Determinants of bird species richness,endemism, and island network roles in Wallacea and the West Indies: is geography sufficient or does current and historical climate matter?

Island biogeography has greatly contributed to our understanding of the processes determining species' distributions. Previous research has focused on the effects of island geography (i.e., island area, elevation, and isolation) and current climate as drivers of island species richness and endemism. Here, we evaluate the potential additional effects of historical climate on breeding land bird richness and endemism in Wallacea and the West Indies. Furthermore, on the basis of species distributions, we identify island biogeographical network roles and examine their association with geography, current and historical climate, and bird richness/endemism. We found that island geography, especially island area but also isolation and elevation, largely explained the variation in island species richness and endemism. Current and historical climate only added marginally to our understanding of the distribution of species on islands, and this was idiosyncratic to each archipelago. In the West Indies, endemic richness was slightly reduced on islands with historically unstable climates; weak support for the opposite was found in Wallacea. In both archipelagos, large islands with many endemics and situated far from other large islands had high importance for the linkage within modules, indicating that these islands potentially act as speciation pumps and source islands for surrounding smaller islands within the module and, thus, define the biogeographical modules. Large islands situated far from the mainland and/or with a high number of nonendemics acted as links between modules. Additionally, in Wallacea, but not in the West Indies, climatically unstable islands tended to interlink biogeographical modules. The weak and idiosyncratic effect of historical climate on island richness, endemism, and network roles indicates that historical climate had little effects on extinction‐immigration dynamics. This is in contrast to the strong effect of historical climate observed on the mainland, possibly because surrounding oceans buffer against strong climate oscillations and because geography is a strong determinant of island richness, endemism and network roles.     

Floristic biogeography of the Hawaiian Islands: influences of area, environment and paleogeography

Aim A detailed database of distributions and phylogenetic relationships of native Hawaiian flowering plant species is used to weigh the relative influences of environmental and historical factors on species numbers and endemism. Location The Hawaiian Islands are isolated in the North Pacific Ocean nearly 4000 km from the nearest continent and nearly as distant from the closest high islands, the Marquesas. The range of island sizes, environments, and geological histories within an extremely isolated archipelago make the Hawaiian Islands an ideal system in which to study spatial variation in species distributions and diversity. Because the biota is derived from colonization followed by extensive speciation, the role of evolution in shaping the regional species assemblage can be readily examined. Methods For whole islands and regions of each major habitat, species–area relationships were assessed. Residuals of species–area relationships were subjected to correlation analysis with measures of endemism, isolation, elevation and island age. Putative groups of descendents of each colonist from outside the Hawaiian Islands were considered phylogenetic lineages whose distributions were included in analyses. Results The species–area relationship is a prominent pattern among islands and among regions of each given habitat. Species number in each case correlates positively with number of endemics, number of lineages and number of species per lineage. For mesic and wet habitat regions, island age is more influential than area on species numbers, with older islands having more species, more single‐island endemics, and higher species : lineage ratios than their areas alone would predict. Main conclusions Because species numbers and endemism are closely tied to speciation in the Hawaiian flora, particularly in the most species‐rich phylogenetic lineages, individual islands’ histories are central in shaping their biota. The Maui Nui complex of islands (Maui, Moloka‘i, Lāna‘i and Kaho‘olawe), which formed a single large landmass during most of its history, is best viewed in terms of either the age or area of the complex as a whole, rather than the individual islands existing today.     

Patterns and processes of global riverine fish endemism

Aim To explore global patterns of riverine fish endemism by applying an island biogeography framework to river drainage basins and highlight evolutionary mechanisms producing two kinds of endemism: neo‐endemism, arising from within‐drainage cladogenetic speciation, and palaeo‐endemism, arising from species range contraction or anagenetic speciation. Location World‐wide. Methods We use a uniquely comprehensive data set of riverine fish species distributions to map global fish endemism patterns. We then use the relationships between (1) total species richness and proportions of endemic species and (2) total species richness and a measure of in situ (i.e. within‐drainage basin) probability of speciation by cladogenesis, to identify the two distinct forms of endemism. After separating drainage basins into two different sets according to dominance of one of these two forms, we apply a model averaging procedure to highlight, for both datasets, the environmental and historical variables that better explain endemism patterns. We finally analyse the effect of biotic components related to dispersal ability on the percentages of both kinds of endemism among lineages. Results Our results indicate that the two types of endemism are distributed differently across space and taxonomic lineages: (1) neo‐endemism, positively related to the overall richness of the drainage basin, is essentially linked to in situ cladogenetic speciation and is positively related to drainage basin area, negatively related to climate variability since glacial periods and negatively related to all proxies of dispersal ability; and (2) palaeo‐endemism, not directly contributing to drainage basin richness, is a pure process of extinction through range contraction and/or isolation through time and is mostly related to geographic isolation, glacial history and positively related to marine‐derived origin of families. Main conclusions The non‐random spatial and taxonomic distribution of neo‐endemism and palaeo‐endemism sharply reflects the role of evolutionary processes and provides a way to identify areas of high conservation interest based on their high present and future diversification potential.     

