Physiological time model for predicting adult emergence of western corn rootworm (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) in the Texas High Plains

Field observations at three locations in the Texas High Plains were used to develop and validate a degree-day phenology model to predict the onset and proportional emergence of adult Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) adults. Climatic data from the Texas High Plains Potential Evapotranspiration network were used with records of cumulative proportional adult emergence to determine the functional lower developmental temperature, optimum starting date, and the sum of degree-days for phenological events from onset to 99% adult emergence. The model base temperature, 10 degrees C (50 degrees F), corresponds closely to known physiological lower limits for development. The model uses a modified Gompertz equation, y = 96.5 x exp (-(exp(6.0 - 0.00404 x (x - 4.0), where x is cumulative heat (degree-days), to predict y, cumulative proportional emergence expressed as a percentage. The model starts degree-day accumulation on the date of corn, Zea mays L., emergence, and predictions correspond closely to corn phenological stages from tasseling to black layer development. Validation shows the model predicts cumulative proportional adult emergence within a satisfactory interval of 4.5 d. The model is flexible enough to accommodate early planting, late emergence, and the effects of drought and heat stress. The model provides corn producers ample lead time to anticipate and implement adult control practices.     

Evaluation of several degree-day estimation methods in California climates

 Procedures for estimating degree-day accumulations are frequently employed instead of the more accurate method of calculating degree-days from hourly temperature data because on-site temperature data are commonly restricted to daily minimum and maximum temperature records. Data from seven methods of estimating degree-days at each of nine locations during 2 years in California were compared by month to degree-day values calculated by hourly summation. Methods included three sine-wave approaches, three triangulation approaches and the averaging (i.e., rectangle) method. Results of the double-sine and corrected-sine (i.e., corrected for day length) methods were nearly identical to those of the single-sine method. The double triangulation and corrected triangulation methods produced very similar results to the single triangulation method. The averaging method and sine-wave methods deviated to a greater extent from degree-day accumulations calculated from hourly temperatures from November through February than did the triangulation methods. Degree-day estimations from the late spring and summer months were more similar to one another for all estimation methods than during the cooler months of the year. Since no advantages were noted in the more complicated double and corrected methods, the single triangulation method or the sine-wave method is preferred as they are less complicated procedures. Of the various temperature threshold cut-off methods evaluated, error levels were unaffected when estimating degree-days using the sine-wave method. The employment of a horizontal cut-off with the triangulation method did not significantly increase the amount of error in the estimation of degree-days. However, an increase in error was observed when employing the intermediate cut-off and vertical threshold cut-off techniques with the triangulation method for computing degree-days. Received: 26 May 1998 / Accepted: 28 October 1998     

Assessing the distribution of the Argentine ant using physiological data

To address the lack of physiological approaches in current models assessing the potential distribution of the Argentine ant, we used data on brood development from distinct sources to evaluate a series of degree-day models for Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula), and data on the brood survival and oviposition rates to develop a worker production model. The degree-day model generated using data from Newell and Barber (1913) and Benois (1973) indicated that the number of degree-days required for the complete development from egg to adult worker was 445.4 degree-days above a threshold of 15.9 °C, while the model calibrated using data from Abril et al. (2008, in press) suggested 599.5 degree-days above 18.4 °C. Comparisons between the degree-day model predictions and the currently known distribution of the Argentine ant suggested that the one generated using data from Newell and Barber (1913) and Benois (1973) overestimated the presence of the species, while the one calibrated using data from Abril et al. (2008; in press) underestimated it. On the other hand, the predicted daily net production of Argentine ant workers generated by the worker production model predicted more accurately the distribution of the Argentine ant than the degree-day models. Our results show the utility of incorporating physiological data in models to assess the distribution limits of the Argentine ant, which up to date have taken little account of the physiological needs of the species in terms of its establishment and dispersion in its introduced ranges.     

Statistical estimation of degree days of mosquito development under fluctuating temperatures in the field.

Degree-days are important parameters for developing predictive models of mosquito populations. Conventional methods of estimation of degree-days are typically applied to observations under constant temperatures in the laboratory. These methods are difficult to apply in the field where temperatures fluctuate. For estimating degree-days of larval developments of mosquitoes in the field, we applied Dennis' stochastic phenological model to a semi-field observation of Culex restuans. A parametric bootstrap approach was introduced to estimate standard errors of the parameters. We found that the estimated degree-days varied with various assumptions about the temperature base. Given the latter, the model can satisfactorily estimate the degree-days of larval and pupal developments of Cx. resturans. This approach is especially useful to measure spatio-temporal variability in larval development among various types of aquatic habitats.     

