Contrasting patterns in the small-scale heterogeneity of human helminth infections in urban and rural environments in Brazil

Marked heterogeneity exists in the patterns of parasitic infection between individuals, households and communities. Analysis of parasite distributions within populations is complicated by the fact that parasite distributions are highly aggregated and few studies have explicitly incorporated this distribution when investigating small-scale spatial heterogeneities. This study aimed to quantify the small-scale (within- and between-household) heterogeneity of helminth infection in an area of Minas Gerais State, Brazil, with rural and urban sectors. Parasitological data from a cross-sectional survey of 1,249 individuals aged 0-86 years from 242 households were analysed. Within-household clustering of infection was assessed using random effect logistic regression models and between-household spatial heterogeneity was assessed using a Bayesian negative binomial spatial model. The overall prevalence of hookworm (Necator americanus) was 66.9%, the prevalence of Schistosoma mansoni was 44.9% and the prevalence of Ascaris lumbricoides was 48.8%. Statistical analysis indicated significant (within) household and (between household) spatial clustering of hookworm in both rural and urban areas and of S. mansoni in rural areas. There was no evidence of either household or spatial clustering of S. mansoni in urban areas. The spatial correlation of S. mansoni was estimated to reduce by half over a distance of 700 m in the rural area. Rural hookworm had a much smaller half-distance (28 m) and urban hookworm showed an even smaller half-distance (12 m). We suggest that such species-specific differences in patterns of infection by environment are primarily due to variation in exposure and parasite life cycle, although host genetic factors cannot be ruled out.     

Effects of heterogeneous and clustered contact patterns on infectious disease dynamics

The spread of infectious diseases fundamentally depends on the pattern of contacts between individuals. Although studies of contact networks have shown that heterogeneity in the number of contacts and the duration of contacts can have far-reaching epidemiological consequences, models often assume that contacts are chosen at random and thereby ignore the sociological, temporal and/or spatial clustering of contacts. Here we investigate the simultaneous effects of heterogeneous and clustered contact patterns on epidemic dynamics. To model population structure, we generalize the configuration model which has a tunable degree distribution (number of contacts per node) and level of clustering (number of three cliques). To model epidemic dynamics for this class of random graph, we derive a tractable, low-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations that accounts for the effects of network structure on the course of the epidemic. We find that the interaction between clustering and the degree distribution is complex. Clustering always slows an epidemic, but simultaneously increasing clustering and the variance of the degree distribution can increase final epidemic size. We also show that bond percolation-based approximations can be highly biased if one incorrectly assumes that infectious periods are homogeneous, and the magnitude of this bias increases with the amount of clustering in the network. We apply this approach to model the high clustering of contacts within households, using contact parameters estimated from survey data of social interactions, and we identify conditions under which network models that do not account for household structure will be biased.     

Interaction of TaqI polymorphism at exon 9 of the vitamin D receptor gene with the negative lepromin response may favor the occurrence of leprosy

Controversies over the vitamin D receptor (VDR) acting as a susceptibility factor in Mycobacterium sp. infections may be the result of incorrect population stratification. The risk of leprosy occurrence conditioned by VDR polymorphism was investigated by stratifying the population of a highly endemic Brazilian region into negative and positive Mitsuda responses. Leprosy patients (102) and a group of healthy nonconsanguineous household contacts (68) were genotyped for the VDR TaqI polymorphism (T/t). TT and Tt genotypes were not considered to be risk factors as their odds ratios (OR) were not different from those presented by the negative Mitsuda response individuals. The combination of the tt genotype and the negative Mitsuda test provided an occurrence rate 13 times higher in leprosy patients than in controls with positive Mitsuda responses. This suggests that there is a higher risk of leprosy development when individuals carry this unfavorable combination, and demonstrates a possible synergistic role of these two variables in leprosy susceptibility via effects on cellular immunity.     

