Age at arrival and risk of obesity among US immigrants

Although immigrants are a rapidly growing subgroup, little is known about overweight/obesity among the foreign-born in the United States, especially regarding the effect of age at arrival. This study determined whether overweight/obesity prevalence is associated with age at arrival of immigrants to the United States. We analyzed data on 6,421 adult immigrants from the New Immigrant Survey (NIS), a study that is nationally representative of adult immigrants with newly acquired legal permanent residence (LPR). Multiple regression analyses tested the effects of duration of residence and age at arrival on overweight/obesity, defined by BMI of > or = 25 kg/m(2), and self-reported dietary change score. We found the relationship between duration of residence and overweight/obesity prevalence varied by age at arrival (P < 0.001). Immigrants < or = 20-years old at arrival who had resided in the United States > or = 15 years were 11 times (95% confidence interval: 5.33, 22.56) more likely to be overweight/obese than immigrants < 20-years old at arrival who had resided in the United States < or = 1 year. By comparison, there was no difference in overweight/obesity prevalence by duration among immigrants who arrived at >50 years of age. Higher self-reported dietary change is also associated with overweight/obesity. In conclusion, immigrants younger than 20 at arrival in the United States may be at higher risk of overweight/obesity with increasing duration of residence than those who arrive at later ages. Obesity prevention among young US immigrants should be a priority.     

Prevalence of hospitalized patients with sarcoidosis in Croatia

The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of hospitalized patients of sarcoidosis in the Republic of Croatia, its distribution in relation to sex and age as well as its geographical distribution. The data on sarcoidosis patients hospitalized in Croatia in the last six years, from 1997 to 2002, were analyzed retrospectively. The prevalence of sarcoidosis patients hospitalised in the Republic of Croatia is 4.1/100,000. The prevalence among women is 4.7 and among men 3.5 per 100,000 persons, with a ratio of 1.4:1. The disease more frequently occurs in the regions with a continental climate than in the Mediterranean zone. The ratio of sarcoidosis patients in the continental zone to the Mediterranean zone is 1.5:1. It occurs predominantly among the adults. Over the investigated period, in our country we have not registered any case of sarcoidosis among children. It occurs more frequently at a younger age and therefore 44.5% of the patients with sarcoidosis were between 20 and 39 years of age, 40.1% were between 40 and 59 years of age and 15.3% were more than 60 years old.     

Predictive Value of the Tuberculin Skin Test among Newly Arriving Immigrants

Rationale

Screening and treating newly arriving immigrants for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in low-incidence countries could be promising to reduce the tuberculosis incidence among this population. The effectiveness of screening with the tuberculin skin test (TST) is unknown.

Objectives

To estimate the risk of progression to tuberculosis within two years after entry, stratified by TST result at entry.

Methods

In a case-base design, we determined the prevalence of TST positives (10 mm and 15 mm) among a representative cohort of immunocompetent immigrants (n = 643) aged ≥18 years who arrived between April 2009 and March 2011 in the Netherlands (base cohort). Immigrants who progressed to tuberculosis within two years after arrival in 2005, 2006 or 2007 were extracted from the Netherlands Tuberculosis Register (case source cohort). The prevalence of TST positives from the base cohort was projected on the case source cohort to estimate the risk of progression to active tuberculosis by using Bayesian analyses to adjust for the sensitivity of the TST and Poisson regression analyses to take into account the random error of the number of extracted cases.

Results

The prevalence of TST positives was 42% and 23% for a cut-off value of 10 mm and 15 mm, respectively. The overall risk of progression to tuberculosis if TST positive was 238 per 100,000 population (95% CI 151–343) and 295 per 100,000 population (95% CI 161–473) for a cut-off value of ≥10 mm and ≥15 mm, respectively. The corresponding risk for TST negatives was 19 (95% CI 0–59) and 58 (95% CI 25–103).

Conclusion

The TST has the discriminatory ability to differentiate between individuals at low and high risk of disease.     