Monkeys and toads define areas of endemism on Sulawesi

Abstract.— Ecological or geological phenomena can impose limits on geographic diversification that cause biogeographical patterns of distantly related but sympatrically occurring taxa to be similar. Concordant patterns of diversity facilitate conservation management because strategic designation of protected areas can capture complementary rather than redundant components of variation. Here we demonstrate that on the biodiverse Indonesian island of Sulawesi, seemingly idiosyncratic distributions of diversity in endemic monkeys (Macaca species) and toads (Bufo celebensis) are actually virtually identical on a fine geographic scale. It appears that range fragmentation has generated seven multi-taxon areas of genetic endemism, each of which should be targeted for conservation. Joint consideration of molecular phylogeography, morphology, and demography helps resolve apparent contradictions in paraphyletic macaque mitochondrial DNA and in undifferentiated toad morphology, and facilitates an understanding of biogeography and conservation genetics of Sulawesi fauna.     

The living heart: Climate gradients predict desert mountain endemism

Mountain regions are centers of biodiversity endemism at a global scale but the role of arid‐zone mountain ranges in shaping biodiversity patterns is poorly understood. Focusing on three guilds of taxa from a desert upland refugium in Australia, we sought to determine: (a) the relative extent to which climate, terrain or geological substrate predict endemism, and (b) whether patterns of endemism are complimentary across broad taxonomic guilds. We mapped regional endemism for plants, land snails, and vertebrates using combined Species Distribution Models (SDMs) for all endemic taxa (n = 82). We then modelled predictors of endemism using Generalised Additive Models (GAMs) and geology, terrain, and climate variables. We tested for the presence of inter‐ and intraguild hotspots of endemism. Many individual plant and land snail taxa were tightly linked with geology, corresponding to small distributions. Conversely, most vertebrate taxa were not constrained to specific geological substrates and occurred over larger areas. However, across all three guilds climate was the strongest predictor of regional endemism, particularly for plants wherein discrete hotspots of endemism were buffered from extreme summer temperatures. Land snail and vertebrate endemism peaked in areas with highest precipitation in the driest times of the year. Hotspots of endemism within each guild poorly predicted endemism in other guilds. We found an overarching signal that climatic gradients play a dominant role in the persistence of endemic taxa in an arid‐zone mountain range system. An association with higher rainfall and cooler temperatures indicates that continuing trends toward hotter and drier climates may lead to range contractions in this, and potentially other, arid‐zone mountain biotas. Contrasting patterns of endemism across guilds highlight the need to couple comprehensive regional planning for the protection of climate refugia, with targeted management of more localized and habitat specialist taxa.     

Dragging into the open: the polythetic nature of areas of endemism

Areas of endemism represent territories (no matter the size) of non-random overlap in the geographic distribution of two or more taxa, reflecting a common spatial history of these taxa. The common spatial history is a result of different processes that connect areas of endemism to evolutionary theory. Numerous and diverse definitions of areas of endemism have been proposed. All of them have used as the conceptual foundation of the definition a certain degree of non-random congruence of geographic distribution amongst at least two taxa. ‘Certain degree’ means that geographic congruence does not demand complete agreement on the boundaries of those taxa's distributions at all possible scales of mapping. The words ‘certain degree’ mask the polythetic nature of areas of endemism. The polythetic characterization of areas of endemism implies that each locality of the study area has a large number of a set of species. Each species of this set is present in many of those localities and, generally, none of those species is present in every locality of the area. The converse will be a monothetic nature of areas of endemism where a taxon or group of taxa is present in all the localities of the study area. We propose here that the expansion of the definition of areas of endemism, including their polythetic characterization, will improve understanding of large biogeographic areas such as realms, regions, provinces, and districts, and will increase the scientific content (e.g., predictive capability and explanatory power) of areas of endemism.     