Spatial Analysis Spotlighting Early Childhood Leprosy Transmission in a Hyperendemic Municipality of the Brazilian Amazon Region

Background

More than 200,000 new cases of leprosy were reported by 105 countries in 2011. The disease is a public health problem in Brazil, particularly within high-burden pockets in the Amazon region where leprosy is hyperendemic among children.

Methodology

We applied geographic information systems and spatial analysis to determine the spatio-temporal pattern of leprosy cases in a hyperendemic municipality of the Brazilian Amazon region (Castanhal). Moreover, we performed active surveillance to collect clinical, epidemiological and serological data of the household contacts of people affected by leprosy and school children in the general population. The occurrence of subclinical infection and overt disease among the evaluated individuals was correlated with the spatio-temporal pattern of leprosy.

Principal Findings

The pattern of leprosy cases showed significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity (p<0.01). Considering 499 mapped cases, we found spatial clusters of high and low detection rates and spatial autocorrelation of individual cases at fine spatio-temporal scales. The relative risk of contracting leprosy in one specific cluster with a high detection rate is almost four times the risk in the areas of low detection rate (RR = 3.86; 95% CI = 2.26–6.59; p<0.0001). Eight new cases were detected among 302 evaluated household contacts: two living in areas of clusters of high detection rate and six in hyperendemic census tracts. Of 188 examined students, 134 (71.3%) lived in hyperendemic areas, 120 (63.8%) were dwelling less than 100 meters of at least one reported leprosy case, 125 (66.5%) showed immunological evidence (positive anti-PGL-I IgM titer) of subclinical infection, and 9 (4.8%) were diagnosed with leprosy (8 within 200 meters of a case living in the same area).

Conclusions/Significance

Spatial analysis provided a better understanding of the high rate of early childhood leprosy transmission in this region. These findings can be applied to guide leprosy control programs to target intervention to high risk areas.     

Cost-effectiveness of a chemoprophylactic intervention with single dose rifampicin in contacts of new leprosy patients

Background

With 249,007 new leprosy patients detected globally in 2008, it remains necessary to develop new and effective interventions to interrupt the transmission of M. leprae. We assessed the economic benefits of single dose rifampicin (SDR) for contacts as chemoprophylactic intervention in the control of leprosy.

Methods

We conducted a single centre, double blind, cluster randomised, placebo controlled trial in northwest Bangladesh between 2002 and 2007, including 21,711 close contacts of 1,037 patients with newly diagnosed leprosy. We gave a single dose of rifampicin or placebo to close contacts, with follow-up for four years. The main outcome measure was the development of clinical leprosy. We assessed the cost effectiveness by calculating the incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) between the standard multidrug therapy (MDT) program with the additional chemoprophylaxis intervention versus the standard MDT program only. The ICER was expressed in US dollars per prevented leprosy case.

Findings

Chemoprophylaxis with SDR for preventing leprosy among contacts of leprosy patients is cost-effective at all contact levels and thereby a cost-effective prevention strategy. In total, $6,009 incremental cost was invested and 38 incremental leprosy cases were prevented, resulting in an ICER of $158 per one additional prevented leprosy case. It was the most cost-effective in neighbours of neighbours and social contacts (ICER $214), slightly less cost-effective in next door neighbours (ICER $497) and least cost-effective among household contacts (ICER $856).

Conclusion

Chemoprophylaxis with single dose rifampicin given to contacts of newly diagnosed leprosy patients is a cost-effective intervention strategy. Implementation studies are necessary to establish whether this intervention is acceptable and feasible in other leprosy endemic areas of the world.     

