Prospective study of risk factors for development of non-insulin dependent diabetes in middle aged British men.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the risk factors for noninsulin dependent diabetes in a cohort representative of middle aged British men. DESIGN--Prospective study. SUBJECTS AND SETTINGS--7735 men aged 40-59, drawn from one group practice in each of 24 towns in Britain. Known and probable cases of diabetes at screening (n = 158) were excluded. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Non-insulin dependent diabetes (doctor diagnosed) over a mean follow up period of 12.8 years. RESULTS--There were 194 new cases of non-insulin dependent diabetes. Body mass index was the dominant risk factor for diabetes, with an age adjusted relative risk (upper fifth to lower fifth) of 11.6; 95% confidence interval 5.4 to 16.8. Men engaged in moderate levels of physical activity had a substantially reduced risk of diabetes, relative to the physically inactive men, after adjustment for age and body mass index (0.4; 0.2 to 0.7), an association which persisted in full multivariate analysis. A nonlinear relation between alcohol intake and diabetes was observed, with the lowest risk among moderate drinkers (16-42 units/week) relative to the baseline group of occasional drinkers (0.6; 0.4 to 1.0). Additional significant predictors of diabetes in multivariate analysis included serum triglyceride concentration, high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration (inverse association), heart rate, uric acid concentration, and prevalent coronary heart disease. CONCLUSION--These findings emphasise the interrelations between risk factors for non-insulin dependent diabetes and coronary heart disease and the potential value of an integrated approach to the prevention of these conditions based on the prevention of obesity and the promotion of physical activity.     

Risk factors for developing non-insulin dependent diabetes: a 10 year follow up of men in Uppsala.

OBJECTIVE--To analyse anthropometric and metabolic characteristics as risk factors for development of non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus in middle aged normoglycaemic men. DESIGN--Prospective population study based on data collected in a health survey and follow up 10 years later. SETTING--Uppsala, a middle sized city in Sweden. SUBJECTS--2322 men aged 47-53, of whom 1860 attended the follow up 7-14 years later, at which time they were aged 56-64. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Incidence of non-insulin dependent diabetes. RESULTS--In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, variations of 1 SD from the mean of the group that remained euglycaemic were used to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals. Blood glucose concentration 60 minutes after the start of an intravenous glucose tolerance test (odds ratio = 5.93, 95% confidence interval 3.05 to 11.5), fasting serum insulin concentration (2.12, 1.54 to 2.93), acute insulin increment at an intravenous glucose tolerance test (1.71, 1.21 to 2.43), body mass index (1.41, 1.01 to 1.97), and systolic blood pressure (1.23, 0.97 to 1.56) were independent predictors of diabetes. In addition, the use of antihypertensive drugs at follow up (selective or unselective beta blocking agents, thiazides, or hydralazine) was an independent risk factor (1.70, 1.11 to 2.60). CONCLUSIONS--Metabolic and anthropometric characteristics associated with or reflecting insulin resistance as well as a poor acute insulin response to glucose challenge were important predictors of future diabetes in middle aged men. Antihypertensive drugs were found to constitute a further, iatrogenic risk factor.     

How much alcohol and how often? Population based case-control study of alcohol consumption and risk of a major coronary event.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the effects of quantity and frequency of alcohol consumption on risk of acute myocardial infarction and coronary death. DESIGN: Case-control study. SETTING: Lower Hunter region of New South Wales, Australia, 1983-94. SUBJECTS: Men and women aged 35-69 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Acute myocardial infarction or coronary death. RESULTS: Alcohol consumption patterns were compared between 11,511 cases of acute myocardial infarction or coronary death and 6077 controls randomly selected from the same study population. After adjusting for the effects of age, smoking, and medical history, men and women who consumed one or two drinks of alcohol on five or six days a week had a reduction in risk of a major coronary event compared with men and women who were non-drinkers (odds ratios: men 0.31 (95% confidence interval 0.22 to 0.45); women 0.33 (0.18 to 0.59)). A similar reduction in risk was found after excluding non-drinkers who were formerly moderate to heavy drinkers. An acute protective effect of alcohol consumption was also found for regular drinkers who consumed one or two drinks in the 24 hours preceding the onset of symptoms (odds ratios: men 0.74 (0.51 to 1.09); women 0.43 (0.20 to 0.95)). CONCLUSIONS: Frequency and quantity of alcohol consumption are important in assessing the risk of a major coronary event. Risk is lowest among men who report one to four drinks daily on five or six days a week and among women who report one or two drinks daily on five or six days a week.     