A physiologically based approach for degree-day calculation in pest phenology models: the case of the European Corn Borer (<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Ostrinia nubilalis</Emphasis> Hbn.) in Northern Italy

Phenological models based on degree-day accumulation have been developed to support the integrated pest management of many insects. Most of these models are based on linear relationships between temperature and development, and on daily time step simulations using daily minimum and maximum temperatures. This approach represents an approximation that does not take into account the insect physiological response to temperature, and daily temperature fluctuations. The objective of this work has been to develop a phenological model for the European corn borer (ECB) based on the insect physiological response to temperature and running at an hourly time step. Two modeling solutions based on the same generic compartmental system have been compared: the first based on a physiologically based relationship between temperature and development, and using hourly derived temperatures as input (HNL modeling solution); and the second based on a linear relationship between temperature and degree-day accumulation and using daily temperature (DL modeling solution). The two approaches have been compared using ECB moth capture data from the Piemonte region in Northern Italy. The HNL modeling solution showed the best results for all the accuracy indicators. The DL modeling solution showed a tendency to anticipate ECB phenological development too early. This tendency is attributable to the linear relationship between temperature and development, which does not take into account (1) the decline of this relationship at high temperatures, and (2) the daily fluctuation of temperature. As a consequence, degree-days accumulation is accelerated in the DL modeling solution and the phenological development anticipated.     

Temperature data for phenological models

In an arid environment, the effect of evaporation on energy balance can affect air temperature recordings and greatly impact on degree-day calculations. This is an important consideration when choosing a site or climate data for phenological models. To our knowledge, there is no literature showing the effect of the underlying surface and its fetch around a weather station on degree-day accumulations. In this paper, we present data to show that this is a serious consideration, and it can lead to dubious models. Microscale measurements of temperature and energy balance are presented to explain why the differences occur. For example, the effect of fetch of irrigated grass and wetting of bare soil around a weather station on diurnal temperature are reported. A 43-day experiment showed that temperature measured on the upwind edge of an irrigated grass area averaged 4% higher than temperatures recorded 200 m inside the grass field. When the single-triangle method was used with a 10°C threshold and starting on May 19, the station on the upwind edge recorded 900 degree-days on June 28, whereas the interior station recorded 900 degree-days on July 1. Clearly, a difference in fetch can lead to big errors for large degree-day accumulations. Immediately after wetting, the temperature over a wet soil surface was similar to that measured over grass. However, the temperature over the soil increased more than that over the grass as the soil surface dried. Therefore, the observed difference between temperatures measured over bare soil and those over grass increases with longer periods between wettings. In most arid locations, measuring temperature over irrigated grass gives a lower mean annual temperature, resulting in lower annual cumulative degree-day values. This was verified by comparing measurements over grass with those over bare soil at several weather stations in a range of climates. To eliminate the effect of rainfall frequency, using temperature data collected only over irrigated grass, is recommended for long-term assessment of climate change effects on degree-day accumulation. In high evaporative conditions, a fetch of at least 100 m of grass is recommended. Our results clearly indicate that weather stations sited over bare soil have consistently higher degree-day accumulations. Therefore, especially in arid environments, phenology models based on temperature collected over bare soil are not transferable to those based on temperature recorded over irrigated grass. At a minimum, all degree-day-based phenology models reported in the literature should clearly describe the weather station site. Received: 25 October 2000 / Revised: 10 July 2001 / Accepted: 10 July 2001     

Climate change impact on development rates of the codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) in the Wielkopolska region, Poland

The main goal of this paper is to estimate how the observed and predicted climate changes may affect the development rates and emergence of the codling moth in the southern part of the Wielkopolska region in Poland. In order to simulate the future climate conditions one of the most frequently used A1B SRES scenarios and two different IPCC climate models (HadCM3 and GISS modelE) are considered. A daily weather generator (WGENK) was used to generate temperature values for present and future climate conditions (time horizons 2020–2040 and 2040–2060). Based on the generated data set, the degree-days values were then calculated and the emergence dates of the codling moth at key stages were estimated basing on the defined thresholds. Our analyses showed that the average air surface temperature in the Wielkopolska region may increase from 2.8°C (according to GISS modelE) even up to 3.3°C (HadCM3) in the period of 2040–2060. With the warming climate conditions the cumulated degree-days values may increase at a rate of about 142 DD per decade when the low temperature threshold (T _low ) of 0°C is considered and 91 DD per decade when T _low ?=?10°C. The key developmental stages of the codling moth may occur much earlier in the future climate conditions than currently, at a rate of about 3.8–6.8 days per decade, depending on the considered GCM model and the pest developmental stage. The fastest changes may be observed in the emergence dates of 95% of larvae of the second codling moth generation. This could increase the emergence probability of the pest third generation that has not currently occurred in Poland.     

