A model for genetic relationship in areally continuous plant populations

Representations are based on plant populations, continuously distributed over their habitats according to specified density patterns. Migration of genetic material takes place via pollen and seed dispersal. Monoecious plants with arbitrary rates of self-fertilization and dioecious plants are considered. The model was constructed with the intention of determining coefficients of inbreeding and kinship for all locations within the seed population after its dispersal over the habitat, assuming the respective genetic relationships of the parental generation to be known. To display the consequences of single components hidden in the general result, the following specifications have been treated: finite population size combined with random dispersal of seed, equilibrium states for hypothetically infinite population size with “limited” dispersal of pollen and seed, random dispersal of pollen, and random dispersal of seed.     

Size-dependent ESS sex allocation in wind-pollinated cosexual plants: fecundity vs. stature effects

To theoretically investigate the single and compound effects of relative fecundity and relative stature of plants on size-dependent sex allocation (SDS) in wind-pollinated cosexual species, we developed a game model and analysed ESS sex allocation of large and small plants having totally or partially different reproductive resources and different pollen and seed dispersal areas in a population. We found that e.g. when both sized plants have large pollen dispersal areas relative to their seed dispersal areas, which plants are male-biased is largely determined by relative fecundity (t) and relative size of seed dispersal area (k) of the large plants to the small plants: If t >k, large plants tend to be more male-biased even if relative size of pollen dispersal area of large to small plants (l) is smaller than k. If t相似文献   

Limited seed dispersal shapes fine-scale spatial genetic structure in a Neotropical dioecious large-seeded palm

Seed and pollen dispersal contribute to gene flow and shape the genetic patterns of plants over fine spatial scales. We inferred fine-scale spatial genetic structure (FSGS) and estimated realized dispersal distances in Phytelephas aequatorialis, a Neotropical dioecious large-seeded palm. We aimed to explore how seed and pollen dispersal shape this genetic pattern in a focal population. For this purpose, we genotyped 138 seedlings and 99 adults with 20 newly developed microsatellite markers. We tested if rodent-mediated seed dispersal has a stronger influence than insect-mediated pollen dispersal in shaping FSGS. We also tested if pollen dispersal was influenced by the density of male palms around mother palms in order to further explore this ecological process in large-seeded plants. Rodent-mediated dispersal of these large seeds occurred mostly over short distances (mean 34.76 ± 34.06 m) while pollen dispersal distances were two times higher (mean 67.91 ± 38.29 m). The spatial extent of FSGS up to 35 m and the fact that seed dispersal did not increase the distance at which male alleles disperse suggest that spatially limited seed dispersal is the main factor shaping FSGS and contributes only marginally to gene flow within the population. Pollen dispersal distances depended on the density of male palms, decreasing when individuals show a clumped distribution and increasing when they are scattered. Our results show that limited seed dispersal mediated by rodents shapes FSGS in P. aequatorialis, while more extensive pollen dispersal accounts for a larger contribution to gene flow and may maintain high genetic diversity. Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.     

Selective interactions between short-distance pollen and seed dispersal in self-compatible species

In plants, genes may disperse through both pollen and seeds. Here we provide a first theoretical study of the mechanisms and consequences of the joint evolution of pollen and seed dispersal. We focus on hermaphroditic self-compatible species distributed in structured populations, assuming island dispersal of pollen and seeds among small patches of plants within large populations. Three traits are studied: the rate of among-patch seed dispersal, the rate of among-patch pollen dispersal, and the rate of within-patch pollen movement. We first analytically derive the evolutionary equilibrium state of each trait, dissect the pairwise selective interactions, and describe the joint three-trait evolutionary equilibrium under the cost of dispersal and kin competition. These results are then analytically and numerically extended to the case when selfed seeds suffer from depressed competitiveness (inbreeding depression, no heterosis). Finally individual-based simulations are used to account for a more realistic model of inbreeding load. Pollen movement is shown to generate opposite selection pressures on seed dispersal depending on spatial scale: within-patch pollen movement favors seed dispersal, whereas among-patch pollen dispersal inhibits seed dispersal. Seed dispersal selects for short-distance movements of pollen and it selects against long-distance dispersal. These interactions shape the joint evolution of these traits. Kin competition favors among-patch seed dispersal over among-patch pollen dispersal for low costs of within-patch pollen movement (and vice versa for significant costs of within-patch pollen movement). Inbreeding depression favors allogamy through high rates of within- and among-patch pollen movement. Surprisingly, it may select either for or against seed dispersal depending on the cost of among-patch pollen dispersal. Heterosis favors increased among-patch dispersal through pollen and seeds. But because these two stages inhibit each other, their joint evolution might lead to decreased seed dispersal in the presence of heterosis. Of crucial importance are the costs of dispersal.     