Influence of sex,age, body mass index,and smoking on alcohol intake and mortality.

OBJECTIVE--To examine the association between self reported alcohol intake and subsequent mortality from all causes and if the effect of alcohol intake on the risk of death is modified by sex, age, body mass index, and smoking. DESIGN--Prospective population study with baseline assessment of alcohol and tobacco consumption and body mass index, and 10-12 years'' follow up of mortality. SETTING--Copenhagen city heart study, Denmark. SUBJECTS--7234 women and 6051 men aged 30-79 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Number and time of deaths from 1976 to 1988. RESULTS--A total of 2229 people died, 1398 being men. A U shaped curve described the relation between alcohol intake and mortality. The lowest risk was observed at one to six alcoholic beverages a week (relative risk set at 1). Abstainers had a relative risk of 1.37 (95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.56) whereas those drinking more than 70 beverages a week had a relative risk of 2.29 (1.75 to 3.00). Among the drinkers, the risk was significantly increased only among those drinking more than 42 beverages a week. Sex, age, body mass index, and smoking did not significantly modify the risk function. The risk among heavy drinkers was slightly reduced when smoking was controlled for. The risk function was similar in the first and second period of six years of observation. CONCLUSION--Alcohol intake showed a U shaped relation to mortality with the nadir at one to six beverages a week. The risk function was not modified by sex, age, body mass index, or smoking and remained stable over 12 years.     

Differences in mortality and morbidity in African Caribbean and European people with non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus: results of 20 year follow up of a London cohort of a multinational study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine differences in morbidity and mortality due to non-insulin dependent diabetes in African Caribbeans and Europeans. DESIGN: Cohort study of patients with non-insulin dependent diabetes drawn from diabetes clinics in London. Baseline investigations were performed in 1975-7; follow up continued until 1995. PATIENTS: 150 Europeans and 77 African Caribbeans with non-insulin dependent diabetes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All cause and cardiovascular mortality; prevalence of microvascular and macrovascular complications. RESULTS: Duration of diabetes was shorter in African Caribbeans, particularly women. African Caribbeans were more likely than the Europeans to have been given a diagnosis after the onset of symptoms and less likely to be taking insulin. Mean cholesterol concentration was lower in African Caribbeans, but blood pressure and body mass index were not different in the two ethnic groups. Prevalence of microvascular and macrovascular complications was insignificantly lower in African Caribbens than in Europeans. 59 Europeans and 16 African Caribbeans had died by the end of follow up. The risk ratio for all cause mortality was 0.41 (95% confidence interval 0.23 to 0.73) (P = 0.002) for African Caribbeans v Europeans. This was attenuated to 0.59 (0.32 to 1.10) (P = 0.1) after adjustment for sex, smoking, proteinuria, and body mass index. Further adjustment for systolic blood pressure, cholesterol concentration, age, duration of diabetes, and treatment made little difference to the risk ratio. Unadjusted risk ratio for cardiovascular and ischaemic heart disease were 0.33 (0.15 to 0.70) (P = 0.004) and 0.37 (0.16 to 0.85) (P = 0.02) respectively. CONCLUSIONS: African Caribbeans with non-insulin dependent diabetes maintain a low risk of heart disease. Management priorities for diabetes developed in one ethnic group may not necessarily be applicable to other groups.     

