Gloom and doom? The future of marine capture fisheries

Predicting global fisheries is a high-order challenge but predictions have been made and updates are needed. Past forecasts, present trends and perspectives of key parameters of the fisheries--including potential harvest, state of stocks, supply and demand, trade, fishing technology and governance--are reviewed in detail, as the basis for new forecasts and forecasting performance assessment. The future of marine capture fisheries will be conditioned by the political, social and economic evolution of the world within which they operate. Consequently, recent global scenarios for the future world are reviewed, with the emphasis on fisheries. The main driving forces (e.g. global economic development, demography, environment, public awareness, information technology, energy, ethics) including aquaculture are described. Outlooks are provided for each aspect of the fishery sector. The conclusion puts these elements in perspective and offers the authors' personal interpretation of the possible future pathway of fisheries, the uncertainty about it and the still unanswered questions of direct relevance in shaping that future.     

Reconstruction of coral reef fisheries catches in American Samoa, 1950–2002

Fisheries catches from Pacific Island coral reefs are rarely recorded in official statistics. Reconstruction of catch estimates with limited hard data requires interpolation and assumptions, justifiable only by the unsatisfactory alternative of continued substitution of zero catches, a common policy interpretation for ‘no data’. Uncertainties associated with reconstructions are high, requiring conservative estimation. American Samoan domestic fisheries consist of an artisanal, small-boat sector, whose commercial catches are reported, and a shore-based subsistence sector, with no regular reporting. Our catch reconstruction (with large pelagic species removed) suggested a 79% decrease in catches between 1950 (752 t) and 2002 (155 t). Accounting for rapid human population growth on the main island, the per capita catch rate may have declined from 36.3 kg·person⁻¹ year⁻¹ in 1950 to 1.3 kg·person⁻¹ year⁻¹ by 2002, while the catch rate for the inhabited outer islands has been independently reported as 58.6 kg·person⁻¹ year⁻¹. Catch per area of coral reef (to 50-m depth) may have declined from 5.5 to 0.7 t km⁻² year⁻¹ for the main island, and from 9.1 to 4.9 t km⁻² year⁻¹ for the outer islands, for 1950 and 2002, respectively. Summed for 1950–2002, our reconstruction suggested a 17-fold difference between reconstructed estimates and reported statistics.     

The management of fisheries in Lake Vörtsjärv

L. Vörtsjärv is a eutrophic lake in Central Estonia. The area of the lake is 270 km², the average depth only 2.8 m. The biological productivity of the lake is rather low. Twelve to fifteen years ago the main fish were ruff and perch (80–90% of catch), while the numbers of valuable fish were small. At the same time the total catch of fish was relatively high — about 300 tons a year. Attempts were made to reduce the numbers of undesirable fish by intense trawl-catch but no marked results were achieved. Subsequently trawl-catch was ended, elvers were regularly introduced into the lake and protection of valuable fish was improved. At the present time the total catch of fish has decreased (184 tons in 1979), but pike-perch and eels are now the main game fish (50–60% of catch) and the value of the catch of fish has risen 2–3 times.     

Forecasting lionfish sources and sinks in the Atlantic: are Gulf of Mexico reef fisheries at risk?

Invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles complex) now permeate the entire tropical western Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico, but lionfish abundance has been measured only in select locations in the field. Despite its rapid range expansion, a comprehensive meta-population analysis of lionfish ‘sources’ and ‘sinks’ and consequentially the invader’s potential abundance and impacts on economically important, sympatric reef fishes have not been assessed. These data are urgently needed to spatially direct control efforts and to plan for and perhaps mitigate lionfish-caused damage. Here, we use a biophysical computer model to: (1) forecast larval lionfish sources and sinks that are also delineated as low to high lionfish ‘density zones’ throughout their invaded range, and (2) assess the potential vulnerability of five grouper and snapper species—Epinephelus morio, Mycteroperca microlepis, Epinephelus flavolimbatus, Lutjanus campechanus, and Rhomboplites aurorubens—to lionfish within these density zones in the Gulf of Mexico. Our results suggest that the west Florida shelf and nearshore waters of Texas, USA, and Guyana, South America, function both as lionfish sources and sinks and should be a high priority for targeted lionfish control. Furthermore, of the five groupers and snappers studied, the high fishery value E. morio (red grouper) is the Gulf of Mexico species most at risk from lionfish. Lacking a comprehensive lionfish control policy, these risk exposure data inform managers where removals should be focused and demonstrate the risk to five sympatric native groupers and snappers in the Gulf of Mexico that may be susceptible to dense lionfish aggregations, should control efforts fail.     