Leptokurtic pollen-flow,non-leptokurtic gene-flow in a wind-pollinated herb,Plantago lanceolata L.

Summary The purpose of this study was to simultaneously measure pollen dispersal distance and actual pollen-mediated gene-flow distance in a wind-pollinated herb, Plantago lanceolata. The pollen dispersal distribution, measured as pollen deposition in a wind tunnel, is leptokurtic, as expected from previous studies of wind-pollinated plants. Gene-flow, measured as seeds produced on rows of male-sterile inflorescences in the wind tunnel, is non-leptokurtic, peaking at an intermediate distance. The difference between the two distributions results from the tendency of the pollen grains to cluster. These pollen clusters are the units of gene dispersal, with clusters of intermediate and large size contributing disproportionately to gene-flow. Since many wind-pollinated species show pollen clustering (see text), the common assumption for wind-pollinated plants that gene-flow is leptokurtic requires re-examination. Gene-flow was also measured in an artifical outdoor population of male-steriles, containing a single pollen source plant in the center of the array. The gene flow distribution is significantly platykurtic, and has the same general properties outdoors, where wind speed and turbulence are uncontrolled, as it does in the wind tunnel. I estimated genetic neighborhood size based on my measure of gene-flow in the outdoor population. The estimate shows that populations of Plantago lanceolata will vary in effective number from a few tens of plants to more than five hundred plants, depending on the density of the population in question. Thus, the measured pollen-mediated gene-flow distribution and population density will interact to produce effective population sizes ranging from those in which there is no random genetic drift to those in which random genetic drift plays an important role in determining gene frequencies within and among populations. Despite the platykurtosis in the distribution, pollen-mediated gene dispersal distances are still quite limited, and considerable within and among-population genetic differentiation is to be expected in this species.     

Fine-scale genetic structure and gene dispersal inferences in 10 neotropical tree species

The extent of gene dispersal is a fundamental factor of the population and evolutionary dynamics of tropical tree species, but directly monitoring seed and pollen movement is a difficult task. However, indirect estimates of historical gene dispersal can be obtained from the fine-scale spatial genetic structure of populations at drift-dispersal equilibrium. Using an approach that is based on the slope of the regression of pairwise kinship coefficients on spatial distance and estimates of the effective population density, we compare indirect gene dispersal estimates of sympatric populations of 10 tropical tree species. We re-analysed 26 data sets consisting of mapped allozyme, SSR (simple sequence repeat), RAPD (random amplified polymorphic DNA) or AFLP (amplified fragment length polymorphism) genotypes from two rainforest sites in French Guiana. Gene dispersal estimates were obtained for at least one marker in each species, although the estimation procedure failed under insufficient marker polymorphism, limited sample size, or inappropriate sampling area. Estimates generally suffered low precision and were affected by assumptions regarding the effective population density. Averaging estimates over data sets, the extent of gene dispersal ranged from 150 m to 1200 m according to species. Smaller gene dispersal estimates were obtained in species with heavy diaspores, which are presumably not well dispersed, and in populations with high local adult density. We suggest that limited seed dispersal could indirectly limit effective pollen dispersal by creating higher local tree densities, thereby increasing the positive correlation between pollen and seed dispersal distances. We discuss the potential and limitations of our indirect estimation procedure and suggest guidelines for future studies.     

