How much heat can we grow in our cities? Modelling UK urban biofuel production potential

Biofuel provides a globally significant opportunity to reduce fossil fuel dependence; however, its sustainability can only be meaningfully explored for individual cases. It depends on multiple considerations including: life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, air quality impacts, food versus fuel trade‐offs, biodiversity impacts of land use change and socio‐economic impacts of energy transitions. One solution that may address many of these issues is local production of biofuel on non‐agricultural land. Urban areas drive global change, for example, they are responsible for 70% of global energy use, but are largely ignored in their resource production potential; however, underused urban greenspaces could be utilized for biofuel production near the point of consumption. This could avoid food versus fuel land conflicts in agricultural land and long‐distance transport costs, provide ecosystem service benefits to urban dwellers and increase the sustainability and resilience of cities and towns. Here, we use a Geographic Information System to identify urban greenspaces suitable for biofuel production, using exclusion criteria, in 10 UK cities. We then model production potential of three different biofuels: Miscanthus grass, short rotation coppice (SRC) willow and SRC poplar, within the greenspaces identified and extrapolate up to a UK‐scale. We demonstrate that approximately 10% of urban greenspace (3% of built‐up land) is potentially suitable for biofuel production. We estimate the potential of this to meet energy demand through heat generation, electricity and combined heat and power (CHP) operations. Our findings show that, if fully utilized, urban biofuel production could meet nearly a fifth of demand for biomass in CHP systems in the United Kingdom's climate compatible energy scenarios by 2030, with potentially similar implications for other comparable countries and regions.     

Life cycle assessment of biofuels from Jatropha curcas in West Africa: a field study

In recent years, liquid biofuels for transport have benefited from significant political support due to their potential role in curbing climate change and reducing our dependence on fossil fuels. They may also participate to rural development by providing new markets for agricultural production. However, the growth of energy crops has raised concerns due to their high consumption of conventional fuels, fertilizers and pesticides, their impacts on ecosystems and their competition for arable land with food crops. Low-input species such as Jatropha curcas , a perennial, inedible crop well adapted to semiarid regions, has received much interest as a new alternative for biofuel production, minimizing adverse effects on the environment and food supply. Here, we used life-cycle assessment to quantify the benefits of J. curcas biofuel production in West Africa in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and fossil energy use, compared with fossil diesel fuel and other biofuels. Biodiesel from J. curcas has a much higher performance than current biofuels, relative to oil-derived diesel fuels. Under West Africa conditions, J. curcas biodiesel allows a 72% saving in greenhouse gas emissions compared with conventional diesel fuel, and its energy yield (the ratio of biodiesel energy output to fossil energy input) is 4.7. J. curcas production studied is eco-compatible for the impacts under consideration and fits into the context of sustainable development.     

Implications of land class and environmental factors on life cycle GHG emissions of Miscanthus as a bioenergy feedstock

Replacement of fossil fuels with sustainably produced biomass crops for energy purposes has the potential to make progress in addressing climate change concerns, nonrenewable resource use, and energy security. The perennial grass Miscanthus is a dedicated energy crop candidate being field tested in Ontario, Canada, and elsewhere. Miscanthus could potentially be grown in areas of the province that differ substantially in terms of agricultural land class, environmental factors and current land use. These differences could significantly affect Miscanthus yields, input requirements, production practices, and the types of crops being displaced by Miscanthus establishment. This study assesses implications on life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of these differences through evaluating five Miscanthus production scenarios within the Ontario context. Emissions associated with electricity generation with Miscanthus pellets in a hypothetically retrofitted coal generating station are examined. Indirect land use change impacts are not quantified but are discussed. The net life cycle emissions for Miscanthus production varied greatly among scenarios (?90–170 kg CO₂eq per oven dry tonne of Miscanthus bales at the farm gate). In some cases, the carbon stock dynamics of the agricultural system offset the combined emissions of all other life cycle stages (i.e., production, harvest, transport, and processing of biomass). Yield and soil C of the displaced agricultural systems are key parameters affecting emissions. The systems with the highest potential to provide reductions in GHG emissions are those with high yields, or systems established on land with low soil carbon. All scenarios have substantially lower life cycle emissions (?20–190 g CO₂eq kWh^?1) compared with coal‐generated electricity (1130 g CO₂eq kWh^?1). Policy development should consider the implication of land class, environmental factors, and current land use on Miscanthus production.     

