995 to 4,708) in 1,614 ha surveyed in August-October 2003-2005. Density differed between August-October 2003 (Ď = 3.07 individuals/ha, SE = 0.41) and 2004 (Ď = 1.26 individuals/ha, SE = 0.17) and between August-October 2004 and 2005 (Ď = 2.54 individuals/ha, SE = 0.47) but not between August- October 2003 and 2005. Spatial distribution ranged from nearly random (estimate of dispersion parameter [b̌] = 0.99) to highly clumped (b̌ = 3.71). We suggest that spatiotemporal variation of wetland hydrochemical conditions caused changes in foraging resources, which in turn caused changes in white-cheeked pintail density and spacing patterns. We recommend surveying 186 points 3 times in August-October for estimated density to have a coefficient of variation of 0.10, even when white-cheeked pintails are highly clustered (estimate of exp cluster size, Ě[s] = 16.1, SE = 2.8) and clumped (b = 4) in space. We provide additional recommendations for integrating monitoring, research, and management objectives to better understand the ecology and promote the conservation of white-cheeked pintails and their habitats locally and regionally.     

植物种群生存力分析研究进展

对十多年来国外植物PVA的研究进行了综合评述;具体分析了影响植物种群生存力的各种随机性因子及确定性因子;总结了植物PVA研究的方法步骤及采用的模拟模型;探讨了植物PVA的难点,PVA对管理措施的评价效果;并提出对今后植物PVA的研究展望,认为PVA是研究濒危植物种群灭绝及评价管理或保护措施的有力工具;发展描述复杂种间关系的多种种的PVA模型以及包含多个影响因素的PVA应用模型是未来植物PVA的研究方向。     

Conservation genetics of the Critically Endangered Saint Croix ground lizard (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ameiva polops</Emphasis> Cope 1863)

The Saint Croix ground lizard (Ameiva polops) is a Critically Endangered species endemic to Saint Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands. Although it is completely extirpated from Saint Croix Island (last seen in 1968), two small natural satellite populations survive on two islets off St. Croix: one on Protestant Cay (estimated at ~30 individuals in 2002); and one on Green Cay (estimated at ~180 individuals in 2002). Two additional small populations exist that were founded with individuals translocated from the two surviving natural populations. One is on Ruth Island, a man-made islet off St. Croix, founded in 1990 with 10 individuals from Protestant Cay. The other is on Buck Island, ~2.5 km from Saint Croix, founded in 2008 with 57 individuals from Green Cay. All populations are vulnerable to catastrophic events such as hurricanes, sea level rise, introduction of exotic species, and landscape transformation. Herein, we used mitochondrial and nuclear-microsatellite markers to examine levels of genetic diversity within extant populations of A. polops and the degree of genetic differentiation among them. We also conducted analyses to search for signatures of recent bottlenecks in these populations and to estimate their effective population size (N _e ). We found low genetic variability within populations of this lizard, comparable to that observed in other threatened vertebrates. We also found significant genetic differentiation among the three populations examined, as well as signatures of recent bottlenecks and critically low N _e values in all populations. Based on our results, we suggest two different conservation units for A. polops: (1) Green Cay and its replicate population at Buck Island; and (2) Protestant Cay and its replicate population at Ruth Island. We discuss the implications of our findings on the conservation and management of A. polops.     

Genetic mark-recapture analysis of winter faecal pellets allows estimation of population size in Sage Grouse Centrocercus urophasianus

The Sage Grouse Centrocercus urophasianus is a species of conservation concern throughout its range in western North America. Since the 1950s, the high count of males at leks has been used as an index for monitoring populations. However, the relationship between this lek-count index and population size is unclear, and its reliability for assessing population trends has been questioned. We used non-invasive genetic mark-recapture analysis of faecal and feather samples to estimate pre-breeding population size for the Parachute-Piceance-Roan, a small, geographically isolated population of Sage Grouse in western Colorado, during two consecutive winters from 2012 to 2014. We estimated total pre-breeding population size as 335 (95% confidence interval (CI): 287–382) in the first winter and 745 (95% CI: 627–864) in the second, an approximate doubling in abundance between years. Although we also observed a large increase in the spring lek-count index between those years, high male count data poorly represented mark-recapture estimates of male abundance in each year. Our data suggest that lek counts are useful for detecting the direction and magnitude of large changes in Sage Grouse abundance over time but they may not reliably reflect small changes in abundance that may be relevant to small populations of conservation concern.     