A phylogeny for grasshoppers of the genus Chitaura (Orthoptera: Acrididae) from Sulawesi, Indonesia, based on mitochondrial DNA sequence data

The Indonesian island of Sulawesi occupies a central position within the biogeographically complex region known as Wallacea. Its fauna is characterised by a high rate of endemism and a patchwork distribution of taxa within the island. The grasshopper genus Chitaura is a good example having at least ten endemic species with predominantly parapatric distributions. It can be used as a model for determining the origins of Sulawesi taxa and the within-island evolution that has led to the present patterns of distribution. Here we present a phylogenetic hypothesis for 28 individuals within the genus, including individuals of one species from Java and two from the Moluccas, based on DNA sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase 1 gene. Frequent sequence heteroplasmy was observed. The phylogenetic hypothesis is consistent with recent interpretations of the geological history of Sulawesi suggesting separate evolution on the island for 7–14 Myr, possibly since South Sulawesi was connected to Borneo. Within the island, the pattern of genetic divergence is dominated by a strong correlation with geographic distance, with exceptions indicating past or present barriers to dispersal. Colonisation of the Moluccas from North or Central Sulawesi is implied. Levels of genetic divergence are compared with distribution patterns of colour morphs and with possible effects of tectonic movements in the Cenozoic, or Pleistocene climatic, vegetational and sea-level changes.     

Areas and algorithms: evaluating numerical approaches for the delimitation of areas of endemism in the Canary Islands archipelago

Aim Areas of endemism are the fundamental units of cladistic biogeographical analysis but there is no consensus on the most appropriate method for their delimitation. In this paper, the relative performance of a number of algorithmic approaches for the delimitation of areas of endemism is investigated within the context of the Canary Islands flora, and areas of endemism within the Canary Islands archipelago are defined. Location The Canary Islands. Methods A data matrix comprising the distributions of 609 endemic spermatophyte taxa (c. 90% of the endemic flora) scored on a 10 × 10 km UTM grid was analysed using: (1) UPGMA (unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean) clustering of Jaccard and Kulczynski similarity coefficient matrices, (2) parsimony analysis of endemicity (PAE), and (3) the program ndm (eNDeMism). The performance of each method was then determined by the extent to which the resulting areas of endemism met three criteria: (1) possession of two or more strict endemic taxa, (2) diagnosability, and (3) geographical contiguity. Results Each of the four methods resulted in substantially different sets of areas. ndm analysis resolved 17 areas of endemism consistent with all three criteria, and collectively these accounted for 59% of all cells. In the hierarchical analyses none of the methods recovered more than eight areas of endemism, and the total coverage of cells ranged from 13% to 33% when the results were confined to intra‐island areas of endemism. Main conclusions ndm outperforms hierarchical clustering methods in terms of both the number of intra‐island areas of endemism delimited that meet the three evaluation criteria and the total coverage of those areas. ndm may also be considered preferable because it is non‐hierarchical, incorporates spatial information into the delimitation of areas, and permits overlap between areas of endemism where there is evidence to support it. The results support the use of ndm as the most appropriate method currently available for the delimitation of areas of endemism. The areas of endemism identified by the ndm analysis are discussed.     

Biogeology of Wallacea: geotectonic models,areas of endemism,and natural biogeographical units

The concepts of biogeographical regions and areas of endemism are briefly reviewed prior to a discussion of what constitutes a natural biogeographical unit. It is concluded that a natural biogeographical unit comprises a group of endemic species that share a geological history. These natural biogeographical units are termed Wallacean biogeographical units in honour of the biogeographer A.R. Wallace. Models of the geological development of Indonesia and the Philippines are outlined. Areas of endemism within Wallacea are identified by distributional data, and their relationship to each other and to the adjacent continental regions are evaluated using molecular phylogenies from the literature. The boundaries of these areas of endemism are in broad agreement with earlier works, but it is argued that the Tanimbar Islands are biologically part of south Maluku, rather than the Lesser Sundas, and that Timor (plus Savu, Roti, Wetar, Damar, and Babar) and the western Lesser Sundas form areas of endemism in their own right. Wallacean biogeographical units within Wallacea are identified by congruence between areas of endemism and geological history. It is concluded that although Wallacea as a whole is not a natural biogeographical region, neither is it completely artificial as it is formed from a complex of predominantly Australasian exotic fragments linked by geological processes within a complex collision zone. The Philippines are argued to be an integral part of Wallacea, as originally intended. © 2010 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2010, 101 , 193–212.     