Leprosy reactions: the effect of gender and household contacts

Various host-related factors have been reported as relevant risk factors for leprosy reactions. To support a new hypothesis that an antigenic load in local tissues that is sufficient to trigger the immune response may come from an external supply of Mycobacterium leprae organisms, the prevalence of reactional leprosy was assessed against the number of household contacts. The number of contacts was ascertained at diagnosis in leprosy patients coming from an endemic area of Brazil. The prevalence of reactions (patients with reactions/total patients) was fitted by binomial regression and the risk difference (RD) was estimated with a semi-robust estimation of variance as a measure of effect. Five regression models were fitted. Model 1 included only the main exposure variable "number of household contacts"; model 2 included all four explanatory variables ("contacts", "fertile age", "number of skin lesions" and "bacillary index") that were found to be associated with the outcome upon univariate analysis; models 3-5 contained various combinations of three predictors. Male and female patients were analyzed separately. In females, household contacts were a significant predictor for leprosy reactions in model 1 [crude RD = 0.06; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.01; 0.12] and model 5 (RD = 0.05; CI = 0.02; 0.09), which included contacts, bacillary index and skin lesions as predictors. Other models were unsatisfactory because the joint presence of fertile age and bacillary index was a likely source of multicollinearity. No significant results were obtained for males. The likely interpretation of our findings might suggest that in female patients, leprosy reactions may be triggered by an external spreading of M. leprae by healthy carrier family members. The small number of observations is an obvious limitation of our study which requires larger confirmatory studies.     

IgM immunoglobulins reacting with the phenolic glycolipid-1 antigen from Mycobacterium leprae in sera of leprosy patients and their contacts

For the first time in Brazil it was investigated the occurrence of IgM anti-PGL-1 in the sera of household contacts of leprosy patients using the ELISA methodology. The sera of the multibacillary patients showed significantly more immuno-reactivity than from the paucibacillary patients. It was observed a high subclinical infection incidence among household contacts (19.4%). The percentage of leprosy development was 5% (1/21) among the seropositive contact group. This finding suggests that serology could be useful as prognostic test, but for better definition is necessary to test a population from endemic area for long period time.     

Early detection of leprosy by examination of household contacts, determination of serum anti-PGL-1 antibodies and consanguinity

A cross-sectional clinical trial in which the serum anti-phenolic glycolipid (anti-PGL-1) antibodies were analysed in household contacts (HHC) of patients with leprosy as an adjunct early leprosy diagnostic marker was conducted. The families of 83 patients underwent clinical examination and serum anti-PGL1 measurement using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Of 320 HHC, 98 were contacts of lepromatous leprosy (LL), 80 were contacts of borderline lepromatous (BL), 28 were contacts of borderline (BB) leprosy, 54 were contacts of borderline tuberculoid (BT), 40 were contacts of tuberculoid (TT) and 20 were contacts of indeterminate (I) leprosy. Consanguinity with the patients was determined for 232 (72.5%) HHC. Of those 232 contacts, 183 had linear consanguinity. Forty-nine HHC had collateral consanguinity. Fifty-eight contacts (18.1%) tested positive for anti-PGL1 antibodies. The number of seropositive contacts based on the clinical forms of the index case was 17 (29.3%) for LL, 15 (25.9%) for BL, one (1.7%) for BB, 14 (24.1%) for BT, three (5.2%) for TT and eight (13.7%) for I. At the one year follow-up, two (3.4%) of these seropositive contacts had developed BT leprosy. The results of the present study indicate that the serum anti-PGL-1 IgM antibody may be useful for evaluating antigen exposure and as a tool for an early leprosy diagnosis in HHC.     

Immunoglobulin G response against 10-kDa and 65-kDa heat-shock proteins in leprosy patients and their household contacts

Abstract We measured antibody responses to recombinant Mycobacterium leprae 65-kDa (rML65) and 10-kDa (rML10) by indirect ELISA in sera from leprosy patients, household contacts and healthy controls in a leprosy-endemic area in the north east of Argentina. Serum antibody levels to those antigens were correlated with IgM anti-phenolic glycolipid I (PGL-I) levels, with bacterial index and the period of time under chemotherapy. Bacterial index positive (BI⁺) patients showed higher mean values when compared with BI negatives (BI⁻). Among lepromatous patients a positive correlation was observed between IgG antibody responses to both recombinant antigens and IgM antibody response to PGL-I. Anti-rML10 test detected a higher percentage of positive/total than anti-rML65 in all leprosy groups and healthy contacts. Bacterial load, leprosy clinical form and the time under chemotherapy were factors which could influence levels of the antibody response. The contribution of these antibody studies for a precise and early diagnosis in leprosy is discussed.     