Modelling the establishment and spread of autotetraploid plants in a spatially heterogeneous environment

The establishment and spread of autotetraploids from an original diploid population in a heterogeneous environment were studied using a stochastic simulation model. Specifically, we investigated the effects of heterogeneous habitats and nonrandom pollen/seed dispersal on the critical value (micro) of unreduced 2n gamete production necessary for the establishment of autotetraploids as predicted by deterministic models. Introduction of a heterogeneous environment with random pollen/seed dispersal had little effect on the micro value. In contrast, incorporating nonrandom pollen/seed dispersal into a homogeneous environment considerably reduced the micro value. Incorporating both heterogeneous habitats and nonrandom pollen/seed dispersal may lead either to an increase or to a decrease in the micro value compared to that with random dispersal, indicating that the two factors interact in a complex way.     

Effective Long-Distance Pollen Dispersal in Centaurea jacea

Background

Agri-environment schemes play an increasingly important role for the conservation of rare plants in intensively managed agricultural landscapes. However, little is known about their effects on gene flow via pollen dispersal between populations of these species.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In a 2-year experiment, we observed effective pollen dispersal from source populations of Centaurea jacea in restored meadows, the most widespread Swiss agri-environment scheme, to potted plants in adjacent intensively managed meadows without other individuals of this species. Potted plants were put in replicated source populations at 25, 50, 100 m and where possible 200 m distance from these source populations. Pollen transfer among isolated plants was prevented by temporary bagging, such that only one isolated plant was accessible for flower visitors at any one time. Because C. jacea is self-incompatible, seed set in single-plant isolates indicated insect mediated effective pollen dispersal from the source population. Seed set was higher in source populations (35.7±4.4) than in isolates (4.8±1.0). Seed set declined from 18.9% of that in source populations at a distance of 25 m to 7.4% at 200 m. At a distance of 200 m seed set was still significantly higher in selfed plants, indicating long-distance effective pollen dispersal up to 200 m. Analyses of covariance suggested that bees contributed more than flies to this long-distance pollen dispersal. We found evidence that pollen dispersal to single-plant isolates was positively affected by the diversity and flower abundance of neighboring plant species in the intensively managed meadow. Furthermore, the decline of the dispersal was less steep when the source population of C. jacea was large.

Conclusions

We conclude that insect pollinators can effectively transfer pollen from source populations of C. jacea over at least 200 m, even when “recipient populations” consisted of single-plant isolates, suggesting that gene flow by pollen over this distance is very likely. Source population size and flowering environment surrounding recipient plants appear to be important factors affecting pollen dispersal in C. jacea. It is conceivable that most insect-pollinated plants in a network of restored sites within intensively managed grassland can form metapopulations, if distances between sites are of similar magnitude as tested here.     

Limiting inbreeding in disjunct and isolated populations of a woody shrub

Pollen movements and mating patterns are key features that influence population genetic structure. When gene flow is low, small populations are prone to increased genetic drift and inbreeding, but naturally disjunct species may have features that reduce inbreeding and contribute to their persistence despite genetic isolation. Using microsatellite loci, we investigated outcrossing levels, family mating parameters, pollen dispersal, and spatial genetic structure in three populations of Hakea oldfieldii, a fire‐sensitive shrub with naturally disjunct, isolated populations prone to reduction in size and extinction following fires. We mapped and genotyped a sample of 102 plants from a large population, and all plants from two smaller populations (28 and 20 individuals), and genotyped 158–210 progeny from each population. We found high outcrossing despite the possibility of geitonogamous pollination, small amounts of biparental inbreeding, a limited number of successful pollen parents within populations, and significant correlated paternity. The number of pollen parents for each seed parent was moderate. There was low but significant spatial genetic structure up to 10 m around plants, but the majority of successful pollen came from outside this area including substantial proportions from distant plants within populations. Seed production varied among seven populations investigated but was not correlated with census population size. We suggest there may be a mechanism to prevent self‐pollination in H. oldfieldii and that high outcrossing and pollen dispersal within populations would promote genetic diversity among the relatively small amount of seed stored in the canopy. These features of the mating system would contribute to the persistence of genetically isolated populations prone to fluctuations in size.     

