Individual and Population Level Impact of Key HIV Risk Factors on HIV Incidence Rates in Durban,South Africa

We aimed to estimate the individual and joint impact of age, marital status and diagnosis with sexually transmitted infections (STIs) on HIV acquisition among young women at a population level in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A total of 3,978 HIV seronegative women were recruited for four biomedical intervention trials from 2002–2009. Point and interval estimates of partial population attributable risk (PAR) were used to quantify the proportion of HIV seroconversions which can be prevented if a combination of risk factors is eliminated from a target population. More than 70% of the observed HIV acquisitions were collectively attributed to the three risk factors: younger age (<25 years old), unmarried and not cohabiting with a stable/regular partner and diagnosis with STIs. Addressing these risks requires targeted structural, behavioural, biomedical and cultural interventions in order to impact on unacceptably high HIV incidence rates among young women and the population as a whole.     

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Systematic Comparison of Mathematical Models of the Potential Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV Incidence in South Africa

Background

Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART.

Methods and Findings

Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results.

Conclusions

Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in structure, complexity, and parameter choices, but all suggest that ART, at high levels of access and with high adherence, has the potential to substantially reduce new HIV infections. There was broad agreement regarding the short-term epidemiologic impact of ambitious treatment scale-up, but more variation in longer term projections and in the efficiency with which treatment can reduce new infections. Differences between model predictions could not be explained by differences in model structure or parameterization that were hypothesized to affect intervention impact. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Monitoring of Antiretroviral Therapy and Mortality in HIV Programmes in Malawi,South Africa and Zambia: Mathematical Modelling Study

Objectives

Mortality in patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is higher in Malawi and Zambia than in South Africa. We examined whether different monitoring of ART (viral load [VL] in South Africa and CD4 count in Malawi and Zambia) could explain this mortality difference.

Design:

Mathematical modelling study based on data from ART programmes.

Methods

We used a stochastic simulation model to study the effect of VL monitoring on mortality over 5 years. In baseline scenario A all parameters were identical between strategies except for more timely and complete detection of treatment failure with VL monitoring. Additional scenarios introduced delays in switching to second-line ART (scenario B) or higher virologic failure rates (due to worse adherence) when monitoring was based on CD4 counts only (scenario C). Results are presented as relative risks (RR) with 95% prediction intervals and percent of observed mortality difference explained.

Results

RRs comparing VL with CD4 cell count monitoring were 0.94 (0.74–1.03) in scenario A, 0.94 (0.77–1.02) with delayed switching (scenario B) and 0.80 (0.44–1.07) when assuming a 3-times higher rate of failure (scenario C). The observed mortality at 3 years was 10.9% in Malawi and Zambia and 8.6% in South Africa (absolute difference 2.3%). The percentage of the mortality difference explained by VL monitoring ranged from 4% (scenario A) to 32% (scenarios B and C combined, assuming a 3-times higher failure rate). Eleven percent was explained by non-HIV related mortality.

Conclusions

VL monitoring reduces mortality moderately when assuming improved adherence and decreased failure rates.     

Gender,Migration and HIV in Rural KwaZulu-Natal,South Africa

Objectives

Research on migration and HIV has largely focused on male migration, often failing to measure HIV risks associated with migration for women. We aimed to establish whether associations between migration and HIV infection differ for women and men, and identify possible mechanisms by which women''s migration contributes to their high infection risk.

Design

Data on socio-demographic characteristics, patterns of migration, sexual behavior and HIV infection status were obtained for a population of 11,677 women aged 15–49 and men aged 15–54, resident members of households within a demographic surveillance area participating in HIV surveillance in 2003–04.

Methods

Logistic regression was conducted to examine whether sex and migration were independently associated with HIV infection in three additive effects models, using measures of recent migration, household presence and migration frequency. Multiplicative effects models were fitted to explore whether the risk of HIV associated with migration differed for males and females. Further modeling and simulations explored whether composition or behavioral differences accounted for observed associations.