Segregation and linkage analyses of 72 leprosy pedigrees

Data on 72 families with multiple cases of leprosy were analyzed for a susceptibility gene linked to the HLA loci. We conducted segregation analysis with the program POINTER and identity of HLA types by descent analysis to determine the most likely mode of inheritance. We then conducted linkage analysis with the program LINKAS, first assuming linkage equilibrium and then allowing for linkage disequilibrium and etiological heterogeneity. Segregation results suggest a recessive mode of inheritance, especially for the tuberculoid forms of leprosy. The linkage results, limited to tuberculoid forms and assuming a recessive model, suggest a hypothesis of loose linkage with no unlinked locus. When an additive model is assumed, the best fit is obtained with a hypothesis of complete linkage (theta = 0.0) with heterogeneity. We currently favor the additive model as the more plausible one.     

Household Transmission of Rotavirus in a Community with Rotavirus Vaccination in Quininde,Ecuador

Background

We studied the transmission of rotavirus infection in households in peri-urban Ecuador in the vaccination era.

Methods

Stool samples were collected from household contacts of child rotavirus cases, diarrhea controls and healthy controls following presentation of the index child to health facilities. Rotavirus infection status of contacts was determined by RT-qPCR. We examined factors associated with transmissibility (index-case characteristics) and susceptibility (household-contact characteristics).

Results

Amongst cases, diarrhea controls and healthy control household contacts, infection attack rates (iAR) were 55%, 8% and 2%, (n = 137, 130, 137) respectively. iARs were higher from index cases with vomiting, and amongst siblings. Disease ARs were higher when the index child was <18 months and had vomiting, with household contact <10 years and those sharing a room with the index case being more susceptible. We found no evidence of asymptomatic infections leading to disease transmission.

Conclusion

Transmission rates of rotavirus are high in households with an infected child, while background infections are rare. We have identified factors associated with transmission (vomiting/young age of index case) and susceptibility (young age/sharing a room/being a sibling of the index case). Vaccination may lead to indirect benefits by averting episodes or reducing symptoms in vaccinees.     

PCR-Based Techniques for Leprosy Diagnosis: From the Laboratory to the Clinic

In leprosy, classic diagnostic tools based on bacillary counts and histopathology have been facing hurdles, especially in distinguishing latent infection from active disease and diagnosing paucibacillary clinical forms. Serological tests and IFN-gamma releasing assays (IGRA) that employ humoral and cellular immune parameters, respectively, are also being used, but recent results indicate that quantitative PCR (qPCR) is a key technique due to its higher sensitivity and specificity. In fact, advances concerning the structure and function of the Mycobacterium leprae genome led to the development of specific PCR-based gene amplification assays for leprosy diagnosis and monitoring of household contacts. Also, based on the validation of point-of-care technologies for M. tuberculosis DNA detection, it is clear that the same advantages of rapid DNA detection could be observed in respect to leprosy. So far, PCR has proven useful in the determination of transmission routes, M. leprae viability, and drug resistance in leprosy. However, PCR has been ascertained to be especially valuable in diagnosing difficult cases like pure neural leprosy (PNL), paucibacillary (PB), and patients with atypical clinical presentation and histopathological features compatible with leprosy. Also, the detection of M. leprae DNA in different samples of the household contacts of leprosy patients is very promising. Although a positive PCR result is not sufficient to establish a causal relationship with disease outcome, quantitation provided by qPCR is clearly capable of indicating increased risk of developing the disease and could alert clinicians to follow these contacts more closely or even define rules for chemoprophylaxis.     

