Crop‐based biofuels and associated environmental concerns

Current Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) models indicate that crop‐based biofuels generate greenhouse gas savings, compared with fossil fuels. We argue that they do so only because they ignore the emissions of CO₂ from vehicles burning the biofuels without determining if the biomass is “additional,” and because they underestimate the ultimate emissions of N₂O from nitrogen fertiliser use. Taking proper account of these factors would result in very different findings. It would be far better to derive biofuels from biomass, from waste feedstocks or high‐yielding bioenergy crops with low nitrogen demand, grown on currently unproductive land.     

Life‐cycle and cost of goods assessment of fed‐batch and perfusion‐based manufacturing processes for mAbs

Life‐cycle assessment (LCA) is an environmental assessment tool that quantifies the environmental impact associated with a product or a process (e.g., water consumption, energy requirements, and solid waste generation). While LCA is a standard approach in many commercial industries, its application has not been exploited widely in the bioprocessing sector. To contribute toward the design of more cost‐efficient, robust and environmentally‐friendly manufacturing process for monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), a framework consisting of an LCA and economic analysis combined with a sensitivity analysis of manufacturing process parameters and a production scale‐up study is presented. The efficiency of the framework is demonstrated using a comparative study of the two most commonly used upstream configurations for mAb manufacture, namely fed‐batch (FB) and perfusion‐based processes. Results obtained by the framework are presented using a range of visualization tools, and indicate that a standard perfusion process (with a pooling duration of 4 days) has similar cost of goods than a FB process but a larger environmental footprint because it consumed 35% more water, demanded 17% more energy, and emitted 17% more CO₂ than the FB process. Water consumption was the most important impact category, especially when scaling‐up the processes, as energy was required to produce process water and water‐for‐injection, while CO₂ was emitted from energy generation. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the perfusion process can be made more environmentally‐friendly than the FB process if the pooling duration is extended to 8 days. © 2016 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 32:1324–1335, 2016     

Integration in a depot‐based decentralized biorefinery system: Corn stover‐based cellulosic biofuel

The current or “conventional” paradigm for producing process energy in a biorefinery processing cellulosic biomass is on‐site energy recovery through combustion of residual solids and biogas generated by the process. Excess electricity is then exported, resulting in large greenhouse gas (GHG) credits. However, this approach will cause lifecycle GHG emissions of biofuels to increase as more renewable energy sources (wind, solar, etc.) participate in grid‐electricity generation, and the GHG credits from displacing fossil fuel decrease. To overcome this drawback, a decentralized (depot‐based) biorefinery can be integrated with a coal‐fired power plant near a large urban area. In an integrated, decentralized, depot‐based biorefinery (IDB), the residual solids are co‐fired with coal either in the adjacent power plant or in coal‐fired boilers elsewhere to displace coal. An IDB system does not rely on indirect GHG credits through grid‐electricity displacement. In an IDB system, biogas from the wastewater treatment facility is also upgraded to biomethane and used as a transportation biofuel. The GHG savings per unit of cropland in the IDB systems (2.7–2.9 MgCO₂/ha) are 1.5–1.6 fold greater than those in a conventional centralized system (1.7–1.8 MgCO₂/ha). Importantly, the biofuel selling price in the IDBs is lower by 28–30 cents per gasoline‐equivalent liter than in the conventional centralized system. Furthermore, the total capital investment per annual biofuel volume in the IDB is much lower (by ~80%) than that in the conventional centralized system. Therefore, utilization of biomethane and residual solids in the IDB systems leads to much lower biofuel selling prices and significantly greater GHG savings per unit of cropland participating in the biorefinery system compared to the conventional centralized biorefineries.     