Population dynamics of the whitebacked planthopper,Sogatella furcifera (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) with special reference to the relationship between its population growth and the growth stage of rice plants

A population census was conducted to describe the effects of the growth stage of rice on the population dynamics ofS. furcifera, in particular, on immigration, seasonal abundance, population growth rate, and wing-form expression. The number of immigrants was highest on rice plants 17 to 30 days after transplanting (DAT), which suggested that immigrants prefer to settle or remain more on rice plants at the tillering stage (approximately 20–30 DAT). Population growth rate from immigration to the 1st generation decreased with an increase in rice plant age. In contrast, population growth rate from the 1st to 2nd generation was not influenced by rice plant age and was negatively density-dependent. The percentage of macropters (flyers) was positively related to the growth stage of rice when rice was in the vegetative or early part of the reproductive stage, and reached 100% at about 10 days before heading (booting stage). Threafter, most adult females molted into macropters regardless of population density. The roles of host plant age and crowding effect on the population dynamics ofS. furcifera are discussed.     

Seropositivity and geographical distribution of Strongyloides stercoralis in Australia: A study of pathology laboratory data from 2012–2016

BackgroundThere are no national prevalence studies of Strongyloides stercoralis infection in Australia, although it is known to be endemic in northern Australia and is reported in high risk groups such as immigrants and returned travellers. We aimed to determine the seropositivity (number positive per 100,000 of population and percent positive of those tested) and geographical distribution of S. stercoralis by using data from pathology laboratories.MethodologyWe contacted all seven Australian laboratories that undertake Strongyloides serological (ELISA antibody) testing to request de-identified data from 2012–2016 inclusive. Six responded. One provided positive data only. The number of people positive, number negative and number tested per 100,000 of population (Australian Bureau of Statistics data) were calculated including for each state/territory, each Australian Bureau of Statistics Statistical Area Level 3 (region), and each suburb/town/community/locality. The data was summarized and expressed as maps of Australia and Greater Capital Cities.Principal findingsWe obtained data for 81,777 people who underwent serological testing for Strongyloides infection, 631 of whom were from a laboratory that provided positive data only. Overall, 32 (95% CI: 31, 33) people per 100,000 of population were seropositive, ranging between 23/100,000 (95% CI: 19, 29) (Tasmania) and 489/100,000 population (95%CI: 462, 517) (Northern Territory). Positive cases were detected across all states and territories, with the highest (260-996/100,000 and 17–40% of those tested) in regions across northern Australia, north-east New South Wales and north-west South Australia. Some regions in Greater Capital Cities also had a high seropositivity (112-188/100,000 and 17–20% of those tested). Relatively more males than females tested positive. Relatively more adults than children tested positive. Children were under-represented in the data.Conclusions/SignificanceThe study confirms that substantial numbers of S. stercoralis infections occur in Australia and provides data to inform public health planning.     

Minimizing the dependency ratio in a population with below-replacement fertility through immigration

Many industrialized countries face fertility rates below replacement level, combined with declining mortality especially in older ages. Consequently, the populations of these countries have started to age. One important indicator of age structures is the dependency ratio which is the ratio of the nonworking age population to the working age population. In this work we find the age-specific immigration profile that minimizes the dependency ratio in a stationary population with below-replacement fertility. It is assumed that the number of immigrants per age is limited. We consider two alternative policies. In the first one, we fix the total number of people who annually immigrate to a country. In the second one, we prescribe the size of the receiving country’s population. For both cases we provide numerical results for the optimal immigration profile, for the resulting age structure of the population, as well as for the dependency ratio.     