Evidence of Hepatitis A Virus Person-to-Person Transmission in Household Outbreaks

The person-to-person transmission of the hepatitis A virus primarily occurs in enclosed spaces, particularly in the presence of inadequate hygiene conditions and a high proportion of susceptible individuals. Thus, intimate family contact stands out as a risk factor for HAV infection dissemination. The present study aimed to evaluate the occurrence of household HAV transmission. Blood samples were collected from patients with hepatitis A (index cases) and their family members (contacts) that were referred to an ambulatory care clinic specializing in viral hepatitis. A total of 97 samples were collected from 30 families with a confirmed hepatitis A case (index case). Serological and molecular techniques for the diagnosis of hepatitis A were conducted on all samples. HAV infection (anti-HAV IgM + and/or HAV RNA +) was detected in 34.3% (23/67) of the contacts; 34.3% (23/67) of the contacts were immune to HAV, and 31.4% (21/67) were susceptible. In the household contacts, HAV immunity was significantly associated with older age; susceptibility to infection and HAV infection were associated with younger age. Household outbreaks were detected in 16/30 families studied. Co-circulation of subgenotypes IA and IB was found in the household outbreaks, and person-to-person transmission was evidenced in six of the household outbreaks, with 100% homology between the index case and contact strains. The results demonstrated the relevance of HAV household transmission, reaffirming the need for hepatitis A vaccine administration in susceptible contacts and effective infection control procedures to prevent the extension of household outbreaks.     

Community Management of Endemic Scabies in Remote Aboriginal Communities of Northern Australia: Low Treatment Uptake and High Ongoing Acquisition

Background

Scabies and skin infections are endemic in many Australian Aboriginal communities. There is limited evidence for effective models of scabies treatment in high prevalence settings. We aimed to assess the level of treatment uptake amongst clinically diagnosed scabies cases and amongst their household contacts. In addition, we aimed to determine the likelihood of scabies acquisition within these households over the 4 weeks following treatment provision.

Methods and Findings

We conducted an observational study of households in two scabies-endemic Aboriginal communities in northern Australia in which a community-based skin health program was operating. Permethrin treatment was provided for all householders upon identification of scabies within a household during home visit. Households were visited the following day to assess treatment uptake and at 2 and 4 weeks to assess scabies acquisition among susceptible individuals. All 40 households in which a child with scabies was identified agreed to participate in the study. Very low levels of treatment uptake were reported among household contacts of these children (193/440, 44%). Household contacts who themselves had scabies were more likely to use the treatment than those contacts who did not have scabies (OR 2.4, 95%CI 1.1, 5.4), whilst males (OR 0.6, 95%CI 0.42, 0.95) and individuals from high-scabies-burden households (OR 0.2, 95%CI 0.08, 0.77) were less likely to use the treatment. Among 185 susceptible individuals, there were 17 confirmed or probable new diagnoses of scabies recorded in the subsequent 4 weeks (9.2%). The odds of remaining scabies-free was almost 6 times greater among individuals belonging to a household where all people reported treatment uptake (OR 5.9, 95%CI 1.3, 27.2, p = 0.02).

Conclusion

There is an urgent need for a more practical and feasible treatment for community management of endemic scabies. The effectiveness and sustainability of the current scabies program was compromised by poor treatment uptake by household contacts of infested children and high ongoing disease transmission.     