Seed sex ratio in dioecious plants depends on relative dispersal of pollen and seeds: an example using a chessboard simulation model

Two principles are important for the optimal sex ratio strategy of plants. (1) Sib mating. Because seed dispersal is restricted, sib mating may occur which selects for a female bias in the seed sex ratio. (2) Local resource competition (LRC). If a plant produces pollen its nuclear genes are dispersed in two steps: first through the pollen and then, if the pollen is successful in fertilizing an ovule on another plant, through the seed. If the plant produces an ovule, its genes are dispersed only through the seed. By making pollen instead of ovules the offspring of a single plant is then spread out over a wider area. This reduces the chance that genetically related individuals are close together and need to compete for the same resource. The effect is the strongest if pollen is dispersed over a much wider area than seeds. Less LRC for paternally vs. maternally derived offspring selects for a male bias in sex allocation. We study the above‐mentioned opposite effects in dioecious plants (with separate male and female individuals), with maternal control over the sex ratio (fraction males) in the seeds. In a two‐dimensional spatial model female‐biased sex ratios are found when both pollen and seed dispersal are severely restricted. If pollen disperses over a wider area than seeds, which is probably the common situation in plants, the seed sex ratio becomes male‐biased. If pollen and seeds are both dispersed over a wide area, the sex ratio approaches 0.5. Our results do not change if the offspring of brother–sister matings are less fit because of inbreeding depression.     

Assessing the risk of gene flow from genetically modified trees carrying mitigation transgenes

The increasing use of genetically modified (GM) plants has raised concerns about the escape of transgenes to conventional populations. To counteract possible fitness advantages of GM plants, an advantageous ‘primary transgene’ may be linked to a ‘mitigation’ transgene that is selectively disfavored. A risk related to this technique is the possible break-up of the transgenes. This may lead to the establishment of genotypes that only express the primary transgenic trait and are therefore selectively favored over both conventional and GM genotypes. We study here how the establishment of break-up genotypes in tree populations depends on life history, pollen dispersal kernels, and the linkage between transgenes. To this end, we model the dynamics of an initially homozygous GM population and a conventional population growing next to each other. The simulations are based on a spatially explicit simulation model for population-genotype dynamics. Pollen and seed dispersal are described by fat-tailed dispersal kernels. Break-up of transgenes is due subsequent crossing of GM and conventional genotypes. The spatial pattern of pollen and seed dispersal causes break-up and establishment of new invasive genotypes to occur mostly in the conventional population. The amount of individuals of these genotypes established in the conventional population depends on the interaction between life-history traits, pollen dispersal distances and the linkage of the transgenes. Thus, risk assessment of transgene break-up requires information on the genetics, local dynamics, and dispersal of GM and conventional varieties. The approach presented here provides a tool for combining these different sources of information, and it contributes to the formulation of general rules for the management of GM tree populations.     

Plant dispersal, neighbourhood size and isolation by distance

A theoretical relationship between isolation by distance or spatial genetic structure (SGS) and seed and pollen dispersal is tested using extensive spatial-temporal simulations. Although for animals Wright's neighbourhood size N(e) = 4pisigma(2)(t) has been ascertained also, where sigma(2)(t) is the axial variance of distances between parents and offspring, and it was recently confirmed that N(e) = 4pi(sigma(2)(f) + sigma(2)(m))/2 when dispersal of females and males differ, the situation for plants had not been established. This article shows that for a very wide range of conditions, neighbourhood size defined by Crawford's formula N(e) = 4pi(sigma(2)(s) + sigma(2)(p)/2) fully determines SGS, even when dispersal variances of seed (sigma(2)(s)) and pollen sigma(2)(p)) differ strongly. Further, self-fertilization with rate s acts as zero-distance pollen dispersal, and N(e) = 4pi[sigma(2)(s) + sigma(2)(p)(1 - s)/2] fully determines SGS, for most cases where there are both likely parameter values and substantial SGS. Moreover, for most cases, there is a loglinear relationship, I(1) = 0.587 - 0.117 ln(N(e)), between SGS, as measured by I(1), Moran's coefficient for adjacent individuals, and N(e). However, there are several biologically significant exceptions, namely for very low or large N(e), SGS exceeds the loglinear values. There are also important exceptions to Crawford's formula. First, plants with low seed dispersal, high outcross pollen dispersal and high selfing rate show larger SGS than predicted. Second, in plants with very low (near zero) seed dispersal, selfing decreases SGS, opposite expectations. Finally, in some cases seed dispersal is more critical than pollen dispersal, in a manner inconsistent with Crawford's formula.     