Vicariance and endemism in a Neotropical savanna hotspot: distribution patterns of Cerrado squamate reptiles

Aim To test predictions of the vicariance model, to define basic biogeographical units for Cerrado squamates, and to discuss previous biogeographical hypotheses. Location Cerrado; South American savannas south of the Amazon, extending across central Brazil, with marginal areas in Bolivia and Paraguay and isolated relictual enclaves in adjacent regions. Methods We compiled species occurrence records via field sampling and revision of museum specimens and taxonomic literature. All species were mapped according to georeferenced locality records, and classified as (1) endemic or non‐endemic, (2) typical of plateaus or depressions, and (3) typical of open or forested habitats. We tested predictions of the vicariance model using biotic element analysis, searching for non‐random clusters of species ranges. Spatial congruence of biotic elements was compared with putative areas of endemism revealed by sympatric restricted‐range species. Effects of topographical and vegetational mosaics on distribution patterns were studied according to species composition in biotic elements and areas of endemism. Results We recorded 267 Cerrado squamates, of which 103 (39%) are endemics, including 20 amphisbaenians (61% endemism), 32 lizards (42%) and 51 snakes (32%). Distribution patterns corroborated predictions of the vicariance model, revealing groups of species with significantly clustered ranges. An analysis of endemic species recovered seven biotic elements, corroborating results including non‐endemics. Sympatric restricted‐range taxa delimited 10 putative areas of endemism, largely coincident with core areas of biotic elements detected with endemic taxa. Distribution patterns were associated with major topographical and vegetational divisions of the Cerrado. Endemism prevailed in open, elevated plateaus, whereas faunal interchange, mostly associated with forest habitats, was more common in peripheral depressions. Main conclusions Our results indicate that vicariant speciation has strongly shaped Cerrado squamate diversity, in contrast to earlier studies emphasizing faunal interchange and low endemism in the Cerrado vertebrate fauna. Levels of squamate endemism are higher than in any other Cerrado vertebrate group. The high number of recovered endemics revealed previously undetected areas of evolutionary relevance, indicating that biogeographical patterns in the Cerrado were poorly represented in previous analyses. Although still largely undocumented, effects of vicariant speciation may be prevalent in a large fraction of Cerrado and Neotropical biodiversity.     

Cladistic analysis of distributions and endemism (CADE): using raw distributions of birds to unravel the biogeography of the South American aridlands

Aim To use published distributional and taxonomic information on Neotropical birds in a cladistic analysis of distributions and endemism (CADE) to generate a testable hypothesis of area‐relationships for the arid areas of endemism, particularly those of Central South America (the ‘arid diagonal’), and to clarify the different methodologies commonly associated with parsimony analysis of endemicity (PAE). Location South America. Methods Cladistic analysis of distributions and endemism. Results We obtain a tree where the relationships of most areas are resolved, and we find support for an exclusive clade of Central South American areas, with the Caatinga as sister to both the Chaco and Cerrado. Main conclusions There is a substantial amount of historical signal in avian distributions, when large numbers of taxa and multiple taxonomic levels are considered. Ecological noise and historical information are more easily distinguished in CADE analyses than they would be in PAE analyses. Based on our results we predict that among aridland birds, the Cerrado and Chaco species will be more closely related to each other than to Caatinga species.     

A palaeobiogeographic model for biotic diversification within Amazonia over the past three million years

Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain high species diversity in Amazonia, but few generalizations have emerged. In part, this has arisen from the scarcity of rigorous tests for mechanisms promoting speciation, and from major uncertainties about palaeogeographic events and their spatial and temporal associations with diversification. Here, we investigate the environmental history of Amazonia using a phylogenetic and biogeographic analysis of trumpeters (Aves: Psophia), which are represented by species in each of the vertebrate areas of endemism. Their relationships reveal an unforeseen 'complete' time-slice of Amazonian diversification over the past 3.0 Myr. We employ this temporally calibrated phylogeny to test competing palaeogeographic hypotheses. Our results are consistent with the establishment of the current Amazonian drainage system at approximately 3.0-2.0 Ma and predict the temporal pattern of major river formation over Plio-Pleistocene times. We propose a palaeobiogeographic model for the last 3.0 Myr of Amazonian history that has implications for understanding patterns of endemism, the temporal history of Amazonian diversification and mechanisms promoting speciation. The history of Psophia, in combination with new geological evidence, provides the strongest direct evidence supporting a role for river dynamics in Amazonian diversification, and the absence of such a role for glacial climate cycles and refugia.     