Are current management recommendations for saproxylic invertebrates effective? A systematic review

Conservation management recommendations for saproxylic invertebrates advocate the continuous provision of the dead and decaying wood microhabitats that they require for survival. Accepted site-based management practices include leaving fallen dead and decaying wood in situ, providing supplementary coarse woody material (CWM), inducing decay in mature trees and strategic planting in order to maintain a balanced age structure of trees in both space and time. Here we examine the empirical evidence regarding the effectiveness of such interventions using rigorous systematic review methodology. Systematic searching yielded 27 studies containing pertinent information. The evidence presently available is insufficient to critically appraise the utility of any specific intervention for conserving saproxylic species, or assemblages, in the long-term. However, there are a range of studies, conducted over relatively short periods of time, which do describe changes in saproxylic fauna in response to management practices. In the absence of robust, high quality evidence, recommendations relating to the use of specific site-based conservation interventions should only be regarded as speculative. Nonetheless, general proposals for the maintenance of suitable microhabitats, such as the protection of veteran trees within the landscape, are based on sound ecological principles and should be encouraged even though experimentally controlled and replicated evidence is lacking. Further primary research and long-term monitoring are required to fill the gaps in our ecological knowledge that potentially weaken the case for the effectiveness of current saproxylic invertebrate conservation action and would enable practitioners to make better informed decisions with regard to dead wood protection and provision.     

Are there effective resistance management strategies for vectors of human disease?*

The rotation of insecticides used by the Onchocerciasis Control Programme in West Africa is reviewed and the motives for this rotation are shown to be not only management of temephos resistance in the Simulium vectors but also constraints on what compounds are usable at particular seasons. A computer model indicates that without these seasonal constraints there is unlikely to be an advantage in a pre-planned rotation of insecticides, as compared with the prompt switching of compounds as dictated by detection of build up of resistance and switching back to the original compound if the regression of resistance is found to give the opportunity to do so. The latter sequence of events can hardly be called a ‘strategy’ for resistance management, but is what any well-managed pest control programme would be expected to do. The use of an insecticide mixture is different in principle from the use of rotation and depends on the idea that if the mixture is used from the outset, when resistance to both components of the mixture is likely to be rare, the double resistance combination would be so rare as to be dwarfed in numbers by those insects which avoid exposure altogether. The prospects for successful use of a mixture depend on each component killing a very high percentage of the exposed insects which are genetically susceptible to it. Whether this condition is met could be tested, for example, in the case of exposure of mosquitoes to insecticide-treated bednets.     

Point-of-View: Arguments for conventional fisheries management and against no-take marine protected areas: only half of the story?

Recent arguments for conventional fisheries management approaches (CFMAs) and against no-take marine protected areas (NTMPAs) are reviewed, i.e. CFMAs are more effective, density-dependent factors will lead to reduced fish stock production in and around NTMPAs, rights-based approaches in combination with CFMAs will be more effective, and natural refuges from fishing already exist. It is concluded that these are largely valid but only from a fisheries management perspective. The arguments of proponents of NTMPAs and those of proponents of CFMAs are considered as contrasting storylines, the divergences between which are based on two key factors: different objectives and different science. In relation to different objectives, it is concluded that the arguments against NTMPAs based on their lack of fisheries management benefits must be considered as only applying to the secondary resource conservation objectives of such designations and not to the primary marine biodiversity conservation objectives. On this basis it is argued that it is counter-productive for NTMPAs to be ‘sold’ on a win–win basis, including their potential to deliver fisheries management benefits, as this detracts from their marine biodiversity conservation objectives and leaves such calls open to arguments that CFMAs are better able to deliver fisheries management objectives. In relation to different science, it is concluded that criticisms of NTMPAs and support for CFMAs implicitly resist the shift from Mode 1 (reductive, intra-disciplinary) to Mode 2 (holistic, trans-disciplinary) science that is inherent in calls for NTMPAs as part of an ecosystem approach. Mode 2 science attempts to accommodate both uncertainty and wider societal values and preferences, and it is argued that arguments for NTMPAs should be more explicitly focussed on this potential. It is difficult, if not impossible and inappropriate, to extend the reductive approach inherent in CFMA analyses to encompass the broader ethical and scientific concerns for the health of marine ecosystems and their component populations and habitats that arguments for NTMPAs reflect. NTMPA proponents might focus on stressing that arguments against such designations and in favour of CFMAs do not encompass such valid concerns, therefore they tell only half of the story.

