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1.
Estimates of global riverine nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions contain great uncertainty. We conducted a meta‐analysis incorporating 169 observations from published literature to estimate global riverine N2O emission rates and emission factors. Riverine N2O flux was significantly correlated with NH4, NO3 and DIN (NH4 + NO3) concentrations, loads and yields. The emission factors EF(a) (i.e., the ratio of N2O emission rate and DIN load) and EF(b) (i.e., the ratio of N2O and DIN concentrations) values were comparable and showed negative correlations with nitrogen concentration, load and yield and water discharge, but positive correlations with the dissolved organic carbon : DIN ratio. After individually evaluating 82 potential regression models based on EF(a) or EF(b) for global, temperate zone and subtropical zone datasets, a power function of DIN yield multiplied by watershed area was determined to provide the best fit between modeled and observed riverine N2O emission rates (EF(a): R2 = 0.92 for both global and climatic zone models, n = 70; EF(b): R2 = 0.91 for global model and R2 = 0.90 for climatic zone models, n = 70). Using recent estimates of DIN loads for 6400 rivers, models estimated global riverine N2O emission rates of 29.6–35.3 (mean = 32.2) Gg N2O–N yr−1 and emission factors of 0.16–0.19% (mean = 0.17%). Global riverine N2O emission rates are forecasted to increase by 35%, 25%, 18% and 3% in 2050 compared to the 2000s under the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment's Global Orchestration, Order from Strength, Technogarden, and Adapting Mosaic scenarios, respectively. Previous studies may overestimate global riverine N2O emission rates (300–2100 Gg N2O–N yr−1) because they ignore declining emission factor values with increasing nitrogen levels and channel size, as well as neglect differences in emission factors corresponding to different nitrogen forms. Riverine N2O emission estimates will be further enhanced through refining emission factor estimates, extending measurements longitudinally along entire river networks and improving estimates of global riverine nitrogen loads. 相似文献
2.
《Global Change Biology Bioenergy》2018,10(3):150-164
Perennial bioenergy crops have significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to climate change mitigation by substituting for fossil fuels; yet delivering significant GHG savings will require substantial land‐use change, globally. Over the last decade, research has delivered improved understanding of the environmental benefits and risks of this transition to perennial bioenergy crops, addressing concerns that the impacts of land conversion to perennial bioenergy crops could result in increased rather than decreased GHG emissions. For policymakers to assess the most cost‐effective and sustainable options for deployment and climate change mitigation, synthesis of these studies is needed to support evidence‐based decision making. In 2015, a workshop was convened with researchers, policymakers and industry/business representatives from the UK, EU and internationally. Outcomes from global research on bioenergy land‐use change were compared to identify areas of consensus, key uncertainties, and research priorities. Here, we discuss the strength of evidence for and against six consensus statements summarising the effects of land‐use change to perennial bioenergy crops on the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and water, in the context of the whole life‐cycle of bioenergy production. Our analysis suggests that the direct impacts of dedicated perennial bioenergy crops on soil carbon and nitrous oxide are increasingly well understood and are often consistent with significant life cycle GHG mitigation from bioenergy relative to conventional energy sources. We conclude that the GHG balance of perennial bioenergy crop cultivation will often be favourable, with maximum GHG savings achieved where crops are grown on soils with low carbon stocks and conservative nutrient application, accruing additional environmental benefits such as improved water quality. The analysis reported here demonstrates there is a mature and increasingly comprehensive evidence base on the environmental benefits and risks of bioenergy cultivation which can support the development of a sustainable bioenergy industry. 相似文献
3.
