The placebo response in clinical trials: more questions than answers

Meta-analyses and re-analyses of trial data have not been able to answer some of the essential questions that would allow prediction of placebo responses in clinical trials. We will confront these questions with current empirical evidence. The most important question asks whether the placebo response rates in the drug arm and in the placebo arm are equal. This 'additive model' is a general assumption in almost all placebo-controlled drug trials but has rarely been tested. Secondly, we would like to address whether the placebo response is a function of the likelihood of receiving drug/placebo. Evidence suggests that the number of study arms in a trial may determine the size of the placebo and the drug response. Thirdly, we ask what the size of the placebo response is in 'comparator' studies with a direct comparison of a (novel) drug against another drug. Meta-analytic and experimental evidence suggests that comparator studies may produce higher placebo response rates when compared with placebo-controlled trials. Finally, we address the placebo response rate outside the laboratory and outside of trials in clinical routine. This question poses a serious challenge whether the drug response in trials can be taken as evidence of drug effects in clinical routine.     

Gene therapy clinical trials worldwide to 2017: An update

To date, almost 2600 gene therapy clinical trials have been completed, are ongoing or have been approved worldwide. Our database brings together global information on gene therapy clinical activity from trial databases, official agency sources, published literature, conference presentations and posters kindly provided to us by individual investigators or trial sponsors. This review presents our analysis of clinical trials that, to the best of our knowledge, have been or are being performed worldwide. As of our November 2017 update, we have entries on 2597 trials undertaken in 38 countries. We have analysed the geographical distribution of trials, the disease indications (or other reasons) for trials, the proportions to which different vector types are used, and the genes that have been transferred. Details of the analyses presented, and our searchable database are available via The Journal of Gene Medicine Gene Therapy Clinical Trials Worldwide website at: http://www.wiley.co.uk/genmed/clinical . We also provide an overview of the progress being made in gene therapy clinical trials around the world, and discuss key trends since the previous review, namely the use of chimeric antigen receptor T cells for the treatment of cancer and advancements in genome editing technologies, which have the potential to transform the field moving forward.     

A human rights approach to low data reporting in clinical trials of psychiatric deep brain stimulation

The reporting of clinical trial data is necessary not only for doctors to determine treatment efficacy, but also to explore new questions without unnecessarily repeating trials, and to protect patients and the public from dangers when data are withheld. This issue is particularly salient in those trials involving invasive neurosurgical interventions, such as deep brain stimulation (DBS), for ‘treatment refractory’ psychiatric disorders. Using the federal database ClinicalTrials.gov, it was discovered that out of the completed or unknown‐status trials related to psychiatric DBS up to November 2018, only two had submitted results to ClinicalTrials.gov. These results suggest that, despite federal requirements to report clinical trial data, reporting on psychiatric DBS trials is problematically minimal. It is argued that a human rights approach to this problem establishes a legal and ethical foundation for the need to report clinical trial results in this area.     

Superoxide dismutase for therapeutic use: Clinical experience,dead ends and hopes

Summary The clinical trials performed with bovine superoxide dismutase (SOD) are reviewed. SOD, applied intraarticularly at a dosage of 2–16 mg, proved to be effective in osteoarthritis of the knee joint in three placebo-controlled and one steroid-controlled double-blind trials. Its efficacy in other inflammatory joint disorders is documented by uncontrolled trials. Similarly, some controlled and many open studies support the efficacy of locally injected SOD in periarticular inflammation. Systemic treatment of rheumatoid arthritis by SOD at the dosages indicated yielded disappointing results. Well documented, though open uncontrolled studies demonstrated beneficial effects of locally administered SOD in radiation cystitis, interstitial cystitis and Peyronie's disease. Tolerance is good, but allergic reactions at low incidence have to be anticipated. Human SOD derived from recombinant microorganisms is being developed to explore its therapeutic potential particularly in ischemia-reperfusion damage, adult respiratory distress or similar conditions.     

