The dynamical implications of disease interference: correlations and coexistence

Ecological interference between unrelated diseases, caused by the temporary or permanent removal of individuals susceptible to one disease following infection with another, might be an important mechanism underlying epidemics. In this paper, we explore the potential dynamic consequences of interference by analyzing a two-disease model. By studying the stability domain of the model's equilibria, we find that the stable region of the two-disease endemic state becomes increasingly smaller as the strength of interference (largely determined by the disease-induced mortality) increases. When seasonal changes are included in the transmission rates, the bifurcation structure of the model's periodic cycles reveals that when the two diseases have similar mean transmission rates, multiple attractors in which the two diseases are strongly correlated can coexist, and that when the two diseases have very different mean transmission rates, the one with higher mean transmission rate may determine the dynamics of the system, with the other infection mimicking the behavior. We conclude that ecological interference can have important effects on the dynamical pattern of interacting diseases, the extent of which is determined by the epidemiological features of the diseases, their mean transmission rates in particular.     

Population dynamic interference among childhood diseases.

Epidemiologists usually study the interaction between a host population and one parasitic infection. However, different parasite species effectively compete, in an ecological sense, for the same finite group of susceptible hosts, so there may be an indirect effect on the population dynamics of one disease due to epidemics of another. In human populations, recovery from any serious infection is normally preceded by a period of convalescence, during which infected individuals stay at home and are effectively shielded from exposure to other infectious diseases. We present a model for the dynamics of two infectious diseases, incorporating a temporary removal of susceptibles. We use this model to explore population-level consequences of a temporary insusceptibility in childhood diseases, the dynamics of which are partly driven by differences in contact rates in and out of school terms. Significant population dynamic interference is predicted and cannot be dismissed in the limited case-study data available for measles and whooping cough in England before the vaccination era.     

The Risk of Disease to Great Apes: Simulating Disease Spread in Orang-Utan (Pongo pygmaeus wurmbii) and Chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii) Association Networks

All great ape species are endangered, and infectious diseases are thought to pose a particular threat to their survival. As great ape species vary substantially in social organisation and gregariousness, there are likely to be differences in susceptibility to disease types and spread. Understanding the relation between social variables and disease is therefore crucial for implementing effective conservation measures. Here, we simulate the transmission of a range of diseases in a population of orang-utans in Sabangau Forest (Central Kalimantan) and a community of chimpanzees in Budongo Forest (Uganda), by systematically varying transmission likelihood and probability of subsequent recovery. Both species have fission-fusion social systems, but differ considerably in their level of gregariousness. We used long-term behavioural data to create networks of association patterns on which the spread of different diseases was simulated. We found that chimpanzees were generally far more susceptible to the spread of diseases than orang-utans. When simulating different diseases that varied widely in their probability of transmission and recovery, it was found that the chimpanzee community was widely and strongly affected, while in orang-utans even highly infectious diseases had limited spread. Furthermore, when comparing the observed association network with a mean-field network (equal contact probability between group members), we found no major difference in simulated disease spread, suggesting that patterns of social bonding in orang-utans are not an important determinant of susceptibility to disease. In chimpanzees, the predicted size of the epidemic was smaller on the actual association network than on the mean-field network, indicating that patterns of social bonding have important effects on susceptibility to disease. We conclude that social networks are a potentially powerful tool to model the risk of disease transmission in great apes, and that chimpanzees are particularly threatened by infectious disease outbreaks as a result of their social structure.     

Conserved patterns of incomplete reporting in pre-vaccine era childhood diseases

Incomplete observation is an important yet often neglected feature of observational ecological timeseries. In particular, observational case report timeseries of childhood diseases have played an important role in the formulation of mechanistic dynamical models of populations and metapopulations. Yet to our knowledge, no comprehensive study of childhood disease reporting probabilities (commonly referred to as reporting rates) has been conducted to date. Here, we provide a detailed analysis of measles and whooping cough reporting probabilities in pre-vaccine United States cities and states, as well as measles in cities of England and Wales. Overall, we find the variability between locations and diseases greatly exceeds that between methods or time periods. We demonstrate a strong relationship within location between diseases and within disease between geographical areas. In addition, we find that demographic covariates such as ethnic composition and school attendance explain a non-trivial proportion of reporting probability variation. Overall, our findings show that disease reporting is both variable and non-random and that completeness of reporting is influenced by disease identity, geography and socioeconomic factors. We suggest that variations in incomplete observation can be accounted for and that doing so can reveal ecologically important features that are otherwise obscured.     