Results

Relative to non-migrant males, non-migrant females had higher odds of being HIV-positive (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.72; 95% confidence interval [1.49–1.99]), but odds were higher for female migrants (aOR = 2.55 [2.07–3.13]). Female migrants also had higher odds of infection relative to female non-migrants (aOR = 1.48 [1.23–1.77]). The association between number of sexual partners over the lifetime and HIV infection was modified by both sex and migrant status: For male non-migrants, each additional partner was associated with 3% higher odds of HIV infection (aOR = 1.03 [1.02–1.05]); for male migrants the association between number of partners and HIV infection was non-significant. Each additional partner increased odds of HIV infection by 22% for female non-migrants (aOR = 1.22 [1.12–1.32]) and 46% for female migrants (aOR = 1.46 [1.25–1.69]).

Conclusions

Higher risk sexual behavior in the context of migration increased women''s likelihood of HIV infection.     

Modelling the effectiveness of contraception for controlling introduced populations of elephant in South Africa

Re‐introduced African elephant (Loxodonta africana Blumenbach) populations are growing at very high rates in many of southern Africa’s reserves, have attained densities higher than previously thought possible and may be exhibiting irruptive growth. Active management of such populations is necessary to prevent the potentially negative effects on habitat and biodiversity that are associated with elephant overpopulation. One potentially feasible method of elephant management is immunocontraception, but very little is known about the long‐term effectiveness of this method. Using demographic data from three South African elephant populations, we made model projections of the effects of contraception on population growth rates to determine whether contraception may be a feasible management tool for elephant. In comparison with noncontracepted populations, realistic reductions in population growth rate after 20 years of contraception were projected to be up to c. 64%, with 50% being a very feasible target. Through its ability to reduce population growth rates, immunocontraception should be an effective tool for preventing or minimizing irruption in elephants and, perhaps, other introduced ungulate species.     

Application of Predictive Distribution Modelling to Invertebrates: Odonata in South Africa

The application of distributional modelling techniques to invertebrates has seldom been explored, primarily due to a lack in adequate distributional data for these taxa. Here, we have selected a simple modelling approach for the generation of distribution maps from a limited dataset, as a first step to the atlassing of Odonata in South Africa. The BIOCLIM-type approach was selected for this purpose, as it requires minimal data for model building and validation procedures. BIOCLIM partitions an area climatically prior to survey, and predicts species distributions on a bioclimatic basis. Conservative deterministic models were developed using point presence/absence data for each of the regions' 160 described species. These models were validated by cross-validation, and the Jaccard coefficient of similarity was used as an index of model performance. A sensitivity analysis investigated the influence of extreme values and errors in the data on predictive ability. Models identified disjunct distribution patterns and accurately predicted the restricted ranges of habitat-specialist species. However, models overstated the distribution of habitat generalists and species with distinct outlier records. For accurate predictions of broad-ranging species, it is suggested that a probabilistic approach be adopted. Nevertheless, basic distribution patterns generated through this conservative approach can be further applied to the investigation of species richness and issues relating to conservation, such as reserve design. The BIOCLIM-type approach provided a means of predicting species distributions, allowing for broad-scale atlassing and thereby providing the first step towards Odonata conservation in South Africa.     

Patient Experiences following Acute HIV Infection Diagnosis and Counseling in South Africa

Individuals in the acute stage of HIV infection (AHI) have an elevated potential to transmit HIV and play a critical role in the growth of the epidemic. Routine identification and counseling of individuals during AHI could decrease transmission behavior during this key period. However, diagnosis of AHI may present challenges distinct from those experienced through diagnosis of established HIV infection. A study was conducted in a public youth clinic outside of Cape Town, South Africa, to identify and counsel individuals with acute stage HIV infection. In-depth interviews were conducted with patients following diagnosis. After counseling, patients were accepting of the testing regimen used to diagnose AHI. They used the knowledge of having been recently infected to identify the source of their infection, but did not retain or place importance on information regarding the increased ability to transmit HIV during the acute stage. Future interventions directed at the reduction of HIV transmission following diagnosis with AHI will need to find ways of making this information more salient, possibly through more culturally meaningful educational approaches.     

Attrition through Multiple Stages of Pre-Treatment and ART HIV Care in South Africa

Introduction

While momentum for increasing treatment thresholds is growing, if patients cannot be retained in HIV care from the time of testing positive through long-term adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART), such strategies may fall short of expected gains. While estimates of retention on ART exist, few cohorts have data on retention from testing positive through long-term ART care.