Leprosy among patient contacts: a multilevel study of risk factors

Background

This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors associated with developing leprosy among the contacts of newly-diagnosed leprosy patients.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A total of 6,158 contacts and 1,201 leprosy patients of the cohort who were diagnosed and treated at the Leprosy Laboratory of Fiocruz from 1987 to 2007 were included. The contact variables analyzed were sex; age; educational and income levels; blood relationship, if any, to the index case; household or non-household relationship; length of time of close association with the index case; receipt of bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BGG) vaccine and presence of BCG scar. Index cases variables included sex, age, educational level, family size, bacillary load, and disability grade. Multilevel logistic regression with random intercept was applied. Among the co-prevalent cases, the leprosy-related variables that remained associated with leprosy included type of household contact, [odds ratio (OR) = 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.73] and consanguinity with the index case, (OR = 1.89, 95% CI: 1.42–2.51). With respect to the index case variables, the factors associated with leprosy among contacts included up to 4 years of schooling and 4 to 10 years of schooling (OR = 2.72, 95% CI: 1.54–4.79 and 2.40, 95% CI: 1.30–4.42, respectively) and bacillary load, which increased the chance of leprosy among multibacillary contacts for those with a bacillary index of one to three and greater than three (OR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.19–2.17 and OR: 4.07–95% CI: 2.73, 6.09), respectively. Among incident cases, household exposure was associated with leprosy (OR = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.29–2.98), compared with non-household exposure. Among the index case risk factors, an elevated bacillary load was the only variable associated with leprosy in the contacts.

Conclusions/Significance

Biological and social factors appear to be associated with leprosy among co-prevalent cases, whereas the factors related to the infectious load and proximity with the index case were associated with leprosy that appeared in the incident cases during follow-up.     

Subclinical Infection in Leprosy

Lymphocyte transformation has been used to study the immune response to Mycobacterium leprae among contacts and non-contacts of leprosy patients. Of 26 subjects living in a leprosy endemic area for less than two months none responded to M. leprae; 24% of subjects who had lived in an endemic area for more than a year gave a positive response to M. leprae; more than 50% of individuals with occupational contact of leprosy for more than a year responded; and about 50% of contacts of tuberculoid and treated lepromatous patients responded to M. leprae, while only 22% (4/18) of contacts of lepromatous patients treated for less than six months responded.It seems that leprosy is more highly infectious than is indicated by the prevalence of the disease and that a subclinical infection commonly follows exposure to M. leprae. The relatively low response found in contacts of active lepromatous patients suggests that in these contacts “superexposure” to M. leprae can bring about a decrease in host resistance.     

Survey to identify Mycobacterium leprae-infected household contacts of patients from prevalent regions of leprosy in Colombia

Leprosy in Colombia is in the post-elimination phase; nevertheless, there are regions of this country where the incidence is still around 3-4/100,000. Early detection of leprosy patients is a priority for achieving control and elimination of leprosy; however, the clinical exam is not very sensitive and thus, the majority of patients are diagnosed only when they demonstrate lesions, and damage to the nerves and skin has already occurred. The goal of the present study was to identify Mycobacterium leprae infection and immune responses in household contacts (HHC) of leprosy patients from three prevalent regions of Colombia. Clinical examination, the Mitsuda test, evaluation of IgM anti-PGL-I in the serum, the bacillar index (BI), and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) from nasal swabs (NS) were performed for 402 HHC of 104 leprosy patients during a cross-sectional survey. Positive titers for IgM anti-PGL1 were found for 54 HHC, and PCR-positive NS for 22. The Mitsuda reaction was negative for 38 HHC, although three were positive for IgM anti-PGL-1 titers. The data document that leprosy transmission among HHC is still occurring in a non-endemic country.     