The potential to mitigate global warming with no-tillage management is only realized when practised in the long term 总被引:15,自引:0,他引:15
Johan Six † Stephen M. Ogle† F. Jay breidt‡ Rich T. Conant† Arvin R. Mosier§ Keith Paustian†¶ 《Global Change Biology》2004,10(2):155-160
No‐tillage (NT) management has been promoted as a practice capable of offsetting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because of its ability to sequester carbon in soils. However, true mitigation is only possible if the overall impact of NT adoption reduces the net global warming potential (GWP) determined by fluxes of the three major biogenic GHGs (i.e. CO2, N2O, and CH4). We compiled all available data of soil‐derived GHG emission comparisons between conventional tilled (CT) and NT systems for humid and dry temperate climates. Newly converted NT systems increase GWP relative to CT practices, in both humid and dry climate regimes, and longer‐term adoption (>10 years) only significantly reduces GWP in humid climates. Mean cumulative GWP over a 20‐year period is also reduced under continuous NT in dry areas, but with a high degree of uncertainty. Emissions of N2O drive much of the trend in net GWP, suggesting improved nitrogen management is essential to realize the full benefit from carbon storage in the soil for purposes of global warming mitigation. Our results indicate a strong time dependency in the GHG mitigation potential of NT agriculture, demonstrating that GHG mitigation by adoption of NT is much more variable and complex than previously considered, and policy plans to reduce global warming through this land management practice need further scrutiny to ensure success. 相似文献
4.
Growing biomass feedstocks from marginal lands is becoming an increasingly attractive choice for producing biofuel as an alternative energy to fossil fuels. Here, we used a biogeochemical model at ecosystem scale to estimate crop productivity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from bioenergy crops grown on marginal lands in the United States. Two broadly tested cellulosic crops, switchgrass, and Miscanthus, were assumed to be grown on the abandoned land and mixed crop‐vegetation land with marginal productivity. Production of biomass and biofuel as well as net carbon exchange and nitrous oxide emissions were estimated in a spatially explicit manner. We found that, cellulosic crops, especially Miscanthus could produce a considerable amount of biomass, and the effective ethanol yield is high on these marginal lands. For every hectare of marginal land, switchgrass and Miscanthus could produce 1.0–2.3 kl and 2.9–6.9 kl ethanol, respectively, depending on nitrogen fertilization rate and biofuel conversion efficiency. Nationally, both crop systems act as net GHG sources. Switchgrass has high global warming intensity (100–390 g CO2eq l?1 ethanol), in terms of GHG emissions per unit ethanol produced. Miscanthus, however, emits only 21–36 g CO2eq to produce every liter of ethanol. To reach the mandated cellulosic ethanol target in the United States, growing Miscanthus on the marginal lands could potentially save land and reduce GHG emissions in comparison to growing switchgrass. However, the ecosystem modeling is still limited by data availability and model deficiencies, further efforts should be made to classify crop‐specific marginal land availability, improve model structure, and better integrate ecosystem modeling into life cycle assessment. 相似文献
5.
Lishan Tan Zhenming Ge Xuhui Zhou Shihua Li Xiuzhen Li Jianwu Tang 《Global Change Biology》2020,26(3):1638-1653
Land‐use/land‐cover change (LULCC) often results in degradation of natural wetlands and affects the dynamics of greenhouse gases (GHGs). However, the magnitude of changes in GHG emissions from wetlands undergoing various LULCC types remains unclear. We conducted a global meta‐analysis with a database of 209 sites to examine the effects of LULCC types of constructed wetlands (CWs), croplands (CLs), aquaculture ponds (APs), drained wetlands (DWs), and pastures (PASs) on the variability in CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from the natural coastal wetlands, riparian wetlands, and peatlands. Our results showed that the natural wetlands were net sinks of atmospheric CO2 and net sources of CH4 and N2O, exhibiting the capacity to mitigate greenhouse effects due to negative comprehensive global warming potentials (GWPs; ?0.9 to ?8.7 t CO2‐eq ha?1 year?1). Relative to the natural wetlands, all LULCC types (except CWs from coastal wetlands) decreased the net CO2 uptake by 69.7%?456.6%, due to a higher increase in ecosystem respiration relative to slight changes in gross primary production. The CWs and APs significantly increased the CH4 emissions compared to those of the coastal wetlands. All LULCC types associated with the riparian wetlands significantly decreased the CH4 emissions. When the peatlands were converted to the PASs, the CH4 emissions significantly increased. The CLs, as well as DWs from peatlands, significantly increased the N2O emissions in the natural wetlands. As a result, all LULCC types (except PASs from riparian wetlands) led to remarkably higher GWPs by 65.4%?2,948.8%, compared to those of the natural wetlands. The variability in GHG fluxes with LULCC was mainly sensitive to changes in soil water content, water table, salinity, soil nitrogen content, soil pH, and bulk density. This study highlights the significant role of LULCC in increasing comprehensive GHG emissions from global natural wetlands, and our results are useful for improving future models and manipulative experiments. 相似文献
6.