Application of traditional ecological knowledge in the management and sustainability of fisheries in East Africa: a long-neglected strategy?

Management and sustainability of fisheries has been guided by theories and models derived from modern ecological science. Traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) has been ignored in all spheres of decision-making for management and sustainability of fisheries in East Africa. TEK guided African communities in the way they associated and interacted with the natural environment around them. Spiritual rituals, religious practices, social taboos and sacred animal totems guided the peoples on how and when to utilize the available natural resources. In the advent of modern scientific knowledge, the African traditional knowledge quickly faded away and is generally seen as irrelevant. Today the potential of TEK in the management and sustainability of fisheries in East Africa has not been realized and its status and future is unknown. TEK should be complementary to modern scientific knowledge in the management and sustainability of fisheries. This paper therefore focuses on the potential application of TEK in the management and sustainability of fisheries in East Africa and the issues that impede its application.     

An ecological perspective on marine reserves in prey–predator dynamics

This paper describes a prey–predator type fishery model with prey dispersal in a two-patch environment, one of which is a free fishing zone and other is a protected zone. The existence of possible steady states, along with their local stability, is discussed. A geometric approach is used to derive the sufficient conditions for global stability of the system at the positive equilibrium. Relative size of the reserve is considered as control in order to study optimal sustainable yield policy. Subsequently, the optimal system is derived and then solved numerically using an iterative method with Runge–Kutta fourth-order scheme. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the importance of marine reserve in fisheries management. It is noted that the marine protected area enables us to protect and restore multi-species ecosystem. The results illustrate that dynamics of the system is extremely interesting if simultaneous effects of a regulatory mechanism like marine reserve is coupled with harvesting effort. It is observed that the migration of the resource, from protected area to unprotected area and vice versa, is playing an important role towards the standing stock assessment in both the areas which ultimately control the harvesting efficiency and enhance the fishing stock up to some extent.     

Do reef fish assemblages benefit from a marine protected area in the north Pacific coast of Costa Rica?

Environmental Biology of Fishes - Reef fish assemblages under fishing pressure generally exhibit a lower fish biomass, abundance, and size structure, which can be counteracted with the creation of...     

The effects of dispersal patterns on marine reserves: does the tail wag the dog?

The concept of marine reserves as a method of improving management of fisheries is gaining momentum. While the list of benefits from reserves is frequently promoted, precise formulations of theory to support reserve design are not fully developed. To determine the size of reserves and the distances between reserves an understanding of the requirements for persistence of local populations is required. Unfortunately, conditions for persistence are poorly characterized, as are the larval dispersal patterns on which persistence depends. With the current paucity of information regarding meroplanktonic larval transport processes, understanding the robustness of theoretical results to larval dispersal is of key importance. From this formulation a broad range of dispersal patterns are analyzed. Larval dispersal is represented by a probability distribution that defines the fraction of successful settlers from an arbitrary location, the origin of the distribution, to any other location along the coast. While the effects of specific dispersal patterns have been investigated for invasion processes, critical habitat size and persistence issues have generally been addressed with only one or two dispersal types. To that end, we formulate models based on integrodifference equations that are spatially continuous and temporally discrete. We consider a range of dispersal distributions from leptokurtic to platykurtic. The effect of different dispersal patterns is considered for a single isolated reserve of varying size receiving no external larvae, as well as multiple reserves with varying degrees of connectivity. While different patterns result in quantitative differences in persistence, qualitatively similar effects across all patterns are seen in both single- and multiple reserve models. Persistence in an isolated reserve requires a size that is approximately twice the mean dispersal distance and regardless of the dispersal pattern the population in a patch is not persistent if the reserve size is reduced to just the mean dispersal distance. With an idealized coastline structure consisting of an infinite line of equally spaced reserves separated by regions of coastline in which reproduction is nil, the relative settlement as a function of the fraction of coastline and size of reserve is qualitatively very similar over a broad range of dispersal patterns. The upper limit for the minimum fraction of coastline held in reserve is about 40%. As the fraction of coastline is reduced, the minimum size of reserve becomes no more than 1.25 times the mean dispersal distance.     