Alcohol consumption,serum low density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration,and risk of ischaemic heart disease: six year follow up in the Copenhagen male study.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the interplay between use of alcohol, concentration of low density lipoprotein cholesterol, and risk of ischaemic heart disease. DESIGN: Prospective study with controlling for several relevant confounders, including concentrations of other lipid fractions. SETTING: Copenhagen male study, Denmark. SUBJECTS: 2826 men aged 53-74 years without overt ischaemic heart disease. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of ischaemic heart disease during a six year follow up period. RESULTS: 172 men (6.1%) had a first ischaemic heart disease event. There was an overall inverse association between alcohol intake and risk of ischaemic heart disease. The association was highly dependent on concentration of low density lipoprotein cholesterol. In men with a high concentration (> or = 5.25 mmol/l) cumulative incidence rates of ischaemic heart disease were 16.4% for abstainers, 8.7% for those who drank 1-21 beverages a week, and 4.4% for those who drank 22 or more beverages a week. With abstainers as reference and after adjustment for confounders, corresponding relative risks (95% confidence interval) were 0.4 (0.2 to 1.0; P<0.05) and 0.2 (0.1 to 0.8; P<0.01). In men with a concentration <3.63 mmol/l use of alcohol was not associated with risk. The attributable risk (95% confidence interval) of ischaemic heart disease among men with concentrations > or = 3.63 mmol/l who abstained from drinking alcohol was 43% (10% to 64%). CONCLUSIONS: In middle aged and elderly men the inverse association between alcohol consumption and risk of ischaemic heart disease is highly dependent on the concentration of low density lipoprotein cholesterol. These results support the suggestion that use of alcohol may in part explain the French paradox.     

Risk factors for development of incipient and overt diabetic nephropathy in patients with non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus: prospective,observational study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate putative risk factors for the development of incipient diabetic nephropathy (persistent microalbuminuria) and overt diabetic nephropathy (persistent macroalbuminuria) in patients with non-insulin dependent diabetes. DESIGN: Prospective, observational study of a cohort of white, non-insulin dependent diabetic patients followed for a median period of 5.8 years. SETTING: Outpatient clinic in tertiary referral centre. SUBJECTS: 191 patients aged under 66 years with non-insulin dependent diabetes and normoalbuminuria (urinary albumin excretion rate < 30 mg/24 h) who attended the clinic during 1987. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Incipient and overt diabetic nephropathy. RESULTS: Fifteen patients were lost to follow up. Thirty six of the 176 remaining developed persistent microalbuminuria (30-299 mg/24 h in two out of three consecutive 24 hour urine collections) and five developed persistent macroalbuminuria (> or = mg/24 h in two out of three consecutive collections) during follow up. The five year cumulative incidence of incipient diabetic nephropathy was 23% (95% confidence interval 17% to 30%). Cox''s multiple stepwise regression analysis revealed the following risk factors for the development of incipient or overt diabetic nephropathy: increased baseline log urinary albumin excretion rate (relative risk 11.1 (3.4 to 35.9); P < 0.0001); male sex (2.6 (1.2 to 5.4); P < 0.02); presence of retinopathy (2.4 (1.3 to 4.7); P < 0.01); increased serum cholesterol concentration (1.4 (1.1 to 1.7); P < 0.01); haemoglobin A1c concentration (1.2 (1.0 to 1.4); P < 0.05); and age (1.07 (1.02 to 1.12); P < 0.01). Known duration of diabetes, body mass index, arterial blood pressure, serum creatinine concentration, pre-existing coronary heart disease, and history of smoking were not risk factors. CONCLUSION: Several potentially modifiable risk factors predict the development of incipient and overt diabetic nephropathy in normoalbuminuric patients with non-insulin dependent diabetes.     

Alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes among older adults: the Cardiovascular Health Study

Objective: The objective was to examine the role of total and beverage‐specific alcohol consumption on the incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) among elderly men and women. Research Methods and Procedures: We studied prospectively 4655 participants of the Cardiovascular Health Study who were free of DM at baseline. Alcohol consumption was obtained at baseline and during follow‐up examinations. DM was defined using fasting glucose and/or use of hypoglycemic medications. We used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate adjusted relative risks of diabetes across alcohol categories. Results: During a mean follow‐up of 6.3 years, 234 incident cases of DM were documented. Compared with never drinkers, hazard ratios [95% confidence interval (CI)] for DM were 0.7 (0.3 to 1.4), 0.5 (0.3 to 0.9), 0.6 (0.4 to 1.1), and 0.8 (0.4 to 1.3) for former drinkers and current drinkers of <1, 1 to 6, and 7+ drinks per week, respectively, for men after adjustment for age, BMI, education, and smoking. Corresponding values for women were 1.2 (0.6 to 2.3), 0.7 (0.4 to 1.1), 0.6 (0.3 to 1.1), and 0.4 (0.2 to 1.0), respectively. A reduced risk of DM was observed with all types of beverage consumed. Similar findings were observed when we repeated the above analyses using simple or weighted cumulative alcohol update and covariates over time. Discussion: Light to moderate alcohol consumption was associated with a lower incidence of DM among elderly people, irrespective of the type of beverage consumed.     

Follow up study of moderate alcohol intake and mortality among middle aged men in Shanghai,China.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the risk of death associated with various patterns of alcohol intake. DESIGN: Prospective study of mortality in relation to alcohol consumption at recruitment, with active annual follow up. SETTING: Four small, geographically defined communities in Shanghai, China. SUBJECTS: 18,244 men aged 45-64 years enrolled in a prospective study of diet and cancer during January 1986 to September 1989. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: All cause mortality. RESULTS: By 28 February 1995, 1198 deaths (including 498 from cancer, 269 from stroke, and 104 from ischaemic heart disease) had been identified. Compared with lifelong non-drinkers, those who consumed 1-14 drinks a week had a 19% reduction in overall mortality (relative risk 0.81; 95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.94) after age, level of education, and cigarette smoking were adjusted for. This protective effect was not restricted to any specific type of alcoholic drink. Although light to moderate drinking (28 or fewer drinks per week) was associated with a 36% reduction in death from ischaemic heart disease (0.64; 0.41 to 0.998), it had no effect on death from stroke, which is the leading cause of death in this population. As expected, heavy drinking (29 or more drinks per week) was significantly associated with increased risks of death from cancer of the upper aerodigestive tract, hepatic cirrhosis, and stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Regular consumption of small amounts of alcohol is associated with lower overall mortality including death from ischaemic heart disease in middle aged Chinese men. The type of alcoholic drink does not affect this association.     

Risk factors for early death in non-insulin dependent diabetes and men with known glucose tolerance status.

OBJECTIVE--To identify risk factors for all cause mortality according to glucose tolerance status. DESIGN--Cohort study with an average 15.6 years'' follow up. SETTING--Paris, France. SUBJECTS--7166 working men aged 44-55 in 1968-72 in the Paris prospective study cohort, with non-insulin dependent diabetes or known result of two hour 75 g oral glucose tolerance test. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Risk factors for death from all causes. RESULTS--128 men were known to be diabetic, 180 had diabetes diagnosed, and 697 had impaired glucose tolerance diagnosed. Compared with normoglycaemic men the relative risks of death in these groups were 2.0 (95% confidence interval 1.4 to 3.0), 2.7 (2.0 to 3.6), and 1.6 (1.3 to 2.0) respectively. Obesity, smoking, high blood pressure, and high non-esterified fatty acid concentration were risk factors for death in all subjects and were unaffected by glucose tolerance. The risks for fasting and two hour insulin concentrations and mean corpuscular volume were two times higher in known diabetic men than in men not known to be diabetic. Central obesity was significant only in men not known to be diabetic (1.6 (1.4 to 1.9)). In known diabetic men a two hour glucose concentration higher than 11.1 mmol/l carried a relative risk of death of 3.8 (1.4 to 9.4). CONCLUSIONS--Diabetic men have similar risk factors for early mortality to other men but are at higher risk from hyperinsulinaemia, hyperglycaemia, and high mean corpuscular volume.     