An integrative modeling framework to evaluate the productivity and sustainability of biofuel crop production systems

The potential expansion of biofuel production raises food, energy, and environmental challenges that require careful assessment of the impact of biofuel production on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, soil erosion, nutrient loading, and water quality. In this study, we describe a spatially explicit integrative modeling framework (SEIMF) to understand and quantify the environmental impacts of different biomass cropping systems. This SEIMF consists of three major components: (1) a geographic information system (GIS)‐based data analysis system to define spatial modeling units with resolution of 56 m to address spatial variability, (2) the biophysical and biogeochemical model Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) applied in a spatially‐explicit way to predict biomass yield, GHG emissions, and other environmental impacts of different biofuel crops production systems, and (3) an evolutionary multiobjective optimization algorithm for exploring the trade‐offs between biofuel energy production and unintended ecosystem‐service responses. Simple examples illustrate the major functions of the SEIMF when applied to a nine‐county Regional Intensive Modeling Area (RIMA) in SW Michigan to (1) simulate biofuel crop production, (2) compare impacts of management practices and local ecosystem settings, and (3) optimize the spatial configuration of different biofuel production systems by balancing energy production and other ecosystem‐service variables. Potential applications of the SEIMF to support life cycle analysis and provide information on biodiversity evaluation and marginal‐land identification are also discussed. The SEIMF developed in this study is expected to provide a useful tool for scientists and decision makers to understand sustainability issues associated with the production of biofuels at local, regional, and national scales.     

GHG emissions and other environmental impacts of indirect land use change mitigation

The implementation of measures to increase productivity and resource efficiency in food and bioenergy chains as well as to more sustainably manage land use can significantly increase the biofuel production potential while limiting the risk of causing indirect land use change (ILUC). However, the application of these measures may influence the greenhouse gas (GHG) balance and other environmental impacts of agricultural and biofuel production. This study applies a novel, integrated approach to assess the environmental impacts of agricultural and biofuel production for three ILUC mitigation scenarios, representing a low, medium and high miscanthus‐based ethanol production potential, and for three agricultural intensification pathways in terms of sustainability in Lublin province in 2020. Generally, the ILUC mitigation scenarios attain lower net annual emissions compared to a baseline scenario that excludes ILUC mitigation and bioethanol production. However, the reduction potential significantly depends on the intensification pathway considered. For example, in the moderate ILUC mitigation scenario, the net annual GHG emissions in the case study are 2.3 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (1.8 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) for conventional intensification and ?0.8 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (?0.6 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) for sustainable intensification, compared to 3.0 MtCO₂‐eq yr^?1 (2.3 tCO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1) in the baseline scenario. In addition, the intensification pathway is found to be more influential for the GHG balance than the ILUC mitigation scenario, indicating the importance of how agricultural intensification is implemented in practice. Furthermore, when the net emissions are included in the assessment of GHG emissions from bioenergy, the ILUC mitigation scenarios often abate GHG emissions compared to gasoline. But sustainable intensification is required to attain GHG abatement potentials of 90% or higher. A qualitative assessment of the impacts on biodiversity, water quantity and quality, soil quality and air quality also emphasizes the importance of sustainable intensification.     

Life cycle assessment of biodiesel production from microalgae in ponds

This paper analyses the potential environmental impacts and economic viability of producing biodiesel from microalgae grown in ponds. A comparative Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) study of a notional production system designed for Australian conditions was conducted to compare biodiesel production from algae (with three different scenarios for carbon dioxide supplementation and two different production rates) with canola and ULS (ultra-low sulfur) diesel. Comparisons of GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions (g CO₂-e/t km) and costs (¢/t km) are given. Algae GHG emissions (−27.6 to 18.2) compare very favourably with canola (35.9) and ULS diesel (81.2). Costs are not so favourable, with algae ranging from 2.2 to 4.8, compared with canola (4.2) and ULS diesel (3.8). This highlights the need for a high production rate to make algal biodiesel economically attractive.     

