浙江定海次生林内物种丰富度与生物量和生产力关系的环境依赖性

迄今生物多样性与生态系统功能关系的研究主要在物种组成随机配置的人工生态系统中进行, 在自然生态系统中研究较少, 且未考虑环境因子如何影响生态系统功能及其与生物多样性的关系。本研究选取亚热带广泛分布的次生林为研究对象, 利用模型拟合的方法, 探讨亚热带次生林中物种丰富度与生物量和生产力之间的关系, 以及环境因子(海拔、坡度、坡向、土层厚度)和次生林恢复时间(林龄)对生物量、生产力、物种丰富度与生物量和生产力间关系的影响。结果表明, 当不考虑环境因子时, 物种丰富度与生物量之间存在显著的线性正相关关系, 而与生产力之间存在显著的二次关系(先增加后减少的驼峰型)。当考虑环境因子时, 个体密度和土层厚度对生物量具有显著影响, 而环境因子对生产力并无显著效应。在坡度较陡、坡向朝南及土层较厚的环境条件下, 物种丰富度与生物量具有显著的线性正相关关系; 而在坡度较缓、坡向朝北及土层较薄的环境条件下, 物种丰富度不影响生物量。在较高海拔环境条件下, 生产力随物种丰富度先增加后减少(驼峰形状), 而在其他环境条件下, 生产力均不响应物种丰富度。以上结果说明自然森林生态系统中物种丰富度与生物量和生产力的关系存在差异, 且其相互间的关系依赖于环境因子。     

Extinctions in a spatial model of fossil communities subject to correlated environmental disturbance

We present a spatial model to study the behaviour of species communities subjected to environmental stress in the form of coloured noise, focusing on long-time changes of time scales larger than 1 ka. The sensitivity to environmental change is introduced by assigning each species with an optimal value of a certain environmental variable like e.g., the temperature, and with a fitness function having the form of a Gaussian. Each species is represented by a point on a surface and competes with neighbours. Species can evolve to new species with a different optimal value, or they can migrate to regions with better environmental conditions. We find that coloured noise can prompt sudden extinctions in similarity with the fossil record. The model also reproduces the well-known fact that that eurytopic species (generalists) are favoured during environmental stresses, and shows that a strong environmental gradient may ameliorate the species performance.     

An evolutionary tolerance model explaining spatial patterns in species richness under environmental gradients and geometric constraints

In this study, we developed a simulation model based on the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of geographical ranges, to understand the role of species' environmental tolerances and the strength of the environmental gradient in determining spatial patterns in species richness. Using an one-dimensional space, we present the model and dissect its parameters. Also, we test the ability of the model to simulate richness in complex two-dimensional domains and to fit real patterns in species richness, using South American Tyrannidae as an example. We found that a mid-spatial peak in species richness arises spontaneously under conditions of high environmental tolerances and/or a weak environmental gradient, since this condition causes wide species' geographic ranges, which are constrained by domain's boundary and tend to overlap in the middle. Our model was also a good predictor of real patterns in species richness, especially under conditions of high environmental strength and small species' tolerance. We conclude that this kind of spatial simulation models based on species' physiological tolerance may be an important tool to understand the evolutionary dynamics of species' geographic ranges and in spatial patterns of species richness.     

Roles of resource and partner availability in sex determination in a parasitic copepod

Because sexuality plays an essential role in gene transmission and consequently in the evolution of species, investment into male or female function constitutes a key factor in the reproductive success of individuals. Environmental sex determination permits adaptive sex choice under unpredictable environmental conditions, where the environment affects sex-specific fitness, and where offspring can predict their likely adult status by monitoring an appropriate environmental cue. The parasitic copepod Pachypygus gibber displays three sexual phenotypes (i.e. one female and two kinds of male) which are environmentally determined (i.e. after conception and in response to environmental cues). Here, we report an experimental analysis on the combined action, during larval development, of availability of food resources and sexual partners in the sex determination of this species.     