Strategies for conservation for disturbed Prosopis alba (Leguminosae, Mimosoidae) forests based on mating system and pollen dispersal parameters

Prosopis species forests in Argentina are increasingly fragmented in the last years mainly by the deforestation activity without any reforestation strategy, the establishment of different crop plantations, and natural fires. The consequence of habitat fragmentation on the genetic potential of Prosopis alba requires a fine-scale analysis of population structure, in particular mating system and pollen dispersal. By means of short sequences repeats, we analyzed a fragmented population of this species in Santiago del Estero (Argentina). Most genetic variation was observed among families within zones (65.5%), whereas the lowest proportion corresponded to the differentiation among zones (2.8%). The fine analysis of structure at family level suggests that this population is complete outcrosser and there is a low but significant biparental inbreeding. Outcrossing rates differ among mother plants and the proportion of full sibs within mother plants ranged from 64% for seeds proceeding from the same pod to 10% for seeds from different pods. The average pollen dispersal distance was estimated to be among 5.36 and 30.92 m by using the KinDist or TwoGener approach. About seven pollen donors are siring each progeny array and the number of seed trees necessary for seed collection aiming to retain an effective population size of 100 was estimated in 16–39 individuals depending on the relatedness estimator used. Pollen and seed dispersal would be limited, what determines the need of conserving short distant patches to avoid the effects of inbreeding and drift within populations as a consequence of intensive use resource for agriculture.     

To succeed globally, disperse locally: effects of local pollen and seed dispersal on tetraploid establishment

Newly formed tetraploid plants in sympatry with their diploid progenitors should face significant obstacles to persistence and population establishment because of low-fitness triploids formed by cross-ploidy pollinations. Prior models have found restrictive conditions for a minority tetraploid subpopulation to persist. A stochastic spatial model, parameterized using snow buttercups (Ranunculus adoneus), was used to examine the influence of limited seed and pollen dispersal distances on the success of minority tetraploids and the interaction of these factors with different rates of self-pollination and tetraploid advantage. Higher rates of self-pollination and increased tetraploid advantage increase the probability of tetraploid persistence. Limiting the dispersal of seeds and pollen further increases the positive impact of any given level of self-pollination and tetraploid advantage. Taxa with short-distance seed and pollen dispersal should face much less stringent barriers to sympatric polyploid speciation than taxa with long-distance dispersal patterns. With short-distance seed and pollen dispersal, polyploid speciation should be possible in the absence of ecological differentiation or recurrent polyploid formation through unreduced gametes.     

Directional seed and pollen dispersal and their separate effects on anisotropy of fine‐scale spatial genetic structure among seedlings in a dioecious,wind‐pollinated,and wind‐dispersed tree species,Cercidiphyllum japonicum