The use of life-cycle assessment to evaluate the environmental impacts of growing genetically modified, nitrogen use-efficient canola

Agriculture, particularly intensive crop production, makes a significant contribution to environmental pollution. A variety of canola ( Brassica napus ) has been genetically modified to enhance nitrogen use efficiency, effectively reducing the amount of fertilizer required for crop production. A partial life-cycle assessment adapted to crop production was used to assess the potential environmental impacts of growing genetically modified, nitrogen use-efficient (GMNUE) canola in North Dakota and Minnesota compared with a conventionally bred control variety. The analysis took into account the entire production system used to produce 1 tonne of canola. This comprised raw material extraction, processing and transportation, as well as all agricultural field operations. All emissions associated with the production of 1 tonne of canola were listed, aggregated and weighted in order to calculate the level of environmental impact. The findings show that there are a range of potential environmental benefits associated with growing GMNUE canola. These include reduced impacts on global warming, freshwater ecotoxicity, eutrophication and acidification. Given the large areas of canola grown in North America and, in particular, Canada, as well as the wide acceptance of genetically modified varieties in this area, there is the potential for GMNUE canola to reduce pollution from agriculture, with the largest reductions predicted to be in greenhouse gases and diffuse water pollution.     

Cost-effectiveness of bioethanol policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in Greece

Purpose

The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of bioethanol as regards to its carbon dioxide emissions. The production of the raw material accounts for more than 50 % of the total cost as well as having a significant part of greenhouse gases emitted during the entire process. For this reason, special emphasis is given to a change in agricultural land usage influenced by the demand of biofuel. Therefore, we have estimated the extent of policy influence according to its bioethanol cost-effectiveness. A case study on bioethanol production in an ex-sugar factory in the region of Thessaly, Greece, illustrates the above ideas.

Methods

A partial equilibrium micro-economic model of regional supply in the arable farming system of Thessaly was coupled to industrial processing sub-models of bioethanol production from beets and grains. The maximisation of total welfare determines the most suitable crop mix for farmers as well as the lowest cost configurations for industry and, eventually, the minimal level of support by the government for biofuel activity to take off. The environmental performance is assessed under the life cycle assessment (LCA) framework following three interrelated phases: data inventory, data analysis and interpretation. The economic burden to society to support the activity divided by avoided CO₂ eq. emissions indicates the bioethanol cost-effectiveness, in other words, the cost of greenhouse gases emissions savings.

Results

The integrated agro-industry model has been parametrically run for a range of biofuel capacities. A change in direct land use results in lower emissions in the agricultural phase, since energy crops are a substitute for intensive cultivations, such as cotton and corn. A change in indirect land use moderates these estimations, as it takes in account imported food crops that are replaced by energy crops in the region. The savings in cost vary around 160 euros per ton of CO₂ eq. for the basic agricultural policy scenario. The current policy that supports cotton production by means of increased coupled area payment has increased up to 30 % the cost of greenhouse gas savings due to bioethanol production.

Conclusions

An integrated model, articulating the agricultural supply of biomass with ethanol processing, maximises the total surplus that is under constraints in order to determine the cost-effectiveness for different production levels. Results demonstrate that economic performances, as well as the environmental cost-effectiveness of bioethanol, are clearly affected by the parameters of agricultural policies. Therefore, bioenergy, environmental and economic performances, when based on LCA and the conceptual change in land usage, are context dependent. Agricultural policies for decoupling subsidies from production are in favour of cultivation in biomass for energy purposes.     