BIOGEOGRAPHY OF INDO-PACIFIC CICADOIDEA: A TENTATIVE RECOGNITION OF AREAS OF ENDEMISM

Abstract— The biogeography of the cicadas of the Indo-Pacific is discussed in relation to paleogeography and compared with distribution patterns found in other groups of organisms. The cicadas show a low degree of endemism in the mainland of southeast Asia and the Greater Sunda Islands, and a high degree of endemism in Sulawesi, New Guinea, and the islands of the west Pacific. The biogeography of the cicadas of these regions with high endemism is analyzed for four groups: the subtribe Cosmopsaltriaria, the tribe Prasiini, the genus Baeturia , and the Pacific Cryptotympanini. A review of the paleogeography of the Indo-Pacific, specifying the relevant barriers, island arcs, and land connections, is provided. The recognized areas of endemism are tentatively related to the geological history of the Indo-Pacific. Areas of endemism are the Sulawesi Arcs and the Outer and Inner Melanesian Arcs. New Guinea appears to be a composite of areas of different origin: the central mountains of the Inner Melanesian Arc, the north-coast mountains of the Outer Melanesian Arc, and the Vogelkop area, which is of uncertain origin. The Papuan Peninsula of New Guinea seems to be a zone of overlap between the Outer and the Inner Melanesian Arcs. The Pacific archipelagos of the Outer Melanesian Arcs (viz., the Bismarck Archipelago, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and the Fiji, Tonga, and Samoa Islands) represent distinct areas of endemism. The taxon-area cladogram of the Cosmopsaltriaria gives some indication of the relationships among the areas of endemism. The discussion is extended to groups of bats, frogs, psocids, butterflies, and moths of the Melanesian Arcs, as their patterns of distribution seem equally relevant for the recognition of the biogeographic interrelationships in the Indo-Pacific.     

Rapid altitudinal migration of mountain plants in Taiwan and its implications for high altitude biodiversity

Mountain systems throughout the globe are characterized by high levels of species richness and species endemism. Biodiversity, however, is not distributed evenly with altitude, but often declines from mid to high altitudes. Conversely, endemic species may be over‐represented at high altitudes. Upward elevational range shifts of mountain species have been reported in response to ongoing changes in climate, yet the reports are dominated by studies on woody species and mountains at high latitudes. We investigated spatial and temporal changes in the mountain biodiversity in the subtropical island of Taiwan, based on historical survey and resurvey data during the period 1906–2006. We found that upper altitudinal limits of mountain plant distributions have risen by ca 3.6 m yr^?1 during the last century, in parallel with rising temperatures in the region. Although species, genus, and family richness decline with altitude, ca 55% of species at the highest altitudes are endemic to the island. Given the steep decline in land area with increasing elevation, these high altitude areas are disproportionately important for plant biodiversity when richness and endemism are standardized by available land area. We argue that the distributional shift that we report, in combination with the altitudinal distribution of plant diversity, is likely to pose a major threat to high mountain species of this highly biodiverse island, a threat that is becoming increasingly evident for high mountain plants throughout the globe.     

Amphibian Hotspots and Conservation Priorities in Eastern Cuba Identified by Species Distribution Modeling

The high rate of amphibian endemism and the severe habitat modification in the Caribbean islands make them an ideal place to test if the current protected areas network might protect this group. In this study, we model distribution and map species richness of the 40 amphibian species from eastern Cuba with the objectives of identify hotspots, detect gaps in species representation in protected areas, and select additional areas to fill these gaps. We used two modeling methods, Maxent and Habitat Suitability Models, to reach a consensus distribution map for each species, then calculate species richness by combining specific models and finally performed gap analyses for species and hotspots. Our results showed that the models were robust enough to predict species distributions and that most of the amphibian hotspots were represented in reserves, but 50 percent of the species were incompletely covered and Eleutherodactylus rivularis was totally uncovered by the protected areas. We identified 1441 additional km² (9.9% of the study area) that could be added to the current protected areas, allowing the representation of every species and all hotspots. Our results are relevant for the conservation planning in other Caribbean islands, since studies like this could contribute to fill the gaps in the existing protected areas and to design a future network. Both cases would benefit from modeling amphibian species distribution using available data, even if they are incomplete, rather than relying only in the protection of known or suspected hotspots.     

