High site fidelity,strong associations,and long‐term bonds: Short‐finned pilot whales off the island of Hawai‘i

Studies of short‐finned pilot whales suggest they travel in stable mixed‐sex groups composed of strongly associated individuals; however, temporal analyses of social structure are lacking. To examine site fidelity, association patterns, and temporal relationships, we analyzed data from 267 encounters of this species off the island of Hawai‘i from 2003 through 2007, identifying 448 distinctive individuals (68.1% seen more than once). About 72% of the whales were linked by association into a single social network, suggesting the possibility of multiple populations using the area. Sighting histories suggested that only some individuals exhibit high site fidelity. Individuals demonstrated preferential associations and community division was strongly supported by average‐linkage hierarchical cluster analysis of the association data. Nine longitudinally stable social units composed of key individuals and their constant companions were identified. Qualitative assignment of age and sex classes of unit members indicated that some segregation between adult males and female/calf pairs may occur. Temporal analyses of individuals encountered on the same day indicate stable long‐term associations. Differential patterns of residency and site fidelity were unexpected and may be indicative of multiple populations around the main Hawaiian Islands. The presence of a resident population demonstrating strong, long‐term site fidelity and associations off Hawai‘i Island may warrant special management considerations.     

False killer whales and fisheries interactions in Hawaiian waters: Evidence for sex bias and variation among populations and social groups

We assessed scarring patterns as evidence of fisheries interactions for three populations of false killer whales in Hawai‘i. Bycatch of the pelagic population in the tuna longline fishery exceeds their Potential Biological Removal level. Scarring was assessed by seven evaluators as consistent, possibly consistent, or not consistent with fisheries interactions, and average scores computed. Scores were highest for scarred main Hawaiian Island (MHI) false killer whales, followed by pelagic and Northwestern Hawaiian Island (NWHI) individuals. Considering only whales for which the majority of evaluators scored scarring as consistent revealed significant differences among populations in the percentage of individuals scarred; MHI: 7.5%, pelagic: 0%, NWHI: 0%. Assessment by social cluster for the MHI population showed that 4.2% of Cluster 1, 7.1% of Cluster 2, and 12.8% of Cluster 3 individuals had such scarring, although differences between clusters were not statistically significant. There was a significant sex bias; all sexed individuals (n = 7) with injuries consistent with fisheries interactions were female. The higher proportion of MHI individuals with fisheries‐related scarring suggests that fisheries interactions are occurring at a higher rate in this population. The bias towards females suggests that fisheries‐related mortality has a disproportionate impact on population dynamics.     

Does a lack of observed beaked whale strandings in military exercise areas mean no impacts have occurred? A comparison of stranding and detection probabilities in the Canary and main Hawaiian Islands

Anthropogenic activities must be monitored to determine effects on marine mammal species, but the difficulty lies in how to measure impact. Mass strandings of beaked whales have occurred in association with naval exercises, with two species most affected, Cuvier's (Ziphius cavirostris) and Blainville's (Mesoplodon densirostris) beaked whales. Six such events have occurred in the Canary Islands but there have been no reported mass strandings in Hawai‘i. We assess the hypothesis that factors that influence the likelihood of strandings occurring and/or being detected differ between the Canary and main Hawaiian Islands, such that beaked whale stranding/detection probabilities will be lower in Hawai‘i. On an archipelago-wide basis, nearshore bathymetric comparisons indicate that the Canaries have a greater proportion and a total greater amount of appropriate beaked whale habitat closer to shore, with a steeper slope. Hawaiian shorelines are more dominated by steep cliffs, human population density is much lower, and human population per kilometer of shoreline is 53% lower than in the Canaries. All of these factors suggest that there is a higher probability of a carcass washing onshore and being detected in the Canary Islands. It cannot be concluded that the lack of mass strandings in Hawai‘i is evidence of no impact.     