Estimation of developmental parameters for adult emergence of Gonatocerus morgani,a novel egg parasitoid of the glassy-winged sharpshooter,and development of a degree-day model

The effects of temperature on the development (egg–adult emergence) of Gonatocerus morgani Triapitsyn, a newly-described parasitoid of Homalodisca vitripennis (Germar), were determined at 14.8, 18.7, 23.5, 26.9, 28.7, 30.4, 32.8, and 33.8 °C in the laboratory. Survival rate (percent adult emergence from parasitized host eggs) varied significantly among the experimental temperatures, with the highest (59%) and lowest (0%) occurring at 30.4 and 33.8 °C, respectively. The survival rates (%) were fitted with a polynomial model to describe a temperature-dependent pattern. Developmental rates (1/d) across seven temperatures were fitted with the nonlinear Briere model, which estimated the lower threshold to be 8.06 °C, the optimal temperature to be 29.22 °C, and the upper threshold to be 33.49 °C. A linear model fitted to developmental rates at 14.8–28.7 °C indicated that 189.75 degree-days above the lower threshold of 9.71 °C were required to complete development. A simulation model of G. morgani adult emergence was constructed to predict daily counts over the entire range of constant temperatures by incorporating the survival rate model, the Briere model, and the Weibull model. In outdoor validation, a degree-day model for predicting adult emergence showed ?2 d differences between prediction and observation. Based on the observed temperature requirement, the insect could complete thirteen to sixteen generations per year in southern California, depending on weather and location.     

Physiological time model of Scirpophaga incertulas (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) in rice in Guandong Province, People's Republic of China

Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) is autochthonous and monophagous on rice, Oryza spp., which favors the development of a physiological time model using degree-days (degrees C) to establish a well defined window during which adults will be present in fields. Model development of S. incertulas adult flight phenology used climatic data and historical field observations of S. incertulas from 1962 through 1988. Analysis of variance was used to evaluate 5,203 prospective models with starting dates ranging from 1 January (day 1) to 30 April (day 121) and base temperatures ranging from -3 through 18.5 degrees C. From six candidate models, which shared the lowest standard deviation of prediction error, a model with a base temperature of 10 degrees C starting on 19 January was selected for validation. Validation with linear regression evaluated the differences between predicted and observed events and showed the model consistently predicted phenological events of 10 to 90% cumulative flight activity within a 3.5-d prediction interval regarded as acceptable for pest management decision making. The degree-day phenology model developed here is expected to find field application in Guandong Province. Expansion to other areas of rice production will require field validation. We expect the degree-day characterization of the activity period will remain essentially intact, but the start day may vary based on climate and geographic location. The development and validation of the phenology model of the S. incertulas by using procedures originally developed for pecan nut casebearer, Acrobasis nuxvorella Neunzig, shows the fungibility of this approach to developing prediction models for other insects.     

Effect of temperature on development and activity periods of the leek moth Acrolepiopsis assectella Zell. (Lep., Acrolepiidae)

Effects of temperature on egg, larval and pupal developmental times of the leek moth were examined at five constant temperatures ranging from 12 to 20°C. Using this data, a linear degree-day model for the leek moth was developed. The model gave the threshold temperature of T _h =6°C, and 630 degree-days were required above the threshold temperature, to complete the development of the leek moth. To validate the model in the field, flight activity during the summers of 1998 and 1999 was studied using pheromone traps. If the summer is warm the leek moth can have two generations per year in Sweden, but the probability of completing two generations within leek plantations is very limited. The likelihood of the leek moth becoming a pest is highly dependent on access to alternative host plants for the first generation of leek moths.     

Phenology of Lacanobia subjuncta (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Washington and Oregon apple orchards

The phenology of Lacanobia subjuncta (Grote & Robinson) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) was investigated in 30 apple orchards in central Washington state and northeastern Oregon from 1998 to 2001 (57 total orchard-yr). Adult captures in pheromone-baited traps were fit to a Weibull distribution to model emergence of the first and second generations. Initial capture of first generation adults was observed at 216.2 +/- 2.6 degree-days (DD) (mean +/- SEM) from 1 March by using a base temperature of 6.7 degrees C. The model predicted that flight was 5 and 95% complete by 240 and 700 degree-days (DD), respectively. Monitoring of oviposition and hatch was used to establish a protandry plus preoviposition degree-day requirement of 160.0 +/- 7.7 DD, as well as to provide data to describe the entire hatch period. Egg hatch was 5 and 95% complete by 395 and 630 DD, respectively. The start of the second flight was observed at 1217.1 +/- 8.3 DD by using an upper threshold for development of 32 degrees C and a horizontal cutoff. The model indicated that the second flight was 5 and 95% complete by 1220 and 1690 DD, respectively. Second generation hatch was 5 and 95% complete by 1440 and 1740 DD, respectively. A discussion of the potential uses of these detailed phenology data in optimizing management strategies is presented.     