Risk factors associated with head and neck cancer in former smokers: A Brazilian multicentric study

BackgroundReduced tobacco consumption in the population has not been associated with reduced incidence rates of head and neck cancer in several countries.ObjectiveTo explore the associations between HNC and sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle of former smokers from three Brazilian cancer centers.MethodsA multicenter case-control study was conducted with 229 former smokers diagnosed with squamous cell carcinoma of the oral cavity, oropharynx, larynx, and 318 controls (former smokers without head and neck cancer). Bivariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted to estimate odds ratios (ORs) with a 95% confidence interval (CI).Results11–20 years after smoking cessation showed significant impact on HNC reduction (OR 0.22, 95% CI, 0.12–0.39), which reached 82% (95% CI, 0.09–0.35) among 20 + former smokers when compared to individuals who had stopped smoking for up to 5 years. A history of high-intensity smoking (>40 pack-years) increased HNC risk by 2.09 times (95% CI 1.13–3.89) when compared to subjects who smoked up to 20 pack-years. Past alcohol consumption (OR 1.99, 95% CI, 1.06–3.82) was also associated with head and neck cancer risk in former smokers when compared to no alcohol consumption. There was a decreased head and neck cancer risk in former smokers who had high school level of education (OR 0.38, 95% CI, 0.16–0.91) compared to illiterate former smokers; and former smokers with moderate intake of vegetables (OR 0.49, 95% CI, 0.28–0.85) and fruits (OR 0.43, 95% CI, 0.25–0.73) compared to those with low intake.ConclusionHead and neck cancer risk in former smokers decreases after 11 years after smoking cessation, former smokers with past alcohol consumption showed an increased risk of HNC. High school level of education and moderate intake of vegetables and fruits reduced HNC risk among former smokers.     

Non-employment and changes in smoking,drinking, and body weight.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the effect of unemployment and early retirement on cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, and body weight in middle aged British men. DESIGN--Prospective cohort study (British regional heart study). SETTING--One general practice in 24 towns in Britain. SUBJECTS--6057 men aged 40-59 who had been continuously employed for five years before the initial screening. Five years after screening 4412 men had been continuously employed and 1645 had experienced some unemployment or retired. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Numbers of cigarettes smoked and units of alcohol consumed per week and body mass index (kg/m2). RESULTS--An initial screening significantly higher percentages of men who subsequently experienced non-employment smoked or had high alcohol consumption than of men who remained continuously employed: 43.0% versus 37.0% continuously employed for cigarette smoking (95% confidence interval for difference 3.2% to 9.0%) and 12.1% versus 9.0% for heavy drinking (1.3% to 5.1%). There was no evidence that men increased their smoking or drinking on becoming non-employed. Men non-employed through illness were significantly more likely to reduce their smoking and drinking than men who remained continuously employed. Men who experienced non-employment were significantly more likely to gain over 10% in weight than men who remained continuously employed: 7.5% versus 5.0% continuously employed (0.9% to 4.0%). CONCLUSIONS--Loss of employment was not associated with increased smoking or drinking but was associated with an increased likelihood of gaining weight. The long term effects of the higher levels of smoking and alcohol consumption before nonemployment should be taken into account when comparing mortality and morbidity in groups of unemployed and employed people.     