Soil-atmosphere exchange of CH4, CO2, NOx,and N2O in the Colorado shortgrass steppe under elevated CO2 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
In late March 1997, an open-top-chamber (OTC) CO2 enrichment study was begun in the Colorado shortgrass steppe. The main objectives of the study were to determine the effect of elevated CO2 (720 mol mol–1) on plant production, photosynthesis, and water use of this mixed C3/C4 plant community, soil nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) cycling and the impact of changes induced by CO2 on trace gas exchange. From this study, we report here our weekly measurements of CO2, CH4, NOx and N2O fluxes within control (unchambered), ambient CO2 and elevated CO2 OTCs. Soil water and temperature were measured at each flux measurement time from early April 1997, year round, through October 2000. Even though both C3 and C4 plant biomass increased under elevated CO2 and soil moisture content was typically higher than under ambient CO2 conditions, none of the trace gas fluxes were significantly altered by CO2 enrichment. Over the 43 month period of observation NOx and N2O flux averaged 4.3 and 1.7 in ambient and 4.1 and 1.7 g N m–2 hr –1 in elevated CO2 OTCs, respectively. NOx flux was negatively correlated to plant biomass production. Methane oxidation rates averaged –31 and –34 g C m–2 hr–1 and ecosystem respiration averaged 43 and 44 mg C m–2 hr–1 under ambient and elevated CO2, respectively, over the same time period. 相似文献
7.
- Changes in climate are causing floods to occur more often and more intensely in many parts of the world, including agricultural landscapes of southern Wisconsin (U.S.A.). How flooding and greater flood frequency affect stream carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) fluxes and concentrations is not obvious. Thus, we asked how diffusive fluxes of CO2 and CH4 varied over time, particularly in response to floods, in agricultural streams, and what were likely causes for observed flood responses.
- We measured concentrations and diffusive fluxes of CO2 and CH4 at 10 stream sites in mixed agricultural and suburban catchments in southern Wisconsin (U.S.A.) during the growing season (March–November) in a year that experienced multiple floods. Habitat, hydrologic, and water chemistry attributes were also quantified to determine likely drivers of changes in gas concentrations and fluxes.
- Habitat and water chemistry, as well as CO2 and CH4 concentrations and fluxes were temporally erratic and lacked any seasonality. Carbon dioxide and CH4 concentrations and fluxes were higher during floods along with increased water velocity, turbidity, and dissolved organic carbon and decreases in dissolved oxygen, soft sediment depth, and macrophyte cover.
- Increased gas concentrations and fluxes were probably due to flushing of gases from soils, respiration of organic matter in the channel, and increased gas exchange velocities during floods.
- Flooding alleviated both supply and transfer limits on CO2 and CH4 emissions in these agricultural streams, and frequent and prolonged flooding during the growing season led to sustained high emissions from these streams. We hypothesise that such persistent increases in emissions during floods may be a common response to high precipitation periods for many agricultural streams.
8.