Functional redundancy in heterogeneous environments: implications for conservation

It has been argued that one of the best ways to conserve biological diversity is to maintain the integrity of functional processes within communities, and this can be accomplished by assessing how much ecological redundancy exists in communities. Evidence suggests, however, that the functional roles species play are subject to the influences of local environmental conditions. Species may appear to perform the same function (i.e. be redundant) under a restricted set of conditions, yet their functional roles may vary in naturally heterogeneous environments. Incorporating the environmental context into ecological experiments would provide a critical perspective for examining functional redundancy among species.     

Functional rarity of plants in German hay meadows — Patterns on the species level and mismatches with community species richness

Functional rarity (FR) — a feature combining a species'' rarity with the distinctiveness of its traits — is a promising tool to better understand the ecological importance of rare species and consequently to protect functional diversity more efficiently. However, we lack a systematic understanding of FR on both the species level (which species are functionally rare and why) and the community level (how is FR associated with biodiversity and environmental conditions). Here, we quantify FR for 218 plant species from German hay meadows on a local, regional, and national scale by combining data from 6500 vegetation relevés and 15 ecologically relevant traits. We investigate the association between rarity and trait distinctiveness on different spatial scales via correlation measures and show which traits lead to low or high trait distinctiveness via distance‐based redundancy analysis. We test how species richness and FR are correlated, and use boosted regression trees to determine environmental conditions that are driving species richness and FR. On the local scale, only rare species showed high trait distinctiveness while on larger spatial scales rare and common species showed high trait distinctiveness. As infrequent trait attributes (e.g., legumes, low clonality) led to higher trait distinctiveness, we argue that functionally rare species are either specialists or transients. While specialists occupy a particular niche in hay meadows leading to lower rarity on larger spatial scales, transients display distinct but maladaptive traits resulting in high rarity across all spatial scales. More functionally rare species than expected by chance occurred in species‐poor communities indicating that they prefer environmental conditions differing from characteristic conditions of species‐rich hay meadows. Finally, we argue that functionally rare species are not necessarily relevant for nature conservation because many were transients from surrounding habitats. However, FR can facilitate our understanding of why species are rare in a habitat and under which conditions these species occur.     

How do steppe plants follow their optimal environmental conditions or persist under suboptimal conditions? The differing strategies of annuals and perennials

For a species to be able to respond to environmental change, it must either succeed in following its optimal environmental conditions or in persisting under suboptimal conditions, but we know very little about what controls these capacities. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) for 135 plant species from the Algerian steppes. We interpreted low false‐positive rates as reflecting a high capacity to follow optimal environmental conditions and high false‐negative rates as a high capacity to persist under suboptimal environmental conditions. We also measured functional traits in the field and built a unique plant trait database for the North‐African steppe. For both perennial and annual species, we explored how these two capacities can be explained by species traits and whether relevant trait values reflect species strategies or biases in SDMs. We found low false‐positive rates in species with small seeds, flowers attracting specialist pollinators, and specialized distributions (among annuals and perennials), low root:shoot ratios, wide root‐systems, and large leaves (perennials only) (R² = .52–58). We found high false‐negative rates in species with marginal environmental distribution (among annuals and perennials), small seeds, relatively deep roots, and specialized distributions (annuals) or large leaves, wide root‐systems, and monocarpic life cycle (perennials) (R² = .38 for annuals and 0.65 for perennials). Overall, relevant traits are rarely indicative of the possible biases of SDMs, but rather reflect the species' reproductive strategy, dispersal ability, stress tolerance, and pollination strategies. Our results suggest that wide undirected dispersal in annual species and efficient resource acquisition in perennial species favor both capacities, whereas short life spans in perennial species favor persistence in suboptimal environmental conditions and flowers attracting specialist pollinators in perennial and annual species favor following optimal environmental conditions. Species that neither follow nor persist will be at risk under future environmental change.     