Weight Cycling and the Risk of Developing Type 2 Diabetes among Adult Women in the United States

Objective: To assess the role of weight cycling independent of BMI and weight change in predicting the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Research Methods and Procedures: A six‐year follow‐up of 46, 634 young and middle‐aged women in the Nurses’ Health Study II was conducted. Women who had intentionally lost ≥20 lbs at least three times between 1989 and 1993 were classified as severe weight cyclers. Women who had intentionally lost ≥10 lbs at least three times were classified as mild weight cyclers. The outcome was physician‐diagnosed type 2 diabetes. Results: Between 1989 and 1993, ～20% of the women were mild weight cyclers, and 1.6% were severe weight cyclers. BMI in 1993 was positively associated with weight‐cycling status (p < 0.001). During 6 years of follow‐up (1993 to 1999), 418 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were documented. BMI in 1993 had a strong association with the risk of developing diabetes. Compared with women with a BMI between 17 and 22 kg/m², those with a BMI between 25 and 29.9 kg/m² were approximately seven times more likely to develop diabetes, and those with a BMI ≥35 kg/m² were 63 times more likely to be diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. After adjustment for BMI, neither mild (relative risk = 1.11, 95% confidence interval, 0.89 to 1.37) nor severe (relative risk = 1.39, 95% confidence interval, 0.90 to 2.13) weight cycling predicted risk of diabetes. Discussion: Weight cycling was strongly associated with BMI, but it was not independently predictive of developing type 2 diabetes.     

Genetic susceptibility to non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus and glucose intolerance are located in HLA region.

OBJECTIVES--To test the hypothesis that the genetic susceptibility to non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus is the same as that to insulin dependent disease and to see whether glucose intolerance is associated with specific HLA haplotypes. DESIGN--Population based study of men in 1989 first tested for glucose tolerance in 1984. HLA haplotypes, including HLA-A, C, B, DR, and DQ, were defined serologically. HLA haplotype data from a population based Finnish study of childhood diabetes were used for predicting non-insulin dependent diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance. SETTING--Two communities in Finland. SUBJECTS--Representative cohort of Finnish men aged 70-89, comprising 98 men with non-insulin dependent diabetes mellitus and a randomly selected group of 74 men, who served as controls, who were tested for glucose tolerance twice within five years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Non-insulin dependent diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance, blood glucose concentration. RESULTS--Diabetes associated HLA haplotypes were present in 94% (85/90) of diabetic subjects, 79% (27/34) of subjects with impaired glucose tolerance, and only 13% (3/23) of non-diabetic subjects. In this group of elderly men sensitivity of the diabetes associated HLA haplotypes for non-insulin dependent diabetes and impaired glucose tolerance was 90%, specificity 87%, and predictive power 97%. Mean fasting blood glucose concentration was only just significantly higher in men with diabetes associated haplotypes than in men with no such haplotypes, but there was a substantial difference in blood glucose values two hours after glucose loading (10.4 and 6.4 mmol/l in men with diabetes associated HLA haplotypes and men with no such haplotypes, respectively (p < 0.0001)). CONCLUSIONS--These findings support the hypothesis that specific HLA haplotypes exhibit a common genetic determinant for insulin dependent and non-insulin dependent diabetes. Furthermore, HLA is a major genetic determinant of glucose intolerance in elderly Finnish men. The belief that the HLA predisposition to diabetes is specific for insulin dependent diabetes mellitus is largely incorrect.     

A Prospective Study of Alcohol Consumption and Smoking and the Risk of Major Gastrointestinal Bleeding in Men