Population estimates of the Endangered Hawaiʻi ʻĀkepa (Loxops coccineus) in different habitats on windward Mauna Loa

Endangered Hawai‘i ?ākepas (Loxops coccineus) are endemic to Hawai‘i island, where they occur in five spatially distinct populations. Data concerning the status and population trends of these unique Hawaiian honeycreepers are crucial for assessing the effectiveness of recovery and management actions. In 2016, we used point‐transect distance sampling to estimate the abundance of Hawai‘i ?ākepas in portions of Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park (HAVO) and the Ka?ū Forest Reserve (KFR) on Mauna Loa volcano. We then compiled the survey data from four other populations to provide a global population estimate. In our HAVO and KFR study area, we mapped habitat classes to determine the population densities in each habitat. Densities were highest (1.03 birds/ha) in open‐canopy montane ?ōhi?a (Metrosideros polymorpha) woodland. In contrast, densities of the largest ?ākepa population on Mauna Kea volcano were highest in closed‐canopy ?ōhi?a and koa (Acacia koa) forest where the species is dependent on nest cavities in tall (> 15 m), large (> 50‐cm diameter at breast height) trees. We surveyed potential nesting habitat in HAVO and KFR and found only one cavity in the short‐stature montane ?ōhi?a woodland and five cavities in the tall‐stature forest. Differences in densities between the Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa populations suggest that Hawai‘i ?ākepas may exhibit different foraging and nesting behaviors in the two habitats. The estimated overall population density in the HAVO and KFR study area was 0.52 birds/ha, which equates to 3663 (95% CI 1725–6961) birds in their 11,377‐ha population range. We calculated a global population of 16,428 (95% CI 10,065–25,198) birds, which is similar to an estimate of 13,892 (95% CI 10,315–17,469) birds made in 1986. Our results suggest that populations are stable to increasing in the two largest populations, but the three other populations are smaller (range = 77–1443 birds) and trends for those populations are unknown.     

Experimental Evidence for Evolved Tolerance to Avian Malaria in a Wild Population of Low Elevation Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi (Hemignathus virens)

Introduced vector-borne diseases, particularly avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) and avian pox virus (Avipoxvirus spp.), continue to play significant roles in the decline and extinction of native forest birds in the Hawaiian Islands. Hawaiian honeycreepers are particularly susceptible to avian malaria and have survived into this century largely because of persistence of high elevation refugia on Kaua‘i, Maui, and Hawai‘i Islands, where transmission is limited by cool temperatures. The long term stability of these refugia is increasingly threatened by warming trends associated with global climate change. Since cost effective and practical methods of vector control in many of these remote, rugged areas are lacking, adaptation through processes of natural selection may be the best long-term hope for recovery of many of these species. We document emergence of tolerance rather than resistance to avian malaria in a recent, rapidly expanding low elevation population of Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi (Hemignathus virens) on the island of Hawai‘i. Experimentally infected low elevation birds had lower mortality, lower reticulocyte counts during recovery from acute infection, lower weight loss, and no declines in food consumption relative to experimentally infected high elevation Hawai‘i ‘Amakihi in spite of similar intensities of infection. Emergence of this population provides an exceptional opportunity for determining physiological mechanisms and genetic markers associated with malaria tolerance that can be used to evaluate whether other, more threatened species have the capacity to adapt to this disease.     

Phylogeography of Asparagopsis taxiformis revisited: Combined mtDNA data provide novel insights into population structure in Japan