Population Estimation Techniques for Lekking Species

Abstract: With the decline of many lekking species, the need to develop a rigorous population estimation technique is critical for successful conservation and management. We employed mark—resight methods to estimate population size for 2 lekking species: greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus). We evaluated 2 different estimators: Bowden's estimator and the mixed logit-normal mark—resight model. We captured and marked 75 greater sage-grouse. We counted marked and unmarked birds as they attended 15 known leks. We used 36 and 37 marked Gunnison sage-grouse to estimate population size in 2003 and 2004, respectively. We observed marked and unmarked Gunnison sage-grouse daily as they attended 6 leks in 2003 and 3 leks in 2004. Based on our examination of the assumptions of each mark—resight estimator, relative to behavior and biology of these species, we concluded the mixed logit-normal mark—resight model is preferred. We recommend wildlife managers employ mark—resight approaches when statistically rigorous population estimates are required for management and conservation of lekking species.     

Correlated recovery of five lizard populations following eradication of invasive mammals

Many conservation decisions rely on the assumption that multiple populations will respond similarly to management. However, few attempts have been made to evaluate indicators of population trends (i.e. population indicator species). Eradication of introduced mammals from offshore islands is a commonly used management technique for conservation of native taxa in New Zealand. Pacific rats and rabbits were eradicated from Korapuki Island in 1986/1987 enabling population recovery of native species that had been suppressed by predation or competition. However, the degree to which species’ responses were correlated has not been evaluated. We investigated correlations among lizard population trends on Korapuki Island as a test of the population indicator species concept. Our dataset consisted of captures of the five resident lizard species (three skinks, two geckos) from biannual pitfall trapping over a 10 year period (1986–1995) immediately following rodent eradication. We used a Bayesian modelling approach to examine correlations in population trends (based on mean annual counts) between species. Population trends were positively correlated for all species pairs (substantively for 90 % of pairs) and we detected no negative correlations. Systematic searches for single lizard species may indicate correlated recovery of lizard populations following rodent eradication and provide a cost-effective alternative to traditional ‘whole community’ monitoring. Our findings support evidence-based use of the population indicator species concept in cases where a shared ecological driver can be identified.     

Considering threats to population viability of the endangered Korean long-tailed goral (Naemorhedus caudatus) using VORTEX

Population viability analysis (PVA) has frequently been used in conservation biology to predict extinction rates for threatened or endangered species. In this study, we used VORTEX to model Korean long-tailed goral (Naemorhedus caudatus) using previously collected ecological data. We focused on modelling population extinction, mean population size and heterozygosity. The minimum viable population size was found to be at least 50 gorals for 100 years, regardless of carrying capacity. However, populations with fewer than 50 gorals could not remain successful in the model. Inbreeding depression, catastrophes and supplementation also affected patterns of population extinction, mean population size and heterozygosity. Supplementation with new individuals had the strongest effect on extinction, mean population size and heterozygosity, followed by initial population size, inbreeding, catastrophes and carrying capacity. These results suggest that a supplementation by extra goral individuals from goral proliferation facilities would be the most helpful means for the restoration programme. More Korean goral-specific information regarding demographic and habitat parameters is needed for further PVA of the species.     

Vulnerable island carnivores: the endangered endemic dwarf procyonids from Cozumel Island

Insular carnivores represent some of the most critically threatened species, but also the least known. To evaluate the conservation status of these species, thorough abundance estimates are urgently required. To better understand the population biology and conservation status of the endemic and threatened pygmy raccoon (Procyon pygmaeus) and dwarf coati (Nasua nelsoni) on Cozumel Island, Mexico, we worked island-wide to identify the presence of these species, and for the pygmy raccoon we studied several populations in depth during 2001–2003. On Cozumel, trapping was conducted for >6,600 trap nights in 19 locations of varying habitat types. A total of 96 pygmy raccoons (47 males and 49 females) and a single adult, male dwarf coati (N. nelsoni) were captured. Estimated total annual pygmy raccoon population size ± SE was 80 ± 26.1, resulting in an average density of 22 ± 5.1 raccoons/km² for the three small sites where the animals persist. Based in part on the findings of this study that indicate these species have a restricted range and small population numbers, the IUCN recently changed the listing of the pygmy raccoon to Critically Endangered from Endangered. In contrast, the status of the dwarf coati (Endangered) has not been changed, although the taxon is in eminent danger of extinction and in need of immediate conservation action.     