MethodsWe prospectively studied 48,000 men in the Health Professional follow-up Study (HPFS) who were aged 40–75 years at baseline in 1986. We identified men with major GIB requiring hospitalization and/or blood transfusion via biennial questionnaires and chart review.ResultsWe documented 305 episodes of major GIB during 26 years of follow-up. Men who consumed >30 g/day of alcohol had a multivariable relative risk (RR) of 1.43 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.88–2.35; P for trend 0.006) for major GIB when compared with nondrinkers. Alcohol consumption appeared to be primarily related to upper GIB (multivariable RR for >30 g/day vs. nondrinkers was 1.35; 95% CI, 0.66–2.77; P for trend 0.02). Men who consumed ≥ 5 drinks/week vs. < 1 drink/month of liquor had a multivariable RR of 1.72 (95% CI, 1.26–2.35, P for trend <0.001). Wine and beer were not significantly associated with major GIB. The risk of GIB associated with NSAIDs/aspirin use increased with greater alcohol consumption (multivariable RR 1.37; 95% CI, 0.85–2.19 for 1-14g/day of alcohol, RR 1.75; 95% CI, 1.07–2.88 for ≥ 15g/day compared to nondrinkers). Smoking was not significantly associated with GIB.ConclusionsAlcohol consumption, but not smoking, was associated with an increased risk of major GIB. Associations were most notable for upper GIB associated with liquor intake. Alcohol appeared to potentiate the risk of NSAID-associated GIB.     

Risk of cancer in relation to serum concentrations of selenium and vitamins A and E: matched case-control analysis of prospective data.

The independent and joint associations of serum selenium and vitamin A (retinol) and E (alpha tocopherol) concentrations with the risk of death from cancer were studied in 51 case-control pairs--that is, 51 patients with cancer, each paired with a control matched for age, sex, and smoking. Case-control pairs came from a random sample of some 12000 people aged 30-64 years resident in two provinces of eastern Finland who were followed up for four years. Patients who died of cancer during the follow up period had a 12% lower mean serum selenium concentration (p = 0.015) than the controls. The difference persisted when deaths from cancer in the first follow up year were excluded. The adjusted risk of fatal cancer was 5.8-fold (95% confidence interval 1.2-29.0) among subjects in the lowest tertile of selenium concentrations compared with those with higher values. Subjects with both low selenium and low alpha tocopherol concentrations in serum had an 11.4-fold adjusted risk. Among smoking men with cancer serum retinol concentrations were 26% lower than in smoking controls (p = 0.002). These data suggest that dietary selenium deficiency is associated with an increased risk of fatal cancer, that low vitamin E intake may enhance this effect, and that decreased vitamin or provitamin A intake contributes to the risk of lung cancer among smoking men with a low selenium intake.     

Cardiovascular Disease Risk of Abdominal Obesity vs. Metabolic Abnormalities

It remains unclear whether abdominal obesity increases cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk independent of the metabolic abnormalities that often accompany it. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the independent effects of abdominal obesity vs. metabolic syndrome and diabetes on the risk for incident coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. The Framingham Offspring, Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities, and Cardiovascular Health studies were pooled to assess the independent effects of abdominal obesity (waist circumference >102 cm for men and >88 cm for women) vs. metabolic syndrome (excluding the waist circumference criterion) and diabetes on risk for incident CHD and stroke in 20,298 men and women aged ≥45 years. The average follow‐up was 8.3 (s.d. 1.9) years. There were 1,766 CVD events. After adjustment for demographic factors, smoking, alcohol intake, number of metabolic syndrome components, and diabetes, abdominal obesity was not significantly associated with an increased risk of CVD (hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval): 1.09 (0.98, 1.20)). However, after adjustment for demographics, smoking, alcohol intake, and abdominal obesity, having 1–2 metabolic syndrome components, the metabolic syndrome and diabetes were each associated with a significantly increased risk of CVD (2.12 (1.80, 2.50), 2.82 (1.92, 4.12), and 5.33 (3.37, 8.41), respectively). Although abdominal obesity is an important clinical tool for identification of individuals likely to possess metabolic abnormalities, these data suggest that the metabolic syndrome and diabetes are considerably more important prognostic indicators of CVD risk.     