Six intraspecific lineages (Lineages 1–6) of Asparagopsis taxiformis have been previously established based on mitochondrial cox2‐cox3 intergenic spacer and a partial cox1 sequences. ‘Lineage 2’ (L2) was suggested to be a recent introduction to the Mediterranean Sea, but its source population has not yet been identified. In order to clarify the nature of northwestern Pacific populations, we performed extensive sampling in Japan (60 individuals from 16 locations) and molecular phylogenetic analyses based on mitochondrial sequences. Sixteen additional individuals, collected from eight locations in the Indo‐Pacific, Caribbean, and Mediterranean regions, were also analyzed. Combined sequence analyses revealed that the Japanese populations only consisted of L2. Out of 19 combined haplotypes identified within L2, two are shared between Japan and the Mediterranean Sea and the Hawaiian Islands, and 12 were identified as endemic to Japan. Genetic analyses of population differentiation suggested that Japanese populations are genetically isolated from the Mediterranean and the Hawaiian populations. A genetic disjunction appears to separate two subpopulations within Japan: one between Toi and Kagoshima and the other between Ojikajima Island and Kagoshima in the Kyushu area.     

Using historical data to assess the biogeography of population recovery

Historical ecology research is valuable for assessing long‐term baselines, and is increasingly applicable to conservation and management. In this study, we describe how historical range data can inform key aspects of protected species management, including evaluating conservation status and recovery, and determining practical management units. We examine contemporary (1973–2012) and historical (1250–1950) data on nesting beach distributions for green sea turtles Chelonia mydas in the Hawaiian Islands. Green turtle populations in Hawai‘i declined until federal and international protections began in the 1970s, but over the past four decades one index population has shown encouraging increases and broader recovery has been inferred. We find that 80% of historically major nesting populations are extirpated, or have heavily reduced nesting abundances in comparison with current estimates. Furthermore, historical nesting areas were not geographically isolated, but distributed across the archipelago. In comparison, today more than 90% of green turtle nesting in Hawai‘i occurs at a single site that is vulnerable to sea level rise. This research suggests that assessing recovery without historical data on spatial patterns may overlook important ecological dynamics at the popu lation or ecosystem level, which can result in improper or inadequate conservation assessments and recovery targets.     

SITE FIDELITY, ASSOCIATIONS, AND MOVEMENTS OF CUVIER'S (ZIPHIUS CAVIROSTRIS) AND BLAINVILLE'S (MESOPLODON DENSIROSTRIS) BEAKED WHALES OFF THE ISLAND OF HAWAI'I

Although the Ziphiidae are the second-most speciose family of cetaceans, information on beaked whale species and populations has been limited by the difficulties in finding and approaching free-ranging individuals. Site fidelity, patterns of association, and movements of two species, Cuvier's ( Ziphius cavirostris ) and Blainville's ( Mesoplodon densirostris ) beaked whales, were assessed using a 21-yr photographic data set from the west coast of the island of Hawai i. Resightings of individuals of both species spanned 15 yr, suggesting long-term site fidelity to the area. Long-term resightings were documented primarily from adult females of both species. Group sizes for both species were small and most groups had only a single adult male present. For Blainville's beaked whales, repeated associations between adult females and adult males were documented for all resightings of adult males over periods from 1 to 154 d. Among adult females, although repeated associations occurred up to 9 yr apart, individuals were seen separately in intervening years. Individuals of both species seen on multiple occasions were typically documented in multiple months/seasons, suggesting they may use the study area throughout the year. Such long-term site fidelity has implications both for potential population structure and for susceptibility of beaked whale populations to anthropogenic impacts.     

Population structure of island‐associated dolphins: Evidence from mitochondrial and microsatellite markers for common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) around the main Hawaiian Islands

We used mitochondrial and nuclear genetic markers to investigate population structure of common bottlenose dolphins, Tursiops truncatus, around the main Hawaiian Islands. Though broadly distributed throughout the world's oceans, bottlenose dolphins are known to form small populations in coastal waters. Recent photo‐identification data suggest the same is true in Hawaiian waters. We found genetic differentiation among (mtDNA Φ_ST= 0.014–0.141, microsatellite F’_ST= 0.019–0.050) and low dispersal rates between (0.17–5.77 dispersers per generation) the main Hawaiian Island groups. Our results are consistent with movement rates estimated from photo‐identification data and suggest that each island group supports a demographically independent population. Inclusion in our analyses of samples collected near Palmyra Atoll provided evidence that the Hawaiian Islands are also occasionally visited by members of a genetically distinct, pelagic population. Two of our samples exhibited evidence of partial ancestry from Indo‐Pacific bottlenose dolphins (T. aduncus), a species not known to inhabit the Hawaiian Archipelago. Our findings have important implications for the management of Hawaiian bottlenose dolphins and raise concerns about the vulnerability to human impacts of pelagic species in island ecosystems.     