Life cycle analysis of biochemical cellulosic ethanol under multiple scenarios

Cellulosic ethanol is widely believed to offer substantial environmental advantages over petroleum fuels and grain‐based ethanol, particularly in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transportation. The environmental impacts of biofuels are largely caused by precombustion activities, feedstock production and conversion facility operations. Life cycle analysis (LCA) is required to understand these impacts. This article describes a field‐to‐blending terminal LCA of cellulosic ethanol produced by biochemical conversion (hydrolysis and fermentation) using corn stover or switchgrass as feedstock. This LCA develops unique models for most elements of the biofuel production process and assigns environmental impact to different phases of production. More than 30 scenarios are evaluated, reflecting a range of feedstock, technology and scale options for near‐term and future facilities. Cellulosic ethanol, as modeled here, has the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to petroleum‐based liquid transportation fuels, though substantial uncertainty exists. Most of the conservative scenarios estimate GHG emissions of approximately 45–60 g carbon dioxide equivalent per MJ of delivered fuel (g CO₂e MJ^?1) without credit for coproducts, and 20–30 g CO₂e MJ^?1 when coproducts are considered. Under most scenarios, feedstock production, grinding and transport dominate the total GHG footprint. The most optimistic scenarios include sequestration of carbon in soil and have GHG emissions below zero g CO₂e MJ^?1, while the most pessimistic have life‐cycle GHG emissions higher than petroleum gasoline. Soil carbon changes are the greatest source of uncertainty, dominating all other sources of GHG emissions at the upper bound of their uncertainty. Many LCAs of biofuels are narrowly constrained to GHG emissions and energy; however, these narrow assessments may miss important environmental impacts. To ensure a more holistic assessment of environmental performance, a complete life cycle inventory, with over 1100 tracked material and energy flows for each scenario is provided in the online supplementary material for this article.     

Development and status of dedicated energy crops in the United States

The biofuel industry is rapidly growing because of increasing energy demand and diminishing petroleum reserves on a global scale. A multitude of biomass resources have been investigated, with high-yielding, perennial feedstocks showing the greatest potential for utilization as advanced biofuels. Government policy and economic drivers have promoted the development and commercialization of biofuel feedstocks, conversion technologies, and supply chain logistics. Research and regulations have focused on the environmental consequences of biofuels, greatly promoting systems that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and life-cycle impacts. Numerous biofuel refineries using lignocellulosic feedstocks and biomass-based triglycerides are either in production or pre-commercial development phases. Leading candidate energy crops have been identified, yet require additional efforts to realize their full potential. Advanced biofuels, complementing conventional biofuels and other renewable energy sources such as wind and solar, provide the means to substantially displace humanity’s reliance on petroleum-based energy.     

The greenhouse gas intensity and potential biofuel production capacity of maize stover harvest in the US Midwest

Agricultural residues are important sources of feedstock for a cellulosic biofuels industry that is being developed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy independence. While the US Midwest has been recognized as key to providing maize stover for meeting near‐term cellulosic biofuel production goals, there is uncertainty that such feedstocks can produce biofuels that meet federal cellulosic standards. Here, we conducted extensive site‐level calibration of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) terrestrial ecosystems model and applied the model at high spatial resolution across the US Midwest to improve estimates of the maximum production potential and greenhouse gas emissions expected from continuous maize residue‐derived biofuels. A comparison of methodologies for calculating the soil carbon impacts of residue harvesting demonstrates the large impact of study duration, depth of soil considered, and inclusion of litter carbon in soil carbon change calculations on the estimated greenhouse gas intensity of maize stover‐derived biofuels. Using the most representative methodology for assessing long‐term residue harvesting impacts, we estimate that only 5.3 billion liters per year (bly) of ethanol, or 8.7% of the near‐term US cellulosic biofuel demand, could be met under common no‐till farming practices. However, appreciably more feedstock becomes available at modestly higher emissions levels, with potential for 89.0 bly of ethanol production meeting US advanced biofuel standards. Adjustments to management practices, such as adding cover crops to no‐till management, will be required to produce sufficient quantities of residue meeting the greenhouse gas emission reduction standard for cellulosic biofuels. Considering the rapid increase in residue availability with modest relaxations in GHG reduction level, it is expected that management practices with modest benefits to soil carbon would allow considerable expansion of potential cellulosic biofuel production.     

Potential trade‐offs of employing perennial biomass crops for the bioeconomy in the EU by 2050: Impacts on agricultural markets in the EU and the world