Epidemiological features of suicides in Osijek County,Croatia, from 1986 to 2000

Suicide is a devastating tragedy associated with social, cultural and psychological factors. It takes approximately 1,060 lives in the Republic of Croatia each year. We retrospectively reviewed all cases referred to in the Registrar office and Police Department at Osijek County from 1986 to 2000. The cases of suicide totaled 1,017. All of the cases were analyzed as to age, gender, marital status, occupation, place and time of suicide and method of suicide. The suicide rate for the entire population of the County averaged 20.5/100,000 inhabitants per annum. The age of the suicides ranged from 15 to 92. The male to female ratio was 2.1:1. The highest suicide incidence was among the age groups from 55 to 64 (19.27%), followed by age group from 45 to 54 (16.12%). The lowest suicide incidence was among the age group < 19 (3.4%). The incidence in the group 85 > years was also low (2.06%). The suicide was frequent among people who live alone: single, widowed, divorced (47.29%). Eighty percent of victims were found in surroundings familiar to them. These included various premises of their residences. The retired, the laborers and the unemployed (67.36%) were predominant among suicide victims. The most common methods of suicide were hanging (43%), followed by firearms (24%). No correlation was found with the day of the week or the month of the year. The study showed a slightly increased rate of suicide, from 21 cases at the beginning of the investigation (in 1986) to 22.3/100,000 population fifteen years later (in 2000).     

Multimorbidity and Its Patterns according to Immigrant Origin. A Nationwide Register-Based Study in Norway

Introduction

As the flows of immigrant populations increase worldwide, their heterogeneity becomes apparent with respect to the differences in the prevalence of chronic physical and mental disease. Multimorbidity provides a new framework in understanding chronic diseases holistically as the consequence of environmental, social, and personal risks that contribute to increased vulnerability to a wide variety of illnesses. There is a lack of studies on multimorbidity among immigrants compared to native-born populations.

Methodology

This nationwide multi-register study in Norway enabled us i) to study the associations between multimorbidity and immigrant origin, accounting for other known risk factors for multimorbidity such as gender, age and socioeconomic levels using logistic regression analyses, and ii) to identify patterns of multimorbidity in Norway for immigrants and Norwegian-born by means of exploratory factor analysis technique.

Results

Multimorbidity rates were lower for immigrants compared to Norwegian-born individuals, with unadjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals 0.38 (0.37–0.39) for Eastern Europe, 0.58 (0.57–0.59) for Asia, Africa and Latin America, and 0.67 (0.66–0.68) for Western Europe and North America. Results remained significant after adjusting for socioeconomic factors. Similar multimorbidity disease patterns were observed among Norwegian-born and immigrants, in particular between Norwegian-born and those from Western European and North American countries. However, the complexity of patterns that emerged for the other immigrant groups was greater. Despite differences observed in the development of patterns with age, such as ischemic heart disease among immigrant women, we were unable to detect the systematic development of the multimorbidity patterns among immigrants at younger ages.

Conclusions

Our study confirms that migrants have lower multimorbidity levels compared to Norwegian-born. The greater complexity of multimorbidity patterns for some immigrant groups requires further investigation. Health care policies and practice will require a holistic approach for specific population groups in order to meet their health needs and to curb and prevent diseases.     

Impact of treating hyperlipidemia or hypertension to reduce the risk of death from coronary artery disease