Population structure of island-associated dolphins: Evidence from photo-identification of common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the main Hawaiian Islands

Management agencies often use geopolitical boundaries as proxies for biological boundaries. In Hawaiian waters a single stock is recognized of common bottlenose dolphins, Tursiops truncatus , a species that is found both in open water and near-shore among the main Hawaiian Islands. To assess population structure, we photo-identified 336 distinctive individuals from the main Hawaiian Islands, from 2000 to 2006. Their generally shallow-water distribution, and numerous within-year and between-year resightings within island areas suggest that individuals are resident to the islands, rather than part of an offshore population moving through the area. Comparisons of identifications obtained from Kaua'i/Ni'ihau, O'ahu, the "4-island area," and the island of Hawai'i showed no evidence of movements among these island groups, although movements from Kaua'i to Ni'ihau and among the "4-islands" were documented. A Bayesian analysis examining the probability of missing movements among island groups, given our sample sizes for different areas, indicates that interisland movement rates are less than 1% per year with 95% probability. Our results suggest the existence of multiple demographically independent populations of island-associated common bottlenose dolphins around the main Hawaiian islands.     

Contrasting post-settlement selection results in many-to-one mapping of high performance phenotypes in the Hawaiian waterfall-climbing goby <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sicyopterus stimpsoni</Emphasis>

Natural selection drives adaptive evolution, but contrasting environmental pressures may lead to trade-offs between phenotypes that confer different performances. Such trade-offs may weaken the strength of selection and/or generate complex fitness surfaces with multiple local optima that correspond to different selection regimes. We evaluated how differences in patterns of phenotypic selection might promote morphological differences between subpopulations of the amphidromous Hawaiian waterfall-climbing goby, Sicyopterus stimpsoni. We conducted laboratory experiments on fish from the islands of Kaua‘i and Hawai‘i (the “Big Island”) to compare patterns of linear and nonlinear selection, and the opportunity for selection, that result from two contrasting pressures, predator evasion and waterfall climbing, which vary in intensity between islands. We found directional and nonlinear selection were strongest when individuals were exposed to their primary selective pressures (predator evasion on Kaua‘i, waterfall climbing on the Big Island). However, the opportunity for selection was greater for the non-primary pressure: climbing on Kaua‘i, predator evasion on the Big Island. Canonical rotation of the nonlinear gamma matrix demonstrated that individuals from Kaua‘i and the Big Island occupy regions near their local fitness peaks for some traits. Therefore, selection for predator evasion on Kaua‘i and climbing on the Big Island may be less effective in promoting morphological changes in this species, because variation of functionally important traits in their respective environments may have been reduced by directional or stabilizing selection. These results demonstrate that despite constraints on the opportunities for selection, population differences in phenotypic traits can arise due to differences in selective regimes. For S. stimpsoni, sufficient variation exists in other locomotor traits, allowing for necessary levels of performance in the contrasting selective regime (i.e., climbing on Kaua‘i and predator evasion on the Big Island) through many-to-one-mapping, which may be essential for the survival of local populations in an evanescent island environment.     