全球变暖已引起人们的广泛关注,大气温室效应气体浓度增加是导致全球变暖的主要因素之一,土壤是温室效应气体的主要来源.反过来,全球变暖对土壤温室气体的排放具有反馈作用.温度升高不仅会影响植物、动物、微生物的生长及其相互作用,还会影响土壤的物质(尤其是氮、碳)循环过程,从而影响土壤温室效应气体的排放.本文主要总结了增温对土壤... 相似文献
9.
Deepak Rajagopal 《Global Change Biology Bioenergy》2016,8(2):471-480
A reason for much pessimism about the environmental benefits of today's biofuels, essentially corn and sugarcane ethanol, is the so‐called indirect land‐use change (ILUC) emissions associated with expanding biofuel production. While there exist several simulation‐based estimates of indirect emissions, the empirical basis underlying key input parameters to such simulations is not beyond doubt, while empirical verification of indirect emissions is hard. Regardless, regulators have adopted global warming intensity ratings for biofuels based on those simulations and in some case are holding regulated firms accountable for (some forms of) leakage. Suffice to say that both the estimates of and the approach to regulating leakage are controversial. The objective of this study is therefore to review a wider economic in order to identify a broader set of policy options for mitigating emissions leakage. We find that controlling leakage by affixing responsibility to regulated firms lacks support in the broader literature, which emphasizes alternative approaches. 相似文献
10.
Fabrizio Sabba Cristian Picioreanu Robert Nerenberg 《Biotechnology and bioengineering》2017,114(12):2753-2761
11.
Yanghui He Xuhui Zhou Liling Jiang Ming Li Zhenggang Du Guiyao Zhou Junjiong Shao Xihua Wang Zhihong Xu Shahla Hosseini Bai Helen Wallace Chengyuan Xu 《Global Change Biology Bioenergy》2017,9(4):743-755
Biochar application to soils may increase carbon (C) sequestration due to the inputs of recalcitrant organic C. However, the effects of biochar application on the soil greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes appear variable among many case studies; therefore, the efficacy of biochar as a carbon sequestration agent for climate change mitigation remains uncertain. We performed a meta‐analysis of 91 published papers with 552 paired comparisons to obtain a central tendency of three main GHG fluxes (i.e., CO2, CH4, and N2O) in response to biochar application. Our results showed that biochar application significantly increased soil CO2 fluxes by 22.14%, but decreased N2O fluxes by 30.92% and did not affect CH4 fluxes. As a consequence, biochar application may significantly contribute to an increased global warming potential (GWP) of total soil GHG fluxes due to the large stimulation of CO2 fluxes. However, soil CO2 fluxes were suppressed when biochar was added to fertilized soils, indicating that biochar application is unlikely to stimulate CO2 fluxes in the agriculture sector, in which N fertilizer inputs are common. Responses of soil GHG fluxes mainly varied with biochar feedstock source and soil texture and the pyrolysis temperature of biochar. Soil and biochar pH, biochar applied rate, and latitude also influence soil GHG fluxes, but to a more limited extent. Our findings provide a scientific basis for developing more rational strategies toward widespread adoption of biochar as a soil amendment for climate change mitigation. 相似文献
12.
J. K. HUGHES A. J. LLOYD C. HUNTINGFORD J. W. FINCH R. J. HARDING 《Global Change Biology Bioenergy》2010,2(2):79-88
A process‐based model of the energy crop Miscanthus×giganteus is integrated into the global climate impact model IMOGEN, simulating the potential of large‐scale Miscanthus plantation to offset fossil fuel emissions during the 21st century. This simulation produces spatially explicit, annual projections of Miscanthus yields from the present day to the year 2100 under an SRES A2 anthropogenic emissions scenario and includes the effects of climate change. IMOGEN also simulates natural vegetation and soil carbon storage throughout the 21st century. The benefit of Miscanthus cultivation (avoiding fossil fuel emissions of CO2) is then compared with the cost of displacing natural vegetation (carbon emissions from vegetation and soil). The time taken for these effects to cancel out, the pay‐back time, is calculated regionally. The effects of large‐scale Miscanthus plantation are then integrated globally to produce an estimate of atmospheric CO2 concentrations throughout the 21st century. Our best estimate of the pay‐back time for Miscanthus plantation is 30 years. We project a maximum possible reduction in atmospheric CO2 of 323 ppmv by the end of 21st century, with a reduction of 162 ppmv corresponding to the best estimate scenario. 相似文献
13.