An SEIQR model for childhood diseases

It has been shown that the inclusion of an isolated class in the classical SIR model for childhood diseases can be responsible for self-sustained oscillations. Hence, the recurrent outbreaks of such diseases can be caused by autonomous, deterministic factors. We extend the model to include a latent class (i.e. individuals who are infected with the disease, but are not yet able to pass the disease to others) and study the resulting dynamics. The existence of Hopf bifurcations is shown for the model, as well as a homoclinic bifurcation for a perturbation to the model. For historical data on scarlet fever in England, our model agrees with the epidemiological data much more closely than the model without the latent class. For other childhood diseases, our model suggests that isolation is unlikely to be a major factor in sustained oscillations.      

Therapeutic gene silencing delivered by a chemically modified small interfering RNA against mutant SOD1 slows amyotrophic lateral sclerosis progression

Inherited neurodegenerative diseases, such as Huntington disease and subset of Alzheimer disease, Parkinson disease, and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, are caused by the mutant genes that have gained undefined properties that harm cells in the nervous system, causing neurodegeneration and clinical phenotypes. Lowering the mutant gene expression is predicted to slow the disease progression and produce clinical benefit. Administration of small interfering RNA (siRNA) can silence specific genes. However, long term delivery of siRNA to silence the mutant genes, a requirement for treatment of these chronic central nervous system (CNS) diseases, remains a critical unsolved issue. Here we designed and tested a chemically stabilized siRNA against human Cu,Zn-superoxide dismutase (SOD1) in a mouse model for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. We show that the modified siRNA has enhanced stability and retains siRNA activity. Administration of this siRNA at the disease onset by long term infusion into the CNS resulted in widespread distribution of this siRNA, knocked down the mutant SOD1 expression, slowed the disease progression, and extended the survival. These results bring RNA interference therapy one step closer to its clinical application for treatment of chronic, devastating, and fatal CNS disorders.     

Reduced neuronal expression of ribose-5-phosphate isomerase enhances tolerance to oxidative stress, extends lifespan, and attenuates polyglutamine toxicity in Drosophila

Aging and age-related diseases can be viewed as the result of the lifelong accumulation of stress insults. The identification of mutant strains and genes that are responsive to stress and can alter longevity profiles provides new therapeutic targets for age-related diseases. Here we reported that a Drosophila strain with reduced expression of ribose-5-phosphate isomerase (rpi), EP2456, exhibits increased resistance to oxidative stress and enhanced lifespan. In addition, the strain also displays higher levels of NADPH. The knockdown of rpi in neurons by double-stranded RNA interference recapitulated the lifespan extension and oxidative stress resistance in Drosophila. This manipulation was also found to ameliorate the effects of genetic manipulations aimed at creating a model for studying Huntington's disease by overexpression of polyglutamine in the eye, suggesting that modulating rpi levels could serve as a treatment for normal aging as well as for polyglutamine neurotoxicity.     

Competition between similar invasive species: modeling invasional interference across a landscape

As the number of biological invasions increases, interactions between different invasive species will become increasingly important. Several studies have examined facilitative invader–invader interactions, potentially leading to invasional meltdown. However, if invader interactions are negative, invasional interference may lead to lower invader abundance and spread. To explore this possibility, we develop models of two competing invaders. A landscape simulation model examines the patterns created by two such species invading into the same region. We then apply the model to a case study of Carduus nutans L. and C. acanthoides L., two economically important invasive weeds that exhibit a spatially segregated distribution in central Pennsylvania, USA. The results of these spatially-explicit models are generally consistent with the results of classic Lotka–Volterra competition models, with widespread coexistence predicted if interspecific effects are weaker than intraspecific effects for both species. However, spatial segregation of the two species (with lower net densities and no further spread) may arise, particularly when interspecific competition is stronger than intraspecific competition. A moving area of overlap may result when one species is a superior competitor. In the Carduus system, our model suggests that invasional interference will lead to lower levels of each species when together, but a similar net level of thistle invasion due to the similarity of intra- and interspecific competition. Thus, invasional interference may have important implications for the distribution and management of invasive species.     