Environmental governance for urgent and uncertain problems

Environmental governance aims to support positive ecological outcomes by establishing effective joint decision-making processes. Yet, complex environmental problems, such as invasive species management, often require urgent action under conditions of uncertainty. Establishing clear and workable environmental governance arrangements in these circumstances can be challenging, or even overlooked completely, in the rush to take action. We undertook an exploratory study, involving semi-structured interviews with 15 policy-makers and scientists, to examine the proposition that some aspects of environmental governance can be more important than others when urgent action is required under conditions of uncertainty. We analysed qualitative data regarding the major decisions points of a case study of invasive species management in Tasmania, Australia. We identified specific elements of governance that, when used under conditions of urgency and uncertainty, can: (a) undermine the ability to establish effective governance arrangements over the longer-term; or alternatively (b) lay the foundation for inclusive and adaptable governance arrangements. Aspects of environmental governance that can be more important than others when responding to urgent and uncertain problems relate to: assessing context; establishing a temporary task-force and setting goals; co-producing knowledge with stakeholders; engaging early; and clarifying and communicating responsibilities and governance arrangements. From our findings, we pose questions for policy-makers and practitioners to ask when responding to urgent problems, creating an opportunity to establish basic governance arrangements even when immediate action is required. These basic arrangements can have the capacity to evolve and respond to increasing levels of certainty, complexity and inclusion.     

Preadapted for invasiveness: do species traits or their plastic response to shading differ between invasive and non‐invasive plant species in their native range?

Aim Species capable of vigorous growth under a wide range of environmental conditions should have a higher chance of becoming invasive after introduction into new regions. High performance across environments can be achieved either by constitutively expressed traits that allow for high resource uptake under different environmental conditions or by adaptive plasticity of traits. Here we test whether invasive and non‐invasive species differ in presumably adaptive plasticity. Location Europe (for native species); the rest of the world and North America in particular (for alien species). Methods We selected 14 congeneric pairs of European herbaceous species that have all been introduced elsewhere. One species of each pair is highly invasive elsewhere in the world, particularly so in North America, whereas the other species has not become invasive or has spread only to a limited degree. We grew native plant material of the 28 species under shaded and non‐shaded conditions in a common garden experiment, and measured biomass production and morphological traits that are frequently related to shade tolerance and avoidance. Results Invasive species had higher shoot–root ratios, tended to have longer leaf‐blades, and produced more biomass than congeneric non‐invasive species both under shaded and non‐shaded conditions. Plants responded to shading by increasing shoot–root ratios and specific leaf area. Surprisingly, these shade‐induced responses, which are widely considered to be adaptive, did not differ between invasive and non‐invasive species. Main conclusions We conclude that high biomass production across different light environments pre‐adapts species to become invasive, and that this is not mediated by plasticities of the morphological traits that we measured.     

Natural history predicts patterns of thermal vulnerability in amphibians from the Atlantic Rainforest of Brazil

In the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest (AF), amphibians (625 species) face habitat degradation leading to stressful thermal conditions that constrain animal activity (e.g., foraging and reproduction). Data on thermal ecology for these species are still scarce. We tested the hypothesis that environmental occupation affects the thermal tolerance of amphibian species more than their phylogenetic relationships. We evaluated patterns of thermal tolerance of 47 amphibian species by assessing critical thermal maxima and warming tolerances, relating these variables with ecological covariates (e.g., adult macro‐ and microhabitat and site of larval development). We used mean and maximum environmental temperature, ecological covariates, and morphological measurements in the phylogenetic generalized least squares model selection to evaluate which traits better predict thermal tolerance. We did not recover phylogenetic signal under a Brownian model; our results point to a strong association between critical thermal maxima and habitat and development site. Forest species were less tolerant to warm temperatures than open area or generalist species. Species with larvae that develop in lentic environment were more tolerant than those in lotic ones. Thus, species inhabiting forest microclimates are more vulnerable to the synergistic effect of habitat loss and climate change. We use radar charts as a quick evaluation tool for thermal risk diagnoses using aspects of natural history as axes.     