Temperature-Dependent Development of Pasteuria penetrans in Meloidogyne arenaria

Pasteuria penetrans is a promising biological control agent of plant-parasitic nematodes. This study was conducted to determine effects of temperature on the bacterium''s development in Meloidogyne arenaria. Developmental stages of P. penetrans were viewed with a compound microscope and verified with scanning electron microscopy within each nematode at 100 accumulated degree-day intervals by tracking accumulated degree-days at three temperatures (21, 28, and 35 °C). Five predominant developmental stages of P. penetrans were identified with light microscopy: endospore germination, vegetative growth, differentiation, sporulation, and maturation. Mature endospores were detected at 28, 35, and >90 calendar days at 35, 28, and 21 °C, respectively. The number of accumulated degree-days required for P. penetrans to reach a specific developmental stage was different for each temperature. Differences were observed in the development of P. penetrans at 21, 28, and 35 °C based on regression values fitted for data from 100 to 600 accumulated degree-days. A linear response was observed between 100 to 600 accumulated degree-days; however, after 600 accumulated degree-days the rate of development of P. penetrans leveled off at 21 and 28 °C, whereas at 35 °C the rate decreased. Results suggest that accumulated degree-days may be useful only in predicting early-developmental stages of P. penetrans.     

Model of Grapholita molesta spring emergence in pear orchards based on statistical information criteria

The oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta, is becoming a large threat to Korean pear production. Timely management of the egg and early larval stages from the spring emergence is critical to reduce the G. molesta population during the pear growing season. A model was developed to precisely predict the spring occurrence of G. molesta adults as a function of accumulated degree-days. The model was validated with male moth caught in sex pheromone-baited traps placed in pear orchards at two major pear production regions (Icheon and Naju) of Korea in 2010. We applied nine distribution models to describe the cumulative proportions of G. molesta males caught relative to accumulated degree-days. The observed phenology of the G. molesta spring population was well described by the nine models. The predicted dates for the cumulative 50% male moth catches were within a 5 day period. Based on statistical information criteria (Akaike's and Bayes–Schwartz information criteria), we recommend the sigmoid function referred by Brown and Mayer, because of its ease of use and meaningfulness; the parameter “b” denotes the degree-day accumulation at 50% moth emergence. The G. molesta spring emergence model could be applied to determine optimal chemical treatment timing for controlling G. molesta in fruit tree orchards and further help to develop a full-cycle phenology model of G. molesta.     

Temperature thresholds and degree-day model for Marmara gulosa (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae)

The developmental thresholds for Marmara gulosa Guillén & Davis (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae) were investigated in the laboratory by using 17, 21, 25, 29, and 33 degrees C. The lowest mortality occurred in cohorts exposed to 25 and 29 degrees C. Other temperatures caused >10% mortality primarily in egg and first and second instar sap-feeding larvae. Linear regression analysis approximated the lower developmental threshold at 12.2 degrees C. High mortality and slow developmental rate at 33 degrees C indicate the upper developmental threshold is near this temperature. The degree-day (DD) model indicated that a generation requires an accumulation of 322 DD for development from egg to adult emergence. Average daily temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley could produce up to seven generations of M. gulosa per year. Field studies documented two, five, and three overlapping generations of M. gulosa in walnuts (Juglans regia L.; Juglandaceae), pummelos (Citrus maxima (Burm.) Merr.; Rutaceae), and oranges (Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck; Rutaceae), for a total of seven observed peelminer generations. Degree-day units between generations averaged 375 DD for larvae infesting walnut twigs; however, availability of green wood probably affected timing of infestations. Degree-day units between larval generations averaged 322 for pummelos and 309 for oranges, confirming the laboratory estimation. First infestation of citrus occurred in June in pummelo fruit and August in orange fruit when fruit neared 60 mm in diameter. Fruit size and degree-day units could be used as management tools to more precisely time insecticide treatments to target the egg stage and prevent rind damage to citrus. Degree-day units also could be used to more precisely time natural enemy releases to target larval instars that are preferred for oviposition.     