OBJECTIVE: To compare the prevalence of modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular disease among hypertensive and nonhypertensive adults and to estimate the effect of treating hyperlipidemia or hypertension to reduce the risk of death from coronary artery disease. METHODS: The authors evaluated a sample of 7814 subjects aged 35-74 years free of clinical cardiovascular disease from the Canadian Heart Health Surveys to estimate the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors. They identified hyperlipidemic subjects (ratio of total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [total-C/HDL-C] 6.0 [corrected] or more for men and 5.0 [corrected] or more for women) and hypertensive subjects (systolic or diastolic blood pressure 160/90 mm Hg or greater, or receiving pharmacologic or nonpharmacologic treatment). A life expectancy model was used to estimate the rate of death from coronary artery disease following specific treatments. RESULTS: An elevated total-C/HDL-C ratio was significantly more common among hypertensive than nonhypertensive men aged 35-64 (rate ratio [RR] 1.56 for age 35-54, 1.28 for age 55-64) and among hypertensive than nonhypertensive women of all ages (RR 2.73 for age 35-54, 1.58 for age 55-64, 1.31 for age 65-74). Obesity and a sedentary lifestyle were also more common among hypertensive than among nonhypertensive subjects. According to the model, more deaths from coronary artery disease could be prevented among subjects with treated but uncontrolled hypertension by modifying lipids rather than by further reducing blood pressure for men aged 35-54 (reduction of 50 v. 29 deaths per 100,000) and 55-64 (reduction of 171 v. 104 deaths per 100,000) and for women aged 35-54 (reduction of 44 v. 39 deaths per 100,000). Starting antihypertensive therapy in subjects aged 35-74 with untreated hypertension would achieve a greater net reduction in deaths from coronary artery disease than would lipid lowering. Nonetheless, the benefits of lipid therapy were substantial: lipid intervention among hypertensive subjects aged 35-74 represented 36% of the total benefits of treating hyperlipidemia in the total hyperlipidemic population. INTERPRETATION: The clustering of hyperlipidemia and the potential benefits of treatment among hypertensive adults demonstrate the need for screening and treating other cardiovascular risk factors beyond simply controlling blood pressure.     

A Significant Increase in the Incidence of Central Precocious Puberty among Korean Girls from 2004 to 2010

Background

Few studies have explored the trends in central precocious puberty (CPP) in Asian populations. This study assessed the prevalence and annual incidence of CPP among Korean children.

Methods

Using data from the Korean Health Insurance Review Agency from 2004 to 2010, we reviewed the records of 21,351 children, including those registered with a diagnosis of CPP for the first time and those diagnosed with CPP who were treated with gonadotropin-releasing hormone analogs.

Results

The prevalence of CPP was 55.9 per 100,000 girls and 1.7 per 100,000 boys, respectively. The overall incidence of CPP was 15.3 per 100,000 girls, and 0.6 per 100,000 boys. The annual incidence of CPP in girls significantly increased from 3.3 to 50.4 per 100,000 girls; whereas in boys, it gradually increased from 0.3 to 1.2 per 100,000 boys. The annual incidence of CPP in girls consistently increased at all ages year by year, with greater increases at older ages (≥6 years of age), and smaller increases in girls aged < 6 years. In contrast, the annual incidence remained relatively constant in boys aged < 8 years, while a small increase was observed only in boys aged 8 years. The increase of annual incidence showed significant differences depending on age and gender (P <0.0001).

Conclusions

The annual incidence of CPP has substantially increased among Korean girls over the past 7 years. Continued monitoring of CPP trends among Korean children will be informative.     

The Relative Contribution of Immigration or Local Increase for Persistence of Urban Schistosomiasis in Salvador,Bahia, Brazil

Urbanization is increasing across the globe, and diseases once considered rural can now be found in urban areas due to the migration of populations from rural endemic areas, local transmission within the city, or a combination of factors. We investigated the epidemiologic characteristics of urban immigrants and natives living in a neighborhood of Salvador, Brazil where there is a focus of transmission of Schistosoma mansoni. In a cross-sectional study, all inhabitants from 3 sections of the community were interviewed and examined. In order to determine the degree of parasite differentiation between immigrants and the native born, S. mansoni eggs from stools were genotyped for 15 microsatellite markers. The area received migrants from all over the state, but most infected children had never been outside of the city, and infected snails were present at water contact sites. Other epidemiologic features suggested immigration contributed little to the presence of infection. The intensity and prevalence of infection were the same for immigrants and natives when adjusted for age, and length of immigrant residence in the community was positively associated with prevalence of infection. The population structure of the parasites also supported that the contribution from immigration was small, since the host-to-host differentiation was no greater in the urban parasite population than a rural population with little distant immigration, and there had been little differentiation in the urban population over the past 7 years. Public health efforts should focus on eliminating local transmission, and once eliminated, reintroduction from distant migration is unlikely.     

Acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage in west of Scotland: case ascertainment study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence and case fatality of acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage in the west of Scotland and to identify associated factors. DESIGN: Case ascertainment study. SETTING: All hospitals treating adults with acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage in the west of Scotland. SUBJECTS: 1882 patients aged 15 years and over treated in hospitals for acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage during a six month period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence of acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage per 100,000 population per year, and case fatality. RESULTS: The annual incidence was 172 per 100,000 people aged 15 and over. The annual population mortality was 14.0 per 100,000. Both were higher among elderly people, men, and patients resident in areas of greater social deprivation. Overall case fatality was 8.2%. This was higher among those who bled as inpatients after admission for other reasons (42%) and those admitted as tertiary referrals (16%). Factors associated with increased case fatality were age, uraemia, pre-existing malignancy, hepatic failure, hypotension, cardiac failure, and frank haematemesis or a history of syncope at presentation. Social deprivation, sex, and anaemia were not associated with increased case fatality after adjustment for other factors. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage was 67% greater than the highest previously reported incidence in the United Kingdom, which may be partially attributable to the greater social deprivation in the west of Scotland and may be related to the increased prevalence of Helicobacter pylori. Fatality after acute upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage was associated with age, comorbidity, hypotension, and raised blood urea concentrations on admission. Although deprivation was associated with increased incidence, it was not related to the risk of fatality.     

Quantifying the contribution of immigration to population dynamics: a review of methods,evidence and perspectives in birds and mammals

The demography of a population is often reduced to the apparent (or local) survival of individuals and their realised fecundity within a study area defined according to logistical constraints rather than landscape features. Such demographics are then used to infer whether a local population contributes positively to population dynamics across a wider landscape context. Such a simplistic approach ignores a fundamental process underpinning population dynamics: dispersal. Indeed, it has long been accepted that immigration contributed by dispersers that emigrated from neighbouring populations may strongly influence the net growth of a local population. To date however, we lack a clear picture of how widely immigration rate varies both among and within populations, in relation to extrinsic and intrinsic ecological conditions, even for the best‐studied avian and mammalian populations. This empirical knowledge gap precludes the emergence of a sound conceptual framework that ought to inform conservation and population ecology. This review, conducted on both birds and mammals, has thus three complementary objectives. First, we describe and evaluate the relative merits of methods used to quantify immigration and how they relate to widely applicable metrics. We identify two simple and unifying metrics to measure immigration: the immigration rate i_t defined as the ratio of the number of immigrants present in the population at time t + 1 and the total breeding population in year t, and π_t , the proportion of immigrants among new recruits (i.e. new breeders). Two recently developed methods are likely to provide the most valuable data on immigration in the near future: individual parentage (rather than population) assignments based on genetic sampling, and spatially explicit integrated population models combining multiple sources of demographic data (survival, fecundity and population counts). Second, we report on a systematic literature review of studies providing a quantitative measure of immigration. Although the diversity of methods employed precludes detailed analyses, it appears that the number of immigrants exceeds locally born individuals in recruitment for most avian populations (median π_t  = 0.57, N = 45 estimates from 37 studies), a figure twofold higher than estimated for mammalian populations (median π_t  = 0.26, N = 33 estimates from 11 studies). Third, recent quantitative studies reveal that immigration can be the main driver of temporal variation in population growth rates, across a wide array of demographic and spatial contexts. To what extent immigration acts as a regulatory process has however been considered only rarely to date and deserves more attention. Overall, it is likely that most populations benefit from immigrants without necessarily being sink populations. Furthermore, we suggest that quantitative estimates of immigration should be core to future demographic studies and plead for more empirical evidence about the ways in which immigration interacts with local demographic processes to shape population dynamics. Finally, we discuss how to tackle spatial population dynamics by exploring, beyond the classical source–sink framework, the extent to which populations exchange individuals according to spatial scale and type of population distribution throughout the landscape.     