Identification of specific proteins and peptides in Mycobacterium leprae suitable for the selective diagnosis of leprosy

Diagnosis of leprosy is a major obstacle to disease control and has been compromised in the past due to the lack of specific reagents. We have used comparative genome analysis to identify genes that are specific to Mycobacterium leprae and tested both recombinant proteins and synthetic peptides from a subset of these for immunological reactivity. Four unique recombinant proteins (ML0008, ML0126, ML1057, and ML2567) and a panel of 58 peptides (15 and 9 mer) were tested for IFN-gamma responses in PBMC from leprosy patients and contacts, tuberculosis patients, and endemic and nonendemic controls. The responses to the four recombinant proteins gave higher levels of IFN-gamma production, but less specificity, than the peptides. Thirty-five peptides showed IFN-gamma responses only in the paucibacillary leprosy and household contact groups, with no responses in the tuberculosis or endemic control groups. High frequencies of IFN-gamma-producing CD4+ and CD8+ T cells specific for the 15- and 9-mer peptides were observed in the blood of a paucibacillary leprosy patient. 9-mer peptides preferentially activated CD8+ T cells, while the 15-mer peptides were efficient in inducing responses in both the CD4+ and CD8+ T cell subsets. Four of the six 9-mer peptides tested showed promising specificity, indicating that CD8+ T cell epitopes may also have diagnostic potential. Those peptides that provide specific responses in leprosy patients from an endemic setting could potentially be developed into a rapid diagnostic test for the early detection of M. leprae infection and epidemiological surveys of the incidence of leprosy, of which little is known.     

Micro-scale Spatial Clustering of Cholera Risk Factors in Urban Bangladesh

Close interpersonal contact likely drives spatial clustering of cases of cholera and diarrhea, but spatial clustering of risk factors may also drive this pattern. Few studies have focused specifically on how exposures for disease cluster at small spatial scales. Improving our understanding of the micro-scale clustering of risk factors for cholera may help to target interventions and power studies with cluster designs. We selected sets of spatially matched households (matched-sets) near cholera case households between April and October 2013 in a cholera endemic urban neighborhood of Tongi Township in Bangladesh. We collected data on exposures to suspected cholera risk factors at the household and individual level. We used intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) to characterize clustering of exposures within matched-sets and households, and assessed if clustering depended on the geographical extent of the matched-sets. Clustering over larger spatial scales was explored by assessing the relationship between matched-sets. We also explored whether different exposures tended to appear together in individuals, households, and matched-sets. Household level exposures, including: drinking municipal supplied water (ICC = 0.97, 95%CI = 0.96, 0.98), type of latrine (ICC = 0.88, 95%CI = 0.71, 1.00), and intermittent access to drinking water (ICC = 0.96, 95%CI = 0.87, 1.00) exhibited strong clustering within matched-sets. As the geographic extent of matched-sets increased, the concordance of exposures within matched-sets decreased. Concordance between matched-sets of exposures related to water supply was elevated at distances of up to approximately 400 meters. Household level hygiene practices were correlated with infrastructure shown to increase cholera risk. Co-occurrence of different individual level exposures appeared to mostly reflect the differing domestic roles of study participants. Strong spatial clustering of exposures at a small spatial scale in a cholera endemic population suggests a possible role for highly targeted interventions. Studies with cluster designs in areas with strong spatial clustering of exposures should increase sample size to account for the correlation of these exposures.     

Estimating vaccine effects on transmission of infection from household outbreak data

This article is concerned with a method for making inferences about various measures of vaccine efficacy. These measures describe reductions in susceptibility and in the potential to transmit infection. The method uses data on household outbreaks; it is based on a model that allows for transmission of infection both from within a household and from the outside. The use of household data is motivated by the hope that these are informative about vaccine-induced reduction of the potential to transmit infection, as household outbreaks contain some information about the possible source of infection. For illustration, the method is applied to observed data on household outbreaks of smallpox. These data are of the form needed and the number of households is of a size that can be managed in a vaccine trial. It is found that vaccine effects, such as the mean reduction in susceptibility and the mean reduction in the potential to infect others, per infectious contact, can be estimated with precision. However, a more specific parameter reflecting the reduction in infectivity for individuals partially responding to vaccination is not estimated well in the application. An evaluation of the method using artificial data shows that this parameter can be estimated with greater precision when we have outbreak data on a large number of small households.