14.
Nitrification inhibitors show promise in decreasing nitrous oxide (N2O) emission from agricultural systems worldwide, but they may be much less effective than previously thought when both direct and indirect emissions are taken into account. Whilst nitrification inhibitors are effective at decreasing direct N2O emission and nitrate (NO3–) leaching, limited studies suggest that they may increase ammonia (NH3) volatilization and, subsequently, indirect N2O emission. These dual effects are typically not considered when evaluating the inhibitors as a climate change mitigation tool. Here, we collate results from the literature that simultaneously examined the effects of nitrification inhibitors on N2O and NH3 emissions. We found that nitrification inhibitors decreased direct N2O emission by 0.2–4.5 kg N2O‐N ha?1 (8–57%), but generally increased NH3 emission by 0.2–18.7 kg NH3‐N ha?1 (3–65%). Taking into account the estimated indirect N2O emission from deposited NH3, the overall impact of nitrification inhibitors ranged from ?4.5 (reduction) to +0.5 (increase) kg N2O‐N ha?1. Our results suggest that the beneficial effect of nitrification inhibitors in decreasing direct N2O emission can be undermined or even outweighed by an increase in NH3 volatilization. 相似文献
15.
Hanqin Tian Jia Yang Rongting Xu Chaoqun Lu Josep G. Canadell Eric A. Davidson Robert B. Jackson Almut Arneth Jinfeng Chang Philippe Ciais Stefan Gerber Akihiko Ito Fortunat Joos Sebastian Lienert Palmira Messina Stefan Olin Shufen Pan Changhui Peng Eri Saikawa Rona L. Thompson Nicolas Vuichard Wilfried Winiwarter Snke Zaehle Bowen Zhang 《Global Change Biology》2019,25(2):640-659
Our understanding and quantification of global soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and the underlying processes remain largely uncertain. Here, we assessed the effects of multiple anthropogenic and natural factors, including nitrogen fertilizer (N) application, atmospheric N deposition, manure N application, land cover change, climate change, and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, on global soil N2O emissions for the period 1861–2016 using a standard simulation protocol with seven process‐based terrestrial biosphere models. Results suggest global soil N2O emissions have increased from 6.3 ± 1.1 Tg N2O‐N/year in the preindustrial period (the 1860s) to 10.0 ± 2.0 Tg N2O‐N/year in the recent decade (2007–2016). Cropland soil emissions increased from 0.3 Tg N2O‐N/year to 3.3 Tg N2O‐N/year over the same period, accounting for 82% of the total increase. Regionally, China, South Asia, and Southeast Asia underwent rapid increases in cropland N2O emissions since the 1970s. However, US cropland N2O emissions had been relatively flat in magnitude since the 1980s, and EU cropland N2O emissions appear to have decreased by 14%. Soil N2O emissions from predominantly natural ecosystems accounted for 67% of the global soil emissions in the recent decade but showed only a relatively small increase of 0.7 ± 0.5 Tg N2O‐N/year (11%) since the 1860s. In the recent decade, N fertilizer application, N deposition, manure N application, and climate change contributed 54%, 26%, 15%, and 24%, respectively, to the total increase. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration reduced soil N2O emissions by 10% through the enhanced plant N uptake, while land cover change played a minor role. Our estimation here does not account for indirect emissions from soils and the directed emissions from excreta of grazing livestock. To address uncertainties in estimating regional and global soil N2O emissions, this study recommends several critical strategies for improving the process‐based simulations. 相似文献
16.