The influence of immigration on demography of sympatric voles

We studied the influence of immigration on the dynamics ofMicrotus ochrogaster Wagner, 1842 andM. pennsylvanicus Ord, 1815 populations in alfalfa, bluegrass, and tallgrass prairie in east-central Illinois for 25 years. The numbers of immigrants in a site were positively correlated with overall population densities of the species in the vicinity of the study sites and within the study site. Population density of the other species was not correlated with immigration of either species. Immigrants did not differ significantly from residents with respect to sex-ratio and reproductive condition. Persistence of immigrantM. pennsylvanicus was lower than that of resident adults in all three habitats, while that of immigrantM. ochrogaster was lower than that of resident adults in alfalfa, where the species was most abundant. Neither the absolute number of immigrants nor the proportion of the population composed of immigrants indicated an effect of immigrants on among- and within-habitat differences in demography and population fluctuations of either species. Immigrants may have been an important factor in maintenance ofM. pennsylvanicus in alfalfa, a low-quality habitat, but the influence of immigration on the dynamics of populations inhabiting other habitats was insubstantial.     

Risk of HIV infection from blood transfusion in Montreal

OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence (including associated donor characteristics and time trends) of HIV infection among repeat blood donors and to estimate the risk of HIV transmission from blood transfusion in Montreal and in Canada as a whole. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort analysis. SETTING: Montreal Centre Blood Transfusion Service. PARTICIPANTS: People who donated blood at least twice after Nov. 1, 1985, and at least once from Apr. 1, 1989, to Mar. 31, 1993. INTERVENTION: Blood was screened for HIV by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and results were confirmed by Western blot analysis. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence density (the incidence rate per person-time) of HIV infection among repeat blood donors by sex, age group and region of residence, and incidence density and risk among first-time donors and for Canada as whole. RESULTS: There were 200,196 eligible donors and 432,631 person-years (PY) of observation. From 1989 to 1993, there were 18 HIV seroconversions among repeat donors. The crude incidence density was 3.3 per 100,000 PY (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.8 to 5.4 per 100,000 PY); it was 4.9 per 100,000 PY among men and 0.61 per 100,000 PY among women. Age-specific incidence per 100,000 PY was 2.5 among those 12-29 years of age, 5.1 among those 30-49, 2.9 among those 40-49, and 1.4 among those 50 and older. Based on an estimated mean "window period" (from when a donor''s blood is capable of transmitting HIV until detectable antibody appears) of 25 days, the current risk of HIV infection from repeat donors in the window period is estimated at 1 in 440,000. Inclusion of blood units from first-time donors produces an overall risk of 1 in 390,000 (95% CI 1 in 250,000 to 655,000). The estimated risk per blood unit in Canada as a whole is 1 in 913000 (95% CI 1 in 507,000 to 2,050,000). CONCLUSIONS: This "sentinel" population of repeat blood donors is subject to important trends in HIV spread. Therefore, estimating the incidence density of HIV infection in repeat donors provides insight into the epidemiologic characteristics of HIV infection at minimal expense. As a result of measures to improve blood safety, including HIV testing, the incidence of HIV infection among blood donors in Canada is low and the risk of HIV transmission from transfusion is extremely small, although not zero.     

Evaluating spatially adaptive guidelines for the treatment of gonorrhea to reduce the incidence of gonococcal infection and increase the effective lifespan of antibiotics