Hybrid Input‐Output Life Cycle Assessment of First‐ and Second‐Generation Ethanol Production Technologies in Brazil

A hybrid approach combining life cycle assessment and input‐output analysis was used to demonstrate the economic and environmental benefits of current and future improvements in agricultural and industrial technologies for ethanol production in Brazilian biorefineries. In this article, three main scenarios were evaluated: first‐generation ethanol production with the average current technology; the improved current technology; and the integration of improved first‐ and second‐generation ethanol production. For the improved first‐generation scenario, a US$1 million increase in ethanol demand can give rise to US$2.5 million of total economic activity in the Brazilian economy when direct and indirect purchases of inputs are considered. This value is slightly higher than the economic activity (US$1.8 million) for an energy equivalent amount of gasoline. The integration of first‐ and second‐generation technologies significantly reduces the total greenhouse gas emissions of ethanol production: 14.6 versus 86.4 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per megajoule (g CO₂‐eq/MJ) for gasoline. Moreover, emissions of ethanol can be negative (–10.5 g CO₂‐eq/MJ) when the system boundary is expanded to account for surplus bioelectricity by displacement of natural gas thermal electricity generation considering electricity produced in first‐generation optimized biorefineries.     

Estimating the Greenhouse Gas Balance of Individual Gas‐Fired and Oil‐Fired Electricity Plants on a Global Scale

Life cycle greenhouse gas (LC‐GHG) emissions from electricity generated by a specific resource, such as gas and oil, are commonly reported on a country‐by‐country basis. Estimation of variability in LC‐GHG emissions of individual power plants can, however, be particularly useful to evaluate or identify appropriate environmental policy measures. Here, we developed a regression model to predict LC‐GHG emissions per kilowatt‐hour (kWh) of electricity produced by individual gas‐ and oil‐fired power plants across the world. The regression model uses power plant characteristics as predictors, including capacity, age, fuel type (fuel oil or natural gas), and technology type (single or combined cycle) of the plant. The predictive power of the model was relatively high (R² = 81% for predictions). Fuel and technology type were identified as the most important predictors. Estimated emission factors ranged from 0.45 to 1.16 kilograms carbon dioxide equivalents per kilowatt‐hour (kg CO₂‐eq/kWh) and were clearly different between natural gas combined cycle (0.45 to 0.57 kg CO₂‐eq/kWh), natural gas single cycle (0.66 to 0.85 kg CO₂‐eq/kWh), oil combined cycle power plants (0.63 to 0.79 kg CO₂‐eq/kWh), and oil single cycle (0.94 to 1.16 kg CO₂‐eq/kWh). Our results thus indicate that emission data averaged by fuel and technology type can be profitably used to estimate the emissions of individual plants.     

An agent‐based modelling approach to evaluate factors influencing bioenergy crop adoption in north‐east Scotland

An agent‐based modelling (ABM) framework was adapted to assess bioenergy crop uptake and integrate social and economic processes with biophysical elements. Survey results indicated that economic rationalisation was intrinsic to farmers’ decision‐making, but was not the only consideration. This study presents an approach, set within an established resource management framework, to incorporate a number of key socio‐economic factors, which we call Mitigation Willingness Factors (MWFs), using survey data collected from farmers and land managers, into the ABM. The MWFs represent farmers’ willingness to compromise revenue in order to reduce GHG emissions, derived from their attitudes to climate change and the ability of different economic mechanisms to stimulate energy crop uptake. Adoption of bioenergy crops of different farmer types and farming enterprises was also assessed. Adoption rates and scenarios that take into account noneconomic factors are presented, and particular farming enterprises that may respond more positively to policy initiatives are identified.     

Consensus,uncertainties and challenges for perennial bioenergy crops and land use

Perennial bioenergy crops have significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to climate change mitigation by substituting for fossil fuels; yet delivering significant GHG savings will require substantial land‐use change, globally. Over the last decade, research has delivered improved understanding of the environmental benefits and risks of this transition to perennial bioenergy crops, addressing concerns that the impacts of land conversion to perennial bioenergy crops could result in increased rather than decreased GHG emissions. For policymakers to assess the most cost‐effective and sustainable options for deployment and climate change mitigation, synthesis of these studies is needed to support evidence‐based decision making. In 2015, a workshop was convened with researchers, policymakers and industry/business representatives from the UK, EU and internationally. Outcomes from global research on bioenergy land‐use change were compared to identify areas of consensus, key uncertainties, and research priorities. Here, we discuss the strength of evidence for and against six consensus statements summarising the effects of land‐use change to perennial bioenergy crops on the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and water, in the context of the whole life‐cycle of bioenergy production. Our analysis suggests that the direct impacts of dedicated perennial bioenergy crops on soil carbon and nitrous oxide are increasingly well understood and are often consistent with significant life cycle GHG mitigation from bioenergy relative to conventional energy sources. We conclude that the GHG balance of perennial bioenergy crop cultivation will often be favourable, with maximum GHG savings achieved where crops are grown on soils with low carbon stocks and conservative nutrient application, accruing additional environmental benefits such as improved water quality. The analysis reported here demonstrates there is a mature and increasingly comprehensive evidence base on the environmental benefits and risks of bioenergy cultivation which can support the development of a sustainable bioenergy industry.     