Prevailing directions of seed and pollen dispersal may induce anisotropy of the fine‐scale spatial genetic structure (FSGS), particularly in wind‐dispersed and wind‐pollinated species. To examine the separate effects of directional seed and pollen dispersal on FSGS, we conducted a population genetics study for a dioecious, wind‐pollinated, and wind‐dispersed tree species, Cercidiphyllum japonicum Sieb. et Zucc, based on genotypes at five microsatellite loci of 281 adults of a population distributed over a ca. 80 ha along a stream and 755 current‐year seedlings. A neighborhood model approach with exponential‐power‐von Mises functions indicated shorter seed dispersal (mean = 69.1 m) and much longer pollen dispersal (mean = 870.6 m), effects of dispersal directions on the frequencies of seed and pollen dispersal, and the directions with most frequent seed and pollen dispersal (prevailing directions). Furthermore, the distance of effective seed dispersal within the population was estimated to depend on the dispersal direction and be longest at the direction near the prevailing direction. Therefore, patterns of seed and pollen dispersal may be affected by effective wind directions during the period of respective dispersals. Isotropic FSGS and spatial sibling structure analyses indicated a significant FSGS among the seedlings generated by the limited seed dispersal, but anisotropic analysis for the seedlings indicated that the strength of the FSGS varied with directions between individuals and was weakest at a direction near the directions of the most frequent and longest seed dispersal but far from the prevailing direction of pollen dispersal. These results suggest that frequent and long‐distance seed dispersal around the prevailing direction weakens the FSGS around the prevailing direction. Therefore, spatially limited but directional seed dispersal would determine the existence and direction of FSGS among the seedlings.     

Using genetic markers to directly estimate gene flow and reproductive success parameters in plants on the basis of naturally regenerated seedlings

Estimating seed and pollen gene flow in plants on the basis of samples of naturally regenerated seedlings can provide much needed information about "realized gene flow," but seems to be one of the greatest challenges in plant population biology. Traditional parentage methods, because of their inability to discriminate between male and female parentage of seedlings, unless supported by uniparentally inherited markers, are not capable of precisely describing seed and pollen aspects of gene flow realized in seedlings. Here, we describe a maximum-likelihood method for modeling female and male parentage in a local plant population on the basis of genotypic data from naturally established seedlings and when the location and genotypes of all potential parents within the population are known. The method models female and male reproductive success of individuals as a function of factors likely to influence reproductive success (e.g., distance of seed dispersal, distance between mates, and relative fecundity--i.e., female and male selection gradients). The method is designed to account for levels of seed and pollen gene flow into the local population from unsampled adults; therefore, it is well suited to isolated, but also wide-spread natural populations, where extensive seed and pollen dispersal complicates traditional parentage analyses. Computer simulations were performed to evaluate the utility and robustness of the model and estimation procedure and to assess how the exclusion power of genetic markers (isozymes or microsatellites) affects the accuracy of the parameter estimation. In addition, the method was applied to genotypic data collected in Scots pine (isozymes) and oak (microsatellites) populations to obtain preliminary estimates of long-distance seed and pollen gene flow and the patterns of local seed and pollen dispersal in these species.     

Multiscale spatial genetic structure within and between populations of wild cherry trees in nuclear genotypes and chloroplast haplotypes

Spatial genetic structure (SGS) of plants mainly depends on the effective population size and gene dispersal. Maternally inherited loci are expected to have higher genetic differentiation between populations and more intensive SGS within populations than biparentally inherited loci because of smaller effective population sizes and fewer opportunities of gene dispersal in the maternally inherited loci. We investigated biparentally inherited nuclear genotypes and maternally inherited chloroplast haplotypes of microsatellites in 17 tree populations of three wild cherry species under different conditions of tree distribution and seed dispersal. As expected, interpopulation genetic differentiation was 6–9 times higher in chloroplast haplotypes than in nuclear genotypes. This difference indicated that pollen flow 4–7 times exceeded seed flow between populations. However, no difference between nuclear and chloroplast loci was detected in within‐population SGS intensity due to their substantial variation among the populations. The SGS intensity tended to increase as trees became more aggregated, suggesting that tree aggregation biased pollen and seed dispersal distances toward shorter. The loss of effective seed dispersers, Asian black bears, did not affect the SGS intensity probably because of mitigation of the bear loss by other vertebrate dispersers and too few tree generations after the bear loss to alter SGS. The findings suggest that SGS is more variable in smaller spatial scales due to various ecological factors in local populations.     