Gene therapy clinical trials worldwide to 2012 – an update

To date, over 1800 gene therapy clinical trials have been completed, are ongoing or have been approved worldwide. Our database brings together global information on gene therapy clinical trials from official agency sources, published literature, conference presentations and posters kindly provided to us by individual investigators or trial sponsors. This review presents our analysis of clinical trials that, to the best of our knowledge, have been or are being performed worldwide. As of our June 2012 update, we have entries on 1843 trials undertaken in 31 countries. We have analysed the geographical distribution of trials, the disease indications (or other reasons) for trials, the proportions to which different vector types are used, and which genes have been transferred. Details of the analyses presented, and our searchable database are available on The Journal of Gene Medicine Gene Therapy Clinical Trials Worldwide website at: http://www.wiley.co.uk/genmed/clinical . We also provide an overview of the progress being made in clinical trials of gene therapy approaches around the world and discuss the prospects for the future. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian design and analysis of active control clinical trials

We consider the design and analysis of active control clinical trials, i.e., clinical trials comparing an experimental treatment E to a control treatment C considered to be effective. Direct comparison of E to placebo P, or no treatment, is sometimes ethically unacceptable. Much discussion of the design and analysis of such clinical trials has focused on whether the comparison of E to C should be based on a test of the null hypothesis of equivalence, on a test of a nonnull hypothesis that the difference is of some minimally medically important size delta, or on one or two-sided confidence intervals. These approaches are essentially the same for study planning. They all suffer from arbitrariness in specifying the size of the difference delta that must be excluded. We propose an alternative Bayesian approach to the design and analysis of active control trials. We derive the posterior probability that E is superior to P or that E is at least k% as good as C and that C is more effective than P. We also derive approximations for use with logistic and proportional hazard models. Selection of prior distributions is discussed, and results are illustrated using data from an active control trial of a drug for the treatment of unstable angina.     

Stopping Rules for Clinical Trials Implicitly Incorporating Safety Information

Clinical trials research is mainly conducted for the purpose of evaluating the relative efficacy of two or more treatments. However, a positive response due to treatment is not sufficient to put forward a new product because one must also demonstrate safety. In such cases, clinical trials which show a positive effect would need to accrue enough patients to also demonstrate that the new treatment is safe. It is our purpose to show how the efficacy and safety problems can be combined to yield a more practical clinical trial design. In this paper we propose an asymmetric stopping rule which allows the experimenter to terminate a clinical trial early for a sufficiently negative result and to continue to a specified number of patients otherwise. As it turns out, a few interim tests will have negligible effects on the overall significance level.     

Older cancer patients in cancer clinical trials are underrepresented. Systematic literature review of almost 5000 meta- and pooled analyses of phase III randomized trials of survival from breast,prostate and lung cancer

BackgroundOlder people represent increasing proportions of the population with cancer. To understand the representivity of cancer treatments in older people, we performed a systematic literature review using PRISMA guidelines of the age distribution of clinical trial participants for three leading cancer types, namely breast, prostate, and lung.MethodsWe used PubMed to identify articles detailing meta or pooled-analyses of phase III, randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of survival for breast, prostate and lung cancer, published ≤5 years from 2016. We compared the age distribution of participants to that of these cancers for “More developed regions”.Results4993 potential papers were identified, but only three papers on breast cancer, three on lung cancer, and none on prostate cancer presented the age distribution of their participants. Except for one paper of breast cancer, participants ≥70 years in all other papers were underrepresented.ConclusionsWe recommend the age distribution of patients be clearly reported in all clinical trials, as per guidelines. Clinical trials ought to be more representative of the populations most affected by the disease for which treatments are being tested. This should lead to better knowledge of effectiveness of treatments and better translation of trial results to optimal care of older cancer patients.     

P-value adjustment in sequential clinical trials

Many randomized clinical trials utilize a group sequential monitoring procedure for assessing treatment efficacy during the course of the trial. For a group sequential trial in which the null hypothesis is ultimately rejected, the nominal p-value generally overstates the statistical significance of the result and some adjustment is required. Several orderings of the sample space have been proposed for performing this adjustment, each with unique operating characteristics. In this article, we compare four proposed methods with respect to the degree to which each captures the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis implied by the data. We conclude that the ordering of the sample space induced by the observed z-score has the most desirable operating characteristics.     