Evaluation of a Regional Approach to Standards for Plug‐in Battery Electric Vehicles in Future Light‐Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Regulations

Representing the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions attributable to plug‐in electric vehicles (PEV) in vehicle GHG emissions regulations is complex because of spatial and temporal variation in fueling sources and vehicle use. Previous work has shown that the environmental performance of PEVs significantly varies depending on the characteristics of the electricity grid and how the vehicle is driven. This article evaluates the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) GHG emissions accounting methodology in current and future standards for new electrified vehicles. The current approach employed by the EPA in their 2017–2025 model year light‐duty vehicle GHG regulation is compared with an accounting mechanism where the actual regional sales of PEVs, and the regional electricity emission factor in the year sold, are used to determine vehicle compliance value. Changes to the electricity grid over time and regional vehicle sales are included in the modeling efforts. A projection of a future GHG regulation past the 2017–2025 rule is used to observe the effect of such a regional regulation. The results showed that the complexity involved in tracking and accounting for regional PEV sales will not dramatically increase the effectiveness of the regulations to capture PEV electricity‐related GHG emissions in the absence of a major policy shift. A discussion of the feasibility and effectiveness of a regional standard for PEVs, and notable examples of region‐specific regulations instated in past energy policies, is also addressed.     

Life cycle analysis of biochemical cellulosic ethanol under multiple scenarios

Cellulosic ethanol is widely believed to offer substantial environmental advantages over petroleum fuels and grain‐based ethanol, particularly in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transportation. The environmental impacts of biofuels are largely caused by precombustion activities, feedstock production and conversion facility operations. Life cycle analysis (LCA) is required to understand these impacts. This article describes a field‐to‐blending terminal LCA of cellulosic ethanol produced by biochemical conversion (hydrolysis and fermentation) using corn stover or switchgrass as feedstock. This LCA develops unique models for most elements of the biofuel production process and assigns environmental impact to different phases of production. More than 30 scenarios are evaluated, reflecting a range of feedstock, technology and scale options for near‐term and future facilities. Cellulosic ethanol, as modeled here, has the potential to significantly reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to petroleum‐based liquid transportation fuels, though substantial uncertainty exists. Most of the conservative scenarios estimate GHG emissions of approximately 45–60 g carbon dioxide equivalent per MJ of delivered fuel (g CO₂e MJ^?1) without credit for coproducts, and 20–30 g CO₂e MJ^?1 when coproducts are considered. Under most scenarios, feedstock production, grinding and transport dominate the total GHG footprint. The most optimistic scenarios include sequestration of carbon in soil and have GHG emissions below zero g CO₂e MJ^?1, while the most pessimistic have life‐cycle GHG emissions higher than petroleum gasoline. Soil carbon changes are the greatest source of uncertainty, dominating all other sources of GHG emissions at the upper bound of their uncertainty. Many LCAs of biofuels are narrowly constrained to GHG emissions and energy; however, these narrow assessments may miss important environmental impacts. To ensure a more holistic assessment of environmental performance, a complete life cycle inventory, with over 1100 tracked material and energy flows for each scenario is provided in the online supplementary material for this article.     

A Hybrid‐Unit Energy Input‐Output Model to Evaluate Embodied Energy and Life Cycle Emissions for China's Economy

We develop a hybrid‐unit energy input‐output (I/O) model with a disaggregated electricity sector for China. The model replaces primary energy rows in monetary value, namely, coal, gas, crude oil, and renewable energy, with physical flow units in order to overcome errors associated with the proportionality assumption in environmental I/O analysis models. Model development and data use are explained and compared with other approaches in the field of environmental life cycle assessment. The model is applied to evaluate the primary energy embodied in economic output to meet Chinese final consumption for the year 2007. Direct and indirect carbon dioxide emissions intensities are determined. We find that different final demand categories pose distinctive requirements on the primary energy mix. Also, a considerable amount of energy is embodied in the supply chain of secondary industries. Embodied energy and emissions are crucial to consider for policy development in China based on consumption, rather than production. Consumption‐based policies will likely play a more important role in China when per capita income levels have reached those of western countries.     