Perennial biomass crops (PBC) are considered a crucial feedstock for sustainable biomass supply to the bioeconomy that compete less with food production compared to traditional crops. However, large‐scale development of PBC as a means to reach greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets would require not only the production on land previously not used for agriculture, but also the use of land that is currently used for agricultural production. This study aims to evaluate agricultural market impacts with biomass demand for food, feed, and PBC in four bioeconomy scenarios (“Business as usual,” “Improved relevance of bioeconomy,” “Extensive transformation to a bioeconomy,” “Extensive transformation to a bioeconomy with diet change”) to achieve a 75% GHG reduction target in the emission trading sector of the EU until 2050. We simulated bioeconomy scenarios in the energy system model TIMES‐PanEU and the agricultural sector model ESIM and conducted a sensitivity analysis considering crop yields, PBC yields, and land use options of PBC. Our results show that all bioeconomy scenarios except the one with diet change lead to increasing food prices (the average food price index increases by about 11% in the EU and 2.5%–3.0% in world markets). A combination of the transformation to a bioeconomy combined with diet change toward less animal protein in the EU is the only scenario that results in only moderately increasing food prices within the EU (+3.0%) and even falling global food prices (–6.4%). In addition, crop yield improvement and cultivation of PBC on marginal land help to reduce increases in food prices, but higher land prices are inevitable because those measures have only small effects on sparing agricultural land for PBC. For a transition to a bioeconomy that acknowledges climate mitigation targets, counter‐measures for those substantial direct and indirect impacts on agricultural markets should be taken into account.     

The potential impact of second‐generation biofuel landscapes on at‐risk species in the US

The recent increase in corn ethanol production has drawn attention to the environmental sustainability of biofuel production. Environmental assessments of second‐generation biofuel crops (SGBC) have focused primarily on greenhouse gas emissions and water quality. However, expanding the production of cellulosic biomass resources, especially those that require dedicated agricultural land, is also likely to have impacts on biodiversity. We developed an optimization framework for projecting the spatial pattern of SGBC expansion in the United States and intersected these predictions with occurrence data for at‐risk species. In particular, we focused on two candidate perennial grass feedstocks, Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), and Miscanthus × giganteus (Miscanthus). Tradeoffs between biodiversity and economic profitability are assessed using county level data sets of SGBC yield, agricultural land availability, land rents, and at‐risk species occurrences. Results show that future SGBC expansion is likely to occur outside of the Corn Belt, where conventional biofuel feedstocks are currently grown. The set of at‐risk species that could potentially be impacted is therefore likely to be different from the at‐risk species prevalent in the agroecological landscapes of the Upper Midwest that are dominated by corn and soy production. The total number and type of potentially impacted taxa is influenced by several factors, including the total demand for cellulosic biomass, the type of agricultural land used for production, and the method for defining at‐risk species. SGBC production is also concentrated in fewer counties when a national species conservation constraint is combined with a biofuel production mandate. This analysis provides a foundation for future research on species conservation in bioenergy production landscapes and highlights the importance of incorporating biodiversity into broader environmental assessments of biofuel sustainability.     

Land suitability for energy crops under scenarios of climate change and land‐use

Bioenergy is expected to play a critical role in climate change mitigation. Most integrated assessment models assume an expansion of agricultural land for cultivation of energy crops. This study examines the suitability of land for growing a range of energy crops on areas that are not required for food production, accounting for climate change impacts and conservation requirements. A global fuzzy logic model is employed to ascertain the suitable cropping areas for a number of sugar, starch and oil crops, energy grasses and short rotation tree species that could be grown specifically for energy. Two climate change scenarios are modelled (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), along with two scenarios representing the land which cannot be used for energy crops due to forest and biodiversity conservation, food agriculture and urban areas. Results indicate that 40% of the global area currently suitable for energy crops overlaps with food land and 31% overlaps with forested or protected areas, highlighting hotspots of potential land competition risks. Approximately 18.8 million km² is suitable for energy crops, to some degree, and does not overlap with protected, forested, urban or food agricultural land. Under the climate change scenario RCP8.5, this increases to 19.6 million km² by the end of the century. Broadly, climate change is projected to decrease suitable areas in southern regions and increase them in northern regions, most notably for grass crops in Russia and China, indicating that potential production areas will shift northwards which could potentially affect domestic use and trade of biomass significantly. The majority of the land which becomes suitable is in current grasslands and is just marginally or moderately suitable. This study therefore highlights the vital importance of further studies examining the carbon and ecosystem balance of this potential land‐use change, energy crop yields in sub‐optimal soil and climatic conditions and potential impacts on livelihoods.     