Methods

We explored attrition (loss or death) at the Themba Lethu HIV clinic, Johannesburg, South Africa in 3 distinct cohorts enrolled at HIV testing, pre-ART initiation, and ART initiation.

Results

Between March 2010 and August 2012 we enrolled 380 patients testing HIV+, 206 initiating pre-ART care, and 185 initiating ART. Of the 380 patients enrolled at testing HIV-positive, 38.7% (95%CI: 33.9–43.7%) returned for eligibility staging within ≤3 months of testing. Of the 206 enrolled at pre-ART care, 84.5% (95%CI: 79.0–88.9%) were ART eligible at their first CD4 count. Of those, 87.9% (95%CI: 82.4–92.2%) initiated ART within 6 months. Among patients not ART eligible at their first CD4 count, 50.0% (95%CI: 33.1–66.9%) repeated their CD4 count within one year of the first ineligible CD4. Among the 185 patients in the ART cohort, 22 transferred out and were excluded from further analysis. Of the remaining 163, 81.0% (95%CI: 74.4–86.5%) were retained in care through two years on treatment.

Conclusions

Our findings from a well-resourced clinic demonstrate continual loss from all stages of HIV care and strategies to reduce attrition from all stages of care are urgently needed.     

Participation Dynamics in Population-Based Longitudinal HIV Surveillance in Rural South Africa

Population-based HIV surveillance is crucial to inform understanding of the HIV pandemic and evaluate HIV interventions, but little is known about longitudinal participation patterns in such settings. We investigated the dynamics of longitudinal participation patterns in a high HIV prevalence surveillance setting in rural South Africa between 2003 and 2012, taking into account demographic dynamics. At any given survey round, 22,708 to 30,495 persons were eligible. Although the yearly participation rates were relatively modest (26% to 46%), cumulative rates increased substantially with multiple recruitment opportunities: 68% of eligible persons participated at least once, 48% at least twice and 31% at least three times after five survey rounds. We identified two types of study fatigue: at the individual level, contact and consent rates decreased with multiple recruitment opportunities and, at the population level, these rates also decreased over calendar time, independently of multiple recruitment opportunities. Using sequence analysis and hierarchical clustering, we identified three broad individual participation profiles: consenters (20%), switchers (43%) and refusers (37%). Men were over represented among refusers, women among consenters, and temporary non-residents among switchers. The specific subgroup of persons who were systemically not contacted or refusers constitutes a challenge for population-based surveillance and interventions.     

Estimated HIV Trends and Program Effects in Botswana

Background

This study uses surveillance, survey and program data to estimate past trends and current levels of HIV in Botswana and the effects of treatment and prevention programs.

Methods/Principal Findings

Data from sentinel surveillance at antenatal clinics and a national population survey were used to estimate the trend of adult HIV prevalence from 1980 to 2007. Using the prevalence trend we estimated the number of new adult infections, the transmission from mothers to children, the need for treatment and the effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and adult and child deaths. Prevalence has declined slowly in urban areas since 2000 and has remained stable in rural areas. National prevalence is estimated at 26% (25–27%) in 2007. About 330,000 (318,000–335,000) people are infected with HIV including 20,000 children. The number of new adult infections has been stable for several years at about 20,000 annually (12,000–26,000). The number of new child infections has declined from 4600 in 1999 to about 890 (810–980) today due to nearly complete coverage of an effective program to prevent mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT). The annual number of adult deaths has declined from a peak of over 15,500 in 2003 to under 7400 (5000–11,000) today due to coverage of ART that reaches over 80% in need. The need for ART will increase by 60% by 2016.

Conclusions

Botswana''s PMTCT and treatment programs have achieved significant results in preventing new child infections and deaths among adults and children. The number of new adult infections continues at a high level. More effective prevention efforts are urgently needed.     

Prenatal Exposure to Cadmium,Placental Permeability and Birth Outcomes in Coastal Populations of South Africa

Background

The impact of prenatal exposure to cadmium (Cd) on birth outcomes is an area of concern. This study aimed to assess an impact of prenatal Cd exposure on birth outcomes in distinct coastal populations of South Africa.