Bottlenecks and multiple introductions: population genetics of the vector of avian malaria in Hawaii

Avian malaria has had a profound impact on the demographics and behaviour of Hawaiian forest birds since its vector, Culex quinquefasciatus the southern house mosquito, was first introduced to Hawaii around 1830. In order to understand the dynamics of the disease in Hawaii and gain insights into the evolution of vector-mediated parasite-host interactions in general we studied the population genetics of Cx. quinquefasciatus in the Hawaiian Islands. We used both microsatellite and mitochondrial loci. Not surprisingly we found that mosquitoes in Midway, a small island in the Western group, are quite distinct from the populations in the main Hawaiian Islands. However, we also found that in general mosquito populations are relatively isolated even among the main islands, in particular between Hawaii (the Big Island) and the remaining Hawaiian Islands. We found evidence of bottlenecks among populations within the Big Island and an excess of alleles in Maui, the site of the original introduction. The mitochondrial diversity was typically low but higher than expected. The current distribution of mitochondrial haplotypes combined with the microsatellite information lead us to conclude that there have been several introductions and to speculate on some processes that may be responsible for the current population genetics of vectors of avian malaria in Hawaii.     

Persistence of an endangered native duck,feral mallards,and multiple hybrid swarms across the main Hawaiian Islands

Interspecific hybridization is recognized as an important process in the evolutionary dynamics of both speciation and the reversal of speciation. However, our understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of hybridization that erode versus promote species boundaries is incomplete. The endangered, endemic koloa maoli (or Hawaiian duck, Anas wyvilliana) is thought to be threatened with genetic extinction through ongoing hybridization with an introduced congener, the feral mallard (A. platyrhynchos). We investigated spatial and temporal variation in hybrid prevalence in populations throughout the main Hawaiian Islands, using genomic data to characterize population structure of koloa, quantify the extent of hybridization, and compare hybrid proportions over time. To accomplish this, we genotyped 3,308 double‐digest restriction‐site‐associated DNA (ddRAD) loci in 425 putative koloa, mallards, and hybrids from populations across the main Hawaiian Islands. We found that despite a population decline in the last century, koloa genetic diversity is high. There were few hybrids on the island of Kaua?i, home to the largest population of koloa. By contrast, we report that sampled populations outside of Kaua?i can now be characterized as hybrid swarms, in that all individuals sampled were of mixed koloa × mallard ancestry. Further, there is some evidence that these swarms are stable over time. These findings demonstrate spatial variation in the extent and consequences of interspecific hybridization, and highlight how islands or island‐like systems with small population sizes may be especially prone to genetic extinction when met with a congener that is not reproductively isolated.     

False killer whales (Pseudorca crassidens) around the main Hawaiian Islands: Long-term site fidelity, inter-island movements, and association patterns

Despite their world-wide distribution throughout the tropics and subtropics, false killer whales ( Pseudorca crassidens ) are one of the lesser-known large odontocetes. Genetic evidence indicates a demographically isolated population around the main Hawaiian Islands. We examine site fidelity, movements and association patterns in this population using data from directed surveys and opportunistic photographs from 1986 to 2007. This species was only infrequently encountered, and while found in depths from 38 to 4,331 m, sighting rates were greatest in depths >3,000 m. We photo-identified 152 distinctive individuals. Resighting rates were high, with an average of 76.8% of distinctive individuals within groups documented on more than one occasion. Most (86.6%) were linked by association into a single social network; only one large group (16 distinctive individuals), documented the farthest offshore (42–70 km), did not link by association to that large network, and may be part of an offshore population. Individual movements of up to 283 km were documented, with a large proportion of individuals moving among islands. Individuals were resighted up to 20.1 yr after first being documented, showing long-term fidelity to the islands. Repeated associations among individuals were documented for up to 15 yr, and association analyses indicate preferred associations and strong bonds among individuals.     