Noise footprint from personal land‐based mobility

A large part of the world population is exposed to noise levels that are unhealthy. Yet noise is often neglected when impact assessment studies are conducted and when policy interventions are designed. In this study, we provide a way to calculate the noise footprint of citizens directly determined by their use of private and public transport on land. The study combines the results of the large transport simulation model MATSim applied to Switzerland, with a noise characterization model, N‐LCA, developed in the context of life cycle assessment. MATSim results allow tracking the use of private and public transportation by agents in the model. The results after characterization provide a consumption‐based noise footprint, thus the total noise and impacts that are caused by the private mobility demand of the citizens of Switzerland. Our results confirm that road transportation is the largest contributor to the total noise footprint of land‐based mobility. We also included a scenario with a full transition to an electrified car fleet, which showed the potential for the reduction of impacts, particularly in urban areas, by about 55% as compared to the modeled regime with combustion engines.     

Greenhouse gas emissions of the production chain behind consumption of products in Austria: Development and application of a product‐ and technology‐specific approach

Globalization has been one main driver affecting our whole economy. Thus, greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) associated with imports and exports should get addressed in addition to the national emission inventory according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which is focused on territorial emissions only. To enable a correct calculation for imports and exports and to find the most emission‐intensive products and their origin, a product‐ and technology‐specific approach would be favorable which has not been applied up to now. This article addresses this research gap in developing and applying such an approach to calculate the GHGs behind consumption of products in Austria. It is based on physical flows combined with life‐cycle‐based emission factors and emission intensities derived from sector‐ and country‐specific energy mix, for calculating all emissions behind the production chain (resources to final products) of products consumed in Austria. The results have shown that consumption of products in Austria leads to about 60% more emissions than those of the national inventory and that the main part of these emissions comes from the provision of products. The most emission‐intensive products are coming from the chemical and the metal industry. In particular, imports are the main driver of these emissions and are more emission intensive than those produced in Austria. As a result, it is necessary to look at practical measures to reduce emissions along the production chain not only in Austria, but especially abroad as well.     

Using Attributional Life Cycle Assessment to Estimate Climate‐Change Mitigation Benefits Misleads Policy Makers

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is generally described as a tool for environmental decision making. Results from attributional LCA (ALCA), the most commonly used LCA method, often are presented in a way that suggests that policy decisions based on these results will yield the quantitative benefits estimated by ALCA. For example, ALCAs of biofuels are routinely used to suggest that the implementation of one alternative (say, a biofuel) will cause an X% change in greenhouse gas emissions, compared with a baseline (typically gasoline). However, because of several simplifications inherent in ALCA, the method, in fact, is not predictive of real‐world impacts on climate change, and hence the usual quantitative interpretation of ALCA results is not valid. A conceptually superior approach, consequential LCA (CLCA), avoids many of the limitations of ALCA, but because it is meant to model actual changes in the real world, CLCA results are scenario dependent and uncertain. These limitations mean that even the best practical CLCAs cannot produce definitive quantitative estimates of actual environmental outcomes. Both forms of LCA, however, can yield valuable insights about potential environmental effects, and CLCA can support robust decision making. By openly recognizing the limitations and understanding the appropriate uses of LCA as discussed here, practitioners and researchers can help policy makers implement policies that are less likely to have perverse effects and more likely to lead to effective environmental policies, including climate mitigation strategies.     

A Hybrid Approach for Assessing the Multi‐Scale Impacts of Urban Resource Use: Transportation in Phoenix,Arizona

Life cycle assessment (LCA) and urban metabolism (UM) are popular approaches for urban system environmental assessment. However, both approaches have challenges when used across spatial scales. LCA tends to decompose systemic information into micro‐level functional units that mask complexity and purpose, whereas UM typically equates aggregated material and energy flows with impacts and is not ideal for revealing the mechanisms or alternatives available to reduce systemic environmental risks. This study explores the value of integrating UM with LCA, using vehicle transportation in the Phoenix metropolitan area as an illustrative case study. Where other studies have focused on the use of LCA providing upstream supply‐chain impacts for UM, we assert that the broader value of the integrated approach is in (1) the ability to cross scales (from micro to macro) in environmental assessment and (2) establishing an analysis that captures function and complexity in urban systems. The results for Phoenix show the complexity in resource supply chains and critical infrastructure services, how impacts accrue well beyond geopolitical boundaries where activities occur, and potential system vulnerabilities.     