Phylogeography of the Temminck’s Stint (Calidris temminckii): historical vicariance but little present genetic structure in a regionally endangered Palearctic wader

Aim We study the population differentiation and phylogeography of the Temminck’s Stint (Calidris temminckii). Specifically, we seek signs of past and present population size changes and dispersal events and evaluate management and conservation unit status of the populations. We also study the possibility of introgression as the origin of two mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) lineages found and estimate the divergence time of the lineages. Location Northern Eurasia. Methods We analysed 583 bp of mtDNA control region domains I and II and 11 microsatellite loci from 13 localities throughout the breeding range. In addition, we used mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI), a barcoding gene, to search for signs of introgression. Results More population differentiation was found from microsatellites than from mtDNA, although differentiation was weak in both markers. Signs of past population growth were observed, in addition to more recent decline in some areas. Both control region and COI sequences revealed two maternal lineages coexisting in Fennoscandia and in north‐west Siberia. No signs of introgression were detected. Lineage divergence time was estimated to have occurred during the glacial periods of Pleistocene. Main conclusions Slight differences in mtDNA and microsatellite differentiation and diversity may reflect different features – such as the mutation rate and effective population size – of the markers used, or female‐biased dispersal pattern and high male site‐fidelity of the species. The coexistence of the two mitochondrial lineages is most likely a consequence of post‐glacial mixing of two refugial Pleistocene populations. Based on genetic information alone, global conservation concerns are not imminent. However, fast decline of a marginal Bothnian Bay population and the smallness and remoteness of a Central Yakutian population warrant conservation actions.     

Nestboxes and immigration drive the growth of an urban Peregrine Falcon Falco peregrinus population

Drivers of wildlife population dynamics are generally numerous and interacting. Some of these drivers may impact demographic processes that are difficult to estimate, such as immigration into the focal population. Populations may furthermore be small and subject to demographic stochasticity. All of these factors contribute to blur the causal relationship between past management action and current population trends. The urban Peregrine Falcon Falco peregrinus population in Cape Town, South Africa, increased from three pairs in 1997 to 18 pairs in 2010. Nestboxes were installed over this period to manage the interface between new urban pairs of Falcons and the human users of colonized buildings, and incidentally to improve breeding success. We used integrated population models (IPMs) formally to combine information from a capture–mark–recapture study, monitoring of reproductive success and counts of population size. As all local demographic processes were directly observed, the IPM approach also allowed us to estimate immigration by difference. The provision of nestboxes, as a possible stimulant of population growth, improved breeding success and accounted for an estimated 3–26% of the population increase. The most important driver of growth, however, was immigration. Despite low sample sizes, the IPM approach allowed us to obtain relatively precise estimates of the population‐level impact of nestbox deployment. The goal of conservation interventions is often to increase population size, so the effectiveness of such interventions should ideally be assessed at the population level. IPMs are powerful tools in this context for combining demographic information that may be limited due to small population size or practical constraints on monitoring. Our study quantitatively documented both the immigration process that led to growth of a small population and the effect of a management action that helped the process.     

Large‐scale predator control increases population viability of a rare New Zealand riverine duck

The introduction of mammalian predators to oceanic islands has led to dramatic declines in the abundance of many native species. Conservation management of these species often relies on low‐cost predator control techniques that can be implemented over large scales. Assessing the effectiveness of such management techniques is difficult, but using population viability analyses (PVA), which identify the population growth rate (λ) and extinction risk of threatened species, may offer a solution. PVA provide the opportunity to compare the relative effectiveness of various management options and can identify knowledge gaps to prioritize research efforts. We used PVA to assess the population viability of whio (Hymenolaimus malacorhynchos), a rare riverine duck endemic to New Zealand. Current populations are threatened by introduced mammalian predators and are rapidly declining in both distribution and abundance. Whio conservation management is dominated by large‐scale, low‐intensity predator control, targeting introduced stoats (Mustela erminea). There is evidence that such control increases whio productivity but it is unknown if this increase is sufficient for long‐term population persistence. We undertook a stochastic PVA to assess the viability of whio populations under different management scenarios using data obtained from a 6‐year study of whio demographic responses to predator control. Populations with no predator control and low productivity will rapidly decline to extinction. Increasing productivity through predator control increased population viability but populations still showed a declining trajectory. A perturbation analysis showed that the growth rate of whio populations was largely driven by adult survival. Therefore, future research should target obtaining more robust estimates of adult survival, particularly how it is affected by predator control. Overall, our analysis indicated that large‐scale predator control increases the short‐term viability of whio populations but is insufficient for long‐term population persistence.     