In the absence of point-of-care gonorrhea diagnostics that report antibiotic susceptibility, gonorrhea treatment is empiric and determined by standardized guidelines. These guidelines are informed by estimates of resistance prevalence from national surveillance systems. We examined whether guidelines informed by local, rather than national, surveillance data could reduce the incidence of gonorrhea and increase the effective lifespan of antibiotics used in treatment guidelines. We used a transmission dynamic model of gonorrhea among men who have sex with men (MSM) in 16 U.S. metropolitan areas to determine whether spatially adaptive treatment guidelines based on local estimates of resistance prevalence can extend the effective lifespan of hypothetical antibiotics. The rate of gonorrhea cases in these metropolitan areas was 5,548 cases per 100,000 MSM in 2017. Under the current strategy of updating the treatment guideline when the prevalence of resistance exceeds 5%, we showed that spatially adaptive guidelines could reduce the annual rate of gonorrhea cases by 200 cases (95% uncertainty interval: 169, 232) per 100,000 MSM population while extending the use of a first-line antibiotic by 0.75 (0.55, 0.95) years. One potential strategy to reduce the incidence of gonorrhea while extending the effective lifespan of antibiotics is to inform treatment guidelines based on local, rather than national, resistance prevalence.     

The Incidence of End-Stage Renal Disease in the Diabetic (Compared to the Non-Diabetic) Population: A Systematic Review

End-stage renal disease (ESRD) in diabetes is a life threatening complication resulting in a poor prognosis for patients as well as high medical costs. The aims of this systematic review were (1) to evaluate the incidence of ESRD due to all causes and due to diabetic nephropathy in the diabetic population and differences between incidences of ESRD with respect to sex, ethnicity, age and regions, (2) to compare incidence rates in the diabetic and non-diabetic population, and (3) to investigate time trends. The systematic review was conducted according to the PRISMA group guidelines by performing systematic literature searches in the biomedical databases until January 3^rd 2015; thirty-two studies were included. Among patients with incident type 1 diabetes the 30-year cumulative incidence ranged from 3.3% to 7.8%. Among patients with prevalent diabetes, incidence rates of ESRD due to all causes ranged from 132.0 to 167.0 per 100,000 person-years, whereas incidence rates of ESRD due to diabetic nephropathy varied from 38.4 to 804.0 per 100,000 person-years. The incidence of ESRD in the diabetic population was higher compared to the non-diabetic population, and relative risks varied from 6.2 in the white population to 62.0 among Native Americans. The results regarding time trends were inconsistent. The review conducted demonstrates the considerable variation of incidences of ESRD among the diabetic population. Consistent findings included an excess risk when comparing the diabetic to the non-diabetic population and ethnic differences. We recommend that newly designed studies should use standardized methods for the determination of ESRD and population at risk.     

Incidence of multiple myeloma in Kailuan cohort: A prospective community-based study in China

BackgroundPrevious retrospective studies showed that the incidence and mortality rates for MM in China were lower than those in western countries. A large-scale prospective study on incidence and mortality rates of MM is still lacking.MethodsBased on the prospective Kailuan Cohort study in China, we included all patients with MM in Kailuan Cohort from June 1, 2008 to December 31, 2016. Using the numbers of diagnosed cases and deaths during the study period as the numerators and the corresponding observed person-years as the denominators respectively, we calculated crude incidence and mortality rates. The 95% confidence intervals for crude incidence rate and mortality rate were estimated base on Poisson distribution. Rates were standardized by direct standardization according to the China population in 2000 and Segi’ world standard population.ResultsA total of 22 members from Kailuan Cohort were first diagnosed with MM between 2008 and 2016. The calculated crude incidence rates were 2.8 (95% CI, 1.7–4.2) per 100,000 person-years for all participants. The standardized incidence rate was 0.9 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.5–2.1) when standardized by 2000 China population census data, and 1.0 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.6–1.8) when standardized by Segi’s world standard population (WSP). The calculated crude mortality rates were 2.3 (95% CI, 1.4–3.6) per 100,000 person-years. The mortality standardized by 2000 China population census data was 0.7 per 100,000 person-years (95% CI, 0.3–1.9), and 0.9 per 100,000 population (95% CI, 0.5–1.7) when standardized by Segi’s WSP. Both incidence and mortality for males were higher than that for females almost in all age groups. Both rates increased steadily with age.ConclusionIn this community-based prospective cohort study, we found that the incidence of MM in China was far lower than that in American and Europe.