Nurse plant effects on plant species richness in drylands: The role of grazing,rainfall and species specificity

The outcome of plant–plant interactions depends on environmental (e.g. grazing and climatic conditions) and species-specific attributes (e.g. life strategy and dispersal mode of the species involved). However, the joint effects of such factors on pairwise plant–plant interactions, and how they modulate the role of these interactions at the community level, have not been addressed before. We assessed how these species-specific (life strategy and dispersal) and environmental (grazing and rainfall) factors affected the co-occurrence of 681 plant species pairs on open woodlands in south-eastern Australia. Species-specific attributes affected the co-occurrence of most species pairs, with higher co-occurrence levels dominating for drought-intolerant species. The dispersal mechanism only affected drought-tolerant beneficiaries, with more positive co-occurrences for vertebrate-dispersed species. Conversely, the percentage of facilitated species at the community scale declined under higher rainfall availabilities. A significant grazing × rainfall interaction on the percentage of facilitated species suggests that grazing-mediated protection was important under low to moderate, but not high, rainfall availabilities. This study improves our ability to predict changes in plant–plant interactions along environmental gradients, and their effect on community species richness, by highlighting that: (1) species-specific factors were more important than environmental conditions as drivers of a large amount (～37%) of the pairwise co-occurrences evaluated; (2) grazing and rainfall interaction drive the co-occurrence among different species in the studied communities, and (3) the effect of nurse plants on plant species richness will depend on the relative dominance of particular dispersal mechanisms or life strategies prone to be facilitated.     

Biodiversity change under adaptive community dynamics

Compositional change is a ubiquitous response of ecological communities to environmental drivers of global change, but is often regarded as evidence of declining “biotic integrity” relative to historical baselines. Adaptive compositional change, however, is a foundational idea in evolutionary biology, whereby changes in gene frequencies within species boost population-level fitness, allowing populations to persist as the environment changes. Here, we present an analogous idea for ecological communities based on core concepts of fitness and selection. Changes in community composition (i.e., frequencies of genetic differences among species) in response to environmental change should normally increase the average fitnessof community members. We refer to compositional changes that improve the functional match, or “fit,” between organisms' traits and their environment as adaptive community dynamics. Environmental change (e.g., land-use change) commonly reduces the fit between antecedent communities and new environments. Subsequent change in community composition in response to environmental changes, however, should normally increase community-level fit, as the success of at least some constituent species increases. We argue that adaptive community dynamics are likely to improve or maintain ecosystem function (e.g., by maintaining productivity). Adaptive community responses may simultaneously produce some changes that are considered societally desirable (e.g., increased carbon storage) and others that are undesirable (e.g., declines of certain species), just as evolutionary responses within species may be deemed desirable (e.g., evolutionary rescue of an endangered species) or undesirable (e.g., enhanced virulence of an agricultural pest). When assessing possible management interventions, it is important to distinguish between drivers of environmental change (e.g., undesired climate warming) and adaptive community responses, which may generate some desirable outcomes. Efforts to facilitate, accept, or resist ecological change require separate consideration of drivers and responses, and may highlight the need to reconsider preferences for historical baseline communities over communities that are better adapted to the new conditions.     