Natural fishing experiments in marine reserves 1983 – 1993: roles of life history and fishing intensity in family responses

 This study examined the effect of fishing on the abundance and species richness of families of coral reef fish at two islands (Sumilon and Apo) in the Philippines from 1983 to 1993. Natural fishing experiments occurred in marine reserves at each island, where long term estimates of fishing intensity were available. Responses to fishing were interpreted in terms of life histories of fish. The intensity of fishing and fish life histories were generally good predictors of the differential rates of decline and recovery of abundance in response to fishing. Large predators had vulnerable life histories (low rates of natural mortality, growth and recruitment) and were subjected to high intensity fishing. They declined significantly in density when fished and increased significantly but slowly when protected from fishing. Caesionidae, a family with a life history resilient to fishing (high rates of natural mortality, growth and recruitment) but fished intensively also declined rapidly in abundance when fished. Thus, knowledge of life history alone was insufficient to predict response to fishing. Acanthuridae were fished relatively hard and had a life history of intermediate vulnerability but displayed weak responses to fishing. Thus level of fishing intensity alone was also not sufficient to predict response to fishing. For Chaetodontidae, effects of fishing conformed to expectations based on life history and fishing intensity at one island but not the other. Three families with intermediate vulnerability and subjected to intermediate to light fishing (F. Scaridae, Labridae and Mullidae) displayed predictably weak responses to fishing, or counter-intuitive responses (e.g., increasing in abundance following fishing). These counter-intuitive responses were unlikely to be secondary effects of increase in prey in response to declines of predators. Two lightly-fished families with resilient life histories (F. Pomacentridae, Sub F. Anthiinae) predictably displayed weak numerical responses to fishing except during a period of use of explosives and drive nets. Accepted: 30 June 1998     

Are exotic natural enemies an effective way of controlling invasive plants?

Classical biological control (the introduction of exotic natural enemies) is often advocated as a tool for managing invasive species. Here, we review the effectiveness of biocontrol and explore the factors that determine whether it is an appropriate response to the invasive species problem. Although there have been some successes, biocontrol is generally poorly evaluated and, in many cases, its impact is unknown. In particular, there is limited understanding of the nature of the invasive species problem and no clear targets against which 'success' can be gauged. In addition, exotic natural enemies could act as invasive species in their own right. To improve the role of biocontrol in invasive species management, we need a better ecological understanding of the impacts of both the biocontrol agents and the target invasive species.     

Natural fishing experiments in marine reserves 1983–1993: community and trophic responses

 This study examined the effect of fishing on the density, biomass, species richness and overall structure of the reef fish community at two islands (Sumilon and Apo) in the Philippines from 1983 to 1993. A series of natural fishing experiments over this period involving marine reserves were monitored at each island, where estimates of fishing intensity and selectivity were available. Fishing intensity (15% and 25% of biomass removed per year at Sumilon and Apo, respectively) was high enough to affect total community biomass, but not density, significantly. Species richness was not affected significantly by fishing, except at Sumilon reserve. The fishery was relatively non-selective with most families/trophic groups caught roughly in proportion to their contribution to community biomass. Thus fishing did not alter the relative abundance of the major families/trophic groups significantly, except during a period of use of explosives and drive nets in the Sumilon reserve. At the level of family/trophic group the community displayed strong resilience of structure. There was little evidence of secondary effects e.g. declines in abundance of large predators resulting in measurable increases in abundance of their prey. This resilience of the community to the effects of fishing most likely results from three important community attributes (open nature of the component populations, likely maintenance of upstream recruitment supply and apparent lack of any obvious “keystone” species or families) and one important characteristic of the fishery (relatively non-selective with respect to the components of the community). Accepted: 30 June 1998