Accounting for Behavior in Treatment Effects: New Applications for Blind Trials

The double-blind randomized controlled trial (DBRCT) is the gold standard of medical research. We show that DBRCTs fail to fully account for the efficacy of treatment if there are interactions between treatment and behavior, for example, if a treatment is more effective when patients change their exercise or diet. Since behavioral or placebo effects depend on patients’ beliefs that they are receiving treatment, clinical trials with a single probability of treatment are poorly suited to estimate the additional treatment benefit that arises from such interactions. Here, we propose methods to identify interaction effects, and use those methods in a meta-analysis of data from blinded anti-depressant trials in which participant-level data was available. Out of six eligible studies, which included three for the selective serotonin re-uptake inhibitor paroxetine, and three for the tricyclic imipramine, three studies had a high (>65%) probability of treatment. We found strong evidence that treatment probability affected the behavior of trial participants, specifically the decision to drop out of a trial. In the case of paroxetine, but not imipramine, there was an interaction between treatment and behavioral changes that enhanced the effectiveness of the drug. These data show that standard blind trials can fail to account for the full value added when there are interactions between a treatment and behavior. We therefore suggest that a new trial design, two-by-two blind trials, will better account for treatment efficacy when interaction effects may be important.     

Analyzing time-to-event data in a clinical trial when an unknown proportion of subjects has experienced the event at entry

In some clinical trials, where the outcome is the time until development of a silent event, an unknown proportion of subjects who have already experienced the event will be unknowingly enrolled due to the imperfect nature of the diagnostic tests used to screen potential subjects. For example, commonly used diagnostic tests for evaluating HIV infection status in infants, such as DNA PCR and HIV Culture, have low sensitivity when given soon after infection. This can lead to the inclusion of an unknown proportion of HIV-infected infants into clinical trials aimed at the prevention of transmission from HIV-positive mothers to their infants through breastfeeding. The infection status of infants at the end of the trial, when they are more than a year of age, can be determined with certainty. For those infants found to be infected with HIV at the end of the trial, it cannot be determined whether this occurred during the study or whether they were already infected when they were enrolled. In these settings, estimates of the cumulative risk of the event by the end of the study will overestimate the true probability of event during the study period and hypothesis tests comparing two or more intervention strategies can also be biased. We present inference methods for the distribution of time until the event of interest in these settings, and investigate issues in the design of such trials when there is a choice of using both imperfect and perfect diagnostic tests.     

A comparison of methods for constructing confidence intervals after phase II/III clinical trials

Recently, in order to accelerate drug development, trials that use adaptive seamless designs such as phase II/III clinical trials have been proposed. Phase II/III clinical trials combine traditional phases II and III into a single trial that is conducted in two stages. Using stage 1 data, an interim analysis is performed to answer phase II objectives and after collection of stage 2 data, a final confirmatory analysis is performed to answer phase III objectives. In this paper we consider phase II/III clinical trials in which, at stage 1, several experimental treatments are compared to a control and the apparently most effective experimental treatment is selected to continue to stage 2. Although these trials are attractive because the confirmatory analysis includes phase II data from stage 1, the inference methods used for trials that compare a single experimental treatment to a control and do not have an interim analysis are no longer appropriate. Several methods for analysing phase II/III clinical trials have been developed. These methods are recent and so there is little literature on extensive comparisons of their characteristics. In this paper we review and compare the various methods available for constructing confidence intervals after phase II/III clinical trials.     

Discontinuation rates in clinical trials in musculoskeletal pain: meta-analysis from etoricoxib clinical trial reports

Introduction

Patient adherence to therapy in clinical practice is often low, and the difference between efficacy measured in clinical trials and effectiveness in clinical practice is probably a function of discontinuation of therapy because of lack of efficacy or because of unmanageable or intolerable adverse events. Discontinuation is frequently measured in clinical trials but is not usually described in detail in published reports, often because of limitations in the size of publications. By contrast, company clinical trial reports include much more detail.