Nut consumption and weight gain in a Mediterranean cohort: The SUN study

Objective: To assess the association, in a Mediterranean population, between nut consumption and risk of weight gain (at least 5 kg) or the risk of becoming overweight/obese. Research Methods and Procedures: The Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra project is a prospective cohort of 8865 adult men and women who completed a follow‐up questionnaire after a median of 28 months. Dietary habits were assessed with a previously validated semiquantitative food‐frequency questionnaire. Results: Nine hundred thirty‐seven participants reported a weight gain of ≥5 kg at follow‐up. After adjusting for age, sex, smoking, leisure time physical activity, and other known risk factors for obesity, participants who ate nuts two or more times per week had a significantly lower risk of weight gain (odds ratio: 0.69; 95% confidence interval: 0.53 to 0.90, p for trend = 0.006) than those who never or almost never ate nuts. Participants with little nut consumption (never/almost never) gained an average of 424 grams (95% confidence interval: 102 to 746) more than frequent nut eaters. Nut consumption was not significantly associated with incident overweight/obesity in the cohort. Discussion: Frequent nut consumption was associated with a reduced risk of weight gain (5 kg or more). These results support the recommendation of nut consumption as an important component of a cardioprotective diet and also allay fears of possible weight gain.     

Dietary pattern and 20 year mortality in elderly men in Finland,Italy, and The Netherlands: longitudinal cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of dietary pattern and mortality in international data. DESIGN: Cohort study with 20 years'' follow up of mortality. SETTING: Five cohorts in Finland, the Netherlands, and Italy. SUBJECTS: Population based random sample of 3045 men aged 50-70 years in 1970. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Food intake was estimated using a cross check dietary history. In this dietary survey method, the usual food consumption pattern in the 6-12 months is estimated. A healthy diet indicator was calculated for the dietary pattern, using the World Health Organisation''s guidelines for the prevention of chronic diseases. Vital status was verified after 20 years of follow up, and death rates were calculated. RESULTS: Dietary intake varied greatly in 1970 between the three countries. In Finland and the Netherlands the intake of saturated fatty acids and cholesterol was high and the intake of alcohol was low; in Italy the opposite was observed. In total 1796 men (59%) died during 20 years of follow up. The healthy diet indicator was inversely associated with mortality (P for trend < 0.05). After adjustment for age, smoking, and alcohol consumption, the relative risk in the group with the healthiest diet indicator compared with the group with the least healthy was 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.77 to 0.98). Estimated relative risks were essentially similar within each country. CONCLUSIONS: Dietary intake of men aged 50-70 is associated with a 20 year, all cause mortality in different cultures. The healthy diet indicator is useful in evaluating the relation of mortality to dietary patterns.     

Dietary Intake of Whole and Refined Grain Breakfast Cereals and Weight Gain in Men

Objective: Prospective studies have suggested that substituting whole grain for refined grain products may lower the risk of overweight and obesity. Breakfast cereal intake is a major source of whole and refined grains and has also been associated with having a lower BMI. The aim of this study was to prospectively assess the association between whole and refined grain breakfast cereal intakes and risk of overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m²) and weight gain. Research Methods and Procedures: We examined 17, 881 U.S. male physicians 40 to 84 years of age in 1982 who were free of cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, and cancer at baseline and reported measures of breakfast cereal intake, weight, and height. Results: Over 8 and 13 years of follow‐up, respectively, men who consumed breakfast cereal, regardless of type, consistently weighed less than those who consumed breakfast cereals less often (p value for trend = 0.01). Whole and refined grain breakfast cereal intake was inversely associated with body weight gain over 8 years, after adjustment for age, smoking, baseline BMI, alcohol intake, physical activity, hypertension, high cholesterol, and use of multivitamins. Compared with men who rarely or never consumed breakfast cereals, those who consumed ≥1 serving/d of breakfast cereals were 22% and 12% less likely to become overweight during follow‐up periods of 8 and 13 years (relative risk, 0.78 and 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.67 to 0.91 and 0.76 to 1.00, respectively). Discussion: BMI and weight gain were inversely associated with intake of breakfast cereals, independently of other risk factors.