Alona Armstrong Susan Waldron Jeanette Whitaker Nicholas J. Ostle 《Global Change Biology》2014,20(6):1699-1706
Global energy demand is increasing as greenhouse gas driven climate change progresses, making renewable energy sources critical to future sustainable power provision. Land‐based wind and solar electricity generation technologies are rapidly expanding, yet our understanding of their operational effects on biological carbon cycling in hosting ecosystems is limited. Wind turbines and photovoltaic panels can significantly change local ground‐level climate by a magnitude that could affect the fundamental plant–soil processes that govern carbon dynamics. We believe that understanding the possible effects of changes in ground‐level microclimates on these phenomena is crucial to reducing uncertainty of the true renewable energy carbon cost and to maximize beneficial effects. In this Opinions article, we examine the potential for the microclimatic effects of these land‐based renewable energy sources to alter plant–soil carbon cycling, hypothesize likely effects and identify critical knowledge gaps for future carbon research. 相似文献
17.
Chris Brown Innocent Bakam Pete Smith Robin Matthews 《Global Change Biology Bioenergy》2016,8(1):226-244
An agent‐based modelling (ABM) framework was adapted to assess bioenergy crop uptake and integrate social and economic processes with biophysical elements. Survey results indicated that economic rationalisation was intrinsic to farmers’ decision‐making, but was not the only consideration. This study presents an approach, set within an established resource management framework, to incorporate a number of key socio‐economic factors, which we call Mitigation Willingness Factors (MWFs), using survey data collected from farmers and land managers, into the ABM. The MWFs represent farmers’ willingness to compromise revenue in order to reduce GHG emissions, derived from their attitudes to climate change and the ability of different economic mechanisms to stimulate energy crop uptake. Adoption of bioenergy crops of different farmer types and farming enterprises was also assessed. Adoption rates and scenarios that take into account noneconomic factors are presented, and particular farming enterprises that may respond more positively to policy initiatives are identified. 相似文献
18.
Pieter M. F. Elshout Rosalie van Zelm Marijn van der Velde Zoran Steinmann Mark A. J. Huijbregts 《Global Change Biology Bioenergy》2019,11(6):763-772
The global demand for biofuels in the transport sector may lead to significant biodiversity impacts via multiple human pressures. Biodiversity assessments of biofuels, however, seldom simultaneously address several impact pathways, which can lead to biased comparisons with fossil fuels. The goal of the present study was to quantify the direct influence of habitat loss, water consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on potential global species richness loss due to the current production of first‐generation biodiesel from soybean and rapeseed and bioethanol from sugarcane and corn. We found that the global relative species loss due to biofuel production exceeded that of fossil petrol and diesel production in more than 90% of the locations considered. Habitat loss was the dominating stressor with Chinese corn, Brazilian soybean and Brazilian sugarcane having a particularly large biodiversity impact. Spatial variation within countries was high, with 90th percentiles differing by a factor of 9 to 22 between locations. We conclude that displacing fossil fuels with first‐generation biofuels will likely negatively affect global biodiversity, no matter which feedstock is used or where it is produced. Environmental policy may therefore focus on the introduction of other renewable options in the transport sector. 相似文献
19.