Persistence and stochasticity are key determinants of genetic diversity in plants associated with banded iron formation inselbergs

The high species endemism characteristic of many of the world's terrestrial island systems provides a model for studying evolutionary patterns and processes, yet there has been no synthesis of studies to provide a systematic evaluation of terrestrial island systems in this context. The banded iron formations (BIFs) of south‐western Australia are ancient terrestrial island formations occurring within a mosaic of alluvial clay soils, sandplains and occasional granite outcropping, across an old, gently undulating, highly weathered, plateau. Notably, these BIFs display exceptionally high beta plant diversity. Here, we address the determinants and consequences of genetic diversity for BIF‐associated plant species through a comprehensive review of all studies on species distribution modelling, phylogenetics, phylogeography, population genetics, life‐history traits and ecology. The taxa studied are predominantly narrowly endemic to individual or a few BIF ranges, but some have more regional distributions occurring both on and off BIFs. We compared genetic data for these BIF‐endemic species to other localised species globally to assess whether the unique history and ancestry of BIF landscapes has driven distinct genetic responses in plants restricted to this habitat. We also assessed the influence of life‐history parameters on patterns of genetic diversity. We found that BIF‐endemic species display similar patterns of genetic diversity and structure to other species with localised distributions. Despite often highly restricted distributions, large effective population size or clonal reproduction appears to provide these BIF‐endemic species with ecological and evolutionary resilience to environmental stochasticity. We conclude that persistence and stochasticity are key determinants of genetic diversity and its spatial structure within BIF‐associated plant species, and that these are key evolutionary processes that should be considered in understanding the biogeography of inselbergs worldwide.     

Pliocene forest dynamics as a primary driver of African bird speciation

Aim Montane tropics are areas of high endemism, and mechanisms driving this endemism have been receiving increasing attention at a global scale. A general trend is that climatic factors do not explain the species richness of species with small to medium‐sized geographic ranges, suggesting that geological and evolutionary processes must be considered. On the African continent, several hypotheses including both refugial and geographic uplift models have been advanced to explain avian speciation and diversity in the lowland forest and montane regions of central and eastern Africa; montane regions in particular are recognized as hotspots of vertebrate endemism. Here, we examine the possible role of these models in driving speciation in a clade of African forest robins. Location Africa. Methods We constructed the first robustly supported molecular phylogenetic hypothesis of forest robins. On this phylogeny, we reconstructed habitat‐based distributions and geographic distributions relative to the Albertine Rift. We also estimated the timing of lineage divergences via a molecular clock. Results Robust estimates of phylogenetic relationships and clock‐based divergences reject Miocene tectonic uplift and Pleistocene forest refugia as primary drivers of speciation in forest robins. Instead, our data suggest that most forest robin speciation took place in the Late Pliocene, from 3.2 to 2.2 Ma. Distributional patterns are complex, with the Albertine Rift region serving as a general east–west break across the group. Montane distributions are inferred to have evolved four times. Main conclusions Phylogenetic divergence dates coincide with a single period of lowland forest retraction in the late Pliocene, suggesting that most montane speciation resulted from the rapid isolation of populations in montane areas, rather than montane areas themselves being drivers of speciation. This conclusion provides additional evidence that Pliocene climate change was a major driver of speciation in broadly distributed African animal lineages. We further show that lowland forest robins are no older than their montane relatives, suggesting that lowland areas are not museums which house ‘ancient’ taxa; rather, for forest robins, montane areas should be viewed as living museums of a late Pliocene diversification event. A forest refugial pattern is operating in Africa, but it is not constrained to the Pleistocene.     