Movements of four native Hawaiian birds across a naturally fragmented landscape

Animals often increase their fitness by moving across space in response to temporal variation in habitat quality and resource availability, and as a result of intra and inter‐specific interactions. The long‐term persistence of populations and even whole species depends on the collective patterns of individual movements, yet animal movements have been poorly studied at the landscape level. We quantified movement behavior within four native species of Hawaiian forest birds in a complex lava‐fragmented landscape: Hawai?i ‘amakihi Chlorodrepanis virens, ‘oma‘o Myadestes obscurus, ‘apapane Himatione sanguinea, and ‘i‘iwi Drepanis coccinea. We evaluated the relative importance of six potential intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of movement behavior and patch fidelity: 1) forest fragment size, 2) the presence or absence of invasive rats (Rattus sp.), 3) season, 4) species, 5) age, and 6) sex. The study was conducted across a landscape of 34 forest fragments varying in size from 0.07 to 12.37 ha, of which 16 had rats removed using a treatment‐control design. We found the largest movements in the nectivorous ‘apapane and ‘i‘iwi, intermediate levels in the generalist Hawai?i ‘amakihi, and shortest average movement for the ‘oma‘o, a frugivore. We found evidence for larger patch sizes increasing patch fidelity only in the ‘oma‘o, and an effect of rat‐removal increasing patch fidelity of Hawai?i ‘amakihi only after two years of rat‐removal. Greater movement during the non‐breeding season was observed in all species, and season was an important factor in explaining higher patch fidelity in the breeding season for ‘apapane and ‘i‘iwi. Sex was important in explaining patch fidelity in ‘oma‘o only, with males showing higher patch fidelity. Our results provide new insights into how these native Hawaiian species will respond to a changing environment, including habitat fragmentation and changing distribution of threats from climate change.     

Staying close to home? Genetic differentiation of rough-toothed dolphins near oceanic islands in the central Pacific Ocean

Rough-toothed dolphins have a worldwide tropical and subtropical distribution, yet little is known about the population structure and social organization of this typically open-ocean species. Although it has been assumed that pelagic dolphins range widely due to the lack of apparent barriers and unpredictable prey distribution, recent evidence suggests rough-toothed dolphins exhibit fidelity to some oceanic islands. Using the most comprehensively extensive dataset for this species to date, we assess the isolation and interchange of rough-toothed dolphins at the regional and oceanic scale within the central Pacific Ocean. Using mtDNA and microsatellite genotyping (nDNA), we analyzed samples of insular communities from the main Hawaiian (Kaua‘i n = 93, O‘ahu n = 9, Hawai‘i n = 57), French Polynesian (n = 70) and Samoan (n = 16) archipelagos, and pelagic samples off the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (n = 18). An overall AMOVA indicated strong genetic differentiation among islands (mtDNA F_ST = 0.265; p < 0.001; nDNA F_ST = 0.038; p < 0.001), as well as among archipelagos (mtDNA F_ST = 0.299; p < 0.001; nDNA F_ST = 0.055; p < 0.001). Shared haplotypes (n = 4) between the archipelagos may be a product of a relatively recent divergence and/or periodic exchange from poorly understood pelagic populations. Analyses using STRUCTURE and GENELAND identified four separate management units among archipelagos and within the Hawaiian Islands. These results confirm the presence of multiple insular populations within the Pacific and island-specific genetic isolation among populations attached to islands in each archipelago. Insular populations seem most prevalent where oceanographic conditions indicate high local productivity or a discontinuity with surrounding oligotrophic areas. Our findings have important implications for a little studied species that faces increasing anthropogenic threats around oceanic islands.     

The effect of isolation,fragmentation, and population bottlenecks on song structure of a Hawaiian honeycreeper