Site‐specific life cycle assessment of a pilot floating offshore wind farm based on suppliers’ data and geo‐located wind data

Renewable energy systems are essential in coming years to ensure an efficient energy supply while maintaining environmental protection. Despite having low environmental impacts during operation, other phases of the life cycle need to be accounted for. This study presents a geo‐located life cycle assessment of an emerging technology, namely, floating offshore wind farms. It is developed and applied to a pilot project in the Mediterranean Sea. The materials inventory is based on real data from suppliers and coupled to a parameterized model which exploits a geographic information system wind database to estimate electricity production. This multi‐criteria assessment identified the extraction and transformation of materials as the main contributor to environmental impacts such as climate change (70% of the total 22.3 g CO₂ eq/kWh), water use (73% of 6.7 L/kWh), and air quality (76% of 25.2 mg PM2.5/kWh), mainly because of the floater's manufacture. The results corroborate the low environmental impact of this emerging technology compared to other energy sources. The electricity production estimates, based on geo‐located wind data, were found to be a critical component of the model that affects environmental performance. Sensitivity analyses highlighted the importance of the project's lifetime, which was the main parameter responsible for variations in the analyzed categories. Background uncertainties should be analyzed but may be reduced by focusing data collection on significant contributors. Geo‐located modeling proved to be an effective technique to account for geographical variability of renewable energy technologies and contribute to decision‐making processes leading to their development.     

Spatial modeling of techno‐economic potential of biojet fuel production in Brazil

It is expected that Brazil could play an important role in biojet fuel (BJF) production in the future due to the long experience in biofuel production and the good agro‐ecological conditions. However, it is difficult to quantify the techno‐economic potential of BJF because of the high spatiotemporal variability of available land, biomass yield, and infrastructure as well as the technological developments in BJF production pathways. The objective of this research is to assess the recent and future techno‐economic potential of BJF production in Brazil and to identify location‐specific optimal combinations of biomass crops and technological conversion pathways. In total, 13 production routes (supply chains) are assessed through the combination of various biomass crops and BJF technologies. We consider temporal land use data to identify potential land availability for biomass production. With the spatial distribution of the land availability and potential yield of biomass crops, biomass production potential and costs are calculated. The BJF production cost is calculated by taking into account the development in the technological pathways and in plant scales. We estimate the techno‐economic potential by determining the minimum BJF total costs and comparing this with the range of fossil jet fuel prices. The techno‐economic potential of BJF production ranges from 0 to 6.4 EJ in 2015 and between 1.2 and 7.8 EJ in 2030, depending on the reference fossil jet fuel price, which varies from 19 to 65 US$/GJ across the airports. The techno‐economic potential consists of a diverse set of production routes. The Northeast and Southeast region of Brazil present the highest potentials with several viable production routes, whereas the remaining regions only have a few promising production routes. The maximum techno‐economic potential of BJF in Brazil could meet almost half of the projected global jet fuel demand toward 2030.     

Life Cycle Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Marine Fuels: A Case Study of Saudi Crude Oil versus Natural Gas in Different Global Regions

The understanding of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions dimension in discussing the future of marine fuels makes it important to advance the current life cycle assessment (LCA) practice in this context. Previous LCA studies of marine fuels rely on general LCA models such as GREET and JEC well‐to‐wheels study. These models do not fully capture the various methane losses in the fuel supply chain. The primary goal of this LCA study is to compare the GHG emissions of heavy fuel oil and marine gas oil produced from Saudi crude oil to liquefied natural gas (LNG) in different global regions. A sensitivity analysis was performed to show how results may vary with non‐Saudi crudes. A secondary goal was to advance LCA of marine fuels by utilizing, for the first time, a set of bottom‐up engineering models that enable detailed analysis of specific oil and gas projects worldwide. The results show particular cases where LNG use in marine applications has a significant countereffect in terms of climate change compared to conventional marine fuels produced from a low‐carbon‐intensity crude oil. When the results are calculated based on a 20‐ versus 100‐year methane global warming potential, LNG appears noncompetitive for climate impact in marine applications.     