Effects of population size and metapopulation dynamics on a mating-system polymorphism

The evolutionary dynamics of neutral alleles under the Wright-Fisher model are well understood. Similarly, the effect of population turnover on neutral genetic diversity in a metapopulation has attracted recent attention in theoretical studies. Here we present the results of computer simulations of a simple model that considers the effects of finite population size and metapopulation dynamics on a mating-system polymorphism involving selfing and outcrossing morphs. The details of the model are based on empirical data from dimorphic populations of the annual plant Eichhornia paniculata, but the results are also of relevance to species with density-dependent selfing rates in general. In our model, the prior selfing rate is determined by two alleles segregating at a single diploid locus. After prior selfing occurs, some remaining ovules are selfed through competing self-fertilisation in finite populations as a result of random mating among gametes. Fitness differences between the mating-system morphs were determined by inbreeding depression and pollen discounting in a context-dependent manner. Simulation results showed evidence of frequency dependence in the action of pollen discounting and inbreeding depression in finite populations. In particular, as a result of selfing in outcrossers through random mating among gametes, selfers experienced a "fixation bias" through drift, even when the mating-system locus was selectively neutral. In a metapopulation, high colony turnover generally favoured the fixation of the outcrossing morph, because inbreeding depression reduced opportunities for colony establishment by selfers through seed dispersal. Our results thus demonstrate that population size and metapopulation processes can lead to evolutionary dynamics involving pollen and seed dispersal that are not predicted for large populations with stable demography.     

Evaluating the influence of different aspects of habitat fragmentation on mating patterns and pollen dispersal in the bird-pollinated Banksia sphaerocarpa var. caesia

Habitat fragmentation can significantly affect mating and pollen dispersal patterns in plant populations, although the differential effects of the various aspects of fragmentation are poorly understood. In this study, we used eight microsatellite loci to investigate the effect of fragmentation on the mating system and pollen dispersal within one large and eight small population remnants of Banksia sphaerocarpa var. caesia, a bird-pollinated shrub in the southern agricultural region of Western Australia. The large population had a much larger neighbourhood size and lower selfing rate, maternal pollen pool differentiation and within-plot mean pollen dispersal distance than the small populations. Outcrossing was consistently high and ranged from 85.7% ± 2.6 to 98.5% ± 0.9, and mating patterns suggested nearest-neighbour pollination. Pollen immigration into small populations ranged from 2.8% ± 1.8 to 16.5% ± 3.2. Using the small populations, we tested for correlations between various fragmentation variables and mating system and pollen dispersal parameters. We found significant negative linear relationships between population isolation and outcrossing rate; population shape and neighbourhood size; and conspecific density and mean pollen dispersal distance. There were significant positive linear relationships between population shape and pollen pool differentiation and between population size and number of different fathers per seed crop. Our results suggest that birds may use a series of fragmented populations as a vegetation corridor while foraging across the landscape and that population connectivity is a critical determinant of pollinator visitation. Our results also suggest that the effect of a linear population shape on the mating system and pollen dispersal is routinely underestimated.     

Estimating seed and pollen movement in a monoecious plant: a hierarchical Bayesian approach integrating genetic and ecological data

The scale of seed and pollen movement in plants has a critical influence on population dynamics and interspecific interactions, as well as on their capacity to respond to environmental change through migration or local adaptation. However, dispersal can be challenging to quantify. Here, we present a Bayesian model that integrates genetic and ecological data to simultaneously estimate effective seed and pollen dispersal parameters and the parentage of sampled seedlings. This model is the first developed for monoecious plants that accounts for genotyping error and treats dispersal from within and beyond a plot in a fully consistent manner. The flexible Bayesian framework allows the incorporation of a variety of ecological variables, including individual variation in seed production, as well as multiple sources of uncertainty. We illustrate the method using data from a mixed population of red oak (Quercus rubra, Q. velutina, Q. falcata) in the NC piedmont. For simulated test data sets, the model successfully recovered the simulated dispersal parameters and pedigrees. Pollen dispersal in the example population was extensive, with an average father-mother distance of 178 m. Estimated seed dispersal distances at the piedmont site were substantially longer than previous estimates based on seed-trap data (average 128 m vs. 9.3 m), suggesting that, under some circumstances, oaks may be less dispersal-limited than is commonly thought, with a greater potential for range shifts in response to climate change.