Methods

We examined company clinical trial reports of trials involving etoricoxib in four musculoskeletal conditions: osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, chronic low back pain and ankylosing spondylitis. Information was available from 18 randomized trials (10,143 patients) lasting 4 to 12 weeks (one 4 weeks, three 6 weeks, one 8 weeks and seven 12 weeks) and from three trials with a mean duration of about 80 weeks (34,695 patients). These clinical trial reports contain over 73,000 pages of information.

Results

Over 12 weeks, lack of efficacy and adverse event discontinuations were similar between osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis and back pain, with lack of efficacy discontinuation rates some three times higher than for adverse events. All-cause and lack of efficacy discontinuations were lower with etoricoxib (all doses combined) and traditional nonselective nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) than with placebo, although NSAIDs produced higher rates of clinical adverse events and gastrointestinal discontinuations than did placebo. Etoricoxib had fewer discontinuations than NSAIDs for lack of efficacy, clinical adverse events, and laboratory and gastrointestinal adverse events, but with more discontinuations because of hypertension and oedema. Comparison with two similar meta-analyses of other cyclo-oxygenase-2 selective inhibitors (more than 80,000 patients in total) revealed consistency between analyses.

Conclusion

Examining discontinuation data from clinical trials, even when the numbers of patients are very large, does not necessarily predict what will happen in the real world, where clinical effectiveness may differ from clinical efficacy assessed in trials. Data from these analyses appears to agree with findings from real world practice.     

Joint monitoring and prediction of accrual and event times in clinical trials

In many clinical trials, the primary endpoint is time to an event of interest, for example, time to cardiac attack or tumor progression, and the statistical power of these trials is primarily driven by the number of events observed during the trials. In such trials, the number of events observed is impacted not only by the number of subjects enrolled but also by other factors including the event rate and the follow‐up duration. Consequently, it is important for investigators to be able to monitor and predict accurately patient accrual and event times so as to predict the times of interim and final analyses and enable efficient allocation of research resources, which have long been recognized as important aspects of trial design and conduct. The existing methods for prediction of event times all assume that patient accrual follows a Poisson process with a constant Poisson rate over time; however, it is fairly common in real‐life clinical trials that the Poisson rate changes over time. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian joint modeling approach for monitoring and prediction of accrual and event times in clinical trials. We employ a nonhomogeneous Poisson process to model patient accrual and a parametric or nonparametric model for the event and loss to follow‐up processes. Compared to existing methods, our proposed methods are more flexible and robust in that we model accrual and event/loss‐to‐follow‐up times jointly and allow the underlying accrual rates to change over time. We evaluate the performance of the proposed methods through simulation studies and illustrate the methods using data from a real oncology trial.     

Bayesian adaptive trial design for a newly validated surrogate endpoint

The evaluation of surrogate endpoints for primary use in future clinical trials is an increasingly important research area, due to demands for more efficient trials coupled with recent regulatory acceptance of some surrogates as 'valid.' However, little consideration has been given to how a trial that utilizes a newly validated surrogate endpoint as its primary endpoint might be appropriately designed. We propose a novel Bayesian adaptive trial design that allows the new surrogate endpoint to play a dominant role in assessing the effect of an intervention, while remaining realistically cautious about its use. By incorporating multitrial historical information on the validated relationship between the surrogate and clinical endpoints, then subsequently evaluating accumulating data against this relationship as the new trial progresses, we adaptively guard against an erroneous assessment of treatment based upon a truly invalid surrogate. When the joint outcomes in the new trial seem plausible given similar historical trials, we proceed with the surrogate endpoint as the primary endpoint, and do so adaptively-perhaps stopping the trial for early success or inferiority of the experimental treatment, or for futility. Otherwise, we discard the surrogate and switch adaptive determinations to the original primary endpoint. We use simulation to test the operating characteristics of this new design compared to a standard O'Brien-Fleming approach, as well as the ability of our design to discriminate trustworthy from untrustworthy surrogates in hypothetical future trials. Furthermore, we investigate possible benefits using patient-level data from 18 adjuvant therapy trials in colon cancer, where disease-free survival is considered a newly validated surrogate endpoint for overall survival.     