Little is known about how important social behaviors such as song vary within and among populations for any of the endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Habitat loss and non‐native diseases (e.g., avian malaria) have resulted in isolation and fragmentation of Hawaiian honeycreepers within primarily high elevation forests. In this study, we examined how isolation of Hawai'i ‘amakihi (Chlorodrepanis virens) populations within a fragmented landscape influences acoustic variability in song. In the last decade, small, isolated populations of disease tolerant ‘amakihi have been found within low elevation forests, allowing us to record ‘amakihi songs across a large elevational gradient (10–1800 m) that parallels disease susceptibility on Hawai'i island. To understand underlying differences among populations, we examined the role of geographic distance, elevation, and habitat structure on acoustic characteristics of ‘amakihi songs. We found that the acoustic characteristics of ‘amakihi songs and song‐type repertoires varied most strongly across an elevational gradient. Differences in ‘amakihi song types were primarily driven by less complex songs (e.g., fewer frequency changes, shorter songs) of individuals recorded at low elevation sites compared to mid and high elevation populations. The reduced complexity of ‘amakihi songs at low elevation sites is most likely shaped by the effects of habitat fragmentation and a disease‐driven population bottleneck associated with avian malaria, and maintained through isolation, localized song learning and sharing, and cultural drift. These results highlight how a non‐native disease through its influence on population demographics may have also indirectly played a role in shaping the acoustic characteristics of a species.     

Dramatic shifts in Hawaiian monk seal distribution predicted from divergent regional trends

Total estimated abundance of Hawaiian monk seals was just 1,161 individuals in 2008 and this number is decreasing. Most monk seals reside in the remote Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) where the decline is approximately 4%/yr, whereas relatively fewer seals currently occupy the main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). It is widely accepted that the MHI population is increasing, although there are no formal estimates of total abundance, population growth rate or vital rates. This lack of information has hampered efforts to anticipate future scenarios and plan conservation measures. We present the first estimates of MHI monk seal survival and age‐specific reproductive rates. Using these rates, a conservative estimate of current MHI abundance and a previously published stochastic simulation model, we estimate the MHI population growth rate and projected abundance trend. Analogous estimates for the NWHI are derived from a much richer data set. Estimated survival from weaning to age 1 yr is 77% in the MHI, much higher than recent NWHI estimates ranging from 42% to 57%. Moreover, MHI females begin reproducing at a younger age and attain higher birth rates than observed in the NWHI. The estimated MHI intrinsic rate of population growth is 1.07 compared to a 0.89–0.96 range in the NWHI. Assuming an initial abundance of 152 animals in the MHI, projections indicate that if current demographic trends continue, abundance in the NWHI and MHI will equalize in approximately 15 yr. These results underscore the imperative to mitigate the NWHI decline while devoting conservation efforts to foster population growth in the MHI, where documented threats including fishery interactions, direct killing, and disease could rapidly undo the current fragile positive trend.     

Integration of palaeontological, historical, and geographical data on the extinction of koa-finches

Identifying the root causes of extinction or endangerment requires long chronological records that begin before a population started to decline and extend until its extinction or functional extinction. We present a case study of the koa‐finches, genus Rhodacanthis, an extinct group of Hawaiian honeycreepers that was specialized to feed on green pods and seeds of the koa tree or other leguminous plants. Six island populations of koa‐finches are known; four in the Holocene fossil record and two that survived until the 1890s. We document the palaeoecological context of the fossils and identify constraints on the age span of the specimen record for each population using stratigraphic contexts, associated radiometric determinations, and museum specimen data. We estimate the potential geographical range of koa‐finches at the time of human arrival using two methods: assessment of their historical and palaeo‐habitats, and geographical information system mapping of the pre‐human distribution of the koa plant (Acacia koa) and its sister species, the koai‘a plant (Acacia koaia). After integrating the foregoing data with chronological records and distributional maps of the potential forcing agents of extinction, we conclude that at least two extinctions of island populations were due to ecological change in the lowlands in the prehistorical and perhaps the early historical periods. In the same time frame, the koa‐finch populations on Hawai‘i Island became rare and restricted to upland refugia, making them vulnerable to the upland forest harvesting and degradation that was accelerating in the 1890s. Neither climatic variation nor mosquito‐vectored diseases are likely to have caused the observed extinctions. This study illustrates an approach that can be applied to many other extinct and endangered island species to better understand the causes of high extinction rates in the human era.