Fiona Ehrhardt Jean‐François Soussana Gianni Bellocchi Peter Grace Russel McAuliffe Sylvie Recous Renáta Sándor Pete Smith Val Snow Massimiliano de Antoni Migliorati Bruno Basso Arti Bhatia Lorenzo Brilli Jordi Doltra Christopher D. Dorich Luca Doro Nuala Fitton Sandro J. Giacomini Brian Grant Matthew T. Harrison Stephanie K. Jones Miko U. F. Kirschbaum Katja Klumpp Patricia Laville Joël Léonard Mark Liebig Mark Lieffering Raphaël Martin Raia S. Massad Elizabeth Meier Lutz Merbold Andrew D. Moore Vasileios Myrgiotis Paul Newton Elizabeth Pattey Susanne Rolinski Joanna Sharp Ward N. Smith Lianhai Wu Qing Zhang 《Global Change Biology》2018,24(2):e603-e616
Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multi‐species agricultural contexts. We report an international model comparison and benchmarking exercise, showing the potential of multi‐model ensembles to predict productivity and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions for wheat, maize, rice and temperate grasslands. Using a multi‐stage modelling protocol, from blind simulations (stage 1) to partial (stages 2–4) and full calibration (stage 5), 24 process‐based biogeochemical models were assessed individually or as an ensemble against long‐term experimental data from four temperate grassland and five arable crop rotation sites spanning four continents. Comparisons were performed by reference to the experimental uncertainties of observed yields and N2O emissions. Results showed that across sites and crop/grassland types, 23%–40% of the uncalibrated individual models were within two standard deviations (SD) of observed yields, while 42 (rice) to 96% (grasslands) of the models were within 1 SD of observed N2O emissions. At stage 1, ensembles formed by the three lowest prediction model errors predicted both yields and N2O emissions within experimental uncertainties for 44% and 33% of the crop and grassland growth cycles, respectively. Partial model calibration (stages 2–4) markedly reduced prediction errors of the full model ensemble E‐median for crop grain yields (from 36% at stage 1 down to 4% on average) and grassland productivity (from 44% to 27%) and to a lesser and more variable extent for N2O emissions. Yield‐scaled N2O emissions (N2O emissions divided by crop yields) were ranked accurately by three‐model ensembles across crop species and field sites. The potential of using process‐based model ensembles to predict jointly productivity and N2O emissions at field scale is discussed. 相似文献
20.
EDWARD M. W. SMEETS LEX F. BOUWMAN† ELKE STEHFEST† DETLEF P. van VUUREN † ADAM POSTHUMA 《Global Change Biology》2009,15(1):1-23
In this study, we analyze the impact of fertilizer‐ and manure‐induced N2O emissions due to energy crop production on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when conventional transportation fuels are replaced by first‐generation biofuels (also taking account of other GHG emissions during the entire life cycle). We calculate the nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions by applying a statistical model that uses spatial data on climate and soil. For the land use that is assumed to be replaced by energy crop production (the ‘reference land‐use system’), we explore a variety of options, the most important of which are cropland for food production, grassland, and natural vegetation. Calculations are also done in the case that emissions due to energy crop production are fully additional and thus no reference is considered. The results are combined with data on other emissions due to biofuels production that are derived from existing studies, resulting in total GHG emission reduction potentials for major biofuels compared with conventional fuels. The results show that N2O emissions can have an important impact on the overall GHG balance of biofuels, though there are large uncertainties. The most important ones are those in the statistical model and the GHG emissions not related to land use. Ethanol produced from sugar cane and sugar beet are relatively robust GHG savers: these biofuels change the GHG emissions by −103% to −60% (sugar cane) and −58% to −17% (sugar beet), compared with conventional transportation fuels and depending on the reference land‐use system that is considered. The use of diesel from palm fruit also results in a relatively constant and substantial change of the GHG emissions by −75% to −39%. For corn and wheat ethanol, the figures are −38% to 11% and −107% to 53%, respectively. Rapeseed diesel changes the GHG emissions by −81% to 72% and soybean diesel by −111% to 44%. Optimized crop management, which involves the use of state‐of‐the‐art agricultural technologies combined with an optimized fertilization regime and the use of nitrification inhibitors, can reduce N2O emissions substantially and change the GHG emissions by up to −135 percent points (pp) compared with conventional management. However, the uncertainties in the statistical N2O emission model and in the data on non‐land‐use GHG emissions due to biofuels production are large; they can change the GHG emission reduction by between −152 and 87 pp. 相似文献