Effective number of white shark (Carcharodon carcharias,Linnaeus) breeders is stable over four successive years in the population adjacent to eastern Australia and New Zealand

Population size is a central parameter for conservation; however, monitoring abundance is often problematic for threatened marine species. Despite substantial investment in research, many marine species remain data‐poor presenting barriers to the evaluation of conservation management outcomes and the modeling of future solutions. Such is the case for the white shark (Carcharodon carcharias), a highly mobile apex predator for whom recent and substantial population declines have been recorded in many globally distributed populations. Here, we estimate the effective number of breeders that successfully contribute offspring in one reproductive cycle (Nb) to provide a snapshot of recent reproductive effort in an east Australian–New Zealand population of white shark. Nb was estimated over four consecutive age cohorts (2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013) using two genetic estimators (linkage disequilibrium; LD and sibship assignment; SA) based on genetic data derived from two types of genetic markers (single nucleotide polymorphisms; SNPs and microsatellite loci). While estimates of Nb using different marker types produced comparable estimates, microsatellite loci were the least precise. The LD and SA estimates of Nb within cohorts using SNPs were comparable; for example, the 2013 age cohort Nb(SA) was 289 (95% CI 200–461) and Nb(LD) was 208.5 (95% CI 116.4–712.7). We show that over the time period studied, Nb was stable and ranged between 206.1 (SD ± 45.9) and 252.0 (SD ± 46.7) per year using a combined estimate of Nb(LD+SA) from SNP loci. In addition, a simulation approach showed that in this population the effective population size (Ne) per generation can be expected to be larger than Nb per reproductive cycle. This study demonstrates how breeding population size can be monitored over time to provide insight into the effectiveness of recovery and conservation measures for the white shark, where the methods described here may be applicable to other data‐poor species of conservation concern.     

Habitat use and ecology of Wattled Curassows on islands in the lower Caquetá River,Colombia

ABSTRACT Despite being endangered, little is known about the natural history and habitat use of Wattled Curassows (Crax globulosa). From September 2008 to March 2009, we examined habitat associations of this species on three islands in the lower Caquetá River, Colombia. Observations of curassows were made during line‐transect walks, and habitat variables were measured at points where curassows were and were not observed along those transects to assess potential habitat preferences. A total of 182 sightings yielded encounter rates ranging from 0.1 to 0.89 observations/km across transects. Curassows were more likely to be observed close to the river and to lakes on the islands. Additionally, the importance of the river increased as the distance to internal water sources increased. Other habitat characteristics, including tree density, tree diameter, understory density, and canopy cover, did not differ between areas where Wattled Curassows were and were not observed. Flock size ranged from 1 to 9 individuals; most solitary individuals were males and flocks (>2 individuals) generally consisted of more females than males. The association of Wattled Curassows with water sources during the low‐water season may have conservation implications because it could increase their vulnerability to anthropogenic activities such as agricultural activities, fishing, and hunting. As a result, conservation of these curassows on islands in the lower Caquetá River will likely depend on local support.     

RISK OF EXTIRPATION OF STELLER SEA LIONS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS: A POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS BASED ON ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES FOR WHY SEA LIONS DECLINED IN WESTERN ALASKA

We estimated the risk that the Steller sea lion will be extirpated in western Alaska using a population viability analysis (PVA) that combined simulations with statistically fitted models of historical population dynamics. Our analysis considered the roles that density‐dependent and density‐independent factors may have played in the past, and how they might influence future population dynamics. It also established functional relationships between population size, population growth rate and the risk of extinction under alternative hypotheses about population regulation and environmental variability. These functional relationships can be used to develop recovery criteria and guide research and management decisions. Life table parameters (e.g., birth and survival rates) operating during the population decline (1978–2002) were estimated by fitting simple age‐structured models to time‐series of pup and non‐pup counts from 33 rookeries (subpopulations). The PVA was carried out by projecting all 33 subpopulations into the future using these estimated site‐specific life tables (with associated uncertainties) and different assumptions about carrying capacities and the presence or absence of density‐dependent population regulation. Results suggest that the overall predicted risk of extirpation of Steller sea lions as a species in western Alaska was low in the next 100 yr under all scenarios explored. However, most subpopulations of Steller sea lions had high probabilities of going extinct within the next 100 yr if trends observed during the 1990s were to continue. Two clusters of contiguous subpopulations occurring in the Unimak Pass area in the western Gulf of Alaska/eastern Aleutian Islands and the Seguam–Adak region in the central Aleutian Islands had relatively lower risks of extinction. Risks of extinction for a number of subpopulations in the Gulf of Alaska were reduced if the increases observed since the late 1990s continue into the future. The risks of subpopulations going extinct were small when density‐dependent compensation in birth and survival rates was assumed, even when random stochasticity in these vital rates was introduced.