Soil water availability effects on seed germination account for species segregation in semiarid roadslopes

Previous studies report that the low colonisation success on eroded roadslopes of semiarid environments is controlled by microsite limitations. We predicted that soil water availability, through its effect on seed germination, is a determinant factor in the colonisation process of roadslopes in semiarid environments. Moreover, we predicted that the success of species establishment on the harshest roadslope conditions (i.e., south-facing roadcuts) is either due to the ability of seeds to germinate fast at low water potentials (colonising species) or to the ability of plants to sprout (resistant species). Specifically we present evidence for: (1) soil drying occurs faster on roadcuts than on roadfills after a rainfall event; (2) germination is a filtering process that influences the success of species establishment on roadslopes; (3) species able to colonise successfully south-facing roadcuts have higher germination rates and a shorter time to germination under water-stress conditions than species able to colonise successfully but exclusively the most favourable roadslopes (i.e., roadfills); (4) species that live on south-facing roadcuts and have the ability to sprout do not necessarily germinate with germinating rates and speeds as high as species that colonise successfully these slopes but are unable to sprout. To test these hypotheses we compared water dynamics in the soil among roadslope types and aspects as well as the seed ability to germinate at low water potentials among species showing different regeneration strategies and establishment success on roadslopes. Soil water availability after rainfalls occurring during the germination period played a major role in the germination of seeds. The patterns of seed germination under water-stress conditions were consistent with the success of colonising species on roadslopes and with the distribution of adult plants in the roadslopes 8 years after these latter were built. We discuss the usefulness of these results for the improvement of revegetation projects in semiarid areas by means of an appropriate selection of species adapted to the local environmental conditions. We suggest that the ability of species to germinate under water stress could be an indication of a species’ potential for success under semiarid conditions. Responsible Editor: John McPherson Cheeseman.     

Vegetation,environment, and time: The origination and termination of ecosystems

Terrestrial ecosystems originate when particular plant species attain dominance at specific locations under specific environmental regimes. Ecosystems terminate, gradually or abruptly, when the dominant species or functional types are replaced by others, usually owing to environmental change or severe and irreversible disturbance. Assessing whether current ecosystems are sustainable in the face of future environmental change can be aided by examining the range of environmental variation those ecosystems have experienced in the past, and by determining the environmental conditions under which those ecosystems arose. The range of environmental variation depends on the time scale at which it is assessed. A narrow time span (e.g. 200–300 years) may underestimate the range of variation within which an ecosystem is sustainable, and it may also underestimate the risk of major transformation or disruption of that ecosystem by environmental change. Longer time spans (e.g. 1000–2000 years) increase the range of variation, by encompassing a larger sample of natural variability as well as non‐stationary variability in the earth system. Most modern ecosystems disappear when the time span is expanded to 10000–15 000 years owing to secular changes in earth's climate system. Paleo‐ecological records can pinpoint the time of origination of specific ecosystems, and paleo‐environmental records can reveal the specific environmental changes that led to development of those ecosystems and the range of environmental variation under which those ecosystems have maintained themselves in the past. This information can help identify critical environmental thresholds beyond which specific modern ecosystems can no longer be sustained.     

Variation in defence strategies in two species of the genus Beilschmiedia under differing soil nutrient and rainfall conditions

The relationships between various leaf functional traits that are important in plant growth (e.g., specific leaf area) have been investigated in recent studies; however, research in this context on plants that are highly protected by chemical defences, particularly resource-demanding nitrogen-based defence, is lacking. We collected leaves from cyanogenic (N-defended) Beilschmiedia collina B. Hyland and acyanogenic (C-defended) Beilschmiedia tooram (F. M. Bailey) B. Hyland at high- and low-soil nutrient sites in two consecutive years that varied significantly in rainfall. We then measured the relationships between chemical defence and morphological and functional leaf traits under the different environmental conditions. We found that the two species differed significantly in their resource allocation to defence as well as leaf morphology and function. The N defended species had a higher leaf nitrogen concentration, whereas the C-defended species had higher amounts of C-based chemical defences (i.e., total phenolics and condensed tannins). The C-defended species also tended to have higher force to fracture and increased leaf toughness. In B. collina, cyanogenic glycoside concentration was higher with higher rainfall, but not with higher soil nutrients. Total phenolic concentration was higher at the high soil nutrient site in B. tooram, but lower in B. collina; however, with higher rainfall an increase was found in B. tooram, while phenolics decreased in B. collina. Condensed tannin concentration decreased in both species with rainfall and nutrient availability. We conclude that chemical defence is correlated with leaf functional traits and that variation in environmental resources affects this correlation.     