Ecosystem model parameterization and adaptation for sustainable cellulosic biofuel landscape design

Renewable fuel standards in the US and elsewhere mandate the production of large quantities of cellulosic biofuels with low greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints, a requirement which will likely entail extensive cultivation of dedicated bioenergy feedstock crops on marginal agricultural lands. Performance data for such systems is sparse, and non‐linear interactions between the feedstock species, agronomic management intensity, and underlying soil and land characteristics complicate the development of sustainable landscape design strategies for low‐impact commercial‐scale feedstock production. Process‐based ecosystem models are valuable for extrapolating field trial results and making predictions of productivity and associated environmental impacts that integrate the effects of spatially variable environmental factors across diverse production landscapes. However, there are few examples of ecosystem model parameterization against field trials on both prime and marginal lands or of conducting landscape‐scale analyses at sufficient resolution to capture interactions between soil type, land use, and management intensity. In this work we used a data‐diverse, multi‐criteria approach to parameterize and validate the DayCent biogeochemistry model for upland and lowland switchgrass using data on yields, soil carbon changes, and soil nitrous oxide emissions from US field trials spanning a range of climates, soil types, and management conditions. We then conducted a high‐resolution case study analysis of a real‐world cellulosic biofuel landscape in Kansas in order to estimate feedstock production potential and associated direct biogenic GHG emissions footprint. Our results suggest that switchgrass yields and emissions balance can vary greatly across a landscape large enough to supply a biorefinery in response to variations in soil type and land‐use history, but that within a given land base both of these performance factors can be widely modulated by changing management intensity. This in turn implies a large sustainable cellulosic biofuel landscape design space within which a system can be optimized to meet economic or environmental objectives.     

Impacts of land use change due to biofuel crops on carbon balance,bioenergy production,and agricultural yield,in the conterminous United States

Growing concerns about energy and the environment have led to worldwide use of bioenergy. Switching from food crops to biofuel crops is an option to meet the fast‐growing need for biofuel feedstocks. This land use change consequently affects the ecosystem carbon balance. In this study, we used a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model, to evaluate the impacts of this change on the carbon balance, bioenergy production, and agricultural yield, assuming that several land use change scenarios from corn, soybean, and wheat to biofuel crops of switchgrass and Miscanthus will occur. We found that biofuel crops have much higher net primary production (NPP) than soybean and wheat crops. When food crops from current agricultural lands were changed to different biofuel crops, the national total NPP increased in all cases by a range of 0.14–0.88 Pg C yr^?1, except while switching from corn to switchgrass when a decrease of 14% was observed. Miscanthus is more productive than switchgrass, producing about 2.5 times the NPP of switchgrass. The net carbon loss ranges from 1.0 to 6.3 Tg C yr^?1 if food crops are changed to switchgrass, and from 0.4 to 6.7 Tg C yr^?1 if changed to Miscanthus. The largest loss was observed when soybean crops were replaced with biofuel crops. Soil organic carbon increased significantly when land use changed, reaching 100 Mg C ha^?1 in biofuel crop ecosystems. When switching from food crops to Miscanthus, the per unit area croplands produced a larger amount of ethanol than that of original food crops. In comparison, the land use change from wheat to Miscanthus produced more biomass and sequestrated more carbon. Our study suggests that Miscanthus could better serve as an energy crop than food crops or switchgrass, considering both economic and environmental benefits.     

Identifying potential areas for biofuel production and evaluating the environmental effects: a case study of the James River Basin in the Midwestern United States

Biofuels are now an important resource in the United States because of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Both increased corn growth for ethanol production and perennial dedicated energy crop growth for cellulosic feedstocks are potential sources to meet the rising demand for biofuels. However, these measures may cause adverse environmental consequences that are not yet fully understood. This study 1) evaluates the long‐term impacts of increased frequency of corn in the crop rotation system on water quantity and quality as well as soil fertility in the James River Basin and 2) identifies potential grasslands for cultivating bioenergy crops (e.g. switchgrass), estimating the water quality impacts. We selected the soil and water assessment tool, a physically based multidisciplinary model, as the modeling approach to simulate a series of biofuel production scenarios involving crop rotation and land cover changes. The model simulations with different crop rotation scenarios indicate that decreases in water yield and soil nitrate nitrogen (NO₃‐N) concentration along with an increase in NO₃‐N load to stream water could justify serious concerns regarding increased corn rotations in this basin. Simulations with land cover change scenarios helped us spatially classify the grasslands in terms of biomass productivity and nitrogen loads, and we further derived the relationship of biomass production targets and the resulting nitrogen loads against switchgrass planting acreages. The suggested economically efficient (planting acreage) and environmentally friendly (water quality) planting locations and acreages can be a valuable guide for cultivating switchgrass in this basin. This information, along with the projected environmental costs (i.e. reduced water yield and increased nitrogen load), can contribute to decision support tools for land managers to seek the sustainability of biofuel development in this region.     