An improved model for determining degree-day values from daily temperature data

Although using hourly weather data offers the greatest accuracy for estimating growing degree-day values, daily maximum and minimum temperature data are often used to estimate these values by approximating the diurnal temperature trends. This paper presents a new empirical model for estimating the hourly mean temperature. The model describes the diurnal variation using a sine function from the minimum temperature at sunrise until the maximum temperature is reached, another sine function from the maximum temperature until sunset, and a square-root function from then until sunrise the next morning. The model was developed and calibrated using several years of hourly data obtained from five automated weather stations located in California and representing a wide range of climate conditions. The model was tested against an additional data-set at each location. The temperature model gave good results, the root-mean-square error being less than 2.0 °C for most years and locations. The comparison with published models from the literature showed that the model was superior to the other methods. Hourly temperatures from the model were used to calculate degree-day values. A comparison between degree-day estimates determined from the model and those obtained other selected methods is presented. The results showed that the model had the best accuracy in general regardless of the season. Received: 25 October 2000 / Revised: 2 July 2001 / Accepted: 2 July 2001     

An empirical predictive model for the flight period of Platypus koryoensis (Coleoptera: Platypodinae)

Between 2007 and 2009, field studies were conducted in four Quercus mongolica Fischer ex Ledebour forests in Korea to develop an empirical degree-day model for the flight period of the ambrosia beetle, Platypus koryoensis (Murayama). The lower developmental threshold temperature was estimated using an iterative method based on field trap catches and temperatures. The pooled proportion of the total number of beetles found in the traps at the end of the experiment was plotted against the accumulated degree-days at selected baseline temperatures, and these plots were fitted by the Weibull function. The baseline temperature with the highest coefficient of determination was considered the lower developmental threshold temperature, and this was estimated to be 5.8 °C. The explanatory power of the model was 89 %. Moreover, the model accurately predicted the time distributions of P. koryoensis flights in 2011 and 2012 at one of the sites. The estimated median flight dates in 2011 and 2012 were 4 days earlier and 5 days later than the corresponding observed flight dates, respectively. The estimated median date of flight advanced progressively during 1970–2010 by a total of 9 days due to an increase in annual mean temperature.     

A degree-day model of sheep grazing influence on alfalfa weevil and crop characteristics

Domestic sheep (Ovis spp.) grazing is emerging as an integrated pest management tactic for alfalfa weevil, Hypera postica (Gyllenhal), management and a degree-day model is needed as a decision and support tool. In response to this need, grazing exclosures with unique degree-days and stocking rates were established at weekly intervals in a central Montana alfalfa field during 2008 and 2009. Analyses indicate that increased stocking rates and grazing degree-days were associated with decreased crop levels of weevil larvae. Larval data collected from grazing treatments were regressed against on-site and near-site temperatures that produced the same accuracy. The near-site model was chosen to encourage producer acceptance. The regression slope differed from zero, had an r2 of 0.83, and a root mean square error of 0.2. Crop data were collected to achieve optimal weevil management with forage quality and yield. Differences were recorded in crude protein, acid and neutral detergent fibers, total digestible nutrients, and mean stage by weight. Stem heights differed with higher stocking rates and degree-days recording the shortest alfalfa canopy height at harvest. The degree-day model was validated at four sites during 2010 with a mean square prediction error of 0.74. The recommendation from this research is to stock alfalfa fields in the spring before 63 DD with rates between 251 and 583 sheep days per hectare (d/ha). Sheep should be allowed to graze to a minimum of 106 and maximum of 150 DD before removal. This model gives field entomologists a new method for implementing grazing in an integrated pest management program.     

Phenology simulation model of Scotinophara lurida (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae)

A phenology simulation model was developed for Scotinophara lurida (Burmeister). The components for the model were a degree-day immigration flight model of overwintered adults, temperature-dependent developmental models of each stage, survival rates of each stage, and an adult oviposition model. A degree-day model for immigration flight of overwintered adults was developed with blacklight trap catch data by a Weibull function. Laboratory experiments using seven constant temperature regimens were conducted to determine the effect of temperature on the development of immature stages. Developmental rates of each immature stage fit well to a linear model. Distribution of developmental time for each immature stage was successfully modeled against physiological age by a Weibull function. To determine the temperature effect on longevity, fecundity, and survival of female adults, laboratory and greenhouse experiments were conducted. The adult developmental rate (1/median longevity) was described by a linear model. The oviposition model was developed incorporating the three components of average total fecundity, cumulative oviposition rate function, and survival rate function. The simulation model predicted the time of peak occurrences of life stages of S. lurida well.