An integrated approach to inferring gene-disease associations in humans

One of the most important tasks of modern bioinformatics is the development of computational tools that can be used to understand and treat human disease. To date, a variety of methods have been explored and algorithms for candidate gene prioritization are gaining in their usefulness. Here, we propose an algorithm for detecting gene-disease associations based on the human protein-protein interaction network, known gene-disease associations, protein sequence, and protein functional information at the molecular level. Our method, PhenoPred, is supervised: first, we mapped each gene/protein onto the spaces of disease and functional terms based on distance to all annotated proteins in the protein interaction network. We also encoded sequence, function, physicochemical, and predicted structural properties, such as secondary structure and flexibility. We then trained support vector machines to detect gene-disease associations for a number of terms in Disease Ontology and provided evidence that, despite the noise/incompleteness of experimental data and unfinished ontology of diseases, identification of candidate genes can be successful even when a large number of candidate disease terms are predicted on simultaneously. Availability: www.phenopred.org.     

An experimental investigation of a new ideal free distribution model

Summary We investigate a new continuous input ideal free distribution model which removes the assumption that resources are consumed as soon as they enter a patch. The model makes predictions about the standing crop of resources and allows consideration of the effects of simultaneous exploitation and interference competition. Using a group of cichlid fish competing for food items, we show that consistent with the model, standing crops can vary in continuous input situations. As predicted, higher standing crops are associated with increased intake rates. Furthermore, with greater numbers of competitors, standing crops are higher, suggesting that there is interference as well as exploitation competition in our system. An experiment to investigate the effects of fish density on the level of movement revealed that the reported interference competition could not be attributed to increased fish movement at higher density.     

Neuronal protection by sirtuins in Alzheimer's disease

Silent information regulator 2, a member of NAD+-dependent histone deacetylase in yeast, and its homologs in mice and humans, participate in numerous important cell functions, including cell protection and cell cycle regulation. The sirtuin family members are highly conserved evolutionarily, and are predicted to have a role in cell survival. The science of sirtuins is an emerging field and is expected to contribute significantly to the role of sirtuins in healthy aging in humans. The role of sirtuins in neuronal protection has been studied in lower organisms, such as yeast, worms, flies and rodents. Both yeast Sir2 and mammalian sirtuin proteins are up-regulated under calorie-restricted and resveratrol treatments. Increased sirtuin expression protects cells from various insults. Caloric restriction and antioxidant treatments have shown useful effects in mouse models of aging and Alzheimer's disease (AD) and in limited human AD clinical trials. The role sirtuins may play in modifying and protecting neurons in patients with neurodegenerative diseases is still unknown. However, a recent report of Huntington's disease revealed that Sirtuin protects neurons in a Huntington's disease mouse model, suggesting that sirtuins may protect neurons in patients with neurodegenerative diseases, such as AD. In this review, we discuss the possible mechanisms of sirtuins involved in neuronal protection and the potential therapeutic value of sirtuins in healthy aging and AD.     

Therapeutic Potential of CKD-504, a Novel Selective Histone Deacetylase 6 Inhibitor,in a Zebrafish Model of Neuromuscular Junction Disorders

The neuromuscular junction (NMJ), which is a synapse for signal transmission from motor neurons to muscle cells, has emerged as an important region because of its association with several peripheral neuropathies. In particular, mutations in GARS that affect the formation of NMJ result in Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease and distal hereditary motor neuropathy. These disorders are mainly considered to be caused by neuronal axon abnormalities; however, no treatment is currently available. Therefore, in order to determine whether the NMJ could be targeted to treat neurodegenerative disorders, we investigated the NMJ recovery effect of HDAC6 inhibitors, which have been used in the treatment of several peripheral neuropathies. In the present study, we demonstrated that HDAC6 inhibition was sufficient to enhance movement by restoring NMJ impairments observed in a zebrafish disease model. We found that CKD-504, a novel HDAC6 inhibitor, was effective in repairing NMJ defects, suggesting that treatment of neurodegenerative diseases via NMJ targeting is possible.     