Life history strategies of stream fishes linked to predictors of hydrologic stability

Life history theory provides a framework to understand environmental change based on species strategies for survival and reproduction under stable, cyclical, or stochastic environmental conditions. We evaluated environmental predictors of fish life history strategies in 20 streams intersecting a national park within the Potomac River basin in eastern North America. We sampled stream sites during 2018–2019 and collected 3801 individuals representing 51 species within 10 taxonomic families. We quantified life history strategies for species from their coordinates in an ordination space defined by trade‐offs in spawning season duration, fecundity, and parental care characteristic of opportunistic, periodic, and equilibrium strategies. Our analysis revealed important environmental predictors: Abundance of opportunistic strategists increased with low‐permeability soils that produce flashy runoff dynamics and decreased with karst terrain (carbonate bedrock) where groundwater inputs stabilize stream flow and temperature. Conversely, abundance of equilibrium strategists increased in karst terrain indicating a response to more stable environmental conditions. Our study indicated that fish community responses to groundwater and runoff processes may be explained by species traits for survival and reproduction. Our findings also suggest the utility of life history theory for understanding ecological responses to destabilized environmental conditions under global climate change.     

Biodiversity effects on productivity and stability of marine macroalgal communities: the role of environmental context

The influence of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning has been the focus of much recent research, but the role of environmental context and the mechanisms by which it may influence diversity effects on production and stability remain poorly understood. We assembled marine macroalgal communities in two mesocosm experiments that varied nutrient supply, and at four field sites that differed naturally in environmental conditions. Concordant with theory, nutrient addition promoted positive species richness effects on algal growth in the first mesocosm experiment; however, it tended to weaken the positive diversity relationship found under ambient conditions in a second experiment the next year. In the field experiments, species richness increased algal biomass production at two of four sites. Together, these experiments indicate that diversity effects on algal biomass production are strongly influenced by environmental conditions that vary over space and time. In decomposing the net biodiversity effect into its component mechanisms, seven of the eight experimental settings showed positive complementarity effects (suggesting facilitation or complementary resource use) countered by negative selection effects (i.e. enhanced growth in mixture of otherwise slow growing species) to varying degrees. Under no conditions, including nutrient enrichment, did we find evidence of positive selection effects commonly thought to drive positive diversity effects. Species richness enhanced stability of algal community biomass across a range of environmental settings in our field experiments. Hence, while species richness can increase production, enhanced stability is also an important functional outcome of maintaining diverse marine macroalgal communities.     

Effects of foundation species genotypic diversity on subordinate species richness in an assembling community

Foundation (dominant or matrix) species play a key role in structuring plant communities, influencing processes from population to ecosystem scales. However, the effects of genotypic diversity of foundation species on these processes have not been thoroughly assessed in the context of assembling plant communities. We modified the classical filter model of community assembly to include genotypic diversity as part of the biotic filter. We hypothesized that the proportion of fit genotypes (i.e. competitively superior and dominant) affects niche space availability for subordinate species to establish with consequence for species diversity. To test this hypothesis, we used an individual‐based simulation model where a foundation species of varying genotypic diversity (number of genotypes and variability among genotypes) competes for space with subordinate species on a spatially heterogeneous lattice. Our model addresses a real and practical problem in restoration ecology: choosing the level of genetic diversity of re‐introduced foundation and subordinate species. Genotypic diversity of foundation species significantly affected equilibrium community diversity, measured as species richness, either positively or negatively, depending upon environmental heterogeneity. Increases in genotypic diversity gave the foundation species a wider niche breadth. Under conditions of high environmental heterogeneity, this wider niche breadth decreased niche space for other species, lowering species richness with increased genotypic diversity until the genotypes of the foundation species saturated the landscape. With a low level of environmental heterogeneity, increasing genotypic diversity caused the foundation species niche breadth to be overdispersed, resulting in a weak positive relationship with species richness. Under these conditions, some genotypes are maladapted to the environment lowering fitness of the foundation species. These effects of genotypic diversity were secondary to the larger effects of overall foundation species fitness and environmental heterogeneity. The novel aspect of incorporating genotype diversity in combination with environmental heterogeneity in community assembly models include predictions of either positive or negative relationships between species diversity and genotypic diversity depending on environmental heterogeneity, and the conditions under which these factors are potentially relevant. Mechanistically, differential niche availability is imposed by the foundation species.     