Methods

Cadmium was measured in maternal blood (CdB) (n = 641), cord blood and in maternal urine (n = 317). This investigation assessed the associations between CdB (non-transformed) and birth outcomes across the 25^th, 50th, and 75th percentile for birth weight, birth length and head circumference, to test for a linear trend. Associations between natural log-transformed maternal CdB, size at birth and other factors were further evaluated using linear mixed-effects modelling with random intercepts.

Results

The average gestational age in the total sample was 38 weeks; 47% of neonates were female, average birth weight was 3065 g and 11% were of low birth weight (< 2500 g). The geometric mean (GM) of the maternal CdB level was 0.25 μg/L (n = 641; 95% CI, 0.23–0.27). The cord blood Cd level was 0.27 μg/L (n = 317; 95% CI, 0.26–0.29) and urine (creatinine-corrected) Cd level was 0.27 μg/L (n = 318; 95% CI, 0.24–0.29). The CdB cord:maternal ratio in the sub-cohort was 1, suggesting that the placenta offers no protective mechanism to the foetus. An inverse association was found between CdB and the lower birth weight percentile in female neonates only (β = - 0.13, p = 0.047). Mothers who reported eating vine vegetables daily had lower levels of CdB (β = - 0.55, p = 0.025). Maternal smoking was associated with an elevation in natural log-transformed CdB levels in both male and female cohorts.

Discussion

Significant inverse associations between prenatal Cd exposure and birth anthropometry were found in female neonates but not in male neonates, suggesting potential sex differences in the toxico-kinetics and toxico-dynamics of Cd.     

European Origin of Bradyrhizobium Populations Infecting Lupins and Serradella in Soils of Western Australia and South Africa

We applied a multilocus phylogenetic approach to elucidate the origin of serradella and lupin Bradyrhizobium strains that persist in soils of Western Australia and South Africa. The selected strains belonged to different randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD)-PCR clusters that were distinct from RAPD clusters of applied inoculant strains. Phylogenetic analyses were performed with nodulation genes (nodA, nodZ, nolL, noeI), housekeeping genes (dnaK, recA, glnII, atpD), and 16S-23S rRNA intergenic transcribed spacer sequences. Housekeeping gene phylogenies revealed that all serradella and Lupinus cosentinii isolates from Western Australia and three of five South African narrow-leaf lupin strains were intermingled with the strains of Bradyrhizobium canariense, forming a well supported branch on each of the trees. All nodA gene sequences of the lupin and serradella bradyrhizobia formed a single branch, referred to as clade II, together with the sequences of other lupin and serradella strains. Similar patterns were detected in nodZ and nolL trees. In contrast, nodA sequences of the strains isolated from native Australian legumes formed either a new branch called clade IV or belonged to clade I or III, whereas their nonsymbiotic genes grouped outside the B. canariense branch. These data suggest that the lupin and serradella strains, including the strains from uncultivated L.cosentinii plants, are descendants of strains that most likely were brought from Europe accidentally with lupin and serradella seeds. The observed dominance of B. canariense strains may be related to this species' adaptation to acid soils common in Western Australia and South Africa and, presumably, to their intrinsic ability to compete for nodulation of lupins and serradella.     

Mate Recognition in the South African Citrus Thrips Scirtothrips aurantii (Faure) and Cross-Mating Tests with Populations from Australia and South Africa

South African citrus thrips (Scirtothrips aurantii) is a pest of citrus, mango and other horticultural species in its native range, which encompasses a large part of Africa. Its adventitious establishment in Australia in 2002 was a major cause for concern. The thrips, 11 years after its incursion into Australia, has remained on plants of a single host plant genus Bryophyllum (Crassulaceae). Characterization of the Specific-Mate Recognition System of the Bryophyllum population of thrips present in Australia and behavioral bioassay experiments revealed that compounds found in the insects’ body extracts play a crucial role in mate recognition of S. aurantii. Reciprocal cross-mating experiments between the Australian Bryophyllum insects and South African S. aurantii from horticultural host plants showed that mating frequencies were significantly lower in test crosses (Bryophyllum x horticultural) than in controls (Bryophyllum x Bryophyllum or horticultural x horticultural), which indicates there are at least two distinct species within S. aurantii and suggests further tests of this interpretation. The results suggest that these tiny phytophagous insects localize mates through their association with a particular host plant species (or closely-related group of species). Also, specific tests are suggested for clarifying the species status of the host-associated populations of S. aurantii in Africa.