Modelling cytomegalovirus replication patterns in the human host: factors important for pathogenesis

Human cytomegalovirus can cause a diverse range of diseases in different immunocompromised hosts. The pathogenic mechanisms underlying these diseases have not been fully elucidated, though the maximal viral load during infection is strongly correlated with the disease. However, concentrating on single viral load measures during infection ignores valuable information contained during the entire replication history up to the onset of disease. We use a statistical model that allows all viral load data sampled during infection to be analysed, and have applied it to four immunocompromised groups exhibiting five distinct cytomegalovirus-related diseases. The results show that for all diseases, peaks in viral load contribute less to disease progression than phases of low virus load with equal amount of viral turnover. The model accurately predicted the time of disease onset for fever, gastrointestinal disease and pneumonitis but not for hepatitis and retinitis, implying that other factors may be involved in the pathology of these diseases.     

The influence of early conditions on health status among elderly Puerto Ricans

The demographic origins of aging in Puerto Rican and other Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries may have important implications for the profile of health status and mortality of elderly people. For this article we tested a general conjecture about the relation between early childhood conditions and adult health status among Puerto Rican elderly using a rich data set recently collected through an island-wide survey (N = 4,293). We examined the association between markers of early nutritional status, self-reports of health and on socioeconomic conditions during early childhood, and the prevalence of 3 conditions during adult ages: obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases. Although we found that obesity and diabetes are associated with markers of early malnutrition, that heart disease is associated with early deprivations and selected early childhood conditions, the evidence we were able to tease out from the data provides only fragile support for the conjecture.     

ALTERNATIVE PATHS TO SUCCESS IN A PARASITE COMMUNITY: WITHIN‐HOST COMPETITION CAN FAVOR HIGHER VIRULENCE OR DIRECT INTERFERENCE

Selection imposed by coinfection may vary with the mechanism of within‐host competition between parasites. Exploitative competition is predicted to favor more virulent parasites, whereas interference competition may result in lower virulence. Here, we examine whether exploitative or interference competition determines the outcome of competition between two nematode species (Steinernema spp.), which in combination with their bacterial symbionts (Xenorhabdus spp.), infect and kill insect hosts. Multiple isolates of each nematode species, carrying their naturally associated bacteria, were characterized by (1) the rate at which they killed insect hosts, and by (2) the ability of their bacteria to interfere with each other's growth via bacteriocidal toxins called “bacteriocins.” We found that both exploitative and interference abilities were important in predicting which species had a selective advantage in pairwise competition experiments. When nematodes carried bacteria that did not interact via bacteriocins, the faster killing isolate had a competitive advantage. Alternatively, nematodes could gain a competitive advantage when they carried bacteria able to inhibit the bacteria of their competitor. Thus, the combination of nematode/bacterial traits that led to competitive success depended on which isolates were paired, suggesting that variation in competitive interactions may be important for maintaining species diversity in this community.     

Proteomics in immunity and herpes simplex encephalitis

The genetic theory of infectious diseases has proposed that susceptibility to life-threatening infectious diseases in childhood, occurring in the course of primary infection, results mostly from individually rare but collectively diverse single-gene variants. Recent evidence of an ever-expanding spectrum of genes involved in susceptibility to infectious disease indicates that the paradigm has important implications for diagnosis and treatment. One such pathology is childhood herpes simplex encephalitis, which shows a pattern of rare but diverse disease-disposing genetic variants. The present report shows how proteomics can help to understand susceptibility to childhood herpes simplex encephalitis and other viral infections, suggests that proteomics may have a particularly important role to play, emphasizes that variation over the population is a critical issue for proteomics and notes some new challenges for proteomics and related bioinformatics tools in the context of rare but diverse genetic defects.     

The role of autophagy in age-related neurodegeneration

Most age-related neurodegenerative diseases are characterized by accumulation of aberrant protein aggregates in affected brain regions. In many cases, these proteinaceous deposits are composed of ubiquitin conjugates, suggesting a failure in the clearance of proteins targeted for degradation. The 2 principal routes of intracellular protein catabolism are the ubiquitin proteasome system and the autophagy-lysosome system (autophagy). Both of these degradation pathways have been implicated as playing important roles in the pathogenesis of neurodegenerative disease. Here we describe autophagy and review the evidence suggesting that impairment of autophagy contributes to the initiation or progression of age-related neurodegeneration. We also review recent evidence indicating that autophagy may be exploited to remove toxic protein species, suggesting novel strategies for therapeutic intervention for a class of diseases for which no effective treatments presently exist.