Niche dynamics of Memecylon in Sri Lanka: Distribution patterns,climate change effects,and conservation priorities

Recent climate projections have shown that the distribution of organisms in island biotas is highly affected by climate change. Here, we present the result of the analysis of niche dynamics of a plant group, Memecylon, in Sri Lanka, an island, using species occurrences and climate data. We aim to determine which climate variables explain current distribution, model how climate change impacts the availability of suitable habitat for Memecylon, and determine conservation priority areas for Sri Lankan Memecylon. We used georeferenced occurrence data of Sri Lankan Memecylon to develop ecological niche models and assess both current and future potential distributions under six climate change scenarios in 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. We also overlaid land cover and protected area maps and performed a gap analysis to understand the impacts of land‐cover changes on Memecylon distributions and propose new areas for conservation. Differences among suitable habitats of Memecylon were found to be related to patterns of endemism. Under varying future climate scenarios, endemic groups were predicted to experience habitat shifts, gains, or losses. The narrow endemic Memecylon restricted to the montane zone were predicted to be the most impacted by climate change. Projections also indicated that changes in species’ habitats can be expected as early as 2041–2060. Gap analysis showed that while narrow endemic categories are considerably protected as demonstrated by their overlap with protected areas, more conservation efforts in Sri Lankan forests containing wide endemic and nonendemic Memecylon are needed. This research helped clarify general patterns of responses of Sri Lankan Memecylon to global climate change. Data from this study are useful for designing measures aimed at filling the gaps in forest conservation on this island.     

Evolutionary processes,dispersal limitation and climatic history shape current diversity patterns of European dragonflies

We investigated the effects of contemporary and historical factors on the spatial variation of European dragonfly diversity. Specifically, we tested to what extent patterns of endemism and phylogenetic diversity of European dragonfly assemblages are structured by 1) phylogenetic conservatism of thermal adaptations and 2) differences in the ability of post‐glacial recolonization by species adapted to running waters (lotic) and still waters (lentic). We investigated patterns of dragonfly diversity using digital distribution maps and a phylogeny of 122 European dragonfly species, which we constructed by combining taxonomic and molecular data. We calculated total taxonomic distinctiveness and mean pairwise distances across 4192 50 × 50 km equal‐area grid cells as measures of phylogenetic diversity. We compared species richness with corrected weighted endemism and standardized effect sizes of mean pairwise distances or residuals of total taxonomic distinctiveness to identify areas with higher or lower phylogenetic diversity than expected by chance. Broken‐line regression was used to detect breakpoints in diversity–latitude relationships. Dragonfly species richness peaked in central Europe, whereas endemism and phylogenetic diversity decreased from warm areas in the south‐west to cold areas in the north‐east and with an increasing proportion of lentic species. Except for species richness, all measures of diversity were consistently higher in formerly unglaciated areas south of the 0°C isotherm during the Last Glacial Maximum than in formerly glaciated areas. These results indicate that the distributions of dragonfly species in Europe were shaped by both phylogenetic conservatism of thermal adaptations and differences between lentic and lotic species in the ability of post‐glacial recolonization/dispersal in concert with the climatic history of the continent. The complex diversity patterns of European dragonflies provide an example of how integrating climatic and evolutionary history with contemporary ecological data can improve our understanding of the processes driving the geographical variation of biological diversity.     

THE EVOLUTION OF LOCAL ENDEMISM IN MADAGASCAR: WATERSHED VERSUS CLIMATIC GRADIENT HYPOTHESES EVALUATED BY NULL BIOGEOGRAPHIC MODELS

Substantial insular speciation has resulted in exceptionally high levels of endemism in Madagascar, creating locally restricted species' ranges that remain poorly understood. The contributions of alternative processes that could influence patterns of local endemism—including speciation by geographic isolation or adaptation to environmental gradients—are widely debated, both for Madagascar and elsewhere. A recently proposed hypothesis (the "watershed hypothesis") suggests that allopatric speciation driven by isolation in watersheds during Quaternary climate shifts provides a general explanation for patterns of local endemism across taxa in Madagascar. Here we tested coincidence between species' distributions and areas of endemism predicted by two contrasting biogeographic hypotheses: (1) the watershed hypothesis, and (2) an alternative hypothesis driven by climatic gradients (the "current climate hypothesis"). Statistical significance of coincidence was assessed by comparing against a null model. Surprisingly, we found that extant distributions of lemurs, geckos, and chameleons reveal species patterns that are significantly coincident with the watershed and current climate hypotheses. These results strongly support local endemism developing from multiple processes, even among closely related species. Our findings thus indicate that pluralistic approaches will offer the best option both for understanding processes that generate local endemism, and for incorporating endemism within conservation priority setting.