Multicenter randomized trial of cell therapy in cardiopathies – MiHeart Study

Background

Cardiovascular diseases are the major cause of death in the world. Current treatments have not been able to reverse this scenario, creating the need for the development of new therapies. Cell therapies have emerged as an alternative for cardiac diseases of distinct causes in experimental animal studies and more recently in clinical trials.

Method/Design

We have designed clinical trials to test for the efficacy of autologous bone marrow derived mononuclear cell therapies in four different cardiopathies: acute and chronic ischemic heart disease, and Chagasic and dilated cardiomyopathy. All trials are multicenter, randomized, double-blind and placebo controlled. In each trial 300 patients will be enrolled and receive optimized therapy for their specific condition. Additionally, half of the patients will receive the autologous bone marrow cells while the other half will receive placebo (saline with 5% autologous serum). For each trial there are specific inclusion and exclusion criteria and the method for cell delivery is intramyocardial for the chronic ischemic heart disease and intracoronary for all others. Primary endpoint for all studies will be the difference in ejection fraction (determined by Simpson's rule) six and twelve months after intervention in relation to the basal ejection fraction. The main hypothesis of this study is that the patients who receive the autologous bone-marrow stem cell implant will have after a 6 month follow-up a mean increase of 5% in absolute left ventricular ejection fraction in comparison with the control group.

Discussion

Many phase I clinical trials using cell therapy for cardiac diseases have already been performed. The few randomized studies have yielded conflicting results, rendering necessary larger well controlled trials to test for efficacy of cell therapies in cardiopathies. The trials registration numbers at the NIH registry are the following: Chagasic cardiomyopathy (NCT00349271), dilated cardiomyopathy (NCT00333827), acute myocardial infarction (NCT00350766) and Chronic Ischemic Heart Disease (NCT00362388).     

A parallel phase I/II clinical trial design for combination therapies

The use of multiple drugs in a single clinical trial or as a therapeutic strategy has become common, particularly in the treatment of cancer. Because traditional trials are designed to evaluate one agent at a time, the evaluation of therapies in combination requires specialized trial designs. In place of the traditional separate phase I and II trials, we propose using a parallel phase I/II clinical trial to evaluate simultaneously the safety and efficacy of combination dose levels, and select the optimal combination dose. The trial is started with an initial period of dose escalation, then patients are randomly assigned to admissible dose levels. These dose levels are compared with each other. Bayesian posterior probabilities are used in the randomization to adaptively assign more patients to doses with higher efficacy levels. Combination doses with lower efficacy are temporarily closed and those with intolerable toxicity are eliminated from the trial. The trial is stopped if the posterior probability for safety, efficacy, or futility crosses a prespecified boundary. For illustration, we apply the design to a combination chemotherapy trial for leukemia. We use simulation studies to assess the operating characteristics of the parallel phase I/II trial design, and compare it to a conventional design for a standard phase I and phase II trial. The simulations show that the proposed design saves sample size, has better power, and efficiently assigns more patients to doses with higher efficacy levels.     

Effects of ribose as an ergogenic aid

The amount of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) stored in the muscle available for immediate use is limited, and once used, must be resynthesized in the muscle. Ribose, a naturally occurring pentose sugar, helps resynthesize ATP for use in muscles. There have been claims that ribose supplements increase ATP levels and improve performance. Other studies have provided mixed results on the effectiveness of ribose as an ergogenic aid at high doses. None of these studies have compared the impact of the recommended dose of ribose on athletes and nonathletes under exercise conditions that are most conducive for effectiveness. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of ribose as an ergogenic aid at the dose recommended for supplements currently on the market during an exercise trial to maximize its efficacy. Male subjects (n = 11) performed 2 trials 1 week apart. Each trial consisted of three 30-second Wingate tests with a 2-minute recovery between each test. Trials were counterbalanced, with 1 trial being performed with 625 mg of ribose and the other with a placebo. Peak power, mean power, and percent decrease in power were recorded during each Wingate test. Repeated-measures analysis of variance (p > 0.05) found no significant differences between ribose and placebo. These results suggest that ribose had no effect on performance when taken orally, at the dose suggested by the distributor.