Greenhouse gas emissions and abatement costs of biofuel production in South Africa

Transport accounts for about one quarter of South Africa's final energy consumption. Most of the energy used is based on fossil fuels causing significant environmental burdens. This threat becomes even more dominant as a significant growth in transport demand is forecasted, especially in South Africa's economic hub, Gauteng province. The South African government has realized the potential of biofuel usage for reducing oil import dependency and greenhouse gas (GHG) and has hence developed a National Biofuels Industrial Strategy to enforce their use. However, there is limited experience in the country in commercial biofuel production and some of the proposed crops (i.e. rapeseed and sugar beet) have not been yet cultivated on a larger scale. Furthermore, there is only limited research available, looking at the feasibility of commercial scale biofuel production or abatement costs of GHG emissions. To assess the opportunities of biofuel production in South Africa, the production costs and consumer price levels of the fuels recommended by the national strategy are analysed in this article. Moreover, the lifecycle GHG emissions and mitigation costs are calculated compared to the calculated fossil fuel reference including coal to liquid (CTL) and gas to liquid (GTL) fuels. The results show that the cost for biofuel production in South Africa are currently significantly higher (between 30% and 80%) than for the reference fossil fuels. The lifecycle GHG emissions of biofuels (especially for sugar cane) are considerably lower (up to 45%) than the reference fossil GHG emissions. The resulting GHG abatement costs are between 1000 and 2500 ZAR₂₀₀₇ per saved ton of carbon dioxide equivalent, which is high compared to the current European CO₂ market prices of ca. 143 ZAR₂₀₀₇ t^?1. The analysis has shown that biofuel production and utilization in South Africa offers a significant GHG‐mitigation potential but at relatively high cost.     

Modelling regional scale biofuel scenarios – a case study for India

Biofuel initiatives in India have gained momentum with the national biofuel policy targeting 20% blending of both petrol and diesel by 2017. Most of India's biofuel plans revolve around using sugarcane for bioethanol and jatropha for biodiesel production. This study, taking the southern Indian state of Karnataka as an example, aims at estimating the potential to achieve policy targets. The study spatially analyses land‐use change owing to biofuel expansion and its effects on food production. We used an integrated modelling framework to simulate land‐use change and bioenergy production under two scenarios – Industrial Economy (IE) and Agricultural Economy (AE). Results indicate that meeting the 20% blending target is a challenging goal to achieve under both scenarios. Bioethanol requirements can be nearly fulfilled (88% under IE and 93% under AE) because of sugarcane expansion. However, biodiesel demands cannot be fulfilled using only degraded lands as currently planned in India, but additional agricultural land (3–4% of the total cropland) will be required for jatropha‐based biodiesel production. Food production will not be directly impacted until 2025, because the largest source of additional land could be short‐ and long‐term fallows. We conclude that conservation oriented initiatives, such as water harvesting and energy conservation measures can increase productivities of biofuel crops and reduce fuel demands, respectively. State support and Clean Development Mechanism opportunities can enhance economic incentives for energy cropping. Therefore, a simultaneous and multipronged approach is needed to accommodate food and fuel demands in India.     

Switchgrass in California: where,and at what price?

This article assesses the potential of California agriculture to supply biofuel feedstock in the form of switchgrass. We construct a fully calibrated, multiregion, multi‐input and multioutput model of agricultural supply for California's Central Valley based on the principles of positive mathematical programming. We exploit agronomic information obtained from a biophysical model to estimate regional production functions for switchgrass. The model predicts the extent and location of potential feedstock production in the Central Valley. Our results suggest that switchgrass adoption rates differ widely among agricultural regions, and that switchgrass is not likely to displace specialty crops by much statewide.