Competition and evolution along environmental gradients: patterns, boundaries and sympatric divergence

The present study examined how competitive interactions and environmental conditions generate species boundaries and determine species distributions. A spatially explicit, quantitative genetic, two-species competition model was used to manipulate the strengths of competition, gene flow and local adaptation along environmental gradients. This allowed us to assess the long-term persistence of each species and whether the ranges they inhabited had boundaries in space or were unlimited. We found that a species boundary arises along less steep environmental gradients when the strength of stabilizing selection and diversifying selection are similar. We also found that a species boundary may arise along shallow environmental gradients if interspecific competition is more intense than intraspecific, which relaxes previous requirements for steep gradients for generating range limits. We determined an analytical form for the critical environmental gradient as a function of ecological and genetic parameters at which a species boundary is expected to arise by competition. Results suggest an alternative to resource competition as an explanation for phenotypic divergence between sympatric competitors. Competitors sharing a trait that is under stabilizing selection along an environmental gradient may segregate spatially and evolve in different regions, with phenotypic sympatric divergence reflecting the resulting clines. Along various types of environmental gradients, variation in stabilizing selection intensities could lead to contrasting patterns in the distribution of species. For stabilizing selection strengths in accord with field data estimates, this study predicts that the level of sympatric character divergence would be limited along environmental gradients.     

Interacting Symbionts and Immunity in the Amphibian Skin Mucosome Predict Disease Risk and Probiotic Effectiveness

Pathogenesis is strongly dependent on microbial context, but development of probiotic therapies has neglected the impact of ecological interactions. Dynamics among microbial communities, host immune responses, and environmental conditions may alter the effect of probiotics in human and veterinary medicine, agriculture and aquaculture, and the proposed treatment of emerging wildlife and zoonotic diseases such as those occurring on amphibians or vectored by mosquitoes. Here we use a holistic measure of amphibian mucosal defenses to test the effects of probiotic treatments and to assess disease risk under different ecological contexts. We developed a non-invasive assay for antifungal function of the skin mucosal ecosystem (mucosome function) integrating host immune factors and the microbial community as an alternative to pathogen exposure experiments. From approximately 8500 amphibians sampled across Europe, we compared field infection prevalence with mucosome function against the emerging fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Four species were tested with laboratory exposure experiments, and a highly susceptible species, Alytes obstetricans, was treated with a variety of temperature and microbial conditions to test the effects of probiotic therapies and environmental conditions on mucosome function. We found that antifungal function of the amphibian skin mucosome predicts the prevalence of infection with the fungal pathogen in natural populations, and is linked to survival in laboratory exposure experiments. When altered by probiotic therapy, the mucosome increased antifungal capacity, while previous exposure to the pathogen was suppressive. In culture, antifungal properties of probiotics depended strongly on immunological and environmental context including temperature, competition, and pathogen presence. Functional changes in microbiota with shifts in temperature provide an alternative mechanistic explanation for patterns of disease susceptibility related to climate beyond direct impact on host or pathogen. This nonlethal management tool can be used to optimize and quickly assess the relative benefits of probiotic therapies under different climatic, microbial, or host conditions.