Subnational greenhouse gas and land‐based biodiversity footprints in the European Union

Insights into subnational environmental impacts and the underlying drivers are scarce, especially from a consumption‐based perspective. Here, we quantified greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and land‐based biodiversity losses associated with final consumption in 162 regions in the European Union in 2010. For this purpose, we developed an environmentally extended multi‐regional input–output (MRIO) model with subnational European information on demand, production, and trade structures subdivided into 18 major economic sectors, while accounting for trade outside Europe. We employed subnational data on land use and national data on GHG emissions. Our results revealed within‐country differences in per capita GHG and land‐based biodiversity footprints up to factors of 3.0 and 3.5, respectively, indicating that national footprints may mask considerable subnational variability. The per capita GHG footprint increased with per capita income and income equality, whereas we did not find such responses for the per capita land‐based biodiversity footprint, reflecting that extra income is primarily spent on energy‐intensive activities. Yet, we found a shift from the domestic to the foreign part of the biodiversity footprints with rising population density and income. Because our analysis showed that most regions are already net importers of GHG emissions and biodiversity losses, we conclude that it is increasingly important to address the role of trade in national and regional policies on mitigating GHG emissions and averting further biodiversity losses, both within and outside the region itself. To further increase the policy relevance of subnational footprint analyses, we also recommend the compilation of more detailed subnational MRIO databases including harmonized environmental data.     

Life Cycle–based Assessment of Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Almond Production,Part II: Uncertainty Analysis through Sensitivity Analysis and Scenario Testing

This is the second part of a two‐article series examining California almond production. The part I article describes development of the analytical framework and life cycle–based model and presents typical energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for California almonds. This part II article builds on this by exploring uncertainty in the life cycle model through sensitivity and scenario analysis, and by examining temporary carbon storage in the orchard. Sensitivity analysis shows life cycle GHG emissions are most affected by biomass fate and utilization, followed by nitrous oxide emissions rates from orchard soils. Model sensitivity for net energy consumption is highest for irrigation system parameters, followed by biomass fate and utilization. Scenario analysis shows utilization of orchard biomass for electricity production has the greatest potential effect, assuming displacement methods are used for co‐product allocation. Results of the scenario analysis show that 1 kilogram (kg) of almond kernel and associated co‐products are estimated to cause between ?3.12 to 2.67 kg carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂‐eq) emissions and consume between 27.6 to 52.5 megajoules (MJ) of energy. Co‐product displacement credits lead to avoided emissions of between ?1.33 to 2.45 kg CO₂‐eq and between ?0.08 to 13.7 MJ of avoided energy use, leading to net results of ?1.39 to 3.99 kg CO₂‐eq and 15.3 to 52.6 MJ per kg kernel (net results are calculated by subtracting co‐product credits from the results for almonds and co‐products). Temporary carbon storage in orchard biomass and soils is accounted for by using alternative global warming characterization factors and leads to a 14% to 18% reduction in CO₂‐eq emissions. Future studies of orchards and other perennial cropping systems should likely consider temporary carbon storage.     

Alternatives for natural‐gas‐based heating systems: A quantitative GIS‐based analysis of climate impacts and financial feasibility

The heating of buildings currently produces 6% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable heating technologies can reduce heating‐related CO₂ emissions by up to 90%. We present a Python‐based GIS model to analyze the environmental and financial impact of strategies to reduce heating‐related CO₂ emissions of residential buildings. The city‐wide implementation of three alternatives to natural gas are evaluated: high‐temperature heating networks, low‐temperature heating networks, and heat pumps. We find that both lowering the demand for heat and providing more sustainable sources of heat will be necessary to achieve significant CO₂‐emission reductions. Of the studied alternatives, only low‐temperature heating networks and heat pumps have the potential to reduce CO₂ emissions by 90%. A CO₂ tax and an increase in tax on the use of natural gas are potent policy tools to accelerate the adoption of low‐carbon heating technologies.